From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 1 08:51:12 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:51:12 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, September 1st, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, September 1st, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 7:00pm. Preparatory burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 2:00pm with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from 12:00pm until 5:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: An upper-level trough of low pressure is centered about 650 miles off the Oregon Coast this morning and is producing southerly flow aloft over Oregon and Washington. A weak disturbance in the southerly flow brought a few showers and a couple of thundershowers to western Oregon Monday night. Sections of the Willamette Valley received from a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch of rain overnight. The Aurora Airport was the wettest spot I could find...picking up .08 inches. The main area of clouds and showers was rotating northward, into western Washington, at mid-morning, with satellite imagery showing areas of clearing across western Oregon. Some marine low clouds managed to penetrate into the southern Willamette Valley this morning, but the unstable southerly flow aloft was helping to break up the low clouds along the coast. Daytime heating will break up the low clouds in the south valley but may also trigger a shower or two. Under partly sunny skies, coastal temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 60s, with valley highs near 80. After seeing maximum mixing heights around 3500 feet Monday, some cooling aloft should help mixing heights climb to around 4500 feet this afternoon. Transport winds are forecast to have more of a westerly component this afternoon, which may allow for limited open burning. Note that open burning opportunities freqently do not develop with southerly flow aloft, for a variety of reasons...including weak gradients, lower than expected mixing heights, and too much southerly component to the transport winds, not to mention the threat of showers or even a thunderstorm. The weather will need to be monitored closely this afternoon. Surface Winds: Var 5 this morning, NW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 4 this morning, W 7 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4500 feet. Ventilation index 32. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 80. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 12pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 35%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:49pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:36am. Extended Outlook: The offshore trough will slowly approach the coastline Wednesday...increasing the south-southwesterly flow aloft over Washington and Oregon. Skies should remain partly sunny, but increasing onshore flow and cooling aloft will make for lower temperatures. Transport winds are forecast to become favorable for open burning Wednesday afternoon, so that will need to be closely monitored. The trough is forecast to come onshore late Wednesday and early Thursday...bringing a chance of showers to mainly western Washington and extreme northwestern Oregon. It appears that the best chance of showers in the Willamette Valley will be from about Salem north. Rainfall amounts should be less than one-tenth of an inch, with much of the valley likely receiving little to no rain. Some clearing is expected Thursday afternoon, as a transitory ridge moves over the region. Further cooling aloft, and more of a westerly component to the upper-level flow, may combine to create a burning opportunity Thursday afternoon. The next system appears stronger and is forecast to come onshore late Friday. It appears likely that this system will be strong enough to bring rain to the entire Willamette Valley Friday night and Satruday. The latest computer guidance has delayed the timing of this system until Friday night, which could create yet another burning opportunity Friday afternoon, but that is still too too far out to see clearly. A cool upper-level trough is still forecast to swing onshore, with cool and showery conditions, late Saturday and Sunday. Dry weather is forecast for Labor Day, by most of the computer models, with a ridge of high pressure building back over the region. Tomorrow (02 Sep): Areas of AM Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 54/82 Thu (03 Sep): Chance of AM Showers North...Partly Cloudy in the Afternoon. 54/77 Fri (04 Sep): Increasing Clouds. Rain Likely Late. 53/78 Sat (05 Sep): Rain Turning to Showers. Much Cooler. 54/70 Sun (06 Sep): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Chance of Showers. 51/70 Labor Day (07 Sep): Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. 49/77 Tue (08 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 51/82 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 2 09:02:53 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 02 Sep 2009 11:02:53 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 2:00pm with a 100 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from 12:00pm until 5:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level low-pressure system was centered about 550 miles west of the southern Oregon Coast this morning. The main cloud-shield associated with this system was offshore, but it was increasing the south-southwesterly flow aloft over Washington and Oregon this morning. Satellite imagery showed considerable high clouds across Oregon, but there was an absence of marine low clouds along the coast and in the western valleys. The ODA surface analysis showed flat pressure gradients across western Oregon, and winds were calm over most of the region. That led to areas of shallow fog this morning both in the Willamette Valley and along the coast. The offshore upper-level trough will slowly approach the coastline today...further increasing the south-southwesterly flow aloft. A full day of filtered sunshine should warm valley temperatures into the low 80s...pushing mixing heights above 4000 feet by mid-afternoon. If transport winds are not too strong or southerly, that could create an open burning opportunity...especially for the south valley. Surface Winds: SW 0-5 this morning, SW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 4 this morning, SSW 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 60. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 82. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 11am. Minimum relative humidity will be near 34%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:47pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:37am. Extended Outlook: The trough is forecast to come onshore late tonight and early Thursday...bringing a chance of showers to mainly western Washington and extreme northwestern Oregon. It appears that the best chance of showers in the Willamette Valley will be from about Salem north. Rainfall amounts should be less than one-tenth of an inch, with most of the valley likely receiving little to no rain. Skies should clear Thursday afternoon, as a transitory ridge moves over the region, but temperatures will cool to slightly below normal. Southwesterly flow aloft may create a burning opportunity Thursday afternoon, if there is not too much gradient-stacking. The next system is forecast to be much stronger and will likely come onshore Friday night and Satruday. It should bring at least one-tenth of an inch of rain to the entire Willamette Valley Saturday, and perhaps more. The timing of this system could create a burning opportunity, Friday afternoon. A cool upper-level trough is forecast to follow the cold front onshore late Saturday through early Monday...maintaining some showers across the region with well below normal temperatures. A return to dry and warmer weather will likely begin Monday (Labor Day) afternoon...perhaps lasting through much of next week. Tomorrow (03 Sep): Chance of AM Showers North...Partly Cloudy in the Afternoon. 54/77 Fri (04 Sep): Increasing Clouds. 53/80 Sat (05 Sep): Rain Turning to Showers. Much Cooler. 54/67 Sun (06 Sep): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Chance of Showers. 51/68 Mon (07 Sep): Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. 49/76 Tue (08 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 51/82 Wed (09 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 52/85 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 3 09:00:54 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:00:54 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is allowed from 11:00am until 2:00pm with a 100 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from 11:00am until 2:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A vigorous upper-level trough of low pressure brought some showers and thundershowers to the extreme northern Willamette Valley overnight. The Portland area picked up about one-tenth of an inch of rain, with thunderstorms, but no rain was reported south of a line from about McMinnville to Aurora. Clouds were breaking up over western Oregon by mid-morning, in the wake of the trough, which was rapidly pushing northeastward across western Washington. Partly cloudy skies are expected today across western Oregon, as the region gets a break between weather systems and continued southwestery flow aloft. The Salem sounding this morning showed brisk southwesterly flow aloft and sigificant cooling since Wednesday afternoon. After reaching the mid 80s Wednesday, Willamette Valleys highs should only climb into the mid to upper 70s today. With the air aloft so cool, that may enable mixing heights to climb to around 6000 feet by mid to late afternoon. Transport winds are forecast to be southwesterly, which would allow for open burning this afternoon, if there is not a gradient-stacking issue. Surface Winds: SW 5-10 this morning, SW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 15 this morning, W 5-12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 6000 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 77. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 10am. Minimum relative humidity will be near 32%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:45pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:38am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast to stall near the coastline Friday, before moving onshore Saturday. It is unlikely that there will be a burning opportunity, ahead of that system, as the flow aloft becomes more southerly. When the cold front finally swings onshore saturday, it should be strong enough to bring rain to all of western Oregon Saturday. Computer models have not been consistent with forecast rainfall amounts, with the latest guidance suggesting that the Willamette Valley will pick up around one-quarter of an inch. The heaviest amounts sould be in the north valley. A cool upper-level trough is forecast to follow the cold front onshore late Saturday through early Monday...maintaining some showers across the region with well below normal temperatures. A return more summer-like weather is expected next week, with a strong ridge of high pressure forecast to build back over the region. Tomorrow (04 Sep): Increasing Clouds. 51/80 Sat (05 Sep): Rain Turning to Showers. Much Cooler. 54/67 Sun (06 Sep): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Showers Likely. 52/65 Mon (07 Sep): Showers Ending...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. 49/74 Tue (08 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 51/82 Wed (09 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 52/85 Thu (10 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 51/79 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 3 09:10:39 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:10:39 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Corrected winds and ventilation index... Issued: Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is allowed from 11:00am until 2:00pm with a 100 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from 11:00am until 2:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A vigorous upper-level trough of low pressure brought some showers and thundershowers to the extreme northern Willamette Valley overnight. The Portland area picked up about one-tenth of an inch of rain, with thunderstorms, but no rain was reported south of a line from about McMinnville to Aurora. Clouds were breaking up over western Oregon by mid-morning, in the wake of the trough, which was rapidly pushing northeastward across western Washington. Partly cloudy skies are expected today across western Oregon, as the region gets a break between weather systems and continued southwestery flow aloft. The Salem sounding this morning showed brisk southwesterly flow aloft and sigificant cooling since Wednesday afternoon. After reaching the mid 80s Wednesday, Willamette Valleys highs should only climb into the mid to upper 70s today. With the air aloft so cool, that may enable mixing heights to climb to around 6000 feet by mid to late afternoon. Transport winds are forecast to be southwesterly, which would allow for open burning this afternoon, if there is not a gradient-stacking issue. Surface Winds: S 5-10 this morning, W 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 15 this morning, SW 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 6000 feet. Ventilation index 90. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 77. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 10am. Minimum relative humidity will be near 32%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:45pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:38am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast to stall near the coastline Friday, before moving onshore Saturday. It is unlikely that there will be a burning opportunity, ahead of that system, as the flow aloft becomes more southerly. When the cold front finally swings onshore saturday, it should be strong enough to bring rain to all of western Oregon Saturday. Computer models have not been consistent with forecast rainfall amounts, with the latest guidance suggesting that the Willamette Valley will pick up around one-quarter of an inch. The heaviest amounts sould be in the north valley. A cool upper-level trough is forecast to follow the cold front onshore late Saturday through early Monday...maintaining some showers across the region with well below normal temperatures. A return more summer-like weather is expected next week, with a strong ridge of high pressure forecast to build back over the region. Tomorrow (04 Sep): Increasing Clouds. 51/80 Sat (05 Sep): Rain Turning to Showers. Much Cooler. 54/67 Sun (06 Sep): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Showers Likely. 52/65 Mon (07 Sep): Showers Ending...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. 49/74 Tue (08 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 51/82 Wed (09 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 52/85 Thu (10 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 51/79 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 3 11:38:33 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:38:33 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. MIDDAY UPDATE Issued: Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 at 11:35am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is allowed from now until 2:00pm with a 100 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from now until 2:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A vigorous upper-level trough of low pressure brought some showers and thundershowers to the extreme northern Willamette Valley overnight. The Portland area picked up about one-tenth of an inch of rain, with thunderstorms, but no rain was reported south of a line from about McMinnville to Aurora. Skies were partly to mostly sunny across western Oregon, late this morning, with the upper-level trough moving northeastward across northwestern Washington. The Salem sounding this morning showed brisk southwesterly flow aloft and sigificant cooling since Wednesday afternoon. Late-morning temperature were in the mid 60s along the coast and upper 60s to low 70s across the Willamette Valley. Surface heating was already leading to cumulus cloud developement, with cloud-bases between 3000 and 4000 feet. That is a good indicator of the current mixing height. The ODA surface analysis showed high pressure and weak southerly gradients over western Oregon. As the inland areas warm up this afternoon, the center of the high pressure area is forecast to move over the coastal waters, which will increase the onshore gradients across western Oregon. It will be cooler today, with Willamette Valleys highs only climbing into the mid to upper 70s. That should be enough heating to lift mixing heights to around 6000 feet by mid to late afternoon. If onshore gradients increase, as forecast, and transport winds are not too southerly, then there should be an opportunity for more open burning this afternoon. Like yesterday, we plan to begin pibal readings at 12:30pm. Surface Winds: S 5-10 mph...becoming W 5-12 mph this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 12 mph this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 6000 feet. Ventilation index 90. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 77. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 32%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:45pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:38am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast to stall near the coastline Friday, before moving onshore Saturday. It is unlikely that there will be a burning opportunity, ahead of that system, as the flow aloft becomes more southerly. When the cold front finally swings onshore saturday, it should be strong enough to bring rain to all of western Oregon Saturday. Computer models have not been consistent with forecast rainfall amounts, with the latest guidance suggesting that the Willamette Valley will pick up around one-quarter of an inch. The heaviest amounts sould be in the north valley. A cool upper-level trough is forecast to follow the cold front onshore late Saturday through Monday...maintaining some showers across the region with well below normal temperatures. A return more summer-like weather is expected after the holiday weekend. Temperatures should recover to near-normal on Tuesday. Highs may approach 90 degrees by next Thursday, as a stong ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. Transport winds are forecast to turn offshore next week, which may allow for burning of fields on the extreme west side of the valley. Tomorrow (04 Sep): Increasing Clouds. 51/80 Sat (05 Sep): Rain Turning to Showers. Much Cooler. 54/67 Sun (06 Sep): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Showers Likely. 52/65 Mon (07 Sep): Showers Ending...Afternoon Clearing. 49/74 Tue (08 Sep): Mostly Sunny...Warming Back to Normal. 48/80 Wed (09 Sep): Sunny and Warm. 52/85 Thu (10 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. 53/88 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 4 08:57:37 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 04 Sep 2009 10:57:37 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, September 4th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, September 4th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A weakening cold front will stall along the coastline today...bringing lots of clouds to western Oregon, but little to no rainfall. Doppler radar showed possible sprinkles or very light showers over the central coast and coastal range at mid-morning...moving northeastward into the northern Willamette Valley. Hillsboro reported some sprinkles earlier this morning, but they didn\'t amount to much. The ODA surface analysis showed very weak pressure gradients across the state, with winds less than 10 mph statewide. Much of the Willamette Valley was calm. Mid-morning temperatures were in the low to mid 50s along the coast and mid 50s to low 60s in the Willamette Valley. Warming aloft and increased cloud-cover will combine to keep mixing heights below 3000 feet for most, if not all, of the day. In addition, transport winds will be very light, making for poor ventilation conditions. The high temperature forecast is tricky, because the warm air aloft supports 80-degree heat at the surface. However, considerable clouds will block the sun, at times, so highs will likely only climb into the mid 70s. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, NW 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 3 this morning, NW 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2700 feet. Ventilation index 14. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 76. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 11am. Minimum relative humidity will be near 36%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:43pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:39am. Extended Outlook: A strong cold front is forecast to slowly sweep inland and across western Oregon Saturday. The latest computer guidance indicates that this system will likely drop from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of rain across the Willamette Valley, with the greatest amounts in the north. The coast and coast range may more than one-half inch of rain...especially north. An unseasonably cool upper-level trough is forecast to follow the cold front onshore late Saturday through Monday...maintaining some showers across the region with well below normal temperatures. It appears that the heaviest shower acitivity will move inland across western Washington, but the Willamette Valley could pick up another one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of rain...especially north. A building ridge of high pressure will bring a return of more summer-like weather after the holiday weekend. Temperatures should recover to near-normal on Tuesday. Highs may climb back into the 90s by the end of the week. Transport winds are forecast to turn offshore next week, which may allow for burning of fields on the extreme west side of the valley, after they have had a chance to dry. Tomorrow (05 Sep): Rain Turning to Showers Late. Much Cooler. 54/67 Sun (06 Sep): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Showers Likely. 52/65 Mon (07 Sep): Showers Ending...Afternoon Clearing. 49/74 Tue (08 Sep): Mostly Sunny...Warming Back to Normal. 48/79 Wed (09 Sep): Sunny and Warm. 50/83 Thu (10 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. 53/88 Fri (11 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. 55/92 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 8 09:08:48 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 08 Sep 2009 11:08:48 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, September 8th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, September 8th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 1:00pm until 6:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Saturday and Sunday were very cool and wet, across western Oregon. More than one-half inch of rain fell over much of the Willamette Valley, and high temperatures only reached the mid to upper 60s. Labor Day brought drying and warming to the region, with some afternoon sunshine helping Willamette Valley highs recover into the low 70s. A weak and transitory upper-level ridge of high pressure was over western Oregon this morning and will slide eastward, across the state, this afternoon. Satellite imagery showed patchy areas of fog and low clouds in the Willamette Valley at mid-morning with mostly clear skies over the remainder of Oregon. The clear skies made for cool temperatures this morning, with valley locations dipping well down into the 40s. Hillsboro recorded a minimum of just 42 degrees. Mostly sunny skies will prevail statewide this afternoon, with Willmate Valley highs climbing to near-normal (upper 70s). Forecast northeasterly transport winds may allow for limited open burning of extreme western valley fields, late this morning, if fields are dry enough. Open burning is unlikely this afternoon, due to damp fields and forecast light northerly transport winds. Surface Winds: NE 0-5 this morning, N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 8 this morning, N 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 28. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 78. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 12pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 27%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:36pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:44am. Extended Outlook: A weak weater system is forecast to move across southern British Columbia Wednesday, with the trailing cold front likely bringing some light rain to western Washington and a chance of rain to northwestern Oregon. Skies should begin clearing Wednesday evening, with a rapidly building ridge of high pressure bringing a return of summer-like weather during the second half of the week. A building surface thermal trough should turn low-level winds offshore by Friday, which could push valley highs into the low 90s. Northeasterly transport winds may provide an opportunity to burn western valley fields. As the upper-level ridge begins sliding east of the state this weekend, southerly flow aloft will increase. The surafce thermal trough is forecast to shift east of the Cascades, with increasing onshore flow cooling temperatures back closer to normal. Wed (09 Sep): Partly Cloudy South. Mostly Cloudy North with a Slight Chance of Rain. 49/77 Thu (10 Sep): AM Clouds...Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. North Winds. 51/85 Fri (11 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. 55/92 Sat (12 Sep): Sunny. 54/88 Sun (13 Sep): Mostly Sunny. 55/82 Mon (14 Sep): Mostly Sunny. 54/80 Tue (15 Sep): Mostly Sunny. 53/80 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 8 09:21:31 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 08 Sep 2009 11:21:31 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, September 8th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, September 8th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 1:00pm until 6:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Saturday and Sunday were very cool and wet, across western Oregon. More than one-half inch of rain fell over much of the Willamette Valley, and high temperatures only reached the mid to upper 60s. Labor Day brought drying and warming to the region, with some afternoon sunshine helping Willamette Valley highs recover into the low 70s. A weak and transitory upper-level ridge of high pressure was over western Oregon this morning and will slide eastward, across the state, this afternoon. Satellite imagery showed patchy areas of fog and low clouds in the Willamette Valley at mid-morning with mostly clear skies over the remainder of Oregon. The clear skies made for cool temperatures this morning, with valley locations dipping well down into the 40s. Hillsboro recorded a minimum of just 42 degrees. Mostly sunny skies will prevail statewide this afternoon, with Willmate Valley highs climbing to near-normal (upper 70s). Forecast northeasterly transport winds may allow for limited open burning of extreme western valley fields, late this morning, if fields are dry enough. Open burning is unlikely this afternoon, due to damp fields and forecast light northerly transport winds. Surface Winds: NE 0-5 this morning, N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 8 this morning, N 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 28. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 78. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 12pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 27%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:36pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:44am. Extended Outlook: A weak weater system is forecast to move across southern British Columbia Wednesday, with the trailing cold front likely bringing some light rain to western Washington and a chance of rain to northwestern Oregon. Skies should begin clearing Wednesday evening, with a rapidly building ridge of high pressure bringing a return of summer-like weather during the second half of the week. A building surface thermal trough should turn low-level winds offshore by Friday, which could push valley highs into the low 90s. Northeasterly transport winds may provide an opportunity to burn western valley fields. As the upper-level ridge begins sliding east of the state this weekend, southerly flow aloft will increase. The surafce thermal trough is forecast to shift east of the Cascades, with increasing onshore flow cooling temperatures back closer to normal. Wed (09 Sep): Partly Cloudy South. Mostly Cloudy North with a Slight Chance of Rain. 49/77 Thu (10 Sep): AM Clouds...Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. North Winds. 51/85 Fri (11 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. 55/92 Sat (12 Sep): Sunny. 54/88 Sun (13 Sep): Mostly Sunny. 55/82 Mon (14 Sep): Mostly Sunny. 54/80 Tue (15 Sep): Mostly Sunny. 53/80 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 9 08:50:08 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 09 Sep 2009 10:50:08 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, September 9th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, September 9th, 2009 at 8:50am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A weak cold front was about 150 miles offshore at mid-morning and will move inland this afternoon...mainly into western Washington. Satellite imgery showed clouds had already spread across all of Washington and most of Oregon this morning. Some light rain fell this morning across northwestern Washington, but conditions have remained dry, so far, south of about Olympia. The weakening cold front will keep lots of clouds over western Oregon today, with some sprinkles possible in the extreme north valley this afternoon. Temperatures were warmer across western Oregon this morning, due to the increase in cloud-cover overnight. Willamette Valley minimums were mostly near 50 degrees. Under mostly cloudy skies, Willamette Valley high temperatures should climb into the mid 70s this afternoon, which would likely be warm enough to lift mixing heights above 3000 feet. Forecast west-southwesterly transport winds may provide good ventilation for open burning this afternoon. Damp fields will require fluffing, before being burned this afternoon. Surface Winds: SE 5-10 this morning, SW 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSE 7 this morning, WSW 7 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 35. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 77. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 2pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 47%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:34pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:45am. Extended Outlook: A rapidly building ridge of high pressure will bring a return of summer-like weather, beginning Thursday afternoon. A surface thermal trough should build northward, along the Oregon Coast, turning the low-level winds offshore. That could provide an opportunity to burn western valley fields as soon as Thursday morning. As the thermal trough strengthens over western Oregon Friday and Saturday, downsloping winds, off the Cascades, may warm valley temperatures over the 90-degree mark. The upper-level ridge, and associated surface thermal trough, are forecast to shift east of the state by Sunday, with increasing southerly flow aloft. Increasing onshore flow will initiate a cooling trend Sunday, with temperatures dropping back closer to normal. Increasing southerly flow aloft will introduce a chance of thunderstorms, mainly over the Cascades, Sunday and Monday. A weak cold front is forecast to come onshore until about Wednesday of next week. Thu (10 Sep): AM Clouds...Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. NNE Winds Developing. 53/85 Fri (11 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. NE Winds. 53/92 Sat (12 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Light Winds. 55/90 Sun (13 Sep): Mostly Sunny. Chance of T-Storms near the Cascades. 55/84 Mon (14 Sep): Mostly Sunny. Slight Chance of T-Storms near the Cascades. 54/80 Tue (15 Sep): Mostly Sunny. 53/80 Wed (16 Sep): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 53/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 10 09:01:24 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2009 11:01:24 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, September 10th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, September 10th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level ridge of high pressure will begin building over the region today and last into the weekend. Visible satellite imagery showed low clouds covering much of the Willamette Valley this morning with areas of fog along the coast. Skies were sunny over the remainder of the state. The areas of morning fog and low clouds will give way to sunshine this aftenoon. Warming aloft will allow Willamette Valley highs to climb into the low to mid 80s but also keep mixing heights below 3000 feet today. North-northeasterly transport winds may allow for limited open burning, on the extreme west side of the valley, around midday. Surface Winds: N 5-10 this morning, N 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 10 this morning, N 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 86. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 31%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:46am. Extended Outlook: With a strong upper-level ridge anchored over the region Friday and Saturday, the surface thermal trough will strengthen over western Oregon. Downsloping northeasterly winds, off the Cascades, may warm valley temperatures over the 90-degree mark under sunny skies. The upper-level ridge, and associated surface thermal trough, are forecast to shift east of the state by late Saturday, with increasing southerly flow aloft. That will introduce some mid and high-level moisture into the state and enough instability for an increasing chance of thundershowers...mainly south and over the Cascades. Increasing onshore flow will initiate a cooling trend Sunday, with temperatures dropping back to near-normal. The flow aloft is forecast to become more westerly by Monday, which would push the thunderstrom threat well east of the region but maintain a cooling onshore flow. There may be a little warming Tuesday, ahead of a cold front forecast to come onshore Wednesday. Tomorrow (11 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. NE Winds. 53/92 Sat (12 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Light Winds. 55/90 Sun (13 Sep): Partly Cloudy. Chance of T-Storms...Mainly South & near the Cascades. 55/77 Mon (14 Sep): Partly Sunny. 54/73 Tue (15 Sep): Mostly Sunny. 53/77 Wed (16 Sep): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 53/74 Thu (17 Sep): AM Clouds...Partly Sunny. 52/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 11 09:00:20 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2009 11:00:20 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, September 11th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, September 11th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will bring near-record high temperatures to western Oregon today. The ODA surface analysis showed a broad thermal trough had built northward along the length of the Oregon Coast with high pressure centered over northeastern Oregon. That was bringing offshore flow to all of western Oregon, except for along the immediate south coast. Satellite imagery showed low clouds and fog hugging the extreme south coast, with clear skies over the remainder of the state. Mid-morning temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to the mid 60s across most of western Oregon with light surface winds. Troutdale was the exception, where downsloping easterly winds, gusting over 25 mph, had already warmed temperatures into the low 70s...an indication of very warm air aloft. Willamette Valley highs should climb at least into the low 90s this afternoon, with the mid 90s possible, due to the warmth of the air aloft. Mixing heights should stay below 3000 feet today. Offshore flow will likely push temperatures well into the 80s, even along the northern and central coastal strip. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 4 this morning, SSW 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2700 feet. Ventilation index 14. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 92. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 11am. Minimum relative humidity will be near 23%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:30pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:48am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward, to over Idaho, Saturday, with increasing southerly flow aloft over western Oregon. The surface thermal trough will likely move inland early in the day and eastward, into Central Oregon, by Saturday evening. Increasing onshore flow will bring significant cooling to the coast and likely cool high temperatures a few degrees across the Willamette Valley. The southerly flow aloft will also introduce some mid and high-level moisture into the southern third of the state, with a chance of late-day thunderstorms...mainly over the mountains. Increasing onshore flow will bring more cooling to the interior of western Oregon Sunday, with temperatures dropping back to near-normal. Southerly flow aloft will maintain a chance of late-day thunderstorms...mainly over the Cascades. The flow aloft is forecast to turn southwesterly Monday, as an upper-level trough swings onshore into northern California. That would stabilize the air mass across western Oregon, with the thunderstrom threat shifting eastward into central and eastern Oregon. Onshore flow will maintain seasonably cool temperatures, but the chances for any rain are slim. The upper-level ridge is forecast to reamplify over the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with a weakening cold front possibly bringing some light showers to the region Thursday. A split-flow jet stream pattern is forecast for Friday, yielding dry conditions, weak onshore flow, and seasonal temperatures. Tomorrow (12 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Light Winds. 55/90 Sun (13 Sep): Partly Cloudy. Chance of T-Storms...Mainly South & near the Cascades. 55/79 Mon (14 Sep): Partly Sunny. 54/77 Tue (15 Sep): Mostly Sunny & Warmer. 54/85 Wed (16 Sep): Mostly Sunny...Increasing Clouds Late. 54/80 Thu (17 Sep): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Showers. 53/74 Fri (18 Sep): Becoming Mostly Sunny. 52/78 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 14 08:59:05 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:59:05 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, September 14th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, September 14th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is allowed from 12:00pm until 5:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Southerly flow aloft brought lots of clouds and some light showers to western Oregon overnight. Some sections of the Willamette Valley picked up a couple of hundredths of an inch of rain in the pre-dawn hours this morning. An upper-level trough will swing across northern California...into Nevada today. The southerly flow aloft will slowly become more southwesterly and begin to dry out. Visible satellite imagery showed considerable clouds over the northern and central WIllamette Valley at mid-morning with mostly clear skies along much of the coast and over southwestern Oregon. Skies should gradually clear this afternoon over the Willamette Valley. Cool air aloft will keep high temperatures from climbing above the mid 70s, with the warmest readings likely in the sotuh valley. Daytime heating should lift mixing heights to around 4000 feet by late this afternoon. Southerly transport winds this morning are forecast to become southwesterly by late this afternoon, which may allow for limited open burning. Surface Winds: SE 5-10 this morning, SSW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 8 this morning, SW 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 40. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 74. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 51%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:24pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:51am. Extended Outlook: A transitory upper-level ridge is forecast to move over the region Tuesday and then east of the region with increasing southerly flow aloft Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move onshore Wednesday night...possibly bringing some light showers as far south and east as the Willamette Valley. A weak westerly flow aloft is forecast for Thursday, which should allow for some clearing in the afternoon. Another weak cold front is forecast to push mainly north of the region Friday night and Saturday. It does not appear as if this system will be strong enough to bring any precipitation as far south as the Willamette Valley, but it bring enough onshore flow to produce some clouds with seasonal temperatures. A stronger upper-level ridge is forecast to warm temperatures well above normal by early next week. Tomorrow (15 Sep): Mostly Sunny & Warmer. 54/85 Wed (16 Sep): Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. Chance of Showers Late. 55/78 Thu (17 Sep): Mostly Cloudy AM...Afternoon Clearing. 54/77 Fri (18 Sep): Mostly Sunny. 52/80 Sat (19 Sep): Partly Cloudy. 54/77 Sun (20 Sep): Sunny and Warmer. 54/85 Mon (21 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. 55/90 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 15 09:02:13 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:02:13 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, September 15th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, September 15th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 2:00pm until 5:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is allowed from 2:00pm until 5:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 2:00pm until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the region today, bringing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures to the Willamette Valley. Satellite imagery showed a band of clouds, moving northward, from the north coast across much of the Willamette Valley. Skies were mostly sunny in it\'s wake. The air aloft was still quite cool this morning but will warm during the day, helping temperatures climb into the mid 80s this afternoon. Forecast southeasterly transport winds may allow for the burning of western valley fields around midday. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, SSE 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSE 6 this morning, SSW 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 40. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 84. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 12pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 33%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:22pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:52am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge is forecast shift east of the region Wednesday with increasing southerly flow aloft. A cold front is forecast to move onshore Wednesday afternoon. Depending on the timing of cold front, it could create a burning opportunity, for remaining central and eastern valley fields, Wednesday afternoon. Some light rain is likely over much of the Willamette Valley by Wednesday evening...especially north. Total rainfall amounts are forecast to be around one-tenth of an inch or less with the rain quickly tapering off Thursday morning. Some clearing is likely by Thursday afternoon with near-normal temperatures. A very weak and transitory ridge will warm temperatures a few degrees Friday. Another weak cold front is forecast to come onshore Friday night and Saturday, with most of the rain staying north of the state. Some very light rain is possible, mainly in the north valley, Saturday morning, with skies beginning to clear by Saturday evening. All of the long-range computer models are showing a strong upper-level ridge building over the west coast, beginning Sunday, with offshore flow, sunshine, and quite warm temperatures on tap for much of next week. Tomorrow (16 Sep): Becoming Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Rain PM. 55/78 Thu (17 Sep): Mostly Cloudy AM...Afternoon Clearing. 55/77 Fri (18 Sep): Mostly Sunny. Increasing Clouds Late. 51/81 Sat (19 Sep): Chance of AM Rain...Mainly North. Clearing by Evening. 54/75 Sun (20 Sep): Sunny and Warmer. 50/83 Mon (21 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. 54/90 Tue (22 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. 54/90 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 16 08:52:45 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2009 10:52:45 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, September 16th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, September 16th, 2009 at 8:50am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 5:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is allowed from 11:00am until 2:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: A narrow cold front was spreading clouds onto the Washington and Oregon coastlines, at mid-morning, with Doppler radar showing a band of light to moderate rain just offshore. Skies were mostly sunny over the interior of both states. The cold front will continue to weaken, as it slowly moves onshore this morning. After seeing morning minimums mostly in the low to mid 50s, Willamette Valley temperatures had recovered into the upper 50s and low 60s, by mid-morning, under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase, from west to east, across the Willamette Valley late this morning. Some light rain will likely spread across the valley during the afternoon, but rainfall amounts should only range from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Temperatures will likely climb into the mid 70s, early this afternoon, before cooling in response to the cold front during the late afternoon. Increasing southerly winds this morning will veer to west-southwesterly by late this afternoon. If the cold front comes onshore slowly enough, and transport winds are not too southerly, ahead of it, ventilation conditions could possibly allow for open burning early this afternoon. However, there are no reports of any fields available and ready for burning at this time. There does not appear to be much instability in the wake of this system, so skies should begin clearing overnight. Surface Winds: S 5-12 this morning, WSW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 15 this morning, SW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 53. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 76. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 50%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:20pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:54am. Extended Outlook: Skies should become at least partly sunny Thursday, after a chance of a morning sprinkle. Weak onshore flow will keep temperatures near-normal (mid 70s). Further warming and drying is likely on Friday. A little stronger cold front is forecast to bring some light rain to the northern Willamette Valley, and a chance of light rain to the south valley, Saturday morning. Showers will quickly taper off, in the wake of the cold front, Saturday evening. All of the long-range computer models are still showing a strong upper-level ridge building over the west coast, beginning Sunday. Increasing offshore flow will likely combine with sunny skies and warming aloft to send surface temperatures well above normal by early next week. Summer officially ends next Tuesday afternoon, but the warm and dry weather is forecast to continue through most, if not all, of next week. Tomorrow (17 Sep): Chance of an AM Sprinkle...Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 53/76 Fri (18 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 50/83 Sat (19 Sep): AM Rain Likely North...Chance of Rain South. Clearing by Evening. 55/73 Sun (20 Sep): Sunny and Warmer. Offshore Flow Developing. 50/80 Mon (21 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Strong Offshore Flow. 54/90 Tue (22 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Strong Offshore Flow. 54/90 Wed (23 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Light Winds. 53/87 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 17 08:50:11 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2009 10:50:11 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, September 17th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, September 17th, 2009 at 8:50am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 1:00pm until 6:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is allowed from 1:00pm until 6:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A narrow but slow-moving cold front brought light rain to the Willamette Valley Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Most of the valley received between a trace and one-tenth of an inch, with the greatest amounts in the north. As much as one-third of an inch fell in sections of Multnomah County. The cold front continued eastward, across central and eastern Oregon, overnight, with partial clearing west of the Cascades allowing temperatures to drop into the 40s and low 50s. That helped areas of dense fog to form across the Willamette Valley by early this morning. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure centered over western Washington and northwestern Oregon with very weak northerly gradients across the Willamette Valley. High pressure will continue to build over the region today. Areas of morning fog giving way to sunny skies and light northery winds this afternoon. Valley highs should recover into the mid 70s...about normal for mid-September. Surface Winds: N 0-7 this morning, N 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 6 this morning, N 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 35. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 77. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 37%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:18pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:55am. Extended Outlook: Further warming and drying is likely on Friday. Another weather system is forecast to swing mainly into southern British Columbia and Washington Saturday, but the trailing cold front will likely bring some light rain and cooler temperatures to the Willamette Valley. Rainfall amounts could be as little as a few hundredths of an inch in the south valley but should exceed one-tenth of an inch in the north valley. Showers will quickly taper off, in the wake of the cold front, Saturday evening, with areas of fog forming by Sunday morning. A strong upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the west coast next week. Increasing offshore flow will combine with sunny skies to send temperatures well above normal. Tomorrow (18 Sep): Sunny and Warmer. 49/84 Sat (19 Sep): Light Rain Likely...Mainly North. Clearing Late. 55/73 Sun (20 Sep): Areas AM Fog...Becoming Sunny and Warmer. Offshore Flow Developing. 49/80 Mon (21 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Strong Offshore Flow. 52/91 Tue (22 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Strong Offshore Flow. 55/93 Wed (23 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Light Winds. 55/88 Thu (24 Sep): Sunny and Continued Very Warm. North Winds. 52/86 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 18 08:40:03 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2009 10:40:03 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, September 18th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, September 18th, 2009 at 8:40am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 2:00pm until 6:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Straw stack burning is allowed from 2:00pm until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: High pressure, centered over northeastern Oregon, is resulting in a dry offshore flow and clear skies across most of Oregon this morning. There were patchy areas of low clouds and fog along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. Clearing skies allowed temperatures to drop into the mid 40s this morning across much of the Willamette Valley. Warm air aloft, weak offshore flow, and a full day of late-summer sunshine will combine to warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s this afternoon across the Willamette Valley. Light northeasterly winds will back to west-northwesterly late this afternoon, in response to an approaching cold front. Surface Winds: NE 3-8 this morning, WNW 5-10 by late this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 10 this morning, WNW 10 by late this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 35. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 85. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 11am. Minimum relative humidity will be near 29%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:17pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:56am. Extended Outlook: A cold front is forecast to swing onshore Saturday, with the bulk of the rain pushing into southern British Columbia and Washington. Light rain will spread as far south as western Oregon, with the coast likely picking up around one-quarter of and inch and the Willamette Valley around one-tenth of an inch. The greatest totals will be in the north. Showers will quickly taper off, in the wake of the cold front, Saturday evening, with areas of fog forming by Sunday morning. An unseasonably strong upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the west coast next week (the first week of autumn). Increasing offshore flow will combine with sunny skies to send temperatures well above normal. Tuesday through Thursday will likely be the warmest period, with record highs possible in the Willamette Valley. The long-range models do not agree on how long the early autumn heat-wave will last. A cool-down could begin as early as next Friday, with some of the forecast models keeping temperatures very warm through the following weekend. Tomorrow (19 Sep): Light Rain Likely...Mainly North. Clearing Late. 55/72 Sun (20 Sep): Areas AM Fog...Becoming Sunny and Warmer. Offshore Flow Developing. 47/76 Mon (21 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. NE Winds. 52/91 Tue (22 Sep): Sunny. Record Warmth Possible. NE Winds. 54/94 Wed (23 Sep): Sunny. Record Warmth Possible. NE Winds. 55/96 Thu (24 Sep): Sunny and Continued Very Warm. 54/90 Fri (25 Sep): Mostly Sunny...Possibly Turning Cooler. 51/83 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 21 09:00:57 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:00:57 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, September 21st, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...State Fire Marshal Conditions may be met, due to low humidities and wind, this afternoon... Issued: Monday, September 21st, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An unseasonably strong upper-level ridge of high pressure is building over the region today. With the exception of a few high clouds, skies were clear this morning over the entire Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered over northeastern Oregon, with a building thermal trough along the southern Oregon Coast. That was resulting in a very dry offshore flow across western Oregon. East-northeasterly winds were gusting to around 20 mph along the Oregon Coast and through the coastal range passes, with east winds gusting to around 30 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Winds were light in most of the Willamette Valley, away from the Columbia Gorge, due to a strong low-level temperature inversion. However, north-northeasterly winds will increase later this morning, as daytime heating promotes stirring of the air. Warm air aloft, a full day of late-summer sunshine, and down-sloping northeasterly winds will combine to warm Willamette Valley temperatures to well above normal this afternoon. Some locations could see highs in excess of 90 degrees. Low humidities and increasing offshore winds may put much of the valley into State Fire Marshal conditions by early this afternoon. Surface Winds: NE 5-14 this morning, NE 8-18 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 14 this morning, NE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 38. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 91. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 15%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:11pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:00am. Extended Outlook: Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be the warmest days, of this hot spell, in the Willamette Valley. Record high temperatures are possible (mid 90s). The strong upper-level ridge is forecast to shift over Idaho Thursday, with a weak trough moving onto the coastline in the afternoon. Onshore flow should bring significant cooling to western Oregon, with temperatures dropping back close to normal (mid 70s). The upper-level ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region, beginning Friday, with temperatures warming back up again. Tomorrow (22 Sep): Sunny. Record Warmth Possible. NE Winds. 53/95 Wed (23 Sep): Sunny. Record Warmth Possible. NNW Winds. 55/93 Thu (24 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Cooler. Increasing Onshore Flow. 49/77 Fri (25 Sep): Patchy AM Clouds...Sunny. North Winds. 47/83 Sat (26 Sep): Sunny. North Winds. 46/85 Sun (27 Sep): Sunny. North Winds. 47/86 Mon (28 Sep): Sunny. NW Winds. 47/77 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 22 08:42:50 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2009 10:42:50 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009 at 8:50am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Autumn officially begins today at 2:18pm. However, the weather pattern is going to stay in summer mode, with an unseasonably strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remaining over the region. At the surface, a very dry offshore flow was keeping skies mostly cloud-free over Oregon this morning. However, satellite imagery showed smoke, from southern Oregon Cascade wildfires, being directed over the central and southern Willamette Valley and much of the coastline, by southeasterly winds aloft. After recording high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Monday, Willamette Valley minimums this morning ranged from the mid 40s, in the Eugene area, to the mid 50s in the Portland area. At the western end of the Columbia Gorge, strong easterly winds, gusting over 30 mph at Troutdale, held overnight temperatures near 70 degrees. Temperatures east of the Cascades ranged from the low 30s, in Meacham, to the low 50s, in John Day. As the ridge of high pressure slowly shifts eastward, surface winds will likely decrease and turn more southeasterly along the coast and in the Willamette Valley today. The flow may turn onshore along the southern coast this afternoon, bringing significant cooling to that region, which recorded highs Monday in the low 90s. The flow should stay offshore along the north coast today, where highs, once again, should climb well into the 80s. Very warm air aloft will keep mixing heights below 1500 feet most of today, with a maximum mixing height just above the 2000-foot mark late this afternoon. Warm air aloft will combine with mostly sunny skies and down-sloping southeasterly winds to warm Willamette Valley temperatures into the low to mid 90s...perhaps locally reaching record highs. Winds will not be as strong today, especially away from the Columbia Gorge, but sections of the valley could still meet State Fire Marshal Conditions this afternoon. Surface Winds: ESE 5-10 this morning, ESE 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 5 this morning, SE 6 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2200 feet. Ventilation index 13. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 95. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 13%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:09pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:01am. Extended Outlook: The strong upper-level ridge will continue to shift slightly eastward Wednesday, with surface winds turning northwesterly across the valley late in the day. That should bring a few degrees of cooling to the valley, but temperatures will still climb at least into the mid to upper 80s. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift over Idaho Thursday, with a very weak trough moving into southern British Columbia. That should increase the onshore flow and cool temperatures closer to normal across western Oregon. The upper-level ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region, beginning Friday, with well above normal temperatures lasting at least through Sunday. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the coastline late Monday with a chance of precipitation returning to the region about next Tuesday. Tomorrow (23 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. Wind Becoming NW in the Afternoon. 52/89 Thu (24 Sep): Mostly Sunny and Warm. Increasing NW Winds. 50/83 Fri (25 Sep): Patchy AM Clouds...Sunny. Wind Becoming Northerly. 47/84 Sat (26 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. NNE Winds. 48/86 Sun (27 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. NNE Winds. 48/88 Mon (28 Sep): Mostly Sunny but Cooler. Increasing Onshore Flow Late. 49/82 Tue (29 Sep): Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Increasing Chance of Showers. 48/73 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 23 09:13:30 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2009 11:13:30 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Today is the first full day of autumn, but it is still going to feel like mid-summer. The strong upper-level ridge over the region is slowly drifting eastward and is forecast to be centered over Idaho this afternoon. Southeasterly flow aloft spread considerable smoke, from southern Oregon wildfires, over the Willamette Valley Tuesday. The flow aloft will turn more south-southwesterly by this afternoon, which should deflect the smoke from those wildfires east of the Willamette Valley. High temperatures Tuesday ranged from the upper 80s to the mid 90s in the Willamette Valley but stayed just shy of the daily records. Astoria, on the north coast, did set a new daily record Tuesday with a high of 92 degrees. Valley minimums this morning ranged from the mid mid 40s to the mid 50s. The exception, once again, was at the western end of the Columbia Gorge, where brisk easterly winds, gusting over 20 mph, kept temperatures in the 70s most of the night. Troutdale recorded a minimum of 67 degrees. Mid-morning satellite imagery showed smoke, from southern Oregon Cascade wildfires, being directed almost straight northward, over the northern Oregon Cascades, into Washington. Low clouds and fog had moved onto the the southern and central Oregon Coast and were just offshore of the northern Oregon and Washington coastlines. Skies were clear over the remainder of Oregon. The surface thermal trough, which has been just off the Oregon Coast the past couple of days, will move over the Willamette Valley this morning and into central Oregon this afternoon. After seeing highs in the low to mid 90s Tuesday, onshore flow will bring much cooler weather to the northern Oregon Coast today. The Willamette Valley will get a cooling northwesterly wind later this afternoon, but not before temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. Very warm air aloft will keep mixing heights below the 2000-foot mark, over the Willamette Valley, through early this afternoon. Ventilation conditions will likely improve later this afternoon, when the surface thermal trough shifts east of the Cascades. That would possibly provide an open burning opportunity, if any fields become available for burning (we are not aware of any at this time). Surface Winds: SSW 0-6 this morning, NW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 5 this morning, WNW 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 28. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 89. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 11am. Minimum relative humidity will be near 25%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:07pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:02am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift over Idaho Thursday, with a very weak trough moving into southern British Columbia. That should increase the onshore flow and cool temperatures closer to normal across western Oregon. Some morning marine clouds will likely make it into the Willamette Valley, with possible morning drizzle along the coast. The upper-level ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region Friday but not as strongly as earlier this week. Low-level winds should turn more northerly with a full day of sunshine warming valley temperatures a few degrees from Thursday. A weak weather system is forecast to move across southern British Columbia and flatten the upper-level ridge a bit on Saturday. That will incrase the onshore flow and cool temperatures slightly. The ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region Sunday with a thermal trough building northward along the Oregon Coast. That will turn low-level winds offshore and warm temperatures well above normal. The warm-up will be short-lived, however, with a fairly strong upper-level trough forecast by all of the long-range computer models to approach the coastline Monday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will force the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades with increasing onshore flow cooling temperatures back to near-normal. That could be a burning opportunity, if any fields become available for burning. A cold front is forecast to come onshore Monday night...bringing rain and cooler temperatures. It is finally going to feel like autumn next week. Thu (24 Sep): Areas of AM Clouds...Mostly Sunny but Cooler. NW Winds 5-15 mph. 50/78 Fri (25 Sep): Sunny. North Winds. 46/82 Sat (26 Sep): Sunny. A Touch Cooler. NW Winds. 46/78 Sun (27 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. NE Winds. 47/85 Mon (28 Sep): Mostly Sunny but Cooler. Increasing Onshore Flow. 47/75 Tue (29 Sep): Rain Turning to Showers. Cooler. 50/67 Wed (30 Sep): Showers. 45/65 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 23 12:12:13 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:12:13 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: The strong upper-level ridge over the region is slowly drifting eastward and is forecast to be centered over Idaho this afternoon. South-southeasterly flow aloft is continuing to spread considerable smoke, from southern Oregon Cascade wildfires, over the Willamette Valley. There have even been reports of light ashfall. The flow aloft will slowly turn more south-southwesterly later this afternoon, which should begin deflecting the smoke from those wildfires east of the Willamette Valley with improving visibility. Late-morning satellite imagery showed the smoke plumes, from the southern Oregon Cascade wildfires, being directed north-northwestward, over the northern Cascades and the Willamette Valley. Otherwise, skies were clear over inland locations. The low-level winds had turned onshore along the coast, where low clouds and fog had banked up along the coastline. The ODA surface analysis showed the thermal trough, which has been just off the Oregon Coast the past couple of days, had moved over the Willamette Valley. Winds had become light westerly along the coast but were generally light south-southeasterly across much of the Willamette Valley. Coastal temperatures will no likely climb out of the 60s today, and increasing onshore flow will keep Willamette Valley highs from hitting 90. Portland, with a high of 92 degrees, set a record Tuesday with their 24th day of 90+ degree heat this year. The old record was 23 days, set in 1987. Very warm air aloft will keep mixing heights below the 2000-foot mark, over the Willamette Valley, through early this afternoon. Ventilation conditions will likely improve later this afternoon, when the surface thermal trough shifts east of the Cascades. That would possibly provide an open burning opportunity, if any fields were available for burning (we are not aware of any at this time). Surface Winds: SSE to SSW 0-6...becoming NW 5-10 later this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 5 this morning, WNW 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 28. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 89. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 25%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:07pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:02am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift over Idaho Thursday, with a very weak trough moving into southern British Columbia. That should increase the onshore flow and cool temperatures closer to normal across western Oregon. Some morning marine clouds will likely make it into the Willamette Valley, with possible morning drizzle along the coast. The upper-level ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region Friday but not as strongly as earlier this week. Low-level winds should turn more northerly with a full day of sunshine warming valley temperatures a few degrees from Thursday. A weak weather system is forecast to move across southern British Columbia and flatten the upper-level ridge a bit on Saturday. That will incrase the onshore flow and cool temperatures slightly. The ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region Sunday with a thermal trough building northward along the Oregon Coast. That will turn low-level winds offshore and warm temperatures well above normal. The warm-up will be short-lived, however, with a fairly strong upper-level trough forecast by all of the long-range computer models to approach the coastline Monday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will force the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades with increasing onshore flow cooling temperatures back to near-normal. That could be a burning opportunity, if any fields become available for burning. A cold front is forecast to come onshore Monday night...bringing rain and cooler temperatures. It is finally going to feel like autumn next week. Thu (24 Sep): Areas of AM Clouds...Mostly Sunny but Cooler. NW Winds 5-15 mph. 50/78 Fri (25 Sep): Sunny. North Winds. 46/82 Sat (26 Sep): Sunny. A Touch Cooler. NW Winds. 46/78 Sun (27 Sep): Sunny and Very Warm. NE Winds. 47/85 Mon (28 Sep): Mostly Sunny but Cooler. Increasing Onshore Flow. 47/75 Tue (29 Sep): Rain Turning to Showers. Cooler. 50/67 Wed (30 Sep): Showers. 45/65 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 24 08:58:20 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2009 10:58:20 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, September 24th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, September 24th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 2:00pm until 6:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Southeasterly flow aloft spread considerable smoke, from southern Oregon Cascade wildfires, over the Willamette Valley Wednesday. The strong upper-level ridge over the region shifted eastward to over Idaho with onshore flow developing Wednesday evening. That capped Willamette Valley highs in the mid to upper 80s and helped push the wildfire smoke out of the region overnight. Mid-morning visible satellite imagery showed the smoke plumes, from the southern Oregon Cascade wildfires, being directed north-northeastward across the central Cascades, north-central Oregon, and much of eastern Washington. Marine low clouds had penetrated into much of the northern and southern Willamette Valley and were in the process of filling in over the central valley. Skies were mostly clear over the northern Oregon and Washington Cascades and across eastern Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed the surface thermal trough stretching from eastern Washington through central Oregon, with a much cooler onshore flow across the Willamette Valley. The morning sounding over Salem showed considerable cooling, below 10,000 feet, but the air mass over western Oregon is still quite warm for late September. The freezing level was measured at more than 14,000 feet. A dissipating cold front will move onshore today and maintain the onshore flow across western Oregon. It could be just strong enough to produce some localized drizzle along the north coast late this morning, but otherwise dry conditions will persist. Morning low clouds and fog will retard surface heating today...keeping mixing heights below 3000 feet until mid to late afternoon. Ventilation conditions will improve later this afternoon, with increasing northerly surface and transport winds. Valley highs will only climb into the mid to upper 70s today, due to the strong influx of low-level cool marine air. Surface Winds: N 5-10 this morning, N 10-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 10 this morning, N 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3300 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 78. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 40%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:05pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:03am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region Friday but not as strongly as earlier this week. Low-level winds should turn more northerly with a full day of sunshine warming valley temperatures a few degrees from Thursday. A weak weather system is forecast to move across southern British Columbia and flatten the upper-level ridge a bit on Saturday. That will incrase the onshore flow and cool temperatures slightly. The ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region Sunday with a thermal trough building northward along the Oregon Coast. That will turn low-level winds offshore and warm temperatures well above normal. The warm-up will be short-lived, however, with a fairly strong upper-level trough forecast by all of the long-range computer models to approach the coastline Monday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will force the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades with increasing onshore flow cooling temperatures back to near-normal. That could be a burning opportunity, if any fields become available for burning. An autumn-like cold front is forecast to come onshore Monday night with light rain likely by Tuesday morning along with much cooler temperatures. A drier but cool northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for next Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow (25 Sep): Sunny. North Winds. 46/82 Sat (26 Sep): Sunny. A Touch Cooler. NW Winds. 46/78 Sun (27 Sep): Sunny and Warmer. NE Winds. 45/85 Mon (28 Sep): Increasing Clouds and Onshore Flow. Chance of Rain Late. 47/74 Tue (29 Sep): Light Rain Likely Early...Then a Chance of Showers. Cool. 50/65 Wed (30 Sep): Mostly Cloudy AM. Afternoon Clearing. 44/66 Thu (01 Oct): Partly Cloudy. 44/68 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 24 12:13:19 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:13:19 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, September 24th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Not Until Monday, September 28th, 2009 at 9:00am... NOON UPDATE Issued: Thursday, September 24th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 2:00pm until 6:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Southwesterly flow aloft has shifted the smoke plumes, from the southern Oregon Cascade wildfires, eastward to over north-central Oregon today. Late-morning visible satellite imagery showed the smoke plumes being directed northeastward across the central Cascades, north-central Oregon, and eastern Washington. Marine low clouds were beginning to break up across the Willamette Valley with sections of the coastline also starting to get some clearing. Skies were mostly clear over southwestern, south-central, and eastern Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed the surface thermal trough stretching from eastern Washington through central Oregon, with a much cooler northerly flow increasing across the Willamette Valley. North winds had already increased to around 10 mph from Corvallis to Eugene. Temperatures were mostly in the mid 60s from the coast eastward across the Willamette Valley. A dissipating cold front brought some sprinkles to the north coast this morning, with Astoria recording .01 inches. Northerly winds will increase across western Oregon this afternoon, as a very weak upper-level trough moves onshore. Even through the air aloft is still very warm, valley highs will only climb into the mid to upper 70s today, due to the strong influx of low-level cool marine air. That will also keep mixig heights from climbing much above 3000 feet this afternoon. Surface Winds: N 10-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3300 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 78. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 2pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 40%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:05pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:03am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region Friday but not as strongly as earlier this week. Low-level winds should stay northerly with a full day of sunshine warming valley temperatures back into the low 80s. Warm air aloft will make for continued fairly low mixing heights. A weak weather system will slide across southern British Columbia, flattening the upper-level ridge a bit, on Saturday. That will increase the onshore flow and cool temperatures back into the mid to upper 70s. The ridge is forecast to rebuild over the region Sunday with a thermal trough building northward along the Oregon Coast. That will turn low-level winds offshore and warm valley temperatures to as high as the mid 80s. The warm-up will be short-lived, however, with a fairly strong upper-level trough forecast by all of the long-range computer models to approach the coastline Monday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will force the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades with increasing onshore flow cooling temperatures back to near-normal. That could be a burning opportunity, if any fields become available for burning. An autumn-like cold front is forecast to come onshore Monday night with light rain likely by Tuesday morning along with much cooler temperatures. A drier but cool northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for next Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow (25 Sep): Sunny. North Winds. 46/82 Sat (26 Sep): Sunny. A Touch Cooler. NW Winds. 46/78 Sun (27 Sep): Sunny and Warmer. NE Winds. 45/85 Mon (28 Sep): Increasing Clouds and Onshore Flow. Chance of Rain Late. 47/74 Tue (29 Sep): Light Rain Likely Early...Showers in the Afternoon. Cool. 50/65 Wed (30 Sep): Mostly Cloudy AM. Afternoon Clearing. 44/66 Thu (01 Oct): Partly Cloudy. 44/68 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 28 09:00:43 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2009 11:00:43 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, September 28th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, September 28th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 10:00am until 6:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is allowed from 10:00am until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 10:00am until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: The upper-level ridge that brought sunny and warm weather to western Oregon over the weekend has shifted eastward to over Montana. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft was forcing the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades this morning, initiating a marnine push into the southern Willamette Valley. Low clouds blanketed much of the coastline and had penetrated east of the coast range, into the southern Willamette Valley, across Linn and Lane Counties. Skies were mostly sunny across most of the northern Willamette Valley, although some low clouds had formed near the Cascades in eastern Marion County. Onshore flow will push northward across the entire Willamette Valley today, with low clouds also filling into some of the the north valley later this morning. With the air mass rapidly cooling today, both at the surface and aloft, high temperatures will drop below normal, ranging from the upper 60s in the south valley to the low 70s in the north valley. Satellite imagery showed a cold front about 250 miles off of the Washington and Oregon coastline. As it advances eastward, light rain will likely push onto the coast in the mid to late afternoon, then across the Willamette Valley this evening. Rainfall amounts, with the initial cold front, are expected to be light, with most areas picking up around one-tenth of an inch. A fairly cold upper-level trough will follow the cold front onshore Tuesday with more showers and even cooler temperatures. We are not aware of any available fields for burning at this time. Surface Winds: S 5-12 this morning, SW 7-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 15 this morning, SSW 19 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 67. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 70. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% around 1pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 42%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:58pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:08am. Extended Outlook: The coldest upper-level trough so far of the early autumn season will move onshore Tuesday with snow levels dropping as low as 4000 feet in stronger showers. Willamette Valley temperatures will drop well below normal with showers dropping another one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of rain. There is even a slight chance of a thundershower. A transitory weak upper-level ridge is forecast to move over the reigon Wednesday for some drying and minor warming. Another cold front is forecast to come onshore Thursday...mainly into western Washington. The trailing edge of the front may bring some light rain to extreme northwestern Oregon. That system will likely be followed by a cool trough Friday that may bring some showers to mainly the northern valley. The upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the Pacific Northwest Saturday, for a better chance of showers and lowering snow levels. The upper-level trough is forecast to drop south of the region Sunday and Monday. Temperatures should slowly moderate, with a drier but continued cool northeasterly flow aloft. Tomorrow (29 Sep): Showery and Cool. Slight Chance T-Storm. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 47/61 Wed (30 Sep): Showers Ending Early...Becoming Partly Cloudy. 45/63 Thu (01 Oct): Increasing Clouds. Light Chance of Light Rain North. 44/67 Fri (02 Oct): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers...Mainy North. 47/66 Sat (03 Oct): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 45/63 Sun (04 Oct): Becoming Partly Cloudy. A little Warmer. 43/67 Mon (05 Oct): Partly Sunny. 42/69 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 29 09:00:35 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2009 11:00:35 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, September 29th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, September 29th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 6:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is allowed from 12:00pm until 6:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A Pacific cold front swept across western Oregon Monday and was pushing into Idaho this morning. Rainfall amounts in the Willamette Valley were generally around one-tenth of an inch or less, with the greatest totals in Lane County. Satellite imagery showed a few instability showers rotating onshore this morning, in the wake of the cold front, with an impressive line of showers just off the coastline. An upper-level trough will move onshore this afternoon, along with widespead showers and a chance of thundershowers. The snow level will drop to the Cascade passes today, with the freezing levels measured over Salem and Medford this morning at just 5200 and 5700 feet respectively. Ventilations conditions should be good this afternoon, with southwesterly transport winds and mixing heights climbing to nearly 5000 feet. However, the incoming showers will likely keep things too damp for burning. We are not aware of any available fields for preparatory or open burning at this time. With the exception of propane flaming, the summer field-burning season is likely over. Surface Winds: S 5-15 this morning, W 7-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 15 this morning, W 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:56pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:09am. Extended Outlook: A transitory weak upper-level ridge is forecast to bring some drying and minor warming on Wednesday. Another cold front is forecast to move mainly into western Washington on Thursday, but the trailing edge of the front may bring some light rain to extreme northwestern Oregon. A cold upper-level trough is forecast to drop southward over the region Friday and Saturday. Showers will likely spread southward across Washington and extreme northern Oregon Friday and all of Oregon by Saturday. Snow levels will drop to the Cascade passes Saturday. The upper-level trough is forecast shift east of the Cascades Sunday and into Idaho on Monday. A progressively drier, but continued cool, north-northeasterly flow aloft will make for chilly nights and crisp days. An upper-level ridge will slowly build into the coastline next week, with moderating daytime temperatures. Tomorrow (30 Sep): Showers Ending Early...Becoming Partly Cloudy. 44/63 Thu (01 Oct): Increasing Clouds. Slight Chance of Light Rain North. 44/67 Fri (02 Oct): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers...Mainly North. 47/66 Sat (03 Oct): Showers Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 45/60 Sun (04 Oct): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Slight Chance of Showers. 43/64 Mon (05 Oct): Partly Sunny. 42/66 Tue (06 Oct): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 42/70 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 30 08:57:23 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2009 10:57:23 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, September 30th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, September 30th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 5:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: It finally feels like autumn in western Oregon. A cold upper-level trough brought showers to the entire region Tuesday, with a dusting of snow down to about 4000 feet in the Cascades. Rainfall amounts in the Willamette Valley generally ranged from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch, but some spots in Lane County recorded about three-quarters of an inch. The air mass is still very cold this morning. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at 5100 and 5200 feet respectively early this morning. The upper-level trough was centered over Idaho with a cool and still somewhat unstable northwesterly flow aloft over western Oregon. Satellite imagery and Doppler radar showed a few instability showers rotating onshore, but they were generally decreasing in coverage and intensity. Some breaks were also showing up in the cloud-cover, especially from the coastal range westward. A weak upper-level ridge is forecast to move onshore this afternoon, which should allow for at least partly sunny skies. The threat of showers will continue to decrease, as the air aloft warms and stabilizes. A warm front, from the next weather system, will begin to increase the high and mid-level clouds by this evening, especially north. High temperatures will be well below normal again today (low 60s). Ventilation conditions should be good this afternoon, with westerly transport winds. However, fields are too damp for burning. We are not aware of any available fields for preparatory or open burning at this time. With the exception of propane flaming, the summer field-burning season is likely over. Surface Winds: S 5-10 this morning, SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 8 this morning, W 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 61. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:54pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:11am. Extended Outlook: A warm front is forecast to bring some light rain to western Washington Thursday morning, followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon. Considerable clouds will likely spread southward over most of western Oregon, Thursday and Thursday night, but only a chance of light rain...mainly north. Another quite strong and cool upper-level trough is then forecast to drop southward over the region Friday and Saturday. Showers will likely spread southward across Washington and northwestern Oregon Friday...continuing southeastward, across the remainder of Oregon, Friday night and Saturday. Snow levels will drop to below the Cascade passes, by Saturday, and possibly as low as 3000 feet. The upper-level trough is forecast shift east of the Cascades Sunday and into Idaho on Monday. They threat of showers should end, across western Oregon, by Sunday evening, with a progressively drier, but continued cool, north-northeasterly flow aloft. An upper-level ridge is forecast to slowly build into the coastline next week, bringing dry and pleasant early-autumn weather. Tomorrow (01 Oct): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 46/66 Fri (02 Oct): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Showers...Mainly North. 47/64 Sat (03 Oct): Showers Likely and Quite Cool. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 45/59 Sun (04 Oct): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Decreasing Showers. 43/62 Mon (05 Oct): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 40/65 Tue (06 Oct): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. 42/71 Wed (07 Oct): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Sunny and Warm. 43/76 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us