From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Feb 2 09:11:01 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 02 Feb 2010 11:11:01 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 12:00pm to 3:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean led to an unusually mild January across northwestern Oregon. January, 2010 was one of the top 5 warmest on record for Astoria, Portland, Salem, and Eugene, with the monthly average temperature about 5 degrees above normal. Rainfall for the month was above normal along the coast...tapering off to near-normal in the Willamette Valley. February is also off to a mild start, and will likely remain that way. El Nino usually brings mild Februarys to the Pacific Northwest with below normal precipitation and mountain snowfall. In the short-term...a transitory ridge of high pressure stabilized the atmosphere overnight across western Oregon, leading the areas of dense fog formation in the Willamette Valley by early this morning. Visibilities remained less than one-quarter of a mile across much of the valley at mid-morning. Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s with light winds. Satellite imagery showed a rather compact weather system centered about 400 miles off the southern Oregon Coast this morning. The associated cloud-shield was inching slowly eastward towards the coastline at mid-morning. Some clouds and light showers were also spreading northward into extreme southwestern Oregon. Clouds will slowly increase, over the top of the fog deck, from southwest to northeast, across western Oregon today. Surface winds will remain very light offshore, with transport winds becoming more southerly by this afternoon. Rain will likely spread across much of southwestern Oregon this afternoon and across the remainder of western Oregon tonight and Wednesday. The snow level will remain in the 4-5000 foot range, with a few inches of snow likely over the Cascade passes tonight through Wednesday. Surface Winds: NNE 0-5 this morning, NNE 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 5 this morning, S 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 8. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 71%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:22pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:29am. Extended Outlook: Wednesday looks wet across all of western Oregon, with steady rain tapering off to showers by late in the day. Temperatures will remain mild, with valley highs near 50 degrees. Several inches of snow are likely in the Cascades, with the snow level just below the passes. A weak ridge will likely bring some brief drying Wednesday night, before another weather system brings more rain and higher elevation snow onshore Thursday. Showers will continue into Friday, with an El Nino jet stream pattern once again directing the bulk of the next weather system, on Saturday, into California. It appears as if we may slowly dry out by early next week, with continued mild temperatures. Tomorrow (03 Feb): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 40/49 Thu (04 Feb): Rain Developing and Mild. Snow Level Rising to 4500 Feet. 38/50 Fri (05 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 39/55 Sat (06 Feb): Rain Developing...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/51 Sun (07 Feb): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/51 Mon (08 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/52 Tue (09 Feb): Partly Sunny. 36/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 3 09:14:41 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 03 Feb 2010 11:14:41 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies covering most of Oregon and Washington this morning, with areas of showers rotating northward over both states. The freezing level is near 5000 feet this morning, so the showers have been falling as snow over the Cascade passes, although accumulations have been minimal. Doppler radar showed a fairly impressive band of showers rotating northward into south-central Washington, at mid-morning. Another line of showers extended from around Newport to Salem to Eugene and was moving northeastward. With the upper-level low pressure center only about 100 miles off the central Oregon coast, the air aloft is just cold enough to support possible thundershower development today, especially along the coast and over the coastal range. The morning ODA surface analysis showed weak offshore gradients, in response the the approaching weather system. Easterly winds will likely turn more southerly later today, as the offshore low-presure center slowly migrates northward along the Oregon coast. Generally cloudy skies and occasional showers will combine with cool air aloft to keep western Oregon temperatures mostly in the 40s today, which is normal for early February. Several inches of new snow are possible over the Cascade passes and ski areas. Cooler air aloft will improve ventilation conditions today. Surface Winds: ESE 5-10 this morning, SSE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSE 10 this morning, SSE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 49. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 77%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:23pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:28am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring brief drying tonight and early Thursday, before another weather system renews the steady rain and higher elevation snow Thursday afternoon and night. Showers will continue into Friday, with a split-flow jet steram pattern developing, typical of El Nino. Once again, the real punch of approaching storms will be directed south of the state, into California, beginning later this week. It appears as if western Oregon may have a few dry days early next week, with continued mild temperatures. Tomorrow (04 Feb): Rain Developing and Mild. Snow Level Rising to 4500 Feet. 38/50 Fri (05 Feb): Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/54 Sat (06 Feb): Rain Developing...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/52 Sun (07 Feb): Areas of AM Fog...Partly Sunny and Mild. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/51 Mon (08 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Slight Chance of Rain Late. Snow Level 4500 Feet. 36/52 Tue (09 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Rain. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 40/54 Wed (10 Feb): Areas of AM Fog...Partly Sunny. 36/52 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 4 09:00:46 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 04 Feb 2010 11:00:46 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 4th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 4th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Showers tapered off overnight across western Oregon, but mostly cloudy skies and a mild onshore flow aloft held temperatures in the 40s. A developing low-pressure system, centered about 300 miles west of the southern Oregon coast, was spinning a broad band of clouds and light rain back over western Oregon this morning. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies had advanced northeastward over most of Oregon, and about half of Washington, by mid-morning. Doppler radar and surface reports indicated that areas of light rain had spread inland over much of western Oregon, but rainfall amounts, so far this morning, have been very light. The ODA surface analysis showed increasing offshore pressure gradients, in response to the developing low-pressure system off the southern Oregon coast. Most reporting stations across Oregon had an easterly component to their wind direction this morning. The strongest winds were at the western end of the Columbia Gorge, where Troutdale was picking up easterly gusts to about 30 mph. Temperatures are unusually mild, for early February, with mid-morning readings in the mid to upper 40s across western Oregon and mostly in the 30s east of the Cascades. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at 5100 feet and 5400 feet respectively this morning, so the snow level will start out near the Cascades passes today. Rain and higher elevation snow will slowly advance eastward across Oregon today, but a split-flow pattern in the El Nino-driven jet stream will direct the bulk of the moisture from this system south of the state and into northern California. Snow levels will likely climb to above the Cascade passes, by late this afternoon, ahead of the weakening cold front. That air aloft will be warm enough to support surface temperatures climbing into the mid 50s this afternoon, but rain-chilled air, cloudy skies, offshore winds may combine to keep Willamette Valley maximums closer to 50 degrees. The atmosphere will be much more stable today, compared with yesterday afternoon, but increasing southeasterly transport winds will make for fair ventilation conditions. Surface Winds: NE 5-10 this morning, ENE 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: ESE 12 this morning, SE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 23. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:25pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:27am. Extended Outlook: Steady rain early tonight will turn to showers by Friday morning, as the splitting cold front moves inland and across western Oregon. The state will be inbetween weather systems Friday afternoon, with a continued very mild split-flow jet stream pattern, typical of El Nino. The bulk of the next weather system is forecast to head south, into California, but some clouds and light rain will likely make it inland across western Oregon...mainly south. On Sunday, the California system will move eastward across Nevada and into Utah, with a mild and drier split-flow jet stream pattern developing over Oregon. Snow levels will drop slightly, likely falling to just below the Cascade passes. The next system is forecast to come onshore Monday. It will also weaken, as it encounters the split-flow jet stream pattern over Oregon but should be strong enough to spread some light rain and snow back across the state...mainly south. A weak upper-level trough is forecast to move onshore Tuesday, maintaining a threat of showers over most of the state. A transitory ridge may bring a dry day, next Wednesday, before another weather system spreads light rain onshore Wednesday night and Thursday. Once again, the main punch of that system will be directed south of Oregon and into California. Fri (05 Feb): Mostly Cloudy and Very Mild. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/56 Sat (06 Feb): Rain Likely South. Chance of Rain North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/52 Sun (07 Feb): Showers Ending with Some Sunbreaks. Snow Level 3500-4000 Feet. 37/52 Mon (08 Feb): Increasing Clouds and Chance of Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/52 Tue (09 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 39/52 Wed (10 Feb): Areas of AM Fog...Partly Sunny. Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. 36/53 Thu (11 Feb): Light Rain Likely...Mainly South. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 40/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 4 12:08:26 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 04 Feb 2010 14:08:26 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 4th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 4th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A fairly strong low-pressure system was centered about 300 miles west of the southern Oregon coast late this morning. Ahead of it, a broad cloud shield had advanced eastward over most of Oregon and southwestern Washington. Doppler radar and surface reports indicated that areas of light rain had spread inland over much of western Oregon, but rainfall amounts have been light so far today. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed increasing offshore pressure gradients, in response to the slow northward movement of the low-pressure system off the southern Oregon coast. Easterly winds were gusting to over 20 mph along the northern and central coast and to over 30 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Winds in the Willamette Valley varied from light northerly to light southeasterly. South of the low-pressure center, winds had turned southeasterly across southwestern Oregon, with gusts to over 30 mph in Medford. Winds along the south coast were generally less than 10 mph...a good indication that the low-pressure center is staying well offshore, as it migrates northward. Midday temperatures ranged from the upper 40s to low 50s west of the Cascades, with 30s to mid 40s across central and eastern Oregon. Cascades pass temperatures were in the 30s (above freezing) with generally wet road surfaces. Snow levels are near the passes but will rise some this afternoon. Rain and higher elevation snow will slowly advance eastward across Oregon today, but a split-flow pattern in the El Nino-driven jet stream will direct the bulk of the moisture from this system south of the state and into northern California. Snow levels will likely climb to above the Cascade passes, by late this afternoon, ahead of a weakening cold front. The air aloft will be warm enough for coastal and western valley temperatures to easily climb into the mid 50s this afternoon. However, offshore flow and cloudy skies may keep highs closer to 50 degrees. Winds should turn southeaserly and increase along the coast later today and tonight, but damaging winds are not expected. Winds in the Willamette Valley will also turn southeasterly late today but should not get very strong. Surface Winds: ENE 5-12 this afternoon...becoming SE 5-15 this evening. Transport Winds: SE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 23. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:25pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:27am. Extended Outlook: Steady rain early tonight will turn to showers by Friday morning, as the splitting cold front moves inland and across western Oregon. The state will be inbetween weather systems Friday afternoon, with a continued very mild split-flow jet stream pattern, typical of El Nino. The bulk of the next weather system is forecast to head south, into California, on Saturday, but some clouds and light rain will likely make it inland across western Oregon...mainly south. On Sunday, the California system will move eastward across Nevada and into Utah, with a mild and drier split-flow jet stream pattern developing over Oregon. Snow levels will drop slightly, likely falling to just below the Cascade passes. The next system is forecast to come onshore Monday. It will also weaken, as it encounters the split-flow jet stream pattern over Oregon but should be strong enough to spread some light rain and snow back across the state...mainly south. A weak upper-level trough is forecast to move onshore Tuesday, maintaining a threat of showers over most of the state. A transitory ridge may bring a dry day, next Wednesday, before another weather system spreads light rain onshore Wednesday night and Thursday. Once again, the main punch of that system will be directed south of Oregon and into California. Fri (05 Feb): Mostly Cloudy and Very Mild. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/56 Sat (06 Feb): Rain Likely South. Chance of Rain North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/52 Sun (07 Feb): Showers Ending with Some Sunbreaks. Snow Level 3500-4000 Feet. 37/52 Mon (08 Feb): Increasing Clouds and Chance of Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/52 Tue (09 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 39/52 Wed (10 Feb): Areas of AM Fog...Partly Sunny. Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. 36/53 Thu (11 Feb): Light Rain Likely...Mainly South. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 40/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 5 08:55:10 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 05 Feb 2010 10:55:10 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 5th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 5th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel... Weather Discussion: A weakening frontal system dropped from about one-tenth to one-third of an inch of rain across western Oregon overnight. Between a few hundredths and one-quarter of an inch of water-equivalent precipitation fell across central and eastern Oregon. Snow levels were between 4000 and 5000 feet overnight, so areas east of the Cascades saw a mix of rain and snow. A few inches of new snow fell in the higher elevations of the Cascades. The main cloud-shield from this weather system was pushing into Idaho at mid-morning, with mostly cloudy skies remaining across Oregon. Some rain and snow showers were still falling over mainly northeastern Oregon, with Doppler radar also showing some light rain showers over northwestern Oregon. It was very mild overnight, west of the Cascades, where temperatures stayed mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temperatures east of the Cascades varied with elevation. Higher locations stayed near freezing with occasional light snow, while the lower elevations stayed above freezing with occasional light rain. A southwesterly split-flow jet stream pattern, forced by a strong El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, will continue the mild early February weather across western Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed offshore pressure gradients across western Oregon with southeasterly winds in the 5-15 mph range. Infrared satellite imagery showed some middle and high clouds circulating across northwestern Oregon this morning, but the next organized weather system was still about 200 miles off the northern California coast. residual low clouds this morning should yield to some sunbreaks today across western Oregon. The air aloft is warm enough to support temperatures climbing into the mid 50s this afternoon, if we get enough mixing of the air mass...which is likely. Surface Winds: SE 5-12 this morning, SE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 15 this morning, S 18 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 45. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 59%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:26pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:25am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast to split apart, with the bulk of the moisture moving south, into California, on Saturday. However, western Oregon will get plenty of clouds and at least some light rain...mainly south. Weak southwesterly flow aloft will maintain fairly high snow levels, for early February, and mild surface temperatures. A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring drying to western Oregon Sunday, with continued very mild temperatures. Snow levels will remain near the Cascade passes. The next system is forecast to come onshore Monday. It will also weaken, as it encounters the split-flow jet stream pattern over Oregon but should be strong enough to spread some light rain and snow back across the state. Snow levels are forecast to drop a little lower with this system, with accumulation snow over the Cascades passes likely...mainly south. Another transitory ridge is forecast to move onshore late Tuesday and Wednesday with precipitation tapering off across western Oregon. Stronger weather systems are forecast to come onshore next Thursday and Friday, which could bring high coastal winds, along with more rain and mountain snow to western Oregon. Sat (06 Feb): Rain Likely South. Chance of Rain North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/52 Sun (07 Feb): Showers Ending with Some Sunbreaks. Mild. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/54 Mon (08 Feb): Light Rain and Mountain Snow Likely. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/50 Tue (09 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 39/52 Wed (10 Feb): Patchy AM Fog. Partly Sunny. Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. 34/50 Thu (11 Feb): Rain Likely...Possibly Windy Coast. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 40/53 Fri (12 Feb): Rain Likely...Possibly Windy Coast. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 40/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 5 12:07:41 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 05 Feb 2010 14:07:41 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 5th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 5th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel... Weather Discussion: A weakening frontal system dropped from about one-tenth to one-third of an inch of rain across western Oregon overnight. Between a few hundredths and one-quarter of an inch of water-equivalent precipitation fell across central and eastern Oregon. Snow levels were between 4000 and 5000 feet overnight, so areas east of the Cascades saw a mix of rain and snow. A few inches of new snow fell in the higher elevations of the Cascades. The main cloud-shield from this weather system was pushing across Idaho and into Montana late this morning, with skies clearing, from west to east, across Oregon. Some rain and snow showers were still falling over mainly northeastern Oregon, with dry coditions across western Oregon. It was very mild overnight, west of the Cascades, where temperatures stayed mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temperatures east of the Cascades varied with elevation. Higher locations stayed near freezing with occasional light snow, while the lower elevations stayed above freezing with occasional light rain. A southwesterly split-flow jet stream pattern, forced by a strong El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, will continue the unseasonalbly mild weather across western Oregon today. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed offshore pressure gradients across western Oregon with southeasterly winds in the 5-15 mph range. Visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies over western Oregon with only some high clouds. The next weather system was about 200 miles off the southern Oregon and northern California coast. With mostly sunny skies and mild air aloft, late-morning temperatures had already climbed into the mid to upper 50s across western Oregon. It is possible that daily record highs could be reached today, with a spring-like afternoon in store. Surface Winds: SE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 18 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 72. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 61 (would tie record high set in 1961). Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 45%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:26pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:25am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast to split apart, with the bulk of the moisture moving south, into California, on Saturday. However, western Oregon will get plenty of clouds and at least some light rain...mainly south. Weak southwesterly flow aloft will maintain fairly high snow levels, for early February, and mild surface temperatures. A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring drying to western Oregon Sunday, with continued very mild temperatures. Snow levels will remain near the Cascade passes. The next system is forecast to come onshore Monday. It will also weaken, as it encounters the split-flow jet stream pattern over Oregon but should be strong enough to spread some light rain and snow back across the state. Snow levels are forecast to drop a little lower with this system, with accumulation snow over the Cascades passes likely...mainly south. Another transitory ridge is forecast to move onshore late Tuesday and Wednesday with precipitation tapering off across western Oregon. Stronger weather systems are forecast to come onshore next Thursday and Friday, which could bring high coastal winds, along with more rain and mountain snow to western Oregon. Sat (06 Feb): Rain Likely South. Chance of Rain North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/52 Sun (07 Feb): Showers Ending with Some Sunbreaks. Mild. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/54 Mon (08 Feb): Light Rain and Mountain Snow Likely. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/50 Tue (09 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 39/52 Wed (10 Feb): Patchy AM Fog. Partly Sunny. Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. 34/50 Thu (11 Feb): Rain Likely...Possibly Windy Coast. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 40/53 Fri (12 Feb): Rain Likely...Possibly Windy Coast. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 40/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Feb 8 09:10:16 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 11:10:16 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, February 8th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, February 8th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 10:00am to 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel... Weather Discussion: After a mostly sunny and unseasonably mild Friday, with Eugene and Salem both setting new daily record high temperatures of 62 degrees, light rain returned to western Oregon on Saturday. Conditions dried out again Sunday, although skies stayed mostly cloudy. Temperatures remained above normal over the weekend, with valley highs in the low to mid 50s. Partial clearing and light winds last night allowed temperatures to cool into the 30s across most of western Oregon by early this morning. That led to widespread fog formation, with visibilities still locally at or below one-quarter of a mile, along the coast and in the Willamette Valley at mid-morning. Visible satellite imagery showed low clouds and fog covering most of Washington and Oregon this morning. The exception was over the Cascades of both states, where mostly sunny skies prevailed. There were also some breaks in the overcast along the coast and over the coastal range. The ODA surface analysis showed weak high pressure centered over and just east of the Willamette Valley, where winds were mostly calm at mid-morning. That was a light easterly drift to the wind along the coastal strip. Mid-morning temperatures, west of the Cascades, ranged from just below freezing, at Troutdale, to the low 40s in Corvallis and along much of the Oregon coast. A westerly split-flow jet stream pattern, forced by a strong El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, will continue the mild early February weather across western Oregon this week. Infrared satellite imagery showed the main cloud-band, associated with an approaching weather system, still about 200 miles offshore, although some middle and high clouds were already spreading onshore. Daytime heating will help break up the fog and low clouds across Western Oregon today. The air aloft remains mild for this time of year, with the freezing level measured over Salem this morning at 4500 feet. That is warm enough to support valley temperatures warming into the upper 50s this afternoon, but considerable fog, low clouds, and lack of wind will likely combine to cap valley temperatures in the low 50s. Ventilation conditions will only briefly improve to fair this afternoon, so stack burning was not allowed. Surface Winds: ESE 0-6 this morning, NE 2-6 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 6 this morning, ESE 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 15. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:30pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:21am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system will weaken as it encounters the split-flow in the jet stream just offshore. The bulk of the moisture is forecast to dive southweastward, into California, on Tuesday. Some clouds will sweep across western Oregon tonight and Tuesday but with only a chance of light rain and higher elevation snow. A transitory ridge of high pressure should provide a dry and mild Wednesday with areas of morning fog. Clouds will be on the increase, by Wednesday evening, as the next in a series of weather systems approaches the coastline. A warm front is forecast to bring lots of clouds and a chance of light rain to western Oregon Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Snow levels should rise above the passes Thursday, as warmer air aloft moves over the region. The trailing cold front is likely to bring some light rain Thursday night through Friday morning, with snow levels dropping back to the Cascade passes. The warm front from the next system will push mainly north of the region on Saturday. Sunday should be another mild day, ahead of a cold front forecast to bring more rain to western Oregon Sunday night. A few showers may linger well into Monday. Tomorrow (09 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/53 Wed (10 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Partial Clearing...Increasing Clouds Late. 34/52 Thu (11 Feb): Chance of Light Rain. Snow Level Rising to 5-6000 Feet. 41/52 Fri (12 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 42/53 Sat (13 Feb): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 42/55 Sun (14 Feb): Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Rain Likely Late. 41/56 Mon (15 Feb): Rain Early...Turning to Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Feb 9 09:10:21 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 09 Feb 2010 11:10:21 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 11:00am to 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA smoke management personnel... Weather Discussion: Fog and low clouds only partially cleared from the Willamette Valley on Monday, with high temperatures varying from the mid 40s, in foggy areas, to the low 50s where the fog gave way to afternoon sunshine. As an offshore weather system split apart, with the main energy heading south, into California, fog thickened overnight across the valleys of western Oregon. Temperatures locally dropped below the freezing mark in the Willamette Valley. Hillsboro dipped down to 29 degrees this morning. Meanwhile, Salem held up at 38 degrees and Eugene only dipped to 41 degrees. Fog was widespread across the valley again this morning, with visibilities locally less than one-quarter of a mile. Much like yesterday, visible satellite imagery showed low clouds and fog covering the western valleys of both Washington and Oregon this morning. Fog and low clouds were also extensive east of the Cascades. Skies were mostly clear over the Cascades and along much of both coastlines. The ODA surface analysis showed weak high pressure centered over south-central Washington and extending into the Willamette Valley. A low-pressure system was moving onshore into northern California. That was producing light north-northeasterly winds across western Oregon. A persistent split-flow jet stream pattern will direct yet another weather system inland across California today, while Oregon stays high and dry. The air aloft remains mild, with the freezing level near 5000 feet. However, fog and low clouds will be slow to clear across the inland valleys of western Oregon this afternoon. That will keep temperatures from reaching 50 degrees across much of the Willamette Valley. However, the north valley and the coast will likely see some sunshine today, with highs climging into the low to mid 50s. Once again, ventilation conditions will only improve to fair, at best, this afternoon, so stack burning is not allowed. Surface Winds: NNE 3-7 this morning, N 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 5 this morning, N 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 10. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 49. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:20am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will move onshore this evening and turn the flow aloft northwesterly. That should dry the air mass slightly, allowing temperatures to drop well down into the 30s across western Oregon overnight. Some of the traditionally colder pockets in the Willamette Valley will likely dip below freezing with widespread fog again by Wednesday morning. A warm front will increase cloud-cover across western Oregon Wednesday morning, with light rain movning onshore in the afternoon. Increasing southeasterly winds will improve ventilation conditions Wednesday afternoon. Rain and snow will push into the Cascades by Wednesday evening, with the snow level rising from 3500 feet Wednesday afternoon to more than 5000 feet Wednesday night. The trailing cold front should drop snow levels back to the Cascade passes by late Thursday, as the steady rain turns showery and begins to taper off. The next weather system is forecast to spread more rain onshore Friday, with the snow level dropping to around the Cascade passes. Southerly winds should make for good ventilation conditions. A transitory ridge of high pressure may dry things out Saturday, especially south, as a warm front brushes by to our north. If there is enough mixing of the air mass, temperatures could become quite mild Saturday afternoon. A weak cold front may bring some light rain Sunday, with snow levels likely remaining near or above the Cascade passes. Another warm front will bring a chance of rain Monday, with snow levels lifting above the Cascade passes. The trailing cold front is forecast to come onshore Tuesday. Wed (10 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Rain Developing PM. Snow Level 3500-5000 Feet. 34/48 Thu (11 Feb): Rain Likely. Blustery Along the Coast. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 42/53 Fri (12 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 40/53 Sat (13 Feb): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Mild. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 42/55 Sun (14 Feb): Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Chance of Light Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 41/53 Mon (15 Feb): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 37/53 Tue (16 Feb): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 37/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 10 09:09:36 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2010 11:09:36 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 12:00pm to 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 3:30pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel... Weather Discussion: A drying northwesterly flow aloft helped to clear the low clouds from the Willamette Valley late Tuesday afternoon. Clearing skies allowed temperatures to drop to the freezing mark in the Willamette Valley overnight, with areas of fog reforming. Aurora was one of the colder spots with a low of 30 dgrees. Salem and McMinnville both dipped to 32. By early this morning, however, clouds began to increase, from an approaching storm system, with the fog lifting and temperatures climbing into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Satelite imagery showed a solid band of low clouds moving onshore at mid-morning, with middle and high clouds extending across the Cascades over much of central and eastern Oregon. Doppler radar showed light precipitation along the coast and extending into the central and southern Willamette Valley. The ODA surface analysis showed increasing southeasterly pressure gradients, with winds in the 5-15 mph range greatly improving ventilation conditions across western Oregon. Light rain was being reported at Astoria and should spread across the Willamette Valley during the next couple of hours. Cloudy skies and occasional light rain will keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s across the Willamette Valley today, with low 50s possible along the coast. Southeasterly winds will continue to increase slightly and turn more southerly this afternoon, making for good ventilation conditions over the valley. The freezing level was measured at just over 5000 feet this morning, so snow levels will be near the Cascade passes today, where a couple of inches of new snow are possible. The frontal system is forecast to stall over western Oregon today and become activated by an approaching warm front tonight. That will likely lift snow levels above the Cascade passes by Thursday morning, with increasing rain across western Oregon. Surface Winds: SE 7-15 this morning, S 10-20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 15 this morning, SSW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 74%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:33pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:19am. Extended Outlook: Thursday should be quite wet and mild across western Oregon, with a morning warm front followed by a fairly strong cold front Thursday evening. Southerly winds will increase late Thursday, with possible gusts to around 60 mph along the coast Thursday night. The cold front should drop snow levels back to the Cascade passes by Friday morning, as the steady rain turns showery and begins to taper off. A colder weather system is forecast to spread more rain onshore Friday, with the snow level staying near or slightly below the Cascade passes. Southeasterly winds should make for good ventilation conditions. A transitory ridge of high pressure may dry things out Saturday, especially south, as a warm front brushes by to our north. It there is enough mixing of the air mass, temperatures could become quite mild Saturday afternoon. A weak cold front may bring some light rain Sunday, with snow levels likely remaining near or above the Cascade passes. Another warm front will bring a chance of rain Monday, with snow levels lifting above the Cascade passes. A weak cold front is forecast to come onshore Tuesday. Thu (11 Feb): Rain Likely. Blustery Along the Coast Late. Snow Level 5500 Feet. 42/53 Fri (12 Feb): Rain Likely...Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 40/52 Sat (13 Feb): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Mild. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 40/58 Sun (14 Feb): Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Chance of Light Rain. Snow Level 5500 Feet. 41/53 Mon (15 Feb): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 39/54 Tue (16 Feb): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 37/54 Wed (17 Feb): Partly Sunny. 36/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 10 12:13:01 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2010 14:13:01 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel... Weather Discussion: Satelite imagery showed a solid band of clouds extending eastward, from offshore, across western and central Oregon late this morning. Clouds were also increasing across the eastern third of the state. Doppler radar and surface reports showed light precipitation falling over most of western Oregon. ODOT road cameras showed light snow falling over the Cascade passes, where temperatures were just above freezing. Willamette Valley and coastal temperatures were in the low to mid 40s The ODA surface analysis showed southeasterly pressure gradients across western Oregon, with winds in the 5-15 mph range helping to improve ventilation conditions over the Willamette Valley. Skies will remain cloudy this afternoon, with occasional light rain, as a weakening frontal system stalls over the region. Highs today should stay in the mid to upper 40s, across the Willamette Valley, with low 50s possible along the coast. Southeasterly winds will turn more southerly this afternoon and increase slightly. The snow level is forecast to remain near 4000 feet this afternoon, with a couple of inches of snow possible over the passes, before snow levels rise above the passes this evening. The frontal system is forecast to stall over western Oregon today and then push northward, as an active warm front, tonight and early Thursday. That should keep snow levels above the Cascade passes tonight through much of Thursday, with increasing rain and wind. Surface Winds: S 10-20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 77%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:33pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:19am. Extended Outlook: Thursday should be quite wet and mild across western Oregon. Steady rain, from a warm front, in the morning, will likely be followed by cloudy and mild conditions around midday. The trailing cold front is forecast to increase the rain and wind Thursday afternoon and evening, especially along the coast. Southerly winds could gust to around 60 mph along the immediate coast late Thursday afternoon and evening, with gusts to near 30 mph possible in the Willamette Valley. Snow will be confined to the higher elevations of the Cascades on Thursday. The cold front should drop the snow level to the passes Thursday night, as the precipitation tapers off. A colder weather system is forecast to spread more rain onshore around midday Friday. The snow level will likely stay near or slightly below the Cascade passes. Southeasterly winds will not be as brisk with this system but should provide good ventilation conditions. A transitory ridge of high pressure may dry things out Saturday, especially south, as a warm front brushes by to our north. Afternoon temperatures could become quite mild Saturday. A weak cold front may bring some light rain Sunday, with snow levels likely remaining above the Cascade passes. Another warm front will bring a chance of rain Monday, with a weak cold front coming onshore Tuesday. Next wednesday looks dry & mild. Thu (11 Feb): Rain Likely. Blustery Along the Coast Late. Snow Level 5500 Feet. 42/55 Fri (12 Feb): Increasing Rain in the Afternoon. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 40/52 Sat (13 Feb): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Mild. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 40/58 Sun (14 Feb): Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Chance of Light Rain. Snow Level 5500 Feet. 41/53 Mon (15 Feb): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 39/54 Tue (16 Feb): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 37/54 Wed (17 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Sunny & Mild in the Afternoon. 36/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 11 09:10:11 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2010 11:10:11 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 11th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 11th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. Weather Discussion: ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel... A weakening frontal system spread mostly light rain across western Oregon Wednesday, before stalling over the region. Increasing southerly winds, ahead of an approaching warm front, led to midnight maximum temperatures across much of western Oregon Wednesday night. Willamette Valley readings climbed into the upper 40s by midnight, with some areas continuing to warm into the low 50s early this morning. Satellite imagery showed a rather complex-looking cloud pattern extending from over Washington and Oregon to more than 400 miles offshore. The fairly moist Pacific storm system was beginning to split apart, under the split-flow jet stream pattern just off the west coast. A surface low pressure center appeared to be developing about 450 miles off the southern Oregon/northern California coastline, with a warm front advancing out ahead of it towards Washington and Oregon. Skies were cloudy across all of Oregon with Doppler radar showing areas of light rain and higher elevation snow sweeping from west to east across the state. Between one-half and three-quarters of an inch of rain have fallen along the coast in the past 24 hours. In contrast, inland precipitation amounts have been mostly light. Western valleys have only received about one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch, with areas east of the Cascades generally picking up less than one-tenth of an inch. Snow levels are on the rise and had climbed just above the Cascade passes by mid-morning. The offshore low pressure system is forecast to track close enough to the coastline later today to bring strong southerly winds to much of the Oregon Coast. The National Weather Service has issued high wind warnings for the Oregon Coast, for southerly gusts up to 70 mph, late this afternoon through this evening. Southerly winds will also increase today in the Willamette Valley, with gusts of 35-40 mph possible by this evening. Rain will also be on the increase today, with snow levels likely staying above the passes. It will be very mild, with southerly winds helping lift temperatures into the mid 50s. Surface Winds: SSE 10-20 G25 this morning, SSE 12-25 G35 Late this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 25 this morning, S 35 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 88. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 55. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 69%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:35pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:17am. Extended Outlook: The cold front asociated with the offshore weather system will finally come onshore overnight...dropping the snow level to the Cascade passes. 3-6 inches of snow are possible, at pass level, before the precipitation tapers off Friday morning. The brisk southerly winds across western Oregon will rapidly taper off overnight, in the wake of the frontal passage, with the steady rain turning showery and decreasing. A colder weather system is forecast to spread more rain onshore around midday Friday. The snow level will likely stay near or slightly below the Cascade passes. Southeasterly winds will not be as brisk with this system but should provide good ventilation conditions. A transitory ridge of high pressure should dry things out Saturday, especially south, as a warm front brushes by to our north. Afternoon temperatures could become quite mild Saturday with some sunbreaks possible. A weak cold front will likely bring some light rain Sunday, with snow levels likely remaining above the Cascade passes. Another warm front will bring a chance of rain Monday, with a weak cold front coming onshore Tuesday. Next Wednesday and Thursday look dry & very mild, with increasing offshore flow, as a strong upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the west coast. Fri (12 Feb): Increasing Rain in the Afternoon. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 46/54 Sat (13 Feb): Chance of Light North. Mostly Cloudy South. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 44/58 Sun (14 Feb): Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Chance of Light Rain. Snow Level 5500 Feet. 41/53 Mon (15 Feb): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 39/54 Tue (16 Feb): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 37/54 Wed (17 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Sunny & Mild in the Afternoon. 36/57 Thu (18 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Spring-Like. 38/62 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 11 12:08:57 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2010 14:08:57 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 11th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 11th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. Weather Discussion: ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel... Increasing southerly winds sent Willamette Valley temperatures climbing into the upper 40s by midnight, last night, and into the low 50s early this morning. Satellite imagery showed a one large band of clouds covering most of Oregon...extending westward into another, developing, cloud-shield a couple hundred miles offshore. Only spotty areas of light rain and high elevation snow were falling across the state at midday. ODOT road cameras showed wet pavement over the Cascade passes, with the snow level around 6000 feet. The developing offshore system has a fair amount of moisture associated with it, but the split-flow jet stream pattern will act to shear it apart, as it approaches the coastline this evening. A surface low pressure center was developing about 300 miles off of the southern Oregon coast late this morning, with a warm front advancing out ahead of it towards Washington and Oregon. Moderate southeasterly pressure gradients were producing south wind gusts around 30 mph on the southern Oregon Coast and 20 mph on the central coast late this morning. Southeasterly winds were in the 5-15 mph range across the Willamette Valley. The low pressure center is forecast to track close enough to the coastline later today to bring strong southerly winds to much of the Oregon Coast. The National Weather Service has issued high wind warnings, along the Oregon Coast, for possible southerly winds gusting to around 70 mph, from later this afternoon until about midnight. Southerly winds will also increase later this afternoon in the Willamette Valley, with gusts of 35-40 mph possible by this evening. Rain will also be on the increase today, with snow levels likely staying above the passes. Mild southerly winds will lift temperatures into the mid 50s. Surface Winds: SSE increasing to 12-25 G35 late this afternoon. Gusts to 40 mph possible this evening. Transport Winds: S 35 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 88. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 69%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:35pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:17am. Extended Outlook: When the offshore cold front moves inland late tonight, snow levels will drop to near the Cascade passes. 3-6 inches of snow are possible, at pass level, before the precipitation tapers off Friday morning. The brisk southerly winds across western Oregon will rapidly taper off overnight, with the steady rain turning to showers. A colder weather system is forecast to spread more rain onshore around midday Friday. The snow level will likely stay near or slightly below the Cascade passes. Southeasterly winds will not be as brisk with this system but should provide good ventilation conditions. A transitory ridge of high pressure should dry things out Saturday, especially south, as a warm front brushes by to our north. Afternoon temperatures could become quite mild Saturday with some sunbreaks possible. A weak cold front will likely bring some light rain Sunday, with snow levels likely remaining above the Cascade passes. Another warm front may bring some sprinkles to northern sections Monday, with skies staying mostly cloudy Tuesday. An upper level ridge is forecast to bring spring-like conditions next Wednesday and Thursday. Fri (12 Feb): Increasing Rain in the Afternoon. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 46/54 Sat (13 Feb): Chance of Light North. Mostly Cloudy South. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 44/58 Sun (14 Feb): Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Chance of Light Rain. Snow Level 5500 Feet. 41/53 Mon (15 Feb): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 39/54 Tue (16 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 37/54 Wed (17 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Sunny & Mild in the Afternoon. 36/57 Thu (18 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Spring-Like. 38/62 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 12 09:16:06 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2010 11:16:06 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 12th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 12th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel... Weather Discussion: A quick-hitting weather system came onshore late Thursday and dumped between one-quarter and one-half inch of rain along the coast and across the Willamette Valley. Southerly winds also became quite blustery for a few hours, Thursday evening, gusting to nearly 70 mph along the exposed headlands at the coast and to near 40 mph in the northern Willamette Valley. Cape Foulweather and Garibaldi both recorded peak gusts of 69 mph, with gusts to 54 mph at Newport and 53 mph at Lincoln City. In the Willamette Valley, McMinnville had a gust to 39 mph and Salem recorded a peak gust of 35 mph. The rain and wind tapered off overnight, with the passage of the cold front. The snow level was up to nearly 6000 feet ahead of the front but had dropped to near the Cascade passes by this morning. The break from the rain was brief, with another, somewhat colder, weather system moving onshore at mid-morning. Satellite imagery showed a fairly narrow but impressive-looking cloud band rotating onto the Oregon coast and inland over western Oregon. Doppler radar and surface reports show that rain has indeed spread back over much of western Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed increasing southerly pressure gradients, with gusts to around 35 mph along the coast, from Astoria to North Bend. Blustery south winds were beginning to make it into the Willamette Valley. McMinnville was getting gusts to around 25 mph. Southerly winds were keeping temperatures around the 50 degree mark across most of western Oregon. Rain and blustery southerly winds will continue through this morning with the precipitation turning showery later this afternoon. Colder air aloft will lower the snow level to at or below 4000 feet this afternoon, so several inches of snow are likely over the Cascade passes by this evening. The air mass will also become increasingly unstable this afternoon, with a chance of thunderstorms along the coast and a slight chance inland. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures from climbing about about 55 degrees in the valley, after locally warming to 60 degrees on Thursday. Southerly winds will not be quite as brisk today as they were last night but will make for excellent ventilation conditions across the valley. Surface Winds: S 10-20 G30 this morning, S 12-22 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 35 this morning, SSW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 88. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 70%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:36pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:16am. Extended Outlook: A warm front will bring a chance of light rain Saturday morning, with a transitory ridge of high pressure drying things out Saturday afternoon. Temperatures could become quite mild, with some afternoon sunbreaks...mainly south. Freezing levels will jump well above the Cascade passes by Saturday afternoon. A weak cold front will likely spread light rain back across western Oregon by Sunday afternoon, with snow levels likely remaining above the Cascade passes. Monday looks mostly cloudy but mild, with a warm front bringing some sprinkles to northern sections of western Oregon by Monday evening. A cold front is forecast to swing onshore Monday night and early Tuesday. Snow levels may drop back to the Cascade passes Tuesday. A building upper-level ridge of high pressure is still forecast to bring mostly sunny and mild weather to the region Wednesday through Friday of next week, with offshore flow. Sat (13 Feb): Chance of AM Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level Rising to 6000 Feet. 44/60 Sun (14 Feb): Light Rain Developing by the Afternoon. Snow Level 5500 Feet. 44/55 Mon (15 Feb): Increasing Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 38/57 Tue (16 Feb): Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 42/53 Wed (17 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Mostly Sunny & Mild. 36/57 Thu (18 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Spring-Like. 35/62 Fri (19 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Mild. 35/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 12 12:10:14 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2010 14:10:14 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 12th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Scheduled for Tuesday, February 16, 2009 at 9:00am... Issued: Friday, February 12th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed. Stack burning permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel... Weather Discussion: After a rainy and blustery night, another Pacific storm system spread more rain back across western Oregon this morning. Satellite imagery showed the main cloud-band had pushed just east of the Willamette Valley, over the Cascades, late this morning. Doppler radar and surface reports showed that the steady rain was tapering off across the Willamette Valley. The ODA surface analysis still showed fairly strong southerly pressure gradients, with winds gusting to around 35 mph along the coast and to about 25 mph in the Willamette Valley. Temperatures were still near the 50 degree mark, much like earlier this morning. An upper-level trough will move onshore this afternoon, maintaining shower activity across western Oregon. Colder air aloft will lower the snow level to at or below 4000 feet, so several inches of snow are likely over the Cascade passes by this evening. The air mass will also become increasingly unstable this afternoon, with a chance of thunderstorms along the coast and a slight chance inland. Temperatures will not likely climb more than a couple more degrees this afternoon, with highs mostly in the low 50s. Southerly winds will slowly decrease during the afternoon but will continue to be gusty at times...especially near showers. Surface Winds: S 12-22 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 88. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 70%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:36pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:16am. Extended Outlook: A warm front will bring a chance of light rain Saturday morning, with a transitory ridge of high pressure drying things out Saturday afternoon. Temperatures could become quite mild, with some afternoon sunbreaks...mainly south. Freezing levels will jump well above the Cascade passes by Saturday afternoon. A weak cold front will likely spread light rain back across western Oregon Sunday, with snow levels likely remaining above the Cascade passes. Monday looks to be mostly cloudy but mild, with a warm front bringing some sprinkles to northern sections of western Oregon by Monday evening. A cold front is forecast to swing onshore Monday night and early Tuesday. Snow levels may drop back to the Cascade passes Tuesday. A building upper-level ridge of high pressure is still forecast to bring mostly sunny and mild weather to the region Wednesday through Friday of next week, with offshore flow. Sat (13 Feb): Chance of AM Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level Rising to 6000 Feet. 44/60 Sun (14 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5500 Feet. 44/55 Mon (15 Feb): Increasing Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 38/57 Tue (16 Feb): Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 42/53 Wed (17 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Mostly Sunny & Mild. 36/57 Thu (18 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Spring-Like. 35/62 Fri (19 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Mild. 35/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Feb 16 09:09:34 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Feb 2010 11:09:34 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A weak cold front spread rain across western Oregon overnight and was pushing east of the Cascades this morning. Satellite imagery and surface reports showed some breaks in the clouds across western Oregon. Doppler radar showed a few showers over mainly the extreme south valley, with the bulk of the activity now east of the Willamette Valley. Much of the Willamette VaLley picked up about one-quarter of an inch of rain overnight, with up to three-quaters of an inch falling along the north coast. Areas of light rain were falling across central and eastern Oregon this morning, but amounts were generally well less than one-tenth of an inch. This was a mild weather system, with the freezing levels over Salem and Medford measured at 7100 and 7800 feet respectively early this morning. ODOT road cameras showed wet pavement over the Cascade passes with pass temperatures in the mid 30s this morning. Even in the wake of the cold front, mild westerly winds were keeping temperatures in the low 50s across the Willamette Valley. High pressure will rapidly build over the region today, with showers ending and skies slowly clearing. That air aloft is warm enough to support western Oregon temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. Transport winds will likely become northerly this afternoon, which is not a good direction for stack burning, so it was not allowed today. Clearing skies and light north winds will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s across the Willamette Valley tonight with areas of fog forming. Surface Winds: WSW 3-8 this morning, N 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: WSW 6 this morning, N 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 12. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:42pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:10am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level ridge of high pressure is forecast to amplify just off the west coast Wednesday and Thursday, with a dry northerly flow aloft over Oregon. Increasing offshore flow at the surface will help to clear skies, after areas of morning fog, which will mainly form in in the central and southern valley. Increasing easterly outflow, from the Columbia Gorge, will likely keep fog out of the extreme north valley. Drier air will make for greater temperature spread between overnight minimums and daytime maximums. Valley highs will vary, depending on the local duration of fog and low clouds. The air mass puring into the Columbia Basin, from Canada, will likely be cool enough to keep temperatures from climbing much above 60 in the Willamette Valley, but downsloping winds could send coastal temperatures into the mid 60s. Some moisture may undercut the upper-level ridge and begin moving into southern Oregon late in the week. It is possible that some of this moisture could advance northward into the Willamette Valley by the weekend. The chance of rain increases next week. Tomorrow (17 Feb): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly Central and South. Partly Cloudy. 34/58 Thu (18 Feb): Patchy AM Fog...Mainly South. Mostly Sunny and Mild. 34/62 Fri (19 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Mild with Continued Offshore Flow. 35/60 Sat (20 Feb): Partly Cloudy. 34/58 Sun (21 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Rain. 36/55 Mon (22 Feb): Chance of Rain. 38/54 Tue (23 Feb): Chance of Rain. 40/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Feb 16 12:11:50 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Feb 2010 14:11:50 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: The main cloud-shield and areas of rain, associated with the weakening cold front that spread rain across western Oregon overnight, was pushing east, into Idaho, late this morning. Satellite imagery and surface reports showed some breaks in the clouds across western Oregon. Doppler radar showed that the showers were ending west of the Cascades. Much of the Willamette Valley picked up about one-quarter of an inch of rain overnight, with up to three-quaters of an inch falling along the north coast. Areas of light rain fell over central and eastern Oregon earlier this morning, with most areas picking up only a few hundredths of an inch. The rainfall was also tapering off east of the Cascades by late this morning, with most of the remaining activity near the Idaho border. The air mass is very mild, with the freezing level above 7000 feet. ODOT road cameras showed wet pavement over the Cascade passes with late-morning pass temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Willamette Valley temperatures stayed in the mid to upper 40s overnight and had already warmed into the mid to upper 50s by late this morning. Coastal readings were slightly cooler...in the low to mid 50s. High pressure will rapidly build over the region today, with warming aloft capping any convection due to daytime heating. Partly sunny skies will combine with the higher sun-angle of the second half of February to lift valley temperatures to around 60 degrees this afternoon. Northerly transport winds are not favorable for stack burning, so it was not allowed today. Clearing skies and light north winds will help temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s across the Willamette Valley tonight with areas of fog forming. Surface Winds: Becoming N 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: Becoming N 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 12. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:42pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:10am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level ridge of high pressure is forecast to amplify, just off the west coast Wednesday and Thursday, with a dry northerly flow aloft developing over Oregon. Increasing offshore flow at the surface will help to clear skies and limit AM fog, especially in the north valley. Easterly winds will become quite strong, at the western end of the Columbia Gorge, by early Thursday morning. Drier air will make for a greater temperature spread between overnight minimums and daytime maximums. After starting off in the 30s, valley highs should climb to around 60 degrees. The air mass puring into the Columbia Basin, from Canada, will likely be cool enough to keep Willamette Valley temperatures from climbing much above 60 degrees. However, the offshore flow, down-sloping off the coastal range, may send coastal temperatures into the mid 60s by Thursday. Some moisture may undercut the upper-level ridge and begin moving into southern Oregon late in the week. It is possible that moisture could advance northward, into the Willamette Valley, by the weekend, with an increasing chance of rain early next week. Tomorrow (17 Feb): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly Central and South. Partly Cloudy. 34/58 Thu (18 Feb): Patchy AM Fog...Mainly South. Mostly Sunny and Mild. 34/62 Fri (19 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Mild with Continued Offshore Flow. 35/60 Sat (20 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Slight Chance of Rain...Mainly South. 34/58 Sun (21 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly South. 36/55 Mon (22 Feb): Chance of Rain. 38/54 Tue (23 Feb): Chance of Rain. 40/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 17 09:19:02 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2010 11:19:02 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A building upper-level ridge of high pressure, just offshore, will produce a dry northerly flow across the region today. The air mass aloft is presently quite mild. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at 8900 feet and 9500 feet respectively early this morning. Clearing skies allowed overnight temperatures to drop well into the 30s across most of western Oregon and into the 20s and 30s east of the Cascades. Residual moisture, from the recent rainfall, helped fairly widespread fog to form in the valleys of western Oregon as well as in the river basins east of the Cascades. Visible satellite imagery showed the areas of valley fog, on both sides of the Cascades, with mostly clear skies along much of the coast and over the Cascades. The ODA surface analysis showed pressure gradients had become northerly across Oregon, with a building thermal trough along the southern Oregon coast. Offshore flow had cleared skies, north of about Cape Blanco, along the Oregon Coast, with low clouds banking up along the southern Oregon coast. With northerly flow this morning, instead of southwesterly flow, temperatures are markedly cooler. After starting out in the low 50s Tuesday morning, and hitting maximums near 60 degrees, much of the Willamette was still in the upper 30s at mid-morning. Even though the air aloft is warmer this morning, compared to Tuesday morning, the air mass below 3000 feet is about 10 degrees cooler. That will lead to lower mixing heights and poor ventilation conditions today. The morning fog and low clouds, across the western valleys, should give way to sunshine this afternoon, as the air mass continues to dry out. Even though the air mass aloft is still quite warm, high temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 50s this afternoon, especially in areas slow to lose the morning fog. The coastline, which was a few degrees cooler than the Willamette Valley on Tuesday, should be a few degrees warmer than the valley today, due to downsloping easterly winds and a full day of sunshine. Highs along central coast should top out near 60 degrees. Surface Winds: N 5-15 this morning, N 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 15 this morning, NNE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 58. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 51%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:43pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:08am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge of high pressure will continue to amplify on Thursday, with northerly flow aloft driving cooler Canadian air into the Comumbia Basin of eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon. Increasing offshore flow, at the surface, will push the cooler and dry Canadian air through the Columbia Gorge and into the Willamette Valley...helping to clear skies and limit AM fog formation across the Willamette Valley. Brisk easterly winds will develop, at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Drier air will make for a large temperature spread between overnight minimums and daytime maximums. After starting off in the 30s, valley highs should climb to around 60 degrees Thursday, before staring a cooling trend Friday. The offshore down-sloping flow will likely lift coastal temperatures into the 60-65 degrees range Thursday. The air mass will progressively cool Friday and Saturday, with continued dry northerly flow. Some moisture may undercut the upper-level ridge and begin moving into southern Oregon by late in the weekend. It is possible that moisture could advance northward, into the Willamette Valley, by early next week. An increasing westerly flow aloft is forecast to bring back some rain and mountain snow by the middle of next week. Tomorrow (18 Feb): Patchy AM Fog...Mainly South. Mostly Sunny and Mild. 34/62 Fri (19 Feb): Mostly Sunny with Continued Offshore Flow. 34/58 Sat (20 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Cooler. 33/54 Sun (21 Feb): Partly Cloudy. 32/53 Mon (22 Feb): Partly Cloudy. 34/54 Tue (23 Feb): Chance of Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/54 Wed (24 Feb): Chance of Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 38/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 18 09:31:07 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2010 11:31:07 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 18th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 18th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 11:00am to 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A building upper-level ridge of high pressure, just offshore, will bring a dry and progressively cooler northerly flow into the region. The air mass aloft is still quite mild. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at 8400 feet and 9100 feet respectively early this morning, which is only slightly lower than on Wednesday morning. Clearing skies allowed overnight temperatures to locally drop to the freezing mark in the Willamette Valley, with areas of fog south of about Albany. Visible satellite imagery showed the areas of valley fog, in southern Linn and Lane Counties, as well as extensive fog and low clouds in the basins east of the Cascades. Skies were clear along the northern and central coast and over the Cascades. The ODA surface analysis showed increasing northeasterly pressure gradients across Oregon, with a cool Candian high pressure area diving southward into eastern Washington and a building thermal trough along the southern Oregon coast. Offshore flow had cleared skies, north of about North Bend, along the Oregon Coast, with low clouds banking up along the southern Oregon coast. Mid-morning temperatures ranged from near 30, in the foggy Eugene area, to the upper 40s along the sunny central Oregon coast. The areas of valley morning fog and low clouds should give way to sunshine this afternoon, as the air mass continues to dry out. The central valley will likely have the warmest temperatures (around 60 degrees). The extreme north valley will get some cooling influence, from the Gorge easterly winds, and the south valley will need to burn off the morning fog. Both the extreme north and south valley should stay in the 50s this afternoon. Down-sloping winds should warm central coastal temperatures into the mid 60s. Low clouds will keep the south coast in the 50s, and easterly outflow, from the Gorge, will likely hold the extreme north coast in the 50s. Surface Winds: NE 5-12 except E 10-20 north this morning, NE 7-17 except E 15-25 north this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 10 this morning, NE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 37%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:45pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:06am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge of high pressure will maintain northerly flow aloft over the region Friday and Saturday, driving cooler Canadian air into the Columbia Basin of eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon. Increasing offshore flow, at the surface, will push more of the cool Canadian air through the Columbia Gorge and into the Willamette Valley...helping to clear skies but lowering overall temperatures. Brisk easterly winds will continue, at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Drier air will make for relatively large temperature spreads between overnight minimums and daytime maximums, especially in wind-sheltered areas. Pockets of the Willamette Valley, away from the Gorge winds, will drop to near or below freezing in the early mornings. Sunny skies will help afternoon temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s. Offshore winds, down-sloping off of the coastal range, will likely lift central coastal highs to near 60, but north coastal highs will remain in the mid 50s, due to the cool easterly outflow from the Gorge. A fairly potent weather system is forecast to undercut the offshore upper-level ridge and slam into northern California over the weekend. That will help to maintain the strong offhsore flow across Oregon, with cool and dry air continuing to feed into the Willamette Valley, via the Columbia Gorge. Some precipitation is forecast to advance northward, across southern Oregon, Sunday and Monday. Clouds should increase, especially south, over the Willamette Valley but with only a chance of light precipitation this far north. Snow levels should be below the passes, so southern Oregon mountains may get some needed snowfall. The under-cutting weather system is forecast to dive southeastward, into Arizona, by Tuesday, with the offshore ridge of high pressure moving directly over Oregon. That will decrease the offshore flow, with pressure gradients becoming rather weak across the regin. Warming aloft and a backing off of the cool Gorge outflow should lead to warmer daytime highs across the Willamette Valley. However, highs along the immediate coastal strip may cool a few degrees. An increasing southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to bring back some rain and mountain snow back to the region by about next Thursday. Tomorrow (19 Feb): Mostly Sunny but Cooler. 31/56 Sat (20 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Cooler Yet. 29/53 Sun (21 Feb): Increasing Clouds...Mainly South. 29/53 Mon (22 Feb): Partly Cloudy South with a Slight Chance of Rain. Fair North. 30/53 Tue (23 Feb): Mostly Sunny. Slightly Warmer. 33/55 Wed (24 Feb): Increasing Clouds. 34/57 Thu (25 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 38/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 19 08:57:03 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Feb 2010 10:57:03 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 19th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 19th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 12:00pm to 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure, centered over northwestern British Columbia, is directing a dry north-northeasterly flow aloft over Oregon. On the surface, increasing northerly winds brought enough dry air into the Willamette Valley to completely clear the fog and low clouds, Thursday afternoon, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 50s and low 60s. Skies remained clear overnight, north of about Roseburg, with the air mass staying too dry for fog formation in the Willamette Valley. Low temperatures dropped below freezing in many wind-sheltered areas but held in the upper 30s and low 40s, where Gorge outflow kept the atmosphere well mixed. Visible satellite this morning showed fog and low clouds across the valleys of southwestern Oregon, the southern Oregon coast, and many of the basins east of the Cascades. Skies were mostly clear across northwestern Oregon...including over the entire Willamette Valley. Valley temperatures ranged from the low 30s, in Eugene, to the mid 40s in Aurora and McMinnville. Coastal temperatures ranged from the mid 30s at Astoria to the mid 40s at Newport. The air aloft is several degrees cooler today, below 7000 feet, compared to Thursday morning. However, the freezing levels remain near 9000 feet. Sunny skies and continued dry offshore flow will combine to lift western Oregon temperatures into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon...about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday but still above normal. Ventilation conditions will become fair this afternoon, but northeasterly transport winds are not favorable for evacuating smoke from stack burns. Surface Winds: NNE 5-12 this morning, NNE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 7 this morning, NE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 38%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:46pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:05am. Extended Outlook: Northeasterly flow aloft is forecast to drive slightly cooler air into northern Oregon over the weekend, with morning minimums, once again, locally dipping below freezing. Plenty of sunshine will help afternoon highs recover into the mid 50s, across the valley, and to near 60 along the central coast, with continued offshore flow. Brisk easterly winds will continue to pour out from the western end of the Columbia Gorge into the extreme north valley. The upper-level ridge is forecast to finally push inland, over Oregon, Monday. Warming aloft will help afternoon temperatures climb a few degrees above normal. A weakending weather system may begin spreading high clouds into the regin by Monday night. Long-range computer models differ on the strength of weather systems trying to break through the ridge of high pressure and come onshore next week. Some models bring rain onshore as early as Tuesday, while others keep it dry all week. I will split the difference, for now, and call for a chance of rain, beginning Tuesday, with an increasing chance of rain later next week. Tomorrow (20 Feb): Sunny and Slightly Cooler. 29/54 Sun (21 Feb): Sunny. Cool Start with Near Normal Afternoon Temperatures. 28/53 Mon (22 Feb): Moslty Sunny. A Little Warmer. 30/57 Tue (23 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Light Rain. 35/55 Wed (24 Feb): Chance of Rain. Snow Level near 4000 Feet. 38/55 Thu (25 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 40/54 Fri (26 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Snow Level near 5000 Feet. 40/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 19 11:58:57 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Feb 2010 13:58:57 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 19th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Friday, February 19th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure, centered over northwestern British Columbia, is directing a dry north-northeasterly flow aloft across Oregon. On the surface, dry northerly winds cleared the fog and low clouds from the Willamette Valley Thursday afternoon and helped maintain mostly clear skies overnight. That allowed temperatures to drop below freezing in many wind-sheltered valley locations early this morning. Salem dipped down to 29 degrees and Eugene recorded a minimum of 30 degrees. It stayed warmer where Gorge outflow kept the atmosphere well mixed. McMinnville never dipped below 40 degrees this morning, and Troutdale held in the mid 40s. Late-morning visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies over all of Washington and stretching from the northern and central Oregon coast, across the Willamette Valley, to over the Cascades. Low clouds and fog were hugging the southern Oregon coast, with pockets of fog still lingering in the southwestern valleys. Many of the river basins in central and eastern Oregon also had areas of low clouds. Clouds and fog were holdning temperatures in the mid 40s along the south coast and in the southwestern valleys. However, sunny skies had warmed temperatures into the low to mid 50s from the northern and central coast across most of the Willamette Valley. The freezing levels remain near 9000 feet, so sunny skies and continued dry offshore flow will lift western Oregon temperatures well above normal again today. However, the air mass below 7000 feet has cooled about 5 degrees since Thursday, and most surface temperatures are running a couple of degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Willamette Valley highs today should warm to near 60 degrees, after topping out in the low 60s Thursday afternoon. Ventilation conditions will be fair this afternoon, with surface warming lifting mixing heights above 2000 feet. However, northeasterly transport winds are not favorable for evacuating smoke from stack burns. Surface Winds: NNE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 35%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:46pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:05am. Extended Outlook: Northeasterly flow aloft is forecast to drive slightly cooler air into northern Oregon over the weekend, with morning minimums, once again, locally dipping below freezing. Plenty of sunshine will help afternoon highs recover into the mid 50s, across the valley, with downsloping offshore flow helping coastal temperaturse locally climb to around 60 degrees. Brisk easterly winds will continue to pour out from the western end of the Columbia Gorge into the extreme north valley. The upper-level ridge is forecast to finally push inland, over Oregon, Monday. Warming aloft will help afternoon temperatures climb a few more degrees, with continued spring-like conditions across the region. A weakening weather system may begin spreading high clouds into the regin by Monday night. Long-range computer models differ on the strength of weather systems trying to break through the ridge of high pressure and come onshore next week. Some models bring rain onshore as early as Tuesday, while others keep it dry all week. The latest guidance is showing a chance of rain Tuesday through at least Friday of next week, as the flow aloft turns southwesterly. Tomorrow (20 Feb): Sunny and Slightly Cooler. 29/56 Sun (21 Feb): Sunny. Cool Start with Near Normal Afternoon Temperatures. 28/55 Mon (22 Feb): Mostly Sunny. A Touch Warmer. 30/59 Tue (23 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Light Rain. 35/55 Wed (24 Feb): Chance of Rain. Snow Level near 4000 Feet. 38/55 Thu (25 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 40/54 Fri (26 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Snow Level near 5000 Feet. 40/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Feb 22 09:14:37 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Feb 2010 11:14:37 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, February 22nd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, February 22nd, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 11:00am to 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level ridge of high pressure, centered just off the west coast, brought a dry northerly flow aloft to Oregon over the weekend, resulting in sunny mild days and clear cool nights. Willamette Valley highs ranged from the mid 50s to the low 60s on Saturday. It was slightly cooler Sunday, with valley highs in the mid to upper 50s. The early-season warmth brought many trees and plants out of dormancy, which raises some concerns of possible frost damage. The dry air mass has been also allowing overnight temperatures to dip well below freezing, with this morning being the coldest in the series. Calm winds helped minimums drop into the mid to upper 20s across much of the Willamette Valley this morning. Hillsboro dipped to 25 degrees, with McMinnville and Salem both dropping to 26 degrees. Eugene fell to 27 degrees. Fortunately, these cold temperatures will not persist for long. Sunny skies and warm air aloft will combine to quickly lift valley temperatures back above the freezing mark this morning. The upper-level ridge has moved inland this morning and is centered over British Columbia. The flow aloft over Oregon has turned more easterly, with the air mass warming several degrees since Sunday. That will allow surface temperatures to climb to near 60 degrees in the Willamette Valley this afternoon, with sunshine being filtered by high clouds. The ODA surface analysis showed continued offshore flow across the state, with easterly winds along the coast and at the western end of the Columbia Gorge gusting to around 15 mph. Winds were light in the Willamette Valley. Satellite imagery showed high clouds moving onshore, in response to an increasing westerly flow aloft moving towards the coastline. However, skies should remain mostly sunny for one more day, with just some increase in high clouds. Surface Winds: NNE 0-5 this morning, NNE 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 3 this morning, NE 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 40. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 31%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:50pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:00am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward, to over Idaho, by Tuesday with the first in a series of weather systems coming onshore in the afternoon. Increasing clouds will keep Tuesday morning temperatures from being as cold as they were this morning, but afternoon highs will be considerably cooler with a chance of rain. Another system is forecast to maintain the chance of rain Wednesday, with the snow level low enough for some accumulating snow over the Cascade passes. A trasitory ridge of high pressure will bring some drying on Thursday, with another system coming onshore Friday. A ridge of high pressure may bring another spell of dry and mild weather, over the weekend, with the next weather system slated to return the chance or rain to western Oregon by Monday afternoon. Tomorrow (23 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Light Rain. 32/52 Wed (24 Feb): Chance of Rain. Snow Level near 4000 Feet. 38/53 Thu (25 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 36/56 Fri (26 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level near 5000 Feet. 40/55 Sat (27 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. 38/55 Sun (28 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Mild. 38/60 Mon (01 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain. Snow Level 6000 feet. 40/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Feb 23 08:30:13 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Feb 2010 10:30:13 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 1:00pm to 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 1:00pm until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: The upper-level ridge that has brought unseasonably warm and dry weather to the region for the past few days has shifted eastward, to over Idaho, this morning. An increasing southwesterly flow aloft will direct a series of weather systems onto the west coast for the remainder of this week. The main punch from these systems will be directed south of Oregon, into California, but western Oregon will see some rain and higher elevation snow at times through Friday. Clouds increased over western Oregon during the night, keeping overnight minimums generally just above the freezing mark. By mid-morning, temperatures had risen into the upper 30s to mid 40s across western Oregon. Satellite imagery showed a solid cloud shield, associated with a weakening weather system, covering western Oregon and pushing east of the Cascades. Doppler radar and surface reports indicated that areas of mostly light rain had pushed onshore and into the Willamette Valley. More significant rainfall was moving into northern California. The ODA surface analysis continued to show offshore pressure gradients across Oregon, in response to the approaching frontal system. Winds around to the state were mostly less than 10 mph, with easterly gusts to around 20 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Light rain at times is likely across the Willamette Valley today. Winds will remain light southeasterly. Rainfall totals should range from about one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch. After several days of above normal temperatures, Willamette Valley highs should be held in the 40s today (the normal high for Salem today is 53 degrees). The air aloft is still fairly mild, with the freezing level measured at more than 7000 feet early this morning. The snow level should remain above 5000 feet today and then lower to around 4000 feet by Wednesday morning. The Cascades passes will likely get a mix of rain and snow today with accumulating snow likely overnight. Surface Winds: SE 5-10 this morning, SE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 10 this morning, S 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 45. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47 (high on Monday was 55 degrees). Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 58%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:52pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:58am. Extended Outlook: The main frontal band is forecast to come onshore early Wednesday and could bring another one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of rain to the Willamette Valley, followed by showers Wednesday afternoon. The snow level should drop to about 3500 feet by Wednesday afternoon, with a few inches of snow likely over the Cascade passes. Light southerly surface winds will help coastal and western valley temperatures climb close to normal Wednesday afternoon. A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring some drying on Thursday, with another system coming onshore Friday. That system will also encounter the split-flow jet stream pattern, just off the west coast, with the main surge of moisture headed south into California. Enough energy will swing over Oregon, however, to bring back some rain and mountain snow. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild back over the west coast this weekend, with unseasonably mild conditions returning to western Oregon by Sunday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will likely bring a weakening weather system onshore by late Monday. Progressively stronger systems are forecast to come onshore later next week, as the jet stream takes aim a little more at Oregon, instead of California. Tomorrow (24 Feb): AM Rain...PM Showers. Snow Level near 3500 Feet. 41/53 Thu (25 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/56 Fri (26 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level near 5000 Feet. 42/54 Sat (27 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. 38/55 Sun (28 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Unseasonably Mild. 37/62 Mon (01 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain. Snow Level 6000 feet. 38/59 Tue (02 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 41/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Feb 23 12:08:35 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Feb 2010 14:08:35 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 1:00pm to 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 1:00pm until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: The upper-level ridge that brought unseasonably warm and dry weather over the weekend shifted east or Oregon by early this morning. An increasing southwesterly flow aloft pushed clouds over western Oregon during the night with rain movning onshore early this morning. Some sections of the Willamette Valley bottomed out near the freezing mark, shortly after midnight, before warming in response to the increasing cloud-cover. The incoming westerly jet stream is aimed at northern California, and that is where the bulk of the moisture from this weather system is being directed. A weakening occluded front was about 150 miles offshore, late this morning, and slowly advancing towards the coastline. Satellite imagery showed the associated cloud-shield had pushed eastward to the Idaho border, although it was composed mainly of just middle and high clouds east of the Cascades. Doppler radar and surface reports indicated that light rain had spread over most of western Oregon by midday. Most of the Willamette Valley had picked up a few hundredths of an inch, with about one-tenth of an inch falling so far today in the Salem area. Up to one-quarter of an inch of rain has fallen along the coast so far today. ODOT road cameras showed dry pavement still over the Cascade passes with pass temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The ODA surface analysis continued to show weak offshore pressure gradients across Oregon, in response to the approaching frontal system. Winds around to the state were mostly less than 10 mph, with easterly gusts to around 25 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Light rain at times is likely across the Willamette Valley today. Winds will remain light southeasterly. Rainfall totals should range from about one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch. Willamette Valley highs should be held in the 40s today (the normal high for Salem today is 53 degrees). The air aloft is still mild, with the freezing levels over Salem and Medford measured at more than 7000 feet early this morning. The snow level should remain above 5000 feet today and then lower to around 4000 feet by Wednesday morning. The Cascades passes will likely get a mix of rain and snow today with accumulating snow likely overnight. Surface Winds: SE 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 20. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47 (high on Monday was 55 degrees). Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 74%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:52pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:58am. Extended Outlook: The main frontal band is forecast to come onshore early Wednesday and could bring another one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of rain to the Willamette Valley, followed by showers Wednesday afternoon. The snow level should drop to about 3500 feet by Wednesday afternoon, with a few inches of snow likely over the Cascade passes. Light southerly surface winds will help coastal and western valley temperatures climb close to normal Wednesday afternoon. A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring some drying on Thursday, with another system coming onshore Friday. That system will also encounter the split-flow jet stream pattern, just off the west coast, with the main surge of moisture headed south into California. Enough energy will swing over Oregon, however, to bring back some rain and mountain snow. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild back over the west coast this weekend, with unseasonably mild conditions returning to western Oregon by Sunday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will likely bring a weakening weather system onshore by late Monday. Progressively stronger systems are forecast to come onshore later next week, as the jet stream takes aim a little more at Oregon, instead of California. Tomorrow (24 Feb): AM Rain...PM Showers. Snow Level near 3500 Feet. 41/53 Thu (25 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/56 Fri (26 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level near 5000 Feet. 42/54 Sat (27 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. 38/55 Sun (28 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Unseasonably Mild. 37/62 Mon (01 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain. Snow Level 6000 feet. 38/59 Tue (02 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 41/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 24 09:18:33 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2010 11:18:33 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A slow-moving frontal system brought steady light rain to western Oregon Tuesday. CoCoRaHS reports this morning showed that total rainfall amounts, over the past 24 hours, were heaviest along the southern Oregon Coast, where between 1.5 and 2 inches were common. Between one-quarter and three-quarters of an inch of rain fell along the northern and central coast and in the Willamette Valley, with over an inch falling in the northern coastal range. The occluded front finally moved through the Willamette Valley around midnight and continued to weaken as it pushed across central and eastern Oregon in the early morning hours. Precipitation started as rain, at the Cascade pass level, on Tuesday but changed to wet snow overnight. ODOT road reports indicated about one-half inch of water-equivalent precipitation fell at pass level, with over an inch falling in the higher ski areas. The passes picked up as much as 5 inches of new snow overngiht with close to 10 inches at the ski resorts. Rainfall amounts were considerably lighter east of the Cascades, but most areas picked up at least a few hundredths of an inch. Burns was one of the wettest location...receiving almost one-half of rain. We have a moist, but not very unstable, southwesterly flow aloft this morning, in the wake of the frontal system. That will keep lots of clouds over the state today, along with some sunbreaks. Daytime heating will act to increase the chance of showers somewhat this afternoon, with the chance of showers continuing into early Thursday. The freezing level was still over 5000 feet this morning, so the air mass behind this front was not very cool. The snow level should only drop to about 3500 feet this afternoon, with a few more inches of wet snow likely over the Cascade passes. At the surface, the winds turned southerly, in the wake of the warm occluded front, with coastal and valley temperatures warming about 5-10 degrees shortly after midnight. Mid-morning readings ranged from the mid 40s to the low 50s, in most cases warmer than at any time on Tuesday. For instance, Salem\'s high on Tuesday was only 44 degrees, with their temperature warming into the upper 40s shortly after midnight. Continued southerly winds will make for good ventilation conditions today and will help coastal and western valley temperatures climb close to normal. Surface Winds: S 5-15 G20 this morning, SSW 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 20 this morning, SW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 60. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 71%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:53pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:57am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring some drying on Thursday, with a warm front bringing more rain onshore Thursday night. The cold front will will encounter a split-flow jet stream pattern, just off the west coast on Friday, with the main surge of moisture headed south into California. Enough energy will swing over Oregon, however, to maintain rainy conditions with higher elevation snow. A cool upper-level trough will drop snow levels slightly Saturday, as showers taper off. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild over the west coast late in the weekend, with unseasonably mild conditions returning to western Oregon Sunday and Monday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will likely bring a weakening weather system onshore by late Monday. A little stronger series of weather systems is forecast for later next week, as the jet stream takes aim more at Oregon, instead of California. Tomorrow (25 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 41/55 Fri (26 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level Near 5000 Feet. 45/55 Sat (27 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/53 Sun (28 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Turning Mild. 37/60 Mon (01 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Continued Mild. Freezing Level Near 7000 feet. 38/62 Tue (02 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 41/54 Wed (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 38/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 24 12:16:51 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2010 14:16:51 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A slow-moving frontal system brought steady light rain to western Oregon Tuesday. CoCoRaHS reports this morning showed 24-hour rainfall totals along the southern Oregon Coast on the order of 1-2 inches. Between one-quarter and three-quarters of an inch of rain fell from the northern and central coast across the Willamette Valley, with over an inch falling in the northern coastal range. The occluded front finally moved through the Willamette Valley around midnight and continued to weaken as it pushed across central and eastern Oregon this morning. Precipitation turned from rain to wet snow on the Cascade passes overnight, with a few inches accumulating by daybreak. The higher ski araes picked up 5-10 inches of much-needed new snow. Rainfall amounts were considerably lighter east of the Cascades, but most areas picked up at least a few hundredths of an inch. Burns was one of the wettest location...receiving almost one-half of rain. Surface winds turned southerly just after midnight, with coastal and valley temperatures quickly warming about 5-10 degrees. late-morning readings were mostly in the low to mid 50s...some 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday\'s highs. The freezing level is still around 5000 feet and the snow level will hover near Cascade pass level this afternoon. ODOT road cameras showed slushy pavement over the Cascade passes, at midday, with temperatures just above freezing. A moist southwesterly flow aloft will keep lots of clouds over the state today, with southerly surface winds making for a mild afternoon. Weak convection, induced by the combination of mild surface temperatures and cool air aloft, should cap highs in the mid 50s but make for good ventilation. Doppler radar was showing an increase in light shower activity over mainly the coast range at midday. Some showers will likely develop over the Willamette Valley this afternoon. A weak upper-level impulse may continue the threat of showers through early Thursday. Surface Winds: SSW 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 60. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 64%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:53pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:57am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring some drying late Thursday morning, but an active warm front is forecast spread more rain onshore as early as midday Thursday and into the Willamette Valley no later than Thursday evening (possibly as early as midday). A cold front will follow the warm front onshore Friday and continue the steady rain across western Oregon. However, it will encounter the split-flow jet stream pattern, with the bulk of its strength forecast to hit California. A cool (not cold) upper-level trough will drop snow levels only to near the Cascade passes Saturday, as showers taper off. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild over the west coast late in the weekend, with unseasonably mild conditions possibly returning to western Oregon Sunday and Monday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will likely bring a weakening weather system onshore by late Monday. A little stronger series of weather systems is forecast for later next week, as the jet stream takes aim more at Oregon, instead of California. Tomorrow (25 Feb): Showers Ending Early. Rain Developing PM. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/54 Fri (26 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level Near 5000 Feet. 45/55 Sat (27 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/53 Sun (28 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Turning Mild. 37/60 Mon (01 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Continued Mild. Freezing Level Near 7000 feet. 38/62 Tue (02 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 41/54 Wed (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 38/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 25 09:08:56 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2010 11:08:56 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 25th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 25th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A moist and somewhat unstable southwesterly flow aloft kept lots of clouds across western Oregon Wednesday, with some locally intense showers developing Wednesday afternoon, especially over the northern Cascades. Snow levels dropped just below the Cascades passes, where a few inches of wet snow fell. The higher ski resorts received a much-needed 6-11 inches of snow Wednesday. Oregon mountain snowpacks are running only 50-80 percent of normal, with the greatest deficits in the northwestern portion of the state. Doppler radar showed a few lingering showers across western Washington and northwestern Oregon this morning, with a heavy shower being reported at Astoria. Mostly cloudy skies held overnight temperatures mostly in the low to mid 40s across western Oregon. Partial clearing locally allowed areas, like McMinnville, to drop into the upper 30s, but that also led to fog formation. Mid-morning visible satellite imgery showed mostly cloudy skies across western Oregon with some breaks in the overcast...especially over southwestern Oregon. Mid-morning temperatures ranged from the mid 30s, with some clearing in Medford, to near 50 in sections of the Willamette Valley and along the coast. The ODA surface analysis showed weak southeasterly pressure gradients beginning to develop, in response to an approaching warm front, about 300 miles off the northern California/southern Oregon coast. Winds statewide were less than 10 mph. The freezing levels were measured over Salem and Medford early this morning at 4400 and 5200 feet respectively. ODOT road cameras showed packed snow over the higher mountain passes, with pass temperatures near freezing. Showers should continue to taper off across northwestern Oregon this morning, as a transitory upper-level ridge of high pressure builds over the west coast. Slow warming aloft should lift the freezing levels to near 6000 feet this afternoon. Some sunbreaks will combine with the warming aloft to help temperatures climb into the mid 50s across the Willamette Valley this afternoon, with continued light southeastery winds. An active warm front will begin spreading high and mid-level clouds, from southwest to northeast, across western Oregon later this morning. Clouds should lower and thicken along the south coast by midday with rain coming onshore there in the early afternoon. Rain will spread north and east during the afternoon and likely into the southern Willamette Valley by sundown. Rain and southeasterly winds will increase tonight across all of western Oregon, with rainfall amounts of one-quarter of an inch, or more, likely across the Willamette Valley by sunrise Friday. Surface Winds: SE 5-10 this morning, SE 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 12 this morning, S 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 36. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 57%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:54pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:55am. Extended Outlook: A cold front is forecast to continue the steady rainfall across western Oregon on Friday. However, it will encounter a split-flow jet stream pattern, with the bulk of its strength forecast to dive southeastward, into California. Additional rainfall amounts of one-quarter to one-half of an inch are likely across the Willamette Valley Friday. Clouds and rain will hold valley minimums in the low to mid 40s, but afternoon highs will struggle into the lower 50s. Snow levels will climb to 5-6000 feet, with mostly rain over the passes. The higher elevations, including the ski areas, should pick up about a foot of much-needed snowfall. A cool (not cold) upper-level trough will drop snow levels only to near the Cascade passes Saturday, as showers taper off across western Oregon. Valley highs will climb above normal with some afternoon sunbreaks. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild over the west coast late in the weekend, with mostly sunny and very mild conditions likely returning to western Oregon Sunday and Monday. Increasing south-southwesterly flow aloft will likely bring a weakening weather system onshore by late Monday, with rain and much cooler temperatures Tuesday. Showers will taper off Wednesday with a break in the weather possible on Thursday. Tomorrow (26 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level Near 5000 Feet. 45/52 Sat (27 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/57 Sun (28 Feb): Partly to Mostly Sunny and Very Mild. 37/60 Mon (01 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Continued Mild. Freezing Level Near 7000 feet. 38/62 Tue (02 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 44/53 Wed (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 38/54 Thu (04 Mar): Partly Sunny. 39/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 25 12:08:24 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2010 14:08:24 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 25th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 25th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: Late-morning visible satellite imgery showed considerable low clouds lingering over the Willamette Valley, but clouds had cleared from much of the coastline and across southwestern Oregon. Clouds were also clearing out of central Oregon but were continuing to hand on across the eastern third of the state. Doppler radar showed the last of the showers pushing east of the northern Willamette Valley and into the extreme northern Cascades. The freezing levels were measured over Salem and Medford early this morning at 4400 feet and 5200 feet respectively but are on the rise, due to the approaching warm front. ODOT road cameras showed the packed snow from early this morning had given way to just wet pavement over the mountain passes, with pass temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s. Freezing levels should rise to more than 6000 feet later this afternoon. The ODA surface analysis showed southeasterly pressure gradients across western Oregon in response to an approaching warm front, about 250 miles off the northern California/southern Oregon coast. Winds had increased to around 5-15 mph. Late-morning temperatures ranged from the upper 40s to the mid 50s across western Oregon and from the upper 30s to mid 50s across central and eastern Oregon. It will be another very mild afternoon, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 50s across western Oregon. Infrared satellite imagery showed high clouds, from a strong warm front, already advancing onshore late this morning. Clouds will thicken and lower this afternoon, with rain moving onto the coast around mid-afternoon and into the southern Willamette Valley around sunset. Rain and increasing southeasterly winds will continue to spread north and east across the remainder of western Oregon tonight. Southerly winds could briefly become quite blustery along the coastline, with the passage of the warm front overnight. Rainfall totals of one-quarter of an inch, or more, are likely across western Oregon by sunrise Friday. Surface Winds: SE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 36. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 58. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 54%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:54pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:55am. Extended Outlook: A warm front is forecast to push north of Oregon Friday morning, but a trailing cold front should maintain fairly steady precipitation over western Oregon through Friday afternoon. The cold front will be slow to move onshore Friday afternoon, as it encounters a split-flow jet stream pattern. The bulk of its energy will get directed south of Oregon, into California, but its slow speed will help additional rainfall totals climb another one-quarter to one-half of an inch across western Oregon. Clouds and rain will hold morning minimums in the low to mid 40s, but afternoon highs will struggle into the lower 50s. Snow levels will hold at 5-6000 feet, with mostly rain over the passes. The higher elevations, including the ski areas, should pick up about a foot of much-needed snowfall. A cool (not cold) upper-level trough will drop snow levels only to near the Cascade passes Saturday, as showers taper off across western Oregon. Valley highs will climb above normal with some afternoon sunbreaks. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild over the west coast late in the weekend, with mostly sunny and very mild conditions likely returning to western Oregon Sunday and Monday. Increasing south-southwesterly flow aloft will likely bring a weakening weather system onshore by late Monday, with rain and much cooler temperatures Tuesday. Showers will taper off Wednesday with a break in the weather possible on Thursday. Tomorrow (26 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level Near 5000 Feet. 45/52 Sat (27 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/57 Sun (28 Feb): Partly to Mostly Sunny and Very Mild. 37/60 Mon (01 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Continued Mild. Freezing Level Near 7000 feet. 38/62 Tue (02 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 44/53 Wed (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 38/54 Thu (04 Mar): Partly Sunny. 39/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 26 09:10:00 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2010 11:10:00 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 26th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 26th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 10:00am to 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A very moist Pacific frontal system spread rain onto the southern Oregon coast Thursday afternoon and into the southern Willamette Valley shortly after sundown. The rain pushed north and east, across the remainder of western Oregon, during the evening hours, with steady rain continuing through the night. Light to moderate rain was continuing to fall across all of western Oregon, at mid-morning. Cloudy skies, with areas of light rain, had progressed eastward into western Idaho. Rainfall amounts have been greatest along the southern Oregon coast, and near the California border across the interior of southwestern Oregon. CoCoRaHS and National Weather Service reporting stations in Curry and southern Josephine Counties received a 1-2 inch soaking overnight, with coastal sections as far north as Lane County receiving over an inch of rain. About one-half inch of rain has fallen so far along the north coast. Between one-quarter and three-quarters of an inch of rain have fallen in the Willamette Valley, with the greatest totals near the coast range. The ODA surface analysis showed fairly strong southeasterly pressure gradients across all of Oregon, with an occluded front stalled just offshore. The Cascades shelter the Willamette Valley from much wind, with this pressure pattern, except for areas near the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Willamette Valley winds have generally been under 10 mph, except for easterly gusts to near 30 mph, all morning, in the Troutdale area. Southeasterly winds have also been gusting to around 30 mph in the Medford area and sections of south-central and northeastern Oregon. Winds on the coast have been gusting to between 20 and 25 mph at times. This weather system is loaded with warm air, which has all been forced aloft by the occluding of the surface front. The freezing level has jumped to between 7000 and 8000 feet this morning over western Oregon, with snow falling only above about 6000 feet. ODOT road cameras showed rain and just wet pavement over the Cascade passes at mid-morning with temperatures above freezing. The air aloft is so warm that surface temperatures would easily climb to between 60 and 65 degrees, if the sun were to come out and the winds turned southerly. However, neither of those things are going to happen today... A low-pressure wave is forecast to form along the offshore occluded frontal system, slowing it down and keeping a thick cloud-shield smack-dab over western Oregon. Surface winds will likely back from southeasterly to more of an easterly direction this afternoon, as the low-pressure wave moves into southwestern Oregon. The combination of continued rain...possibly heavy at times, and offshore winds will hold valley highs in the low 50s. Total rainfall amounts from this storm could exceed one inch in sections of the Willamette Valley. The occluded front is forecast to finally move inland this evening, with the steady rain tapering off to occasional showers. Surface winds will turn southerly overnight, which could result in midnight high temperatures across sections of western Oregon. Snow levels will drop to near the Cascade passes overnight, but the precipitation will be decreasing at the same time. Surface Winds: SE 5-15 this morning, ESE 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSE 20 this morning, SE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 77%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:56pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:53am. Extended Outlook: A cool (not cold) upper-level trough will drop snow levels slightly below the Cascade passes Saturday, as showers taper off across western Oregon. Valley highs will climb above normal with some afternoon sunbreaks. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild over the west coast late in the weekend, with mostly sunny and very mild conditions likely returning to western Oregon Sunday and Monday. Increasing south-southwesterly flow aloft will likely bring a weakening weather system onshore by late Monday, with rain and much cooler temperatures Tuesday. Showers will taper off Wednesday with a break in the weather possible on Thursday. The next weather system will head mainly into southern Oregon on Friday. Tomorrow (27 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 45/57 Sun (28 Feb): Partly to Mostly Sunny and Very Mild. 37/60 Mon (01 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Continued Mild. Freezing Level Near 7000 feet. 38/62 Tue (02 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 44/53 Wed (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 38/54 Thu (04 Mar): Partly Sunny. Increasing Clouds Late. 39/57 Fri (05 Mar): Rain Likely...Mainly South. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 41/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 26 11:52:36 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2010 13:52:36 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 26th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 26th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A moist and very slow-moving Pacific frontal system remained just off the coast lates thhis morning, with satellite imagery showing a broad cloud-shield covering all of Washington, Oregon and most of California. Middle and high clouds from this system extend eastward across all of Idaho, Nevada, and Utah. A strong westerly jet stream is cutting across the frontal zone off the northern California coast and helping to form a new low-pressure circulation center. That will further slow the eastward progress of the entire frontal system today and maintain steady rain across western Oregon. The bulk of the rainfall from this system, believe it or not, is following the jet stream into California. However, there is enough subtropical moisture entrained into the frontal zone to spread plenty of rain northward over western Oregon. Light to moderate rain was continuing to fall across all of western Oregon, late this morning, with some very light rain also spreading east of the Cascades. Through early this moring, rainfall amounts were greatest along the southern Oregon coast, and near the California border in southwestern Oregon. CoCoRaHS and National Weather Service reporting stations in Curry and southern Josephine Counties received 1-2 inches of rain overnight, with coastal sections as far north as Lane County receiving over an inch of rain. About one-half inch of rain fell overnight along the north coast, with between one-quarter and three-quarters of an inch of rain in the Willamette Valley. In the 6-hour period ending at 10am, another one-quarter to one-half inch of rain has fallen across most of western Oregon. Rainfalll amounts taper drastically east of the Cascades, where most areas have received very little rainfall over the past 6 hours. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed the southeasterly pressure gradients beginning to turn more easterly, across all of Oregon, due to a strengthening low-pressure area, forming along the front, just off the northern California coast. The Cascades shelter the Willamette Valley from much wind, with this pressure pattern, except for areas near the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Willamette Valley winds have generally been under 10 mph, except for easterly gusts to near 30 mph in the Troutdale area. Southeasterly winds have picked up across sections of central and eastern Oregon. Klamath Falls was recording gusts over 35 mph and La Grande was getting gusts over 40 mph. Remond was getting windy, as well, with gusts over 20 mph. Winds on the central and southern coast have been gusting to between 20 and 25 mph at times. Warming aloft has lifted the freezing level to 7-8000 feet over western Oregon, with the snow level at 6000 feet or higher. ODOT road cameras showed rain and mainly just wet pavement over the Cascade passes late this morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The air aloft is warm enough to support surface temperatures in the 60s today, if the rain stopped, the sun came out, and the wind turned southerly. However, none of those things is going to happen this afternoon... With a new low-pressure circulation center forming off the California coast, the frontal system will stall and maintain a thick cloud-shield smack-dab over western Oregon. Surface winds will continue to back from southeasterly to more of an easterly direction this afternoon, as the low-pressure wave moves into southwestern Oregon. The combination of continued rain...possibly heavy at times, and easterly low-level flow will hold valley highs in the low 50s. Total rainfall amounts from this storm could exceed one inch in sections of the Willamette Valley. The occluded front is forecast to finally move inland this evening, with the steady rain tapering off to occasional showers. Surface winds will likely turn southerly overnight, which could result in midnight high temperatures across sections of western Oregon. Snow levels will drop to near the Cascade passes overnight, but the precipitation will be decreasing at the same time. Surface Winds: ESE 5-12 this afternoon...possibly becoming ENE 5-12. Transport Winds: SE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature this afternoon will be near 52...possibly warmer later tonight. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will be near 85%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:56pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:53am. Extended Outlook: A cool (not cold) upper-level trough will drop snow levels slightly below the Cascade passes Saturday, as showers taper off across western Oregon. Valley highs will climb above normal with some afternoon sunbreaks. A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the west coast late in the weekend, with mostly sunny and very mild conditions likely returning to western Oregon Sunday and Monday. Increasing south-southwesterly flow aloft will likely bring a weakening weather system onshore by late Monday, with rain and much cooler temperatures Tuesday. Showers will taper off Wednesday with a break in the weather possible on Thursday. The next weather system will head mainly into southern Oregon on Friday, but it will bring at least a chance of rain, and mountain snow, to all of western Oregon. Tomorrow (27 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Showers Ending. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 45/57 Sun (28 Feb): Partly to Mostly Sunny and Very Mild. 37/60 Mon (01 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Continued Mild. Freezing Level Near 7000 feet. 38/62 Tue (02 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 44/53 Wed (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 38/54 Thu (04 Mar): Partly Sunny. Increasing Clouds Late. 39/57 Fri (05 Mar): Rain Likely South. Chance of Rain North. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 41/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us