[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Wed Feb 10 12:13:01 PST 2010




Daily Smoke Management Forecast




Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.

Issued: 
     Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 at 12:00pm.

Burn Advisory:
     Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 3:30pm.
     Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm.

      ...The rules for stack burning have changed.  Stack burning
     permits must be obtained from ODA Smoke Management Personnel...

Weather Discussion:
     Satelite imagery showed a solid band of clouds extending eastward, from offshore, across
     western and central Oregon late this morning.  Clouds were also increasing across the
     eastern third of the state.  Doppler radar and surface reports showed light precipitation
     falling over most of western Oregon.  ODOT road cameras showed light snow falling over the
     Cascade passes, where temperatures were just above freezing.  Willamette Valley and coastal
     temperatures were in the low to mid 40s

     The ODA surface analysis showed southeasterly pressure gradients across western Oregon,
     with winds in the 5-15 mph range helping to improve ventilation conditions over the
     Willamette Valley.  Skies will remain cloudy this afternoon, with occasional light rain,
     as a weakening frontal system stalls over the region.  Highs today should stay in the mid
     to upper 40s, across the Willamette Valley, with low 50s possible along the coast.
 
     Southeasterly winds will turn more southerly this afternoon and increase slightly.
     The snow level is forecast to remain near 4000 feet this afternoon, with a couple of inches
     of snow possible over the passes, before snow levels rise above the passes this evening.
     The frontal system is forecast to stall over western Oregon today and then push northward,
     as an active warm front, tonight and early Thursday.  That should keep snow levels above
     the Cascade passes tonight through much of Thursday, with increasing rain and wind.

Surface Winds:
     S 10-20 this afternoon.
Transport Winds:
     SSW 20 this afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
     Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet.  Ventilation index 50.
High Temperature:
     Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47.
Humidities:
     Minimum relative humidity will be near 77%.
Sunrise/Sunset:
     Salem sunset tonight: 5:33pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:19am.

Extended Outlook:
     Thursday should be quite wet and mild across western Oregon.  Steady rain, from a
     warm front, in the morning, will likely be followed by cloudy and mild conditions around
     midday.  The trailing cold front is forecast to increase the rain and wind Thursday
     afternoon and evening, especially along the coast.  Southerly winds could gust to around
     60 mph along the immediate coast late Thursday afternoon and evening, with gusts to near
     30 mph possible in the Willamette Valley.  Snow will be confined to the higher elevations
     of the Cascades on Thursday.  The cold front should drop the snow level to the passes
     Thursday night, as the precipitation tapers off.

     A colder weather system is forecast to spread more rain onshore around midday Friday.
     The snow level will likely stay near or slightly below the Cascade passes.  Southeasterly
     winds will not be as brisk with this system but should provide good ventilation conditions.
     A transitory ridge of high pressure may dry things out Saturday, especially south, as a
     warm front brushes by to our north.  Afternoon temperatures could become quite mild
     Saturday.  A weak cold front may bring some light rain Sunday, with snow levels likely
     remaining above the Cascade passes.  Another warm front will bring a chance of rain
     Monday, with a weak cold front coming onshore Tuesday.  Next wednesday looks dry & mild.

Thu (11 Feb):  Rain Likely.  Blustery Along the Coast Late.  Snow Level 5500 Feet.  42/55

Fri (12 Feb):  Increasing Rain in the Afternoon.  Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet.  40/52

Sat (13 Feb):  Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North.  Mild.  Snow Level 6000 Feet.  40/58

Sun (14 Feb):  Mostly Cloudy and Mild.  Chance of Light Rain.  Snow Level 5500 Feet.  41/53

Mon (15 Feb):  Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North.  Snow Level 6000 Feet.  39/54

Tue (16 Feb):  Chance of Rain.  Snow Level 5000 Feet.  37/54

Wed (17 Feb):  Areas of AM Fog.  Becoming Partly Sunny & Mild in the Afternoon.  36/57

ODA Meteorologist
weather at oda.state.or.us



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