From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jan 19 09:14:30 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 19 Jan 2010 11:14:30 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, January 19th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, January 19th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is Recommended with suggested burn times from now until 3:00pm. The rules for stack burning have changed. In 2010, the total number of acres that can be stack-burned in the Willamette Valley is 1000 acres. Pre-registration is now required, and stack burning permits must be obtained from an ODA staff member. Weather Discussion: A very typical \"El Nino\" weather pattern has set up across the Pacific Ocean. A strong jet stream is directing a series of potent storms into California, with an extremely mild south-southwesterly flow aloft over Washington and Oregon. The bulk of the rainfall from the incoming weather systems will stay south of the Willamette Valley, this week, but some rain and blustery winds can be expected at times...mainly south. At the surface, low-pressure centers have been approaching the northern California coastline and then turning north, and moving across the offshore waters of the Oregon Coast. The latest in a series of low-pressure systems moved northward off of the Oregon Coast overnight and was centered about 300 miles west of Astoria at mid-morning. It brought blustery winds to western Oregon in the early morning hours but stayed a little too far offshore to produce damaging winds. Southerly winds, gusting to about 45 mph, swept across the coast and into much of the Willamette Valley shortly after midnight. Winds had turned southeasterly and decreased by mid-morning. Another low-pressure wave was forming along the frontal zone and was bringing farily strong southerly winds to southwestern Oregon this morning. Medford was getting gusts to just over 50 mph at mid-morning. Some increase in southerly winds is likely this afternoon, along the coast and in the Willamette Valley, as this low-pressure wave continues northward. More showers will also rotate northward, across western Oregon, but rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant in the Willamette Valley. The bulk of the rain is expected to remain south of the Oregon/California border. The air aloft remains unseasonably mild. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at 5300 and 5800 feet respectively this morning. ODOT road cameras showed a mixture and rain and snow over the Cascade passes, with pass temperatures near freezing. As a broad upper-level trough slowly approaches the coastline, the air aloft will cool...lowering the snow level to below the passes by tonight. However, significant snow accumulations are not likely, due to the lack of precipitation. Slight cooling aloft and southerly transport winds will make for good ventilation conditions today. Skies should remain mostly cloudy across western Oregon with a few showers and some increase in the southerly winds this afternoon. Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid 50s (about 10 degrees above normal). Surface Winds: Var 0-10 this morning, SSE 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 15 this morning, S 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 55. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:43am. Extended Outlook: The next low-pressure system, in the latest series of storms, is forecast to approach the northern California coastline on Wednesday. That should keep skies mostly cloudy across western Oregon and induce an offshore low-level flow. Rain will likely spread northward, at least into the southern Willamette Valley, by Wednesday afternoon. Once again, the bulk of the rain from this system is forecast to push into California. As the low-pressure system tracks northward, near the Oregon Coast, Wednesday night and early Thursday, it may bring a burst of strong southerly winds to sections of western Oregon. Depending on the track of this system, it has the potential to produce locally damaging winds, especially along the coast and across southwestern Oregon. The parent upper-level trough is forecast to move inland Friday, with showers and slightly lower snow levels. A transitory upper-level ridge will likely bring some drying over the weekend. The next weather system is forecast to come onshore Sunday night. Some drying will move onshore by Tuesday. Tomorrow (20 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Rain Spreading North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 39/50 Thu (21 Jan): Rain and Windy Early...Turning to Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 38/50 Fri (22 Jan): Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 36/48 Sat (23 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 35/49 Sun (24 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Rain Late. Snow Rising to 4000 Feet. 34/48 Mon (25 Jan): Rain Likely. Snow Level 4500 Feet. 39/50 Tue (26 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. 37/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jan 19 11:59:00 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 19 Jan 2010 13:59:00 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, January 19th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Tuesday, January 19th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed... In 2010, the total number of acres that can be stack-burned in the Willamette Valley is 1000 acres. Pre-registration is now required, and stack burning permits must be obtained from an ODA staff member. Weather Discussion: A very typical \"El Nino\" weather pattern has set up across the Pacific Ocean. A strong jet stream is directing a series of potent storms into California, with an extremely mild south-southwesterly flow aloft over Washington and Oregon. The bulk of the rainfall from the incoming weather systems will stay south of the Willamette Valley, this week, but some rain and blustery winds can be expected at times...mainly south. At the surface, low-pressure centers have been approaching the northern California coastline and then turning north, and moving across the offshore waters of the Oregon Coast. A fairly impressive system moved northward, along the Oregon Coast, Sunday night, bringing damaging south winds to the coast and sections of the Willamette Valley. Coastal wind gusts were generally in the 60-80 mph range with local gusts to around 50 mph in the Willamette Valley. The \"parent\" surface low-pressure center had moved to well off of the northern Oregon Coast by late this morning, but a weaker, secondary low-pressure area formed along the frontal boundary and moved northward, just off the Oregon Coast, overnight. It brought another round of blustery winds to western Oregon, in the early morning hours, but winds were not as strong with this system as they were with the previous one. Southerly winds, gusting to about 45 mph, swept across the coast and into much of the Willamette Valley shortly after midnight. Winds rapidly slackened off across the Willamette Valley, by mid-morning as the low-pressure center moved northward, to off the Washington Coast. Another low-pressure center was forming along the frontal zone and was centered near the southern Oregon Coast late this morning. It was bringing farily strong southerly winds to southwestern Oregon. Medford has been getting brisk southerly wind-gusts, to around 50 mph, since 7am. The low-pressure center was helping to increase the offshore gradients across the Willamette Valley, with easterly wind-gusts increasing to around 35 mph in the Portland area. Winds in the central and southern Willamette Valley were light. Some increase in south-southeasterly winds is likely this afternoon, along the coast and in the Willamette Valley, as this low-pressure wave continues northward. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies covering most of Oregon, with some filtered sunshine over the northeastern corner of the state. Radar showed only a few sprinkles north of Roseburg, with spotty rainfall over southwestern and south-central Oregon. Some showers will rotate northward, into the Willamette Valley, later today, but rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant. The bulk of the rain is expected to remain south of the Oregon/California border. The air aloft remains unseasonably mild. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at 5300 and 5800 feet respectively this morning. ODOT road cameras showed just wet pavement over the Cascade passes, with pass temperatures in the mid 30s late this morning. As a broad upper-level trough slowly approaches the coastline, the air aloft will cool...lowering the snow level to below the passes by tonight. However, significant snow accumulations are not likely, due to a lack of precipitation. Slight cooling aloft and southerly transport winds will make for good ventilation conditions today. Midday temperatures were already well into the 50s across the northern Willamette Valley, and along the north coast, where easterly winds were mixing warm air aloft down to the surface. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 40s across the southern Willamette Valley, where winds were light. Skies should remain mostly cloudy across western Oregon with an increasng chance of light showers this afternoon...mainly south. Mild easterly winds will continue across the north valley, with increasing south-southeasterly winds also helping temperatures climb well into the 50s across the south valley this afternoon (about 10 degrees above normal). Surface Winds: SSE 5-15 G25 this afternoon in the south valley. E 15-25 G35 in the north valley. Transport Winds: S 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 55. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:43am. Extended Outlook: The next low-pressure system, in the latest series of storms, is forecast to approach the northern California coastline on Wednesday. That should keep skies mostly cloudy across western Oregon with increasing offshore low-level flow. Rain will likely spread northward, at least into the southern Willamette Valley, by Wednesday afternoon. Once again, the bulk of the rain from this system is forecast to push into California. As the low-pressure system tracks northward, near the Oregon Coast, Wednesday night and early Thursday, it may bring a burst of strong southerly winds to sections of western Oregon. Tis system has the potential to produce locally damaging winds, especially along the coast and across southwestern Oregon, depending on its exact track. The broad upper-level trough is forecast to move onshore Friday, with showers and slightly lower snow levels. A transitory upper-level ridge will likely bring some drying over the weekend. The next weather system is forecast to come onshore Sunday night. It also has the potential to bring strong winds to mainly the coastal strip. Another upper-level ridge is forecast to dry things out Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tomorrow (20 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Rain Spreading North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 39/50 Thu (21 Jan): Rain and Windy Early...Turning to Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 38/50 Fri (22 Jan): Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 36/48 Sat (23 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 35/49 Sun (24 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Rain Late. Snow Rising to 4000 Feet. 34/48 Mon (25 Jan): Rain Likely. Snow Level 4500 Feet. 39/50 Tue (26 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jan 20 09:11:18 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2010 11:11:18 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, January 20th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, January 20th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 3:00pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed... In 2010, the total number of acres that can be stack-burned in the Willamette Valley is 1000 acres. Pre-registration is now required, and stack burning permits must be obtained from an ODA staff member. Weather Discussion: A classic mid-winter \"El Nino\" weather pattern has set up across the Pacific Ocean. A strong jet stream is continuing to direct strong storm systems into California, with an unseasonably mild south-southwesterly flow aloft over Washington and Oregon. The bulk of the rainfall from the incoming weather systems will stay south of the Willamette Valley, this week, but some rain and blustery winds can be expected at times...mainly south and along the coast. Infrared satellite imagery showed a broad cloud-shield, associated with a strong cold front, extending across all of northern and central California. Cloudy skies stretched northward over southwestern Oregon, with high clouds extending as far north as the Washington/Oregon border. This system was bringing heavy rain and strong southerly winds to the northern and central California coastal areas, with moderate rain pushing northward into extreme southwestern Oregon. Doppler radar showed light rain spreading as far northward as the southern Willamette Valley. The low-pressure center associated with this cold front was just off the northern California coastline at mid-morning and is forecast to slowly move north, to off the northern Oregon coast, by Thursday morning. It will increase the offshore gradients across the Willamette Valley today, and then turn the surface flow strongly southerly by Thursday morning. Some rain will likely make it northward, across western Oregon, this afternoon, but the bulk of the rain from this system will stay over extreme southern Oregon and California. The air aloft remains unseasonably mild. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured near 5000 this morning. ODOT road cameras showed light snow showers over the central Cascade passes this morning, with generally dry conditions in the north. Pass temperatures were near the freezing mark. The air mass aloft will likely warm slightly today, ahead of the approaching cold front, so ventilation conditions are not expected to be as good today as they were on Tuesday. Temperatures were mild again this morning across western Oregon, with mid-morning readings mostly in the low to mid 40s. Winds were mostly light, with a slowly increasing offshore flow. Clouds should thicken, from south to north, today, with an increasing chance of light rain. Increasing northeasterly winds will help to mix warmer air aloft down to the surface, which should help afternoon temperatures climb, once again, into the mid 50s(about 10 degrees above normal). Surface Winds: NE 3-10 this morning, NE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: ESE 10 this morning, ENE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 38. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 55. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 50%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:04pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:42am. Extended Outlook: The low-pressure system is forecast to track northward, just off of the Oregon Coast, Wednesday night and early Thursday, it will likely bring a burst of strong southerly winds to the Oregon Coast, where high wind watches are in effect for later tonight through Thursday. Depending on the track of the low-pressure center, strong southerly winds may also briefly make it into the Willamette Valley Thursday morning. Rainfall from this system is forecast to be light. A broad upper-level trough is forecast to move onshore Friday, with showers and slightly lower snow levels. A transitory upper-level ridge will likely bring some drying over the weekend. The next weather system is forecast to come onshore Sunday night. It also has the potential to bring strong winds to mainly the northern coastal strip. A weak upper-level ridge may briefly dry things out Tuesday night, but another mild storm is forecast to come onshore Wednesday afternoon. Tomorrow (21 Jan): Rain and Windy Early...Turning to Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 40/50 Fri (22 Jan): Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 36/48 Sat (23 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 35/49 Sun (24 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Rain Late. Snow Rising to 4000 Feet. 34/48 Mon (25 Jan): Rain Likely. Snow Level 4500 Feet. 39/50 Tue (26 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/50 Wed (27 Jan): Increasing Chance of Rain. Snow Level Rising to 5-6000 Feet. 37/49 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jan 21 09:13:07 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 21 Jan 2010 11:13:07 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, January 21st, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, January 21st, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:00pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed... In 2010, a total of 1000 acres can be stack-burned in the Willamette Valley. Pre-registration is now required, and stack burning permits must be obtained from an ODA staff member. Weather Discussion: A strong jet stream is continuing to drive potent storm systems into California, with an unseasonably mild southerly flow aloft over Washington and Oregon. Considerable amounts of rain have been falling, and will continue to fall, across California, but mostly just bands of very light rain have been rotating as far north as Oregon. The exception is along the extreme southern Oregon Coast, where Brookings has picked up close to an inch of rain in the past 24 hours. Infrared satellite imagery showed two distinct weather systems affecting the west coast this morning. One low-pressure center was just off the central Oregon coastline, with another just off the central California coastline. Both systems have very low barometric pressure, which was reducing the pressure-gradients across Oregon. The strongest pressure-gradients were south of the second low-pressure center, over southern California, where winds were gusting to near 50 mph in the greater San Diego area. Meanwhile, in our neck of the woods, southerly winds began increasing, from south to north, along the Oregon coast and in the Willamette Valley early this morning, as the offshore low-pressure center slowly weakened and migrated northward. Eugene briefly had southerly gusts to about 35 mph around 6am, and Corvallis recorded gusts to near 30 mph around 7am. Southerly winds had progressed northward, into the Salem area, by 8am, but were only around 10 mph. Winds in the northern valley were still light at mid-morning. South winds were a little stronger along the central and southern coast but mostly gusting to around 30 mph. North of the low-pressure system, the north coast was still getting a light easterly flow. The low-pressure center is forecast to continue drifting northward and should be well off the Washington coast, by this afternoon. Southerly winds will advance northward, across the remainder of the Oregon coast, and the Willamette Valley, later this morning. However, winds are not expected to be very strong, with gusts only to about 40 mph on the coast and 15-25 in the Willamette Valley. Winds will decrease later this afternoon. Skies should stay mostly cloudy today, with a little rain at times. Once again, rainfall totals will be minimal. Mid-morning temperatures were mostly in the 40s across Western Oregon. The air aloft is still on the mild side of normal, for mid-January. The freezing level is near 5000 feet, but ODOT road cameras do show a fresh covering of light snow over the Cascades passes this morning. Pass temperatures were near 30 degrees. There will be only slight cooling aloft today, in the wake of this morning\'s weather system, so mild southerly winds should lift coastal and valley temperatures to near 50 by midday. Highs should be in the 50-55 degree range this afternoon, with a continued chance of light showers. Surface Winds: SSE 10-20 G30 this morning, S 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 20 this morning, S 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 50%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:05pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:42am. Extended Outlook: A broad upper-level trough is forecast to move onshore Friday, with skies staying mostly cloudy along with some showers. Snow levels should remain just below the Cascade passes, where a couple of inches are possible. Valley temperatures will likely cool a few degrees from today. A transitory upper-level ridge will likely bring some drying over the weekend. A warm front, from the next weather system, is forecast to bring rain back onshore by Sunday afternoon, along with rising snow levels. The following cold front has the potential to bring strong southerly winds to mainly the coastal strip Sunday night. It appears as if energy from this storm may get split apart, as it comes onshore, with the bulk of the moisture heading both north and south of Oregon. Skies should stay mostly cloudy Monday, with a split-flow pattern, in the wake of Sunday night\'s storm, bringing only a few light showers to the state. A weak ridge of high pressure will bring further drying on Tuesday. Another mild storm is forecast to come onshore late Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow (22 Jan): Scattered Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/47 Sat (23 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 35/49 Sun (24 Jan): Increasing Rain and Turning Breezy Late. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 34/47 Mon (25 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. A few Showers. Snow Level 4500 Feet. 41/50 Tue (26 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/50 Wed (27 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Snow Level Rising to 5-6000 Feet. 37/50 Thu (28 Jan): Rain Likely and Mild. Snow Level 6000 feet. 42/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jan 21 12:26:10 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 21 Jan 2010 14:26:10 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, January 21st, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, January 21st, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:00pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed... In 2010, a total of 1000 acres can be stack-burned in the Willamette Valley. Pre-registration is now required, and stack burning permits must be obtained from an ODA staff member. Weather Discussion: A strong jet stream is continuing to drive potent storm systems into California, with an unseasonably mild southerly flow aloft over Washington and Oregon. Considerable amounts of rain have been falling, and will continue to fall, across California, but mostly just bands of very light rain have been rotating as far north as Oregon. The exception is along the extreme southern Oregon Coast, where Brookings has picked up close to an inch of rain in the past 24 hours. Infrared satellite imagery showed two distinct low-pressure centers affecting the west coast late this morning. One was about 150 miles west of Astoria, Oregon, and another was just off the central California coastline. Both systems have very low barometric pressure, but the combination of systems was not allowing for very strong pressure-gradients to develop over Oregon. Southerly winds did pick up, from south to north, along the Oregon coast and in the Willamette Valley this morning, but most areas have only seen gusts to about 30 mph or less. The southerly winds had advanced as far north as McMinnville, in the Willamette Valley, by midday. As the system off the coast of Astoria continues to weaken and migrate slowly northward, southerly winds will advance onto the northern Oregon coast and into the extreme northern Willamette Valley this afternoon. Winds in the Portland area were still light easterly at midday. Winds are not expected to be very strong, with gusts only to about 30 mph on the coast and 15-25 in the Willamette Valley. Winds will decrease later this afternoon. The air aloft is still mild, for mid-January. The freezing level is near 5000 feet, and ODOT road cameras showed wet pavement over the Cascade passes at midday. Pass temperatures were well above freezing. Only slight cooling aloft is forecast for this afternoon. Satellite imagery was showing ample sunbreaks south of the low-pressure center, over most of western Oregon, with very little shower activity. A little sunshine was combining with the mild south breeze to lift valley temperatures well into the 50s. Valley highs should climb into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon, which is near some daily records and 10-15 degrees above normal. We can thank El Nino for this mild mid-winter weather. Surface heating could create enough instability to trigger a few light showers this afternoon. Surface Winds: S 7-17 G25...slowly decreasing this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 40%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:05pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:42am. Extended Outlook: A broad upper-level trough is forecast to move onshore Friday, with mostly cloudy and some showers. Snow levels should remain just below the Cascade passes, where a couple of inches are possible. Valley temperatures will likely cool a few degrees from today\'s near-record highs. A transitory upper-level ridge will likely bring some drying over the weekend. A warm front is forecast to bring rain back onshore by Sunday afternoon, along with rising snow levels. The trailing cold front has the potential to bring strong southerly winds to mainly the coastal strip Sunday night. It appears as if energy from this storm may get split apart, as it comes onshore, with the bulk of the moisture heading both north and south of Oregon. That is very typical of an \"El Nino influenced\" weather pattern. Skies should stay mostly cloudy Monday, with a split-flow pattern, in the wake of Sunday night\'s storm, bringing only a few light showers to the state. A weak ridge of high pressure will bring further drying on Tuesday. Another mild storm is forecast to come onshore late Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow (22 Jan): Scattered Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/50 Sat (23 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 35/49 Sun (24 Jan): Increasing Rain and Turning Breezy Late. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 34/47 Mon (25 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. A Few Showers. Snow Level 4500 Feet. 41/50 Tue (26 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/50 Wed (27 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Snow Level Rising to 5-6000 Feet. 37/50 Thu (28 Jan): Rain Likely and Mild. Snow Level 6000 feet. 42/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jan 22 09:10:47 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 22 Jan 2010 11:10:47 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, January 22nd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, January 22nd, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 10:00am to 3:00pm. ...The rules for stack burning have changed... In 2010, a total of 1000 acres can be stack-burned in the Willamette Valley. Pre-registration is now required, and stack burning permits must be obtained from an ODA staff member. Weather Discussion: Two strong low-pressure areas dominated the weather scene along the west coast on Thursday. One circulation center brought rain windy conditions to much of California, while the other weakened and moved slowly north, along the Oregon coast. The latter system brought very mild southerly winds to western Oregon Thursday afternoon with very little rainfall, except over the extreme southwestern corner of the state. Temperatures climbed into the balmy mid to upper 50s...more than 10 degrees above normal. Salem was one of the warmest spots in western Oregon with a high of 58 degrees. Warm southeasterly winds also reached east of the Cascades, with downtown Pendleton recording a high Thursday of 62 degrees. The low-pressure center off the Oregon coast weakened and drifted northwestward overnight. It was well off the Washington coast this morning and not much of a factor. Meanwhile, the California system swept northeastward, across Nevada, overnight and was moving into southern Idaho this morning. The counterclockwise circulation around it was spreading clouds and light precipitation across all of Oregon this morning. The freezing levels over Oregon and western Idaho had dropped below 4000 feet by early this morning, with areas of light snow extending westward from eastern Oregon to the Oregon Cascade passes. Very light snow was falling this morning from the Bend/Redmond area, to Klamath Falls, to Burns. After pushing over 60 degrees Thursday afternoon, Pendleton was in the upper 20s this morning and could see a few snowflakes today. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies also extending over western Oregon, with Doppler radar and surface reports showing widespread areas of light rain. Temperatures along the coast and in the western valleys were generally in the low to mid 40s. Cascade pass temperatures were just below freezing, as well most areas in central and eastern Oregon. As the weather system over Idaho exits eastward, another weak upper-level disturbance is forecast to rotate onshore into southwestern Oregon and northwestern California. That will keep skies generally cloudy across Oregon today with areas of light rain and higher elevation snow. Willamette Valley temperatures will be markedly cooler today, with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees...much closer to normal. Pressure gradients are not very strong today, with light southerly winds forecast to continue across western Oregon. Surface Winds: S 5-10 this morning, S 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 10 this morning, SSW 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 36. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 49. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:06pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:41am. Extended Outlook: A transitory upper-level ridge will likely bring some drying by Saturday afternoon. A warm front is forecast to bring rain back onshore by Sunday night, along with rising snow levels. The trailing cold front has the potential to bring strong southerly winds to mainly the coastal strip Sunday night. It appears as if energy from this storm may get split apart, as it comes onshore, with the bulk of the moisture heading both north and south of Oregon. However, it should bring more rain to the Willamette Valley than the past couple of weaker weather systems. Rain will slowly taper off late Monday and Tuesday, with a split-flow jet stream pattern developing. Another mild storm is forecast to come onshore late Wednesday and Thursday, with showers and lowering snow levels on Friday. Sat (23 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 35/49 Sun (24 Jan): Increasing Rain and Wind Late. Snow Level Rising to 4000 Feet. 34/47 Mon (25 Jan): Rain Decreasing. Snow Level 4500 Feet. 41/50 Tue (26 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/50 Wed (27 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Snow Level Rising to 5-6000 Feet. 37/50 Thu (28 Jan): Rain Likely and Mild. Snow Level 6000 feet. 42/54 Fri (29 Jan): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level 4500 Feet. 37/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jan 25 09:00:12 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2010 11:00:12 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, January 25th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, January 25th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 3:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. ...The rules for stack burning have changed... In 2010, a total of 1000 acres can be stack-burned in the Willamette Valley. Pre-registration is now required, and stack burning permits must be obtained from an ODA staff member Weather Discussion: A fairly potent storm system dumped from one-half to one inch of rain across western Oregon Sunday. Snow levels were just low enough for the precipitation to fall as snow over the Cascade passes, where up to a foot of new snow fell. The rain and snow tapered off overnight. Cloudy skies and occasional light rain held western Oregon temperatures mostly in the low to mid 40s overnight. Skies remained cloudy over the state this morning with a moist southwesterly flow aloft. Doppler radar and surface reports showed bands of very light rain continuing to come onshore an rotate across western Oregon. ODOT road cameras showed snow showers over the Cascade passes, with the freezing level over Salem measured this morning near 5000 feet. The ODA surface analysis showed south-southeasterly pressure gradients across western Oregon with surface winds generally in the 5-10 mph range. Skies will stay mostly cloudy today across all of Oregon today, with continued moist southwesterly flow aloft. A split-flow pattern in the jet stream will direct a weather system into mainly southern and southeastern Oregon later today and tonight, with most of the rain staying south and east of the Willamette Valley. However, there will continue to be a chance for light rain, at times, across the valley. Snow levels should stay low enough for a few more inches of snow over the Cascade passes today, especially south, where precipitation will be the heaviest. South winds will likely warm afternoon temperatures into the lower 50s, across the Willamette Valley, and provide good ventilation. Surface Winds: S 5-12 this morning, S 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 12 this morning, S 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 24. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 66%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:10pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:38am. Extended Outlook: Rain showers will taper off, from west to east, across the state on Tuesday. A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather Wednesday and most of Thursday, with the next weather system coming onshore Thursday night. That looks to be yet another mild storm, with the snow level rising to at or above 6000 feet. A weak cold front should push through the region by Friday, lowering the snow level back to near the Cascade passes. Tomorrow (26 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/50 Wed (27 Jan): Partly Sunny. Snow Level Rising to 5-6000 Feet. 35/50 Thu (28 Jan): Increasing Clouds and Mild. Snow Level 6-7000 feet. 35/52 Fri (29 Jan): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 4500 Feet. 37/50 Sat (30 Jan): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/49 Sun (31 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 35/50 Mon (01 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jan 26 09:00:07 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2010 11:00:07 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, January 26th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, January 26th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A low-pressure system tracked eastward, across extreme southern Oregon, overnight and was centered over southeastern Oregon at mid-morning. The counter-clockwise circulation around this system spread clouds over all of Oregon overnight, but precipitation fell mainly over southwestern Oregon and areas east of the Cascades. There is cool air aloft over the region, with the freezing levels over Salem, Medford, and Boise measured below 5000 feet this morning. Widespread light rain and snow was falling across central and eastern Oregon this morning, with upslope conditions locally enhancing the snowfall on the eastern slopes of the Cascades (the opposite side of the mountains from where upsloping snows usually occur). Winter weather advisories are in effect, through early this afternoon, for the Redmond and Bend area of central Oregon, where 1-3 inches of additional snow could fall, before the precipitation tapers off later this afternoon. Light snow was also falling over the Cascade passes this morning, and ODOT road cameras showed generally snow-covered road surfaces at pass level. Meanwhile, cloudy skies and a few sprinkles held western valley temperatures mostly in the low to mid 40s overnight. Skies are cloudy over the state late this morning with areas of fog west of the Cascades. Doppler radar and surface reports showed light rain and snow from the Cascades eastward but little to no precipitation west of the Cascades. The ODA surface analysis showed low-pressure over southeastern Oregon and very weak high pressure over western Oregon. Winds in the Willamette Valley were generlaly 3 mph or less, which was contributing to the formation of fog. Mid-morning temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the mid 40s across western Oregon, with most areas east of the Cascades in the 30s. The low-pressure system over southeastern Oregon will continue to progress eastward today, with a split-flow westerly jet stream pattern over Oregon. Skies should remain mostly cloudy across the state, with areas of rain and snow, mainly from the Cascades eastward, slowly tapering off this afternoon and evening. Not much windflow is forecast for western Oregon, so ventilation conditions will be poor. Due to the lack of wind, morning low-level temperature inversions will be tough to break this afternoon. As a result, high temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than on Monday. Highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees, which is still above average for late January. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, Var 0-5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 4 this morning, WSW 4 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 8. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 63%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:12pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:37am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather Wednesday and most of Thursday, with rising freezing levels. The western valleys should get a good dose of fog overnight tonight and Wednesday night with only partial afternoon clearing. Overnight minimums will be cooler, and high temperatures will vary, depending on the local duration of fog. The next weather system is forecast to bring rain to the coast and the western valleys on Friday, with snow levels lowering back down to near pass level in the Cascades. The next weather system is forecast to come onshore about next Tuesday. Tomorrow (27 Jan): Partly Sunny After AM Fog. Snow Level Rising to 5-6000 Feet. 34/49 Thu (28 Jan): Increasing Clouds After AM Fog. Snow Level 6-7000 feet. 35/50 Fri (29 Jan): Rain Developing. Mild. Snow Level Dropping to 4500 Feet. 37/52 Sat (30 Jan): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/49 Sun (31 Jan): Partly Cloudy. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 35/50 Mon (01 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/50 Tue (02 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jan 26 12:07:56 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2010 14:07:56 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, January 26th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...No Updates Before Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 at 9:00am... Issued: Tuesday, January 26th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A low-pressure system tracked eastward, across extreme southern Oregon, overnight and was centered over southern Idaho late this morning. The counter-clockwise circulation around this system was continuing to spin clouds over Oregon, with some areas of light rain and snow east of the Cascades, where the snow level is about 3500 feet. Winter weather advisories have been cancelled for the Bend/Redmond region, of central Oregon, where the snow has tapered off to just a few flurries. Light snow fell over the Cascade passes this morning, but the snow had tapered off there by late this morning with temperatures climbing above freezing. ODOT road cameras showed the snowy road surfaces, from earlier this morning, were turning into wet pavement. West of the Cascades, skies began to clear by mid-morning, with some sunbreaks locally pushing temperatures into the 50s. Winds continued to be light, with the ODA surface analysis showing weak high pressure building over the region, in the wake of the system moving into Idaho. The low-pressure system over southern Idaho will continue to progress eastward today, with a split-flow westerly jet stream pattern over Oregon. A very weak upper-level disturbance was pushing a narrow line of developing showers onto the northern and central Oregon coast late this morning. This disturbance will combine with daytime heating to maintain a threat of showers through this afternoon across the Willamette Valley. Light shower activity may provide enough mixing of the air mass to lift surface temperatures into the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Corvallis was already 54 degrees late this morning, with Newport at 50. Most of the Willamette Valley was still in the mid 40s. Skies should remain mostly cloudy across the state this afternoon, with the best chance of sunbreaks over northwestern Oregon. Areas of rain and snow, east of the Cascades, will slowly taper off and move east of the region. Weak windflow may now allow portions of the Willamette Valley to break 50 degrees this afternoon, while other areas climb into the low to mid 50s (well above normal). Surface Winds: Var 0-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: WSW 4 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 8. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 63%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:12pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:37am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather Wednesday and most of Thursday, with rising freezing levels. The western valleys should get a good dose of fog overnight tonight and Wednesday night with only partial afternoon clearing. Overnight minimums will be cooler, and high temperatures will vary, depending on the local duration of fog. The next weather system is forecast to bring rain to the coast and the western valleys on Friday, with snow levels lowering back down to near pass level in the Cascades. Another mild weather system is forecast to come onshore about next Tuesday. Tomorrow (27 Jan): Partly Sunny After AM Fog. Snow Level Rising to 5-6000 Feet. 34/49 Thu (28 Jan): Increasing Clouds After AM Fog. Snow Level 6-7000 feet. 35/50 Fri (29 Jan): Rain Developing. Mild. Snow Level Dropping to 4500 Feet. 37/52 Sat (30 Jan): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/49 Sun (31 Jan): Partly Cloudy. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 35/50 Mon (01 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/50 Tue (02 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us