From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 1 09:15:48 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 01 Mar 2010 11:15:48 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 1st, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, March 1st, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 10:00am to 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure dried things out over the weekend, with the freezing level over western Oregon rising from around 5000 feet on Saturday to 10,000 feet by Sunday afternoon. A few showers lingered on Saturday, mainly from the coast range westward, with mostly sunny skies on Sunday lifting coastal temperatures into the mid 50s and Willamette Valley highs to near 60 degrees. The upper-level ridge axis had shifted to over eastern Oregon this morning, with increasing southerly flow aloft over western Oregon. The air aloft is still very warm, with a nearly 11,000 foot freezing level, measured early this morning, over both Salem and Medford. Satellite imagery showed considerable high clouds had advanced over the western two-thirds of both Washington and Oregon, ahead of a weakening offshore weather system. That helped to limit fog formation in the valleys of western Oregon this morning, although some sections of the Willamette Valley had visibilities reduced to one-quarter of a mile by fog. Morning mimimums only dropped into the upper 30s and low 40s across the Willamette Valley. Hillsboro dipped down to 38 degrees and Eugene bottomed out at 39. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed weak easterly pressure-gradients across all of Oregon. The Willaemtte Valley is protected from easterly winds, except for near the western end of the Columbia Gorge, so surface winds were mostly calm across the valley. Due to considerable low clouds and areas of fog, valley temperatures had only risen in the low to mid 40s. However, Troutdale had warmed into the low 50s, due to better mixing of the air, via easterly outflow from the Gorge gusting to around 25 mph. Thickening high and mid-level clouds will filter the sunshine today across western Oregon, with continued light winds. Temperatures aloft are warm enough to support valley highs climbing into the 60s this afternoon, but cloud-cover and poor mixing of the air mass will likely combine to prohibit valley temperatures from climbing out of the mid to upper 50s. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, Var 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 3 this morning, S 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 12. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 58. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 57%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:00pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:48am. Extended Outlook: Increasing southerly flow aloft will eventually bring rain onshore overnight, with rain at times and slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday. The snow level will drop to around 5000 feet by Tuesday afternoon, with a few inches of new snow likely in higher regions of the Cascades. The next weather system will head mainly into southern Oregon and northern California, on Wednesday, with only a chance of rain as far north as the Willamette Valley. It has a little colder air aloft associated with it, so snow levels may drop as low as the Cascade passes. A chance of showers may linger into Thursday, with the next system, on Friday, will also encounter the split-flow pattern in the jet stream offshore and move mainly into California. A ridge of high pressure may bring some dry weather back over the weekend. The next weather system is forecast to take aim a little more at Oregon, instead of California, Sunday night and Monday, bringing more rain and mountain snow. Tomorrow (02 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 5-6000 Feet. 45/55 Wed (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/54 Thu (04 Mar): Partly Sunny. Slight Chance of Showers. 37/54 Fri (05 Mar): Rain Likely South. Chance of Rain North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 39/54 Sat (06 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 37/55 Sun (07 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. 37/56 Mon (08 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 2 09:07:56 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:07:56 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: Increasing south-southwesterly flow aloft brought a weakening weather system onshore overnight, with clouds covering virtually all of the Pacific Northwest this morning. The El Nino driven jet stream remains focused at California, with this weather system not potent enough to produce much rain as far north as Oregon. Generally just sprinkles fell overnight across most of the coastline and in the Willamette Valley. Astoria, Newport, and McMinnville all picked up measurable rain, but only a couple hundredths of an inch. Brookings, on the extreme south Oregon coast, received 15 hundredths of an inch overnight, with spotty sprinkles reported across the interior of southwestern Oregon. No rainfall was reported east of the Cascades. Cloudy skies held overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 40s across western Oregon. Some spots east of the Cascades dropped to near the freezing mark, but it was generally a mild night, statewide, for early March. The air aloft has cooled a little since Monday, with the freezing level measured at 6700 feet early this morning over both Salem and Medford. Continued slow cooling aloft should drop the snow level to around 5000 feet by this afternoon, with only minor snow accumulations in the Cascades. Doppler radar showed a narrow band of mostly very light rain extending from near Tillamook to Salem at mid-morning. It was moving north-northeastward and rapidly weakening. Radar does not show any more bands of showers set to rotate northward across the Willamette Valley, but computer models indicate that a spoke of upper-level energy will rotate northward over the region this afternoon, increasing the threat of light showers. The ODA surface analysis showed fairly weak souteasterly pressure gradients across Oregon. Winds were mostly in the 5-15 mph range across the state, except for locations where topography was acting to accelerate the wind, with gusts to around 30 mph in places like Troutdate and La Grande. Considerable middle and high clouds will continue to stream northward over Oregon today. Even with the cloud-cover and slight cooling aloft, southerly surface winds and better mixing of the air mass today will lift valleys highs to about where they were on Monday (mid to upper 50s). Rainfall will be very light and spotty today, with valley totals ranging from nothing to possibly as much as one-tenth of an inch. Surface Winds: SE 5-15 this morning, S 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 20 this morning, SSW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 70. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 64%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:01pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:46am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system will also head mainly into northern California, tonight and Wednesday, with only a chance of rain as far north as the Willamette Valley. This system does have a little colder air aloft associated with it, so snow levels may drop as low as the Cascade passes on Wednesday. A transitory ridge of high pressure will dry things out on Thursday. The next weather system, on Friday, will also encounter the split-flow pattern in the jet stream offshore and move mainly into California. A ridge of high pressure will likely bring dry and mild conditions over most of the weekend, with the next system forecast to come onshore late Sunday. Another weather system is forecast for late next Tuesday. Wed (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/54 Thu (04 Mar): Partly Sunny. 35/55 Fri (05 Mar): Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 38/57 Sat (06 Mar): Partly Sunny. 35/58 Sun (07 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/56 Mon (08 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/53 Tue (09 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain Late. 36/56 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 2 12:08:30 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 02 Mar 2010 14:08:30 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: Increasing south-southwesterly flow aloft spread considerable high and mid-level clouds across the entire Pacific Northwest overnight, in advance of a rapidly weakening frontal system. The El Nino driven jet stream remains focused at California, where the real punch of this system was directed. Not much in the way of rainfall advanced northward over Oregon. Mostly just sprinkles have fallen across western Oregon today, with a few spots receiving minor amounts of measurable rain. Brookings, on the extreme southern Oregon coast, has picked up about two-thirds of an inch of rain today. Elsewhere across western Oregon, amounts have varied from nothing to just under a tenth of an inch. Only some areas of sprinkles have been reported east of the Cascades. The air mass aloft has cooled slightly since Monday, with the freezing level measured at 6700 feet early this morning over both Salem and Medford. Continued slow cooling aloft should drop the snow level to around 5000 feet by this afternoon, but not much snow accumulation is expected due to the lack of precipitation over the Cascades. Doppler radar showed only a few areas of very light rain streaming northward across Oregon at midday. Much of the precipitation showing up on radar was probably not even making it to the ground. Computer models show a spoke of upper-level energy rotating northward, over the region, this afternoon, in association with what\'s left of the surface cold that was moving onshore at midday. That will maintain a few areas of sprinkles or very light rain across the state. The ODA surface analysis showed fairly weak souteasterly pressure gradients across Oregon. Winds had increased to 5-15 mph across western Oregon, with local gusts just over 20 mph. Considerable middle and high clouds will continue to stream northward over Oregon today. Even with the cloud-cover and slight cooling aloft, southerly surface winds and better mixing of the air mass today will lift valleys highs into the upper 50s. Rainfall will be very light and spotty today, with valley totals ranging from nothing to possibly a few hundredths of an inch. Surface Winds: SSW 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 70. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 58. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 53%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:01pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:46am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system will also head mainly into northern California, tonight and Wednesday, with only a chance of rain as far north as the Willamette Valley. This system does have a little colder air aloft associated with it, so snow levels may drop as low as the Cascade passes on Wednesday. A transitory ridge of high pressure will dry things out on Thursday. The next weather system, on Friday, will also encounter the split-flow pattern in the jet stream offshore and move mainly into California. A ridge of high pressure will likely bring dry and mild conditions over most of the weekend, with the next system forecast to come onshore late Sunday. Another weather system is forecast for late next Tuesday. Wed (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/54 Thu (04 Mar): Partly Sunny. 35/55 Fri (05 Mar): Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 38/57 Sat (06 Mar): Partly Sunny. 35/58 Sun (07 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/56 Mon (08 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/53 Tue (09 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain Late. 36/56 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 3 09:08:36 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 03 Mar 2010 11:08:36 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A spoke of upper-level energy rotated across northwestern Oregon Tuesday afternoon, activating a surface front that was moving onshore. Bands of showers developed right over northwestern Oregon. Some sections of the valley escaped with little to no rain, while others picked up from a tenth to a quarter of an inch in a very short time period. The showers rapidly tapered off Tuesday evening, with mostly clouds skies overnight holding valley minimums mostly above the 40 degree mark. Satellite imagery showed the main cloud band from the next weather system stretching from Newport to Klamath Falls southward, into northern and central California. The main punch from this system is headed towards California, with the low-pressure center off the northern California coastline. However, Doppler radar was showing some light rain extending northward into the central Willamette Valley. The ODA surface analysis showed almost flat pressure gradients across western Oregon, with computer models forecast northeasterly transport winds this morning to switch to light south-southwesterly this afternoon. Skies should remain mostly cloudy today, with the best chance of rain from Salem south. Valley highs will likely be a few degrees cooler than on Tuesday, with some light snow above about 3500 feet in the Cascades. Surface Winds: Var 3-10 this morning, S 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 10 this morning, SSW 6 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 20. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 66%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:44am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will dry things out on Thursday. The next weather system, on Friday, will also encounter the split-flow pattern in the jet stream offshore and move mainly into California. A weak ridge of high pressure will likely bring dry and mild conditions for at least the first half of the weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to come onshore Sunday afternoon, which appears as if it will be strong enough to spread some rain and higher elevation snow back across western Oregon. Some computer models are indicating a possible change in the weather pattern, beginning the middle of next week, that could bring some much needed snow to the mountains. Tomorrow (04 Mar): Partly Sunny. 35/55 Fri (05 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/55 Sat (06 Mar): Partly Sunny. 35/58 Sun (07 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain PM. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/53 Mon (08 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/53 Tue (09 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 36/55 Wed (10 Mar): Rain Likely...Snow Level Possibly Lowering to Near 3000 Feet. 38/52 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 3 12:06:58 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 03 Mar 2010 14:06:58 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A Pacific frontal system is moving into Oregon and California at midday. Satellite imagery shows multiple circulation centers associated with this system. One low-pressure center is just off the coast of Newport, but the main low-pressure center is off the northern California coastline. A band of clouds, arcing around the low-pressure centers, covers most of western and central Oregon. The jet stream continues to be aimed south of Oregon, with the main punch from this system being directed into northern and central California. Doppler radar was still showing some areas of very light precipitation over western and central Oregon, but most of the region was cloudy and dry. The ODA surface analysis showed light northerly gradients in the northern Willamette Valley and light southerly gradients across the south valley, with a weakening frontal boundary sitting over the central valley. Skies should remain mostly cloudy today, with sprinkles or very light rain possible at times. Valley highs will likely be a few degrees cooler than on Tuesday, with some light snow above about 4000 feet in the Cascades. Surface Winds: N 3-8 north valley...S 5-10 south valley this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 5 north valley, SSW 6 south valley this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 20. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 66%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:44am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will dry things out on Thursday. The next weather system, on Friday, will also encounter the split-flow pattern in the jet stream offshore and move mainly into California. A weak ridge of high pressure will likely bring dry and mild conditions for at least the first half of the weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to come onshore Sunday afternoon, which appears as if it will be strong enough to spread some rain and higher elevation snow back across western Oregon. Some computer models are indicating a possible change in the weather pattern, beginning the middle of next week, that could bring some much needed snow to the mountains. Tomorrow (04 Mar): Partly Sunny. 35/55 Fri (05 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/55 Sat (06 Mar): Partly Sunny. 35/58 Sun (07 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain PM. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 37/53 Mon (08 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/53 Tue (09 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 36/55 Wed (10 Mar): Rain Likely...Snow Level Possibly Lowering to Near 3000 Feet. 38/52 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 4 09:22:08 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 04 Mar 2010 11:22:08 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 4th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, March 4th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 12:00pm until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A split-flow jet stream pattern is continuing to weaken weather systems, as they approach the Oregon coast...sending the bulk of the rain and mountain snows south into California. A fairly potent weather system moved across California on Wednesday, with lots of clouds by not a lot of precipitation making it northward over Oregon. Rainfall totals over the Willamette Valley ranged from just a trace to nearly one-quarter of an inch. Meanwhile, near the California border, Medford picked up nearly one-half inch of rain. The storm pushed eastward, across Nevada, overnight, sending significant moisture just north of the Oregon border. Rome, in southeastern Oregon, picked up over one-inch of water-equivalent precipitation, with ODOT road cameras revealing snow-covered ground and near-freezing temperatures there this morning. Residual moisture, combined with partial clearing overnight, led to the formation of low clouds and areas of fog across the western valleys this morning. Visibilities were locally reduced to less than one-quarter of a mile across much of the northern Willamette Valley. Overnight temperatures fell to near the freezing mark in some sections of the Willamette Valley. Hillsboro was one of the colder spots, with a minimum of 33 degrees. Mid-morning satellite imagery showed considerable low clouds blanketing the interior valleys of western Oregon, with clearing skies from the coast range westward to the beaches. High clouds from the next weather system were advancing towards the coastline. Temperatures ranged from a foggy 37 degrees, in Hillsboro, to a partly sunny 46 degrees in Eugene. The ODA surface analysis showed high pressure building into western Oregon with flat pressure gradients and light winds. The air aloft is as cold this morning as we have seen in awhile. The freezing levels were measured over Medford and Salem at just 3400 and 4700 feet respectively, and ODOT road cameras showed a light dusting of new snow over the Cascade passes. A transitory ridge of high pressure will help skies to at least partially clear across the western valleys this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies giving way to increasing high clouds along the beaches. A light south wind will develop, ahead of the next weather system, helping afternoon temperatures climb into the mid 50s across the Willamette Valley. Surface Winds: SSE 0-5 this morning, S 3-6 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 5 this morning, SSW 6 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 21. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 55. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 61%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:04pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:43am. Extended Outlook: On Friday, a weather system dropping into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, will also encounter the split-flow pattern in the jet stream offshore and move mainly into California. Some light rain is possible...mainly along the coast and across southern Oregon. A weak ridge of high pressure will dry things out for the first half of the weekend with a little sunshine. A change to a stormy and cooler weather pattern is forecast for next week. A cold front should spread rain back onshore Sunday afternoon, and across western Oregon by Sunday evening. This system has colder air aloft associated with it, so snow levels will likely drop to below the Cascade passes. Showers will taper off Monday, with the lowest snow levels we\'ve seen in many weeks. After a brief break, early Tuesday, another cold weather system will bring more valley rain and much-needed mountain snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Yet another system is forecast to bring rain and blustery conditions onshore Thursday, followed by cooler and showery weather next Friday. Fri (05 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/57 Sat (06 Mar): Becoming Partly Sunny and Mild. 37/60 Sun (07 Mar): Rain Developing in the Afternoon. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 36/53 Mon (08 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 35/49 Tue (09 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. Snow level 4000 Feet. 31/51 Wed (10 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 38/51 Thu (11 Mar): Rain Developing and Turning Blustery. Snow Level Rising To 5000 Feet. 36/52 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 4 12:13:24 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 04 Mar 2010 14:13:24 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 4th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, March 4th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: The storm that cut across northern California and extreme southern Oregon, on Wednesday, was centered over extreme eastern Nevada late this morning. Satellite imagery showed the counter-clockwise circulation around it continuing to drive clouds into extreme southeastern Oregon, but the bulk of the moisture had pushed south and east of the state. Doppler radar also showed a few showers rotating from southwestern Idaho into the southeast corner of Oregon, where temperatures were still locally just above the freezing mark. The ODOT road camera south of Burns Junction, at about 4500 feet on US highway 95, showed a fresh coating of roadside snow late this morning. Back in our neck of the woods, visible satellite imagery showed the morning low clouds and fog, across the western valleys, beginning to break up, with mostly sunny skies along the northern and central coast. Midday temperatures ranged from the mid 40s, in cloudy sections of the north valley, to the low 50s in the south valley, where the low clouds were giving way to some sunshine. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure building into western Oregon, with flat pressure gradients across the Willamette Valley. Brisk northwesterly winds were locally gusting to near 30 mph across eastern Oregon...feeding into a surface low-pressure center over east-central nevada. Temperatures east of the Cascades ranged from the mid 30s, in the higher elevations of south-central and southeastern Oregon, to the mid 50s in the Columbia Basin of northeastern Oregon. The air aloft was fairly chilly this morning. The freezing levels were measured at just 3400 feet and 4700 feet over Medford and Salem respectively. ODOT road cameras showed a light dusting of new snow over the Cascade passes early this morning, with partial clearing warming pass temperatures mostly in the mid 30s at midday. A transitory ridge of high pressure will partially clear skies across the western valleys this afternoon, but cold air aloft will keep some convective cloud development going. Along the coast, mostly sunny skies will slowly yield to increasing high clouds. A light south wind was beginning to across western Oregon late this morning, ahead of the next weather system, still more than 300 miles offshore. Valley highs should climb into the mid to upper 50s. Surface Winds: S 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 6 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 21. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 56%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:04pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:43am. Extended Outlook: On Friday, a weather system dropping into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, will also encounter the split-flow pattern in the jet stream offshore and move mainly into California. Some light rain is possible...mainly along the coast and across southern Oregon. A weak ridge of high pressure will dry things out for the first half of the weekend with some sun. A change to a stormy and cooler weather pattern is forecast for next week. A cold front should spread rain back onshore Sunday afternoon, and across western Oregon by Sunday evening. This system has colder air aloft associated with it, so snow levels will likely drop to below the Cascade passes. Showers will taper off Monday, with the lowest snow levels we\'ve seen in many weeks. After a brief break, early Tuesday, another cold weather system will bring more valley rain and much-needed mountain snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Yet another system is forecast to bring rain and blustery conditions onshore Thursday, followed by cooler and showery weather next Friday. Fri (05 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/57 Sat (06 Mar): Becoming Partly Sunny and Mild. 37/60 Sun (07 Mar): Rain Developing in the Afternoon. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 36/53 Mon (08 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 35/49 Tue (09 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. Snow level 4000 Feet. 31/51 Wed (10 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 38/51 Thu (11 Mar): Rain Developing and Turning Blustery. Snow Level Rising To 5000 Feet. 36/52 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Mar 5 09:16:19 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 05 Mar 2010 11:16:19 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, March 5th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, March 5th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 11:00am until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A weather system dropping southeastward into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, spread considerable cloudiness over the western half or Oregon overnight. Increasing clouds held overnight temperatures mostly in the upper 30s and low 40s and inhibited valley fog formation. Meanwhile, just some high clouds advanced as far east as central Oregon. Mid-morning visible satellite imagery showed areas of valley low clouds and fog, east of the Cascades, where temperatures were allowed to drop into the 20s. The ODA surface analysis showed a weakening frontal boundary, stretching out just off the Washington and Oregon coast, as it encounters the split-flow pattern in the jet stream. With a weak low-pressure trough extending from the central Oregon coastal waters southward to over the northern California coastal waters, light offshore flow was developing across western Oregon. Doppler radar showed only a few areas of sprinkles moving northward up the Willamette Valley. McMinnville was the only location reporting some light rain this morning, with .02 inches. Infrared satellite imagery showed the main upper-level trough energy diving southeastward well off the northern California coastline. That was developing a low-pressure wave, along the frontal boundary, off the California coast. The front was stalling and weakening along the Oregon coastline. Rain will push inland, into California, later today, with only a chance of light rain or sprinkles across mainly the coastal and extreme southern sections of western Oregon. Mid-morning temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the mid 40s across western Oregon and from the upper 20s to near 40 east of the Cascades. Skies will remain mostly cloudy today across western Oregon, with mainly just high clouds and areas of valley fog across central and eastern Oregon. Southeasterly flow aloft will lift the freezing level from near 5000 feet this morning to over 6000 feet this afternoon. Warming aloft will combine with an increasing northeasterly low-level flow to inhibit rainfall across the Willamette Valley today. The air mass aloft will be warm enough this afternoon to support surface temperatures climbing into the 60s. However, Willamette Valley highs should top out in the mid to upper 50s, due to the cloud-cover. Surface Winds: NE 0-5 this morning, N 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: E 3 this morning, NNE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 38. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 47%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:05pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:41am. Extended Outlook: A split-flow jet stream pattern will direct the offshore upper-level low-pressure system southeastward, into central and southern California, by Saturday evening. Oregon will be in a \"calm zone\" between the polar jet stream, over northern Canada, and the active subtropical jet stream, over southern California and Mexico. Afternoon sunshine should warm valley highs into the low 60s Saturday. By late Sunday, the polar jet stream will sag far enough south to direct a cold front onshore and across western Oregon. There is a quite cool air mass behind this system, so snow levels will drop sharply on Monday. Showers will taper off Monday night, with the lowest snow levels we\'ve seen in many weeks. The coast range passes may see sticking snow and even some of the higher hills, around the valley, may half snow flakes mix in with heavier showers. After a brief break, early Tuesday, another cold weather system will bring more valley rain and much-needed mountain snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Yet another system is forecast to bring rain and possibly blustery conditions onshore by late Thursday, followed by another quite cold upper-level trough on Friday. Tomorrow (06 Mar): Becoming Partly Sunny and Mild. 37/61 Sun (07 Mar): Rain Developing in the Afternoon. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 36/53 Mon (08 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level Below 2500 Feet. 35/49 Tue (09 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. Snow level 3-4000 Feet. 31/51 Wed (10 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 38/51 Thu (11 Mar): Rain Late and Turning Blustery. Snow Level Rising To 5000 Feet. 36/55 Fri (12 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping Below 3000 Feet. 40/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Mar 5 12:09:41 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 05 Mar 2010 14:09:41 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, March 5th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, March 5th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: The ODA surface analysis showed a Pacific frontal boundary stretching out along the coastline late this morning. It was weakening under the El Nino driven split-flow jet stream pattern that has been sending the bulk of the storm activity south of Oregon all winter. The air mass is drying out across Oregon with many locations on both sides of the Cascades left with only middle and high clouds. There were still pockets of low clouds in the river basins...mainly over the southern half of the state. Light offshore flow was turning more northerly across western Oregon, with north winds incresing to 5-10 mph across the Willamette Valley. Late-morning temperatures ranged from near 40 degrees, at Medford and Klamath Falls, to the mid 50s along the coast. Most of the Willamette Valley had warmed into the low 50s, with some 50-degree readings also showing up in the Columbia Basin of northeastern Oregon. Infrared satellite imagery showed a developing low-pressure wave, along the frontal boundary, off the north-central California coast. That was stalling the eastward progression of the front and taking energy away from it north of the California border. Doppler radar was showing a band of rain along the northern California coast but no rain north of about the Oregon/California border. Rain is forecast to push inland, across northern and central California, later today. Some sprinkles could migrate as far north as extreme southern Oregon. Conditions should remain dry in the Willamette Valley. Considerable middle and high clouds will continue to filter the sunshine, over western Oregon, through the afternoon. Southeasterly flow aloft will lift the freezing level to above 6000 feet. The air mass aloft will be warm enough this afternoon to support surface temperatures climbing into 60s. However, Willamette Valley highs will have a tough time hitting the 60 degree mark, due to the sun-filtering middle and high clouds. Surface Winds: N 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 38. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 47%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:05pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:41am. Extended Outlook: The persistent split-flow jet stream pattern will direct the offshore upper-level low-pressure system southeastward, into central and southern California, on Saturday. Oregon will be in a \"calm zone\" between the polar jet stream, over northern Canada, and the active subtropical jet stream, over southern California and Mexico. Afternoon sunshine should warm valley highs into the low 60s Saturday. By late Sunday, the polar jet stream will sag far enough south to direct a cold front onshore and across western Oregon. A cold upper-level trough will drop snow levels sharply on Monday, as the preciitation turns to showers. Western Oregon will likely see the lowest snow levels since December, with significant snow possible over the Cascade passes. The coast range passes may also get sticking snow, with a chance of wet snow even mixing with rain, in heavier showers, in the higher hills around the Willamette Valley. After a brief break early Tuesday, another cold weather system will bring more valley rain and much-needed mountain snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another system is forecast to bring rain and possibly blustery conditions onshore by late Thursday, followed by another cold upper-level trough, with very low snow levels, on Friday. Tomorrow (06 Mar): Becoming Partly Sunny and Mild. 37/61 Sun (07 Mar): Rain Developing in the Afternoon. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 36/53 Mon (08 Mar): Showers and Cool. Chance T-Storms. Snow Level Below 2500 Feet. 35/49 Tue (09 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. Snow level 3-4000 Feet. 31/51 Wed (10 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 38/51 Thu (11 Mar): Rain Late and Turning Blustery. Snow Level Rising To 5000 Feet. 36/55 Fri (12 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping Below 2500 Feet. 40/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 8 09:10:42 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2010 11:10:42 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 8th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, March 8th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: After a sunny and mild Saturday, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid 60s in the Willamette Valley, an active cold front brought cloudy skies and cooler temperatures back to western Oregon Sunday. High temperatures were held in the mid 50s, with rain moving onshore during the afternoon. Rain spread across western Oregon Sunday evening, with the snow level dropping from 5-6000 feet, Sunday evening, to near 2000 feet by early this morning. CoCoRaHS reports indicated that between one-tenth and one-third of an inch of rain fell across the Willamette Valley overnight, with a couple of inches of snow falling on the Cascade passes. The cold front was bringing areas of light rain and snow to eastern Oregon this morning. Dry northwesterly onshore flow flow had cleared skies considerably across northwestern Oregon, but an upper-level disturbance off the southern Oregon coast was keeping skies cloudy across southwestern Oregon with areas of rain and mountain snow. Colder air aloft, in the wake of the cold front, had lowered the freezing levels over Salem and Medford to just 2800 feet and 3800 feet respectively by early this morning. ODOT road cameras, over the Cascade passes, showed snow-covered roads this morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. The surface cold front will continue eastward, into Idaho, this afternoon. The offshore cold upper-level trough is showing signs of splitting apart, with the bulk of the cold pool aloft headed towards northern California. That will keep post-frontal showers to a minimum across northwestern Oregon this afternoon, but afternoon heating will act to destabilize the atmosphere and likely produce at least some shower activity...mainly over the mountains. Even with the higher March sun-angle and some sunshine today, the coldest air aloft so far in 2010, will keep high temperatures near 50 degrees across the Willamette Valley today. The snow level could drop as low as about 1000 feet in the heavier showers. There is also a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. High mixing heights and northwesterly winds will make for excellent ventilation conditions across western Oregon today. Surface Winds: NW 5-15 this morning, NW 10-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 15 this morning, NNW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5500 feet. Ventilation index 83. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 49. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 44%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:09pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:35am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring clearing skies tonight. With a cold air mass over the region, sub-freezing temperatures are likely across the western valleys. Tender vegetation may need protection. Another cold weather system will quickly move onshore Tuesday, with more rain and mountain snow in the afternoon. Significant accumulations of snow are likely over the Cascade passes and possibly the coastal range passes. Valley highs will be held in the upper 40s Tuesday with increasing rain. Showers will continue into Wednesday morning, with western valley temperatures dropping into the mid 30s and snow levels lowering to around 1000 feet. Some clearing and warming aloft will help temperatures recover into the lower 50s Wednesday afternoon. Thursday appears to be a break from the wet weather, with the next system coming onshore Thursday night and Friday. Another cold upper-level trough, with very low snow levels, is forecast to follow the front onshore Friday night and Saturday. An upper-level ridge is forecast to bring some clearing Sunday, which could lead to another frosty morning. More warming is forecast for Monday. Tue (09 Mar): Frosty Start. Rain Developing in the Afternoon. Snow Level 1500 Feet. 30/48 Wed (10 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 34/52 Thu (11 Mar): Partly Sunny. Increasing Rain Late. Snow Level Rising To 5000 Feet. 36/55 Fri (12 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping Below 2500 Feet. 40/52 Sat (13 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 36/52 Sun (14 Mar): Cool Start...Becoming Partly Sunny. 32/55 Mon (15 Mar): Mostly Sunny. Increasing Clouds Late. 36/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 8 11:59:42 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2010 13:59:42 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 8th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Monday, March 8th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: The cold front that brought from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of rain to the Willamette Valley overnight was still producing areas of light rain and snow over the eastern third of the state, as of late this morning. A cool and mostly dry north- northwesterly flow was bringing some sunshine to northwestern and north-central Oregon. A cold upper-level trough, visible on infrared satellite imagery, was just moving onto the northern California coastline. The counter-clockwise circulation around it was sending considerable cloudiness, and some shower activity, into southwestern and south- central Oregon. However, the bulk of the instability showers were headed into California. The coldest air aloft so far this year moved over western Oregon this morning, with the freezing level dropping to around 3000 feet. ODOT road cameras showed mostly just a light coating of roadside snow, with a lot of wet pavement. However, late-morning pass temperatures were still only near freezing. Most of the cold air from the approaching upper-level trough is diving towards northern California. That will act to stall the surface cold front, over extreme eastern and southeastern Oregon this afternoon, as a low-pressure wave develops along the southern flank of the system. While areas of rain and snow will continue this afternoon near the Idaho and Nevada borders, skies should remain at least partly sunny over northwestern Oregon. The splitting off of upstream upper-level energy will minimize post-frontal showers across northwestern Oregon this afternoon, but afternoon heating should destabilize the atmosphere enough to produce at least a few showers...mainly over the mountains. Even with the higher March sun-angle and some sunshine today, cold air aloft will limit high temperatures to near 50 degrees across the Willamette Valley this afternoon. The snow level could drop as low as about 1000-1500 feet, in the heavier showers, over southwestern Oregon. There is a very slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Showers could also produce small hail. High mixing heights and northwesterly winds will make for excellent ventilation conditions across western Oregon this afternoon. Surface Winds: NNW 10-15 G22 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5500 feet. Ventilation index 110. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 37%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:09pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:35am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring clearing skies tonight. With a cold air mass over the region, sub-freezing temperatures are likely across the western valleys. Tender vegetation may need protection. Another cold weather system will quickly move onshore Tuesday, with more rain and mountain snow in the afternoon. Significant accumulations of snow are likely over the Cascade passes and possibly the coastal range passes. Valley highs will be held in the upper 40s Tuesday with increasing rain. Showers will continue into Wednesday morning, with western valley temperatures dropping into the mid 30s and snow levels lowering to around 1000 feet. Some clearing and warming aloft will help temperatures recover into the lower 50s Wednesday afternoon. Thursday appears to be a break from the wet weather, with the next system coming onshore Thursday night and Friday. Another cold upper-level trough, with very low snow levels, is forecast to follow the front onshore Friday night and Saturday. An upper-level ridge is forecast to bring some clearing Sunday, which could lead to another frosty morning. More warming is forecast for Monday. Tue (09 Mar): Frosty Start. Rain Developing in the Afternoon. Snow Level 1500 Feet. 30/48 Wed (10 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 34/52 Thu (11 Mar): Partly Sunny. Increasing Rain Late. Snow Level Rising To 5000 Feet. 36/55 Fri (12 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping Below 2500 Feet. 40/52 Sat (13 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 36/52 Sun (14 Mar): Cool Start...Becoming Partly Sunny. 32/55 Mon (15 Mar): Mostly Sunny. Increasing Clouds Late. 36/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 9 09:12:14 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 09 Mar 2010 11:12:14 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 9th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 9th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A transitory upper-level ridge of high pressure brought partial clearing overnight to western Oregon. However a very weak upper-level disturbance kept a few rain and snow showers going over northwestern Oregon, with snow mixing down to near sea level at times. Much of the Willamette Valley saw minimum temperatures drop to near or below the freezing mark. Eugene dropped to 28 degrees and Corvallis hit 30. McMinnville and Salem also dipped to freezing. Much of the extreme north valley stayed just above freezing, due to stirring of the air from the shower activity. Another cold weather system will quickly move onshore Today, with rain and mountain snow increasing in the afternoon. Significant accumulations of snow are likely over the Cascade passes and possibly the coastal range passes. Satellite imagery showed the main cloud-shield from the approaching weather system already moving over western Oregon. Doppler showed the early morning showers exiting the northern Willamette Valley, to the east, and incoming rain just offshore. The ODA surface analyis showed southerly gradients beginning to increase across western Oregon, with winds in the 5-15 mph range. Mid-morning temperatures were quite cool, with most of western Oregon still in the mid to upper 30s. Snow levels will start out near 1000 feet, when the precipitation moves onshore later this morning. Some snowflakes could mix with rain all the way to sea level across northwestern Oregon. Snow levels should climb to about 1500 feet this afternoon, when the bulk of the precipitation moves onshore. Increasing rain and cool offshore flow will hold valley highs in the mid to upper 40s this afternoon. Surface Winds: S 5-15 this morning, SE 10-20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 15 this morning, S 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 125. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 53%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:10pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:34am. Extended Outlook: Showers will continue into Wednesday morning, with western valley temperatures dropping into the mid 30s and snow levels lowering back down to around 1000 feet. Some afternoon clearing will help temperatures recover into the lower 50s. A warm front may bring rain back to northwestern Oregon as early as Thursday morning, with a cold front coming onshore Thursday afternoon. Snow levels should briefly rise to near or slightly above the Cascade passes, Thursday afternoon, before dropping again Thursday night and Friday. Another cold upper-level trough, with very low snow levels, is forecast to swing over the region Friday through early Saturday. A weak upper-level ridge may be just strong enough to deflect a warm front north of the region on Sunday, but a slight chance of rain can\'t be ruled out for northwestern Oregon. Oregon should be under the influence of a mild southwesterly flow aloft on Monday, with the next weather system forecast to bring more rain onshore late Tuesday. Wed (10 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Clearing Late. Snow Level Rising to 2500 Feet. 34/51 Thu (11 Mar): Increasing Rain and Wind. Snow Level Rising To 5000 Feet. 36/55 Fri (12 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping Below 2500 Feet. 40/51 Sat (13 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 1000 Feet Early...Rising to 2500 Feet. 35/52 Sun (14 Mar): Cool Start...Possibly Becoming Partly Sunny. Slight Chance of Rain. 32/55 Mon (15 Mar): Increasing Clouds and Mild. 37/62 Tue (16 Mar): Rain Likely Developing. Snow Level Above 5000 Feet..Dropping Late. 42/56 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 10 09:09:53 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Mar 2010 11:09:53 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A cold Pacific storm system spread rain and mountain snow across western Oregon late Tuesday. The cold front weakened as it pushed eastward, into the Cascades, early this morning. Willamette Valley temperatures dropped into the mid to upper 30s overnight with continued shower activity. Snow levels across western Oregon dropped to between 1000 feet and 1500 feet overnight, with the freezing levels over Salem and Medford measured at just 2300 feet and 2700 feet respectively early this morning. Rainfall amounts with this system were not that impressive, with the greatest amounts falling along the coast. Between one-quarter and three-quarters of an inch fell along the coast and generally from a tenth to one-quarter of an inch fell across the interior valleys of western Oregon. No more than about an inch of wet snow fell over some of the coastal mountain passes, but a few inches of new snow blanketed the Cascade passes this morning, where temperatures were only in the mid to upper 20s. Satellite imagery showed clearing skies across western Oregon at mid-morning, with Doppler radar showing most of the shower activity pushing east of the Willamette Valley. There were still a few showers movning onshore, but a weak and transitory upper-level ridge of high pressure is acting the stabilize the air mass slightly. After a blustery night, the mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed only weak southwesterly pressure gradients across western Oregon, and Willamette Valley winds had dropped to less than 15 mph. After recording minimums in the mid to upper 30s, a little sunshine had helped mid-morning readings recover into the low 40s. The threat of showers will continue to decrease during the day, as the weak upper-level ridge axis moves overhead. Some sunshine will help temperatures recover into the lower 50s. The break in the weather will be brief, however, with clouds expected to increase this evening, ahead of the next weather system slated to come onshore early Thursday. The increased cloud-cover should keep temperatures above freezing overnight across the Willamette Valley. Surface Winds: SW 5-10 this morning, S 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 10 this morning, SSW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 54%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:12pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:32am. Extended Outlook: A warm front may bring rain back to northwestern Oregon as early as the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, along with an increase in south-southeastery winds. A cold front is forecast to slowly sag southeastward, into northwestern Oregon, during the day Thursday, with increasing rain and rising snow levels. A stronger low-pressure area is forecast to form along the frontal zone, eventually bringing it inland, with more rain and possibly windy conditions on Friday. A cold upper-level trough, with very low snow levels, is forecast to swing over the region Friday afternoon through early Saturday. A weak upper-level ridge may be just strong enough to deflect a warm front north of the region on Sunday. Oregon should be under the influence of a mild southwesterly flow aloft on Monday, with the next weather system forecast to bring more rain onshore late Tuesday. Tomorrow (11 Mar): Increasing Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level Rising To 5000 Feet. 40/54 Fri (12 Mar): Rain and Windy...Turning Showery. Snow Level Dropping Below 2500 Feet. 45/52 Sat (13 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 1000 Feet Early...Rising to 2500 Feet. 35/52 Sun (14 Mar): Cool Start...Becoming Partly Sunny. 33/58 Mon (15 Mar): Increasing High Clouds and Mild. 37/63 Tue (16 Mar): Rain Likely Developing. Snow Level Above 5000 Feet..Dropping Late. 42/57 Wed (17 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 10 12:08:05 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Mar 2010 14:08:05 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A weakening cold front pushed east of the Willamette Valley early this morning, with showers tapering off during the morning. With some sunbreaks, valley temperatures had climbed into the mid to upper 40s by late this morning. Satellite imagery showed some convective cloud development continuing over western Oregon late this morning, but there were lots of breaks in the clouds ...especially along the coast. Doppler radar was still showing some scattered shower activity across the Willamette Valley, with some enhancement of the showers over the Cascades. Snow levels remain low, but the lack of shower activity was allowing the overnight snow to clear from the Cascade passes. A weak and transitory upper-level ridge of high pressure is slowly stabilizing the air mass over the region. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed the weak pressure gradients were turning more southerly across western Oregon, with valley winds only in the 5-15 mph range. The threat of showers will continue to decrease during the day, as the weak upper-level ridge axis moves overhead. Some showers could produce small hail. Sunbreaks will help temperatures recover into the lower 50s this afternoon. The break in the weather will be brief, however, with clouds expected to increase this evening, ahead of the next weather system slated to come onshore early Thursday. The increased cloud-cover should keep temperatures above freezing overnight across the Willamette Valley. Surface Winds: S 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 47%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:12pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:32am. Extended Outlook: A warm front may bring rain back to northwestern Oregon as early as the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, along with an increase in south-southeastery winds. A cold front is forecast to slowly sag southeastward, into northwestern Oregon, during the day Thursday, with increasing rain and rising snow levels. A stronger low-pressure area is forecast to form along the frontal zone, eventually bringing it inland, with more rain and possibly windy conditions on Friday. A cold upper-level trough, with very low snow levels, is forecast to swing over the region Friday afternoon through early Saturday. A weak upper-level ridge may be just strong enough to deflect a warm front north of the region on Sunday. Oregon should be under the influence of a mild southwesterly flow aloft on Monday, with the next weather system forecast to bring more rain onshore late Tuesday. Tomorrow (11 Mar): Increasing Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level Rising To 5000 Feet. 40/54 Fri (12 Mar): Rain and Windy...Turning Showery. Snow Level Dropping Below 2500 Feet. 45/52 Sat (13 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 1000 Feet Early...Rising to 2500 Feet. 35/52 Sun (14 Mar): Cool Start...Becoming Partly Sunny. 33/58 Mon (15 Mar): Increasing High Clouds and Mild. 37/63 Tue (16 Mar): Rain Likely Developing. Snow Level Above 5000 Feet..Dropping Late. 42/57 Wed (17 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 11 09:09:09 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Mar 2010 11:09:09 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 11th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, March 11th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: In case you haven\'t noticed, the weather has taken a turn for the worse. After two months of mostly benign weather, stormy conditions have returned to the Pacific Northwest. Satellite imagery showed clouds from an impressive frontal system covering all of Washington and Oregon this morning. Doppler radar showed precipitation stretching from the coast to the Cascades, with not much spill-over into central and eastern Oregon yet. The snow level has risen to about 4000 feet this morning, with ODOT road cameras showing the snow staring again over the Cascade passes. This storm is also bringing blustery conditions to western Oregon this morning. The ODA surface analysis showed southerly gradients continuing to increase, with the frontal system stalling just offshore. Southerly winds were gusting between 40 and 50 mph along the northern and central coast. Clapsop Spit recorded a gust to 51 mph, and Cape Mears had a gust of 49 mph. In the coatal range, Mt. Hebo had a gust to 63 mph. Strong south winds have also made their way into the Willamette Valley this morning. Salem has seen gusts to 37 mph. The frontal system is forecast to stall near the coastline today, so rainy and blustery conditions will persist throughout the day along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. Some light rain could also push into the interior of southwestern Oregon. Rainfall totals have been generally about one-tenth of an inch or less, so far this morning. However, significant rain is likely today from the coast range westward and in sections of the northern Willamette Valley. Cloudy skies and rain will hold valley highs near 50 degrees, even though the freezing level will be slightly above 5000 feet. Surface Winds: S 15-25 G35 this morning, S 12-22 G32 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 30 this morning, SSW 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 61%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:13pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:30am. Extended Outlook: A low-pressure area is forecast to form a wave along the frontal zone tonight, keeping it stalled near the coastline. Southerly winds could become quite strong along the coast tonight, where the National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Watch for possible gusts to around 60 mph. The cold front is forecast to finally move inland, across western Oregon, around midday Friday. That will increase the rain and wind across the Willamette Valley. A cold upper-level trough, with much lower snow levels, is forecast to swing over the region Friday afternoon through early Saturday. A weak upper-level ridge may be just strong enough to deflect a warm front north of the region on Sunday. Oregon should be under the influence of a mild southwesterly flow aloft on Monday, with the next weather system forecast to bring more rain onshore Tuesday afternoon. More stormy and cool weather is forecast for later next week. Fri (12 Mar): Rain and Windy...Turning Showery. Snow Level Dropping Below 2500 Feet. 45/52 Sat (13 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 1000 Feet Early...Rising to 2500 Feet. 36/54 Sun (14 Mar): Cool Start...Becoming Partly Sunny and Warmer. 33/59 Mon (15 Mar): Increasing High Clouds and Mild. 37/63 Tue (16 Mar): Rain Likely Developing. Snow Level Above 5000 Feet..Dropping Late. 42/57 Wed (17 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/55 Thu (18 Mar): Chance of Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 37/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 11 09:18:18 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Mar 2010 11:18:18 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 11th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, March 11th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: In case you haven\'t noticed, the weather has taken a turn for the worse. After two months of mostly benign weather, stormy conditions have returned to the Pacific Northwest. Satellite imagery showed clouds from an impressive frontal system covering all of Washington and Oregon this morning. Doppler radar showed precipitation stretching from the coast to the Cascades, with not much spill-over into central and eastern Oregon yet. The snow level has risen to about 4000 feet this morning, with ODOT road cameras showing the snow staring again over the Cascade passes. This storm is also bringing blustery conditions to western Oregon this morning. The ODA surface analysis showed southerly gradients continuing to increase, with the frontal system stalling just offshore. Southerly winds were gusting between 40 and 50 mph along the northern and central coast. Clapsop Spit recorded a gust to 51 mph, and Cape Mears had a gust of 49 mph. In the coatal range, Mt. Hebo had a gust to 63 mph. Strong south winds have also made their way into the Willamette Valley this morning. Salem has seen gusts to 37 mph. The frontal system is forecast to stall near the coastline today, so rainy and blustery conditions will persist throughout the day along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. Some light rain could also push into the interior of southwestern Oregon. Rainfall totals have been generally about one-tenth of an inch or less, so far this morning. However, significant rain is likely today from the coast range westward and in sections of the northern Willamette Valley. Cloudy skies and rain will hold valley highs near 50 degrees, even though the freezing level will be slightly above 5000 feet. Surface Winds: S 15-25 G35 this morning, S 12-22 G32 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 30 this morning, SSW 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 61%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:13pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:30am. Extended Outlook: A low-pressure area is forecast to form a wave along the frontal zone tonight, keeping it stalled near the coastline. Southerly winds could become quite strong along the coast tonight, where the National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Watch for possible gusts to around 60 mph. The cold front is forecast to finally move inland, across western Oregon, around midday Friday. That will increase the rain and wind across the Willamette Valley. A cold upper-level trough, with much lower snow levels, is forecast to swing over the region Friday afternoon through early Saturday. A weak upper-level ridge may be just strong enough to deflect a warm front north of the region on Sunday. Oregon should be under the influence of a mild southwesterly flow aloft on Monday, with the next weather system forecast to bring more rain onshore Tuesday afternoon. More stormy and cool weather is forecast for later next week. Fri (12 Mar): Rain and Windy...Turning Showery. Snow Level Dropping Below 2500 Feet. 45/52 Sat (13 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 1000 Feet Early...Rising to 2500 Feet. 36/54 Sun (14 Mar): Cool Start...Becoming Partly Sunny and Warmer. 33/59 Mon (15 Mar): Increasing High Clouds and Mild. 37/63 Tue (16 Mar): Rain Likely Developing. Snow Level Above 5000 Feet..Dropping Late. 42/57 Wed (17 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/55 Thu (18 Mar): Chance of Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 37/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Mar 12 09:15:31 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2010 11:15:31 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, March 12th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, March 12th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong cold front stalled just off the Oregon coast overnight, with an active warm front moving northward, down the Willamette Valley, early this morning. Rainfall totals along the coast have exceeded 1.5 inches, over the past 24 hours, with a daily record of 1.41 inches set yesterday at Astoria. About one-half of an inch of rain fell across the Willamette Valley Thursday, with another one-quarter to one-half of an inch falling this morning. South south winds pounded the coastline overnight, with gusts of 75 mph at Cape Mears and 72 mph at Cape Foul Weather. Garibaldi recorded a gust of 71 mph. Cannon Beach had gusts to 60 mph. In southerly winds gusted to 39 mph at Salem and to 38 mph at McMinnville. The warm front moved into the north valley earlier this morning, with temperatures climbing into the low 50s across much of the valley. Doppler radar showed the heavy rain, associated with the warm front, had pushed north and east of the valley at mid-morning. Valley temperatures and winds had also both backed off a bit. Mid-morning temperatures were in the mid to upper 40s. The snow level is near 5000 feet this morning, with ODOT road cameras showing rain over the Cascade Passes. A low-pressure area is forming another weak wave along the frontal zone, off the southern Oregon coast. That will slow the eastward progression of the cold front, which will eventually move onshore later this morning. The cold front will be accompanied by another burst of steady rain and blustery conditions across western Oregon. A cold upper-level trough will bring showers to western Oregon later this afternoon and evening, with snow levels dropping below the Cascade passes. Surface Winds: SSW 10-20 G30 this morning, SW 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 25 this morning, SW 22 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 88. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 67%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:14pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:28am. Extended Outlook: A cold upper-level trough, with much lower snow levels, is forecast to swing over the region tonight and Saturday. A weak upper-level ridge will move onshore Saturday evening and clear skies across western Oregon. That will lead to cool overnight temperatures Saturday night. However, a warm front may bring enough middle and high clouds into the region to hold minimums above the freezing mark. The upper-level ridge may be just strong enough to deflect precipitation from the warm front north of Oregon, but there is a slight chance of light rain across the northwest corner of the state Sunday. The warm front will push north, into western Washington, on Monday, with a mild southwesterly flow aloft returning spring-like conditions to western Oregon. The warm-up will be short-lived, with a cold front sweeping onshore, with more rain and cooler temperatures, Tuesday. A weak upper-level trough will keep a chance of showers over mainly the northern half of western Oregon on Wednesday, as the flow aloft turns more westerly. The long-range computer models have been all over the board with their projections, beginning the middle of next week, with the latest guidance building a ridge of high pressure over the west coast for a return to warmer weather. Some of the long-range guidance, however, drop a quick cold trough over the region, so the forecast beyond next Wednesday is still very much in question. I will broad-brush it for now and and lean temperatures towards climatological normals. Sat (13 Mar): Showers Decreasing Late. Snow Level 1500 Feet...Rising to 2500 Feet. 37/51 Sun (14 Mar): Mostly Cloudy North...Slight Chance Sprinkles. Partly Cloudy South. 33/58 Mon (15 Mar): Considerable High Clouds and Mild. 38/63 Tue (16 Mar): Rain Likely and Cooler. Snow Level Above 5000 Feet..Dropping Late. 42/57 Wed (17 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/55 Thu (18 Mar): Partly Cloudy. 37/57 Fri (19 Mar): Partly Cloudy. 37/58 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Mar 12 12:14:34 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2010 14:14:34 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, March 12th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, March 12th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong cold front stalled just off the Oregon coast overnight, with an active warm front moving northward, down the Willamette Valley, early this morning. Rainfall totals, from this storm, have exceeded 1.5 inches along the coast, with Astoria setting a daily record with 1.41 inches of rain on Thursday. About one-half of an inch of rain fell across the Willamette Valley Thursday evening, with another quarter of an inch falling this morning. Strong south winds pounded the coastline overnight, with gusts of 75 mph at Cape Mears and 72 mph at Cape Foul Weather. Garibaldi recorded a gust of 71 mph. Cannon Beach had gusts to 60 mph. In the north coastal range, Mt. Hebo recorded a gust of 82 mph at about 4:30 a.m. In the Willamette Valley, southerly winds gusted to 39 mph at Salem and to 38 mph at McMinnville early this morning. The warm front moved through the north valley earlier this morning, with temperatures climbing into the low 50s across much of the valley. Doppler radar showed the steady rainfall had shifted east of the north valley by mid-morning. However, a wave forming along the cold front, just off the southern Oregon coast, was delaying the eastward progress of the southern flank of the storm. Rain was continuing to fall late this morning from the southern Willamette Valley southward across most of southwestern Oregon. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed that southerly pressure-gradients had strengthened considerably across central and eastern Oregon, where wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph were common. Meanwhile, the southerly gradients were slowly relaxing west of the Cascades, but it was still a bit blustery in some locations. Salem was still getting gusts to about 25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph along the coastline. Late-morning temperatures ranged from the low 40s, with rain, in Eugene, to the low 50s, with some sunbreaks, in Astoria. The snow level was near 5000 feet earlier this morning, but ODOT road cameras showed the rain had changed to snow over the Cascade Passes by midday, with snow beginning to accumulate on road surfaces. There will be a break in the steady precipitation, from north to south, across western Oreogn this afternoon. The north valley has already seen the rainfall let up. A cold upper-level trough will bring showers to western Oregon later this afternoon and evening, with snow levels continuing to drop. Expect wintry driving conditions over the Cascade passes from now through early Saturday. Surface Winds: SW 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 22 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 88. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today was 53. The afternoon high will be near 49. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 67%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:14pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:28am. Extended Outlook: A cold upper-level trough, with much lower snow levels, is forecast to swing over the region tonight and Saturday. A weak upper-level ridge will move onshore Saturday evening and clear skies across western Oregon. That will lead to cool overnight temperatures Saturday night. However, a warm front may bring enough middle and high clouds into the region to hold minimums above the freezing mark. The upper-level ridge may be just strong enough to deflect precipitation from the warm front north of Oregon, but there is a chance of light rain across the northwest corner of the state Sunday. The warm front will push north, into western Washington, on Monday, with a mild southwesterly flow aloft returning spring-like conditions to western Oregon. The warm-up will be short-lived, with a cold front sweeping onshore, with more rain and cooler temperatures, Tuesday. A weak upper-level trough will keep a chance of showers over mainly the northern half of western Oregon on Wednesday, as the flow aloft turns more westerly. The long-range computer models have been all over the board with their projections, beginning the middle of next week, with the latest guidance building a ridge of high pressure over the west coast for a return to warmer weather. Some of the long-range guidance, however, drop a quick cold trough over the region, so the forecast beyond next Wednesday is still very much in question. I will broad-brush it for now and and lean temperatures towards climatological normals. Sat (13 Mar): Showers Decreasing Late. Snow Level 1500 Feet...Rising to 2500 Feet. 37/51 Sun (14 Mar): Mostly Cloudy North...Chance of Light Rain. Partly Cloudy South. 33/58 Mon (15 Mar): Considerable High Clouds and Mild. 38/63 Tue (16 Mar): Rain Likely and Cooler. Snow Level Above 5000 Feet..Dropping Late. 42/57 Wed (17 Mar): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/55 Thu (18 Mar): Partly Cloudy. 37/57 Fri (19 Mar): Partly Cloudy. 37/58 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 15 09:15:50 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 15 Mar 2010 11:15:50 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 15th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, March 15th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 10:00am until 4:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level ridge of high pressure brought drying and warming over the weekend. However, the transition to a drier air mass allowed Willamette Valley temperatures to locally drop to near freezing Saturday morning and below the freezing mark Sunday morning. Eugene recorded a minimum Saturday morning of 32 degrees and a low temperature Sunday morning of 30 degrees. Salem and McMinnville also dipped down to 30 degrees Sunday morning, and Hillsboro dropped to 29 degrees. The air mass aloft warmed significantly Sunday afternoon, with the freezing level rising to around 9000 feet. Willamette Valley high temperatures finally climbed to near-normal, for the first time in a week. A weak warm front brought some sprinkles to northwestern Oregon overnight and early this morning, with some very light rain making it into the northern Willamette Valley. Rainfall amounts were not measurable in the valley, but the north coast picked up a few hundredths of an inch. By mid-morning, Doppler radar showed that the shower activity had pretty much ended across northwestern Oregon, with possibly a few lingering sprinkles over the western slopes of the extreme northern Cascades and just off the north coast. Satellite imagery, at mid-morning, showed considerable middle and high clouds covering all of Washington and most of Oregon. Skies were sunny over the southeastern corner of the state. Temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the upper 40s across western Oregon and from the mid 20s to the mid 30s east of the Cascades. Winds were light statewide except for easterly gusts to near 30 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. The ODA surface analysis showed weak offshore gradients, in response to a developing storm system more than 500 miles off the northern California coast. As that system develops, it will force the warm front further north, into southwestern British Columbia. The air aloft will continue to warm over Oregon. The freezing levels should jump to above 10,000 feet this afternoon. Considerble middle and high clouds will remain over western Oregon today. Combined with poor mixing of the air mass, filtering of the sunshine will keep temperatures from climbing as high as they otherwise might this afternoon. High temperatures should still make it into the low 60s across the Willamette Valley, which will be about 5 degrees above normal for a change. Surface Winds: NE 0-5 this morning, N 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 5 this morning, NE 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 8. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 63. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 46%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:18pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:23am. Extended Outlook: Tonight should be a mild one, with clouds continuing to lower and thicken in advance of the next wather system. A cold front is forecast to slowly move onshore Tuesday morning, spreading light rain back across most of western Oregon. Snow levels will start out quite high but drop to near the Cascade passes by late Tuesday afternoon. Willamette Valley highs will fall back to near normal with the weakening cold front bringing around one-tenth of an inch of rain. A cool upper-level trough will maintain some showers over mainly the northern half of Oregon through about midday Wednesday. A cool and dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for Thursday, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure begins building just off the west coast. The ridge is forecast by all of the long-range computer models to move over Oregon on Friday through the weekend. Offshore surface winds, on Friday, should turn onshore over the weekend for a slow cooling trend. A cold front is forecast to bring back some rain Sunday night and Monday. Tomorrow (16 Mar): Light Rain Likely and Cooler. 48/58 Wed (17 Mar): Showers Ending...Becoming Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 39/57 Thu (18 Mar): Cool Start...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 34/60 Fri (19 Mar): Sunny and Warmer. Offshore Flow. 34/64 Sat (20 Mar): Sunny and Mild. Onshore Flow Returning. 36/62 Sun (21 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 39/59 Mon (22 Mar): Rain Likely and Cooler. 39/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 16 09:16:11 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Mar 2010 11:16:11 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:30pm. Weather Discussion: It was a mild afternoon on Monday across western Oregon, with offshore flow bringing the warmest readings to the northern coast. Astoria recorded a high Monday of 67 degrees and Tillamook hit 68. Highs in the Willamette Valley were mostly in the low to mid 60s. Aurora was the warm spot with 66 degrees. Eugene was the cool spot with a high of 59. Southwesterly flow aloft spread middle and high clouds over the region last night...making for mild overnight temperatures. Most of western Oregon stayed in the 40s this morning. McMinnville was the cool spot with a minumum of 38 degrees. Normally Willamette Valley minimums are in the mid to upper 30s for this time of year. Clouds were beginning to lower and thicken across western Oregon, by mid-morning, in advance of a weakening cold front just offshore. Satellite imagery showed a narrow band of clouds stretching from the southern British Columbia coastline to the northern California coast and then trailing offshore to the southwest. The ODA surface analysis showed increasing southeastery pressure gradients across western Oregon, ahead of the approaching cold front. Southerly winds were already gusting to 30 mph along the coast, at Newport, with light rain just starting to fall. Rain will spread across the entire coastline over the next couple of hours and into the Willamette Valley by early this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase in the Willamette Valley later this morning. Mixing of the air mass should help temperatures jump into the mid, and possibly upper 50s around midday, because the air aloft is still very warm. The freezing levels over western Oregon were measured at about 8-10 thousand feet early this morning. Cooling aloft and increasing light rain will likely chill valley temperatures into the lower 50s by late this afternoon. Rainfall totals should only be about one-tenth of an inch across the Willamette Valley, with most of the rain falling between midday and early this evening. Partial clearing is likely in the wake of the cold front overnight with just a chance of a shower...mainly north and over the mountains. The snow level will drop to between three and four thousand feet by Wednesday morning, with a couple of inches of fresh snow possible in the Cascades overnight. Surface Winds: SSE 5-15 G20 this morning, SW 10-20 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 15 this morning, SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 90. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:20pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:21am. Extended Outlook: The roller-coaster ride in temperatures is likely to continue during the extended forecast period, with very mild conditions over the weekend followed by a sharp cool-down early next week. A cool upper-level trough will maintain some showers over mainly the northern half of Oregon through about midday Wednesday. A dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for Thursday, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure begins building just off the west coast. That will lead to cool morning temperatures, but afternoon highs should recover to near or slightly above normal. The upper-level ridge is forecast to move over Oregon Friday and Saturday. Offshore surface winds will keep the air mass dry...leading to a large spread between morning minimums and afternoon maximums. Mornings may bring areas of frost to the Willamette Valley. Afternoon highs will be well above normal, with the warmest temperatures along the coast, on Friday, and over the inland valleys on Saturday. The ridge is forecast to slide over Idaho by Sunday afternoon with increasing southwesterly flow aloft over western Oregon. Highs on Sunday should be closer to normal, with a cold front is spreading rain onshore by Sunday night. Temperatures will likely drop back below normal Monday and Tuesday with snow levels lowering below the Cascade passes. Showers will taper off by Tuesday afternoon. Tomorrow (17 Mar): Chance of a Shower Early...Becoming Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 37/57 Thu (18 Mar): Cool Start, With Possible Areas of Frost...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 33/59 Fri (19 Mar): Possible Frosty Start...Sunny and Mild in the Afternoon. 31/62 Sat (20 Mar): Cool Morning...Sunny and Very Mild in the Afternoon. 33/65 Sun (21 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 35/60 Mon (22 Mar): Rain Likely and Much Cooler. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 39/52 Tue (23 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers...Mainly North. 37/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 16 12:10:28 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:10:28 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:30pm. Weather Discussion: Clouds were continuing to lower and thicken across western Oregon late this morning, in advance of a weakening cold front just moving onto the coastline. Satellite imagery showed a narrow band of clouds stretching from Vancouver Island, British Columbia to the northern California coast and then trailing offshore. The upper-level winds are blowing fairly parallel to the front (from the south-southwest), so the surface cold front is advancing eastward only very slowly. The ODA surface analysis showed the southeasterly pressure gradients turning more southerly across western Oregon. Winds had become south-southwesterly along the northern Oregon Coast and were gusting to around 30 mph. Light rain had moved onto the coastline and was advancing into the western Willamette Valley. Rainfall totals so far along the coast have been less than one-tenth of an inch, with the exception of Brookings, on the southern Oregon coast, where close to one-half of an inch has fallen. The air aloft is still quite warm, with the freezing level above 7000 feet. Southerly winds will increase in the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Mixing of the air mass should help temperatures jump into the mid, and possibly upper 50s, in the early afternoon. Light Rain will spread across the Willamette Valley by mid-afternoon, likely putting a cap on high temperatures. Rainfall totals from this cold front should only be about one-tenth of an inch across the Willamette Valley, with most of the rain falling by early this evening. Partial clearing is likely in the wake of the cold front overnight with just a chance of a shower...mainly north and over the mountains. The snow level will drop below 4000 feet by Wednesday morning, with a couple of inches of fresh snow possible in the Cascades overnight. Surface Winds: SW 10-20 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 90. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:20pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:21am. Extended Outlook: The roller-coaster ride in temperatures is likely to continue during the extended forecast period, with very mild conditions returning over the weekend...only to be followed by a sharp cool-down early next week. In the short-term, a cool upper-level trough will maintain a chance of showers over mainly the northern half of Oregon through about midday Wednesday, with some sunshine and increasing north-northwesterly surface winds in the afternoon. A dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for Thursday, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure begins building just off the west coast. That will lead to cool morning temperatures, but afternoon highs should recover to slightly above normal. The upper-level ridge is forecast to move over Oregon Friday and Saturday. Offshore surface winds will keep the air mass dry...leading to a large spread between morning minimums and afternoon maximums. Mornings may bring areas of frost to normally colder sections of the Willamette Valley. Afternoon highs will be well above normal, with the warmest temperatures along the coast, on Friday, and over the inland valleys on Saturday. The ridge is forecast to slide over Idaho by Sunday afternoon with increasing southwesterly flow aloft over western Oregon. Highs on Sunday should cool closer to normal, with a cold front spreading rain onshore by Sunday night. High temperatures will likely drop back below normal Monday and Tuesday with snow levels lowering below the Cascade passes. Showers will taper off by Tuesday afternoon with snow showers over the Cascade passes. Tomorrow (17 Mar): Chance of a Shower Early...Becoming Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 37/57 Thu (18 Mar): Cool Start, With Possible Areas of Frost...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 33/59 Fri (19 Mar): Possible Frosty Start...Sunny and Mild in the Afternoon. Offshore Flow. 31/62 Sat (20 Mar): Cool Morning...Sunny and Very Mild in the Afternoon. 33/65 Sun (21 Mar): Mostly Sunny Early...Increasing Clouds Late. 35/60 Mon (22 Mar): Rain Likely and Much Cooler. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 39/52 Tue (23 Mar): Showers...Decreasing Late. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 37/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 17 09:08:47 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Mar 2010 11:08:47 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 17th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 17th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 10:00am until 4:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A weak cold front moved across western Oregon late on Tuesday and was cutting across Montana and Idaho this morning. The storm produced lots of clouds, and blustery southerly winds, but not very impressive rainfall. Winds gusted to around 50 mph along the coast and to near 40 mph in the Willamette Valley, as the cooler air began pouring into the region. The freezing level over Salem dropped from more than 8000 feet Tuesday morning to just 4000 feet this morning. Rainfall totals were generally only a few hundredths of an inch across the Willamette Valley. The coast picked up from one-tenth to about two-thirds of an inch. A few showers are lingering across northwestern Oregon this morning, with light snow over the Cascade passes. Mid-morning temperatures were in the upper 30s and low 40s across western Oregon. The showers will give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon, as high pressure strongly builds into the region. Cool northerly surface winds will increase this afternoon, capping high temperatures in the upper 50s. Surface Winds: N 5-15 this morning, N 10-20 G 25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 15 this morning, N 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 80. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 49%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:21pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:19am. Extended Outlook: A dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for Thursday, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure begins building just off the west coast. Drier air filtering into the region will allow morning minimums to dip to near the freezing mark across the Willamette Valley. Even with a lot of afternoon sunshine, cooling northerly winds will not allow high temperatures to get much above normal (normal highs are in the upper 50s). The upper-level ridge is forecast to move over Oregon Friday and Saturday. A building surface thermal trough, along the coast, will turn low-level winds offshore on Friday...further drying the air mass and leading to a large spread between morning minimums and afternoon maximums. After a possible frosty start Friday morning, afternoon highs should climb into the low to mid 60s in the Willamette Valley. Coastal highs could locally hit 70 degrees. The upper-level ridge is forecast to slide over central Oregon Saturday, with onshore flow bringing cooler temperatures to the immediate coastline. The thermal trough will shift to over the Willamette Valley, where highs should climb into the mid 60s. The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward, to over Idaho, by Sunday afternoon with increasing southwesterly flow aloft over western Oregon. A weak cold front will bring cooler temperatures and a chance of light rain by Sunday afternoon. Some light rain will likely spread across most of western Oregon by Sunday evening. High temperatures will likely drop back below normal Monday and Tuesday with snow levels lowering below the Cascade passes. Rain will turn to showers on Monday with the showers ending on Tuesday. Another weak weather system may bring back a chance of rain by later Wednesday. Tomorrow (18 Mar): Cool Start, With Possible Areas of Frost...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 33/60 Fri (19 Mar): Possible Frosty Start...Sunny and Mild in the Afternoon. Offshore Flow. 31/62 Sat (20 Mar): Cool Morning...Sunny and Very Mild in the Afternoon. 33/65 Sun (21 Mar): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain by Afternoon. 37/60 Mon (22 Mar): Rain Likely and Much Cooler. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 39/52 Tue (23 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 37/54 Wed (24 Mar): Increasing Chance of Rain Late. Snow Level Rising to 4-5000 Feet. 36/56 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 18 09:10:44 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2010 11:10:44 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 18th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, March 18th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 12:00pm until 4:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Drier air filtering into the region cleared skies overnight and allowed for temperatures across the Willamette Valley to drop well down into the 30s, with patchy frost. Both Salem and Eugene dipped to the freezing mark, and Hillsboro dropped to at least 33 degrees. Mid-morning temperatures were still in the chilly low to mid 30s across virtually all of western Oregon. The exception was along the south coast, at Brookings, where temperatures were in the low 50s. Dry northerly flow sent temperatures plummeting into the teens and 20s across most of central and eastern Oregon this morning, with brisk north-northwesterly winds making some areas, like Baker City, feel even colder. Ontario was the warm spot east of the Cascades, with a temperature hovering near 40 degrees, but 20 mph winds were dropping windchill temperature below freezing (some warm spot). Satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies across all of Oregon this morning. There were a few patches of valley low clouds and fog in southwestern Oregon. As an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds just off the west coast today, a dry north-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail over Washington and Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed northerly gradients across all of Oregon, as pressures continued to build over Washington and north-central Oregon. A thermal trough was starting to push northward, just off the southern Oregon coast...turning the flow offshore along the central and southern coast. Even with a full day of sunshine, increasing cool northerly winds should keep highs from climbing much above 60 degrees this afternoon along the northern and central coast and across the Willamette Valley. However, downsloping north-northeasterly winds should lift temperatures on the south coast, around Brookings, into the low 70s. North-northeasterly transport winds are not favorable for stack burning, so it is not allowed today. Surface Winds: N 5-15 this morning, N 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 12 this morning, NNE 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 32%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:22pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:17am. Extended Outlook: There have been some significant timing changes to the extended forecast since yesterday. Friday now appears as if it will be the warmest day of this dry spell, with the upper-level ridge forecast to move over western Oregon. A building surface thermal trough, along the coast, will turn low-level winds offshore...further drying the air mass and leading to a large spread between morning minimums and afternoon maximums. After another cold morning, with local areas of frost, afternoon highs should climb into the low to mid 60s in the Willamette Valley. The northern and central coast could see high temperatures climb to near 70 degrees. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward on Saturday, to over eastern Oregon, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft initiating a marine push across western Oregon. Temperatures will cool significantly along the coast, with afternoon onshore flow capping high temperatures a few degrees cooler across the Willammette Valley. Clouds will also be on the increase Saturday afternoon, as a weak cold front comes onshore. The latest computer guidance is suggesting that the cold front could be strong enough to bring some areas of light rain to western Oregon by Saturday evening...especially along the coast. A weak upper-level trough will turn the flow aloft westerly over Oregon on Sunday, with strong onshore flow producing mostly cloudy skies and some shower activity across western Oregon. High temperatures will drop back below normal. Snow levels may drop to the Cascade passes by late Sunday, with minor snow accumulations possible. The upper-level trough will push east of the region late Monday with a weak ridge building over the west coast Tuesday. Another weak weather system may bring back a chance of rain by later Wednesday. Fri (19 Mar): Possible Frosty Start...Sunny and Mild in the Afternoon. Offshore Flow. 31/63 Sat (20 Mar): Increasing Clouds and Cooler. Slight Chance of Rain late. 34/59 Sun (21 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Scattered Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 42/55 Mon (22 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 39/52 Tue (23 Mar): Partly Sunny. 37/56 Wed (24 Mar): Chance of Light Rain Late. Snow Level Rising to 4-5000 Feet. 36/56 Thu (25 Mar): Becoming Partly Sunny. 38/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 18 13:44:35 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2010 15:44:35 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 18th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...ODA offices will be closed on Friday, March 19th, due to a mandatory statewide furlough day. The next update of this product will not be until Monday, March 22nd, 2010... Issued: Thursday, March 18th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Drier air filtering into the region cleared skies overnight and allowed for temperatures across the Willamette Valley to drop well down into the 30s, with patchy frost. Hillsboro dipped to 30 degrees and Eugene fell to 31 degrees. Salem dropped to the freezing mark. Freezing temperatures extended to the coast this morning, with Newpport dropping to 32 degrees. Dry northerly flow sent temperatures plummeting into the teens and 20s across most of central and eastern Oregon this morning. Redmond was the cold spot with a minimum of 15 degrees. Meacham dropped to 16 degrees. Satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies across all of Oregon at midday. As an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds just off the west coast today, a dry north- northwesterly flow aloft will prevail over Washington and Oregon. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed northerly gradients across all of Oregon, as pressures continued to build over Washington and north-central Oregon. A thermal trough was starting to push northward, just off the southern Oregon coast...turning the flow offshore along the central and southern coast. Late-morning temperatures were still in the chilly upper 40s and low 50s across western Oregon. The exception was along the south coast, at Brookings, where temperatures were in the low 60s. Even with a full day of sunshine, increasing cool northerly winds should keep highs in the 55-60 degree range this afternoon along the northern and central coast and across the Willamette Valley. However, downsloping north-northeasterly winds should lift temperatures on the south coast, around Brookings, into the low 70s. North- northeasterly transport winds are not favorable for stack burning. Surface Winds: N 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 32%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:22pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:17am. Extended Outlook: There have been some significant timing changes to the extended forecast since yesterday. Friday now appears as if it will be the warmest day of this dry spell, with the upper-level ridge forecast to move over western Oregon. A building surface thermal trough, along the coast, will turn low-level winds offshore...further drying the air mass and leading to a large spread between morning minimums and afternoon maximums. After another cold morning, with local areas of frost, afternoon highs should climb into the low to mid 60s in the Willamette Valley. The northern and central coast could see high temperatures climb to near 70 degrees. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward on Saturday, to over eastern Oregon, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft initiating a marine push across western Oregon. Temperatures will cool significantly along the coast, with afternoon onshore flow capping high temperatures a few degrees cooler across the Willammette Valley. Clouds will also be on the increase Saturday afternoon, as a weak cold front comes onshore. The latest computer guidance is suggesting that the cold front could be strong enough to bring some areas of light rain to western Oregon by Saturday evening...especially along the coast. A weak upper-level trough will turn the flow aloft westerly over Oregon on Sunday, with strong onshore flow producing mostly cloudy skies and some shower activity across western Oregon. High temperatures will drop back below normal. Snow levels may drop to the Cascade passes by late Sunday, with minor snow accumulations possible. The upper-level trough will push east of the region late Monday with a weak ridge building over the west coast Tuesday. Another weak weather system may bring back a chance of rain by later Wednesday. Fri (19 Mar): Possible Frosty Start...Sunny and Mild in the Afternoon. Offshore Flow. 31/63 Sat (20 Mar): Increasing Clouds and Cooler. Slight Chance of Rain late. 34/59 Sun (21 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Scattered Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 42/55 Mon (22 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 39/52 Tue (23 Mar): Partly Sunny. 37/56 Wed (24 Mar): Slight Chance of Light Rain Late. Snow Level Rising to 4-5000 Feet. 36/56 Thu (25 Mar): Becoming Partly Sunny. 38/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 22 09:16:07 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2010 11:16:07 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 22nd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, March 22nd, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 4:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:30pm. Weather Discussion: Winter ended on a sunny and mild note, with temperatures last Friday climbing to near 70 degrees both along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. On Saturday, the first day of spring, strong onshore flow cooled the immediate coastline back into the 50s and low 60s, with some rain moving onshore by Saturday evening. However, the western valleys enjoyed another mostly sunny and quite mild day, with highs topping out near the 70 degree mark. A cold front pushed the cooler and breezy conditions inland by Saturday evening, with some rain making it into the Willamette Valley Sunday morning. Mostly cloudy and showery conditions prevailed on Sunday across western Oregon. Temperatures cooled into the mid 50s along the coast and into the mid to upper 50s in the Willamete Valley (close to seasonal normals). The snow level dropped to 4-5000 feet by Sunday afternoon, with wintry conditions returning to the Cascade passes and ski areas. Mid-morning satellite imagery showed a weak upper-level disturbance dropping into northwestern Oregon. Doppler radar and surface reports showed scattered showers continuing to circulate onshore, as far south as Roseburg, across western Oregon. The snow level has dropped to about 2500 feet, with ODOT road cameras showing snow-packed road surfaces over the Cascade passes and a few inches of new snow. The ODA surface analysis showed high pressure beginning to build into western Oregon with a weak trough moving onto the extreme northern coast. That was producing light south to southwesterly winds across the Willamette Valley. Temperatures were mostly in the low to mid 40s along the coast and in the interior valleys of western Oregon. The weak upper-level disturbance is forecast to dive southeastward across Oregon during the day, taking some scattered showers with it along the way. As the system moves into southeastern Oregon this afternoon, showers will taper off across western Oregon. Surface winds will veer from southwesterly to northwesterly by late this afternoon, as drier air begins pouring into western Oregon. The snow level will only rise to about 3000 feet this afternoon, so a couple of additional inches of snow are possible over the Cascade passes, before the snow showers end later today. Cool air aloft and daytime heating will combine to produce high mixing heights over western Oregon this afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will begin to subdue convective overturning of the atmosphere later this afternoon, in spite of the destabilizing effects of daytime heating. Valley highs should climb to near normal this afternoon with some sunbreaks. Surface Winds: S 3-8 this morning, becoming NW 5-10 by late this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 6 this morning, becoming W 6 by late this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 53%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:27pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:09am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over Oregon and Washington on Tuesday, with a building surface thermal trough along the southern Oregon coast helping to turn the low-level winds offshore. That will further warm and dry the air mass across western Oregon, with skies becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon. After a chilly morning, with mimimums locally near freezing, afternoon highs should rebound into the low 60s. The upper-level ridge will weakend and shift eastward, to over Idaho, on Wednesday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will turn the surface winds onshore along the coast, leading to cooler temperatures there. However, highs in the Willamette Valley should climb into the 60s again, before a push of cooler marine air penetrates east of the coast range Wednesday afternoon. A cold front is forecast to spread rain onshore Wednesday night and into the Willamette Valley Thursday morning. Another upper-level ridge is forecast to bring drier conditions late Friday and Saturday. The next weather system, on Sunday, does not look as strong...bringing just a chance of light rain and mountain snow. A stronger system is forecast to come onshore by late Monday. Tomorrow (23 Mar): Chilly Start...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Mild in the Afternoon. 34/62 Wed (24 Mar): Mostly Sunny. Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. 35/65 Thu (25 Mar): Rain Likely and Much Cooler. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 44/56 Fri (26 Mar): Showers Ending with Partial Clearing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/56 Sat (27 Mar): Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 36/63 Sun (28 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 41/58 Mon (29 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Rain Late. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 41/59 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 23 08:59:52 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2010 10:59:52 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 11:00am until 5:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Light winds and clearing skies, combined with cool air aloft, allowed temperatures to drop well into the 30s across western Oregon early this morning. Some spots dropped to near the freezing mark with patchy frost in the Willamette Valley. Hillsboro dipped to 33 degrees on their hourly observations and may have been even colder. Salem dropped to at least 34 degrees and Eugene to at least 35 degrees, before fog formed and stabilized the temperature there. Even the normally warmer Portland Airport temperature fell into the upper 30s. Those temperatures seem warm, compared with the 17 degree minimum recorded so far this morning at Burns, and 19 degrees at Baker City, in eastern Oregon. The final morning minimums will be available by the noon update. An upper-level ridge of high pressure is building over Oregon and Washington this morning. After dropping below 5000 feet Monday, the freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at 7700 feet and 9900 feet respectively early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery showed only a few high clouds making it through the ridge and steraming over Washington and Oregon in a dry northwesterly flow aloft. Visible satellite imagery showed patchy fog in the northern Willamette Valley and more wisespread fog and low clouds from the Lane County south into Douglas County. The ODA surface analysis showed high pressure over Washington and most of Oregon with weak pressure gradients across both states. A surface thermal trough was beginning to push northward along the southern Oregon coast, increasing the north-northeasterly gradients across the extreme southwestern corner of the state. At mid-morning, winds were generally less than 10 mph statewide. Temperatures ranged from the mid 30s to the low 40s across western Oregon, with 20s to mid 30s east of the Cascades. As the upper-level ridge continues to build over western Oregon today, the surface thermal trough will push further north into southwestern Oregon. Increasing north-northeasterly pressure gradients will help dry the low-level air mass over western Oregon, with areas of morning fog and low clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs should rebound into the low 60s across most of the Willamette Valley. The extreme south valley may not make it out of the 50s, due to the more widespread morning clouds and a cool northerly breeze. Warming aloft will yield lower mixing heights today, with only fair ventilation conditions forecast this afternoon. North-northeasterly transport winds are not conducive to good ventilation for stack burning, so it is not allowed today. Surface Winds: NNE 3-10 this morning, N 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 10 this morning, NNE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 62. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:29pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:08am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge will weaken and shift eastward, to over Idaho, by Wednesday afternoon. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will initiate a push of cooling marine air into the Willamette Valley in the afternoon but likely after temperatures climb into the low to mid 60s. Increasing southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights will likely provide excellent ventilation for stack burning. A cold front is forecast to spread rain across western Oregon late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, followed by an upper-level trough Thursday afternoon through perhaps much of Friday. Another upper-level ridge is forecast to bring drying conditions late Friday and Saturday. The next weather system, on Sunday, does not look very strong...bringing a chance of light rain and high elevation snow...mainly north. A stronger system is forecast to come onshore Monday, with more significant rain and possibly windy conditions...especially along the coast. That will be followed by a cold upper-level trough Tuesday and Wednesday, with showers and mountain snow. Tomorrow (24 Mar): Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. Rain Late. 35/64 Thu (25 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Cooler. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 44/56 Fri (26 Mar): Showers Decreasing Late with Partial Clearing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/56 Sat (27 Mar): Chilly Start...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 35/63 Sun (28 Mar): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 44/58 Mon (29 Mar): Increasing Rain and Wind. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 43/59 Tue (30 Mar): Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 40/56 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 23 12:14:03 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2010 14:14:03 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Light winds, clearing skies, and cool air aloft, allowed temperatures to drop well into the 30s across western Oregon this morning. Some spots dropped to near the freezing mark with patchy frost in the Willamette Valley. Hillsboro recorded a minimum of 32 degrees, McMinnville and Salem dropped to 33, Eugene dipped to 34, and Corvallis cooled to 36. Even the normally warmer Portland Airport temperature fell into the upper 30s. Those temperatures were warm, compared with the 16 degree minimum recorded at Burns, and the morning low of 18 degrees at Baker City. Meacham, Redmond, and Klamath Falls dropped into the teens this morning, all recording minimums of 19 degrees. Late-morning infrared satellite imagery showed only a few high clouds drifting over Washington and Oregon, in a dry northwesterly flow aloft. However, visible satellite imagery showed areas of western valley low clouds stretching from the Columbia River to Roseburg. The low clouds were more prevalent in Douglas County, with Roseburg reporting a solid overcast cloud-deck at about 2000 feet above the ground. Low clouds were beginning to give way to sunshine across the Willamette Valley, with sunny skies along the entire stretch of the Oregon coast. The ODA surface analysis showed high pressure centered over eastern Washington, with a thermal trough pushing northward along the southern Oregon coast. Offshore flow was beginning to develop from southwestern Oregon to the central and southern coast. Dry northeasterly winds, gusting over 15 mph, were clearing the skies over Newport, where temperatures had jumped into the low 50s. Late-morning temperatures in the Willamette Valley ranged from the low 40s, in the Eugene area, to near 50 in the north valley. North-northeasterly winds were just beginning to increase in the Willamette Valley but were still mostly under 10 mph. As an upper-level ridge continues to build over western Oregon today, the surface thermal trough will push further north into southwestern Oregon. Increasing north-northeasterly pressure gradients will help dry the low-level air mass over western Oregon, with areas of morning fog and low clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies. After the chilly start this morning, afternoon highs should rebound into the low 60s across most of the Willamette Valley. The south valley will likely stay in the 50s, due to a slower start to the sunshine and a cool northerly afternoon breeze. Warming aloft will lift afternoon freezing levels to around 10,000 feet...with mixing heights significantly lower than on Monday. Even though general ventilation conditions will be fair this afternoon, north-northeasterly transport winds are not conducive to good ventilation for stack burning, so it is not allowed today. Surface Winds: North wind increasing to 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 62. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:29pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:08am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge will weaken and shift eastward, to over Idaho, by Wednesday afternoon. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will initiate a push of cooling marine air into the Willamette Valley in the afternoon but likely after temperatures climb into the low to mid 60s. Increasing southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights will likely provide excellent ventilation for stack burning. A cold front is forecast to spread rain across western Oregon late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, followed by an upper-level trough Thursday afternoon through perhaps much of Friday. Another upper-level ridge is forecast to bring drying conditions late Friday and Saturday. The next weather system, on Sunday, does not look very strong...bringing a chance of light rain and high elevation snow...mainly north. A stronger system is forecast to come onshore Monday, with more significant rain and possibly windy conditions...especially along the coast. That will be followed by a cold upper-level trough Tuesday and Wednesday, with showers and mountain snow. Tomorrow (24 Mar): Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. Rain Late. 35/64 Thu (25 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Cooler. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 44/56 Fri (26 Mar): Showers Decreasing Late with Partial Clearing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/56 Sat (27 Mar): Chilly Start...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 35/63 Sun (28 Mar): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 44/58 Mon (29 Mar): Increasing Rain and Wind. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 43/59 Tue (30 Mar): Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 40/56 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 24 09:09:52 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Mar 2010 11:09:52 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 24th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 24th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 12:00pm until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: The upper-level ridge that brought dry and warmer conditions Tuesday afternoon is shifting east of the region this morning. Infrared satellite imagery showed a broad band of mostly high clouds sweeping across Washington and Oregon, in response to a very weak upper-level disturbance, embedded in an increasing south-southwesterly flow aloft. The ODA surface analysis showed southeasterly pressure gradients across Oregon. Winds were mostly light across the state, except for easterly gusts to near 30 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. The veil of high clouds helped to keep overnight temperatures from getting as cold as they did Tuesday morning. Temperatures in the Willamette Valley stayed well above freezing this morning. Although most areas east of the Cascades still dropped below freezing, mid-morning temperatures were running several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The upper-level ridge will weaken and continue to drift eastward, to over Idaho, by this afternoon. A stronger weather system will approach the coastline late in the day, with increasing south-southwesterly flow aloft. The Salem sounding this morning showed a weak temperature inversion from the surface to about 2500 feet, where the temperature climbed to about 50 degrees. That will keep mixing heights low this morning. The back edge of the veil of high clouds was moving over the coastline this morning and should push east of the Cascades this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will warm afternoon temperatures into the mid 60s across the Willamette Valley. Daytime heating should combine with cooling aloft to significanly raise mixing heights in the mid to late afternoon, with increasingly southwesterly transport winds improving ventilation conditions for stack burning. Cooler marine air will begin puring into the valley this evening, as clouds thicken in response to the next weather system moving onto the southern Oregon/northern California coast. Surface Winds: S 0-6 this morning, SE 5-10 early this afternoon...becoming WSW 5-12 late this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 4 this morning, SW 5 early this afternoon...becoming SW 8 late this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 25. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 64. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 43%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:30pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:06am. Extended Outlook: A cold front is forecast to spread rain across western Oregon tonight and Thursday morning, but the main energy from this system will get directed at extreme southern Oregon and northern California. A cool upper-level trough will maintain showers over all of Oregon Thursday and much of Friday, with the snow level dropping to below the Cascade passes. An upper-level ridge is forecast to bring drying conditions late Friday. After a chilly start, mostly sunny skies will make for a very pleasant Saturday afternoon. The next weather system, on Sunday, appears strong enough to bring some light rain and higher elevation snow back to western Oregon. A much stronger system is forecast to come onshore Monday, with more significant rain and possibly windy conditions...especially along the coast. Snow levels will initially be fairly high, on Monday, but drop significantly Monday night, as a cold upper-level trough swings inland behind the cold front. Tuesday and Wednesday look showery and cool, with possible significant mountain snowfall. That would be helpful for the water supply outlook, since snowpacks are well below normal statewide. Thu (25 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Cooler. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 44/55 Fri (26 Mar): Showers Decreasing Late with Partial Clearing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/56 Sat (27 Mar): Chilly Start...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 35/63 Sun (28 Mar): Light Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 44/58 Mon (29 Mar): Increasing Rain and Wind. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 46/59 Tue (30 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 43/56 Wed (31 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 38/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 25 09:11:42 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2010 11:11:42 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 25th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, March 25th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: Southwesterly flow aloft and mostly sunny skies made for balmy temperatures Wednesday afternoon across western Oregon. High temperatures in the Willamette Valley climbed into the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile, onshore flow kept the coastal areas in the mid 50s to low 60s. A strong surge of cooler marine air came rushing into the Willamette Valley Wednesday evening, just ahead of an active cold front that moved across western Oregon overnight. Fair skies quickly turned wet, from south to north, across western Oregon Wednesday night. Rainfall totals locally approached an inch in coastal sections of Lane County but were mostly between one-third and one-half inch along both the coast and the interior valleys of western Oregon. Cloudy, rainy, and breezy conditions quickly cooled Willamette Valley temperatures into the upper 40s late Wednesday, but minimums did not drop any lower than the mid 40s. By mid-morning, the strong cold front had already advanced eastward, to near the Idaho border, taking with it areas of light rain and snow along with blustery southwesterly winds. In it\'s wake, the precipitation had turned more showery over western Oregon. Local Doppler radar showed the steady rains had pushed north into Washington, with scattered showers rotating onshore in a strong southwesterly flow aloft. The early morning Salem sounding showed significant cooling aloft, since Wednesday afternoon. The freezing level had dropped from over 8000 feet to just 4500 feet. ODOT road cameras showed mostly wet pavement over the Cascade passes, at mid-morning, but temperatures were just below freezing with snow showers. The cooler air aloft and brisk southwesterly transport winds will make for good ventilation conditions today. Infrared satellite imagery showed a circulation center about 100 miles off the northern Oregon coast. A counter-clockwise circulation around it was rotating a secondary surge of moisture onshore into southwestern Oregon. Most of the Willamette Valley was in a relatively calm zone, just north of the the next surge of showers coming onshore. The ODA surface analysis showed fairly strong southerly pressure-gradients, across western Oregon, in the wake of the strong cold front moving into Idaho. Southerly winds were gusting to as high as 25 mph from Newport to Salem. Under mostly cloudy skies, valley temperatures were in the mid to upper 40s. A cool upper-level trough will continue the showers across all of Oregon today and tonight, with snow levels dropping to as low as 3000 feet. Several inches of snow are likely over the Cascade passes. Another one-quarter to one-half inch of rain is possible along sections of the coast and across the western valleys, along with blustery south-southwesterly winds. High temperatures will be about 15 degrees cooler, than on Wednesday, in the Willamette Valley and slightly below normal. Surface Winds: S 7-15 G25 this morning, SW 10-20 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 20 this morning, SW 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 66%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:04am. Extended Outlook: A cold northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to drive another upper-level disturbance through the region Friday morning, maintaining shower activity across most of the state. An upper-level ridge is forecast to begin clearing skies, from west to east, across Oregon late Friday. That should lead to some pretty chilly temperatures Saturday morning, with valley minimums dropping into the mid 30s. Patchy frost is possible. After the chilly start, mostly sunny skies will make for a very pleasant Saturday afternoon, with temperatures rebounding to well above normal. The next weather system should spread rain back across western Oregon by midday Sunday. This will be a warmer storm, with snow levels likely above the Cascade passes. A quite strong system is forecast to come onshore Monday, with significant rain and possibly windy conditions...especially on the coast. Snow levels will initially be fairly high but should drop substantially Monday night, in the wake of the cold front. Tuesday looks showery and cool, with some much-needed mountain snowfall. The next system is forecast to take aim mainly at California, on Wednesday. However, it should spread some rain and mountain snow northward over Oregon...with the greatest amounts in the south. Temperatures will stay below normal. Fri (26 Mar): Showers Decreasing Late with Partial Clearing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/56 Sat (27 Mar): Chilly Start...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 35/63 Sun (28 Mar): Rain Developing. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 44/58 Mon (29 Mar): Increasing Rain and Wind. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 46/59 Tue (30 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 43/56 Wed (31 Mar): Rain and Mountain Snow...Mainly South. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/55 Thu (01 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 25 12:08:53 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2010 14:08:53 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 25th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...No Updates Before Monday, March 29th, 2010... Issued: Thursday, March 25th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: By late this morning, the strong cold front that brought rain to all of western Oregon overnight had already advanced northeastward...arcing from northern and eastern Washington, through central and southeastern Idaho, into Utah. In it\'s wake, a cold upper-level trough was moving onshore and circulating showers into western Oregon. The early morning Salem sounding showed significant cooling aloft, with the freezing level down to just 4500 feet. Late-morning ODOT road cameras still showed mostly wet pavement over the Cascade passes, with pass temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Infrared satellite imagery showed a circulation center less than 100 miles off the northern Oregon coast. A counter-clockwise circulation around it was rotating a surge of showers onshore into western Oregon. The Willamette Valley was in a relatively calm zone, for much of the morning, but that is about to change. Doppler radar showed a large batch of showers, stretching from Astoria to Florence, rotating northeastward towards the Willamette Valley. The late-morning ODA surface analysis southerly pressure-gradients tightening along the central Oregon coast, in association with the upper-level disturbance bringing to showers onshore. South-southwesterly winds were gusting to 35 mph along the coast, with southerly winds gusting to 30 mph in the Willamette Valley. Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures had only climbed into the upper 40s and low 50s. A couple a upper-level disturbances will increase the shower activity across western Oregon this afternoon through Friday morning. With snow levels dropping to as low as 3000 feet, and showers expected to increase, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Cascades valid from 2 p.m. today until 9 a.m. Friday. Up to a foot of new snow is possible. Another one-quarter to one-half inch of rain is possible along sections of the coast and across the western valleys, by Friay, along with blustery south-southwesterly winds. High temperatures will top out today in the low to mid 50s. Surface Winds: SW 12-25 G35 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 90. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 66%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:04am. Extended Outlook: A cold northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to drive another upper-level disturbance through the region Friday morning, maintaining shower activity across most of the state. An upper-level ridge is forecast to begin clearing skies, from west to east, across Oregon late Friday. That should lead to some pretty chilly temperatures Saturday morning, with valley minimums dropping into the mid 30s. Patchy frost is possible. After the chilly start, mostly sunny skies will make for a very pleasant Saturday afternoon, with temperatures rebounding to well above normal. The next weather system should spread rain back across western Oregon by midday Sunday. This will be a warmer storm, with snow levels likely above the Cascade passes. A quite strong system is forecast to come onshore Monday, with significant rain and possibly windy conditions...especially on the coast. Snow levels will initially be fairly high but should drop substantially Monday night, in the wake of the cold front. Tuesday looks showery and cool, with some much-needed mountain snowfall. The next system is forecast to take aim mainly at California, on Wednesday. However, it should spread some rain and mountain snow northward over Oregon...with the greatest amounts in the south. Temperatures will stay below normal. Fri (26 Mar): Showers Decreasing Late with Partial Clearing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/56 Sat (27 Mar): Chilly Start...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 35/63 Sun (28 Mar): Rain Developing. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 44/58 Mon (29 Mar): Increasing Rain and Wind. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 46/59 Tue (30 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 43/56 Wed (31 Mar): Rain and Mountain Snow...Mainly South. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/55 Thu (01 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 29 09:17:54 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 29 Mar 2010 11:17:54 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 29th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, March 29th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: The moderate to strong El Nino, in the eqatorial Pacific Ocean, is weakening but expected to last at least through this spring. Typical of El Nino, our early spring weather looks more wintry than spring-like. 6-10 inches of snow fell over the Cascades passses late last week, with about one-half inch of rain in the Willamette Valley. After a brief break, with some sunshine on Saturday, rain spread back across western Oregon on Sunday. It seems more like November or December overnight, with southerly winds, gusting to over 80 mph along the coast and to nearly 50 mph in the Willamette Valley, accompanied by heavy rain. The National Weather Service wind tower, at Garibaldi, recorded a wind gust early this morning of 85 mph. 77 mph winds were clocked at the Yaquina Bay Bridge, in Newport. Mt. Hebo, in the northern coastal range, recorded a peak gust of 96 mph. In the Willamette Valley, southerly winds gusted to 46 mph in Salem and to 38 mph in Portland. Rainfall totals of more that one-half inch were common along the coast and across the Willamette Valley, during the past 24 hours. Troutdale, Hood River, Newport, and Brookings all picked up around an inch of rain. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed southerly pressure gradients beginning to relax across western Oregon, while strengthening slightly east of the Cascades. South-southwesterly winds were still gusting to around 30 mph across western Oregon, with local gusts to about 35 mph in the Willamette Valley and to over 40 mph along the coast. Southerly winds had increased across central and eastern Oregon, with 25-40 mph gusts. The strongest winds, east of the Cascades, were from Klamath Falls to Rome. The strong cold front, responsible for the stormy weather, was just moving onto the Oregon coast at mid-morning. Satellite imagery showed solid cloud-cover across the entire state, with a back edge to the overcast skies nearing the coast. Doppler radar and surface reports showed locally heavy rain falling across all of western Oregon, with only a few areas of light rain making it east of the Cascades. The freezing level jumped to 6-7000 feet, ahead of the cold front, Sunday afternoon and was holding there this morning. ODOT road cameras showed wet pavement over Cascade passes, where temperatures were several degrees above freezing. The cold front is forecast to slowly progress eastward, across western Oregon, this morning and push east of the Cascades this afternoon. In its wake, the steady rain will turn showery, with colder air aloft rapidly dropping the snow levels in the Cascades. Satellite imagery shows impressive cumulus cloud development approaching the coastline, so scattered thunderstorms are likely to move onshore later this afternoon. With lowering snow levels today, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning, for elevations above 4000 feet, where more than foot of new possible is possible later this afternoon and tonight. That is much-needed snowfall but could cause serious travel delays over the Cascade passes. Thunderstorms will likely produce bursts of small hail along the coast and across the western valleys later this afternoon and this evening. Stormy conditions held overnight temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 40s across western Oregon. Mid-morning readings ranged from the upper 40s to the low 50s. Highs this afternoon should only warm into the 50-55 degrees range. Pressure gradients are forecast to turn more southwesterly, in the wake of the cold front, this afternoon. Continued blustery southwesterly winds and cooling air aloft will provide excellent ventilation conditions today for agricultural and stack burning. Surface Winds: SW 15-25 G35 this morning, SW 10-20 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 35 this morning, SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 105. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 61%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:36pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:56am. Extended Outlook: A cold and unstable air mass will move over Oregon Tuesday and Wednesday, with frequent showers and likely some afternoon thunderstorms. Coastal and valley locations will likely see more bursts of small hail. Snow levels will remain well below the Cascade passes and could drop as low as the coastal range passes by Tuesday night. The main jet stream energy will sag southward, to over California, by Wednesday. However, plenty of cold air aloft will combine with daytime heating to trigger plenty of showers across Oregon, with the mountains continuing to pick up much-needed snowfall. A transitory ridge of high pressure is forecast to move onshore Thursday and warm the air aloft enough to stabilize the atmosphere and decrease the showers across the state. Clearing skies could allow temperatures to approach the freezing mark across the Willamette Valley Thursday morning. Partly sunny skies and warmer air aloft will help daytime highs climb closer to normal Thursday afternoon, with only a slight chance of a shower. Another cool Pacific storm is forecast to bring more valley rain and mountain snow on Friday, with snow levels staying below the Cascade passes. Showers will follow the cold front on Saturday, with more snow expected in the mountains. The next system may take aim more at California, on Easter Sunday, but that is getting too far out to call. Tue (30 Mar): Showers and T-storms with Small Hail. Snow Level Dropping to 2500 Feet. 40/51 Wed (31 Mar): Showers and T-storms with Small Hail. Snow Level Dropping to 1500 Feet. 36/50 Thu (01 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Becoming Partly Sunny. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 34/54 Fri (02 Apr): Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/53 Sat (03 Apr): Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 40/55 Sun (04 Apr): Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/55 Mon (05 Apr): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 39/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 29 12:17:32 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 29 Mar 2010 14:17:32 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 29th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Monday, March 29th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: Strong southerly winds, gusting to over 80 mph, hit the Oregon coast overnight, with gusts close to 50 mph in the Willamette Valley. The National Weather Service wind tower, at Garibaldi, recorded a wind gust early this morning of 85 mph. 77 mph winds were clocked at the Yaquina Bay Bridge, in Newport. Mt. Hebo, in the northern coastal range, recorded a peak gust of 96 mph. In the Willamette Valley, southerly winds gusted to 46 mph in Salem and to 38 mph in Portland. Heavy rain accompanied the strong winds, with rainfall totals of one-half to one inch common both along the coast and in the Willamette Valley over the past 24 hours. Troutdale picked an additional .52 inches of rain, since 5am, bringing their 36-hour total to 1.58 inches. Salem picked up .55 inches of rain in the 6-hour period ending at 11 a.m., with a 36-hour total of 1.56 inches. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed southerly pressure gradients continuing across the entire state. South-southwesterly winds have backed off some since early this morning but were still gusting to over 30 mph across western Oregon...especially south. Winds were increasing east of the Cascades, with gusts over 50 mph at Burns and over 40 mph from Hermiston to Rome. The strong cold front, responsible for the stormy weather, has stalled near the Oregon coast, with an upper-level front progressing eastward over eastern Oregon. Satellite imagery showed mostly solid cloud-cover across the entire state, with a few breaks in the clouds over northwestern Oregon. Doppler radar and surface reports showed locally heavy rain continuing to fall across sections of western Oregon, with some spots seeing a break from the rain. Only a few areas of light rain were making it east of the Cascades. The freezing level jumped to 6-7000 feet Sunday afternoon but was falling late this morning, in the wake of the upper-level cold front. ODOT road cameras showed the rain changing to snow over the Cascade passes, where temperatures had dropped to near the freezing mark. The surface cold front is forecast to slowly progress eastward, across western Oregon, and push into eastern Oregno later this afternoon. In its wake, the steady rain will turn showery, with colder air aloft continuing to drop the snow levels in the Cascades. Satellite imagery shows impressive cumulus cloud development approaching the coastline, so scattered thunderstorms are likely to move onshore later this afternoon. Some thunderstorms have already developed in the northern Willamette Valley that could produce hail up to one-half inch in diameter. With lowering snow levels and increasing shower activity expected, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning, for elevations above 4000 feet, where more than foot of new possible is possible later this afternoon and tonight. That is much-needed snowfall but could cause serious travel delays over the Cascade passes. Thunderstorms will likely produce bursts of mostly small hail along the coast and across the western valleys later this afternoon and this evening. However, some hail could be as large as one-half inch in diameter. Stormy conditions held overnight temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 40s across western Oregon. Late-morning readings ranged from the mid 40s to the low 50s. Highs this afternoon should only warm into the 50-55 degrees range. Pressure gradients are forecast to turn more southwesterly, in the wake of the cold front, this afternoon. Continued blustery southwesterly winds and cooling air aloft will provide excellent ventilation conditions today for agricultural and stack burning. Surface Winds: SW 10-20 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 105. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 61%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:36pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:56am. Extended Outlook: A cold and unstable air mass will move over Oregon Tuesday and Wednesday, with frequent showers and likely some afternoon thunderstorms. Coastal and valley locations will likely see more bursts of small hail. Snow levels will remain well below the Cascade passes and could drop as low as the coastal range passes by Tuesday night. The main jet stream energy will sag southward, to over California, by Wednesday. However, plenty of cold air aloft will combine with daytime heating to trigger plenty of showers across Oregon, with the mountains continuing to pick up much-needed snowfall. A transitory ridge of high pressure is forecast to move onshore Thursday and warm the air aloft enough to stabilize the atmosphere and decrease the showers across the state. Clearing skies could allow temperatures to approach the freezing mark across the Willamette Valley Thursday morning. Partly sunny skies and warmer air aloft will help daytime highs climb closer to normal Thursday afternoon, with only a slight chance of a shower. Another cool Pacific storm is forecast to bring more valley rain and mountain snow on Friday, with snow levels staying below the Cascade passes. Showers will follow the cold front on Saturday, with more snow expected in the mountains. The next system may take aim more at California, on Easter Sunday, but that is getting too far out to call. Tue (30 Mar): Showers and T-storms with Small Hail. Snow Level Dropping to 2500 Feet. 40/51 Wed (31 Mar): Showers and T-storms with Small Hail. Snow Level Dropping to 1500 Feet. 36/50 Thu (01 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Becoming Partly Sunny. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 34/54 Fri (02 Apr): Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/53 Sat (03 Apr): Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 40/55 Sun (04 Apr): Chance of Rain...Mainly South. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/55 Mon (05 Apr): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 39/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 30 09:11:41 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 30 Mar 2010 11:11:41 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 30th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 30th, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: The strong cold front that brought heavy rain strong winds to western Oregon late Sunday and early Monday pushed east of the Cascades Monday afternoon. It brought strong southwesterly winds to central and eastern Oregon, with gusts to around 50 mph common. A developing wave of low-pressure formed along the front and stalled it over southeastern Oregon this morning. Winds had decreased significantly across the entire state by this morning, with the strongest gusts, around 25-30 mph, from Klamath Falls to Rome. Colder air aloft was pouring onshore and across Oregon this morning, via a strong west-southwesterly flow aloft. The freezing level over Salem was measured early this morning at just 2500 feet, which puts the snow level near 1500 feet. Strong onshore flow was producing heavy upslope snow over the Cascades, with more than 6 inches of new snow creating winter driving conditions over the passes. 1-2 inches of snow was reported just east of Lyons, at only 1100 feet, in the western Cascade foothills this morning. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 11 a.m., above 4000 feet in the Cascades. Rainfall totals over the pass 48 hours have generally ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 inches along the coast and across the Willamette Valley. Radar showed widespread mostly light rain continuing to circulate onshore. The ODA surface analyis showed a weakening of the southerly gradients across the state, with a circulation center in central Oregon, near Redmond. Satellite imagery showed more impressive cumulus cloud development moving onshore this morning, so numerous showers are in store for all of Oregon today. Daytime heating should also help some thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Some storms could produce small hail. Snow levels may drop low enough for wet snow over the coastal range passes...especially by tonight. Even with cloudy skies and showers overnight, cooling aloft dropped temperatures into the upper 30s and low 40s across western Oregon. Highs today will not likely reach 50 in the Willamette Valley. High mixing heights and continued blustery south-southwesterly winds will make for good ventilation conditions today. Surface Winds: S 5-15 G20 this morning, SSW 7-17 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 18 this morning, SW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 100. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 49. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 65%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:37pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:55am. Extended Outlook: A cold and unstable air mass will remain over Oregon Wednesday, with frequent showers and likely some afternoon thunderstorms. Coastal and valley locations may get bursts of small hail. Snow levels will be near the coastal range passes, with wet snow mixing with heavier showers in the higher hills around the Willamette Valley. The main jet stream energy will sag southward, to over California...taking the main thrust of shower activity will it. However, cold air aloft will combine with daytime heating to trigger plenty of showers across Oregon, with the mountains continuing to pick up much-needed snowfall. A transitory ridge of high pressure is forecast to move onshore Thursday and warm the air aloft enough to stabilize the atmosphere and decrease the showers across the state. Clearing skies could allow temperatures to approach the freezing mark across the Willamette Valley Thursday morning. Partly sunny skies and warmer air aloft will help daytime highs climb closer to normal Thursday afternoon, with only a slight chance of a shower. Another cold Pacific storm is forecast to bring more valley rain and mountain snow on Friday, with snow levels well below the Cascade passes. Showers will follow the cold front on Saturday, with more snow expected in the mountains. The next system may take aim more at California, on Easter Sunday, but it appears as if it will be close enough for more rain and mountain snow to spread northward over Oregon. Temperatures will remain well below normal. Wed (31 Mar): Showers and T-storms with Small Hail. Snow Level as Low as 1000 Feet. 36/50 Thu (01 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Becoming Partly Sunny. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 34/54 Fri (02 Apr): Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 40/51 Sat (03 Apr): Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/52 Easter Sunday (04 Apr): Rain and Mountain Snow Likely. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/52 Mon (05 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 39/54 Tue (06 Apr): Partly Sunny. 41/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 30 12:10:43 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 30 Mar 2010 14:10:43 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 30th, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 30th, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: Cold air aloft began moving over western Oregon Monday afternoon and continues to surge inland over the region today, in the wake of a powerful cold front that has stalled over southeastern Oregon. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed a weak low-pressure center moving slowly northeastward, out of central Oregon, with an occluded front extending from it across southeastern Oregon. What\'s left of the warm air associated with this system has been forced aloft, so surface temperatures are cold enough to support snow across much of central and eastern Oregon. In addition, winds are still fairly brisk near the front. Southwesterly wind-gusts between 20 and 30 mph are making for a bone-chilling late March day across central and southeastern Oregon, where temperatures are barely above freezing. The front appears to have just passed through Rome, Oregon, where winds were gusting to nearly 40 mph with a temperature of 35. The freezing level over Salem was measured early this morning at just 2500 feet, which puts the snow level near 1500 feet. Strong onshore flow was producing heavy upslope snow over the Cascades, with more than 6 inches of new snow over the passes creating winter driving conditions. The higher ski areas have received up to a foot and a half of new snow. 1-2 inches of snow fell down to as low as 1100 feet, just east of Lyons, in the western Cascade foothills, this morning. Strong onshore flow is continuing to rotate significant shower activity onshore and across Oregon. Doppler Radar shows widespread, mostly light, showers across all of western Oregon. Upslope conditions are still producing significant snow over the Cascades, with the passes picking up 2-4 inches of new snow since the morning report. Due to the rainshadowing effect of the Cascades, showers are more widely scattered over central and eastern Oregon. Satellite imagery continues to show impressive cumulus cloud development moving onshore, so numerous showers are in store for all of western Oregon today. What little daytime heating we are able to get could help some thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Some storms could produce small hail. Snow levels may drop low enough for wet snow over the coastal range passes by this evening. The strong onshore flow will begin to shift south of the region tonight, but cold air aloft and nighttime cooling will drop the snow level down to between 500 and 1000 feet. Midday temperatures had only warmed to near 40 degrees and highs today will be lucky to climb into the upper 40s across western Oregon. High mixing heights and continued blustery south-southwesterly winds will make for good ventilation conditions today. Surface Winds: S 5-15 G20 this morning, SSW 7-17 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 18 this morning, SW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 100. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 69%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:37pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:55am. Extended Outlook: A cold and unstable air mass will remain over Oregon Wednesday, with frequent showers and likely some afternoon thunderstorms. Coastal and valley locations may get bursts of small hail. Snow levels will be near the coastal range passes, with wet snow mixing with heavier showers in the higher hills around the Willamette Valley. The main jet stream energy will sag southward, to over California...taking the main thrust of shower activity will it. However, cold air aloft will combine with daytime heating to trigger plenty of showers across Oregon, with the mountains continuing to pick up much-needed snowfall. A transitory ridge of high pressure is forecast to move onshore Thursday and warm the air aloft enough to stabilize the atmosphere and decrease the showers across the state. Clearing skies could allow temperatures to approach the freezing mark across the Willamette Valley Thursday morning. Partly sunny skies and warmer air aloft will help daytime highs climb closer to normal Thursday afternoon, with only a slight chance of a shower. Another cold Pacific storm is forecast to bring more valley rain and mountain snow on Friday, with snow levels well below the Cascade passes. Showers will follow the cold front on Saturday, with more snow expected in the mountains. The next system may take aim more at California, on Easter Sunday, but it appears as if it will be close enough for more rain and mountain snow to spread northward over Oregon. Temperatures will remain well below normal. Wed (31 Mar): Showers and T-storms with Small Hail. Snow Level as Low as 1000 Feet. 36/50 Thu (01 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Becoming Partly Sunny. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 34/54 Fri (02 Apr): Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 40/51 Sat (03 Apr): Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/52 Easter Sunday (04 Apr): Rain and Mountain Snow Likely. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/52 Mon (05 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 39/54 Tue (06 Apr): Partly Sunny. 41/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 31 09:13:04 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 31 Mar 2010 11:13:04 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 31st, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 31st, 2010 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: The strength of the onshore flow weakened overnight with decreasing rain and snow showers across the state. The flow aloft has become more southerly, in response to a digging upper-level trough just off the coast. Skies stayed mostly cloudy overnight with snow levels near 1000 feet. There was still just enough upslope flow to keep some snow showers going over the western slopes of the Cascades and the higher elevations in the coast range, but the valleys stayed mostly dry. About 4-8 inches of new snow have fallen in the Cascade ski areas, during the past 24 hours, which is significantly less than during the previous 24 hours. The ODA surface analysis shows that pressure gradients have relaxed across Oregon. Winds were southerly, at less than 10 mph, across western Oregon and variable over central and eastern Oregon. Even with mostly cloudy skies across the entire state, temperatures are quite chilly this morning. Readings west of the Cascades are around 40 degrees with most of central and eastern Oregon below freezing. The jet stream has sagged southward and is now over northern and central California...taking the main thrust of shower activity will it. However, a cold air mass will remain over Oregon today, with daytime heating increasing the instability and producing scattered showers across western Oregon. Some showers may produce bursts of small hail. There is also a chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Even with some sunbreaks today, cold air aloft and strong mixing of the air mass will keep Willamette Valley highs from climbing above about 50 degree, which is well below normal. Snow levels will remain very low today. Some snow flakes may mix with rain, down to as low as the higher hills around the Willamette Valley, under the heavier showers. A couple of inches of new snow are possible over the Cascades passes today, where many road surfaces are already snow-packed this morning. High mixing heights and light southwest to westerly transport winds will provide excellent ventilation for agricultural and stack burning today. Surface Winds: SSE 5-15 this morning, W 5-15 by late this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 10 this morning, W 15 by late this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 58%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:39pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:53am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure is forecast to move onshore tomorrow, with a slightly warmer northwesterly flow aloft stabilizing the atmosphere just enough to decrease the shower activity across the state. Clearing skies, Thursday morning, could allow temperatures to locally approach the freezing mark across the Willamette Valley. Some sunshine Thursday afternoon will help valley temperatures recover into the mid 50s...still below normal for the start of April. Another cold Pacific storm is forecast to bring more valley rain and mountain snow on Friday, with snow levels well below the Cascade passes. Snow totals in the Cascades will likely exceed a foot, once again, with a few inches of snow also likely in the higher elevations of the coast range. An upper-level trough will maintain shower activity across western Oregon Saturday, with a few more inches of snow possible in the mountains. The next system now appears as if it will be directed at southern Oregon and northern California, on Easter Sunday, with enough moisture spreading northward to bring more rain and mountain snow to most of Oregon. A cool northwesterly flow aloft will keep some showers going across western Oregon on Monday. Things may dry out briefly next Tuesday, before yet another spring strom moves onshore next Wednesday. Temperatures will remain well below normal. Thu (01 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of a Shower. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 34/54 Fri (02 Apr): Rain and Heavy Mountain Snow. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 40/51 Sat (03 Apr): Showers and Very Cool. Snow Level 1500-2500 Feet. 37/50 Easter Sunday (04 Apr): Rain and Mountain Snow Likely. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/52 Mon (05 Apr): Showers Likely. Continued Cool. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 39/52 Tue (06 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of a Shower. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/55 Wed (07 Apr): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 44/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 31 12:11:31 2010 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 31 Mar 2010 14:11:31 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 31st, 2010 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 31st, 2010 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:00pm. Weather Discussion: The strength of the onshore flow has weakened today, with the flow aloft becoming more southerly, in response to a cold upper-level trough digging southward just off the coast. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed weak southerly pressure gradients across western Oregon with winds generally less than 10 mph. Satellite imagery showed daytime heating beginning to increase convective cloud development, especially along the coast. Doppler radar was also beginning to show some shower development across western Oregon. The jet stream has sagged southward and is now over northern and central California...taking the main thrust of shower activity will it. However, a cold air mass will remain over Oregon today, with daytime heating increasing the instability and producing scattered showers across western Oregon. Some showers may produce bursts of small hail. There is also a chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Midday temperatures were in the mid to upper 40s across western Oregon. Even with some sunbreaks today, cold air aloft and strong mixing of the air mass will keep Willamette Valley highs from climbing much above the 50 degree mark (well below the normal high of around 58 degrees). The freezing level is near 2500 feet. Snow levels will remain very low today. Some snow flakes may mix with rain, down to as low as the higher hills around the Willamette Valley, under the heavier showers. A couple of inches of new snow are possible over the Cascades passes today, where many road surfaces were clearing from the recent heavy snows. High mixing heights and light southwest to westerly transport winds will provide excellent ventilation for agricultural and stack burning today. Surface Winds: S 5-15 mph...becoming W 5-15 by late this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 10 mph...becoming W 15 by late this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 58%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:39pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:53am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge of high pressure is forecast to move onshore tomorrow, with a slightly warmer northwesterly flow aloft stabilizing the atmosphere just enough to decrease the shower activity across the state. Clearing skies, Thursday morning, could allow temperatures to locally approach the freezing mark across the Willamette Valley. Some sunshine Thursday afternoon will help valley temperatures recover into the mid 50s...still below normal for the start of April. Another cold Pacific storm is forecast to bring more valley rain and mountain snow on Friday, with snow levels well below the Cascade passes. Snow totals in the Cascades will likely exceed a foot, once again, with a few inches of snow also likely in the higher elevations of the coast range. An upper-level trough will maintain shower activity across western Oregon Saturday, with a few more inches of snow possible in the mountains. The next system now appears as if it will be directed at southern Oregon and northern California, on Easter Sunday, with enough moisture spreading northward to bring more rain and mountain snow to most of Oregon. A cool northwesterly flow aloft will keep some showers going across western Oregon on Monday. Things may dry out briefly next Tuesday, before yet another spring strom moves onshore next Wednesday. Temperatures will remain well below normal. Thu (01 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of a Shower. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 34/54 Fri (02 Apr): Rain and Heavy Mountain Snow. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 40/51 Sat (03 Apr): Showers and Very Cool. Snow Level 1500-2500 Feet. 37/50 Easter Sunday (04 Apr): Rain and Mountain Snow Likely. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/52 Mon (05 Apr): Showers Likely. Continued Cool. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 39/52 Tue (06 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of a Shower. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/55 Wed (07 Apr): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 44/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us