[willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc
Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast
willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Mon Jul 25 08:41:59 PDT 2011
SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE
8:40 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2011
BURN ADVISORY:
Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 12:00pm to 7:00pm.
Prep burning is not allowed.
Propane flaming is allowed from 12:00pm to 5:00pm.
WEATHER DISCUSSION:
An upper-level trough will move through the region today. It brought a moderate marine push to the area last evening. Expect a considerably cooler day today with temperatures around 15 degrees lower than yesterday. A chance of sprinkles are possible this morning but the marine cloud cover will slowly break up to partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Air mass will be generally unstable today with considerably cooler air aloft from the upper trough.
This morning's sounding over Salem showed the moist marine layer up to around 3000 ft. Since the marine air isn't too thick it should break up some this afternoon. Wind flow is quite light showing that most of the energy of the marine push has pushed east of the region. Gradient stacking confirms this with the main gradient stacking over the Cascades. This should gradually equalize this afternoon.
TODAY'S FORECAST:
Salem's high temperature today will be near 74.
Minimum relative humidity 51%.
Surface winds: SW 3-6 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 5-9 mph this afternoon.
Transport winds: SW at 4-7 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6-10 mph during the afternoon.
Mixing height: Rising to 4000 ft by noon and up to 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Sunset tonight: 8:47 pm
THREE-HOURLY DATA:
11am 2pm 5pm 8pm
Temperature: 66 71 74 68
Relative Humidity: 68% 57% 51% 63%
Surface Wind Direction: 220 230 280 290
Surface Wind Speed: 4 5 7 8
Transport Wind Direction: 260 280 300 320
Transport Wind Speed: 5 6 8 10
Estimated Mixing Height: 3800 4500 5000 2500
Ventilation Index: 19 27 40 25
EXTENDED DISCUSSION:
Upper level trough will move by to the east of the state tonight as it weakens. Expect gradual warming. A minor ridge tries to move in on Wednesday but flattens as it moves in, leaving the region under westerly flow aloft. Temperatures gradually return to seasonal normals. Wind flow turns northerly through the remainder of the week with slight onshore flow during the later afternoon. However, it appears it won't be enough to make for good burning conditions.
The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text
Notes:
1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the
potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the
surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to
which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and
winds less than about 15mph.
2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height,
weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.
3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times
the transport wind speed divided by 1000.
4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction.
At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local
terrain conditions.
This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of
Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.
Nick Yonker
ODF Meteorologist
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