From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 1 08:40:20 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 01 Aug 2012 11:40:20 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Wed, Aug 01 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 1 11:43:05 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2012 11:43:05 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED AUG 01, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 12:00pm to 2:00pm with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from 12:00pm to 5:00pm. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak upper level trough to zonal-like pattern remains over the Pacific Northwest today. Satellite picture shows marine low clouds dissipating out of the Willamette Valley as temperatures warm. Expect little change in the upper air pattern today with only a minor disturbance moving down from the north later today and tonight. Mixing heights rise to similar levels as yesterday reaching about 3000 ft around noon and 4500 ft by late afternoon. Transport and surface winds will be mostly a light NW to N. Pressure gradient stacking has increased to the east with gradients 1.3 mb onshore from Newport to Salem and 3.3 mb onshore from Salem to Redmond. Portland to Medford gradient is 3.9 mb northerly. Gradients should increase some over the Coast Range this afternoon but probably not enough to overtake the gradient stacking over the Cascades. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm Salem's high temperature today will be near 81. Relative humidity drops to 50% by 1:00 pm. Minimum relative humidity 35%. Surface winds: NNW to N at 4 - 8 mph Transport winds: NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon Maximum mixing height: 4500 feet Sunset tonight: 8:37 pm THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2pm 5pm 8pm Temperature: 77 81 70 Relative Humidity: 42% 35% 49% Surface Wind Direction: 350 350 320 Surface Wind Speed: 7 8 8 Transport Wind Direction: 350 340 320 Transport Wind Speed: 7 8 11 Estimated Mixing Height: 3800 4500 2000 Ventilation Index: 27 36 22 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level trough moves down from the north and may increase the onshore flow tomorrow afternoon. It's still questionable, however, whether it will be enough for a burning opportunity. This trough will move to the east Friday giving way to an upper ridge. Expect warming conditions through the weekend with mostly northerly to offshore flow. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 2 08:54:19 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 2 Aug 2012 08:54:19 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU AUG 2, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough cutting across southwestern British Columbia is maintaining a dry and stable westerly flow aloft and weak onshore flow at the surface across northwestern Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed a very similar temperature profile to Wednesday morning, with continued weak northerly winds below 3000 feet. Visible satellite imagery shows low clouds along much of the northern and central coast this morning, with patchy low clouds over mainly the northern Willamette Valley. Today should turn out very similar to yesterday, with brief areas of morning clouds giving way to plenty of sunshine. There is some minor pressure gradient stacking this morning, but daytime heating may balance that out again this afternoon, much like it did yesterday. Transport winds are forecast to maintain a significant northerly component, so any burning opportunities will likely be limited. (Salem Airport on Wednesday, August 1st: High 82?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Patchy morning clouds; becoming sunny and seasonably warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to 60% by noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NNW 7-12 mph this evening. Transport winds: NNW 8-10 mph; increasing to 10-15 mph this evening. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around noon and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:36 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 67 76 80 74 Relative Humidity: 61% 45% 38% 50% Surface Wind Direction: 350 350 350 320 Surface Wind Speed: 7 7 9 10 Transport Wind Direction: 350 350 340 340 Transport Wind Speed: 8 8 10 14 Mixing Height: 2000 4000 4500 2000 Ventilation Index: 16 32 45 28 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The Canadian upper-level trough is forecast to drop into eastern Montana and western North Dakota on Friday, with a building offshore ridge of high pressure turning the flow aloft more northerly over Oregon. That should shut off the onshore flow across the Willamette Valley and allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s. The ridge is forecast to move directly over Oregon on Saturday with a surface thermal trough pushing northward over the region. That should produce the warmest temperatures so far this year, with valley highs climbing at least into the mid 90s. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward by Sunday, with increasing southerly flow aloft introducing middle and high-level monsoonal moisture into the region. That will begin a cooling process but also bring in a chance of thunderstorms. The flow aloft is forecast to turn more southwesterly Monday and Tuesday, which would push the thunderstorm threat east of the region and increase the onshore flow. That will need to be watched closely, as it could create a significant burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 2 11:56:57 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 2 Aug 2012 11:56:57 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT THU AUG 2, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, cutting across southwestern British Columbia, is maintaining a dry and stable westerly flow aloft. Infrared satellite imagery shows a narrow band of associated mainly middle and high clouds stretching from northern Idaho across northern Oregon. At the surface, weak onshore flow continues across northwestern Oregon. Late-morning visible satellite imagery showed low clouds extending from the north coast, along the Columbia River, into the extreme northern Willamette Valley. Patchy morning low clouds have given way to sunshine in the Silverton Hills region. Today should turn out very similar to yesterday, with plenty of sunshine and mostly northerly winds. There continues to be some pressure gradient stacking this morning, but daytime heating may balance that out later this afternoon, much like it did yesterday. Transport winds are forecast to be mostly northerly, which should limit field-burning opportunities. Pibals are scheduled to begin at 2:00 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and seasonably warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NNW 7-12 mph this evening. Transport winds: NNW 8-12 mph; becoming NW 10-15 mph this evening. Mixing height: Rising to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:36 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 76 80 74 Relative Humidity: 45% 38% 50% Surface Wind Direction: 350 350 320 Surface Wind Speed: 8 9 10 Transport Wind Direction: 350 350 340 Transport Wind Speed: 10 10 14 Mixing Height: 4000 4500 2000 Ventilation Index: 40 45 28 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The Canadian upper-level trough is forecast to drop into eastern Montana and western North Dakota on Friday, with a building offshore ridge of high pressure turning the flow aloft more northerly over Oregon. That should shut off the onshore flow across the Willamette Valley and allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s. North to northeast transport winds will be unfavorable for burning. The ridge is forecast to move directly over Oregon on Saturday with a surface thermal trough pushing northward over the region. That should produce the warmest temperatures so far this year, with valley highs climbing at least into the mid 90s. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward by Sunday, with increasing southerly flow aloft introducing middle and high-level monsoonal moisture into the region. That will begin a cooling process but also bring in a chance of thunderstorms. The flow aloft is forecast to turn more southwesterly Monday and Tuesday. That should stabilize the air mass and bring increasing onshore flow. Significant cooling is forecast by next Tuesday, which could correspond with a burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 3 08:55:45 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2012 08:55:45 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI AUG 3, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: ...State Fire Marshal Conditions may be met this afternoon (humidity and wind)... Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough that brought onshore flow the past couple of days is dropping into eastern Montana and western North Dakota this morning. A building offshore ridge of high pressure has turned the flow aloft more northerly over Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed several degrees of warming above 4000 feet, compared to 24 hours ago, and increasing offshore flow above 2000 feet. That is an indication of sinking air aloft, which will further warm and dry the air mass today. Visible satellite imagery shows low clouds along the coast and over most of the Willamette Valley this morning. The marine clouds should quickly give way to sunshine, as increasing north to northeasterly winds rapidly dry out the air mass over western Oregon. Continued warming aloft will suppress mixing this afternoon, which will combine with northeasterly transport winds to make for highly unfavorable burning conditions. (Salem Airport on Thursday, August 2nd: High 81?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning clouds, then sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to 50% around noon and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 7-12 mph; becoming NNE 10-16 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 10-15 mph; increasing to 16-22 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 1 p.m. and to near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:35 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 70 80 86 80 Relative Humidity: 64% 41% 29% 38% Surface Wind Direction: 010 010 020 010 Surface Wind Speed: 8 10 14 13 Transport Wind Direction: 020 030 040 030 Transport Wind Speed: 13 17 20 20 Mixing Height: 2500 3500 4000 2000 Ventilation Index: 33 60 80 40 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge is forecast to move directly over Oregon on Saturday with a surface thermal trough pushing northward over the region. The lack of morning marine clouds will combine with very warm air aloft and offshore flow to produce the warmest temperatures so far this year. Willamette Valley temperatures should climb into the mid and upper 90s, with State Fire Marshal Conditions likely being met Saturday afternoon. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward by Sunday, with increasing southerly flow aloft destabilizing the air mass and introducing middle and high-level monsoonal moisture into the region. That will begin a cooling process and bring a good chance of thunderstorms, especially Sunday night. The flow aloft is forecast to turn more southwesterly Monday and Tuesday. That should stabilize the air mass with increasing onshore flow. The timing of that transition could create burning opportunities. Temperatures should return to normal by Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 3 11:57:49 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2012 11:57:49 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT FRI AUG 3, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: ...State Fire Marshal Conditions may be met late today (humidity and wind)... Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough that brought onshore flow the past couple of days dropped into eastern Montana and western North Dakota this morning. A building offshore ridge of high pressure is producing a warmer, drier and stable northerly flow aloft over Oregon. Late-morning visible satellite imagery showed marine low clouds persisting along the immediate coastline but rapidly evaporating inland. Expect sunny skies across the Willamette Valley this afternoon with temperatures likely topping out at least 5 degrees warmer than on Thursday. The ODF SODAR, located near Elkton in the coast range, was showing brisk NE winds from just above the surface up to 4000 feet late this morning. All forecast models are calling for further strengthening of the offshore flow across northwestern Oregon today, which will combine with warming aloft to make for highly unfavorable burning conditions. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, warmer, and breezy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 7-12 mph; becoming NNE 10-16 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 10-15 mph; increasing to 16-22 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 1 p.m. and to near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:35 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 80 86 80 Relative Humidity: 41% 29% 38% Surface Wind Direction: 010 020 010 Surface Wind Speed: 10 14 13 Transport Wind Direction: 030 040 030 Transport Wind Speed: 17 20 20 Mixing Height: 3500 4000 2000 Ventilation Index: 60 80 40 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge is forecast to move directly over Oregon on Saturday with a surface thermal trough pushing northward over the region. A full day of sunshine will combine with very warm air aloft and offshore flow to produce the highest temperatures so far this year. Highs in the Willamette Valley should be in the middle and upper 90s. State Fire Marshal Conditions will likely be met Saturday afternoon due to hot temperatures and low relative humidity. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward by Sunday, with increasing southerly flow aloft destabilizing the air mass and introducing monsoonal moisture into the region. Increasing middle and high clouds will block some sunshine, resulting in a few degrees of cooling, but highs should still climb well into the 90s. An upper-level disturbance is forecast to rotate northward, across Oregon, late Sunday. That will bring a chance of thunderstorms to most of the state, including the Willamette Valley, especially Sunday night. The flow aloft is forecast to turn southwesterly Monday and Tuesday. That should stabilize the air mass and push the thunderstorms east of the region. Increasing onshore flow will cool temperatures back to normal by Tuesday; possibly creating burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 6 08:27:12 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 06 Aug 2012 11:27:12 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Aug 06 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 6 11:53:59 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 06 Aug 2012 14:53:59 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Aug 06 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 7 08:37:24 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 07 Aug 2012 11:37:24 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Aug 07 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 7 11:51:52 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 07 Aug 2012 14:51:52 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Aug 07 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 8 08:55:17 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 8 Aug 2012 08:55:17 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED AUG 8, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from noon until 6:30 p.m. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A broad upper-level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the Southwestern United States with a south-southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon and Washington. A weak disturbance in the force shifted the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades Tuesday evening, initiating a "marine push" into the Willamette Valley. That system is moving over northwestern Washington this morning and will reinforce the marine layer over NW Oregon today. Satellite imagery this morning shows extensive coverage of marine low clouds over northwestern Oregon. The Salem sounding showed several degrees of cooling, from just above the surface up through 10,000 feet, compared to Tuesday morning. Pilot reports this morning indicated that the marine clouds are only about 1000 feet thick with the top of the cloud deck near 3000 feet. That is usually indicative of an early break-up of the cloud deck, but continued strong onshore flow should delay that process into the afternoon. Look for the look clouds to give way to sunshine around the mid-afternoon. Temperatures should be several degrees cooler than on Tuesday, but cooler air aloft will result in higher afternoon mixing heights. As is usually the case after a "marine push," there is significant pressure gradient stacking east of the Willamette Valley this morning. That is not conducive to good burning conditions, and it is unlikely that the valley will get enough heating to effectively reverse the gradient stacking this afternoon. Light south to southwesterly winds will switch to the north-northwest this afternoon. (Salem Airport on Tuesday, August 7th: High 84?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning clouds giving way to sunshine by mid-afternoon. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to 60% around noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light south; becoming NNW 5-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 3-5 mph; becoming NNW 7-14 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:28 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 66 75 78 71 Relative Humidity: 63% 47% 42% 57% Surface Wind Direction: 180 340 350 340 Surface Wind Speed: 3 5 7 9 Transport Wind Direction: 240 340 340 340 Transport Wind Speed: 3 6 9 12 Mixing Height: 2800 4500 5000 3000 Ventilation Index: 8 27 45 36 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Another weak upper-level trough will maintain the onshore flow pattern across western Oregon on Thursday, with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine. Gradient stacking may, once again, be unfavorable for open burning, and transport winds will have a significant northerly component. The flow aloft should weaken and turn more westerly on Friday, with more sunshine lifting temperatures to slightly above normal. However, transport winds are forecast to remain mostly northerly. Little change to the overall weather pattern is forecast through early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 8 11:34:58 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 8 Aug 2012 11:34:58 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:35 AM PDT WED AUG 8, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from noon until 6:30 p.m. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Late morning satellite imagery continued to show marine low clouds covering most of northwestern Oregon, but some breaks in the overcast were beginning to appear in the central Willamette Valley. The low clouds should slowly break up this afternoon, with high temperatures likely staying in the 70s. Cooler air aloft will result in high afternoon mixing heights. However, there continues to be significant pressure gradient stacking east of the Willamette Valley. That is not conducive to good ventilation, for burning, and is unlikely to reverse this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Slowly clearing skies this afternoon. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10; Becoming NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10; Becoming NNW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:28 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 75 78 71 Relative Humidity: 47% 42% 57% Surface Wind Direction: 330 350 340 Surface Wind Speed: 5 7 9 Transport Wind Direction: 310 340 340 Transport Wind Speed: 6 9 12 Mixing Height: 4500 5000 3000 Ventilation Index: 27 45 36 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Another weak upper-level trough will maintain the onshore flow pattern across western Oregon, on Thursday, with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine. Gradient stacking may, once again, be unfavorable for open burning, and transport winds will be mostly northerly. A weak westerly flow aloft, on Friday, will maintain a pattern of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine. Temperatures should stay near normal. Northerly transport winds will keep the potential for burning opportunities low. Little change to the weather pattern is forecast through early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 9 08:55:34 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 9 Aug 2012 08:55:34 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT THU AUG 9, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 1 p.m. until 3 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A broad upper-level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the Southwestern United States with a southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. At the surface, onshore gradients have relaxed and turned more northerly. The Salem sounding this morning showed northeasterly winds extending from just above the surface up through 4000 feet. That has resulted in a less expansive marine layer across western Oregon this morning. However, a weak upper-level disturbance, centered off the southern Oregon coast, is spreading considerable clouds across the region. It is forecast to slowly move across the state today; keeping skies at least partly cloudy. The air aloft has warmed several degrees in the past 24 hours, so high temperatures should be close to normal this afternoon, in spite of some clouds. The warming aloft will make for lower mixing heights this afternoon, compared to Wednesday. However, gradient stacking will be less of an issue for burning. The northeasterly transport winds should turn northerly by late-morning and could possibly turn enough onshore, late this afternoon, to create a limited burning opportunity. (Salem Airport on Wednesday: High 77?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon. A little warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 82 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2 p.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NNW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph; becoming NNW 10-16 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to near 3800 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:26 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 67 76 81 74 Relative Humidity: 65% 48% 40% 50% Surface Wind Direction: N N NNW NW Surface Wind Speed: 6 8 9 12 Transport Wind Direction: N N NNW NW Transport Wind Speed: 10 12 15 17 Mixing Height: 2200 3000 3800 2000 Ventilation Index: 22 36 57 34 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will move across western Oregon tonight and slightly reinforce the marine layer. That should produce morning clouds, on Friday, with afternoon sunshine. There is a slight chance of a late-day limited burning window, but morning gradient stacking will need to be overcome and northerly transport winds will need to turn onshore. Little change to the weather pattern is forecast through early next week, with continued possible limited late-day burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 9 11:49:41 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 9 Aug 2012 11:49:41 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT THU AUG 9, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 1 p.m. until 3 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level disturbance, centered over the southern Oregon coast at midday, is circulating considerable clouds northward over the Willamette Valley. The system is forecast to migrate northeastward, across western Oregon, this afternoon. That will maintain at least partly cloudy skies and should maintain general lifting of the upper-level air mass. Gradient stacking has eased today and may balance out, with daytime heating, later this afternoon. Transport winds are forecast to be northerly this afternoon, but there is a chance that they will turn enough onshore to create a limited burning opportunity. Pibals are scheduled to begin at 2:00 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly sunny this afternoon. A little warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 82 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2 p.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-13 mph. Transport winds: N 10-16 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to near 3800 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:26 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 76 81 74 Relative Humidity: 48% 40% 50% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 10 N 12 NW 12 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: N 12 N 15 NW 17 Mixing Height: 3000 3800 2000 Ventilation Index: 36 57 34 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough will move across western Oregon tonight and slightly reinforce the marine layer. Expect morning clouds, on Friday, with afternoon sunshine. Once again, there is a chance of a late-day limited burning window, but morning gradient stacking will need to be overcome and northerly transport winds will need to turn onshore. Little change to the weather pattern is forecast through early next week, with continued possible limited late-day burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 10 08:54:58 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 10 Aug 2012 08:54:58 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT FRI AUG 10, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough moved onshore this morning and deepened the marine layer. Low clouds cover much of western Oregon this morning, with the exception of extreme southern Oregon and sections of the Willamette Valley. Marine clouds may still fill in the areas of the valley that were getting some early morning sunshine. Salem's morning sounding showed some minor cooling from 2500-4500 feet, but some additional cooling is likely with the current influx of marine air. That will make for slightly higher mixing heights later today. However, gradient stacking has increased this morning, which is not conducive to good smoke ventilation from the valley. Morning clouds should give way to sunshine this afternoon, with near average temperatures. Open burning is unlikely today, due to the combination of unfavorable gradient stacking and forecast brisk northern transport winds. (Salem Airport on Thursday: High 83?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly clouds; turning sunny and breezy in the afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 82 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2 p.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-14 mph this morning; N 12-18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to near 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:25 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 67 76 82 74 Relative Humidity: 61% 47% 38% 50% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 5 N 10 N 12 NW 12 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: N 12 N 14 N 16 N 18 Mixing Height: 2700 3800 4500 2500 Ventilation Index: 32 53 72 45 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A warm-up is expected this weekend, as an upper-level ridge builds over the region. Sunshine and offshore flow will likely push valley highs into the 90s. A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to put a dint in the ridge on Monday; turning the low-level flow onshore and possibly creating a burning opportunity. Temperatures will likely cool back into the 80s, but no precipitation is expected. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 10 11:54:46 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 10 Aug 2012 11:54:46 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT FRI AUG 10, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The weak upper-level trough that moved onshore this morning was pushing into central Oregon at midday. A reinforced marine layer, across western Oregon, is making for a slow break-up of the morning clouds, especially along the western foothills of the Cascades. Expect sunny skies by mid-afternoon. Moderate gradient stacking, which is not conducive to good smoke ventilation from the valley, may get balanced out by afternoon heating. However, transport winds are forecast to remain northerly and a bit brisk. Pibals are scheduled to begin at 2 p.m., to verify the forecast of northerly winds. An unlikely shift to northwesterly winds would be more favorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Turning sunny this afternoon. A little breezy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 82 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2 p.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-13 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 12-18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:25 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 76 82 74 Relative Humidity: 47% 38% 50% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 10 N 12 NW 12 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: N 14 N 16 N 18 Mixing Height: 3800 4500 2500 Ventilation Index: 53 72 45 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A warm-up is expected this weekend, as an upper-level ridge builds over the region. Sunshine and offshore flow will likely push valley highs into the 90s. A very weak upper-level trough is forecast flatten the ridge Monday and Tuesday; turning the low-level flow onshore and possibly creating favorable burning conditions. Temperatures will likely cool back to normal by Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 13 08:35:46 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 13 Aug 2012 11:35:46 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Aug 13 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 13 11:54:00 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 13 Aug 2012 14:54:00 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Aug 13 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 14 08:45:06 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2012 11:45:06 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Aug 14 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 14 11:39:35 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2012 14:39:35 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Aug 14 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 15 08:46:23 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2012 11:46:23 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Wed, Aug 15 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 15 11:48:10 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2012 14:48:10 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Wed, Aug 15 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 16 08:46:56 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2012 11:46:56 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Thu, Aug 16 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 20 08:42:18 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2012 11:42:18 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Aug 20 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 20 11:54:16 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2012 14:54:16 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Aug 20 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 20 11:55:16 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2012 14:55:16 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Aug 20 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 21 08:48:54 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2012 11:48:54 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Aug 21 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 21 11:45:03 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2012 14:45:03 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Aug 21 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 22 08:56:14 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2012 08:56:14 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED AUG 22, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommend agricultural burning be limited to the period from 11:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m., from Salem north. Agricultural burning is not recommended south of Salem. Prep burning is allowed from 11:00 a.m. until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from 11:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry and stable westerly flow aloft continues over the Pacific Northwest. A weak upper-level trough moved across Washington and northern Oregon overnight, bringing a little cooler air mass into the region. In its wake, onshore flow forced marine low clouds into western Washington and the extreme northwestern corner of Oregon this morning, with dry north-northeasterly transport winds keeping skies clear across most of the Willamette Valley. Cooler air aloft and plenty of sunshine will help mixing heights quickly climb to 3000 feet by late this morning. Moderate gradient-stacking this morning should get balanced out by daytime heating, but transport winds are forecast to remain generally northerly, which is unfavorable for open burning. (Salem Airport on Tuesday: High 82?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny skies with breezy north winds. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to 55% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 8-13 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 8-12 mph this morning; N 12-18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:06 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 67 74 79 69 Relative Humidity: 55% 40% 34% 49% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 5 N 10 N 10 NW 10 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: NE 10 N 12 N 14 N 16 Mixing Height: 3000 4000 5000 2500 Ventilation Index: 30 48 70 40 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A stronger upper-level trough is forecast to move onshore late Thursday, with some increasing clouds but likely no precipitation as far south as the Silverton Hills. Transport winds are forecast to become northwesterly, which will likely make for favorable open burning conditions Thursday afternoon. The trough will push east of the region on Friday with transport winds likely turning northerly again. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 22 11:36:46 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2012 11:36:46 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:35 AM PDT WED AUG 22, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommend agricultural burning, from Salem north, be limited to the period from now until 6:00 p.m. Agricultural burning is not recommended south of Salem. Prep burning is allowed from now until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from now until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry and stable westerly flow aloft continues over the Pacific Northwest. In its wake of Tuesday's trough, onshore flow forced marine low clouds into western Washington and the northern Willamette Valley this morning. Patchy low clouds have penetrated inland as far south as the Silverton Hills, with dry north-northeasterly transport winds keeping skies generally clear across the southern Willamette Valley. Cooler air aloft and plenty of sunshine will help mixing heights climb to 5000 feet by late this afternoon. Moderate midday gradient-stacking may get balanced out by afternoon heating, but brisk northerly winds will likely maintain unfavorable open burning conditions. Pibal monitoring will begin at 2:00 p.m., to ensure that no burning opportunities are missed. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy and cooler with breezy north winds. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-14 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 12-18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:06 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 74 79 69 Relative Humidity: 40% 34% 49% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 12 N 12 NW 12 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: N 15 N 15 N 16 Mixing Height: 4000 5000 2500 Ventilation Index: 60 75 40 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A stronger upper-level trough is forecast to increase the onshore flow on Thursday. Morning marine clouds should be more expansive across the Willamette Valley, but no precipitation is expected as far south as the Silverton Hills. Valley temperatures should only climb into the mid 70s with skies becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Northwesterly transport winds and cool air aloft will likely make for favorable open burning conditions. On Friday, the trough will push east of the region. Drying northerly winds will clear skies in the afternoon with temperatures recovering into the upper 70s. An even stronger trough is forecast to dig offshore Saturday with southwesterly flow aloft maintaining dry weather, onshore flow, and near-normal temperatures. Long-range computer models have been inconsistent on their timing of bringing that trough onshore. It may spread showers across the region as soon as Sunday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 23 08:48:37 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 23 Aug 2012 08:48:37 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU AUG 23, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from 11:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level trough will move inland today, across southern British Columbia and northern Washington, strengthening the dry and stable westerly flow aloft over Oregon. The sounding over Salem this morning confirmed that the westerly winds aloft were already increasing. Winds were still generally northerly below 5000 feet. Marine low clouds are a little more expansive this morning across western Oregon with partly to mostly cloudy skies covering the Willamette Valley. Some additional expansion of the marine deck is possible this morning. Valley temperatures should only climb into the mid 70s today with skies becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. The air aloft will be cooling today, in response to the approaching dry upper-level trough. That will make for relatively high mixing heights this afternoon. Unlike yesterday, transport winds are forecast to turn northwesterly this afternoon, which is more favorable for open burning. However, gradient-stacking and high low-level wind speeds may inhibit burning chances today and will need to be closely monitored. (Salem Airport on Wednesday: High 78?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny skies with breezy north winds. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to 60% by noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; becoming NW 7-13 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph this morning; NW 12-18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:04 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 64 70 73 65 Relative Humidity: 63% 48% 40% 56% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 6 N 8 NW 9 NW 12 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: NE 12 N 15 NW 15 NW 20 Mixing Height: 3500 5000 5500 2500 Ventilation Index: 42 75 83 50 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Friday, the upper-level trough will push east of the region. Drying northerly winds will make for unfavorable open burning conditions. Clearing skies and warming aloft will help valley temperatures recover into the upper 70s. A stronger trough is forecast to dig offshore Saturday with southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. Skies should be mostly sunny with valley temperatures climbing back into the 80s. Long-range computer models continue to be inconsistent on their timing of bringing that trough onshore. It may spread showers across the region as soon as Sunday afternoon, or it may weaken offshore and not come inland until early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 23 11:40:06 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 23 Aug 2012 11:40:06 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT THU AUG 23, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from now until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level trough will move inland today, across southern British Columbia and northern Washington, strengthening the dry and stable westerly flow aloft over Oregon. Water vapor imagery indicates the presence of an upper-level cold front extending from north-central Washington to the northwestern tip of Oregon. There is also a band of low clouds associated with this system that has been producing some sprinkles on the north coast. As the weak cold front slowly sags southeastward, ventilation conditions should become more conducive for open burning this afternoon. Mixing heights are forecast to climb to more than 5000 feet. Minor gradient-stacking is improving and may balance out by mid-afternoon. Pibals are scheduled to begin at 1 p.m., to monitor for a possible shift in transport winds from northerly to a more favorable northwesterly direction. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to near 40% this afternoon. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NW 7-13 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph; becoming NW 12-18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. and to near 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:04 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 71 74 65 Relative Humidity: 44% 37% 50% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 8 NW 9 NW 12 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: N 13 NW 15 NW 18 Mixing Height: 5000 6000 2500 Ventilation Index: 65 90 45 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Friday, the upper-level trough will push east of the region. Drying northerly winds will make for unfavorable open burning conditions. Clearing skies and warming aloft will lift valley temperatures into the upper 70s. A fairly strong upper-level trough is forecast to dig offshore Saturday. Southwesterly flow aloft will warm valley highs back into the 80s with mostly sunny skies. Computer models are still inconsistent on the strength and speed of this system, as it progresses eastward and eventually onshore. If it moves inland quickly, then it will likely have enough strength to bring some showers to the Willamette Valley late Sunday. If it stays offshore until Monday or Tuesday, then it may just bring some clouds and cooler temperatures back to the region, along with possible burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 24 08:50:30 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 24 Aug 2012 08:50:30 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI AUG 24, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: ...State Fire Marshal Conditions may be met late this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity (30% or less) and wind (15 mph or greater)... Agricultural burning: (From Salem North): Recommend burning conducted only from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. (South of Salem): Not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A transitory upper-level ridge will move over Oregon today, with a continued dry and stable westerly flow aloft. North to northeasterly winds will make for unfavorable open burning conditions. After a chilly start, sunny skies and warming aloft will help afternoon temperatures climb into the upper 70s. (Salem Airport on Thursday: High 76?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny skies with breezy north winds. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to 50% about 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NE 5-10 mph; becoming N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 15 mph this morning; NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:02 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 63 70 77 68 Relative Humidity: 52% 39% 31% 44% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: NE 10 NE 12 N 14 N 14 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: NE 15 NE 15 NE 20 NE 20 Mixing Height: 3000 3500 4000 1500 Ventilation Index: 45 53 80 30 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A fairly strong upper-level trough is forecast to dig offshore Saturday, turning the flow aloft southwesterly. Sunny skies and continued warming aloft should lift high temperatures back into the 80s. Computer models are still inconsistent on the strength and speed of this system, as it progresses eastward and eventually onshore. If it moves inland quickly, then it will likely have enough strength to bring some showers to the Willamette Valley late Sunday. If it stays offshore until Monday or Tuesday, then it may just bring some clouds and cooler temperatures back to the region, along with possible burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 24 11:47:17 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 24 Aug 2012 11:47:17 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 24, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: ...State Fire Marshal Conditions may be met late this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity (30% or less) and wind (15 mph or greater)... Agricultural burning: (From Salem North): Recommend burning be limited from now until 6 p.m. (South of Salem): Not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A transitory upper-level ridge will move over Oregon today, with a continued dry and stable westerly flow aloft. Brisk north to northeasterly winds will make for unfavorable open burning conditions. Sunny skies and warming aloft will help afternoon temperatures climb into the upper 70s. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, cool, and breezy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 12-17 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 17-22 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3-4000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:02 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 71 76 68 Relative Humidity: 38% 32% 44% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: NE 15 N 15 N 15 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: NE 17 NE 20 NE 20 Mixing Height: 3500 4000 1500 Ventilation Index: 60 80 30 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A fairly strong upper-level trough is forecast to dig southward, from the Gulf of Alaska, to about 600 miles off the Washington coast on Saturday. A warmer southwesterly flow aloft will combine with ample sunshine to lift valley high temperatures back into the 80s. The trough is forecast to slowly move closer to the coast on Sunday, initiating a cooling trend. Longer-range computer models eventually bring the weakening trough onshore early next week. Although moisture is limited, there is a treat of light showers beginning Sunday night. Increasing onshore flow will continue the cooling trend through Wednesday, with possible burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 27 08:28:59 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 27 Aug 2012 11:28:59 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Aug 27 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 27 11:43:54 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 27 Aug 2012 14:43:54 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Aug 27 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 28 08:16:56 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 28 Aug 2012 11:16:56 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Aug 28 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 29 08:34:27 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 29 Aug 2012 11:34:27 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Wed, Aug 29 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 30 08:55:57 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 30 Aug 2012 08:55:57 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU AUG 30, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is slowly dropping southward along the southern British Columbia coastline this morning, with a dry west-southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. Low-level onshore flow is very weak, but areas of marine low clouds have managed to form across the Willamette Valley. Skies are mostly sunny skies over the coastal range and along the coast. The morning sounding over Salem showed northeasterly low-level winds and considerable warming aloft compared to 24 hours ago. However, the air aloft is still cool enough to allow for good afternoon mixing. The approaching upper-level trough will increase the southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon this afternoon. Computer models differ on their forecasts of transport wind directions this afternoon, which will likely be the determining, factor regarding afternoon open field-burning today. It is likely that some shift to a more northwesterly direction will occur later this afternoon. That will be closely monitored with pibals. Gradient-stacking should become favorable for open burning this afternoon. (Salem Airport on Wednesday: High 77?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Areas of morning clouds, then mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (normal is 81). Relative humidity drops to 60% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph; becoming NW 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:50 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 66 73 77 68 Relative Humidity: 63% 45% 36% 49% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 5 N 5 NW 7 NW 10 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: N 10 N 10 NW 12 NW 15 Mixing Height: 2500 4000 5000 1800 Ventilation Index: 25 40 60 27 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough to our north is forecast to swing inland over southern British Columbia on Friday, with a continued dry southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. Once again, areas of morning clouds will yield to mostly sunny skies with seasonal temperatures. However, transport winds are forecast to stay generally northerly, which is not favorable for open field-burning. A continued dry and weak westerly flow aloft is forecast for this weekend and early next week, with areas of morning clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 30 11:40:16 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 30 Aug 2012 11:40:16 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT THU AUG 30, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 5:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough slowly dropping southward along the southern British Columbia coastline, with a dry west-southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. Upper-level moisture is increasing across Washington and northwestern Oregon, which is an indication of rising air aloft moving into the region. Morning marine clouds have mostly cleared from the Willamette Valley, and sunny skies are expected statewide this afternoon. The air aloft has warmed since yesterday but is still cool enough to allow for good afternoon mixing. The approaching upper-level trough should help to provide favorable pressure-gradient-stacking, for open burning, this afternoon. ODF SODAR was still showing NNE transport winds late this morning over the coastal range. Transport winds are forecast to turn northerly, and possibly northwesterly, later this afternoon, which would be more favorable for smoke evacuation. Pibals are scheduled to begin at 1:00 p.m. to monitor the changing transport winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (normal is 81). Relative humidity drops to 60% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph; becoming NW 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 4000 feet by 2 p.m. to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:50 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 73 77 68 Relative Humidity: 45% 36% 49% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 5 NW 7 NW 10 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: N 10 NW 12 NW 15 Mixing Height: 4000 5000 1800 Ventilation Index: 40 60 27 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough to our north is forecast to slowly move across southern British Columbia on Friday, with a continued dry and stable southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. Once again, areas of morning clouds will yield to mostly sunny skies with seasonal temperatures. However, afternoon transport winds are forecast to stay generally northerly, which is not favorable for open field-burning. A continued dry and weak westerly flow aloft is forecast for this weekend and early next week, with areas of morning clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies. Open burning opportunities are possible both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 31 08:56:43 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 31 Aug 2012 08:56:43 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT FRI AUG 31, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is centered over Vancouver Island, British Columbia this morning and will very slowly drift eastward today. Water vapor imagery shows an associated moisture band extending southwestward across most of Washington and western Oregon. However, visible satellite imagery only shows a corresponding very narrow band of mainly high clouds. Only patchy marine clouds formed this morning and should quickly evaporate with daytime heating. The morning sounding over Salem was almost identical to yesterday morning, so 3000-foot mixing heights should be reached about noon again today. Northeasterly transport winds this morning will turn northerly this afternoon. Like yesterday, computer models are struggling with whether or not low-level winds will turn northwesterly later this afternoon. Minor gradient-stacking this morning should balance out this afternoon. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, Aug. 30th: High 80?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79 degrees (normal is 81). Relative humidity drops to 50% by noon and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming N-NW 5-10 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming N-NW 10-15 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to near 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:48 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 65 74 79 68 Relative Humidity: 54% 40% 30% 53% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 5 N 7 NW 7 NW 8 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: N 5 N 10 NW 10 NW 14 Mixing Height: 2500 4000 4500 1800 Ventilation Index: 13 40 45 25 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough to our north will push eastward across southern British Columbia on Saturday with the dry and stable flow aloft turning westerly. Another weak trough will maintain the dry westerly flow aloft Sunday and Monday. Patchy morning clouds should give way to mostly sunny skies with near-normal temperatures. Long-range computer models are showing the development of an upper-level ridge over the region Tuesday-Friday of next week. That would produce above normal temperatures and offshore flow, which is not conducive to open field-burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 31 11:56:48 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 31 Aug 2012 11:56:48 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT FRI AUG 31, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry upper-level trough, slowly drifting eastward across southern British Columbia, pushed a band of high clouds across northwestern Oregon this morning. Water vapor imagery shows the trough as a band of high-level moisture extending southwestward across most of Washington and western Oregon. The back edge of that moisture band had moved onshore as was approaching Marion County late this morning. One effect of the trough moving into the region this morning was to increase the pressure-gradient-stacking across western Oregon. That is not favorable for the prospects of open burning this afternoon. As of late this morning, there was 1.1mb onshore gradient from Newport to Salem and 3.9mb onshore gradient from Newport to Redmond. Some down-mixing of smoke is likely, unless those pressure differences equalize this afternoon. It is also questionable whether or not the trough will be strong enough to turn the transport winds from northerly to northwesterly this afternoon. Pibals are scheduled to begin at 1:00 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79 degrees (normal is 81). Relative humidity drops to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming N-NW 10-15 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:48 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 74 79 68 Relative Humidity: 36% 30% 53% Surface Wind Dir/Speed: N 7 N 7 NW 8 Transport Wind Dir/Speed: N 10 NW 10 NW 14 Mixing Height: 4000 4500 1500 Ventilation Index: 40 45 21 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will progress from southern British Columbia into Alberta, Canada on Saturday. The flow aloft will further dry out and turn more westerly over Oregon. Another weak trough will maintain the dry westerly flow aloft Sunday and Monday. Patchy morning clouds should give way to mostly sunny skies with near-normal temperatures. Long-range computer models are showing the development of an upper-level ridge over the region much of next week. That would produce above normal temperatures and offshore flow, which is not conducive to open burning. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: