From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 3 10:07:18 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2012 13:07:18 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Jul 03 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 3 11:55:06 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2012 11:55:06 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] test Message-ID: This is a test message. Pete Parsons - Meteorologist Oregon Department of Forestry Salem, OR 97310 503-945-7448 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 9 08:29:47 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 09 Jul 2012 11:29:47 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 09 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 9 08:55:26 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 09 Jul 2012 11:55:26 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 09 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 9 11:49:47 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 09 Jul 2012 14:49:47 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 09 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 10 08:41:21 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 10 Jul 2012 11:41:21 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Jul 10 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 10 11:43:12 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 10 Jul 2012 14:43:12 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Jul 10 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 11 08:56:27 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 08:56:27 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Forecsat Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED JUL 11, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A typical summer-time weather pattern has set up over the western United States. A large upper-level ridge is centered over eastern Nevada with a dry and warm southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. Very weak onshore flow, at the surface, allowed for only minimal inland penetration of marine air this morning. Just a few patches of low clouds managed to form in the Willamette valley, mainly in the Portland and Eugene areas. Skies were sunny at mid-morning in mid Willamette Valley, but there continues to be some haze from wildfires east of the Cascades. The morning sounding over Salem showed a couple of degrees of warming aloft, compared to yesterday, so expect surface temperatures to also be a little warmer today. Warm air aloft will suppress mixing again today, with maximum mixing heights likely staying below about 3500 feet this afternoon. Northerly surface and transport winds will be unfavorable for field-burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, hazy, and a little warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88 degrees (normal is 81). Relative humidity drops to 50% by 1 p.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 8-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 6-8 mph this morning; N 10-14 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 3000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 71 81 87 80 Relative Humidity: 57% 41% 34% 44% Surface Wind Direction: 360 360 360 310 Surface Wind Speed: 5 8 8 7 Transport Wind Direction: 010 010 360 330 Transport Wind Speed: 7 10 12 12 Mixing Height: 1800 2800 3200 1500 Ventilation Index: 13 28 38 18 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough is forecast to increase the southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday. That should increase in the onshore flow Thursday afternoon and cool temperatures a few degrees. It may also spread a few clouds across the region, but no precipitation is expected. The weak trough is forecast to remain over Oregon on Friday, with patchy morning clouds giving way to sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 11 11:48:28 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 11:48:28 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED JUL 11, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A typical summer-time weather pattern has set up over the western United States. A large upper-level ridge is centered over southern Nevada with a dry and warm southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. At the surface, a weak thermal trough extends from eastern Washington southward across central Oregon, with weak northerly pressure gradients across western Oregon. Midday satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog banked up along most of the immediate Oregon coastline. Some low clouds also extend a few miles up the Columbia River. Otherwise, skies are generally clear over the remainder of the state, with the exception of haze from area wildfires. Temperatures in the Willamette Valley are running about 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, with late-morning readings already in the mid 70s. Warmer air aloft will allow valley temperatures to climb into the upper 80s by late this afternoon (Salem's high on Tuesday was 83 degrees). Some spots could reach 90. Warm air aloft should keep mixing heights from climbing much above about 3500 feet this afternoon. Northerly surface and transport winds will be unfavorable for field-burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, hazy and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88 degrees (normal is 81). Relative humidity drops to 50% by 1 p.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 7-12 mph; becoming NNW 7-12 mph this evening. Transport winds: N 8-13 mph; becoming NNW 8-13 mph this evening. Mixing height: Rising to a maximum near 3500 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 82 87 80 Relative Humidity: 43% 36% 46% Surface Wind Direction: 360 360 320 Surface Wind Speed: 8 8 7 Transport Wind Direction: 010 360 340 Transport Wind Speed: 10 12 12 Mixing Height: 3000 3500 1500 Ventilation Index: 30 42 18 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough is forecast to increase the southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday. That should cool the air aloft; leading to better daytime mixing. Onshore flow will also increase; with some morning marine clouds likely making it into the Willamette Valley. Look for several degrees of cooling, with highs dropping back to the low to mid 80s. A weak upper-level trough is forecast to remain over Oregon Friday through Sunday. Expect areas of morning clouds with afternoon clearing and near-normal temperatures. There is slight chance of sprinkles or morning drizzle, over the weekend, but no significant precipitation is expected. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 11 15:08:47 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 15:08:47 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Subscription List Message-ID: Dear Silverton Hills Forecast Subscriber: We have recently received multiple requests asking us to either unsubscribe or subscribe folks from/to the Silverton Hills Forecast list. You can use the following link to do either of these things yourself. Please feel free to forward this link as needed. Sincerely, Pete Pete Parsons - Meteorologist Oregon Department of Forestry Salem, OR 97310 503-945-7448 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 11 15:10:39 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 15:10:39 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Subscribing to the Silverton Hills Forecast Message-ID: ...This email includes the link. Sorry for the omission on the previous email... Dear Silverton Hills Forecast Subscriber: We have recently received multiple requests asking us to either unsubscribe or subscribe folks from/to the Silverton Hills Forecast list. You can use the following link to do either of these things yourself. Please feel free to forward this link as needed. http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Sincerely, Pete Pete Parsons - Meteorologist Oregon Department of Forestry Salem, OR 97310 503-945-7448 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 12 08:57:32 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 12 Jul 2012 08:57:32 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU JUL 12, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from noon to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A large upper-level ridge remains centered over eastern Nevada with a dry and warm southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. A weak upper-level trough, just off the Washington coast this morning, has very limited moisture but is increasing the southwesterly flow aloft. Wildfire smoke that has been producing hazy skies the past few days is getting forced east of the region. Increasing onshore flow has brought some marine clouds inland this morning, into the extreme northern and southern sections of the Willamette Valley. A few morning low clouds could form in the Silverton Hills region, but otherwise just look for some high clouds at times today. Surface and transport winds, which have been northerly the past couple of days, will turn northwesterly today and cool temperatures a few degrees. The air mass is still quite warm, but some minor cooling aloft should help afternoon mixing heights climb to near 3500 feet. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny. A little cooler. (Salem's high temperature on Wednesday was 89 degrees) Salem's high temperature today will be near 85 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to 50% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-8 mph this morning; NW 10-14 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 72 80 84 77 Relative Humidity: 53% 41% 36% 45% Surface Wind Direction: 340 320 320 300 Surface Wind Speed: 5 7 10 8 Transport Wind Direction: 320 320 310 300 Transport Wind Speed: 5 10 12 12 Mixing Height: 2000 3200 3500 1500 Ventilation Index: 10 32 42 18 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to stall over Oregon Friday and Saturday. That should maintain enough onshore flow to bring some morning marine clouds into the Willamette Valley, but expect plenty of sunshine in the afternoons with seasonably warm temperatures. A little stronger upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the region late Sunday and Monday. That will strengthen the onshore flow enough to cool temperatures below normal, by Monday, and introduce a slight chance of light showers. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 12 11:53:55 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 12 Jul 2012 11:53:55 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT THU JUL 12, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from noon to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A large upper-level ridge remains centered over the southwestern United States, with a dry and warm southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. A weak upper-level trough is just off the Washington coast. It has very limited moisture but is increasing the southwesterly flow aloft and onshore transport flow across western Oregon. That is improving air quality and pushing residual wildfire smoke east of the region. Increasing onshore flow brought some marine clouds into the extreme northern and southern sections of the Willamette Valley this morning. Low clouds and fog continue to blanket the coastline late this morning, with considerable high clouds stretching across the interior of western Oregon. Onshore Pressure gradients, from Newport to Redmond, have increased to more than 6 millibars late this morning. Corvallis has westerly winds in excess of 10 mph...indicating that a marine push is initiating into the Willamette Valley. Transport winds, which have been northerly the past couple of days, will turn northwesterly today; capping temperatures in the mid 80s (a few degrees cooler than yesterday). The air mass is still quite warm, but minor cooling aloft, combined with daytime heating, should help afternoon mixing heights climb to near 3500 feet. TODAY'S FORECAST: Considerable high clouds with a developing sea breeze this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 7-12 mph. Transport winds: NW 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 80 84 77 Relative Humidity: 41% 36% 45% Surface Wind Direction: 320 320 300 Surface Wind Speed: 8 10 8 Transport Wind Direction: 320 310 300 Transport Wind Speed: 10 12 12 Mixing Height: 3200 3500 1500 Ventilation Index: 32 42 18 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to stall over Oregon Friday and Saturday. That should maintain enough onshore flow to bring some morning marine clouds into the Willamette Valley, but expect plenty of sunshine in the afternoons with seasonably warm temperatures. A little stronger upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the region late Sunday and Monday. That will strengthen the onshore flow enough to cool temperatures below normal, by Monday, and introduce a slight chance of showers. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 13 08:55:47 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2012 08:55:47 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 13, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from noon to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough moved onshore last night, with the center of circulation over western Washington this morning. This system does not have much moisture to work with, but it has strengthened the southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon; forcing some cooler marine air into the Willamette Valley. As a result, coastal low clouds extend well into the coastal range gaps is morning, and into the northern Willamette Valley, as far south as Marion County. Patchy low clouds have also formed in the southern Willamette Valley. Temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, from the surface up through 5000 feet. A quick break-up of the morning low clouds will allow for plenty of sunshine today. That will combine with minor warming aloft to help temperatures recover to slightly above normal. Much like yesterday, expect an evening sea breeze to rapidly lower mixing heights. TODAY'S FORECAST: Areas of brief morning clouds; becoming sunny and seasonably warm. (Salem's high temperature on Thursday was 84 degrees) Salem's high temperature today will be near 84 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to 50% around noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNW 5-10 mph; becoming WNW 7-12 mph this evening. Transport winds: NNW 6-12 mph; becoming WNW 10-14 mph this evening. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet by late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 70 78 83 75 Relative Humidity: 55% 42% 33% 45% Surface Wind Direction: 350 350 340 300 Surface Wind Speed: 5 7 6 8 Transport Wind Direction: 350 340 330 300 Transport Wind Speed: 6 8 10 12 Mixing Height: 2300 3000 3500 1500 Ventilation Index: 14 24 35 18 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to stall over Oregon Saturday and Sunday. That should maintain enough onshore flow to bring some morning marine clouds into the Willamette Valley, but expect plenty of sunshine in the afternoons with seasonably warm temperatures. A little stronger upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the region late Sunday and Monday. That will strengthen the onshore flow; cooling temperatures to below normal, and introducing a slight chance of light showers. The trough is forecast to move over southwestern Oregon on Tuesday. A southerly flow aloft will maintain a chance of showers and bring a slight chance of thunderstorms. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 13 11:47:46 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2012 11:47:46 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 13, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from noon to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A very weak upper-level trough remains centered over western Washington, with a dry southwesterly flow aloft over western Oregon. Marine low clouds continue to blanket most of western Washington and extend southward, to near Cape Blanco, along the Oregon coast. The low clouds that managed to form in the northern Willamette Valley earlier this morning have evaporated, except for along the Columbia River. Midday temperatures are running a couple of degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, in the northern Willamette Valley, but ample sunshine should help readings recover to about where they were Thursday afternoon. Also like yesterday, afternoon mixing heights should climb into the 3-4000 foot range. Pressure gradients are weaker then yesterday, so NNW winds will likely remain less than 10 mph. A cooling sea breeze will quickly lower evening mixing heights. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and seasonably warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84 degrees (normal is 82). Relative humidity drops to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNW 5-10 mph; becoming WNW 7-12 mph this evening. Transport winds: NNW 6-12 mph; becoming WNW 8-14 mph this evening. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet by late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 78 83 75 Relative Humidity: 42% 33% 45% Surface Wind Direction: 350 340 300 Surface Wind Speed: 7 6 8 Transport Wind Direction: 340 330 300 Transport Wind Speed: 8 10 12 Mixing Height: 3000 3500 1500 Ventilation Index: 24 35 18 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to slowly drop southward, to over northwestern Oregon, on Saturday. That should maintain enough onshore flow to bring back morning marine clouds into the Willamette Valley. Expect partly cloudy skies, by the afternoon, with seasonably warm temperatures. However, some cooling aloft will combine with daytime heating to promote a slight chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. A northwesterly flow aloft should stabilize the air mass Saturday night and Sunday morning, but another weak upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the region late Sunday and Monday. That will strengthen the onshore flow, cool temperatures to slightly below normal, and maintain at least a chance of light showers or morning drizzle. The trough is forecast to weaken and move over southwestern Oregon by Tuesday. That will turn the flow aloft more southerly and reintroduce a slight chance of thunderstorms. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 16 08:40:11 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 16 Jul 2012 11:40:11 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 16 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 16 08:46:10 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 16 Jul 2012 11:46:10 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 16 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 16 09:29:05 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 16 Jul 2012 12:29:05 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 16 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 16 11:57:38 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 16 Jul 2012 14:57:38 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 16 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 17 08:28:39 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 17 Jul 2012 11:28:39 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Jul 17 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 17 11:39:13 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 17 Jul 2012 14:39:13 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Jul 17 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 18 08:31:19 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 18 Jul 2012 11:31:19 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Wed, Jul 18 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 18 13:41:10 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 18 Jul 2012 16:41:10 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Wed, Jul 18 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 19 08:57:37 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 19 Jul 2012 08:57:37 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT THU JUL 19, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from noon to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough remains parked off the southern Oregon coast with a moist southeasterly flow aloft over Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed a warm layer of air aloft, between 4000 and 8000 feet, which is keeping the lower levels of the air mass stable over the Willamette Valley. However, as the upper-level trough slowly begins to lift northeastward this afternoon, cooling aloft will begin to destabilize the air mass. That may lead to some sunbreaks but will also increase the chance of showers. There is a slight chance that the air mass will destabilize enough for thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, but the odds of that are much greater over the Cascades. (Salem Airport on Wednesday: High temperature was 73 degrees; no rainfall) TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy and muggy this morning. Some sunbreaks possible this afternoon with a chance of showers. Slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Rainfall totals likely less than one-tenth of an inch. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to 50% around 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light; becoming WNW 5-10 mph this afternoon and evening. Transport winds: Light; becoming W 6-12 mph this afternoon but shearing to southeasterly at the top of the mixing layer. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet around 2 p.m. and 4500 feet at 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:52 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 66 73 77 72 Relative Humidity: 73% 58% 50% 66% Surface Wind Direction: Var 300 290 270 Surface Wind Speed: 3 5 6 7 Transport Wind Direction: Var 300 270 260 Transport Wind Speed: 3 6 8 8 Mixing Height: 1800 3500 4500 1800 Ventilation Index: 5 21 36 14 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The pesky upper-level trough will finally lift northeastward across Oregon on Friday, with some showers likely in the morning and a risk of a thunderstorm. A drier southwesterly flow aloft should begin to clear skies Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal. Another upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, from the Gulf of Alaska, over the weekend, but it should remain northwest of the state. That will return the region to a more typical summer-time pattern of morning clouds with afternoon clearing. However, temperatures will likely remain slightly below normal. There is a slight chance of showers by Monday, as the trough swings onshore across Washington and extreme northern Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 19 11:50:35 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 19 Jul 2012 11:50:35 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT THU JUL 19, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from noon to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough remains parked off the southern Oregon coast with a moist southeasterly flow aloft over Oregon. The low-level air mass is still stable over the Willamette Valley, but that will change later this afternoon. The upper-level trough is forecast to slowly move northeastward, which will begin to cool the air mass aloft. That will combine with daytime heating to destabilize the air mass, especially if we get many sunbreaks. Look for showers to develop late this afternoon and evening. There is also a slight chance that southeasterly flow aloft will direct thunderstorms, which form over the Cascades this afternoon, into the Willamette Valley this evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partial clearing this afternoon with an increasing chance of showers. Slight chance of late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Showers are likely overnight with a continued slight chance of thundershowers. Rainfall totals mostly near one-tenth of an inch, but locally heavier amounts are possible. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to near 50% around 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light; Becoming WNW 5-10 mph late this afternoon and evening. Transport winds: Light; Becoming W 6-12 mph late this afternoon but shearing to southeasterly at the top of the mixing layer. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet around 2 p.m. and 4500 feet at 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:52 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 76 79 72 Relative Humidity: 52% 47% 66% Surface Wind Direction: 340 280 270 Surface Wind Speed: 3 6 7 Transport Wind Direction: 320 270 270 Transport Wind Speed: 3 8 8 Mixing Height: 3500 4500 1800 Ventilation Index: 11 36 14 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The slow-moving upper-level trough will finally lift northeastward, across Oregon, on Friday. Showers are likely in the morning, with a continued risk of a thundershower. The trough will progress into eastern Washington Friday afternoon, with a drier southwesterly flow aloft bringing some clearing. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal. Another upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, from the Gulf of Alaska to just off the Washington coast, over the weekend. That will maintain strong onshore flow with morning clouds and afternoon clearing. Temperatures should remain slightly below normal. The trough is forecast to move across Washington and extreme northern Oregon on Monday. That will further strengthen the onshore flow and introduce a slight chance of light showers. Temperatures will cool to as much as 10 degrees below normal. A return to a more typical summer-time pattern is forecast for Tuesday through Friday of next week. Look for morning clouds and afternoon sunshine, with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 20 08:54:42 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 20 Jul 2012 08:54:42 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 20, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The slow-moving upper-level trough that has been parked off the southern Oregon coast for most of this week is weakening and finally lifting northeastward. Bands of showers and thundershowers are rotating around the center of circulation, which is no longer well-defined this morning and appears to be over northwestern Oregon. Most of the shower activity has pushed north, into Washington, but radar is still showing a few light showers over the Cascade foothills east of Salem. The upper-level trough will push into eastern Washington this afternoon, with a drier west-southwesterly flow aloft bringing some clearing. Cool air aloft and onshore transport winds will hold afternoon temperatures below average. (Salem Airport's high temperature on Thursday: 84 degrees; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy and muggy with a chance of light showers this morning. There is still a risk of a thundershower. Becoming partly sunny this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to 50% around 3 p.m. Surface winds: SSW 5-10 mph; becoming W 5-10 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 8-12 mph; becoming WSW 8-12 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet around 2 p.m. and 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:51 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 67 72 77 70 Relative Humidity: 68% 55% 45% 57% Surface Wind Direction: 200 210 270 290 Surface Wind Speed: 8 8 7 6 Transport Wind Direction: 200 220 250 290 Transport Wind Speed: 10 12 10 10 Mixing Height: 2500 3500 4500 2300 Ventilation Index: 25 42 45 23 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Another upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, from the Gulf of Alaska to just off the Washington coast, over the weekend. That will maintain the onshore flow with morning clouds and afternoon clearing. Temperatures should be slightly below normal. The trough is forecast to move across Washington and extreme northern Oregon on Monday, introducing a slight chance of light showers and cooling temperatures to as much as 10 degrees below normal. A return to a more typical summer-time pattern is forecast for Tuesday through Friday of next week. Look for morning clouds and afternoon sunshine, with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 20 11:35:59 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 20 Jul 2012 11:35:59 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:35 AM PDT FRI JUL 20, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A slow-moving upper-level trough pushed northeastward, across western Oregon, early this morning and was advancing into southern Washington at midday. Bands of showers and thundershowers are continuing to rotate around mainly the north side of circulation center, across western Washington. A few light showers are still evident on radar, over the northern Oregon Cascades and the northern Willamette Valley, but the treat of thundershowers is over. Moist onshore flow is maintaining generally cloudy skies and cool temperatures across most of western Oregon. The upper-level trough is forecast to push northeastward...into eastern Washington by late this afternoon. A drier west-southwesterly flow aloft should bring at least partial clearing to the Willamette Valley late this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain well below average. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy and cool, with a chance of a lingering light shower, through early this afternoon. Slowly clearing skies in the late-afternoon and evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75 degrees (normal is 83). Relative humidity drops to 50% around 5 p.m. Surface winds: SSW 5-10 mph; becoming W 5-10 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 8-12 mph; becoming WSW 8-12 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet around 2 p.m. and 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:51 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 71 74 70 Relative Humidity: 57% 50% 57% Surface Wind Direction: 210 270 290 Surface Wind Speed: 8 8 6 Transport Wind Direction: 220 250 280 Transport Wind Speed: 12 10 10 Mixing Height: 3500 4500 2300 Ventilation Index: 42 45 23 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Another upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, from the Gulf of Alaska to just off the Washington coast, over the weekend. That will maintain an onshore flow pattern with morning clouds and afternoon clearing. Temperatures should recover close to normal on Saturday and then drop back a few degrees on Sunday. The trough is forecast to move across Washington and extreme northern Oregon on Monday, introducing a slight chance of light showers and cooling temperatures to as much as 10 degrees below normal. A return to a more typical summer-time pattern is forecast for Tuesday through Friday of next week. Look for morning clouds and afternoon sunshine, with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 23 08:50:58 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 23 Jul 2012 11:50:58 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 23 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 23 13:59:05 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 23 Jul 2012 16:59:05 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 23 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 24 08:38:35 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 24 Jul 2012 11:38:35 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Jul 24 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 24 11:35:28 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 24 Jul 2012 14:35:28 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Jul 24 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 25 08:58:56 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 25 Jul 2012 08:58:56 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED JUL 25, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry, warm and stable southwesterly flow aloft is continuing over Oregon today. The Salem sounding this morning showed very little change in the air mass, above 3000 feet, compared to 24 hours ago. However, the air mass below 3000 feet has undergone considerable warming and drying. Marine low clouds blanket the coast and many coastal range gaps again this morning. Unlike yesterday, skies are mostly sunny in the Willamette Valley. That will allow temperatures to warm much more quickly today, with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Even with much warmer surface temperatures today, warm air aloft should cap maximum mixing heights near 4000 feet this afternoon. Pressure gradients are very weakly onshore this morning, but a typical summer-time sea breeze should increase the onshore flow slightly this afternoon. Pressure-gradient stacking will likely be favorable for sustaining lifting of air mass today. Transport wind directions will likely be the main limiting factor for open field-burning this afternoon, possibly maintaining a significant northerly component. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday: High temperature 81 degrees; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to 60% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light north; becoming NNW 3-7 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Light north; becoming NNW 4-8 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 71 80 87 78 Relative Humidity: 61% 46% 35% 47% Surface Wind Direction: 360 350 340 300 Surface Wind Speed: 3 3 7 6 Transport Wind Direction: 360 340 330 310 Transport Wind Speed: 4 4 8 8 Mixing Height: 1800 3200 4000 1800 Ventilation Index: 7 13 32 14 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A very weak upper-level trough will slightly increase the southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday. Sunny and warm weather is expected to continue, with increasing onshore flow, in the afternoon. Transport wind directions are forecast to become more westerly, which would be favorable for open field-burning. Marine clouds will likely penetrate into the Willamette Valley Friday morning with areas of light drizzle possible. Even with afternoon sunshine, temperatures should cool back to slightly below normal. Pressure gradient-stacking could be unfavorable for open field-burning. Little change in the weather pattern is expected through this weekend, with morning clouds and afternoon sunshine. Temperatures should be near normal. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 25 11:40:01 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 25 Jul 2012 11:40:01 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT WED JUL 25, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry, warm and stable southwesterly flow aloft is continuing over Oregon. Marine low clouds continued to blanket the coast many of the coastal range gaps at midday. However, onshore flow is weak across the interior of western Oregon (2.8 mb from Newport to Redmond), with mostly clear across the Willamette Valley. As a result, valley temperatures are running about 7-12 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. Even with much warmer surface temperatures today, warm air aloft should cap maximum mixing heights at or below 4500 feet this afternoon. At the surface, a broad thermal trough extends from central Washington, through central Oregon, into southwestern Oregon. Weak onshore pressure gradients are favorably "stacked" to keep smoke elevated. Light northerly surface and transport winds will need to be monitored, because the afternoon sea breeze may turn them enough onshore to allow for open burning. Pibals are scheduled to begin at 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light north; becoming NNW 3-7 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Light north; becoming NNW 4-8 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 80 87 78 Relative Humidity: 46% 35% 47% Surface Wind Direction: 350 340 300 Surface Wind Speed: 3 7 6 Transport Wind Direction: 340 330 310 Transport Wind Speed: 4 8 8 Mixing Height: 3500 4500 1800 Ventilation Index: 14 36 14 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Sunny and warm weather is expected to continue on Thursday, with a very weak upper-level trough forecast to promote a stronger afternoon sea breeze. That increases the chance that transport winds will turn enough onshore for afternoon field-burning. On Friday, some morning marine clouds will likely penetrate into the Willamette Valley. The deeper marine layer will cool temperatures back to below normal, even with afternoon sunshine. Pressure-gradient-stacking and transport wind directions may become unfavorable for open field-burning, but that will depend on the timing and extent of the influx of marine air. Little change in the dry southwesterly flow aloft is expected through much of next week. Look for varying degrees of onshore flow and morning clouds, with plenty of afternoon sunshine. Temperatures should be near normal. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 26 08:55:48 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 26 Jul 2012 08:55:48 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT THU JUL 26, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry, warm and stable southwesterly flow aloft is continuing over Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed very little change from Wednesday morning. However, the marine layer along the coast has deepened, and marine low clouds were able to penetrate into the northern and southern Willamette Valley this morning. In contrast, most of Marion County and northern Linn County had clear skies at mid-morning. Some low clouds could briefly form in the Silverton Hills region, but otherwise expect another sunny and warm day. Temperatures are likely to be a couple of degrees cooler today, with highs expected to reach the mid 80s this afternoon. A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to initiate a significant afternoon sea breeze today, which should turn transport winds onshore and create favorable smoke dispersal conditions for field-burning. The air aloft is still quite warm, so mixing heights will not reach 3000 feet until about 2 p.m. and will likely top out between 4000 and 4500 feet this afternoon. Daytime heating should be sufficient to overcome minor pressure-gradient stacking this morning. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 25th: High 88? F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Patchy brief morning clouds. Becoming sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to 60% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light NW; becoming NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Light NW; becoming WNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 71 80 85 74 Relative Humidity: 59% 46% 37% 54% Surface Wind Direction: 340 290 300 280 Surface Wind Speed: 3 4 8 8 Transport Wind Direction: 330 270 290 280 Transport Wind Speed: 3 6 8 10 Mixing Height: 1800 3200 4300 1800 Ventilation Index: 5 19 34 18 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Friday, morning marine clouds will likely penetrate across the entire Willamette Valley and last through much of the morning. The deeper marine layer will cool temperatures back to below normal, even with afternoon sunshine. Pressure-gradient-stacking and transport wind directions may become unfavorable for open field-burning, but that will depend on the timing and extent of the influx of marine air. Little change in the generally dry and stable southwesterly flow aloft is expected through much of next week. Look for varying degrees of onshore flow, morning clouds, and afternoon sunshine. There is also a chance that the marine layer will be thick enough for areas of drizzle some mornings. Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 26 11:41:54 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 26 Jul 2012 11:41:54 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT THU JUL 26, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. Propane flaming is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry, warm and stable southwesterly flow aloft is continuing over Oregon. At the surface, a thermal trough extends from central Washington, through central Oregon, into southwestern Oregon. Increased onshore flow forced marine low clouds into the northern and southern Willamette Valley this morning, but only patchy clouds formed in Marion County and extreme northern Linn County. Low clouds were slowly clearing from the north and south valley late this morning, with sunny skies in the Silverton Hills region. Temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, in the central Willamette Valley, with highs expected to reach the mid 80s this afternoon. A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to initiate a significant afternoon sea breeze today, which should turn transport winds westerly and create favorable smoke dispersal conditions for field-burning. Transport winds will be closely monitored, via pibals, beginning at 1 p.m. Minor gradient-stacking late this morning (2.0 mb onshore Newport-to-Salem and 2.3 mb onshore Salem-to-Redmond) should reverse early this afternoon. Mixing heights will likely rise above 3000 feet by 2 p.m., top out near 4500 feet in the late-afternoon, and then rapidly lower in the early evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to around 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light NW; becoming WNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Light NW; becoming W 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 79 84 74 Relative Humidity: 47% 39% 54% Surface Wind Direction: 290 290 280 Surface Wind Speed: 4 8 8 Transport Wind Direction: 270 270 280 Transport Wind Speed: 6 8 10 Mixing Height: 3200 4500 1800 Ventilation Index: 19 36 18 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Morning marine clouds will likely penetrate across the entire Willamette Valley Friday morning. The deeper marine layer will cool temperatures back to below normal, even with afternoon sunshine. Pressure-gradient-stacking and transport winds will likely be unfavorable for open field-burning. Little change in the generally dry and stable southwesterly flow aloft is expected through much of next week. Look for varying degrees of onshore flow, morning clouds, and afternoon sunshine. That may present additional burning opportunities. The marine layer could deepen enough for areas of morning drizzle, but that should be the extent of any precipitation. Onshore flow should hold temperatures at near to slightly below normal. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 27 08:47:13 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 27 Jul 2012 08:47:13 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 27, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 3 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong "marine push" brought a surge of cool and moist air into the Willamette Valley overnight. This morning's sounding over Salem showed significant cooling, compared to Thursday morning, below 6000 feet, with saturated air extending up to about 4000 feet. As a result, extensive low clouds cover the valley this morning, with Pilot reports confirming that the low-cloud deck extends upward to around 4200 feet. Continued deepening of the marine layer could produce local areas of light drizzle this morning. Cloudy skies will likely persist into at least the early afternoon, with cooler surface temperatures suppressing mixing heights. Even with some afternoon clearing, temperatures will be about 10 degrees below average today. As is usually the case after a "marine push," there is significant pressure-gradient-stacking this morning, which is forecast to persist this afternoon. That is unfavorable for open burning. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 26th: High 85?F; Rainfall .00") TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy with a chance of light drizzle this morning. Becoming partly sunny later this afternoon. Much cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to 60% by 2 p.m. and to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 3-6 mph; becoming NNW 4-8 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5; becoming NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:44 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 11 a.m. 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 64 69 74 67 Relative Humidity: 73% 63% 54% 68% Surface Wind Direction: 200 320 340 350 Surface Wind Speed: 5 4 5 5 Transport Wind Direction: 240 320 340 350 Transport Wind Speed: 5 5 7 7 Mixing Height: 2500 2800 3500 1800 Ventilation Index: 13 14 25 13 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change in the overall weather pattern is forecast through next week, with a continued generally dry and stable southwesterly flow aloft. Varying degrees of onshore flow, morning clouds, and afternoon sunshine could present additional burning opportunities. The marine layer could deepen enough for areas of morning drizzle, especially late next week, but that should be the extent of any precipitation. Onshore flow should hold temperatures to near or slightly below normal. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 27 11:30:21 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 27 Jul 2012 11:30:21 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT FRI JUL 27, 2012 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 3 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level disturbance, cutting across western Washington this morning, further deepened the cool and moist marine layer that surged into the Willamette Valley overnight. Cloudy skies will likely persist until at least the mid-afternoon, with cool surface temperatures suppressing mixing heights. Even with some late-day clearing, high temperatures will be about 10 degrees below average. Pressure gradient stacking became even more pronounced late this morning and will likely persist through the afternoon. Pibals will only be done after the low clouds break up, and if there is significant improvement in the pressure gradient stacking (unlikely). TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy and much cooler. Partial clearing late this afternoon and evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74 degrees (normal is 84). Relative humidity drops to 60% by 3 p.m. and to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 3-6 mph; becoming NW 4-8 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5; becoming NW 5-12 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:44 p.m. THREE-HOURLY DATA: 2 p.m. 5 p.m. 8 p.m. Temperature: 68 73 66 Relative Humidity: 61% 52% 68% Surface Wind Direction: 180 340 310 Surface Wind Speed: 5 5 8 Transport Wind Direction: 240 340 310 Transport Wind Speed: 5 7 10 Mixing Height: 2800 3500 1800 Ventilation Index: 14 25 18 EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A dry and stable southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through next week. Varying degrees of onshore flow, morning clouds, and afternoon sunshine could present additional burning opportunities. Onshore flow should hold temperatures to near or slightly below normal. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 30 08:47:47 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 30 Jul 2012 11:47:47 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 30 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 30 11:47:56 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 30 Jul 2012 14:47:56 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Mon, Jul 30 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 31 08:38:18 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2012 11:38:18 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Jul 31 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 31 11:52:41 2012 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2012 14:52:41 -0400 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast for Silverton Hills - Tue, Jul 31 2012 Message-ID: An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: