From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 8 08:39:43 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 8 Jul 2013 08:39:43 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 8, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is allowed from 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak upper level trough pushed into the state overnight increasing onshore flow and bringing marine low clouds into the northern Willamette Valley this morning. Currently, gradient stacking is strongest to the east of Salem with 1.7 mb onshore flow from Newport to Salem and 2.7 mb onshore flow from Salem to Redmond. The weak upper level trough will weaken further today and move eastward. Expect clouds to clear by late morning with temperatures warming into the low 80s this afternoon. Flat ridge will build into the region later today and tonight. Overall, expect little change from yesterday with mostly sunny skies and northerly flow, turning a little more NNW during the afternoon and evening. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 7th: High 83?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 77) TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning low clouds with clearing by late morning. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83. Relative humidity drops to 50% by 12 p.m. Minimum relative humidity 31%. Surface winds: N to NNW at 5-8 mph throughout the day. Transport winds: N to NNW at 5-8 mph throughout the day. Maximum mixing height: Rising to 3000 ft around 11:00 a.m. with maximum at 4800 ft by 5:00 p.m. Sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge will remain over the region but will start moving eastward on Tuesday. Expect clear skies and slightly warmer temperatures. Wind flow will be light northerly in the morning to early afternoon then turn NW to NNW at 7-12 mph during the afternoon. Mixing heights will be fair to good by the afternoon. For Wednesday another upper level trough will advance toward the state bringing a marine push into the Willamette Valley during the afternoon. Much cooler marine air will invade the region Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough parks itself over the state. Expect marine low clouds to last much of the day. High temperatures will likely only reach the low 70s. Wind flow will be mostly NW'erly during the late morning to afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 8 11:48:52 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 8 Jul 2013 11:48:52 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 8, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is allowed from 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak upper level trough is moving to the east this morning while the heating of the later morning hours is burning off the remains of the early morning low clouds. Current gradient stacking is strongest to the east of Salem with 2.0 mb onshore flow from Newport to Salem and 2.7 mb onshore flow from Salem to Redmond. The weak upper level trough will weaken further today and move eastward. Expect clouds to clear by late morning with temperatures warming into the low 80s this afternoon. Flat ridge will build into the region later today and tonight. Overall, expect little change from yesterday with mostly sunny skies and northerly flow, turning a little more NNW during the afternoon and evening. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 7th: High 83?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 77) TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning low clouds with clearing by late morning. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83. Relative humidity drops to 50% near 12 p.m. Minimum relative humidity 31%. Surface winds: N to NNW at 5-8 mph throughout the day. Transport winds: N to NNW at 5-8 mph throughout the day. Maximum mixing height: Rising to 3000 ft around 11:00 a.m. with maximum at 4800 ft by 5:00 p.m. Sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge will remain over the region but will start moving eastward on Tuesday. Expect clear skies and slightly warmer temperatures. Wind flow will be light northerly in the morning to early afternoon then turn NW to NNW at 7-12 mph during the afternoon. Mixing heights will be fair to good by the afternoon. For Wednesday another upper level trough will advance toward the state bringing a marine push into the Willamette Valley during the afternoon. Much cooler marine air will invade the region Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough parks itself over the state. Expect marine low clouds to last much of the day. High temperatures will likely only reach the low 70s. Wind flow will be mostly NW'erly during the late morning to afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 9 08:47:22 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 9 Jul 2013 08:47:22 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT TUE JUL 9, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning from noon until 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge remains centered over the southwestern US with a warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. The air aloft over western Oregon has warmed several degrees over the past 24 hours, and onshore flow has decreased. Satellite imagery shows marine clouds confined mostly to west of the coast range, so a full day of sunshine will help valley temperatures climb to near 90 degrees this afternoon. Transport winds should remain mostly northerly. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90 degrees (normal is 81). Relative humidity: Drops below 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-8 mph this morning; NNW 7-15 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 4000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 8th: High 85?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An approaching upper-level trough will increase the southwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday. Increasing onshore flow may bring some morning marine clouds into the Willamette Valley. Otherwise, expect sunshine but with cooler temperatures. Transport winds are forecast to turn northwesterly in the afternoon with cooling aloft improving mixing. A weak upper-level trough will move over Oregon Thursday and Friday. No showers are expected, but strong onshore flow should blanket the Willamette Valley with morning low clouds. Temperatures will cool back into the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies in the afternoons. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 9 11:53:36 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 9 Jul 2013 11:53:36 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT TUE JUL 9, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning from noon until 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Late-morning visible satellite imagery shows marine clouds banked up along the immediate Oregon coast with clear skies across the remainder of the state. With weaker onshore flow today, temperatures in the Willamette Valley are running about 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Highs this afternoon should top out near 90 degrees. Transport winds will be mostly northerly. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90 degrees (average is 81). Relative humidity: Drops to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-8 mph; becoming NNW 7-15 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming N 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 4000 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An approaching upper-level trough will increase the southwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday. Increasing onshore flow may bring some morning marine clouds into the Willamette Valley. Otherwise, expect sunshine but with cooler temperatures. Transport winds are forecast to turn northwesterly in the afternoon with cooling aloft improving mixing. A weak upper-level trough will move over Oregon Thursday and Friday. No showers are expected, but strong onshore flow should blanket the Willamette Valley with morning low clouds. Some morning drizzle is possible, especially on Thursday, with partly cloudy skies in the afternoons. High temperatures will cool back into the mid 70s. Drying and warming is expect this weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 10 08:52:28 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Jul 2013 08:52:28 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT WED JUL 10, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning from 11:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge remains centered over the southwestern US with dry southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. Upstream troughing aloft over western Oregon and the eastern Pacific has increased over the past 24 hours, but low-level onshore flow is weak and disorganized at this point with some increased coastal low-cloud intrusions in the lower elevations. Marine clouds are confined mostly to west of the coastal range, but some cooling aloft over western Oregon will limit valley maximum temperatures to around 80 degrees this afternoon. Transport winds should remain mostly northerly, with a weak westerly component developing late in the day. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be in the low 80s (average is 80). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60% by noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning through the afternoon; NNW 7-15 mph this evening. Transport winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning with a bit of an increase this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 9th: High 92?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The approaching upper-level trough will continue to strengthen and thus increase the southwesterly flow aloft over the area on Thursday, with a wave within the trough progressing eastward into Montana and Idaho. Increasing onshore flow should bring some marine clouds into the Willamette Valley particularly early in the day and then again in the evening. Otherwise, expect sunshine and continued cooler temperatures with maximums in the mid-70s. Transport winds are forecast to turn northwesterly late in the day with cooling aloft improving mixing. Upper-level troughing will persist just west of Oregon Friday and Saturday, with good onshore flow aloft and during the late afternoons/nighttime at low-levels. No showers are expected, but strong onshore flow should blanket the Willamette Valley with morning low clouds. Partly cloudy conditions are likely in the afternoons. Maximum temperatures will continue in the mid 70s to around 80. Some warming on Sunday is expected as the western Rockies upper ridge is expected to begin to retrograde westward. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 10 11:38:58 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Jul 2013 11:38:58 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT WED JUL 10, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning from now until 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge remains centered over the southwestern US with dry southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. Upstream troughing aloft over western Oregon and the eastern Pacific has increased, but low-level onshore flow is weak and disorganized at this point with some increased coastal low-cloud intrusions in the lower elevations. Marine clouds are confined to a few isolated areas west of the coastal range, but some cooling aloft over western Oregon will limit valley maximum temperatures to around 80 degrees this afternoon. Transport winds should remain mostly northerly, with a weak westerly component developing late in the day. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be in the low 80s (average is 80). Relative humidity: Will drop below 50% by early afternoon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph through the afternoon; NNW 7-12 mph this evening. Transport winds: NNE 5-10 mph with a bit of an increase this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 9th: High 92?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The approaching upper-level trough will continue to strengthen and thus increase the southwesterly flow aloft over the area on Thursday, with a wave within the trough progressing eastward into Montana and Idaho. Increasing onshore flow should bring some marine clouds into the Willamette Valley particularly early in the day and then again in the evening. Otherwise, expect sunshine and continued cooler temperatures with maximums in the mid-70s. Transport winds are forecast to turn northwesterly late in the day with cooling aloft improving mixing. Upper-level troughing will persist just west of Oregon Friday and Saturday, with good onshore flow aloft and during the late afternoons/nighttime at low-levels. No showers are expected, but onshore flow should affect the Willamette Valley with morning low clouds. Partly cloudy conditions are likely in the afternoons. Maximum temperatures will continue in the mid 70s to around 80. Some low-level warming is probable on Sunday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 11 08:29:07 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Jul 2013 08:29:07 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] test msg Message-ID: Plz ignore...thx -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 11 08:52:31 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Jul 2013 08:52:31 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT THURS. JUL 11, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning from 10:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is allowed 10:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m.. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A moderately strong upper trough is centered along the Pacific coastline this morning, with generally dry southwesterly flow aloft over western Oregon. Some energy within the trough is trying to push eastward. Low-level onshore flow continues to be weak and disorganized, however. Some increased coastal low-cloud intrusions are over the lower elevations over the extreme northwestern corner of Oregon and portions of the Valley. The upper trough remains in place for the next several days, with some waves of energy skirting western Oregon as they periodically progress eastward. Cooling aloft over western Oregon will limit valley maximum temperatures to around 80 degrees this afternoon. Transport winds should remain mostly northerly. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be around 80. Relative humidity: Will drop below 60% by 11:00 a.m. and to 40-45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning through the afternoon; N 7-15 mph this evening. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 10th: High 86?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough just to the west should persist through the weekend, with a wave within the trough progressing eastward into Montana and Idaho late on Friday. Increasing onshore flow should bring more marine clouds into the Willamette Valley particularly early in the day and then again in the evening on Friday. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy conditions and continued cooler temperatures with maximums in the mid- and upper-70s. Transport winds are forecast to turn northwesterly late in the day Saturday. Upper-level troughing will persist just west of Oregon Sunday. No showers are expected, but the threat of morning low clouds over the Willamette Valley persists. Mostly sunny conditions are likely in the afternoon. Maximum temperatures will likely warm into the 80s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 11 11:52:46 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Jul 2013 11:52:46 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT THURS. JUL 11, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning from now until 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is allowed from now until 3:00 p.m. limited to 50 acres. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A moderately strong upper trough is centered along the Pacific coastline today, with generally dry west-southwesterly flow aloft over western Oregon. Some energy within the trough is trying to push eastward. Low-level northerly to northeasterly flow is persisting this morning behind a portion of the trough energy. Some increased coastal low-cloud intrusions are present over the lower elevations over the extreme northwestern corner of Oregon and portions of the Valley. The upper trough remains in place for the next several days, with some waves of energy skirting western Oregon as they periodically progress east-northeastward. Cooling aloft over western Oregon will limit valley maximum temperatures to around 80 degrees this afternoon. Transport winds should remain mostly northerly. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be around 80. Relative humidity: Will drop to 35-40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-15 mph this morning through the afternoon; N 8-15 mph this evening. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 10th: High 86?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 55) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough just to the west should persist through the weekend, with a wave within the trough progressing eastward into Idaho and Montana late on Friday. Increasing onshore flow should bring more marine clouds into the Willamette Valley particularly early in the day and then again in the evening on Friday. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy conditions and continued cooler temperatures with maximums in the mid- and upper-70s. A late-day onshore push is also likely on Saturday. Upper-level troughing will persist just west of Oregon Sunday. No showers are expected, but the threat of morning low clouds over the Willamette Valley persists. Mostly sunny conditions are likely in the afternoon. Maximum temperatures will likely warm into the 80s. Persistent conditions are likely on Monday, with some likely continued warming in the low levels. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 12 08:39:53 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2013 08:39:53 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT FRI. JUL 12, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning from 10:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is allowed 10:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m. with a 50-acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A moderately strong upper trough continues to be entrenched along the Pacific coastline this morning, with generally dry southwesterly flow aloft over western Oregon. Some energy within the trough will push eastward later today and increase our cloud cover as well as assist an onshore eastward surge late this afternoon and evening. Some coastal low-cloud intrusions are currently over the lower elevations over the extreme northwestern corner of Oregon, with deeper clouds getting close to the coastline and moving eastward. The upper trough remains in place for the next several days, with more weak waves of energy skirting western Oregon as they periodically progress eastward. Cloud cover over western Oregon and the surge will limit valley maximum temperatures to the middle to upper 70s this afternoon. Transport winds should remain mostly northerly with some increase in NW flow late this afternoon and evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Becoming partly cloudy with seasonably cool temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be in the upper 70s. Relative humidity: Will drop below 60% by 11:00 a.m. and to 40-45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning through the afternoon; NNW 7-15 mph this evening. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph transitioning into NW flow late afternoon Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 11th: High 79?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough just to our west should persist through the weekend, with a portion of the trough progressing eastward into eastern OR and WA on Saturday. Expect partly cloudy conditions and continued cool temperatures with maximums in the upper 70s. Upper-level troughing will persist just west of Oregon Sunday. No showers are expected, but the threat of some morning low clouds over the Willamette Valley persists. Mostly sunny conditions are likely in the afternoon. Maximum temperatures will likely warm to the low 80s. On Monday and Tuesday the slow warming is likely to continue with dry conditions persisting. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 12 11:49:49 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2013 11:49:49 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT FRI. JUL 12, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning from now until 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is allowed from now until 3:00 p.m. with a 50-acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A moderately strong upper trough continues to be entrenched along the Pacific coastline today, with generally dry southwesterly flow aloft over western Oregon. Some energy within the trough is pushing eastward and will increase our cloud cover as well as assist an onshore eastward surge late this afternoon and evening. The leading edge of the cloud cover is currently moving into northwestern Oregon. The upper trough remains in place for the next several days, with more weak waves of energy skirting western Oregon as they periodically progress eastward. Cloud cover over western Oregon and the surge will limit valley maximum temperatures to the middle to upper 70s this afternoon. Transport winds already have a weak westerly component, and some increase in NW flow is expected this afternoon and evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Becoming partly cloudy with seasonably cool temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be in the upper 70s. Relative humidity: Will drop to 40-45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 through the afternoon; NW 7-15 mph this evening. Transport winds: NW 5-10 increasing to 10-15 this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 11th: High 79?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough just to our west should persist through the weekend, with a portion of the trough progressing eastward into eastern OR and WA on Saturday. Expect some morning clouds and continued partly cloudy conditions through the day with maximums in the upper 70s. Upper-level troughing will persist just west of Oregon Sunday. No showers are expected, but the threat of some morning low clouds over the Willamette Valley persists. Mostly sunny conditions are likely in the afternoon. Maximum temperatures will likely warm to the low 80s. On Monday and Tuesday the slow warming is likely to continue with dry conditions persisting. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 15 08:43:32 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 15 Jul 2013 08:43:32 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 15, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak summertime pattern prevails over the Pacific NW this morning. To the north an upper level trough is passing by to the east in British Columbia and to the south a weak trough is developing off the northern California coast. Marine low clouds are along the coast but show no signs of moving inland. Pressure gradients are onshore with a 2.2 mb onshore flow from Newport to Salem and a 1.3 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond but the morning sounding from Salem shows only northerly flow. Expect little change from yesterday with the trough to the north ejecting eastward and the trough to the southwest slowly bringing more southerly flow later today and tomorrow. Transport and surface winds are northerly and will remain northerly through the day. Expect continued sunshine and very warm temperatures. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 14th: High 91?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies with above normal temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90. Relative humidity drops to 50% by 10am. Minimum relative humidity 24%. Surface winds: N at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N at 10-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 4500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:55 pm EXTENDED DISCUSSION: For Tuesday the upper level trough to the southwest will make its presence more known bringing a minor marine push to the region during the later afternoon and evening. The marine push appears it will start from the south and work its way northward during the day. Will have to monitor for a possible burn opportunity late. Expect onshore flow and cooler temperatures for Wednesday as the trough lifts to the north and through the region. Expect a minor influx of marine low clouds into the Willamette Valley Wednesday morning. The trough will weaken and with mostly sunny skies during the day. This may present another burn opportunity depending on gradient stacking. A ridge builds into the state Thursday and Friday with wind flow turning northerly and temperatures heating up again. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 15 11:46:49 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 15 Jul 2013 11:46:49 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 15, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak summertime pattern prevails over the Pacific NW. To the north an upper level trough is passing by to the east in British Columbia and to the south a weak trough is developing off the northern California coast. Marine low clouds are dissipating along the Oregon coastline. Pressure gradients are onshore with a 2.4 mb onshore gradient from Newport to Salem and a 1.4 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. Valley observations show a consistent 7-10 mph north wind however. Expect little change from yesterday with the trough to the north ejecting eastward and the trough to the southwest slowly bringing more southerly flow aloft later today and tomorrow. Transport and surface winds are northerly and will remain northerly through the day. Expect continued sunshine and very warm temperatures. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 14th: High 91?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies with above normal temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 91. Minimum relative humidity 27%. Surface winds: N at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N at 10-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 4500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:55 pm EXTENDED DISCUSSION: For Tuesday the upper level trough to the southwest will make its presence more known bringing a minor marine push to the region during the later afternoon and evening. The marine push appears it will start from the south and work its way northward during the day. Will have to monitor for a possible burn opportunity late. Expect onshore flow and cooler temperatures for Wednesday as the trough lifts to the north and through the region. Expect a minor influx of marine low clouds into the Willamette Valley Wednesday morning. The trough will weaken allowing for sunny skies during the day. This may present another burn opportunity depending on gradient stacking. A ridge builds into the state Thursday and Friday with wind flow turning northerly and temperatures heating up again. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Nick Yonker -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 16 08:45:05 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Jul 2013 08:45:05 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT TUES. JUL 16, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended today. Prep burning is not recommended today. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Abundant mid-level moisture is moving in from the south today over the area, and may bring some scattered light showers through the day to the valley. No significant rain is expected, and above average low-level temperatures will continue. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will predominate through the day. Any marine surge later in the day into this evening is likely to be weak. Transport winds are likely to be weak but generally from the north later today. The upper trough off the coast remains in place for the next several days, but with more southwesterly flow skies will return to mostly sunny on Wednesday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy with a few light showers. Salem's high temperature today will be in the upper 80s. Relative humidity: Will drop below 60% by 10:00 a.m. and to 35-40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NE 5-10 mph this morning through the afternoon; NW 5-10 mph this evening. Transport winds: Variable but generally N 5-10 mph Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 15th: High 89?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 30) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will persist through the weak and even strengthen late in the week, with the trough off the coast moving westward slowly. Expect mostly sunny conditions and continued very warm temperatures with maximums in the middle 80s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 16 11:44:52 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Jul 2013 11:44:52 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT TUES. JUL 16, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended today. Prep burning is not recommended today. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Abundant mid-level moisture is moving in from the south today over the area, bringing some scattered light showers through the afternoon to the valley. No significant rain is expected, and cooler surface conditions will prevail due to the cloud cover. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will predominate through the day. Any marine surge later in the day into this evening is likely to be weak. Transport winds are likely to be weak but generally from the north later today. The upper trough off the coast remains in place for the next several days, but with more southwesterly flow skies will return to mostly sunny on Wednesday and warmer conditions. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy with a few light showers through the afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be in the middle 80s. Relative humidity: Will drop to 35-40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-7 mph through the afternoon; NW 5-10 mph this evening. Transport winds: Generally N 5-10 mph Mixing height: Rising to near 3000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 15th: High 89?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 25) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will persist through the week and even strengthen late in the week, with the trough off the coast moving westward slowly. Expect mostly sunny conditions and very warm temperatures with maximums in the middle to upper 80s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 17 08:51:26 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2013 08:51:26 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT WED. JUL 17, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning 2:00 p.m. through 7:00 p.m. today. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Yesterday's influx of moisture aloft, along with an overnight marine surge, has left us with extensive low cloud cover this morning over the valley. The marine layer is approximately 4000 feet deep currently. The low cloud is expected to begin to burn off by late-morning and mixing depth should increase through the afternoon. A marine surge later in the day into this evening is certainly possible, but whether we overcome gradient stacking is questionable. Transport winds are likely to be generally from the southwest to west later today. Dry conditions will prevail for the rest of the week after today's low cloud burns off. Upper ridging is expected to build over the region over the next several days. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning, becoming mostly sunny by mid-afternoon. Very light surface winds are expected. Salem's high temperature today will be in the low to middle 80s. Relative humidity: Will drop below 60% by 1:00 p.m. and to 35-40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Winds light and variable this morning through the afternoon. Transport winds: Generally SW to W 5-10 mph. Mixing height: Rising to near 4000 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tues., July 15th: High 85?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 25) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will strengthen through the rest of the week. Expect mostly sunny conditions and continued very warm temperatures with maximums in the middle 80s to around 90. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 17 11:46:40 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2013 11:46:40 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT WED. JUL 17, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning 2:00 p.m. through 7:00 p.m. today. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Extensive low cloud cover persists for now over the valley, but with some breaks beginning to develop. The low cloud is expected to continue to decrease in the early afternoon and mixing depth should increase through the afternoon. Gradient stacking is unfavorable with 1.6 mb onshore Newport-Salem and 5.0 mb onshore Salem-Redmond as of 11 a.m. and whether we will overcome this later is unclear. PIBALs are scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. Southwesterly transport winds will likely turn to more northwesterly later today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clouds decreasing early this afternoon, becoming partly cloudy by mid-afternoon. Very light surface winds are expected to continue. Salem's high temperature today will be in the low to middle 80s. Relative humidity: Will drop below 60% by 1:00 p.m. and to 35-40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable through the afternoon. Transport winds: Generally SW to W 5-10 mph becoming NW late. Mixing height: Rising to near 4000 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tues., July 15th: High 85?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 35) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will strengthen through the rest of the week. Expect mostly sunny and dry conditions and very warm temperatures with maximums in the middle 80s to around 90. Some potential for late-day favorable wind direction profiles exists. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 18 08:47:33 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Jul 2013 08:47:33 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT THURS. JUL 18, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended today. Prep burning allowed 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Low clouds have developed this morning over the valley and portions of the coastal region. The low cloud cover is expected to begin to burn off by late-morning and mixing depth should increase through the afternoon. Northerly flow will dominate the low levels. A sea breeze push very late in the day into this evening is likely, but getting into a favorable gradient pattern by late afternoon is unlikely. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy this morning, becoming mostly sunny by early afternoon. Very light surface winds are expected. Salem's high temperature today will be in the middle to upper 80s. Relative humidity will drop below 60% by noon and to 30-35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Winds light and variable this morning becoming N 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Generally N 5-10 mph. Mixing height: Rising to near 4000 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wed., July 17th: High 81?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will strengthen through the rest of the week. Expect mostly sunny conditions and continued very warm temperatures with maximums in the middle 80s to around 90 and northerly transport winds. At this point model guidance suggests a more favorable onshore flow pattern later next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 18 11:41:02 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Jul 2013 11:41:02 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT THURS. JUL 18, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended today. Prep burning is allowed from 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Low clouds have dissipated late this morning, surface winds are light and variable and mixing depth should increase through the afternoon. Northerly flow will dominate the low levels this afternoon. A weak sea breeze push very late in the day into this evening is likely, but getting into a favorable gradient pattern by late afternoon is unlikely. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny this afternoon. Very light surface winds are expected. Salem's high temperature today will be in the middle 80s. Relative humidity will drop to 30-35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Winds becoming N to NE 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Generally N 5-10 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3500-4000 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wed., July 17th: High 81?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 35) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will strengthen through the rest of the week. Expect mostly sunny conditions and continued very warm temperatures with maximums in the middle 80s to around 90 and northerly transport winds. At this point model guidance suggests a more favorable onshore flow pattern later next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 19 08:48:02 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Jul 2013 08:48:02 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT FRI. JUL 19, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended today. Prep burning is allowed from 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Low clouds have again developed this morning over much of the valley and coastal areas. Dissipation of this low cloud cover is expected by late-morning and mixing depth should increase through the afternoon. Northerly flow will continue to dominate the low levels. More favorable local gradient patterns are likely by mid-afternoon, but no significant westerly component is expected prior to this evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy this morning, becoming mostly sunny by early afternoon. Very light surface winds are expected. Salem's high temperature today will be in the upper 80s. Relative humidity will drop below 60% by noon and to 30-35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Winds light and variable this morning becoming N 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Generally N 5-10 mph. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:52 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thurs., July 18th: High 87?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 35) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will strengthen through Saturday, and then slowly weaken in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Expect mostly sunny conditions and continued very warm temperatures with maximums in the middle 80s to around 90 and mostly northerly transport winds. Model guidance continues to portray a more favorable onshore flow pattern later next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 19 11:46:29 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Jul 2013 11:46:29 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT FRI. JUL 19, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended today. Prep burning is allowed from 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Low clouds are dissipating over the valley and coastal areas. Sunny skies are expected in the valley by 1:00 p.m. and mixing depth should increase through the afternoon. Northerly flow will continue to dominate the low levels at 5-10 mph with some local areas getting up to 15 mph. A more favorable gradient pattern is likely by mid-afternoon, but no significant low-level westerly component is expected prior to this evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny this afternoon and very warm. Northerly surface winds 5-15 mph are expected. Salem's high temperature today will be in the upper 80s. Relative humidity will drop to 30-35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Generally N 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to near 3500 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:52 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thurs., July 18th: High 87?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will dominate through Saturday, and then slowly weaken in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Expect mostly sunny conditions and continued very warm temperatures with maximums in the middle 80s to around 90 and mostly northerly transport winds. Model guidance continues to portray a more favorable onshore flow pattern later next week, in the Wed.-Fri. timeframe. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 22 08:43:54 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2013 08:43:54 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT MON JUL 22, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Typical summertime pattern continues over the Pacific NW with a flat upper level ridge over the state this morning. Marine low clouds are along the coast and have moved through the Columbia River corridor filling mainly the east side of the Willamette Valley down through most of Linn County. Pressure gradients are onshore with a 1.6 mb onshore flow from Newport to Salem and a 2.5 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. The morning sounding from Salem shows northerly flow. Expect little change from yesterday with the ridge building slightly this afternoon. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through the day. Low clouds should burn off by around 11 a.m. and turn into a sunny and very warm day this afternoon. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 21st: High 86?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning low clouds with late morning clearing. Above normal temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87. Relative humidity drops to 50% around noon. Minimum RH 30-35%. Surface winds: N at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N at 10-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 3000 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge continues to build over the state on Tuesday and then moves to the east. This should reduce or eliminate the marine low clouds from invading the Valley tomorrow morning. A minor trough develops to the south and has the potential to bring some scattered thunderstorms over the Cascades Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday. Low level wind flow will remain mostly northerly. Expect little change on Wednesday with the upper ridge to the east of the region. Pressure gradients will be mostly weak leaving the region under persistent northerly flow. An upper level trough to the northwest shows signs it will move southward on Thursday and potentially bring a marine push during the afternoon. Trough will move into the state on Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 22 11:44:28 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2013 11:44:28 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT MON JUL 22, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Typical summertime pattern continues over the Pacific NW with a flat upper level ridge over the state today. Morning low clouds have dissipated. Pressure gradients are onshore with a 1.9 mb onshore gradient from Newport to Salem and a 2.9 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. Expect little change from yesterday with the ridge building slightly this afternoon and evening. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through the day. Expect sunny skies and warm temperatures, averaging about 5 degrees above normal. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 21st: High 86?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) TODAY'S FORECAST: Clears Skies. Above normal temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87. Relative humidity drops to 50% around noon. Minimum RH 30-35%. Surface winds: N at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N at 10-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 3000 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge continues to build over the state on Tuesday and then moves to the east. This should reduce or eliminate the marine low clouds from invading the Valley tomorrow morning. A minor trough develops to the south and has the potential to bring some scattered thunderstorms over the Cascades Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday. Low level wind flow will remain mostly northerly. Expect little change on Wednesday with the upper ridge to the east of the region. Pressure gradients will be mostly weak leaving the region under persistent northerly flow. An upper level trough to the northwest shows signs it will move southward on Thursday and potentially bring a marine push during the afternoon. Trough will move into the state on Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 23 08:48:23 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 08:48:23 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast _doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT TUES JUL 23, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A typical summertime pattern continues over the Pacific NW with a flat upper level ridge over the state today. Morning low clouds are confined to the north end of the valley this morning. Pressure gradients are currently onshore with a 2.2 mb onshore gradient from Newport to Salem and a 1.0 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. Expect little change from yesterday with the ridge maintaining strength this afternoon and evening. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through the day. Sunny skies and warm temperatures will dominate. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 22nd: High 87?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect sunny skies with above average temperatures continuing. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90. Relative humidity will drop to 45-50% by noon. Minimum RH 30-35%. Surface winds: N to NE at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N at 10-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 3500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:48 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge begins to move to the east on Wednesday. This will allow some minor trough energy to develop and move into the area from the south, along with some mid-level moisture, and it has the potential to bring some scattered thunderstorms over the Cascades late Wednesday. Low level wind flow will remain mostly northerly. On Thursday the upper ridge will likely begin to rebuild over the region. Pressure gradients will be mostly weak leaving the region under persistent northerly flow. This scenario now appears likely to persist through Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 23 11:40:44 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 11:40:44 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT TUES JUL 23, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A typical summertime pattern continues over the Pacific NW with a flat upper level ridge over the state today and mostly sunny conditions. Pressure gradients are currently onshore with a 2.4 mb onshore gradient from Newport to Salem and a 1.3 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. Expect little change from yesterday with the ridge maintaining strength this afternoon and evening. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through the day. Sunny skies and warm temperatures will dominate. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 22nd: High 87?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect sunny skies with above average temperatures continuing. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90. Relative humidity will drop to 30-35% late this afternoon. Surface winds: N to NE at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N at 10-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 3500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:48 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge begins to move slowly to the east on Wednesday. This will allow some minor trough energy to develop and move into the area from the south, along with some mid-level moisture, and it has the potential to bring some scattered thunderstorms over the Cascades late Wednesday. Low level wind flow will remain mostly northerly. On Thursday the upper ridge will begin to rebuild over the region. Pressure gradients will be mostly weak leaving the region under persistent northerly flow. Late on Friday the upper ridge will likely begin to weaken once again and may allow a more significant onshore gradient to develop. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 24 08:45:11 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2013 08:45:11 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT WED JUL 24, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A broad upper level ridge, centered over the Pacific northwest, continues over the state today. Some mid-level moisture has worked its way up into central OR overnight, but low clouds are confined to the immediate coastline. Pressure gradients are currently weak-onshore with a 1.7 mb onshore gradient from Newport to Salem and a 1.0 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. Expect little change from yesterday with the ridge maintaining strength this afternoon and evening. Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will continue to dominate the valley. Isolated light showers will affect the Cascade Range. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through the day. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 23rd: High 94?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 35) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect mostly sunny skies with above average temperatures continuing. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90. Relative humidity will drop to 45-50% by noon and 30-35% late this afternoon. Surface winds: N to NE at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N at 10-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 3500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:47 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge persists through Thursday over the region, with only some limited mid-level moisture over southern OR and very warm conditions continuing. Low level wind flow will remain mostly northerly over the valley. On Friday the upper ridge appears likely to begin to weaken, as troughing develops on the coast. This scenario should increase the chances for an onshore gradient to develop late in the day. More precise timing of that change is uncertain at this time. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 24 11:45:57 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2013 11:45:57 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT WED JUL 24, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A broad upper level ridge, centered over the Pacific northwest, continues to dominate today. Sunny conditions are continuing over the region. Pressure gradients are currently 2.9 mb onshore from Newport to Salem and a 1.3 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. Expect little change from yesterday with the ridge maintaining strength this afternoon and evening. Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will continue to dominate. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through the afternoon, and any local coastal push will be delayed until evening. Isolated light showers will affect the Cascade Range. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 23rd: High 94?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect mostly sunny skies with above average temperatures continuing. Salem's high temperature today will be around 90. Relative humidity will drop to 30-35% late this afternoon. Surface winds: Generally N to NE at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N at 10-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 3500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:47 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge persists through Thursday over the region, with only some limited mid-level moisture over southern OR and very warm surface conditions continuing. Low level wind flow will remain mostly northerly over the valley and Silverton hills. On Friday the upper ridge is likely to begin to weaken, as troughing develops on the coast. This scenario should increase the chances for a better onshore gradient to develop late in the day. More precise timing of that change is uncertain at this time. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 25 08:47:10 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2013 08:47:10 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT THURS. JUL 25, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The broad upper level ridge over the Pacific northwest begins to weaken just a bit today. Some mid-level moisture remains over central/eastern OR, but low clouds are confined to the immediate coastline. Pressure gradients are currently weak-onshore with a 2.5 mb onshore gradient from Newport to Salem and a 1.2 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. Expect little change from yesterday in the low levels today, as the effects of the movement of the upper ridge will not begin to be realized until late tomorrow. Sunny skies and very warm temperatures will continue to dominate the valley. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through the day. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 24th: High 94?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect mostly sunny skies with above average temperatures continuing. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90. Relative humidity will drop to 40-45% by noon and 30-35% late this afternoon. Surface winds: N to NE at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N at 10-20 mph. Maximum mixing height: 4000 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge continues to move slowly eastward on Friday, with weak troughing beginning to build along the coastline. Low level wind flow will remain mostly northerly over the valley through at least mid-afternoon. Sunny skies will likely continue through the day with cooler surface temperatures. Late on Friday, the weak coastline trough development will increase the chances for a late-day marine push towards the valley. On Saturday and Sunday this trend towards increasing onshore flow continues at all levels with cooler low-level conditions and the likelihood of morning low clouds in the region. On Monday the onshore pattern is likely to continue with cool temperatures and good potential for low clouds and a marine push, although the timing is not clear at this point. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 25 11:45:47 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2013 11:45:47 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT THURS. JUL 25, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The broad upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest is beginning to move slowly eastward today. Some mid-level moisture remains over central/eastern OR, but coastal low clouds have mostly burned off. Pressure gradients are currently weak-onshore with a 2.9 mb onshore gradient from Newport to Salem and a 1.6 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. The expected gradients this afternoon are favorable for prep burning. Expect little change from yesterday in the low levels today, as the effects of the movement of the upper ridge will not begin to be realized here until late tomorrow. Sunny skies and very warm temperatures will continue to dominate the valley. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through the day. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 24th: High 94?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect sunny skies with above average temperatures continuing. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90. Relative humidity will drop to 30-35% late this afternoon. Surface winds: N to NE at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N to NE at 10-20 mph. Maximum mixing height: 4000 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge continues to move slowly eastward on Friday, with weak troughing beginning to build along the coastline. Low level wind flow will remain mostly northerly over the valley into the afternoon. Sunny skies will likely continue through the day with slightly cooler surface temperatures. Late on Friday, there should be an increase in onshore flow and this may present a brief burning opportunity. On Saturday and Sunday this trend towards increasing onshore flow continues at all levels with cooler low-level conditions and the likelihood of morning low clouds in the region. On Monday the onshore pattern is likely to continue with cool temperatures and good potential for low clouds. Burning opportunities are possible. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 26 08:43:57 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2013 08:43:57 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT FRI. JUL 26, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge axis is finally edging eastward a bit today, with weak coastline troughing developing. Some low cloudiness is over the immediate coastline this morning, while scattered mid-level cloudiness exists off to the east and south. Pressure gradients are currently weakly favorable with some strengthening in the onshore direction expected later. Mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures will continue to dominate the valley. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through early afternoon, and a deep mixed layer is expected. We do expect development of some westerly component in the winds later this afternoon and will closely monitor the situation as this could create favorable burning conditions. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 25th: High 94?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect mostly sunny skies with breezy conditions developing this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90. Relative humidity will drop to 40-45% by noon and 30-35% late this afternoon. Surface winds: N at 5-15 mph. Transport winds: N to NNW at 10-20 mph. Maximum mixing height: 4500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Troughing will continue to build along the coastline this weekend and slowly extend eastward, with cooler conditions and morning low clouds becoming more prevalent. However extensive, persistent cloudiness is not expected over the Cascade Range. Some drizzle could develop during cloudy periods, especially for the north and west sections of the valley. On Monday the onshore pattern is likely to continue with relatively cool low-level conditions and the likelihood of morning low clouds. Persistence is currently expected for Tuesday also, with favorable onshore conditions prevailing. The precise timing of surges and cloud cover for the Monday-Tuesday time period is uncertain but some chances at favorable burning periods are expected. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 26 11:51:57 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2013 11:51:57 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT FRI. JUL 26, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge axis is finally edging eastward a bit today, with weak coastline troughing developing. Skies are sunny as dry conditions continue. Pressure gradients are currently weakly favorable with some strengthening in the onshore direction expected later. Mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures will continue to dominate the region this afternoon. Transport and surface winds will remain northerly through early afternoon, but a gradual transition towards onshore flow is beginning today. A deep mixed layer is also expected this afternoon. A slight westerly component in the transport winds is likely after 3:00 p.m. or so and we will closely monitor the situation via surface observations, PIBALS and model guidance updates. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 25th: High 94?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect mostly sunny skies with breezy conditions developing this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90. Relative humidity will be near 30% late this afternoon. Surface winds: N at 5-15 mph. Transport winds: N to NNW at 10-20 mph. Maximum mixing height: 4500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Troughing will continue to build along the coastline this weekend and slowly extend eastward, with cooler conditions and morning low clouds becoming more prevalent. However extensive, persistent cloudiness is not expected over the Cascade Range. Some drizzle could develop during cloudy periods, especially for the north and west sections of the valley. On Monday the onshore pattern is likely to continue with relatively cool low-level conditions and the likelihood of morning low clouds. Persistence is currently expected for Tuesday also, with favorable onshore conditions prevailing. The precise timing of surges and cloud cover for the Monday-Tuesday time period is uncertain but some chances for favorable burning periods are expected. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 29 08:40:01 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 29 Jul 2013 08:40:01 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT MON JUL 29, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 12:00pm to 6:30pm. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper level trough resides over the Pacific Northwest this morning. It has brought some marine low clouds into the Willamette Valley, mainly from Marion County northward. Surface pressure gradients are fairly light with 1.7 mb onshore gradient from Newport to Salem and a 2.7 mb onshore gradient from Salem to Redmond. The sounding over Salem this morning showed a weak NW to N flow. Expect only subtle changes over the state today with the trough strengthening a little over the eastern Pacific which will build minor ridging over the state today and tonight. Marine layer goes up to around 3500 ft this morning which usually means a burn off time by noon. Once the marine clouds dissipate, NW wind flow should increase some and make for a possible burn opportunity. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 28th: High 80?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning low clouds with late morning clearing. Near normal temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81. Relative humidity drops to 50% around noon. Minimum RH 30-35%. Surface winds: NW to N at 4-7 mph during the morning. NW to NNW at 5-10 mph during the afternoon. Transport winds: NW to N at 4-7 mph during the morning. NW to NNW at 6-10 mph during the afternoon. Maximum mixing height: 4000 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:42 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level trough continues to dig southward over the eastern Pacific on Tuesday bringing more ridging over the state. This should reduce or eliminate the marine low clouds from invading the Valley tomorrow morning as onshore pressure gradients weaken. Wind flow will be light and variable during the morning but turn onshore during the afternoon as Valley heating draws the flow inland. On Wednesday the upper trough fully develops bringing southerly flow aloft over the region possibly developing thunderstorms over the Cascades and the foothills. In addition, as the trough begins to move inland a late day marine push is likely to develop. Unsure at this time whether this push will be early enough to present a good burn opportunity. The upper trough moves inland on Thursday bringing southwest flow but also the possibility of some light showers. The trough will remain overhead with a continued chance of showers into Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 29 11:56:48 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 29 Jul 2013 11:56:48 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT MON JUL 29, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from 12:00pm to 6:30pm. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper level trough resides over the Pacific Northwest today. The marine low clouds that came into the north Willamette Valley this morning are rapidly dissipating. Surface pressure gradients from Newport to Salem are 2.3 mb onshore and 2.8 mb onshore from Salem to Redmond. Expect sunny skies this afternoon. Weak ridging will develop over the state today and tonight but this will have little effect on the increase in wind that should pick up from the northwest this afternoon. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 28th: High 80?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) TODAY'S FORECAST: Clearing skies, sunny and warm this afternoon. Near normal temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81. Relative humidity drops to 50% by 1 p.m. Minimum RH 30-35%. Surface winds: NW to N at 4-7 mph during the morning. NW to NNW at 5-10 mph during the afternoon. Transport winds: NW to N at 4-7 mph during the morning. NW to NNW at 6-10 mph during the afternoon. Maximum mixing height: 4000 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:42 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level trough continues to dig southward over the eastern Pacific on Tuesday bringing more ridging over the state. This should reduce or eliminate the marine low clouds from invading the Valley tomorrow morning as onshore pressure gradients weaken. Wind flow will be light and variable during the morning but turn onshore during the afternoon as Valley heating draws the flow inland. On Wednesday the upper trough fully develops bringing southerly flow aloft over the region possibly developing thunderstorms over the Cascades and the foothills. In addition, as the trough begins to move inland a late day marine push is likely to develop. Unsure at this time whether this push will be early enough to present a good burn opportunity. The upper trough moves inland on Thursday bringing southwest flow but also the possibility of some light showers. The trough will remain overhead with a continued chance of showers into Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 30 08:44:23 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2013 08:44:23 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT TUES. JUL 30, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper troughing continues just off the coast, with southwesterly winds dominating aloft. Partly cloudy skies are in place with low clouds covering the coastal region and portions of the north valley, and some mid-level cloudiness present. Pressure gradients are currently very weak. Mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures will dominate the region today after low clouds decrease in coverage by late morning. Transport winds will be northerly but generally weak through early afternoon, with some onshore flow possibly developing late this afternoon as gradients become somewhat more favorable. A mixed layer of 3000 feet deep or greater is also expected this afternoon. We will closely monitor the situation via surface observations, PIBALS and model guidance updates. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 29th: High 81?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 35) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be in the mid 80s. Relative humidity will be 30-35% late this afternoon. Surface winds: N at 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N to NNW at 10-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 3000 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:41 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper troughing is expected to strengthen over the area on Wednesday and slowly extend eastward, with cooler conditions and morning low clouds more prevalent. Partly cloudy skies with some light shower development over the valley late in the day is expected, with some onshore flow expected late. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions are also expected Thursday as the upper trough continues to move inland, with a continued chance of showers. On Friday the onshore, unsettled pattern looks to continue with relatively cool low-level conditions and a likelihood of morning low clouds. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 30 09:43:54 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2013 09:43:54 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast Jefferson County_doug.doc Message-ID: JEFFERSON COUNTY FIELD-BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:45 AM PDT TUES. JULY 30, 2013 TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy and dry. W to NW winds this afternoon. Madras' High Temperature: 85 degrees Transport Winds: Light and variable this morning; becoming NW to N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing Heights: 3000 feet at 11 a.m.; rising above 5000 feet after 2 p.m. Relative Humidity: Dropping to near 20% this afternoon. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper level trough approaches on Wednesday, bringing a chance of thunderstorms. Wind flow will be light NE to SE during the morning, turning to NNW during the mid to late afternoon. High temperatures in the mid 80s are expected. Upper level trough moves over the region Thursday and Friday bringing a continued chance of showers and thundershowers and cooler conditions. Wind flow will increase from the W. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.68&lon=-121.14861&site=pdt&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. at a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. 4. Ventilation Index (if you want to calculate it) is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For more information, contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 30 11:49:22 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2013 11:49:22 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT TUES. JUL 30, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper troughing continues just off the coast, with southwesterly winds aloft over the area. Mostly sunny skies are in place with some low cloudiness hanging on over the coastal region and portions of the north valley. Pressure gradients are continuing to be very weak and surface winds are very light. Mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures will dominate the area today. Transport winds will be northerly but generally weak through early afternoon, with some onshore flow possibly developing late this afternoon as gradients become somewhat more favorable. A mixed layer of greater than 3000 feet deep is also expected this afternoon. We will closely monitor the situation via surface observations, PIBALS and model guidance updates. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 29th: High 81?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 35) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be in the mid 80s. Relative humidity will be 30-35% late this afternoon. Surface winds: Light. Transport winds: N to NNW at 5-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 3500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:41 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper troughing is expected to strengthen over the area on Wednesday and slowly extend eastward, with cooler conditions and morning low clouds more prevalent. Partly cloudy skies with some light shower development over the valley late in the day is expected, with some onshore flow expected late. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions are also expected Thursday as the upper trough continues to move inland, with a continued chance of showers and potential for an onshore flow pattern. On Friday the onshore, unsettled pattern will likely continue with relatively cool low-level conditions and a likelihood of morning low clouds. As the late-week period approaches, we will provide more details on the flow and moisture pattern. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 31 08:42:56 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 31 Jul 2013 08:42:56 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:00 AM PDT WED. JUL 31, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper troughing continues just off the coast, with south-southwesterly winds aloft over the area. Mostly cloudy skies are in place with extensive mid-level moisture and low clouds. Pressure gradients are weak and surface winds are nearly calm. Mostly cloudy skies with some scattered light showers and possible thunderstorms are expected in the area later today. Transport winds will be northerly but generally weak through early afternoon, with some onshore flow likely developing late this afternoon as gradients become weakly favorable. Mixed layer depth will be limited with the lack of sunshine today and southerly flow in the mid-levels. Winds will be erratic in the vicinity of showers. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 30th: High 84?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 25) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect mostly cloudy skies with weak winds. Salem's high temperature today will be around 80. Relative humidity will be 35-40% late this afternoon. Surface winds: Light. Transport winds: N to NNW at 5-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 2500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:39 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper troughing is expected move eastward over the area on Thursday, with cooler conditions, extensive cloudiness and scattered showers. General onshore flow is expected but limited surface heating will likely keep the mixed layer depth down. Mostly cloudy conditions and cool surface temperatures are also expected Friday as the upper trough persists, with a continued chance of showers. On Saturday a warming, drying trend should start but low clouds early are likely. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 31 11:43:41 2013 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 31 Jul 2013 11:43:41 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_doug.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:00 PM PDT WED. JUL 31, 2013 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper troughing continues just off the coast, with south-southwesterly winds aloft over the area. Mostly cloudy skies are in place with extensive mid-level moisture as well as low clouds. Some light shower activity is present off to the south and east, and moving north. Pressure gradients are still weak as this time and surface winds are nearly calm. Mostly cloudy skies with some scattered light showers and possible thundershowers are expected in the area this afternoon. Transport winds will be northerly but generally weak through early afternoon, with some onshore flow likely developing late this afternoon as gradients become weakly favorable and the trough begins to move inland. Mixed layer depth will be limited with the lack of sunshine today and southerly flow in the mid-levels. Winds will be erratic in the vicinity of showers. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 30th: High 84?F; Rainfall .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 25) TODAY'S FORECAST: Expect mostly cloudy skies with weak winds. Salem's high temperature today will be around 80. Relative humidity will be 35-40% late this afternoon. Surface winds: Light. Transport winds: N to NW at 5-15 mph. Maximum mixing height: 2500 ft. Sunset tonight: 8:39 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper troughing is expected move eastward over the area on Thursday, with cooler conditions, extensive cloudiness and scattered showers. General onshore flow is expected but limited surface heating will likely keep the mixed layer depth down. Mostly cloudy conditions and cool surface temperatures are also expected Friday as the upper trough persists, with a continued chance of showers. On Saturday a warming, drying trend should start but low clouds early are likely. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Doug Wesley ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... 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