From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 1 09:34:28 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2014 09:34:28 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Test Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:15 AM PDT TUE JUL 1, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Test message only. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Test message only. TODAY'S FORECAST: Test message only. Salem's high temperature today will be near XX degrees (average is XX). Relative humidity: Dropping to XX% by 1 p.m. Surface winds: X X-XX mph this morning; X X-XX mph this afternoon. Transport winds: X XX mph this morning; X XX-XX mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Below XXXX feet throughout the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, June 30th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: XX) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Test message only. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Test Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Test Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 1 11:27:27 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2014 11:27:27 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Test Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT TUE JUL 1, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Test midday update only. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Test midday update only. TODAY'S FORECAST: Test midday update only. Salem's high temperature today will be near XX degrees (average is XX). Relative humidity: Dropping to XX% by 1 p.m. Surface winds: X X-XX mph this morning; X X-XX mph this afternoon. Transport winds: X XX mph this morning; X XX-XX mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Below XXXX feet throughout the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, June 30th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: XX) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Test midday update only. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Test Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Test Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 2 08:55:51 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2014 08:55:51 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Test Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED JUL 2, 2014 ...TEST MESSAGE... ...CONTENT VALID... ...TEST MESSAGE... ...CONTENT VALID... BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance moved onshore overnight and is producing mostly cloudy skies this morning over the northern Willamette Valley and thunderstorms over the Cascades. The strong surface thermal trough that brought near 100 degree heat to the region on Tuesday has moved into central Oregon with cooler onshore flow expected today west of the Cascades. The air aloft has cooled significantly since yesterday, so mixing should be good this afternoon with increasing NW surface and transport winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy this morning with a risk of a shower. Partly cloudy this afternoon. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83 degrees (average is 79). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to 37% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5 mph this morning; NW 7-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to above 5000 feet after 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 1st: High 99?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A dry and stable southwesterly flow aloft will continue Thursday and Friday. Low-level onshore flow will maintain seasonal temperatures with generally NW transport winds and good afternoon mixing. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Test Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Test Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 2 11:49:13 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2014 11:49:13 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 2, 2014 ...TEST MESSAGE... ...CONTENT VALID... ...TEST MESSAGE... ...CONTENT VALID... BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance moved onshore overnight, initiating a cooling trend across western Oregon and producing thunderstorms over the Cascades. That system will push east of the region this afternoon, replaced by a more stable but cooler SW flow aloft. The strong surface thermal trough that brought near 100 degree heat to the Willamette Valley on Tuesday has moved into central Oregon with cooler onshore flow expected today west of the Cascades. The air aloft has cooled significantly since yesterday, so mixing should be good this afternoon with increasing NW surface and transport winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny this afternoon. Much cooler but still warmer than average. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83 degrees (average is 79). Relative humidity: Dropping to about 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW increasing to 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW increasing to 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 1st: High 99?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A stable southwesterly flow aloft and low-level onshore flow will bring dry weather and seasonal temperatures to the region Thursday and Friday. Fairly extensive morning marine clouds should give way to afternoon sunshine. Expect valley highs in the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon transport winds should be northwesterly with cool air aloft maintaining good daytime mixing. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 3 08:46:09 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 3 Jul 2014 08:46:09 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU JUL 3, 2014 ...TEST MESSAGE... ...CONTENT VALID... ...TEST MESSAGE... ...CONTENT VALID... BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 10 a.m. until 7 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough has set up along the coast of Oregon providing onshore pressure gradients with the most stacking to the east of Salem. Current gradients are a +1.6 mb from Newport to Salem and +4.1 mb from Salem to Redmond. This onshore flow brought a fairly deep marine layer into the Willamette Valley overnight. Satellite picture shows marine clouds banked solidly to the Cascade crest at a depth of almost 5000 ft. The upper trough will gradually weaken today. Expect marine clouds to dissipate from the Willamette Valley near noon to early afternoon and keep high temperatures a several degrees cooler than yesterday. Transport and surface wind will be light NW to NNW. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning with clouds dissipating by 1 p.m. Mostly clear this afternoon. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (average is 79). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to 44% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 0-5 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 3-7 mph this morning; NW 8-12 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Morning 3500 - 4000 ft, rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 2nd: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A dry and stable southwesterly flow aloft will continue into the weekend with a broad and flat ridge building over the state into early next week. Low-level onshore flow weakens with winds turning mostly light northerly with weak onshore NNW flow in the late afternoon and evening. Expect mostly clear skies and gradual warming into the upper 80s early next week. Mixing levels will be below 1000 ft during the early morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the max heating of the day. Overall, a classic summer pattern. Wind pattern looks a little too northerly for good burn opportunities early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 3 11:43:35 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 3 Jul 2014 11:43:35 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU JUL 3, 2014 ...TEST MESSAGE... ...CONTENT VALID... ...TEST MESSAGE... ...CONTENT VALID... BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 10 a.m. until 7 p.m. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough has set up along the coast of Oregon providing onshore pressure gradients with the most stacking to the east of Salem. Current gradients are a +2.0 mb from Newport to Salem and +4.5 mb from Salem to Redmond. This onshore flow is keeping a fairly deep marine layer in the Willamette Valley. Marine clouds have retreated so far down to the foothills of the Cascades but will remain over the Willamette Valley until early this afternoon. The upper trough will gradually weaken today and tonight. Expect the later breakup of the marine clouds to keep high temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday. Transport and surface wind will be light NW to N. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning with clouds dissipating around 1 p.m. Mostly clear this afternoon. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (average is 79). Relative humidity: Dropping to 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW to N at 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNW to N at 8-12 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising from near 4000 ft to 4500 - 5000 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 2nd: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A dry and stable southwesterly flow aloft will continue into the weekend with a broad and flat ridge building over the state into early next week. Low-level onshore flow weakens with winds turning mostly light northerly with weak onshore NNW flow in the late afternoon and evening. Expect mostly clear skies and gradual warming into the upper 80s early next week. Mixing levels below 1000 ft during the early morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the max heating of the day. Overall, a classic summer pattern. Wind pattern looks a little too northerly for good burn opportunities early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 7 08:46:30 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 08:46:30 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 7, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Broad upper level trough built over the state through the weekend and will remain over the state today. A minor influx of marine air moved into the Willamette Valley last night with the satellite pictures showing clouds banked along the coast and pushing into the Coast Range corridors this morning. Current gradients are a +2.2 mb from Newport to Salem and -0.1 mb from Salem to Redmond. The morning sounding shows a deep stable layer with mixing height below 1000 ft and NNW to NNE winds at 5-10 mph. Upper ridge will remain over the state today. Marine low clouds to our west will quickly dissipate. Expect another sunny and hot day with the temperatures reaching 90+ in the Willamette Valley. Wind flow will be light northerly. Mixing will remain mostly poor during the morning but daytime heating should lift mixing heights to 4000 - 5000 ft during the late afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 92 degrees (average is 80). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 9 a.m. and to 28% by 4 p.m. Surface winds: NNW to N 3-6 mph this morning; NNW to N 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Mostly northerly at 6 - 12 mph throughout the day. Mixing height: Morning below 2500 ft, rising to near 3000 by 1 p.m. and to 4500 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 6th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 54) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridge shifts to the east tomorrow with a minor marine push moving in tomorrow late afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms are likely over the Cascades Tuesday evening. Wind flow will become more northwesterly during the day but remain mostly northerly during the night and early morning hours. Daytime high temperatures will lower several degrees over the next few days. Ridge starts to rebuild late in the week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 7 11:49:05 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 11:49:05 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 7, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Broad upper level ridge built over the state through the weekend and will remain over the state today. Marine low clouds have retreated to the coast leaving the state under clear skies. Current gradients are a +2.8 mb from Newport to Salem and -0.2 mb from Salem to Redmond. 11 a.m. temperatures at the Salem airport have warmed to 79F providing a mixing level of 2200 ft. Upper ridge will remain over the state today. Expect another sunny and very warm day with the temperatures reaching the low 90s in the Willamette Valley. Wind flow will be northerly. Daytime heating should lift mixing heights to 4000 - 5000 ft during the late afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 92 degrees (average is 80). Relative humidity: dropping to near 30% by 4 p.m. Surface winds: NNW to N 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Mostly northerly at 6 - 12 mph throughout the day. Mixing height: Rising to near 3000 by 1 p.m. and to 4500 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 6th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 54) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridge shifts to the east tomorrow with a minor marine push moving in tomorrow late afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms are likely over the Cascades Tuesday evening. Wind flow will become more northwesterly during the day but remain mostly northerly during the night and early morning hours. Daytime high temperatures will lower several degrees over the next few days but remain quite warm. Ridge starts to rebuild late in the week with temperatures warming again. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 8 08:51:47 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2014 08:51:47 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE JUL 8, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Prep burning is not allowed. Agricultural Burning: North of Salem - Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. >From Salem South - Agricultural burning is not recommended. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest this morning. At the surface, a thermal trough extends from eastern Washington southward across central Oregon, with very weak onshore flow into western Oregon. Marine low clouds are confined mostly to the coastline. A few patches of low clouds over the western Cascade foothills should quickly evaporate this morning. Strong surface heating will lead to good mixing again this afternoon, but transport winds should remain mostly northerly from about Salem southward across the Willamette Valley today. Southerly flow aloft will direct considerable middle and high-level moisture northward across Oregon today, which will combine with daytime heating to trigger thundershower development over and east of the Cascades. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny this morning. Partly cloudy and quite warm this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90 degrees (average is 81). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NNW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph this morning; NNW 17 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 7th: High 93?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak weather system cutting across SW Canada will flatten the upper-level ridge over Oregon Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing onshore flow will likely spread some morning marine clouds into western Oregon and back high temperatures off into the middle 80s. Transport winds should turn more northwesterly, which could provide limited burning opportunities, if any fields are ready. The upper-level ridge is expected to begin rebuild over the region Friday through Sunday, for a return to warmer temperatures and more northerly transport winds. Southerly flow aloft will increase the chance of afternoon and evening thundershowers...mainly over and east of the Cascades. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 8 11:51:09 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2014 11:51:09 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT TUE JUL 8, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Prep burning is not allowed. Agricultural Burning: North of Salem - Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. >From Salem South - Agricultural burning is not recommended. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge remains locked in place over Oregon. At the surface, a thermal trough extends from eastern Washington southward across central Oregon, with weak onshore flow into western Oregon. Marine low clouds are confined to the coastline. The few patches of low clouds that formed over the western Cascade foothills this morning quickly evaporated this morning, with sunny skies at midday. Temperatures and north winds are similar what we saw on Monday. Strong surface heating will lead to good mixing again this afternoon, but transport winds should remain mostly northerly across the Willamette Valley. One significant difference today, however, is that southerly flow aloft is bringing monsoonal moisture into southern Oregon, from Nevada and northern California. This moisture will progress northward this afternoon; bringing increasing middle and high clouds to NW Oregon. The increase in moisture will combine with afternoon heating trigger scattered thundershower development over southern Oregon...possibly advancing as far north as the central Cascades. The possibility of a late evening or overnight thundershower can't be ruled out for the Willamette Valley. TODAY'S FORECAST: Increasing middle and high clouds. Risk of a thundershower late. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90 degrees (average is 81). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-15 mph; becoming NNW 10-15 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: N 15-20 mph; becoming NNW 15-20 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 7th: High 93?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak weather system cutting across SW Canada will flatten the upper-level ridge over Oregon Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing onshore flow will likely spread some morning marine clouds into western Oregon...cooling temperatures back into the middle 80s and pushing the thundershower threat east of the region. Transport winds should turn more northwesterly, which could provide limited burning opportunities, if any fields are ready. The upper-level ridge is expected to rebuild over the region Friday through Sunday, for a return to warmer temperatures and more northerly transport winds. Southerly flow aloft will increase the chance of afternoon and evening thundershowers again, especially over the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 9 08:49:48 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 08:49:48 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED JUL 9, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak weather system cutting across SW Canada is flattening the upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest, with increasing onshore flow into western Oregon this morning. Low clouds are banked up along the coast, with some penetration into the coastal range gaps. Some middle and high clouds, associated with a weak upper-level disturbance remain over the Willamette Valley. Patchy marine clouds may still form this morning but should quickly give way to sunny skies again today. Weak westerly flow aloft will stabilize the air mass and push the threat of thunderstorm development well east of the Cascades this afternoon. Minor cooling aloft will make for good afternoon mixing, with temperatures backing off into the upper 80s. Transport winds should turn more northwesterly, which could provide a burning opportunity, if any fields are ready. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy this morning. Sunny but slightly cooler this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88 degrees (average is 81). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 7-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNW 8-15 mph this morning; NW 10-17 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 8th: High 94?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very little change in the overall weather pattern is expected on Thursday. The weather system cutting across SW Canada will maintain a dry and stable westerly flow aloft over Oregon. Weak onshore low-level flow may briefly bring marine clouds inland Thursday morning, but expect another sunny and warm afternoon, with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s. NNW transport winds and good afternoon mixing may provide limited burning opportunities, if any fields are ready. An upper-level ridge is expected to rebuild over the region Friday through Sunday. Valley temperatures will likely climb back into the 90s. The flow aloft will back from westerly to more southerly, which will increase the threat of afternoon and evening thundershowers. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 9 11:52:39 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 11:52:39 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED JUL 9, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak weather system cutting across SW Canada is flattening the upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest and shifting the feed of monsoonal moisture into eastern Oregon. Scattered showers and thundershowers will develop this afternoon near the Idaho border, but skies will remain sunny across western and central Oregon, with the exception of low marine clouds along sections of the coast. The air aloft is still quite warm, so high temperatures will only back off into the upper 80s today. Daytime heating should lift mixing heights to near 5000 feet later this afternoon, but increasing north to NW transport winds may be too strong and too northerly to allow for the burning of fields. PIBALS are scheduled to begin at 1 p.m. to monitor the low-level winds. Surface pressure gradients are onshore from Newport to Redmond but not yet favorably stacked to keep smoke elevated. Continued surface heating may turn gradients more favorable for burning this afternoon. Another potential limiting factor for burning today will be the increasing wildfire risk. Relative humidity values are already below 50% and may drop below 30% by late this afternoon. The combination of low humidity values and increasing winds may put sections of the Willamette Valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions later this afternoon, for the third straight day. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and only slightly cooler this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88 degrees (average is 81). Relative humidity: Dropping to near or below 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNW 7-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNW 10-17 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 8th: High 94?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 85) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Only minor changes in the overall weather pattern are expected on Thursday. The weather system cutting across SW Canada will maintain a dry and stable westerly flow aloft over Oregon. Weak onshore low-level flow may briefly bring marine clouds inland Thursday morning, but expect another sunny and warm afternoon, with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s. Daytime mixing will be good, but afternoon transport winds are forecast to revert back to northerly, which is not favorable for burning. An upper-level ridge is expected to rebuild over the region Friday through Sunday. Valley temperatures will likely climb back into the 90s. Low-level winds may turn northwesterly again Friday afternoon, but the threat of thundershowers will need to be closely monitored, as the flow aloft backs from weak westerly to southerly. The chance of thundershowers continues through the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 10 08:48:58 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 08:48:58 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU JUL 10, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Flat upper level ridge is over the state today with minor changes from yesterday. An influx of marine air last night brought low clouds into the Coast Range, and through the Columbia River into the Portland area this morning. Current pressure gradients are +2.2 mb from Newport to Salem and +2.6 mb from Salem to Redmond. This marine air brought several degrees of cooling to the morning temperatures with the Salem low at 53 degrees, down from 62 yesterday morning. Flat ridge will remain in place this afternoon with weak southerly flow aloft beginning to move into the southern part of the state this afternoon. This will likely produce some thunderstorms to the south which will eventually spread northward by this weekend. Expect another sunny and very warm day as the marine low clouds quickly dissipate. Wind flow will be northerly through the day with flow not turning northwesterly until after 6 p.m. Mixing remains low until heating in the mid to late afternoon eventually lifts the mixing height to near 4500 ft. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87 degrees (average is 81). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 9 a.m. and dropping to near or below 30% by 4 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 5 - 10 mph this morning increasing to northerly at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Northerly at 5 - 8 mph during the morning increasing to northerly at 8 - 13 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Morning below 2500 ft, rising to near 3000 by 2 p.m. and to 4500 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 9th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 67) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridge starts building over the state and to the east this Friday and through the weekend. Temperatures increase into the 90s and the chance of thunderstorms increase over the region and to the east. Low level wind flow becomes somewhat variable on Friday but potentially could go SW'erly for a brief period Friday afternoon for a potential burn opportunity. Low level wind flow will likely turn back to mainly northerly over the weekend. Little change in the mixing height pattern through the period. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 10 11:47:08 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 11:47:08 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU JUL 10, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Flat upper level ridge is over the state today with minor changes from yesterday. Marine low clouds have dissipated and are moving away from the coast. Current pressure gradients are +2.2 mb from Newport to Salem and +2.9 mb from Salem to Redmond. Current mixing height is about 2500 ft with consistent light north winds. Flat ridge will remain in place this afternoon with weak southerly flow aloft beginning to move into the southern part of the state this afternoon. This will likely produce some thunderstorms to the south which will eventually spread northward by this weekend. Expect northerly flow through the afternoon then turning NW'erly after 6 p.m. Maximum mixing height near 4500 ft. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87 degrees (average is 81). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 8 - 15 mph. Transport winds: Northerly at 8 - 13 mph. Mixing height: Rises to near 3000 ft by 2 p.m. and to 4500 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 9th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 67) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridge starts building over the state this Friday and through the weekend. Temperatures increase into the mid-90s and the chance of thunderstorms increase over the Willamette Valley and to the east. Low level wind flow becomes somewhat variable on Friday but potentially could go SW'erly for a brief period Friday afternoon for a potential burn opportunity. Low level wind flow will likely turn back to northerly over the weekend. Little change in the mixing height pattern. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 11 08:56:16 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 08:56:16 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 11, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 1 p.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest this morning with light southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. At the surface, very weak onshore flow forced low clouds onto the coast this morning but will very little penetration east of the coast range. Winds are light in the Willamette Valley with mainly just some high clouds. The air mass has warmed since Thursday with valley temperatures running a few degrees higher than 24 hours ago. An upper-level disturbance off the northern California coast will turn the flow aloft more southerly this afternoon. Increasing mid and high level moisture will combine with daytime heating to make the air mass more unstable. Thundershowers will likely spread northward along the Cascades and could make their way over the Willamette Valley by late today. These storms have the potential to turn both the pressure gradients and transport winds unfavorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy this morning. Increasing clouds and quite warm this afternoon with a chance of evening thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 92 degrees (average is 81). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 50% by 11 a.m. to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light this morning; NW 5 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Light and variable this morning; NW 3-7 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 1 p.m. and to near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 10th: High 90?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 28) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is expected to strengthen over the region through early next week. Valley temperatures will likely warm into the mid to upper 90s with a continued threat of thundershowers, especially Sunday afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 11 11:53:13 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 11:53:13 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 11, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is strengthening over the Pacific Northwest with weak southwesterly flow aloft over NW Oregon. At the surface, weak onshore flow forced low clouds onto the coast this morning but with little penetration east of the coast range. By midday, the low clouds had backed off to just along the immediate coastline. Under mostly sunny skies, Willamette Valley temperatures are 4-8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, and winds are light. An upper-level disturbance off the northern California coast is circulating considerable moisture and instability across southern Oregon. Radar and surface reports indicate widespread mostly light shower activity south of about Roseburg. Daytime heating will make the air mass more unstable, so thundershower development is likely this afternoon across SW and south-central Oregon. The upper-level winds are forecast to turn from SW to SE this afternoon, which will help to draw moisture from southern Oregon northward into the region. Increasing clouds should cap temperatures in the Willamette Valley in the low 90s but may also develop into late-afternoon and evening thundershowers. These storms have the potential to turn both the pressure gradients and transport winds unfavorable for burning later this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Increasing clouds and quite warm. Chance of evening thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 92 degrees (average is 81). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 2-6 mph but locally gusty and variable near thundershowers. Transport winds: NW 3-7 mph but stronger and variable near thundershowers. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 1 p.m. and to near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 10th: High 90?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 28) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is expected to amplify over the Pacific Northwest this weekend. South to SE flow aloft will increase the available moisture and instability for afternoon and evening thundershower development, especially on Sunday, when locally strong to severe storms are possible. Even with very warm air aloft, considerable clouds should cap valley highs in the mid 90s and keep overnight temperatures mostly in the 60s. A drier and more stable west to NW flow aloft should push the thunderstorm threat well east of the region Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Very warm air aloft and more sunshine may help valley temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s, but overnight periods should be a little cooler. The strong upper-level ridge is forecast to begin breaking down about next Wednesday or Thursday, with a shift to a cooler onshore flow weather pattern possibly creating burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 14 08:48:48 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 08:48:48 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 14, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak low that brought thunderstorm activity to the Willamette Valley on Sunday will drift north and dissipate as the upper level ridge takes over the weather pattern today. Marine low clouds extend to a depth of about 3000 ft this morning. Current pressure gradients are +2.1 mb from Newport to Salem and +2.8 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper ridge takes back over today as modest marine layer dissipates later this morning. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s this afternoon. Surface high pressure will build to the north and drive northerly winds through the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Mixing heights will remain fairly low today with the maximum mixing height lifting to near 3500 ft. TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning low clouds with clearing during the late morning. Mostly clear this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around noon and dropping to 40 - 45 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable favoring W to N this morning increasing to northerly at 6 - 12 mph this afternoon. Winds become NW to NNW by evening. Transport winds: W to N at 3 - 7 mph during the morning increasing to northerly at 8 - 13 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Morning below 2500 ft, rising to near 3000 ft by 2 p.m. and to 3500 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 13th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .06") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 42) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridge remains strongly in place through Tuesday with clear skies and temperatures climbing into the mid 90s. Ridge begins flattening Wednesday and opening the door to W to NW winds and a potential good burn opportunity. Ridge continues to flatten through the remainder of the week with continued onshore flow during the afternoon and cooler temperatures. Maximum mixing heights improve to 4000 - 5000 ft. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 14 11:50:00 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 11:50:00 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 14, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Skies are mostly clear in the north Willamette Valley, but marine clouds are staying longer in the south Willamette Valley. Eventually, by 1 p.m. skies should be clear there as well. Current pressure gradients are +2.7 mb from Newport to Salem and +3.1 mb from Salem to Redmond. Mixing level is near 2500 ft with surface winds beginning to turn northerly. With the surface high pressure building to the north expect northerly winds to increase this afternoon but may turn NW'erly during the early evening. Temperatures still look like they're on track to reach the upper 80s, but will only lift the mixing level to near 3500 ft. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around noon and dropping to 40 - 45 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 6 - 12 mph becoming NW to NNW by evening. Transport winds: Northerly at 8 - 13 mph. Mixing height: Rising to near 3000 ft by 2 p.m. and to 3500 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 13th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .06") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 42) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper ridge remains strongly in place through Tuesday with clear skies and temperatures climbing into the mid 90s. Ridge begins flattening Wednesday and opening the door to W to NW winds and a potential good burn opportunity. Ridge continues to flatten through the remainder of the week with continued onshore flow during the afternoon and cooler temperatures. Maximum mixing heights improve to 4000 - 5000 ft. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 15 08:47:44 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 08:47:44 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 15, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge will dominate the weather today. Marine low clouds seeped into the coastal corridors and into the Portland metro area this morning, otherwise skies are clear. Current pressure gradients are +2.4 mb from Newport to Salem and -0.3 mb from Salem to Redmond. With a broad upper level ridge over the area today, temperatures should soar into the mid to upper 90s. Fire Marshal conditions for high temperatures and low humidities are very possible between 4 - 6 p.m. Expect northerly flow through the Willamette Valley. Mixing heights will remain fairly low most of the day with maximum mixing getting no higher than 4000 ft despite strong heating. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear, sunny and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 96 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and dropping to 25 - 30 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 3 - 7 mph this morning increasing to northerly at 5 - 10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N to NNE at 5 - 10 mph during the morning increasing to N to NNE at 8 - 13 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Morning below 2500 ft, rising to near 3000 ft by 2 p.m. and to 3500 - 4000 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 14th: High 92?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Ridge begins flattening Wednesday opening the door to NW winds and potential burn opportunities. High temperatures moderate from the 90s to near 80 by Friday and into the weekend. Maximum mixing heights improve to 4000 - 5000 ft. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 15 11:47:44 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 11:47:44 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 15, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge will dominate the weather today. Clear and sunny skies prevail. Current pressure gradients are +2.9 mb from Newport to Salem and -0.6 mb from Salem to Redmond. With a broad upper level ridge over the area today, temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 90s. Fire Marshal conditions for high temperatures and low humidities are likely between 4 - 6 p.m. Expect northerly flow through the Willamette Valley. Mixing heights will remain fairly low most of the day with maximum mixing getting no higher than 4000 ft despite strong heating. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear, sunny and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 97 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Dropping to 25 - 30 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 5 - 10 mph. Transport winds: N to NNE at 8 - 13 mph. Mixing height: Rising to near 3000 ft by 1 p.m. and to near 4000 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 14th: High 92?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Ridge begins flattening Wednesday opening the door for NW winds and potential burn opportunities. High temperatures moderate from the 90s to near 80 by Friday and into the weekend. Maximum mixing heights improve to 4500 - 5000 ft. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 16 08:53:59 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 08:53:59 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED JUL 16, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure, centered directly over Oregon this morning, is beginning to flatten in response to a strengthening northwesterly jet stream over the northern Gulf of Alaska. A gradual cool-down will commence today, as the surface thermal trough, which was over the Willamette Valley on Tuesday, shifts into eastern Oregon. That will allow increasing amounts of marine air to seep into western Oregon, over the next few days, cooling temperatures back to near average by Friday. Pressure gradients this morning are weakly onshore from Newport to Salem but flat from Salem to Redmond, which means that the surface thermal trough is slowly shifting east of the Willamette Valley. Marine low clouds are banked up along the entire coastline with some penetration into the coastal mountain passes and up the Columbia River. Skies are sunny in the Willamette Valley with temperatures running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. As the marine air begins filtering into the valley this afternoon, it should keep temperatures from getting quite as warm as yesterday. The air aloft is still very warm, so mixing heights will be slow to climb this afternoon. However, if the surface thermal trough shifts far enough eastward to allow for evacuation of smoke over the Cascades, and transport winds turn enough to the NW, some burning of fields may be possible. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 94?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 11 a.m. to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNW 5 mph this morning; NW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to near 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 15th: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 42) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to flatten and give way to increasing westerly flow aloft Thursday and Friday. Marine clouds will likely to penetrate into the Willamette Valley each morning with afternoon sunshine. Temperatures should cool into the mid 80s Thursday and low 80s Friday. Cooling aloft will improve afternoon mixing, with NW transport winds likely making for favorable burning conditions. One limiting factor will be the amount of gradient-stacking that will need to be overcome each afternoon. The flow aloft is forecast to turn southwesterly over the weekend, with a weak weather system possibly bringing light showers to the region and Saturday. Look for temperatures to cool to slightly below average under mostly cloudy skies. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 16 11:51:50 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 11:51:50 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED JUL 16, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A stubborn upper-level ridge of high pressure will slowly weaken this afternoon. However, the associated surface thermal trough remains anchored near the Cascade crest at midday. Pressure gradients are onshore from Newport to Salem but are still flat from Salem to Redmond. As a result, the air mass over the Willamette Valley is currently a little warmer than 24 hours ago. The surface thermal trough is forecast to shift into central Oregon this afternoon. The resultant minor influx of cooler marine air may clip a couple of degrees off of Tuesday's highs. The air aloft is still very warm, so mixing heights will be slow to climb this afternoon...likely not getting much above 3000 feet. Unless marine air begins filtering into the valley this afternoon, State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions will be approached due to high temperatures and low humidity levels. However, if the surface thermal trough shifts far enough eastward to allow marine air to penetrate into the valley, some field-burning may be possible. The first PIBAL will be at 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 94?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 2500-3500 feet from 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 15th: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 35) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to flatten and give way to increasing westerly flow aloft Thursday and Friday. Some marine clouds will likely penetrate into the Willamette Valley each morning with afternoon sunshine. Temperatures should cool into the mid 80s Thursday and low 80s Friday. Cooling aloft will improve afternoon mixing, with NW transport winds likely making for favorable burning conditions. One limiting factor will be the amount of gradient-stacking that must be overcome, before burning can begin, each afternoon. The flow aloft is forecast to turn southwesterly over the weekend. Expect mostly cloudy skies and below average temperatures, with a weak weather system possibly bringing light showers to the region. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 17 08:55:02 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 08:55:02 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU JUL 17, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The strong upper-level ridge of high pressure over the region is beginning to flatten; yielding to an increasing WNW flow aloft over Oregon. That forced the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades late Wednesday afternoon; inducing weak onshore flow into the Willamette Valley. The thermal trough is over eastern Oregon this morning, with Willamette Valley temperatures running about 8-10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The marine layer is fairly shallow across the interior of NW Oregon, with marine clouds confined to near the Columbia River. The weak surge of marine air into the valley overnight has resulted in some minor pressure-gradient-stacking this morning, but ample sunshine should reverse that by midday. Sunny skies will warm temperatures into the mid-80s this afternoon...about 10 degrees cooler than on Wednesday but still above average. Cooling aloft will significantly improve mixing heights, and NW transport winds should make for favorable burning conditions...perhaps as early as midday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny but cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% by 11 a.m. to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 3-8 mph this morning; NW 8-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:54 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 16th: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to flatten and give way to increasing westerly flow aloft on Friday. Marine clouds will likely penetrate into the Willamette Valley Friday morning, causing more significant pressure-gradient-stacking. Afternoon sunshine should help to "balance out" the onshore flow, with near average temperatures. However, transport winds are forecast to turn more northerly, which may inhibit burning chances. The flow aloft is forecast to turn southwesterly over the weekend. Expect mostly cloudy skies with temperatures cooling to slightly below average. A weak weather system may even bring a few light showers to the region. Unsettled weather is forecast to continue through early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 17 11:51:39 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 11:51:39 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT THU JUL 17, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: WNW flow aloft is continuing to strengthen over Oregon. At the surface, onshore flow is now spreading cooler across the entire state. Midday temperatures in the northern Willamette valley are about 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, but the air mass remains quite dry. Relative humidity levels have already dropped to near 50% under sunny skies. The weak overnight surge of marine air into the valley resulted in minor pressure-gradient-stacking this morning. The strong July sun is already working to "balance" the onshore flow, which should happen early this afternoon. The air aloft is forecast to continue to slowly cool this afternoon...resulting is significantly higher mixing heights compared to Wednesday. The 11 a.m. PIBAL revealed light NW winds through the transport layer, which was about 2500 feet deep. Mixing depths could increase to as much as 5000 feet by late this afternoon with some increase in the NW transport winds likely making for favorable burning conditions. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny but cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 8-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:54 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 16th: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to flatten and give way to increasing westerly flow aloft on Friday. Morning marine clouds will likely penetrate into the Willamette Valley, causing more significant pressure-gradient-stacking. Afternoon sunshine should help to "balance" the onshore flow, with near average temperatures. However, transport winds are forecast to turn mostly northerly, which is not conducive to burning. The flow aloft is forecast to turn southwesterly over the weekend; yielding mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures. A weak weather system may bring a few light showers to the region, but significant precipitation is not expected. Southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through at least early next week. Moisture is limited, so the chance of showers will be minimal. However, continued onshore flow will maintain moderate temperatures with possible burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 18 08:35:54 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 08:35:54 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:30 AM PDT FRI JUL 18, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The weather pattern has changed very little since Thursday. The strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been anchored over the region virtually all of July has flattened slightly, yielding to light NW winds aloft and a cooler onshore surface flow into western Oregon. Willamette Valley temperatures are running about 2-6 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Much like on Thursday, onshore flow is strongest near the Washington border, with winds turning progressively more northerly further south across the Willamette Valley. Marine clouds made their way up the Columbia River into the extreme north valley this morning, but otherwise skies remain clear. The weak surge of marine air into the valley overnight has resulted in some minor pressure-gradient-stacking again this morning, but rapid daytime heating should "balance" the gradients by early this afternoon. Sunny skies will warm temperatures into the mid-80s this afternoon...only a couple of degrees cooler than on Thursday. Cooler air aloft will provide high mixing heights, but mostly northerly transport winds will limit burning opportunities. The air mass remains very dry, so State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions may be reached late this afternoon, much like what happened on Thursday, due to low humidity and increasing wind. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% by 11 a.m. to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph this morning; N 10-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to near 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 17th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The flow aloft is forecast to turn westerly on Saturday and southwesterly on Sunday. Skies should remain mostly sunny on Saturday, but a weak cold front should spread clouds and cooler conditions across the region Sunday, with a chance of sprinkles or light showers. However, significant precipitation is not expected. Southwesterly flow aloft will likely maintain mostly cloudy skies on Monday with onshore flow possibly creating a burning opportunity. Long-range computer models are showing a stronger upper-level trough moving onshore Tuesday, with the threat of showers across the region. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 18 12:12:51 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 12:12:51 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 18, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon brought some morning clouds up the Columbia River and into the extreme northern Willamette Valley. Otherwise sunny skies will prevail again this afternoon. Willamette Valley temperatures are running about 2-4 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Much like on Thursday, onshore flow is strongest near the Washington border, with winds turning progressively more northerly further across the Willamette Valley. Onshore flow has weakened along the coast, where skies have also turned sunny. That is maintaining poor pressure-gradient-stacking this morning, which may not "balance" until late this afternoon. Sunny skies will warm temperatures into the mid-80s today. Cooler air aloft will provide high mixing heights, but transport winds should remain generally northerly. The air mass is still very dry, so State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions may be reached later this afternoon, due to low humidity and increasing northerly winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to at or below 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to at or above 5000 from 2 p.m. through 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 17th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The flow aloft is forecast to turn more westerly on Saturday. Skies should turn partly cloudy with near average temperatures. On Sunday, the flow aloft will turn southwesterly, with a weak cold front bringing more clouds, cooler temperatures, and a threat of morning drizzle or very light showers. However, significant precipitation is not expected. Southwesterly flow aloft will likely maintain mostly cloudy skies on Monday with onshore flow possibly creating a burning opportunity. Long-range computer models are showing a stronger upper-level trough moving onshore Tuesday and Wednesday; possibly bringing more significant shower activity into the region. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 18 11:50:41 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 11:50:41 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 18, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon brought some morning clouds up the Columbia River and into the extreme northern Willamette Valley. Otherwise sunny skies will prevail again this afternoon. Willamette Valley temperatures are running about 2-4 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Much like on Thursday, onshore flow is strongest near the Washington border, with winds turning progressively more northerly further across the Willamette Valley. Onshore flow has weakened along the coast, where skies have also turned sunny. That is maintaining poor pressure-gradient-stacking this morning, which may not "balance" until late this afternoon. Sunny skies will warm temperatures into the mid-80s today. Cooler air aloft will provide high mixing heights, but transport winds should remain generally northerly. The air mass is still very dry, so State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions may be reached later this afternoon, due to low humidity and increasing northerly winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to at or below 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to at or above 5000 from 2 p.m. through 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 17th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The flow aloft is forecast to turn more westerly on Saturday. Skies should turn partly cloudy with near average temperatures. On Sunday, the flow aloft will turn southwesterly, with a weak cold front bringing more clouds, cooler temperatures, and a threat of morning drizzle or very light showers. However, significant precipitation is not expected. Southwesterly flow aloft will likely maintain mostly cloudy skies on Monday with onshore flow possibly creating a burning opportunity. Long-range computer models are showing a stronger upper-level trough moving onshore Tuesday and Wednesday; possibly bringing more significant shower activity into the region. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 21 08:48:58 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 08:48:58 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 21, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level low is off northern Vancouver Island this morning. It is currently swinging another frontal band into the state, mainly to the south. Morning radar is showing scattered light moisture to the south of Eugene. A combination of higher and lower clouds are moving into the area from the southwest. Current pressure gradients are +1.3 mb from Newport to Salem and +2.1 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper low will slowly move toward the state today keeping skies mostly cloudy. Sprinkles or a light shower are also possible today. The amount of cloud cover that stays through the day will determine the high temperatures but models are forecasting near 80F. With more afternoon heating to the east, expect the gradient stacking to shift to west of the Willamette Valley and gradually turn wind flow more northwesterly from northerly this morning. Cloud cover will keep mixing levels fairly low until the afternoon hours. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (average is 83). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by noon and dropping to 40 - 45 percent around 5 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 4 - 7 mph this morning becoming NW to N 5 - 10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N to NNE at 5 - 10 mph during the morning becoming to WNW to NNW at 5 - 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Morning below 2500 ft, rising to near 3000 ft by 1 p.m. and to 4500 - 5000 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:50 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 14th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level low moves closer to the state tomorrow with shower activity potentially increasing during the afternoon hours. Wind flow looks like it will turn westerly sooner than today opening up a burn opportunity if moisture doesn't arrive too soon. Low eventually moves into the state Wednesday bringing more showers and probably wetting fields. Flat ridge will follow on Thursday and Friday bringing drying and warming. Wind flow will likely turn northerly. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 21 11:52:13 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 11:52:13 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 21, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level low is northwest of Vancouver Island this morning. It is currently swinging another frontal band into the state, mainly to the south. Radar is showing scattered light moisture to the south of Eugene. Clouds continue to stream in from the southwest. Current pressure gradients are +1.7 mb from Newport to Salem and +2.0 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper low will slowly move toward the state today keeping skies mostly cloudy. Moisture appears to be dissipating as it moves into northern Lane County so not really expecting any afternoon moisture in the northern Willamette Valley. Gradient stacking is starting to shift and should continue. This will likely give some burn opportunities this afternoon. Cloud cover will keep mixing levels fairly low until the afternoon hours. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (average is 83). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 40 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 5 - 10 mph becoming NW to NNW 5 - 10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: Northerly early, becoming to WNW to NNW at 5 - 10 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 3000 ft by 1 p.m. and to 4500 - 5000 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:50 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 14th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level low moves closer to the state tomorrow with shower activity potentially increasing during the afternoon hours. Wind flow looks like it will turn westerly sooner than today opening up a burn opportunity if moisture doesn't arrive too soon. Low eventually moves into the state Wednesday bringing more showers and probably wetting fields. Flat ridge will follow on Thursday and Friday bringing drying and warming. Wind flow will likely turn northerly. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 22 08:48:00 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 08:48:00 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 22, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, centered just off the northern Vancouver Island coast, is producing a moist southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. The first band of measurable precipitation since July 13th moved across the northern Willamette Valley early this morning. The Salem Airport recorded one-tenth of an inch, with reports of up to one-quarter of an inch in the foothills east of Salem. Radar is showing a general decrease in shower activity across the northern valley at mid-morning, but skies remain cloudy across virtually all of western Oregon. Slightly cooler air aloft and more cloud-cover should continue the recent cooling trend, with temperatures only climbing into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. The air mass will remain moist and unstable enough for scattered showers. Additional rainfall totals should be mostly less than one-tenth of an inch. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Scattered showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by noon and to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5 mph this morning; SW 5 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 5-10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 21st: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A potent upper-level trough will approach the Oregon coast on Wednesday, which will increase the moisture and instability over the region. Expect widespread showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Rainfall totals will vary but should be on the order of one-quarter to one-half of an inch. Temperatures will only reach the low to mid 70s. Showers may linger through Thursday morning, followed by a drying and warming trend into the weekend. Temperatures will recover into the upper 70s Thursday afternoon and into the mid 80s on Friday. Expect sunny and quite warm conditions Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the low 90s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 22 11:56:18 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 11:56:18 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT TUE JUL 22, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The light rain that moved through sections of the northern Willamette Valley this morning has progressed east of the region. Satellite imagery shows a band of clouds, about 200 miles wide, extending from north-central Oregon to over the southern Oregon coast. Radar is indicating some light showers continuing under that cloud-shield, which is pushing just east of the northern Willamette Valley at midday. In its wake, some clearing is evident along the northern and central coast, which should move over the valley this afternoon. However, an unseasonably strong upper-level trough remains parked offshore, with an increasing moist and unstable southwesterly flow aloft over the region. Slightly cooler air aloft and more cloud-cover should continue the recent cooling trend, with temperatures only climbing into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. The threat of showers will continue this afternoon, but the next significant surge of moisture is not expected to come onshore until Wednesday. Additional rainfall totals today should be light, if any. Southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights are expected this afternoon, if any fields become dry enough for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly sunny but slightly cooler. Chance of a shower. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data: Rainfall So Far Today: .10") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A potent upper-level trough will approach the Oregon coast on Wednesday, which will increase the moisture and instability over the region. Expect widespread showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Rainfall totals will vary but should be on the order of one-quarter to one-half of an inch. Temperatures will only reach the low to mid 70s. Showers may linger through Thursday morning, followed by a drying and warming trend into the weekend. Temperatures will recover into the upper 70s Thursday afternoon and into the mid 80s on Friday. Expect sunny and quite warm conditions Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the low 90s. The ridge is forecast to weaken next week, with possible burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 23 08:56:11 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 08:56:11 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED JUL 23, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 8 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An unseasonably strong upper-level trough, just off the Oregon and Washington coast, will continue to circulate bands of showers across the region today. One potent line of showers already traversed the Willamette Valley this morning, dropping about one-tenth of an inch of rain at the Salem Airport. Daytime heating will increase the instability over the region, leading to a chance of thundershowers this afternoon. Some storms could produce small hail. Rainfall totals will vary but should generally be from one-quarter to one-half of an inch or greater. Temperatures will only reach the lower 70s. TODAY'S FORECAST: Showers and unseasonably cool. Chance of thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 2 p.m. and to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; SSW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 15-20 mph this morning; SW 17-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to above 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:48 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 22nd: High 76?F; Rainfall: .11") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 150) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Showers may linger into Thursday morning, followed by a drying and warming trend into the weekend. With clearing skies, temperatures will recover into the upper 70s Thursday afternoon and into the mid 80s on Friday. Expect sunny and quite warm conditions Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the low 90s. Increasing southerly flow aloft may circulated enough mid and high level monsoonal moisture and instability into the region for thundershower development by Sunday evening. The upper-level ridge axis is forecast to shift slightly east, to over Idaho, early next week. South to SW flow aloft will maintain a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The ridge is forecast to shift further east by the middle of next week. SW flow aloft and onshore low-level winds may be strong enough to push the thundershower threat east of Cascades and possibly create burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 23 11:54:28 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 11:54:28 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT WED JUL 23, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An unseasonably strong upper-level trough is just off the Oregon and Washington coast, with an autumn-like cold front moving onshore at midday. The cloud-shield from this system extends across all of western Washington and western Oregon and is slowly advancing east of the Cascades. Rain has been falling much of the morning across the Willamette Valley. The Salem Airport has received .15" so far today. Radar echoes indicate that rainfall totals have likely been even greater in the Cascade foothills. Due to the thick clouds over the region and cool air aloft, daytime heating has been minimal. Midday temperatures are only in the low 60s, which decreases the chances for thunderstorms in association with the cold front. The cold front should push east of the valley by late this afternoon, with a general let-up of the steady rain. In its wake, cool and unstable air will maintain a treat of showers and a chance of thundershowers. Small hail and gusty winds are also possible. Some showers will likely linger overnight. TODAY'S FORECAST: Showers and unseasonably cool. Chance of thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 68?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Staying near or above 60% all afternoon Surface winds: SSW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 17-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to above 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:48 p.m. (Salem Airport Data So far Today: High 64?F; Rainfall: .11") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 150) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Showers may linger into Thursday morning, followed by a drying and warming trend into the weekend. With clearing skies, temperatures will recover into the upper 70s Thursday afternoon and into the mid 80s on Friday. Expect sunny and quite warm conditions Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the low 90s. Increasing southerly flow aloft may circulated enough mid and high level monsoonal moisture and instability into the region for thundershower development by Sunday evening. The upper-level ridge axis is forecast to shift slightly east, to over Idaho, early next week. South to SW flow aloft will maintain a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The ridge is forecast to shift further east by the middle of next week. SW flow aloft and onshore low-level winds may be strong enough to push the thundershower threat east of Cascades and possibly create burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 24 08:50:08 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 08:50:08 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU JUL 24, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 8 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The strong upper-level trough that generally dumped between one-quarter and one-half inch of rain across the northern Willamette Valley on Wednesday is rapidly moving east of the region. A few lingering showers this morning should give way to clearing skies this afternoon. Brisk southerly surface winds will slowly relax and veer to the NW in the afternoon. Very cool air aloft will provide excellent mixing but also maintain at least partly cloudy skies. Even with some sunshine, temperatures will remain well below average. TODAY'S FORECAST: Showers tapering off with afternoon clearing. Continued unseasonably cool. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 10 mph this morning; shifting to NW 5-10 by late afternoon. Transport winds: SW 15-20 mph; shifting to NW 10-15 mph by late afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet throughout the afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:47 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 23rd: High 68?F; Rainfall: .26") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A drying and warming trend will continue into the weekend, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds over the western US. With mostly clear skies, temperatures will recover into the low 80s on Friday, then warm into the upper 80s on Saturday and low 90s on Sunday. The axis of the upper-level ridge is forecast to set-up over Idaho and Montana. Increasing southerly flow aloft may circulate enough mid and high level monsoonal moisture and instability over Oregon for thundershower development as early as Sunday evening...including west of the Cascades. Very little change in the overall weather pattern is predicted though next week. South to SW flow aloft will maintain a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms with above normal temperatures. The main upper-level ridge axis is now predicted to stay close enough to the region to limit onshore flow into western Oregon; reducing the chance of burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 24 11:30:10 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 11:30:10 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT THU JUL 24, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The strong upper-level trough that brought considerable rain to the northern Willamette Valley the past two days is rapidly moving eastward, with a drier westerly flow aloft developing over Oregon. A few lingering light showers over the region late this morning should give way to slow clearing this afternoon. Brisk southerly surface winds will slowly veer to the west during the afternoon; aiding the drying of fields. Even with some sunbreaks, temperatures will remain well below average. TODAY'S FORECAST: Light showers ending with partial clearing. Continued unseasonably cool. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-15 mph; Becoming W 5-15 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 15 mph; Becoming WNW 15 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:47 p.m. (Salem Airport data so far today: High 64?F; Rainfall: .03") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A drying and warming trend will continue through this weekend, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds over the western US. After areas of morning clouds, afternoon sunshine will lift temperatures in the low 80s on Friday. Highs will warm into the upper 80s on Saturday and low 90s on Sunday, under sunny skies. Mostly northerly surface winds will aid in the drying of fields. However, increasing southerly flow aloft may circulate enough monsoonal moisture northward over Oregon for thundershower development as early as Sunday evening...including west of the Cascades. Very little change in the overall weather pattern is predicted though next week. A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will stay anchored over the Rockies with a south to SW flow aloft over Oregon. That will keep skies mostly sunny with well above normal temperatures. It will also maintain a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Onshore flow will be restricted mainly to the immediate coastline; reducing burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 25 08:52:56 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 08:52:56 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 25, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The strong upper-level trough that brought unseasonably damp and cool weather to NW Oregon the past three days has moved east of the region; replaced by a drier westerly flow aloft and northerly low-level winds. Patchy morning clouds should quickly give way to sunshine today. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer, compared to Thursday, but still slightly below average. The air aloft is still cooler than average, so daytime heating will yield excelling mixing depths this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Patchy morning clouds, then sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNW 5-10 mph this morning; N 8-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 24th: High 71?F; Rainfall: .03") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A drying and warming trend will continue this weekend, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds over the western US. Sunny skies will help temperatures warm into the mid 80s on Saturday and to near 90 on Sunday. Mostly northerly surface winds will aid in the drying of fields. However, increasing southerly flow aloft may circulate enough monsoonal moisture northward over Oregon for thundershower development by Sunday evening. Very little change in the overall weather pattern is predicted though next week. A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will stay anchored over the Rockies with a south to SW flow aloft over Oregon. That will keep skies mostly sunny with well above normal temperatures. It will also maintain a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Onshore flow will be restricted mainly to the immediate coastline; reducing burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 25 11:51:00 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 11:51:00 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 25, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Patchy marine clouds quickly cleared from the valley this morning. By midday, sunny skies had already helped temperatures climb to 3-7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. High temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than on Thursday but still slightly below average. Northerly winds should increase this afternoon, which will aid in the drying of damp fields. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 7-15 mph. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 4000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A drying and warming trend will continue this weekend, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds over the western US. Sunny skies will help temperatures warm into the mid 80s on Saturday and to near 90 on Sunday. Northerly surface winds will continue to aid in the drying of fields. By Sunday, southerly flow aloft will begin circulating monsoonal moisture northward over Oregon. Very little change in that pattern is predicted though next week, as a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure builds over the Rockies. As the week progresses, both the humidity and the threat of thundershowers will increase. High temperatures should be mostly in the low to mid 90s. Onshore flow will be minimal; reducing burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 28 08:40:45 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 08:40:45 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 28, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge extends over the state with axis over Idaho. Weak marine layer is along the coast with just minor inland penetration. Otherwise skies are clear. Current pressure gradients are +2.1 mb from Newport to Salem and -.5 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper air sounding shows a deep stable layer with generally north to northeast winds at 5 - 10 mph to 5000 ft. Little change today with the high pressure ridge remaining anchored in place to the east. With weak southerly flow aloft, some thunderstorms will possibly develop east of the Cascade crest and prevent much gradient stacking from Salem to Redmond during the afternoon hours. In general, expect mostly northerly flow through the day with just a minor marine influx this evening. Skies will remain clear and temperatures fairly hot, getting into the low 90s. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 93 degrees (average is 84). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 10 a.m. and dropping to 25 - 28 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 4 - 7 mph increasing to northerly at 6 - 12 mph this afternoon, NW to NNW this evening. Transport winds: N to NNE at 5 - 10 mph during the morning becoming mostly northerly at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Morning below 2000 ft, rising to near 2500 ft by 1 p.m. and to 3000 - 3500 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:43 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 27th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 42) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change in the upper level ridge pattern through the week with maybe a slightly weakening of the ridge and a little more NW to NNW flow during the late afternoon to evening hours. Expect very summerlike conditions with high temperatures reaching near 90 throughout the week. Thunderstorms are likely to increase over the Cascades and through eastern Oregon. Expect at best marginal burning conditions. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 28 11:48:51 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 11:48:51 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 28, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge extends over the state with axis over Idaho. Current pressure gradients are +2.5 mb from Newport to Salem and 0.0 mb from Salem to Redmond. Temperatures are running about 4 to 5 degrees above yesterday's readings. Wind flow this morning has been mostly N to NE at 5 - 8 mph. Little change today with the high pressure ridge remaining anchored in place to the east. With weak southerly flow aloft, some thunderstorms will possibly develop east of the Cascade crest and limit much gradient stacking from Salem to Redmond during the afternoon hours. In general, expect mostly northerly flow through the day with just a minor marine influx this evening. Skies will remain clear and temperatures fairly hot, getting into the low 90s. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 93 degrees (average is 84). Relative humidity: Dropping to 25 - 28 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 6 - 12 mph this afternoon, NW to NNW this evening. Transport winds: Mostly northerly at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 2500 ft by 1 p.m. and to 3000 - 3500 ft by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:43 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 27th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 42) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change in the upper level ridge pattern through the week with maybe a slightly weakening of the ridge and a little more NW to NNW flow during the late afternoon to evening hours. Expect very summerlike conditions with high temperatures reaching near 90 throughout the week. Thunderstorms are likely to increase over the Cascades and through eastern Oregon. Expect at best marginal burning conditions. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 29 08:49:04 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 08:49:04 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 29, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: ...State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions may be reached late this afternoon due to high temperatures and low humidity... Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge is centered over the Rockies with a warm SW flow aloft over Oregon. A surface thermal trough extends from eastern Washington through central and SW Oregon. That is allowing weak onshore flow to bring marine clouds onto the coast, but skies are sunny across the interior of NW Oregon this morning. Monsoonal moisture is flowing northward over Oregon, and isolated thunderstorms were already evident this morning over the Cascades. These storms will continue to develop and expand in coverage today but should stay east of the valley. However, they will act to keep pressures higher over the Cascades, which will inhibit onshore flow this afternoon. Salem's upper-air sounding today was very similar to Monday, so temperatures should track very closely to what we saw yesterday...likely topping out in the low to mid 90s. Transport winds should be mostly northerly. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Scattered thunderstorms over the Cascades. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 11 a.m. to below 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 8-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:42 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 28th: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very little change in the overall weather pattern is predicted this week. A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will stay anchored over the Rockies with a south to SW flow aloft over Oregon. That will keep skies mostly sunny with well above normal temperatures. It will also maintain a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms...mainly over the Cascades. Onshore flow will be generally weak but could provide limited burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 29 11:45:34 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 11:45:34 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 29, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: ...State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions may be reached late this afternoon due to high temperatures and low humidity... Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge is centered over the Rockies with a warm SW flow aloft over Oregon. A surface thermal trough extends from eastern Washington through central and SW Oregon. Weak onshore flow is bringing marine clouds onto virtually the entire coastal strip but with little inland penetration. Monsoonal moisture is flowing northward over mainly eastern Oregon, but a very weak upper-level disturbance was continuing to generate isolated thunderstorms over the central Cascades and north-central Oregon at midday. These storms will continue to develop and slowly migrate northward this afternoon. There is a risk that SE mid-level winds could develop and steer storms over the Willamette Valley this evening and/or tonight. Onshore pressure gradients are weak (Newport to Salem 3.4 mb), especially from Salem to Redmond (1.2 mb). Transport winds are forecast to remain northerly this afternoon, but an increase in onshore flow could turn winds slightly northwesterly, which would be more favorable for burning. A PIBAL is scheduled for 3 p.m. There are several limiting factors for burning today. Warm air just above the surface will make for reducing mixing depths, thundershower development over the Cascades is problematic for good smoke evacuation, and hot surface temperatures may put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Scattered thunderstorms over the Cascades. Risk of a thunderstorm over the valley late. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to below 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:42 p.m. (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very little change in the overall weather pattern is predicted this week. A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will stay anchored over the Rockies with a south to SW flow aloft over Oregon. That will keep skies mostly sunny with well above normal temperatures. It will also maintain a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms...mainly over the Cascades. Very weak onshore flow could provide limited burning opportunities. A change to more favorable patterns for burning is forecast for next week, as the ridge weakens and allows for slightly more onshore flow. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 30 08:49:39 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 08:49:39 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED JUL 30, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: There has been little change in the weather pattern since Tuesday. A strong upper-level ridge remains centered over the Rockies with a warm SW flow aloft over Oregon. A surface thermal trough still extends from eastern Washington through SW Oregon. Very weak onshore has forced marine clouds onto the coast, but skies are mostly sunny across the interior of NW Oregon. Weak upper-air disturbances are acting on the mid-level monsoonal moisture over the state to trigger clusters of thunderstorms. The system that brought thunderstorms to the central Cascades on Tuesday is exiting the NE corner of Oregon this morning. However, another upper-air disturbance, approaching the southern Oregon coast this morning, will likely trigger thunderstorm development over the Cascades again this afternoon. There is an outside chance that SE flow aloft could develop enough to steer storms over the Willamette Valley, but they are generally expected to stay over the Cascades. Salem's upper-air sounding today showed a few degrees of cooling in the layer below about 12,000 feet, so high temperatures should back off to around 90 degrees this afternoon. NE transport winds this morning should veer to more northerly this afternoon, with burning opportunities unlikely. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Scattered thunderstorms over the Cascades. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by noon & to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 8-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10 mph this morning; NNE 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:41 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 29th: High 94?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very little change in the overall weather pattern is predicted this week. A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will stay anchored over the Rockies with a south to SW flow aloft over Oregon. That will keep skies mostly sunny with well above normal temperatures. It will also maintain a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms...mainly over the Cascades. Very weak onshore flow could provide limited burning opportunities. A change to more favorable patterns for burning is forecast for next week, as the ridge weakens and allows for slightly more onshore flow. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 30 11:54:38 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 11:54:38 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED JUL 30, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A warm southwesterly flow aloft is periodically sending weak upper-air disturbances across the state; triggering clusters of thunderstorms. One system brought numerous thunderstorms to the central Cascades on Tuesday, but the next system, currently over SW Oregon, does not have as much moisture associated with it and has yet to trigger any storms today. Skies remain generally clear across western Oregon at midday, with the exception of patchy low clouds along the coastal strip. There is very weak onshore flow into the Willamette Valley, where temperatures are running about 2-4 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Highs this afternoon should top out near 90 degrees. A PIBAL is scheduled for 3 p.m. to monitor the transport winds, which are expected to be predominantly northerly this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. A few thunderstorms developing over the Cascades. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph. Transport winds: N 15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:41 p.m. (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will stay anchored over the Rockies with a south to SW flow aloft over Oregon. That will keep skies mostly sunny with well above normal temperatures. It will also maintain a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms...mainly over the Cascades. There is a chance that the flow aloft will turn enough southeasterly to push storms over the Willamette Valley. Very weak onshore flow could provide limited burning opportunities. A change to more favorable patterns for burning is forecast for next week, as the ridge weakens and allows for slightly more onshore flow. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 31 08:51:03 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 08:51:03 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU JUL 31, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions may be reached late this afternoon. Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge is centered over Idaho with a warm SW flow aloft over Oregon. A surface thermal trough still extends from eastern Washington through SW Oregon with very weak onshore flow into the Willamette Valley. Weak upper-air disturbances are acting on mid-level monsoonal moisture over the state to trigger clusters of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms are still active this morning across central Oregon, and more will develop this afternoon along the thermal trough axis, from SW to NE Oregon. There is an outside chance that SE winds aloft could develop and steer storms over the Willamette Valley. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny and dry conditions. Salem's sounding showed a couple degrees warming aloft compared to 24 hours ago, so expect high temperatures to climb to back into the mid-90s today. NNE transport winds and the potential for State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions do not favor burning today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and hot. Afternoon thunderstorms over the Cascades. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 11 a.m. and below 30% by 4 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph this morning; NNE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:39 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 30th: High 93?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored just east of the state through early next week. That will maintain a warm south to SW flow aloft over Oregon, with continued above normal temperatures and scattered thunderstorms from the Cascades eastward. There is a risk of a thunderstorm moving over the Willamette Valley. The upper-level ridge is forecast to weaken slightly during the second half of next week. Increasing onshore flow will likely cool temperatures back closer to average and push the thunderstorm threat well east of the region. Afternoon transport winds may take on more of a westerly component, which would also open the door for burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 31 11:53:16 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 11:53:16 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT THU JUL 31, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions may be reached this afternoon. Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Southwesterly flow aloft is feeding weak upper-air disturbances across Oregon; triggering clusters of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The daily focus of these storms has been along a nearly stationary thermal trough axis, extending from SW Oregon to north-central Oregon, and well east of the Willamette Valley. However, today's convective activity is beginning further west, across SW Oregon. It is not impossible that some thundershower activity could make its way over the Willamette Valley this evening. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny and hot conditions this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and hot. Afternoon thunderstorms over the Cascades with a risk of an evening thunderstorm over the valley. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to below 30% by 4 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-15 mph. Transport winds: NNE 15-20 mph. Mixing height: Rising only to near 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:39 p.m. (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored just east of the state through early next week. That will maintain a warm south to SW flow aloft over Oregon, with continued above normal temperatures and scattered thunderstorms from the Cascades eastward. There will continue to be a risk of a valley thunderstorm through the weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to weaken slightly during the second half of next week. Increasing onshore flow will likely cool temperatures back closer to average and push the thunderstorm threat east of the region. Afternoon transport winds may take on more of a westerly component; leading to possible burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33280 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: