[willamette-fcst] Test Silverton Hills AM Forecast.doc

[Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast]

SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE

8:55 AM PDT WED JUL 2, 2014



...TEST MESSAGE...  ...CONTENT VALID...  ...TEST MESSAGE...  ...CONTENT VALID...



BURN ADVISORY:



Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m.



WEATHER DISCUSSION:



An upper-level disturbance moved onshore overnight and is producing mostly cloudy skies this morning over the northern Willamette Valley and thunderstorms over the Cascades.  The strong surface thermal trough that brought near 100 degree heat to the region on Tuesday has moved into central Oregon with cooler onshore flow expected today west of the Cascades.



The air aloft has cooled significantly since yesterday, so mixing should be good this afternoon with increasing NW surface and transport winds.



TODAY'S FORECAST:



Mostly cloudy this morning with a risk of a shower.  Partly cloudy this afternoon.  Cooler.



Salem's high temperature today will be near 83 degrees (average is 79).

Relative humidity:  Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to 37% by 5 p.m.

Surface winds: NW 5 mph this morning; NW 7-15 mph this afternoon.

Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon.

Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to above 5000 feet after 5 p.m.

Salem's sunset tonight: 9:02 p.m.



(Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 1st: High 99°F; Rainfall: .00")

(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90)



EXTENDED DISCUSSION:



A dry and stable southwesterly flow aloft will continue Thursday and Friday.  Low-level onshore flow will maintain seasonal temperatures with generally NW transport winds and good afternoon mixing.



The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text



Notes:



     1.  Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the

         potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the

         surface.  As a practical matter it is the approximate height to

         which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels,

         and winds less than about 15 mph.



     2.  Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height,

         weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.



     3.  Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times

         the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.



     4.  Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction.

         At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local

         terrain conditions.



This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department

of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF).  For

information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.



To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to:



http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst



Pete Parsons

ODF Meteorologist
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