From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 2 08:43:30 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 2 Sep 2014 08:43:30 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE SEP 2, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough is dropping over the state today from the northwest. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy this morning with marine low clouds mostly along the east side of the Willamette Valley. Morning sounding shows low level wind flow from the NNW to NNE at 5 - 15 mph up to 4000 ft, and NW'erly above. Surface high pressure is to the north with favorable pressure gradients at +2.2 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.2 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level trough will continue to drop southward over the state today. Marine low clouds will dissipate this morning but clouds will increase this afternoon as the trough and cold front move in. Moisture, if any, will not likely begin until this evening. This front will kick off a marine push with winds shifting from northerly this morning to NW'erly this afternoon. Mixing height will reach 3000 ft around noon and lift to 5000 ft by mid-afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clearing this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77 degrees (average is 80). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent around 11 a.m. drop to near 40 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: N to NNW at 5 - 10 mph this morning increasing to WNW to NW at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N at 5 - 12 mph this morning shifting to NW'erly at 10 - 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 ft around noon, rising above 5000 ft by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:47 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, Sept. 1: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge quickly moves in behind today's trough and cold front with clearing skies tomorrow and warming temperatures through the remainder of the week. Wind flow will turn northerly tomorrow and offshore Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge builds in and a surface thermal trough moves up the coast. Burn opportunities will be marginal to unlikely after today. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 2 11:52:28 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 2 Sep 2014 11:52:28 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT TUE SEP 2, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough is dropping over the state today from the northwest. The cold front is passing through the Puget Sound area currently. Skies are mostly clear with just a few scattered clouds. Surface high pressure has moved southward and is mainly west of the region. Due to lingering cloudiness in the valley gradients are stacked a little higher in the Cascades than the Coast Range now. Current gradients are +2.5 mb from Newport to Salem and +3.0 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level trough will continue to drop southward over the state today with the cold front arriving during the late afternoon. Clouds will increase this afternoon but moisture is unlikely other than some sprinkles as the trough moves through this evening. The front will kick off a marine push with winds shifting from northerly this morning to NW'erly this afternoon. Mixing height will reach 3000 ft around noon and lift to 5000 ft by mid-afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly clear early with increasing clouds this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78 degrees (average is 80). Relative humidity: Will drop to near 40 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: NW to N at 5 - 10 mph, increasing to WNW to NW at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNW to N at 5 - 12 mph, shifting to NW'erly at 10 - 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 ft around noon, rising above 5000 ft by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:47 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, Sept. 1: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge quickly moves in behind today's trough and cold front with clearing skies tomorrow and warming temperatures through the remainder of the week. Wind flow will turn from northwest to northerly tomorrow and northeasterly Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge builds in and a surface thermal trough moves up the coast. Burn opportunities will be marginal to unlikely after today. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 3 08:55:52 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 3 Sep 2014 08:55:52 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED SEP 3, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11:30 a.m. until 1:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is centered over NW Montana, with a dry and brisk northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. Marine clouds over much of western Washington and NW Oregon this morning will slowly give way to sunshine this afternoon, as the flow aloft turns more northerly and continues to dry out. Cool air aloft will make for high mixing heights today, but northwesterly transport winds are expected to veer to northerly this afternoon, which will limit burning opportunities. The first PIBAL is scheduled for 11 a.m., to closely monitor the shifting transport winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11:30 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Var 0-5 mph this morning; becoming N 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph; veering to N 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11:30 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:45 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 2nd: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge, over the Gulf of Alaska, will bring a dry northerly flow aloft on Thursday and northeasterly flow aloft on Friday. A corresponding surface thermal trough will build northward along the Oregon coast, turning low-level winds offshore and warming valley temperatures back into the low 90s by Friday. This warm spell should peak on Saturday, with valley temperatures possibly topping out in the mid-90s. The ridge is expected to shift westward early next week, which would turn the flow aloft northwesterly. Little or no precipitation is expected, but increasing onshore flow will cool temperatures back to near average and may create burning opportunities. Long-range weather models are showing generally dry weather with above average temperatures through the first half of September. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 3 11:41:15 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 3 Sep 2014 11:41:15 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT WED SEP 3, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 1:00 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough extends from western Montana across Oregon, with a dry and brisk northwesterly flow aloft over NW Oregon. Marine clouds still cover much of NW Oregon but should slowly give way to sunshine, this afternoon, as onshore flow turns northerly. Cool air aloft will make for high mixing heights today. However, significant negative gradient-stacking of the onshore flow, from Newport to Redmond, would cause down-mixing of smoke plumes. An 11 a.m. PIBAL showed light and variable winds in the lowest 3000 feet. Even if the gradient-stacking gets "balanced" later this afternoon, increasing northerly transport winds will likely inhibit burning chances. The next PIBAL is scheduled for 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Slowly clearing skies. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Near 50%; dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light; becoming N 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph; veering to N 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3000 feet; rising to near 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:45 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 2nd: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge, over the Gulf of Alaska, will bring a dry northerly flow aloft on Thursday and NE flow aloft on Friday. A building surface thermal trough, along the coast, will turn low-level winds offshore and warm temperatures into the low 90s by Friday. This warm spell should peak on Saturday, with the thermal trough moving over the interior of western Oregon and valley temperatures climbing into the mid-90s. Early next week, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift westward. That would turn the flow aloft northwesterly with increasing onshore flow at the surface. Although still a dry pattern, temperatures will cool to near average with possible burning opportunities. The upper-level ridge is predicted to strengthen over Oregon during the second half of next week, for a return to offshore flow and quite warm temperatures. Longer-range models are maintaining this dry weather pattern through the middle of September. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 4 08:57:49 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 4 Sep 2014 08:57:49 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT THU SEP 4, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Conditions Likely by Mid-Afternoon Due to Low Humidity and Wind *** Recommended times for agricultural burning are from noon until 5:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge, over the Gulf of Alaska, has turned the jet stream level winds northerly and significantly dried out the air mass over Oregon. Skies are clear statewide this morning. The sounding over Salem showed NE winds from the surface up through about 20,000 feet. A building surface thermal trough, along the coast, will intensify the NE winds this afternoon, with very dry and breezy conditions likely across the valley. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Turning breezy in the afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 30% by 2 p.m. and to near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; NNE 12-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 10-15 mph this morning; NE 15-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around noon and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:43 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 3rd: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 110) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Even the flow at the jet stream level will turn northeasterly on Friday, as the air aloft continues to warm. The surface thermal trough will remain along the coast with offshore flow and very warm temperatures across western Oregon. This warm spell should peak on Saturday, with the thermal trough shifting inland over western Oregon. Willamette Valley temperatures will likely climb into the mid-90s. Early next week, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift westward, turning the flow aloft northwesterly. Increasing onshore flow at the surface will initiate a cooling trend. No precipitation is expected, but temperatures will cool to near average with possible burning opportunities Monday and Tuesday. The upper-level ridge is predicted to strengthen over Oregon during the second half of next week, for a return to offshore flow and quite warm temperatures. Longer-range models are maintaining a generally dry weather pattern, with above average temperatures, through the middle of September. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 4 11:41:48 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 4 Sep 2014 11:41:48 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT THU SEP 4, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Conditions Likely by Mid-Afternoon Due to Low Humidity and Wind *** Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 5:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry northerly flow over aloft over Oregon has cleared skies statewide. At the surface, a thermal trough is building northward along the coast. NNE winds will increase across the Willamette Valley this afternoon; drying out the low-levels of the air mass. Temperatures will top out about 10 degrees warmer than on Wednesday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, breezy, and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 30% by 2 p.m. and to near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 10-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 15-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3000 feet; rising to near 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:43 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 3rd: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 110) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Northeasterly flow aloft will maintain sunny skies on Friday. The surface thermal trough will remain along the coast with offshore flow and even warmer temperatures. This warm spell should peak on Saturday, with Willamette Valley temperatures likely climbing into the mid-90s. Early next week, the ridge is expected to weaken with increasing NW flow aloft forcing the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades. That will initiate a cooling onshore flow into the interior of western Oregon. No precipitation is expected, but temperatures will cool to near average with possible burning opportunities Monday and Tuesday. An upper-level ridge is predicted to strengthen over Oregon during the second half of next week, for a return to offshore flow and warmer temperatures. Longer-range models are maintaining a generally dry weather pattern, with above average temperatures, through the middle of September. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 5 08:55:55 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 5 Sep 2014 08:55:55 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT FRI SEP 5, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions Are Likely This Afternoon *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Northeasterly flow aloft will bring sunny and even warmer weather today. The surface thermal trough will remain just offshore with NE winds extending the very warm temperatures all the way to the coast. NE winds will increase across the Willamette Valley again this afternoon; significantly drying out the low-levels of the air mass. Temperatures will top out about 5 degrees warmer than on Thursday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, breezy, and hot. Very low humidity this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 92?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 30% by noon and to below 20% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 7-12 mph this morning; NE 15-25 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 15 mph this morning; NE 20-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 2 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:41 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 4th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 110) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Weak southwesterly flow aloft will push the thermal trough inland, to over the Willamette Valley, on Saturday. That should be the peak of this warm spell with temperatures topping out in the mid-90s but with less wind. Onshore flow should begin by Sunday, which will cool valley temperatures back into the upper-80s. Early next week, increasing NW flow aloft will push the thermal trough into eastern Oregon, with onshore flow bringing more significant cooling to NW Oregon. No precipitation is expected, but temperatures will cool to near average by Tuesday, with possible burning opportunities Monday and Tuesday. An upper-level ridge is predicted to strengthen over Oregon again later next week, bringing a return of offshore flow and warmer temperatures. Longer-range models are maintaining a generally dry weather pattern, with above average temperatures, through the middle of September. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 5 11:48:50 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 5 Sep 2014 11:48:50 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 5, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions Are Likely All Afternoon *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure covers much of the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A warm and very dry NE flow aloft is producing sunny skies across most of Oregon. The lone exception is along the extreme southern coast, where low-level onshore flow is forcing coastal stratus against the beaches. At the surface, a thermal trough extends northward along, and just off of, the coast, with high pressure centered over NE Oregon. The resultant offshore flow is bringing very warm and dry conditions all the way to the northern and central Oregon beaches. Increasing NE winds and low relative humidity levels have already put much of NW Oregon into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions. Willamette Valley temperatures are running about 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, so highs should easily climb into the 90s. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, breezy, and hot. Very low humidity. Salem's high temperature today will be near 93?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Below 30%; dropping below 20% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NE 15-25 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 20-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 2 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:41 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 4th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 110) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Weak SW flow aloft will push the thermal trough over the interior of NW Oregon on Saturday. That should be the peak of this warm spell, with Willamette Valley temperatures topping out in the mid-to-upper-90s but with less wind. Onshore flow should begin a cooling trend on Sunday, with temperatures dropping back into the upper-80s. Early next week, increasing NW flow aloft will push the thermal trough into eastern Oregon. Stronger onshore flow will provide more significant cooling but with little or no precipitation. Temperatures will cool to near average by Tuesday, with possible burning opportunities Monday and Tuesday. An upper-level ridge is predicted to strengthen over Oregon again later next week, bringing a return of offshore flow and warmer temperatures. Mostly dry weather, with above average temperatures, is expected through mid-September. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 8 08:53:34 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 8 Sep 2014 08:53:34 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT MON SEP 8, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The strong upper-level ridge of high pressure responsible for the recent spell of hot and dry weather is giving way to a very weak upper-level trough this morning. The surface thermal trough has shifted east of the Cascades with increasing onshore flow across NW Oregon. Marine low clouds blanket the coast but do not extend east of the coast range. Bands of middle and high clouds, associated with the approaching upper-level trough, cover much of Washington and extend across the NW corner of Oregon. These cloud-bands will sweep across northern Oregon today, but no precipitation is expected. Temperatures will cool back to near average. The morning sounding over Salem still showed NE winds below 3000 feet but a switch to NW winds from 3000 feet through 8000 feet, along with significant cooling. Because the air temperatures are still quite warm near 3000 feet, it may take until about 2 p.m. for mixing heights to reach that level. Continued cooling aloft should lift mixing heights to near 5000 feet late this afternoon. Transport winds may turn northwesterly enough to create a burning opportunity and will need to be closely monitored. TODAY'S FORECAST: Increasing middle and high clouds. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-6 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 2 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:36 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 7th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: In the wake of today's upper-level trough, a stronger surge of marine air will likely force low clouds into the Willamette Valley overnight, with local drizzle possible early Tuesday. A dry northwesterly flow aloft should clear skies Tuesday afternoon. Cool air aloft will maintain goo afternoon mixing, but mostly northerly transport winds will limit burning opportunities. An upper-level ridge is predicted to strengthen over Oregon again later this week, bringing a return of offshore flow and warmer temperatures. Long-range models are maintaining a generally dry weather pattern, with above average temperatures, through the middle of the month. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 8 11:53:13 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 8 Sep 2014 11:53:13 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT MON SEP 8, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough has initiated a cooling trend across western Oregon. The surface trough is shifting into central Oregon with increasing onshore flow from Newport to Redmond. Low clouds remain banked up along the coast with middle and high clouds now covering much of NW Oregon. Temperatures are similar to 24 hours ago but should top out a few degrees cooler than yesterday, due to increasing cloud-cover and onshore flow. The air aloft is still quite warm, so mixing heights will initially be slow to climb this afternoon. However, continued cooling aloft and daytime heating should make for good mixing later this afternoon. Pressure gradients are already favorable to keep smoke elevated, so wind direction will be the main factor limiting burning today. The latest computer guidance is suggesting that transport winds will back from northerly to northwesterly, which would allow for some burning. The first PIBAL is scheduled for 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Considerable middle and high clouds. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-6 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5 mph; becoming NW 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:36 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 7th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: In the wake of today's upper-level trough, more marine air will pour into western Oregon tonight. Expect some low clouds across the Willamette Valley Tuesday morning, with areas of drizzle possible. A dry northwesterly flow aloft should clear skies Tuesday afternoon. Cool air aloft will maintain good afternoon mixing, but poor gradient-stacking and predicted northerly transport winds will limit burning opportunities. An upper-level ridge is expecgted to strengthen over Oregon again later this week, bringing a return of offshore flow and warmer temperatures. Long-range models are maintaining a generally dry weather pattern, with above average temperatures, through the middle of the month. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 9 08:36:58 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 9 Sep 2014 08:36:58 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:35 AM PDT TUE SEP 9, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A significant surge of marine air poured into western Oregon overnight. Low clouds cover most of the Willamette Valley this morning. Spotty light drizzle is possible. As is typically the case after a "marine push," onshore pressure gradients are negatively-stacked this morning and may not balance out this afternoon. A dry northwesterly flow aloft should slowly clear skies today. Cool air aloft will make for good afternoon mixing, but poor gradient-stacking and afternoon winds veering to more northerly will limit burning opportunities. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning with possible light drizzle. Afternoon clearing. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 11 a.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NNW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet at 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:34 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 8th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is forecast to strengthen along the west coast Wednesday through Friday, with a continued dry northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. A building thermal trough along the coast will turn low-level winds northerly on Wednesday and offshore Thursday and Friday. Valley temperatures will warm to near average on Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper-80s by Friday. Burning opportunities are unlikely. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 9 11:20:36 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 9 Sep 2014 11:20:36 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:20 AM PDT TUE SEP 9, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Under a dry northwesterly flow aloft, marine clouds are slowing giving way to sunshine across NW Oregon. Cool air aloft will promote good mixing today, but other factors may limit burning opportunities. If the "negatively-stacked" onshore pressure gradients become "balanced" this afternoon, transport winds will likely be northerly. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Becoming mostly sunny but cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Near 50%; dropping below 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph; becoming NNW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph; becoming NNW 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3000 feet; rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:34 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 8th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is forecast to strengthen along the west coast Wednesday through Friday, with a continued dry northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. A building thermal trough along the coast will turn low-level winds northerly on Wednesday and northeasterly Thursday and Friday. Valley temperatures will warm to near average on Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper-80s by Friday. Burning opportunities are unlikely. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 10 08:48:03 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Sep 2014 08:48:03 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED SEP 10, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Oregon lies between a building upper-level ridge, in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, and a cool "autumn-like" weather system diving southward into Montana. That is producing a dry northwesterly flow aloft today with weakening onshore low-level winds. Some marine low clouds have penetrated into the northern Willamette Valley this morning but should quickly give way to sunshine today. The sounding over Salem this morning showed considerable warming of the layer between 2000 feet and 8000 feet, so mixing heights will struggle to reach 3000 feet this afternoon. As a thermal trough builds northward along the coast, dry north to NE low-level winds will increase this afternoon, possibly putting sections of the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions by late this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Patchy morning clouds...otherwise sunny with near-average temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% around 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10 mph this morning; NNE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 9th: High 76?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 55) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The building upper-level ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska is forecast to push closer to the coast Thursday and Friday. A dry northwesterly flow aloft will continue with a general warming of the air mass over Oregon. A coastal thermal trough will turn low-level winds northeasterly; warming valley temperatures into the mid-80s Thursday and upper-80s on Friday. The combination of NE winds and low humidity will raise wildfire concerns and may put much of the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions both Thursday and Friday afternoon. The thermal trough is forecast to move inland over western Oregon this weekend, which will decrease winds but spike temperatures in the low-90s. Southwesterly flow aloft will turn low-level winds back onshore and initiate a cool-down early next week, with the potential for burning opportunities. No significant precipitation is predicted through the middle of next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 10 11:54:21 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Sep 2014 11:54:21 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED SEP 10, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Oregon lies under a dry northwesterly flow aloft, between a building ridge of high pressure in the eastern Gulf of Alaska and a quite cool upper-level trough diving southward into Montana. At the surface, a thermal trough is building northward along the coast and has turned low-level winds northeasterly across all but the extreme northern portion of western Oregon. Dry NE winds will increase this afternoon, possibly putting the Willamette valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny with temperatures recovering to around average. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NE 10-15 mph. Transport winds: NE 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 9th: High 76?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 55) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The building upper-level ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska is forecast to push closer to the coast Thursday and Friday. A dry northwesterly flow aloft will continue with a general warming of the air mass over Oregon. A coastal thermal trough will maintain the dry NE winds; warming valley temperatures into the mid-80s Thursday and upper-80s on Friday. The combination of NE winds and low humidity will raise wildfire concerns and possibly put the Willamette Valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions both Thursday and Friday afternoon. The thermal trough is forecast to move inland over western Oregon this weekend, which will decrease winds but spike temperatures in the low-90s. Southwesterly flow aloft will turn low-level winds back onshore and initiate a cool-down early next week, with the potential for burning opportunities. No significant precipitation is predicted through the middle of next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 11 08:55:48 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Sep 2014 08:55:48 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT THU SEP 11, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions Likely By Noon Today *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong offshore flow pattern has set up across NW Oregon. An upper-level ridge is amplifying over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and sending an early autumn-like weather system into the northern Rockies. Cool air over NE Oregon will be accelerated eastward into a building thermal trough along the coast; sending brisk dry east to NE winds across NW Oregon. As winds increase today, State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions will likely be met by noon and continue through this evening. Due to the elevated risk of wildfires, the National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings for most of NW Oregon, including the Willamette Valley, beginning 11 a.m. today and continuing through 6 p.m. Friday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, breezy, and warmer with very low relative humidity. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 30% around 11 a.m. and to below 15% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NE 5-15 mph this morning; NE 10-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 10-15 mph this morning; NNE 20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Slowly rising to near 4000 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:30 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 10th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change in the weather pattern is expected on Friday, except for some reduction of the offshore flow. A coastal thermal trough will maintain the dry NE transport winds, but with decreased wind speeds. Valley temperatures will likely climb into the upper-80s. The combination of NE winds and low humidity will likely put the Willamette Valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions again Friday afternoon. The thermal trough is forecast to move inland, over western Oregon, by Sunday. That will further relax the winds, but valley temperatures will likely climb into the low-90s. South to southwesterly flow aloft will increase early next week; turning the low-level winds back onshore and initiating a cooling trend. No significant precipitation is predicted through the middle of next week, with the switch to onshore flow possibly creating some burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 11 11:52:00 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Sep 2014 11:52:00 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT THU SEP 11, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions Have Been Reached *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong offshore flow pattern has set up across NW Oregon. An amplifying upper-level ridge, over the eastern Gulf of Alaska, is driving an early autumn-like weather system into the northern Rockies. Cool air over NE Oregon is being accelerated westward into a surface thermal trough along the coast; resulting in brisk dry east to NE winds across NW Oregon. The strongest winds will be near the Columbia Gorge and in the Portland area. State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions exist throughout the Willamette Valley and will likely continue through this evening. Due to the elevated risk of wildfires, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for most of NW Oregon, including the Willamette Valley, through 6 p.m. Friday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, breezy, and warmer with very low relative humidity. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 15% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 15-25 mph. Transport winds: NE 20-25 mph. Mixing height: Slowly rising to near 4000 feet by late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:30 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 10th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change in the weather pattern is expected on Friday, except for some reduction of the offshore flow. A coastal thermal trough will maintain the dry NE transport winds, but with gradually decreasing wind speeds, from south to north, across NW Oregon. Valley temperatures will likely climb into the upper-80s, with State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions likely. The thermal trough is forecast to move inland, over western Oregon, by Sunday. That will further relax the winds, but valley temperatures should warm into the low-90s. South to southwesterly flow aloft will increase early next week; turning the low-level winds back onshore and initiating a cooling trend. The switch to onshore flow could create burning opportunities. Although the threat of a thunderstorm can't be ruled out, no significant precipitation is predicted through at least the middle of next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 12 08:35:05 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Sep 2014 08:35:05 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:35 AM PDT FRI SEP 12, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions May Be Reached This Afternoon *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Little change in the weather pattern is expected today. An amplified upper-level ridge, remains over the eastern Gulf of Alaska, with a very dry NW flow aloft over Oregon. Cool air over NE Oregon is still being forced westward into a surface thermal trough along the coast. Pressure gradients have relaxed since Thursday, so the offshore winds will be considerably weaker today; strongest near the Columbia Gorge and the Portland area. The Salem sounding this morning showed several degrees of warming throughout the lowest 10,000 feet of the air mass, so temperatures across the Willamette Valley should top out a few degrees warmer today compared to Thursday. Much like yesterday, cool air funneling through the Gorge will keep the north valley cooler than the south valley. The air mass remains very dry, and wind speeds may increase enough for sections of the valley to reach State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban criteria this afternoon. Due to the elevated risk of wildfires, the National Weather Service has extended the Red Flag Warning for most of NW Oregon, including the Willamette Valley, through 8 p.m. Sunday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, warm and very dry. Not as breezy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 15% this afternoon. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NNE 7-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph this morning; NNE 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Slowly rising to near 4000 feet late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:28 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 11th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska is predicted to slowly progress eastward, to over the western U.S., this weekend. That will force the coastal surface thermal inland, to over western Oregon; further warming valley temperatures but slackening winds. Afternoon highs will likely climb into the low 90s each day. As the upper-level ridge continues to progress eastward early next week, to over Idaho and Montana, increasing south to southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon will force the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades; turning low-level winds back onshore and initiating a cooling trend. The switch to onshore flow could create burning opportunities, but there is also a risk of showers or thunderstorms, especially by the middle of next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 12 11:44:46 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Sep 2014 11:44:46 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 1140 AM PDT FRI SEP 12, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions May Be Reached This Afternoon *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska is maintaining a very dry NW flow aloft over Oregon. Cool air over NE Oregon is still being forced westward into a surface thermal trough along the coast. Offshore pressure gradients have relaxed since Thursday, so wind-speeds will be considerably lower today. However, the air mass remains very dry, so sections of the valley may achieve State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions this afternoon. Due to the elevated risk of wildfires, the National Weather Service has extended the Red Flag Warning for most of NW Oregon, including the Willamette Valley, through 8 p.m. Sunday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, warm and very dry. Not as breezy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 15% this afternoon. Surface winds: NNE 7-15 mph. Transport winds: NNE 15 mph. Mixing height: Slowly rising to near 4000 feet later this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:28 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 11th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska is predicted to slowly progress eastward, to over the western U.S., this weekend. That will force the coastal surface thermal trough inland, to over western Oregon; further warming valley temperatures but slackening winds. Afternoon highs will likely climb into the low 90s each day. As the upper-level ridge continues to progress eastward early next week, to over Idaho and Montana, increasing south to southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon will force the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades; turning low-level winds back onshore and initiating a cooling trend. The switch to onshore flow could create burning opportunities, but there is also a risk of showers or thunderstorms, especially by the middle of next week. However, long-range computer models maintain a generally dry summer-like pattern through the next two weeks. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 15 08:47:15 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2014 08:47:15 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON SEP 15, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will slowly progress eastward today, with an increasing southwesterly flow aloft. A surface thermal trough remains along the coast this morning. Weak offshore flow is forcing significant smoke, from the "36 Pit" wildfire near Estacada, into the Willamette Valley. No relief from the smoke is likely today. The thermal trough should move over the Willamette Valley this afternoon; producing light and variable winds, low mixing heights, and very warm temperatures. A very weak upper-level disturbance, currently off the northern California coast, will move over western Oregon by this evening. Along with increasing middle and high clouds, this system could produce enough mid-level instability to trigger high-based thunderstorms. Since the low-levels of the air mass remain very dry, any storms that form would product little to no rain, adding to an already elevated wildfire risk. Due to the very dry conditions and the chance of dry thunderstorms, the National Weather Service has extended the Red Flag Warning for most of NW Oregon, including the Willamette Valley, through 5 a.m. Tuesday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy, warm, and smoky. Slight chance of a dry thunderstorm late. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to below 20% by late this afternoon. Surface winds: Var 5 mph. Transport winds: Var 5 mph. Mixing height: Only rising to near 2500 feet by late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 14th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 13) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: As the upper-level ridge continues to progress eastward, to over the Rockies, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will force the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades on Tuesday. That will turn low-level winds onshore; initiating a cooling trend and dramatically improving the air quality across the Willamette Valley. The switch to onshore flow could create burning opportunities both Tuesday and Wednesday, with a little stronger weather system possibly pushing some showers into the region later Wednesday. Long-range computer models show dry and warmer weather by the weekend; perhaps continuing through next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 15 11:50:54 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2014 11:50:54 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT MON SEP 15, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will slowly progress eastward today, with an increasing southwesterly flow aloft. A surface thermal trough remains near the coast this morning. Onshore flow has returned to the central and southern coast, but continued weak offshore flow is forcing smoke, from the "36 Pit" wildfire near Estacada, into the Willamette Valley. No relief from the smoke is likely today, as the thermal trough shifts over the Willamette Valley; producing light and variable winds, low mixing heights, and very warm temperatures. A very weak upper-level disturbance, currently off the northern California coast, will move over western Oregon by this evening. Along with increasing middle and high clouds, this system could trigger high-based thunderstorms. Since the low-levels of the air mass remain very dry, any storms that form would product little to no rain, adding to an already elevated wildfire risk. Due to the very dry conditions and the chance of dry thunderstorms, the National Weather Service has extended the Red Flag Warning for most of NW Oregon, including the Willamette Valley, through 5 a.m. Tuesday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy, warm, and smoky. Slight chance of a dry thunderstorm late. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to below 20% by late this afternoon. Surface winds: Var 5 mph. Transport winds: Var 5 mph. Mixing height: Only rising to near 2500 feet by late this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 14th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 13) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: As the upper-level ridge progresses eastward, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will force the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades on Tuesday. That will turn low-level winds onshore; initiating a cooling trend and dramatically improving the air quality across the Willamette Valley. The switch to onshore flow could create burning opportunities Tuesday and/or Wednesday, with a little stronger weather system possibly bringing light showers to the region later Wednesday and Thursday. A return to dry and warmer weather begins on Friday; possibly lasting through next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 16 08:56:52 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 08:56:52 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON SEP 15, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 1:30 p.m. with a 25 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The strong upper-level ridge that has been over the Pacific Northwest has shifted eastward, to over the Rockies. An increasing southwesterly flow aloft finally pushed the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades last night; inducing onshore flow and clearing the dense wildfire smoke (from the "36 Pit" fire east of Estacada) from the Willamette Valley. A very weak upper-level disturbance brought some sprinkles to the north coast early this morning but just middle and high clouds to the interior of western Oregon. Some marine low clouds have also penetrated into the Willamette Valley. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable cooling below 6000 feet, and low-level winds have turned south-southwesterly. Transport winds are forecast to veer from SSW to WSW this afternoon, with cooler air aloft likely improving mixing heights enough to allow for open burning. However, the influx of cooler marine air has created some minor gradient-stacking this morning, which will need to be "balanced-out" by daytime heating. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to below 60% by noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 4-8 mph; becoming w 4-8 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 2500 feet by noon and 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:21 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 15th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Continued southwesterly flow aloft will push a little stronger weather system onto the southern Oregon coast later Wednesday. With the system moving up from the SW, low-level winds may be unfavorable for burning ahead of it, Wednesday afternoon. Some showers are possible in the Willamette Valley Wednesday night and Thursday, as the associated weak upper-level trough comes onshore, mainly across southern Oregon and northern California. A return to dry and warmer weather is expected Friday through Sunday. Transport winds will turn northerly on Friday and offshore again on Saturday, which could bring smoke from the "16 Pit" wildfire back into the Willamette Valley. Onshore flow is expected to return on Sunday, which would clear any wildfire smoke from the valley. Weak southwesterly flow aloft is predicted for Monday with continued onshore flow at the surface possibly creating a burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 16 09:02:24 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 09:02:24 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Corrected Date for Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT TUE SEP 16, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 1:30 p.m. with a 25 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The strong upper-level ridge that has been over the Pacific Northwest has shifted eastward, to over the Rockies. An increasing southwesterly flow aloft finally pushed the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades last night; inducing onshore flow and clearing the dense wildfire smoke (from the "36 Pit" fire east of Estacada) from the Willamette Valley. A very weak upper-level disturbance brought some sprinkles to the north coast early this morning but just middle and high clouds to the interior of western Oregon. Some marine low clouds have also penetrated into the Willamette Valley. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable cooling below 6000 feet, and low-level winds have turned south-southwesterly. Transport winds are forecast to veer from SSW to WSW this afternoon, with cooler air aloft likely improving mixing heights enough to allow for open burning. However, the influx of cooler marine air has created some minor gradient-stacking this morning, which will need to be "balanced-out" by daytime heating. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to below 60% by noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 4-8 mph; becoming w 4-8 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 2500 feet by noon and 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:21 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 15th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Continued southwesterly flow aloft will push a little stronger weather system onto the southern Oregon coast later Wednesday. With the system moving up from the SW, low-level winds may be unfavorable for burning ahead of it, Wednesday afternoon. Some showers are possible in the Willamette Valley Wednesday night and Thursday, as the associated weak upper-level trough comes onshore, mainly across southern Oregon and northern California. A return to dry and warmer weather is expected Friday through Sunday. Transport winds will turn northerly on Friday and offshore again on Saturday, which could bring smoke from the "16 Pit" wildfire back into the Willamette Valley. Onshore flow is expected to return on Sunday, which would clear any wildfire smoke from the valley. Weak southwesterly flow aloft is predicted for Monday with continued onshore flow at the surface possibly creating a burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 16 11:55:10 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 11:55:10 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT TUE SEP 16, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 1:30 p.m. with a 25 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge has moved east, to over the Rockies. A switch to onshore flow overnight cleared the dense wildfire smoke from the Willamette Valley. Southwesterly flow aloft is spreading some middle and high clouds across NW Oregon at midday, along with a few residual marine low clouds. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable cooling below 6000 feet, and low-level south-southwesterly winds. Mixing heights should hit 3000 feet once surface temperatures warm to 74?F, which could be as early at 1 p.m. Transport winds are forecast to veer from SSW to WSW this afternoon. The influx of marine air overnight created some minor gradient-stacking this morning, but it appears that will be "balanced-out" soon by daytime heating. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny...some high clouds. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 4-8 mph; becoming w 4-8 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:21 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 15th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change in the weather pattern is expected on Wednesday. Southwesterly flow aloft and weak onshore at the surface may creating favorable burning conditions in the afternoon. A little stronger weather system will approach the southern Oregon coast late Wednesday. Some showers are possible Wednesday night and Thursday, as the associated weak upper-level trough comes onshore. The main impact of this system will be across southern Oregon and northern California. Rainfall totals should be less than .10". A return to dry and warmer weather is expected Friday through Monday. Transport winds will turn northerly on Friday. Offshore winds on Monday may transport smoke, from the "16-Pit" wildfire, back across the valley. That should be a short-lived event, with onshore flow quickly returning on Sunday; clearing any smoke from the region. Weak southwesterly flow aloft is predicted for Monday with continued onshore flow at the surface possibly creating another burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 17 08:57:25 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 08:57:25 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED SEP 17, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: South-southwesterly flow aloft is spreading considerable cloudiness across Oregon but with only a few sprinkles...mainly along the coast. A weak surface thermal trough is over western Oregon with light and variable winds in the Willamette Valley. The Salem sounding this morning showed a bubble of warm air between 2000 and 4000 feet. With cloudy skies inhibiting surface heating, mixing heights will likely stay below 3000 feet all day. Winds in the transport layer will mostly be north to NE this afternoon; shearing to southerly at the mixing height...quite unfavorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy and cooler. Chance of sprinkles or light showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping only to near 50% this afternoon. Surface winds: Var 5 mph this morning; N 5 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5 mph this morning; NNE 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising only to near 2500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:19 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 16th: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 25) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A little stronger weather system will approach the southern Oregon coast tonight and move mainly across southern Oregon and northern California on Thursday. Showers are possible tonight and likely on Thursday, but precipitation totals should be less than .10". On the outside chance that fields remain dry, cooling aloft and more westerly transport winds could make for favorable burning conditions Thursday afternoon. A return to dry and warmer weather is expected Friday through Monday. Transport winds will turn northerly on Friday. Offshore winds on Saturday may transport smoke, from the "16-Pit" wildfire, back across the valley. That should be a short-lived event, with onshore flow quickly returning on Sunday; clearing any smoke from the region. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and onshore flow near the surface could create favorable burning conditions Monday afternoon. A more substantial weather system may bring some light rain to the region next Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 17 11:56:52 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 11:56:52 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT WED SEP 17, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: South-southwesterly flow aloft is spreading considerable cloudiness across most of Oregon but with only a few sprinkles...mainly along the coast. A weak surface thermal trough remains is over western Oregon with light and variable winds in the Willamette Valley and light NE winds in the transport layer. The Salem sounding this morning showed some warming aloft since yesterday, so mixing heights will be slow to climb this afternoon. However, an approaching upper-level trough may create a favorable burning window late this afternoon, by cooling the air aloft and turning transport winds westerly. On the flip side, it could also produce sprinkles or light showers. Transport winds will be monitored closely, beginning with a 2 p.m. PIBAL. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy and cooler. Chance of sprinkles or light showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping only to near 50% this afternoon. Surface winds: Var 5 mph; possibly becoming W 5 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5 mph; possibly becoming W 5-10 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 3 p.m. & perhaps 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:19 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 16th: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 25) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weather system will move onshore tonight and across mainly southern Oregon and northern California on Thursday. Showers are possible tonight and likely on Thursday, but precipitation totals should be less than .10". If fields remain dry, continued cooling aloft and westerly transport winds could make for favorable burning conditions Thursday afternoon. A return to dry and warmer weather is expected Friday through Monday. Transport winds will turn northerly on Friday. Offshore winds on Saturday may transport smoke, from the "16-Pit" wildfire, back across the valley. That should be a short-lived event, with onshore flow quickly returning on Sunday; clearing any smoke from the region. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and onshore flow near the surface could create favorable burning conditions Monday afternoon. A more substantial weather system may bring some light rain to the region next Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 17 12:08:27 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 12:08:27 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] *** Corrected Version *** Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:05 PM PDT WED SEP 17, 2014 *** Corrected Ventilation Index forecast (from 25 to 40) and name of wildfire near Estacada (should be "36 Pit") *** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: South-southwesterly flow aloft is spreading considerable cloudiness across most of Oregon but with only a few sprinkles...mainly along the coast. A weak surface thermal trough remains is over western Oregon with light and variable winds in the Willamette Valley and light NE winds in the transport layer. The Salem sounding this morning showed some warming aloft since yesterday, so mixing heights will be slow to climb this afternoon. However, an approaching upper-level trough may create a favorable burning window late this afternoon, by cooling the air aloft and turning transport winds westerly. On the flip side, it could also produce sprinkles or light showers. Transport winds will be monitored closely, beginning with a 2 p.m. PIBAL. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy and cooler. Chance of sprinkles or light showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping only to near 50% this afternoon. Surface winds: Var 5 mph; possibly becoming W 5 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5 mph; possibly becoming W 5-10 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 3 p.m. & perhaps 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:19 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 16th: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weather system will move onshore tonight and across mainly southern Oregon and northern California on Thursday. Showers are possible tonight and likely on Thursday, but precipitation totals should be less than .10". If fields remain dry, continued cooling aloft and westerly transport winds could make for favorable burning conditions Thursday afternoon. A return to dry and warmer weather is expected Friday through Monday. Transport winds will turn northerly on Friday. Offshore winds on Saturday may transport smoke, from the "36-Pit" wildfire, back across the valley. That should be a short-lived event, with onshore flow quickly returning on Sunday; clearing any smoke from the region. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and onshore flow near the surface could create favorable burning conditions Monday afternoon. A more substantial weather system may bring some light rain to the region next Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 18 08:50:46 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2014 08:50:46 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU SEP 18, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weakening upper level trough is over the west coast this morning bringing mostly cloudy skies and some light showers. A minor rain band is currently moving through the region and appears to be the back edge of the cold front. Morning sounding shows low level wind flow from the W to NNW at 5 - 10 mph up to 3500 ft, and southerly above. Surface high pressure is along the west coast and over the Willamette Valley with pressure gradients +1.5 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.7 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level trough will weaken and drop to the south with ridging developing to the north this afternoon. Shower band will move by to the east this morning with skies slowly clearing and air mass drying. Mixing height will not reach 3000 ft until early afternoon then lift to above 5000 ft by mid to late afternoon. Low-level wind flow will be mostly light and variable during the morning but favoring westerly flow. Winds should increase to SW to NW at 5 - 8 mph later this afternoon. If enough drying occurs, a burn opportunity looks available later this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Showers diminishing this morning with partial clearing later this morning and afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75 degrees (average is 77). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent by noon and drop to 45 - 50 percent by 4 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable into the early afternoon then NW'erly at 4 to 8 mph later in the later afternoon and evening. Transport winds: Light and variable this morning into the early afternoon then SW to NW at 5 - 10 mph this afternoon and evening. Mixing height: Below 2500 ft this morning, rising to 4000 ft by 2 p.m. and above 5000 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:17 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, Sept. 17: High 75?F; Rainfall: T) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge builds in tonight and through the weekend bringing clearing, warming and offshore flow. The ridge will move to the east later Sunday and Monday and allow a marine push to move in Monday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 18 11:47:05 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2014 11:47:05 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU SEP 18, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weakening upper level trough and accompanying minor cold front has drifted east of the region with skies clearing to the west. Surface high pressure is along the west coast and over the Willamette Valley with pressure gradients +1.6 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.2 mb from Salem to Redmond. Continued cloud cover is keeping temperatures cooler than expected but this should change as clearing will be moving in during the noon hour. Upper level trough will weaken and drop to the south with ridging developing to the north this afternoon. Mixing height will not reach 3000 ft until early afternoon then lift above 5000 ft by mid to late afternoon. Low-level wind flow will remain mostly light and variable until cloud cover dissipates. Winds should increase from the SW to NW at 5 - 8 mph later this afternoon. If enough drying occurs, a burn opportunity looks available later this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clearing early this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75 degrees (average is 77). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent around 1 p.m and drop to 45 - 50 percent by 4 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable into the early afternoon then NW'erly at 4 to 8 mph later this afternoon and evening. Transport winds: Light and variable into the early afternoon then SW to NW at 5 - 10 mph later this afternoon and evening. Mixing height: Below 2500 ft this morning, rising to 4000 ft by 2 p.m. and above 5000 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:17 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, Sept. 17: High 75?F; Rainfall: T) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge builds in tonight and through the weekend bringing clearing, warming and offshore flow. The ridge will move to the east later Sunday and Monday and allow a marine push to move in Monday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 19 08:46:19 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Sep 2014 08:46:19 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 19, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge is building over the state today. Skies are mostly clear with just some residual clouds from yesterday's trough dissipating. Morning sounding shows a stabilizing atmosphere with low level wind flow light and variable but favoring W to N flow up to 2000 ft, and SW'erly above. Surface high pressure resides over the Willamette Valley with pressure gradients +1.5 mb from Newport to Salem and -.9 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level ridge will continue to build over the state today bringing generally clear skies and warming temperatures. Surface heating and residual cool air aloft will allow mixing height to rise to 4500 ft by mid to late afternoon. Low-level wind flow will shift to northerly by late morning and increase during the afternoon to 10 - 18 mph. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80 degrees (average is 76). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent by noon and drop to 40 - 45 percent by 4 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable then becoming northerly by noon at 5 - 10 mph increasing to northerly at 10 to 18 mph during the afternoon and evening. Transport winds: Light and variable favoring W to N flow this morning, shifting to northerly at 5 - 10 mph by late morning and northerly at 12 - 18 mph this afternoon and evening. Mixing height: Below 2500 ft this morning, rising to 3000 ft by 1 p.m. and about 4500 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:15 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, Sept. 18: High 74?F; Rainfall: .01") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge continues build over the region tonight and through the Saturday before shifting eastward on Sunday. Expect clear and very warm temperatures with offshore NE to E flow on Saturday and E to SSE flow early Sunday becoming SW flow later Sunday. Wind flow will be mainly SW to W on Monday and appears it will present another burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 19 11:52:45 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Sep 2014 11:52:45 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI SEP 19, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge is building over the state today. Skies are mostly clear with just some residual clouds from yesterday's trough dissipating. Surface high pressure resides over the Willamette Valley with pressure gradients +1.4 mb from Newport to Salem and -.2 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level ridge will continue to build over the state today bringing generally clear skies and warming temperatures. Surface heating and residual cool air aloft will allow mixing height to rise to 4500 ft by mid to late afternoon. Low-level wind flow will shift to northerly and increase during the afternoon to 10 - 18 mph. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80 degrees (average is 76). Relative humidity: Will drop to 40 - 45 percent by 4 p.m. Surface winds: Northerly at 5 - 10 mph increasing to northerly at 10 to 18 mph during the mid-afternoon through early evening. Transport winds: Northerly at 5 - 10 mph increasing to 12 - 18 mph later this afternoon and evening. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 ft by 1 p.m. and about 4500 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:15 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, Sept. 18: High 74?F; Rainfall: .01") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge continues to build over the region tonight through Saturday before shifting eastward on Sunday. Expect clear and very warm temperatures with offshore NE to E flow on Saturday and E to SSE flow early Sunday, shifting to light SW flow later Sunday. Wind flow will be mainly SW to W on Monday and appears it will present another burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 33792 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 22 08:52:17 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 08:52:17 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT MON SEP 22, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The weather pattern is changing in-sync with the season today. Autumn officially begins at 7:29 p.m., and our persistent summer-time upper-level ridge is concurrently giving way to our first set of fall storms. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft has pushed the surface thermal trough into eastern Oregon. The switch to onshore flow began on Sunday and has already produced significant cooling below 12,000 feet. The first in a series of weather systems has spread clouds across most of the state, but it will weaken as it moves onshore today. This system may bring some sprinkles or light showers to the coast, and over the Cascades, but the threat of precipitation is reduced across the Willamette Valley. If fields remain dry and humidity levels are low enough, favorable burning conditions are likely this afternoon. Surface and transport winds will be southwesterly with mixing heights between 3000 and 4000 feet. This may be the last burning opportunity, before fields get wet for an extended period of time. Light rain is possible tonight and Tuesday, with the passage of this first weather system. Rainfall amounts should be less than .10". TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 65% by 11 a.m. and to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5 mph this morning; SW 5-10 5 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet at 11 a.m. and to near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:09 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 21st: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: After a chance of light rain on Tuesday, a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to drive a much more potent weather system onshore Wednesday. That system should dump more than .50" of rain across the Willamette Valley. An upper-level trough will maintain cool and showery weather Thursday and Friday. A transitory upper-level ridge is expected to bring drier and warmer weather this weekend, with temperatures recovering to near average. It is uncertain as to whether the dry conditions will extend into next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 22 09:30:37 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 09:30:37 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:30 AM PDT MON SEP 22, 2014 *** Updated Agricultural Burning Recommendation Only*** BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11 a.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The weather pattern is changing in-sync with the season today. Autumn officially begins at 7:29 p.m., and our persistent summer-time upper-level ridge is concurrently giving way to our first set of fall storms. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft has pushed the surface thermal trough into eastern Oregon. The switch to onshore flow began on Sunday and has already produced significant cooling below 12,000 feet. The first in a series of weather systems has spread clouds across most of the state, but it will weaken as it moves onshore today. This system may bring some sprinkles or light showers to the coast, and over the Cascades, but the threat of precipitation is reduced across the Willamette Valley. If fields remain dry and humidity levels are low enough, favorable burning conditions are likely this afternoon. Surface and transport winds will be southwesterly with mixing heights between 3000 and 4000 feet. This may be the last burning opportunity, before fields get wet for an extended period of time. Light rain is possible tonight and Tuesday, with the passage of this first weather system. Rainfall amounts should be less than .10". TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 65% by 11 a.m. and to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5 mph this morning; SW 5-10 5 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet at 11 a.m. and to near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:09 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 21st: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: After a chance of light rain on Tuesday, a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to drive a much more potent weather system onshore Wednesday. That system should dump more than .50" of rain across the Willamette Valley. An upper-level trough will maintain cool and showery weather Thursday and Friday. A transitory upper-level ridge is expected to bring drier and warmer weather this weekend, with temperatures recovering to near average. It is uncertain as to whether the dry conditions will extend into next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 22 11:55:43 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 11:55:43 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON SEP 22, 2014 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Autumn officially begins at 7:29 p.m., and our weather will be changing accordingly...right on schedule. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft induced cooler onshore flow into western Oregon Sunday afternoon. Marine low clouds still cover most of the Willamette Valley at midday, with increasing middle and high clouds statewide. Radar is showing possible sprinkles over SW Oregon and a few showers over the mountains of NE Oregon but no rainfall across the Willamette Valley. The surge of marine air into the western valleys overnight has resulted in some negative stacking of the onshore flow today. That may not need to get completely balanced to keep smoke elevated, because an approaching weak frontal system will also provide some lift to the air mass this afternoon. If conditions remain dry, favorable burning conditions are likely to develop this afternoon. Surface and transport winds should remain southwesterly with cooler air aloft providing good mixing. This may be the last burning opportunity, before fields get wet for an extended period of time. This first weather system will weaken as it comes onshore tonight, possibly bringing some very light rain to the valley overnight and Tuesday. Rainfall totals are expected to be less than .10". TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 5 mph. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Near 3000 feet; rising to near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:09 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 21st: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: After a chance of light rain on Tuesday, a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to drive a much more potent weather system onshore Wednesday. That system should dump more than .50" of rain across the Willamette Valley. An upper-level trough will maintain cool and showery weather Thursday and Friday. A transitory upper-level ridge is expected to bring drier and warmer weather this weekend, with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 23 08:53:02 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2014 08:53:02 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE SEP 23, 2014 *** Today will be the final broadcast of the 2014 season. *** *** Morning forecasts will continue through this Friday. *** *** There will be no further noon updates this season. *** BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11 a.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Autumn officially began yesterday at 7:29 p.m., and the weather is changing accordingly... Cloudy skies cover virtually all of Oregon this morning, in advance of an impressive autumn storm that will slowly makes its way onshore later today through Wednesday. Spotty light rain today will increase tonight...possibly becoming heavy across much of western Oregon by Wednesday morning. Rain will taper off and turn showery later Wednesday, as the moist frontal system slowly pushes east of the Cascades. Rainfall totals could exceed an inch from tonight through Wednesday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy. Sprinkles or very light rain at times. Increasing rain late. Salem's high temperature today will be near 70?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; S 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S 10-15 mph this morning; SSW 20-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:07 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 22nd: High 70?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will maintain cool and showery weather Thursday and Friday. A transitory upper-level ridge is expected to bring dry weather on Saturday, but light rain is possible again by late Sunday. The threat of light rain will continue through at least early next week, with temperatures remaining near to slightly below average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 24 08:56:30 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Sep 2014 08:56:30 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED SEP 24, 2014 *** This forecast will not be broadcast. *** *** Morning forecasts will continue through this Friday. *** *** There will be no further noon updates this season. *** BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 8 a.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An impressive autumn storm spread significant rain onshore overnight, with coastal locations generally receiving 1-2 inches. Light to moderate rain has spread eastward to the Cascades, with much of the Willamette Valley already seeing around an inch. The frontal system is expected to stall near the Cascades today, with rain possibly continuing for much of the day across the Willamette Valley, especially near the Cascade foothills, before decreasing this evening. An additional one-half to one inch of rain is possible across the Willamette Valley, if the front stalls over the region. Rain will likely continue in the Cascades all day, with significant rainfall totals for late September. TODAY'S FORECAST: Rain...decreasing from west to east by this evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 67?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Staying above 65% all day. Surface winds: S 5-15 mph. Transport winds: SSW 20-25 mph. Mixing height: Near 5000 feet. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:05 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 23rd: High 68?F; Rainfall: .47") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will maintain cool conditions with a chance of showers Thursday and Friday. Additional rainfall totals should be generally less than one-tenth of an inch. A transitory upper-level ridge is expected to bring dry weather this weekend, with temperatures recovering to near average. A weak cold front will bring back a chance of showers on Monday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 25 08:56:46 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Sep 2014 08:56:46 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT THU SEP 25, 2014 *** This forecast will not be broadcast. *** *** Morning forecasts will continue through Friday (tomorrow). *** *** There will be no further noon updates this season. *** BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 8 a.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An impressive autumn storm dumped about an inch of rain across the Willamette Valley over the past 48 hours. The front stalled over the Cascades on Wednesday, with the main rain band pushing just east of the valley. Otherwise rainfall totals would have been even more impressive. Satellite imagery shows a very slow-moving cloud-shield covering most of Washington and the western two-thirds of Oregon. The area of rainfall is more-narrow and has mostly pushed into central Oregon. A few sprinkles are still falling west of the Cascades. The solid cloud-shield should advance across eastern Oregon this afternoon with some sun-breaks over the Willamette Valley helping temperatures recover close to average. However, an upper-level trough will move onshore; keeping the air aloft cool and unstable enough for scattered shower development. Afternoon heating may trigger a late-day thunderstorm. Additional rainfall amounts will generally be less than one-tenth of an inch. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning with areas of light rain or sprinkles. Partial clearing this afternoon with scattered showers and a slight chance of thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 70?F (average is 74?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 60% this afternoon. Surface winds: S-SE 5-10 mph this morning; S-SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S 10-15 mph this morning; SW 20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:04 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 24th: High 67?F; Rainfall: .57") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will maintain cool conditions with a chance of showers on Friday. Additional rainfall totals should be less than one-tenth of an inch. A transitory upper-level ridge is expected to bring dry weather this weekend, with temperatures recovering into the mid-70s. A weak cold front will bring back a chance of showers on Monday with highs in the upper-60s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 26 08:42:11 2014 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2014 08:42:11 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT FRI SEP 26, 2014 *** This forecast will not be broadcast. *** *** Morning forecasts will continue through Friday (today). *** *** There will be no further noon updates this season. *** BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 8 a.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough remains over the state today but is slowly weakening. Rain showers continue over extreme northwest Oregon and Washington but radar shows none elsewhere. Skies in the mid-Willamette Valley are partly cloudy. Morning sounding shows a minor stable layer up to 500 ft above the ground with an unstable air mass above. Low level wind flow is southerly at 8 - 20 mph due to surface low pressure to the north. Pressure gradients are +.9 mb from Newport to Salem and -2.0 mb from Salem to Redmond. The upper level trough will continue to weaken and drift to the south today. However, with a continued unstable air mass, surface heating will develop some convective clouds and may produce a shower or two over the area this afternoon. Wind flow will turn from S to SW this morning to W to NW this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly to mostly cloudy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 70 degrees (average is 74). Relative humidity: Will not drop below 60 percent until early afternoon and reach a low of about 55 percent during the mid-afternoon. Surface winds: S to SSW at 5 - 10 mph this morning into the early afternoon then shifting to SW to NW at 5 - 10 mph during the mid to late afternoon. Transport winds: S to SW at 10 - 18 mph through the early afternoon then shifting to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the mid to late afternoon and W to NW during the evening. Mixing height: Below 2500 ft this morning, rising above 5000 ft by noon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, Sept. 25: High 72?F; Rainfall: .08") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge will build to the north while the trough develops into an upper low over California and Nevada. Expect mild and dry weather with good mixing during the afternoon Saturday and Sunday. A weak trough and front will approach on Monday and likely provide some light moisture to the northwest corner of the state Monday afternoon and evening. An upper level ridge will then slowly build for the rest of next week providing warming and drying. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: