From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 3 08:56:14 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 3 Aug 2015 15:56:14 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON AUG 3, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Our recent heat-wave was broken on Sunday, as an upper-level disturbance circulated enough clouds northward over the region to block the sunshine. That cooled maximum temperatures from the triple-digits down into the low-80s but with very little in the way of rainfall across NW Oregon. Another upper-level disturbance, over southern Oregon, is continuing to circulate moisture and instability northward over the region this morning. Skies are generally cloudy across the northern two-thirds of Oregon, but radar is showing little in the way of shower activity making it as far north and west as the Willamette Valley. Even though the air aloft has cooled since Sunday, cloudy skies will retard surface heating and likely keep mixing heights below 3000 feet until at least 2 p.m. The moisture feed is expected to shift eastward this afternoon, as a drier and more stable SW flow aloft develops over western Oregon. That should allow for some clearing, which would help late-afternoon temperatures climb into the upper-80s and lift mixing heights to around 4000 feet. In addition, increasing onshore flow may turn transport winds northwesterly enough to allow for some burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Slight chance of showers or thundershowers this morning; afternoon clearing. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Var 2-6 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 2-6 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:36 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 2nd: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, dropping southward along the British Columbia coastline, will turn the flow aloft more westerly Tuesday and Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected, but increasing low-level onshore flow will cool temperatures back to near average. Morning marine clouds may penetrate into the Willamette Valley with sunshine likely in the afternoons. Gradient-stacking and north winds could be an issue, but there is potential for burning each day. A weak upper-level ridge is expected to turn the flow aloft northwesterly Thursday and Friday. Onshore flow will begin to decrease with temperatures recovering to slightly above average by Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 3 11:58:29 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 3 Aug 2015 18:58:29 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON AUG 3, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance is continuing to circulate mid-level moisture and instability northward across the northern half of Oregon at midday. Skies remain generally cloudy across the Willamette Valley. Radar is showing an area of showers and possible thundershowers along the Linn County Cascades. These showers should stay east of the Silverton Hills, as they move slowly to the NNE this afternoon. Skies should slowly begin to clear later this afternoon, as a drier and more stable SW flow aloft develops over western Oregon. Daytime heating will eventually lift mixing heights to over 3000 feet later today, but onshore pressure gradients will need to increase to allow for open burning. A pibal is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Slight chance of showers or thundershowers; late-afternoon clearing. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5 mph; becoming NNW 5-10 mph by late this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NNW 5-10 mph by this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:36 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 2nd: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, dropping southward along the British Columbia coastline, will turn the flow aloft westerly Tuesday and Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected, but increasing low-level onshore flow will cool temperatures back to near average. Expect mostly sunny skies, after areas of morning marine clouds. Gradient-stacking and north winds could inhibit open burning, but there is potential each day. A weak upper-level ridge is expected to turn the flow aloft northwesterly Thursday and Friday. Onshore flow will begin to decrease. Winds will likely turn mostly northerly with temperatures recovering to slightly above average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 4 08:53:35 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 4 Aug 2015 15:53:35 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE AUG 4, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A drier and more stable SW flow aloft has cleared skies across western Oregon this morning, except for patchy marine low clouds along the coast and in the northern Willamette Valley. Satellite imagery shows a layer of elevated smoke, from wildfires across northern California and southern Oregon, stretching from the SW to NE across virtually all of Oregon. That smoke layer is expected to slowly migrate eastward over the next 48 hours; gradually clearing from the skies over NW Oregon. Onshore flow has created only minor pressure gradient-stacking this morning, which should be overcome by daytime heating. Cooling aloft will also make for higher mixing heights today. The limiting factor for open burning today will be transport wind direction, which is expected to start out northerly but may turn northwesterly this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny but hazy due to a layer of wildfire smoke aloft. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NNW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:35 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 3rd: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, dropping southward to over southern British Columbia, will turn the flow aloft westerly on Wednesday. Increasing low-level onshore flow will bring some marine clouds into the Willamette Valley Wednesday morning, but expect mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler with continued good afternoon mixing. Once again, there will be potential for open burning, with the limiting factors being pressure gradient-stacking and transport wind direction. A weak upper-level ridge is expected to turn the flow aloft northwesterly on Thursday with north to NE transport winds making burning unlikely. On Friday, another upper-level trough will turn the flow aloft to the SW and may increase the onshore flow enough for an afternoon burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 4 11:53:44 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 4 Aug 2015 18:53:44 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT TUE AUG 4, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A drier and more stable SW flow aloft has cleared skies across NW Oregon. As the flow aloft turns more westerly, a layer of elevated wildfire smoke should get pushed south and east of the region by tomorrow. Onshore flow has created minor pressure gradient-stacking, with 1.2mb onshore from Newport to Salem and 2.7mb onshore from Salem to Redmond. In addition, midday surface winds are mostly northerly across the Willamette Valley. Daytime heating will need to balance out the onshore flow, and transport winds will need to become more northwesterly, to allow for open burning this afternoon. Both are possible and will be monitored closely. The first pibal is scheduled for 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny but hazy due to a layer of wildfire smoke aloft. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NNW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph; becoming NNW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:35 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 3rd: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, dropping southward to over southern British Columbia, will turn the flow aloft westerly on Wednesday. Increasing low-level onshore flow will likely force marine clouds into the Willamette Valley Wednesday morning, but expect mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Temperatures should drop to a few degrees below average with continued good afternoon mixing. Once again, there will be potential for open burning, with the limiting factors being pressure gradient-stacking and transport wind direction. A weak upper-level ridge is expected to turn the flow aloft northwesterly on Thursday with north to NE transport winds making burning unlikely. On Friday, another upper-level trough will turn the flow aloft to the SW and may increase the onshore flow enough for an afternoon burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 5 08:39:34 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2015 15:39:34 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED AUG 05, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to gusty winds and low humidity, may be observed this afternoon*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is east of the Cascades, with westerly flow aloft cooling the atmosphere. At the surface, a high is forming off the coast of Oregon that will produce onshore flow today. Little to no cloud cover will allow rapid heating, with great mixing conditions as onshore gradients strengthen ahead of a mild afternoon sea breeze. Today appears to offer favorable open burning opportunities once gradients line up, but breezy gusts in the late afternoon hours may produce State Fire Marshal conditions as the sea breeze enters the Willamette Valley. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 4000 feet by 11 a.m. and rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:33 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 3rd: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The remainder of the week may present further favorable days for open burning, as the Pacific Northwest stays dry under modest onshore flow. The upper-level trough over Washington will exit east Thursday morning, and an upper-level ridge will approach off the Oregon coast Thursday afternoon. This will build up our surface high near the Oregon coast, increasing onshore flow and gradients, but producing a stronger afternoon sea breeze as a result on Thursday. On Friday, the upper-level ridge will weaken and pass over the Cascades, warming the atmosphere and suppressing mixing heights. Our surface high will weaken as well, and move across the Willamette Valley. This will produce our warmest day of the week, but temperatures and wind speeds will remain below State Fire Marshal conditions. Gradients will be the key factor to monitor Friday afternoon to determine if the environment will be favorable for open burning. The weather pattern over the weekend will return to cooler and cloudier conditions across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level trough will approach the Canadian coastline, cooling the atmosphere under more southwesterly flow aloft. Another weak surface high will form off the coast of southern Oregon, producing onshore flow with clouds, but deflecting isolated showers further north into Washington. Temperatures will drop just below seasonal averages, with no rainfall over the Silverton Hills this weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 5 11:51:22 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2015 18:51:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED AUG 05, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to gusty winds and low humidity, may be observed this afternoon*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The atmosphere is cooling aloft while westerly flow continues to increase. Improvement in onshore gradients is occurring, but at a slower pace than originally predicted. The Newport to Salem gradient is onshore +1.2mb while Salem to Redmond is onshore +3.5mb. Northerly winds will become northwesterly in the afternoon hours. Today may provide favorable open burning opportunities once gradients line up, but breezy gusts in the late afternoon hours may produce State Fire Marshal conditions. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently 3500 feet and rising to 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:33 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 3rd: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The remainder of the week may offer further favorable days for open burning, as the Pacific Northwest stays dry under modest onshore flow. An upper-level ridge will approach off the Oregon coast Thursday afternoon. This will build up our surface high near the Oregon coast, increasing onshore flow and gradients. On Friday, the upper-level ridge will weaken and pass over the Cascades, warming the atmosphere and suppressing mixing heights. Our surface high will weaken as well, moving across the Willamette Valley. This will produce our warmest day of the week, but temperatures and wind speeds will remain below State Fire Marshal conditions. Gradients will be the key factor to monitor Friday afternoon to determine if the environment will be favorable for open burning. The weather pattern over the weekend will return to cooler and cloudier conditions across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level trough will approach the Canadian coastline, cooling the atmosphere under more southwesterly flow aloft. Another weak surface high will form off the coast of southern Oregon, producing onshore flow with clouds, but deflecting isolated showers further north into Washington. Temperatures will drop just below seasonal averages, with no rainfall over the Silverton Hills this weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 6 08:48:17 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2015 15:48:17 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU AUG 6, 2015 *** State Fire Marshal Burn-ban conditions may be reached by 4 p.m. for humidity below 30 percent and wind reaching 15 mph or greater.*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning allowed from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough has exited the state to the east this morning. Morning sounding shows a modestly stable atmosphere with mixing heights around 2500 ft. Transport winds are N to NNE at 5 - 15 mph with surface winds northerly around 5 mph. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked at +.4 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.6 mb from Salem to Redmond. Flat upper level ridge will build over the state today keeping skies clear and bringing a little warming. In addition, surface high pressure is likely to remain entrenched to the north, keeping wind flow mainly northerly and limiting burn opportunities. With afternoon heating mixing heights should rise to 4500 - 5000 ft. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84 degrees (average is 84). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent by 10:00 a.m. and reach a low of 25 - 28 percent around 5 p.m. Surface winds: N to NNE at 5 - 10 mph this morning increasing to N at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N to NNE this morning at 7 - 15 mph becoming NNW to N at 10 - 18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3500 ft by noon and rising to near 5000 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, Aug 5: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Weak ridge to the north and minor trough to the south will be over the state on Friday with little change in the weather pattern. An upper low will approach the state on Saturday and likely turn wind flow onshore. This low will slowly move toward the state on Sunday and Monday bringing clouds and a chance of showers on Monday. If showers don't develop continued onshore S to SW flow may provide a burn opportunity Monday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 6 11:45:01 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2015 18:45:01 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU AUG 6, 2015 *** State Fire Marshal Burn-ban conditions may be reached by 4 p.m. for humidity below 30 percent and wind reaching 15 mph or greater.*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning allowed from noon to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Flat upper level ridge is building over the state today. With clear skies and daytime heating, mixing heights will rise to near 5000 ft. Surface winds have increased to about 12 mph and will remain breezy this afternoon with some gusts to 15 - 20 mph. Transport winds appear they will remain mainly northerly through the day. Pressure gradients remain negatively stacked at +.7 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.6 mb from Salem to Redmond. This should gradually change this afternoon, becoming evenly stacked by late afternoon. Burn opportunities appear limited. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84 degrees (average is 84). Relative humidity: Will drop to a low of 25 - 28 percent around 5 p.m. Surface winds: N at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N at 10 - 18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3500 ft by noon and rising to near 5000 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, Aug 5: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Weak ridge to the north and minor trough to the south will be over the state on Friday with little change in the weather other than potentially a little more onshore flow. This may open up a Friday afternoon burn opportunity. An upper low will approach the state on Saturday and likely turn wind flow S to SW. This low will slowly move toward the state on Sunday and Monday bringing clouds, cooler temperatures, and a chance of showers Sunday and Monday. If showers don't develop continued onshore S to SW flow may provide a burn opportunity Monday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 7 08:49:07 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 7 Aug 2015 15:49:07 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 7, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning allowed from noon to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Flat upper level ridge resides to the north with a weak trough to the south. Satellite picture shows clear skies over western Oregon with marine clouds banked up against the coastline. Morning sounding shows a stable atmosphere with transport winds remaining N to NNE at 10 - 15 mph. Surface winds are calm. Pressure gradients are positively stacked at +1.1 mb from Newport to Salem and +.7 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level ridge will shift east of the state this afternoon and evening as a trough approaches from the eastern Pacific. The shifting ridge and marine low clouds along the coast will initiate a modest marine push this afternoon. Expect winds to shift from northerly to NW around 2 p.m. and open up a possible burn opportunity. Afternoon heating will lift mixing heights to 4000 - 5000 ft. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84 degrees (average is 84). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent around 10:00 a.m. and reach a low of 32 - 35 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Increasing to N to NNE at 6 - 12 mph this morning, shifting to NW to NNW at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N to NNE this morning at 10 - 15 mph, becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 ft by noon and rising to near 4500 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:30 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, Aug 6: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level low and trough will slowly move toward the state through the weekend. Wind shifts to SW onshore flow on Saturday. Some scattered showers are possible on Sunday and possibly Monday as well. However, models don't forecast as much moisture as yesterday's run. By Monday the weakening trough is along the coast with low-level wind flow generally northwesterly. A burn opportunity looks possible Monday afternoon if fields aren't too wet. Trough lifts to the north on Tuesday and wind flow turns northerly. Overall, mixing heights look good through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 7 11:45:14 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 7 Aug 2015 18:45:14 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 7, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning allowed from noon to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Flat upper level ridge resides to the north with a weak trough to the south. Skies are clear over western Oregon with marine clouds still banked up against the coastline. Surface winds are mostly northerly. Pressure gradients are positively stacked at +1.5 mb from Newport to Salem and +.8 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level ridge will shift east of the state this afternoon and evening as a trough approaches from the eastern Pacific. The shifting ridge will initiate a modest marine push this afternoon. Expect winds to shift from northerly to NW after 2 p.m. Afternoon heating will lift mixing heights to 4000 - 5000 ft. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84 degrees (average is 84). Relative humidity: Will drop to a low of 32 - 35 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Mostly northerly at 5 - 10 mph, shifting to NW to NNW at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Northerly at 10 - 15 mph, becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Between 3000 - 3500 ft at noon, rising to near 4500 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:30 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, Aug 6: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level low and trough will slowly move toward the state through the weekend. Wind shifts to SW onshore flow on Saturday. Scattered showers are possible Sunday and Monday. By Monday the weakening trough is along the coast with low-level wind flow generally northwesterly. A burn opportunity looks possible Monday afternoon if fields aren't too wet. Trough lifts to the north Tuesday. Overall, mixing heights look good through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 10 08:58:18 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 10 Aug 2015 15:58:18 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON AUG 10, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, parked off of the Oregon Coast this morning, is producing a strong and unstable SSW flow aloft over the region. Daytime heating will further destabilize the air mass, which will lead to shower and thundershower development over the Cascades, and possibly the Willamette Valley, this afternoon and evening. Light S-SW surface and transport winds will veer to the south at the mixing height. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy. Chance of afternoon and evening showers or thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 50% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 3-6 mph this morning; SW 3-8 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 5-10 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about noon and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:26 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 9th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The offshore upper-level trough will slowly drift south, to off the northern California coastline, Tuesday and Wednesday. S-SE winds aloft will maintain a threat of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers. Temperatures should warm into the upper-80s on Tuesday with minor cooling on Wednesday. The upper-level trough is predicted to come onshore and move across the region Thursday and Friday. That will bring much cooler onshore flow along with scattered showers. Temperatures should drop back into the mid-to-upper 70s. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be less than .10". The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 10 11:53:08 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 10 Aug 2015 18:53:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT MON AUG 10, 2015 *** The Portland National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the western slopes of the northern and central Oregon Cascades, valid from noon today until 11 p.m. Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Cascades and move to the north and NW. The combination of gusty winds, abundant lightning, and very dry fuels poses a significant wildfire risk. *** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An offshore upper-level trough is producing a strong and unstable southerly flow aloft over western Oregon. Daytime heating will further destabilize the air mass, likely leading to shower and thundershower development over the Cascades, and possibly the Willamette Valley, this afternoon and evening. Southerly flow aloft typically does not produce very strong onshore flow, and late-morning gradients were only 1.6mb onshore from Newport to Salem and weakly offshore (-0.4mb) from Redmond to Salem. Light southerly surface and transport winds may turn to the SW this afternoon, but winds at the mixing height will remain generally southerly. Weather conditions will need to be closely monitored this afternoon. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. Any thunderstorm development over the region would be unfavorable for open burning, due to erratic winds and the potential for smoke down-mixing. In addition, the atmosphere could become unstable enough for the heat from field-burns to spawn thunderstorm development. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy. Chance of afternoon and evening showers or thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 50% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 3-6 mph; possibly becoming SW 3-8 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 5-10 mph; possibly becoming SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet early this afternoon; rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:26 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 9th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The offshore upper-level trough will slowly drift south, to off the northern California coastline, Tuesday and Wednesday. S-SE winds aloft will maintain a threat of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers. Temperatures should warm into the upper-80s both days. The upper-level trough is predicted to come onshore and move across the region Thursday and Friday. That will bring much cooler onshore flow along with ample marine clouds and a chance of showers. Temperatures should drop back into the mid-to-upper 70s. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be less than .10". The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 11 08:43:31 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 11 Aug 2015 15:43:31 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT TUE AUG 11, 2015 *** The Portland National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the western slopes of the northern and central Oregon Cascades, valid today until 11 p.m. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Cascades this afternoon and generally move to the NW. These storms have the potential to produce gusty winds, abundant lightning, and hail. Any lightning, combined with near-record dry fuels, poses a significant wildfire risk. *** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level low-pressure system, centered about 400 miles west of the southern Oregon coast, is feeding mid-level moisture and instability northward across Oregon. Skies are mostly cloudy across western Oregon this morning but with minimal shower activity. Daytime heating will further destabilize the air mass, likely leading to at least isolated shower and thundershower development over the Cascades this afternoon. SE flow aloft may direct these storms over the western foothills of the Cascades and the Willamette Valley later this afternoon through tonight. At the surface, there is balanced but weak onshore flow from Newport to Redmond. Transport layer winds may turn weakly northwesterly this afternoon, but winds at the mixing height will remain southeasterly. That is not a favorable wind pattern for evacuating smoke from the valley. In addition, any thunderstorm development over the region would create erratic winds and the potential for smoke down-mixing. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers or thundershowers through tonight. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 50% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-6 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about noon and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:25 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 10th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The offshore upper-level low-pressure area will continue to slowly drift south and should be off the northern California coastline by Wednesday. Expect partly cloudy skies with unstable S-SE flow aloft maintaining a threat of showers and thundershowers. Temperatures should remain in the upper-80s. The upper-level trough is predicted to swing NE across the region Thursday and Friday. That will bring much cooler onshore flow along with ample marine clouds and scattered showers. Temperatures will drop back into the mid-to-upper 70s. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be less than .10". Dry weather is predicted to return over the weekend with temperatures in the 80s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 11 11:58:08 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 11 Aug 2015 18:58:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT TUE AUG 11, 2015 *** The Portland National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the western slopes of the northern and central Oregon Cascades, valid today until 11 p.m. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Cascades this afternoon and generally move to the NW. These storms have the potential to produce gusty winds, abundant lightning, and hail. Any lightning, combined with near-record dry fuels, poses a significant wildfire risk. *** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level low-pressure system is centered about 350 miles west of the northern California coast. The counterclockwise circulation around it is feeding mid-level moisture and instability northward across Oregon, which produced some isolated shower and thundershowers on Monday. The air aloft warmed and stabilized a bit overnight, leaving only a veil of high mostly high clouds draped across the region at midday. Daytime heating will, once again, destabilize the air mass, likely leading to at least isolated shower and thundershower development over the Cascades this afternoon. SE flow aloft may direct these storms over the western foothills of the Cascades and the Willamette Valley later this through tonight. At the surface, the thermal trough is expanding westward into the Willamette Valley, with onshore flow from Newport to Salem but offshore flow from Redmond to Salem. Transport winds may turn weakly NNW this afternoon, but winds at the mixing height will remain southeasterly. That is not a favorable wind pattern for evacuating smoke from the valley. In addition, any thunderstorm development over the region would create erratic and gusty winds and increase the potential for down-mixing of smoke. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers or thundershowers through tonight. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:25 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 10th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level low-pressure area off the northern California coast will move very little on Wednesday. Expect partly cloudy skies with a marginally unstable S-SE flow aloft maintaining a threat of showers and thundershowers, mainly over the Cascades. Onshore flow may increase late in the day, creating a burning opportunity, but that is far from certain. Temperatures will likely hold in the upper-80s. The upper-level trough is predicted to swing NE across the region Thursday and Friday. That will bring much cooler onshore flow along with scattered showers and a chance of thundershowers...mainly late Thursday through Friday. Another burning opportunity is possible, just ahead of this transition to damp weather, Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will drop back into the mid-to-upper 70s. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be less than .10". Dry weather is predicted to return over the weekend with temperatures warming back into the 80s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 37376 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 12 08:55:05 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2015 15:55:05 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED AUG 12, 2015 *** The Red Flag Warning for the western slopes of the northern and central Oregon Cascades has expired, due to a decreased threat of lightning. *** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level low-pressure system is centered about 400 miles west of the northern California coast. The counterclockwise circulation around it is still feeding mid-level moisture and instability northward across Oregon, but not as much as the past two days. The air aloft has continued to warm and stabilized since yesterday. That has decreased, but not completely eliminated, the thundershower threat across the region. Daytime heating will, once again, destabilize the air mass, so isolated showers and thundershowers may development this afternoon, mainly over the Cascades. SE flow aloft is slowly becoming more southerly. At the surface, the thermal trough has shifted east of the Cascades. Increasing onshore flow may provide a burning opportunity this afternoon, once mixing heights reach about 3000 feet. However, continued southerly flow aloft and the threat of afternoon shower development are potential limiting factors. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thundershower. Salem's high temperature today will be near 89?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 2 p.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; SSW 5-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 11th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough is predicted to swing NE across the region Thursday and Friday. That will bring much cooler onshore flow along with scattered showers and a chance of thundershowers...mainly late Thursday through Friday. Another burning opportunity is possible, Thursday afternoon, ahead of this transition. Temperatures will drop back into the mid-to-upper 70s. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be near .10". Dry weather is predicted to return over the weekend with temperatures warming back into the 80s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 12 11:57:02 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2015 18:57:02 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT WED AUG 12, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level low-pressure system, off the northern California coast, is still producing a south-southeasterly flow aloft over Oregon. The air mass is slightly warmer and more stable today, which has decreased, but not completely eliminated, the thundershower threat across the region. Daytime heating will, once again, destabilize the air mass, so isolated shower and thundershower development, later this afternoon, can't be ruled out. At the surface, the thermal trough has shifted east of the Cascades. Increasing onshore flow may provide a burning opportunity this afternoon, once mixing heights reach 3000 feet, after about 2 p.m. However, SSE winds at the top of the mixing layer may limit today's burning potential. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. to begin closely monitoring transport winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and very warm. Slight chance of isolated late-day thundershowers, mainly over the Cascades. Salem's high temperature today will be near 89?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 2 p.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 11th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough is predicted to swing NE across the region Thursday and Friday. That will bring a few degrees of cooling on Thursday, which may have another burning opportunity. Much cooler and showery weather is likely Friday. Temperatures will drop back into the mid-to-upper 70s. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be near .10". Dry weather is expected over the weekend with temperatures back in the 80s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 13 08:56:07 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2015 15:56:07 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT THU AUG 13, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level low-pressure system remains about 350 miles off the northern California coast. South to SE flow aloft is circulating considerable wildfire smoke, from northern California and southern Oregon, northward across the region. Air quality sensors are showing moderately elevated smoke levels extending all the way to the northern Oregon Cascades. At the surface, increasing onshore flow has forced some marine clouds into the western valleys this morning, which should give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Daytime heating and the approaching upper-level trough will act together to destabilize the air mass, so isolated shower and thundershower development is possible by late this afternoon. Increasing onshore flow may provide a burning opportunity this afternoon, once mixing heights reach 3000 feet, after about 2 p.m. However, SSE winds above the mixing layer will continue to circulate wildfire smoke into the region. TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning clouds...mostly sunny but hazy this afternoon. A little cooler. Increasing chance of showers or thundershowers late today and overnight. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 2 p.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Variable 5 mph this morning; W 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5 mph this morning; WSW 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:22 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 12th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough is predicted to swing NE across the region on Friday. That will bring much cooler and showery weather along with a chance of thundershowers. Temperatures will drop back into the low-to-mid 70s. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be near .10". Dry weather is expected over the weekend with temperatures recovering back into the 80s. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 13 11:59:16 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2015 18:59:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT THU AUG 13, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level low-pressure system off the northern California coast is continuing to circulate considerable wildfire smoke northward across the region, via S-SE winds aloft. Air quality sensors are showing moderately elevated smoke levels extending as far north as the northern Oregon Cascades. At the surface, a thermal trough extends from central Washington into central Oregon. Onshore flow across NW Oregon forced marine low clouds into the Willamette Valley this morning. Cloudy skies are yielding to sunshine at midday, but the later start to heating today should drop maximum temperatures a few degrees compared to yesterday. The air mass aloft is still quite warm and stable, so there is only a minimal threat of isolated mountain shower or thundershower development later today. Onshore gradients are fairly evening stacked at midday and should continue to improve with daytime heting. Predicted westerly transport winds may provide a burning opportunity later this afternoon. However, SSE winds above the mixing layer will continue to circulate wildfire smoke into the region. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning clouds...mostly sunny but hazy this afternoon. A little cooler. Increasing chance of showers or thundershowers late today and overnight. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 2 p.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: W 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW-W 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:22 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 12th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough is predicted to swing NE across the region on Friday. That will bring much cooler and showery weather along with a chance of thundershowers. Temperatures will drop back into the low-to-mid 70s. Computer models remain consistent in predicting about .10" of rain to the Silverton Hills on Friday. Dry weather is expected over the weekend with temperatures recovering back into the 80s. Another upper-level trough may create favorable burning conditions as soon as Monday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 14 08:47:40 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2015 15:47:40 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 14, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level low is along the coast this morning. Marine clouds extend from the eastern Pacific to the Cascade crest. Morning radar showers some light showers moving from south to north in the south Coast Range but no showers elsewhere. Atmosphere has destabilized this morning from the upper low moving in with current mixing heights 4000 - 5000 ft. Transport winds are S to WSW at 8 - 15 mph. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked at +0.7 mb from Newport to Salem and +3.5 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level low will open into a trough later this morning and lift through the state today from SW to NE. Despite continuing negative gradient stacking, the trough moving through will create dynamic lift. With this lift is the possibility of some light showers later this morning and into the afternoon. However, if showers are minimal or spotty, good mixing and SW to WSW wind flow should make for burn opportunities this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73 degrees (average is 83). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent around 1:00 p.m. and reach a low of 52 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: S to SSW at 8 - 15 mph this morning, shifting to SW'erly at 8 - 18 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S to WSW this morning at 8 - 15 mph, becoming SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 4000 - 5000 ft rising above 5000 ft by 11 a.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:20 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, Aug 13: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level trough will quickly weaken as it moves east of the state on Saturday. This will be replaced by a weak trough that will remain over the state through the weekend. Skies clear and temperatures warm back into the 80s. Wind flow turns northerly. Another trough drops southward out of British Columbia on Monday and turns wind flow NW'erly during the afternoon, posing another chance for a burn opportunity. A ridge will follow on Tuesday and Wednesday with winds turning back to N to NE. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 14 11:45:51 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2015 18:45:51 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 14, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level low is opening up into a trough as it moves into the state. Marine clouds from the eastern Pacific remain banked up to the Cascade crest. A few light showers are moving northward in the Coast Range, otherwise no new shower development has showed up on radar. Atmosphere is unstable with transport and surface winds S to SW at 10 - 16 mph. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked at +1.3 mb from Newport to Salem and +2.8 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level trough will lift through the state today and tonight from SW to NE. The trough moving through will create dynamic lift and bring the possibility of some light showers later this afternoon. Will monitor carefully to see whether any showers develop or move into the Silverton hills area. SW to WSW wind flow and good mixing should make for burn opportunities. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74 degrees (average is 83). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent around noon and reach a low of 52 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: S to SW at 8 - 18 mph Transport winds: SSW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 ft. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:20 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, Aug 13: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level trough will quickly weaken as it moves east of the state on Saturday. This will be replaced by a weak trough that will remain over the state through the weekend. Skies clear and temperatures warm back into the 80s. Wind flow N to NW on Saturday and northerly on Sunday. Another trough drops southward out of British Columbia on Monday and turns wind flow NW'erly during the afternoon, providing another chance for a burn opportunity. A ridge will follow on Tuesday and Wednesday with winds turning back to N to NE. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 17 08:56:59 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2015 15:56:59 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON AUG 17, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions should be reached this afternoon (due to low humidity and wind).*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge, centered in the Gulf of Alaska, is producing a dry NW flow aloft over Oregon and keeping weather systems too far to the north to have a significant impact on our weather. Warming aloft will suppress afternoon mixing and allow temperatures to climb to around 90?F. At the surface, a thermal trough will strengthen over SW Oregon today, which will lead to increasing north winds in the Willamette Valley this afternoon. The combination of brisk north winds and low humidity will likely put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions around mid-afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and very warm. Hazy at times due to wildfire smoke. Salem's high temperature today will be near 91?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 11 a.m. and below 30% by 3 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-15 mph this morning; N 10-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph this morning; N 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2 p.m. and to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:15 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 16th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge is predicted to strengthen over the region on Tuesday. Further warming aloft will keep mixing heights suppressed with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 90s (possibly breaking daily records). Dry north winds will continue with State Fire Marshal Conditions likely being reached again Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will retreat slightly into the Gulf of Alaska with minor cooling aloft over Oregon. The surface thermal trough is expected to shift east of the Cascades in the afternoon...initiating onshore flow into NW Oregon and capping temperatures in the mid-90s. It is unlikely that this transition will occur soon enough in the day to create a burning opportunity. On Thursday, a strengthening NW flow aloft will bring stronger onshore flow and more significant cooling to western Oregon. Any burning opportunities will depend on the timing and strength of this marine push, with temperatures expected to drop back close to average Thursday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 17 11:56:41 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2015 18:56:41 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON AUG 17, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions should be reached this afternoon (due to low humidity and wind).*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strengthening upper-level ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is producing a dry NW flow aloft over Oregon. Warm air aloft will suppress afternoon mixing and allow temperatures to climb to around 90?F. Air quality is generally good today across NW Oregon, but N-NE winds in the mixing layer may bring additional wildfire smoke into the region this afternoon and tonight. At the surface, a thermal trough will build over SW Oregon today...leading to increasing north winds in the Willamette Valley this afternoon. The combination of brisk north winds and dropping humidity levels will likely put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions around mid-afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and very warm. Hazy at times due to wildfire smoke. Salem's high temperature today will be near 91?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 30% around 3 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2 p.m. and to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:15 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 16th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge is predicted to strengthen over the region on Tuesday. Further warming aloft will keep mixing heights suppressed with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 90s (possibly breaking daily records). Dry north winds will slacken slightly. State Fire Marshal Conditions are likely Tuesday afternoon due to hot temperatures and low humidity. On Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will weaken with minor cooling aloft over Oregon. The surface thermal trough is expected to shift east of the Cascades in the afternoon...initiating onshore flow into NW Oregon and capping temperatures in the mid-90s. It is unlikely that this transition will occur soon enough in the day to create a burning opportunity, with the valley likely staying near State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions in the afternoon. On Thursday, a strengthening NW flow aloft will bring more significant onshore flow and cooling to western Oregon. Temperatures are expected to drop back close to average. A burning opportunity is possible but will depend on the timing of the marine push. Marine clouds should penetrate into the Willamette Valley Friday morning but clear in the afternoon. No precipitation is expected, but temperatures will struggle to hit 80?F. Afternoon NW transport winds may provide another burning opportunity, if there is not too much gradient-stacking from the previous day's marine push. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 18 08:42:24 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 18 Aug 2015 15:42:24 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT TUE AUG 18, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions are likely this afternoon.*** ***A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Willamette Valley from 11 a.m. today through 6 p.m. Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected.*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge will reach peak strength today with a very dry and warm NW flow aloft over Oregon. Very warm air aloft will suppress afternoon mixing and allow temperatures to climb to near 100?F. Air quality is generally good across NW Oregon, but there is some haze, due to area wildfires, mainly near the Cascades. N-NE winds may bring additional wildfire smoke into the valley this afternoon and tonight. A building surface thermal trough along the coast has turned pressure gradients offshore, which will keep the air mass very dry and allow for maximum warming of surface temperatures this afternoon. The combination of heat, low humidity levels, and wind should put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions early this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny with record heat. Hazy at times due to wildfire smoke. Salem's high temperature today will be near 100?F (record: 97?F set in 1967). Relative humidity: Dropping below 30% by noon and to near 15% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 5-12 mph this morning; N 10-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 10-15 mph this morning; NNE 10-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 3 p.m. and to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:14 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 17th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will weaken with increasing NW flow and minor cooling aloft over Oregon. The surface thermal trough is expected to shift east of the Cascades in the afternoon...initiating onshore flow into NW Oregon. That should cap temperatures in the mid-90s but likely occur too late in the day to create a burning opportunity. Red Flag Warnings are in effect through Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday, a strengthening NW flow aloft will bring more significant onshore flow and cooling to western Oregon. High temperatures are expected to drop 15-20 degrees. A significant burning opportunity is possible Thursday afternoon, depending on the strength and timing of the marine push. Further deepening of the marine layer should force low clouds into the Willamette Valley Friday morning, but no precipitation is expected as far south as the Silverton Hills. Skies should clear Friday afternoon, but temperatures will hold near 80?F. Afternoon NW transport winds may provide a burning opportunity, if gradients can become favorable. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 18 11:21:20 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 18 Aug 2015 18:21:20 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:20 AM PDT TUE AUG 18, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions are likely this afternoon.*** ***A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Willamette Valley until 6 p.m. Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected.*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge will reach peak strength today with a very dry and warm NW flow aloft over Oregon. A building surface thermal trough, along the coast, is showing signs of shifting into the Willamette Valley. That will promote maximum heating this afternoon and allow additional smoke, from wildfires east of the Cascades, to enter the valley. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny with record heat. Hazy at times due to wildfire smoke. Salem's high temperature today will be near 100?F (record: 97?F set in 1967). Relative humidity: Dropping below 15% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 3 p.m. and to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:14 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 17th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will weaken with increasing NW flow and minor cooling aloft over Oregon. The surface thermal trough is expected to shift east of the Cascades in the afternoon...initiating onshore flow into NW Oregon. That should cap temperatures in the mid-90s but will likely occur too late in the day to create a burning opportunity. On Thursday, a strengthening NW flow aloft will bring more significant onshore flow and cooling to western Oregon. Temperatures are expected to drop 15-20 degrees. Predicted WNW transport winds may provide a significant burning opportunity, depending on the strength and timing of the marine push. Further deepening of the marine layer should force low clouds into the Willamette Valley Friday morning, but no precipitation is expected as far south as the Silverton Hills. A building upper-level ridge should clear skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will top out near 80?F. A limited burning opportunity is possible, but transport winds may be too northerly. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 19 08:41:35 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 19 Aug 2015 15:41:35 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0819a.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED AUG 19, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to winds, temperatures & humidity, are likely to be observed this afternoon*** ***A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Willamette Valley and western Cascade foothills until 6 p.m.*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge over the region is beginning to weaken, and will shift southeast of the Willamette Valley later today. This will keep elevated wildfire smoke over the region, with hazy conditions at the surface as a thermal trough moves towards the Silverton Hills this afternoon. Northerly winds will not shift to northwesterly until late this afternoon with suppressed mixing heights. State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions are likely and critical fire weather conditions are not expected to provide favorable open burning opportunities today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Hazy with very warm temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and rising to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:12 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 18th: High 97?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The atmosphere will continue to change for the remainder of the week, as cooler onshore flow returns to the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level trough will move south along the Canadian coastline Thursday, cooling the air aloft and improving mixing conditions across Oregon. This will help clear out remnant smoke aloft and onshore flow will build ahead of a mild sea breeze, suggesting favorable opportunities for open burning. By Friday morning, the deeper marine layer will require several hours of heating to lift and scatter clouds. Onshore gradients may improve enough to provide favorable burning opportunities again with better mixing conditions in the afternoon. This points to a late afternoon window for open burning ahead of the weekend. Winds are expected to be more northerly, and the strength & timing of the sea breeze will determine the overall possibility for open burning. Wildfire smoke is expected to draw back into the Willamette Valley as the weekend begins Friday evening. The weather pattern over the weekend will see a return to warm and drier conditions, as a weak upper-level ridge forms off the coast of Oregon. No rainfall is forecast for the Silverton Hills. The warming air aloft will suppress mixing conditions, and smoke from regional wildfires may create a hazy afternoon Saturday as temperatures remain above seasonal averages. A weak sea breeze Sunday afternoon with partly cloudy skies will return onshore flow to the region, and the early part of next week may see favorable open burning opportunities as an upper-level trough approaches the Oregon coast. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0819a.htm.docx Type: application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document Size: 16443 bytes Desc: fbs0819a.htm.docx URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 19 11:45:06 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 19 Aug 2015 18:45:06 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0819p.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED AUG 19, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to winds, temperatures & humidity, are likely to be observed this afternoon*** ***A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Willamette Valley and western Cascade foothills until 6 p.m.*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge over the region is beginning to weaken, and will shift southeast of the Willamette Valley later today. This will keep elevated wildfire smoke over the region, with hazy conditions at the surface. Calm winds have remained over the southern Willamette Valley as a thermal trough has approached the I-5 corridor. Onshore gradients from Newport to Salem are +2.6mb, but offshore gradients from Redmond to Salem persist at -0.8mb. State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions are likely and critical fire weather conditions are not expected to provide favorable open burning opportunities today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Hazy with very warm temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and rising to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:12 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 18th: High 97?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The atmosphere will continue to change for the remainder of the week, as cooler onshore flow returns to the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level trough will move south along the Canadian coastline Thursday, cooling the air aloft and improving mixing conditions across Oregon. This will help clear out remnant smoke aloft and onshore flow will build ahead of a mild sea breeze, suggesting favorable opportunities for open burning. By Friday morning, the deeper marine layer will require several hours of heating to lift and scatter clouds. Onshore gradients may improve enough to provide favorable burning opportunities again with better mixing conditions in the afternoon. This points to a late afternoon window for open burning ahead of the weekend. Winds are expected to be more northerly, and the strength & timing of the sea breeze will determine the overall possibility for open burning. Wildfire smoke is expected to draw back into the Willamette Valley as the weekend begins Friday evening. The weather pattern over the weekend will see a return to warm and drier conditions, as a weak upper-level ridge forms off the coast of Oregon. No rainfall is forecast for the Silverton Hills. The warming air aloft will suppress mixing conditions, and smoke from regional wildfires may create a hazy afternoon Saturday as temperatures remain above seasonal averages. A weak sea breeze Sunday afternoon with partly cloudy skies will return onshore flow to the region, and the early part of next week may see favorable open burning opportunities as an upper-level trough approaches the Oregon coast. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0819p.htm.docx Type: application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document Size: 16461 bytes Desc: fbs0819p.htm.docx URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 19 12:18:12 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 19 Aug 2015 19:18:12 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 12:15 PM PDT WED AUG 19, 2015 ***This is only a TEST MESSAGE.*** -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 20 08:38:27 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 15:38:27 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU AUG 20, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough near the Canadian coast has slowed down, and will continue to cool the atmosphere with westerly flow aloft. Down at the surface, a marine layer has brought clouds south into the Willamette Valley. Clouds are already beginning to lift and break up, and are expected to dissipate completely this afternoon. Onshore flow will prevail today, helping to keep temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Gradients are the key factor to monitor today and will determine whether favorable open burning opportunities materialize this afternoon and for how long they persist. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning; becoming Mostly Sunny this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3500 feet by 11 a.m. and rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:10 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 19th: High 98?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Dense coastal clouds are off the coast of Oregon and expected to infiltrate the Willamette Valley with a strong marine push Friday morning. Temperatures may remain below seasonal averages as a result. Favorable burning conditions will depend upon whether or not there are sufficient gaps in the clouds Friday to allow daytime heating to overcome stacked gradients. A weaker afternoon sea breeze is expected, as an upper-level ridge approaches Oregon Friday evening. The weather pattern over the weekend will see a return to warm and drier conditions due to the influence of this weak upper-level ridge. No rainfall is forecast for the Silverton Hills. The warming air aloft will suppress mixing conditions, and smoke from regional wildfires may create a hazy afternoon Saturday as temperatures remain above seasonal averages. A weak sea breeze Sunday afternoon with partly cloudy skies will return onshore flow to the region. Monday continues to show promise for open burning opportunities, as an upper-level trough shifts out of the Gulf of Alaska and moves towards Vancouver Island, enhancing the onshore flow across Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 20 11:39:09 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 18:39:09 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU AUG 20, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough near the Canadian coast has slowed down, and will continue to cool the atmosphere with westerly flow aloft. Down at the surface, a marine layer has brought clouds south into the Willamette Valley. Clouds are expected to dissipate completely this afternoon. Onshore gradients from Newport to Salem are +1.5mb, with continued onshore gradients from Salem to Redmond of +3.6mb. Onshore flow will prevail today, helping to keep temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Gradients are the key factor to monitor today and will determine whether favorable open burning opportunities materialize this afternoon and for how long they persist. A wildfire burning near Detroit, Oregon is expected to serve as a source for localized smoke tonight, as drainage winds develop after dark and follow the Highway 22 corridor down into the Willamette Valley. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning; becoming Mostly Sunny this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently 3500 feet and rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:10 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 19th: High 98?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Dense coastal clouds are off the coast of Oregon and expected to infiltrate the Willamette Valley with a strong marine push Friday morning. Temperatures may remain below seasonal averages as a result. Favorable burning conditions will depend upon whether or not there are sufficient gaps in the clouds Friday to allow daytime heating to overcome stacked gradients. A weaker afternoon sea breeze is expected, as an upper-level ridge approaches Oregon Friday evening. The weather pattern over the weekend will see a return to warm and drier conditions due to the influence of this weak upper-level ridge. No rainfall is forecast for the Silverton Hills. The warming air aloft will suppress mixing conditions, and smoke from regional wildfires may create a hazy afternoon Saturday as temperatures remain above seasonal averages. A weak sea breeze Sunday afternoon with partly cloudy skies will return onshore flow to the region. Monday continues to show promise for open burning opportunities, as an upper-level trough shifts out of the Gulf of Alaska and moves towards Vancouver Island, enhancing the onshore flow across Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 21 08:46:31 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 15:46:31 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 21, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is passing along the Canadian border, with an upper-level ridge moving in behind it later tonight. Down at the surface, this will create an area of higher pressure off the coast of Oregon, making winds more northerly today. Partly cloudy skies will allow the atmosphere to heat evenly across the Willamette Valley, but gradients are not expected to be favorably aligned with onshore flow until mid-afternoon. This indicates a brief window of favorable open burning opportunities later today, though wind direction will need to be monitored closely. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy this morning becoming Mostly Sunny this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 10-15 mph this morning; N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 4000 feet by 11 a.m. and rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:09 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 20th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern over the weekend will see a return to warm and drier conditions due to the influence of a weak upper-level ridge. No rainfall is forecast for the Silverton Hills. The warming air aloft will suppress mixing conditions, and smoke from regional wildfires may create a hazy afternoon Saturday as temperatures remain above seasonal averages. A weak sea breeze Sunday afternoon with partly cloudy skies will return onshore flow to the region. Monday continues to show promise for open burning opportunities, as an upper-level trough shifts out of the Gulf of Alaska and moves towards Vancouver Island, enhancing the onshore flow across Oregon. Westerly flow at the surface should be accompanied by favorable gradients by the early afternoon. A slow-moving storm system will develop west of Vancouver Island mid-week, and is expected to stay off the coast of North America. This may lead to multiple days of onshore flow with clouds over Oregon, but no appreciable rainfall is expected in the Silverton Hills at this time. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 21 11:38:55 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 18:38:55 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 21, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is passing along the Canadian border, with an upper-level ridge moving in behind it later tonight. Down at the surface, this will create an area of higher pressure off the coast of Oregon, making winds more northerly today and becoming northeasterly after sunset. Clearing skies over the Silverton Hills will allow the atmosphere to continue heating, but gradients are not expected to be favorably aligned with onshore flow until mid-afternoon. Onshore gradients from Newport to Salem are currently +0.8mb and onshore from Salem to Redmond +4.7mb. This indicates a brief window of favorable open burning opportunities later today, though wind direction will need to be monitored closely. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently 3500 feet and rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:09 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 20th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern over the weekend will see a return to warm and drier conditions due to the influence of a weak upper-level ridge. No rainfall is forecast for the Silverton Hills. The warming air aloft will suppress mixing conditions, and smoke from regional wildfires may create a hazy afternoon Saturday as temperatures remain above seasonal averages. A weak sea breeze Sunday afternoon with partly cloudy skies will return onshore flow to the region. Monday continues to show promise for open burning opportunities, as an upper-level trough shifts out of the Gulf of Alaska and moves towards Vancouver Island, enhancing the onshore flow across Oregon. Westerly flow at the surface should be accompanied by favorable gradients by the early afternoon. A slow-moving storm system will develop west of Vancouver Island mid-week, and is expected to stay off the coast of North America. This may lead to multiple days of onshore flow with clouds over Oregon, but no appreciable rainfall is expected in the Silverton Hills at this time. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 24 08:57:17 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 15:57:17 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON AUG 24, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Substantial wildfire smoke covered virtually the entire state over the weekend, including the Willamette Valley. Increasing SW flow aloft began the process of clearing smoke from NW Oregon Sunday evening. By this morning, good air quality had returned to the northern Willamette Valley, about as far south as Salem, with moderate to unhealthy air quality continuing across the central and south valley. The greatest concentrations of smoke remain in the Cascade foothills, from Silverton to Sweet Home. Air quality will continue to improve across NW Oregon today, as onshore gradients increase. SW flow aloft may destabilize the air mass enough for some thunderstorm development over the Cascades this afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with slightly cooler temperatures. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Wildfire smoke clearing, from west to east, across the region. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-6 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 1 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:03 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 23rd: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very little change in the weather pattern is expected on Tuesday, with a mostly dry SW flow aloft continuing over Oregon. That should keep most of the wildfire smoke east of the valley, but there could be some drainage of smoke into the western Cascade foothills, especially in the overnight hours. Weak onshore flow is expected to Wednesday afternoon, which will help to clear wildfire smoke from the valley. However, the flow aloft may turn enough southerly to pull elevated wildfire smoke, from SW Oregon fires, northward across NW Oregon. On Thursday, SW flow aloft is predicted to strengthen and turn gradients onshore at all levels. That will begin a cooling trend and should clear any remaining wildfire smoke from NW Oregon. By Friday, the air mass may moisten enough for a threat of showers across western Oregon, but computer models have been inconsistent that far out. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 24 11:57:17 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 18:57:17 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON AUG 24, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft and weak onshore flow at the surface are working together to push wildfire smoke out of NW Oregon. Air quality is continuing to improve, from the NW to SE, across the Willamette Valley. "Good" air quality is being observed as far south as Silverton along the Cascade foothills and all the way to Eugene in the heart of the valley. Decreasing smoke levels are still somewhat elevated from Lyons to Sweet Home. SW flow aloft may destabilize the air mass enough for some thunderstorm development over the Cascades this afternoon. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and slightly above average temperatures. Increasing NW winds in the transport layer will shear to the SW above the mixing height this afternoon. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Wildfire smoke clearing, from west to east, across the region. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 1 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:03 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 23rd: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Only minor changes in the weather pattern are expected through Wednesday. A SW flow aloft should keep temperatures above average. Skies will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Cascades. Most of the wildfire smoke will stay east of the region, but nighttime drainage of smoke into the western Cascade foothills is possible. Thursday and Friday, increasing onshore flow will bring slow cooling and should clear any remaining wildfire smoke from NW Oregon. Some computer models are showers spreading across western Oregon on Friday, but that is still uncertain. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 25 08:58:36 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 15:58:36 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT TUE AUG 25, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions Possible This Afternoon. *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft and weak onshore flow at the surface have finally cleared the bulk of the wildfire smoke from NW Oregon. Lyons and Springfield still have slightly elevated smoke levels this morning, but all NW Oregon air monitoring stations are indicating "good" air quality. The SW flow aloft may destabilize the air mass enough for isolated thunderstorm development over the Cascades this afternoon. Otherwise, expect fair skies and slightly warmer temperatures today, due to less wildfire smoke. Surface and transport winds are expected to stay mostly northerly this afternoon, which would be a limiting factor for burning. In addition, the air mass remains very dry, with afternoon humidity levels expected to drop well below 30%. Wind speeds will need to be closely monitored for State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions (RH of 30% or less and wind speeds of 15 mph or greater). TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 11 a.m. and below 30% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-8 mph this morning; N 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; N 7-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 1 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 24th: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, centered about 800 miles off the northern Oregon coast, will move very little through Thursday. Continued dry SW flow aloft will maintain partly cloudy and warm weather with just a chance for isolated afternoon thundershowers over the Cascades. Wildfire smoke should generally remain east of the region. Increasing onshore flow may create favorable burning conditions, especially on Thursday. The upper-level trough is expected to advance towards the coast on Friday. Increasing onshore flow will bring clouds, cooler temperatures, and the threat of showers. Computer models have slowed down their timing for the onset of showers, to late Friday afternoon, so another burning opportunity is possible. Wetting rains are still expected Friday night and Saturday, with over one-half inch of rain possible in the Silverton Hills. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 25 11:55:54 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 18:55:54 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT TUE AUG 25, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions Possible This Afternoon. *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft and very weak onshore flow at the surface slowly cleared the bulk of the wildfire smoke from NW Oregon. Lyons and Sweet Home still have slightly elevated smoke levels at midday, but all NW Oregon air monitoring stations are indicating "good" air quality. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible over the Cascades this afternoon. Otherwise, expect fair skies and slightly warmer temperatures today, due to less wildfire smoke. Onshore gradients are very weak and slightly negatively stacked. Newport to Salem was +0.8mb and Salem to Redmond was +1.9mb at 11 a.m. Gradients should become more favorably stacked later this afternoon. NNW transport are expected this afternoon but may stay too northerly to allow for burning. In addition, the air mass is very dry. Relative humidity values should drop below 30% this afternoon, so wind speeds of 15 mph or greater will put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy and warm. Still a little hazy near the Cascades. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 30% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNW 7-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 1 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 24th: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, centered about 800 miles off the northern Oregon coast, will move very little through Thursday. Continued dry SW flow aloft will maintain partly cloudy and warm weather with just a chance for isolated afternoon thundershowers over the Cascades. Wildfire smoke should remain east of the region. Increasing onshore flow may create favorable burning conditions in the afternoons, especially by Thursday. The upper-level trough is expected to advance towards the coast on Friday. Increasing onshore flow will bring clouds, cooler temperatures, and the threat of showers. Computer models have slowed down their timing for the onset of showers, so another burning opportunity may be possible Friday afternoon, ahead of the rain. Over one-half inch of rain is possible, in the Silverton Hills, Friday night and Saturday. Another system may bring additional showers on Sunday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 26 08:48:53 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 15:48:53 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED AUG 26, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Little change is expected in the overall weather pattern today. A nearly stationary upper-level trough, centered about 800 miles off of the northern Oregon coast, will maintain a dry SW flow aloft and very weak onshore flow at the surface. That is keeping area wildfire smoke confined mostly to the Cascades eastward. Air quality remained good overnight in the Willamette Valley, but there is still smoke visible over the Cascades this morning. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible again this afternoon over the Cascades. Otherwise, expect fair skies and above average temperatures. The air aloft has warmed since Tuesday, which will make for lower mixing heights today. Relative humidity values should drop below 30% again this afternoon, with a continued elevated wildfire risk. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 11 a.m. and below 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Var 2-6 mph this morning; W 2-7 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Var 5 mph this morning; SW 5-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 25th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The offshore upper-level trough will move very little through Thursday. Continued dry SW flow aloft will maintain partly cloudy and warm weather with a chance for isolated afternoon thundershowers over the Cascades. Increasing onshore flow should keep wildfire smoke confined to the Cascades eastward, but the risk for wildfires will remain elevated across western Oregon. The upper-level trough is expected to advance towards the coast on Friday. Increasing SW flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface will bring clouds and cooler temperatures. Wetting rains are expected to move into the region Friday night and Saturday, with over one-half inch possible in the Silverton Hills. Additional weather systems are expected to move across the region Sunday and Tuesday, bringing more rain and keeping temperatures cool. That should significantly reduce the wildfire risk across western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 26 11:54:59 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 18:54:59 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED AUG 26, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Little change is expected in the overall weather pattern today. A nearly stationary upper-level trough, centered about 800 miles off of the northern Oregon coast, is maintaining a dry SW flow aloft over Oregon. Very weak onshore flow (Newport to Salem +1.7mb and Salem to Redmond +0.7mb) is keeping area wildfire smoke mostly east of the valley, but some haze and elevated smoke is still visible over the Cascades. Skies will be mostly sunny today with above average temperatures. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Cascades. The air aloft is warm, so mixing heights will not likely climb above 3000 feet until after 2 p.m. Although State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions are not expected this afternoon, relative humidity levels should drop below 30%, and the risk of wildfires remains elevated. A PIBAL is schedule for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy and seasonably warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light...becoming W 3-8 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Light...becoming SW 5-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 25th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The offshore upper-level trough will move very little through Thursday. Continued dry SW flow aloft will maintain mostly sunny and warm weather with a chance for isolated afternoon thundershowers over the Cascades. Increasing onshore flow should keep wildfire smoke east of the valley. A major change in the weather pattern will begin on Friday, as the upper-level trough advances towards the coast. Increasing SW flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface will bring clouds and cooler temperatures. Wetting rains are expected to move into the region Friday night and Saturday, with over one-half inch possible in the Silverton Hills (the most significant rain for the area since June 1st). Additional weather systems are expected to move across the region Sunday and Tuesday, bringing lighter amounts of rain and keeping temperatures cool. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 27 08:36:10 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 15:36:10 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU AUG 27, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is approaching the coast of Oregon, bringing abundant clouds under southwesterly flow aloft. Down at the surface, an area of low pressure is forming frontal boundaries with isolated showers approaching southwestern Oregon and far northwestern Washington. Onshore flow will increase over the next 24 hours, as the atmosphere continues to mix and push regional wildfire smoke further northeast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Cascades this afternoon. Rainfall is projected to reach the entire Oregon coast just before midnight this evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy skies today; becoming overcast this evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 12 p.m. and rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 26th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An unstable weather pattern begins on Friday, as the first in a series of disturbances moves through the Pacific Northwest. The upper-level trough will shift east throughout the day, bringing in much cooler air aloft from the Gulf of Alaska. The surface frontal system will produce wetting rains, as vigorous mixing of the atmosphere occurs throughout the day. Just over 0.10 of an inch of rain is forecast for the Silverton Hills. Onshore flow will become more northwesterly as a cold front passes the Silverton Hills Friday afternoon with heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Foul weather sets in for the weekend, as a second upper-level trough off the coast of California taps into tropical moisture over the Pacific Ocean. A fast-moving surface frontal system will again bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to western Oregon, with heavier showers in higher elevations. Showery weather will persist overnight into Sunday, with rainfall slowly tapering off before sunset. At this time, ~1.5 inches of rainfall are projected for the Silverton Hills over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft sets up for Monday, with an area of higher pressure forming off the coast of Oregon. This will maintain onshore flow, while allowing the atmosphere to dry out as temperatures increase closer to seasonal averages. Another upper-level disturbance will be developing in the Gulf of Alaska, and may bring another day or two of late-summer showers ahead of the Labor Day weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 27 11:42:54 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 18:42:54 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU AUG 27, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is approaching the coast of Oregon, bringing abundant clouds under southwesterly flow aloft. Down at the surface, an area of low pressure is forming frontal boundaries with isolated showers approaching southwestern Oregon and far northwestern Washington. Onshore flow will increase over the next 24 hours, as the atmosphere continues to mix and push regional wildfire smoke further northeast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Cascades this afternoon. Rainfall is projected to reach the entire Oregon coast just before midnight this evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy skies today; becoming overcast this evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 12 p.m. and rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 26th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An unstable weather pattern begins on Friday, as the first in a series of disturbances moves through the Pacific Northwest. The upper-level trough will shift east throughout the day, bringing in much cooler air aloft from the Gulf of Alaska. The surface frontal system will produce wetting rains, as vigorous mixing of the atmosphere occurs throughout the day. Just less than 0.10 of an inch of rain is forecast for the Silverton Hills. Onshore flow will become more northwesterly as a cold front passes the Silverton Hills Friday afternoon with heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Foul weather sets in for the weekend, as a second upper-level trough off the coast of California taps into tropical moisture over the Pacific Ocean. A fast-moving surface frontal system will again bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to western Oregon, with heavier showers in higher elevations. Showery weather will persist overnight into Sunday, with rainfall slowly tapering off before sunset. At this time, ~1.25 inches of rainfall are projected for the Silverton Hills over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft sets up for Monday, with an area of higher pressure forming off the coast of Oregon. This will maintain onshore flow under mostly cloudy skies, allowing the atmosphere to dry out as temperatures increase closer to seasonal averages. Another upper-level disturbance will be developing in the Gulf of Alaska, and will generate isolated late-summer showers ahead of the Labor Day weekend. These showers will become more widespread into the holiday weekend as remnant moisture from Tropical Storms Ignacio and Jimena gets incorporated into the westerly flow. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 28 08:45:33 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 15:45:33 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 28, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is off the coast of Oregon, producing southwesterly flow across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a storm system with frontal boundaries has formed off the coast of California and will track northeast towards Oregon today. Cloudy skies will keep temperatures just below seasonal averages, with onshore flow keeping the atmosphere well-mixed throughout the day. Light rain at times will become more showery after sunset as a cold front approaches the Silverton Hills, but less than 0.10 of an inch is expected to fall today. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Cascades this evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy with light rain showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 45% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph this morning; SW 15-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 5000 feet throughout the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 27th: High 90?F; Rainfall: Trace") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 125) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Foul weather sets in for the weekend, as a second upper-level trough off the coast of California taps into tropical moisture over the Pacific Ocean. A fast-moving surface frontal system will again bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to western Oregon, with heavier showers in higher elevations. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur on Saturday morning. Moderate showers move in again overnight into Sunday, with rainfall slowly tapering off by sunset. At this time, ~1.2 inches of rainfall are projected for the Silverton Hills over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft sets up for Monday, with an area of higher pressure forming off the coast of Oregon. This will maintain onshore flow, while allowing the atmosphere to dry out as temperatures increase closer to seasonal averages. Another upper-level disturbance will be developing in the Gulf of Alaska, and may tap into remnant moisture from Tropical Storms Ignacio and Jimena for more late-summer showers ahead of the Labor Day weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 28 11:36:47 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 18:36:47 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 28, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is off the coast of Oregon, producing southwesterly flow across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a storm system with frontal boundaries has formed off the coast of California and will slowly track northeast towards Oregon today. Cloudy skies will keep temperatures just below seasonal averages, with onshore flow keeping the atmosphere well-mixed throughout the day. Calm weather becomes showery after sunset as a cold front approaches the Silverton Hills, but less than 0.10 of an inch is expected to fall today. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Cascades this evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Cloudy with rain showers late tonight. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 45% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 15-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 5000 feet throughout the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 27th: High 90?F; Rainfall: Trace") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 125) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Foul weather sets in for the weekend, as a second upper-level trough off the coast of California taps into tropical moisture over the Pacific Ocean. A fast-moving surface frontal system will again bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to western Oregon, with heavier showers in higher elevations. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur on Saturday morning. Moderate showers move in again overnight into Sunday, with rainfall slowly tapering off by sunset. At this time, ~0.9 of an inch of rainfall is projected for the Silverton Hills over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft sets up for Monday, with an area of higher pressure forming off the coast of Oregon. This will maintain onshore flow, while allowing the atmosphere to dry out as temperatures increase closer to seasonal averages. Another upper-level disturbance will be developing in the Gulf of Alaska, and may tap into remnant moisture from Tropical Storms Ignacio and Jimena for more late-summer showers ahead of the Labor Day weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 31 08:55:24 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 31 Aug 2015 15:55:24 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON AUG 31, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The first significant rain of the summer fell over the weekend, with the Salem Airport receiving .27" on Saturday and .44" on Sunday. The rain had mostly ended by noon Sunday with brisk west winds helping to speed up the drying process, of damp fields, Sunday afternoon. A strong upper-level trough, in the Gulf of Alaska, is producing a westerly flow aloft over Oregon today. Another frontal system will bring rain to much of western Washington and the NW corner of Oregon today, but it appears that the rain will stay just north of the Silverton Hills. Surface gradients are southerly this morning and will turn southwesterly this afternoon. SW transport winds and excellent mixing heights will make for favorable ventilation conditions today. Wind speeds and the dampness of fields will be limiting factors for burning this afternoon, as well as an ongoing threat of light rain. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain this afternoon and evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by noon and below 50% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph this morning; SW 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 30th: High 73?F; Rainfall: .44") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will spin another cold front onshore Tuesday. Ahead of the front, SW transport winds and high mixing heights will make for favorable ventilation conditions, However, wind speeds may to too strong to allow for burning. Light rain is expected to make it as far south as Salem later Tuesday afternoon and evening rainfall totals near one-tenth of an inch. The upper-level trough is predicted to move over Washington and Oregon Wednesday through Friday, for continued cool and unstable conditions with scattered showers likely. Rainfall totals will be mostly between one-tenth and one-quarter of an inch. Drier and warmer weather is expected over the Labor Day weekend, with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 31 11:53:02 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 31 Aug 2015 18:53:02 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT MON AUG 31, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Up to an inch of rain fell in the Silverton Hills over the weekend. The rain had mostly ending by noon Sunday with brisk west winds and dropping humidity levels hastening the drying process. A strong upper-level trough, in the Gulf of Alaska, is producing a westerly flow aloft over Oregon today. A frontal system is bringing light rain and gusty south winds to western Washington and cloudy skies to the NW corner of Oregon. Just ahead of the front, skies are mostly sunny across the central and southern Willamette Valley. Clouds will advance south and east, across the central Willamette Valley, this afternoon, but rain should stay north of the Silverton Hills. SW Surface and transport winds will combine with high mixing heights to create favorable ventilation conditions this afternoon. Wind speeds and the dampness of fields will be potential limiting factors for burning, as well as the threat of light rain. A PIBAL is scheduled for 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of light rain by this evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 50% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-15 mph. Transport winds: SW 15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 30th: High 73?F; Rainfall: .44") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will spin another cold front onshore Tuesday. Ahead of the front, SW transport winds and high mixing heights will make for favorable ventilation conditions. However, increasing wind speeds may limit the potential for burning. Light rain is expected to make it as far south as Salem by Tuesday evening. Wednesday through Friday, the upper-level trough is predicted to move over Oregon. That will keep temperatures below average with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Rainfall totals will range mostly from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch. Drier and warmer weather is expected over the Labor Day weekend, with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: