From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 1 11:26:13 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 1 Jul 2015 18:26:13 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:20 AM PDT WED JUL 1, 2015 *** This is a test message. The information is valid. *** *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions are likely this afternoon. *** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong ridge of high pressure will bring sunshine and very warm temperatures today. Surface pressure gradients are weakly onshore from Newport to Salem but offshore from Redmond to Salem. Therefore, surface winds should remain northerly this afternoon. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidity, and wind should put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions later this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 97?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to below 30% around 2 p.m. Surface winds: N 7-13 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, June 30th: High 95?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge will remain over the region on Thursday for continued hot and dry weather. Valley temperatures will approach 100?F. The flow aloft will turn northwesterly on Friday with weak onshore flow developing and capping afternoon temperatures in the mid-90s. Little change is expected through the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 6 08:47:21 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 6 Jul 2015 15:47:21 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Field Burning Forecast - Morning update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 6, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from noon until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level split flow pattern remains over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level ridge to the north and a weak upper low to the south. Skies are mostly clear in the Willamette Valley this morning with marine low clouds pushing into the coastal gaps this morning. Morning sounding shows a stable layer up through 5000 ft. Low level wind flow is W to NW at 3 - 6 mph up to about 2000 ft, turning SW'erly at 8 - 15 mph above. Pressure gradients are +2.5 mb from Newport to Salem and +.4 mb from Salem to Redmond. Expect little change in the split upper level flow today. Some cloud buildups will form over the Cascades this afternoon. Wind flow will not change much as well with mostly a light SW to NW flow. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 93 degrees (average is 80). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent by 9:00 a.m. and reach a low of about 26 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: SW to W at 3 - 7 mph this morning then shifting to WSW to WNW at 5 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Transport winds: SW to NW at 5 - 10 mph through the day. Mixing height: Below 3000 ft until near noon, rising to 4000 ft by 2 p.m. and near 5000 ft around 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:01 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, Jul 5: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 35) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level flow remains split with the pattern slowly moving inland through the week. Upper low expands northward bringing a greater possibility of late afternoon to evening thunderstorms beginning Wednesday. Wind flow will be mostly light and variable overnight with NW flow at 5 - 10 mph through the day. Wind flow turns more SW to W later in the week. Afternoon temperatures gradually cool. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 6 11:45:35 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 6 Jul 2015 18:45:35 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 6, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from noon until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level split flow pattern remains over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level ridge to the north and a weak upper low to the south. Skies are mostly clear in the Willamette Valley this morning with marine low clouds retreating from coastal gaps. Pressure gradients are +3.7 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.2 mb from Salem to Redmond. Expect little change in the split upper level flow today. Some cloud buildups will form over the Cascades this afternoon. Wind flow will not change much with mostly a light SW to NW flow. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 93 degrees (average is 80). Relative humidity: Will reach a low of about 26 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable winds early this afternoon becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 10 mph during the later afternoon and evening. Transport winds: SW to NW at 5 - 10 mph through the day. Mixing height: Rising to 4000 ft by 2 p.m. and near 5000 ft around 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:01 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, Jul 5: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level flow remains split with the pattern slowly moving inland through the week. Upper low expands northward bringing a greater possibility of late afternoon to evening thunderstorms beginning Wednesday. Wind flow will be mostly light and variable overnight with NW flow at 5 - 10 mph through the day. Wind flow turns more SW to W later in the week. Afternoon temperatures gradually cool. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32768 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 7 08:50:47 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 7 Jul 2015 15:50:47 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 07, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge is weakening, with temperatures cooling closer to seasonal norms. The surface gradient is showing weak onshore flow. Marine clouds made it into the southern valley and Portland area, but not the central valley. Wind direction will be northwesterly today, but gradients will remain light, limiting potential for open burning. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the Cascades this afternoon. Mixing conditions will steadily improve today ahead of an evening sea breeze. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy skies today, with temperatures a little cooler than yesterday. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% this afternoon. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 12 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 6th: High 92?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Wednesday, an upper-level low will move into California, with flow over Oregon becoming northeasterly. Transport winds become light northerly as a result. On Thursday, the flow aloft remains northeasterly over Oregon, with onshore gradients increasing at the surface. Temperatures continue to moderate as a result of marine air intruding into Willamette Valley. Upper-level winds turn southwesterly on Friday. Increasing onshore flow may provide more favorable burning conditions. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 7 11:42:21 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 7 Jul 2015 18:42:21 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 07, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge is weakening, with temperatures cooling closer to seasonal norms. Late-morning surface gradient shows 2.7mb onshore from Newport to Salem, and 2.2mb onshore from Salem to Redmond. This is a favorable pattern to keep smoke plumes elevated. Wind direction will be northwesterly today, but wind speeds will be light. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the Cascades this afternoon. A sea breeze is expected to lower mixing heights this evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy skies this afternoon, with temperatures a little cooler than yesterday. Salem's high temperature today will be near 89?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 32% this afternoon. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 6th: High 92?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Wednesday, an upper-level low will move into California, with flow over Oregon becoming northeasterly. Transport winds become light northerly as a result. On Thursday, the flow aloft remains northeasterly over Oregon, with onshore gradients increasing at the surface. Temperatures continue to moderate as a result of marine air intruding into Willamette Valley. Upper-level winds turn southwesterly on Friday. Increasing onshore flow may provide more favorable burning conditions. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 8 08:43:01 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 8 Jul 2015 15:43:01 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED JUL 08, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge continues to weaken, with temperatures cooling closer to seasonal norms. The surface gradient is showing light onshore flow from Newport to Salem, but offshore from Redmond to Salem. Marine clouds made it into the southern valley and Portland area, but not the central valley. Wind direction will be northerly today, but gradients will remain light, limiting potential for open burning. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the Cascades this afternoon. Mixing conditions will slowly improve today ahead of an evening sea breeze. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy skies today, with temperatures a little cooler than yesterday. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 34% this afternoon. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NW 8-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 1:30 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 7th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Thursday, an upper-level trough will move offshore, turning flow aloft southeasterly in the afternoon hours. Onshore flow at the surface will be light. Temperatures continue to moderate as a result of marine air intruding into Willamette Valley. Upper-level winds turn southerly on Friday morning, with a shift to southwesterly by the afternoon hours as a trough forms over the Pacific Ocean. This aligns with building onshore flow at the surface, possibly providing favorable burning conditions. Saturday will see a strong upper-level trough move onshore Oregon from the Pacific, enhancing westerly flow. Scattered showers are possible Saturday afternoon, with isolated thunderstorm development over the Cascades. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 8 11:53:53 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 8 Jul 2015 18:53:53 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 08, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge continues to weaken, with temperatures cooling closer to seasonal norms. The surface gradient is showing light onshore flow from Newport to Salem, but neutral from Redmond to Salem. Water vapor satellite imagery shows dry air aloft over northern Oregon, with isolated showers and thunderstorms confined to southern Oregon. Wind direction will be northerly today, but gradients will remain light, limiting potential for open burning. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the Cascades this afternoon. Mixing conditions will slowly improve today ahead of an evening sea breeze. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny today, with temperatures a little cooler than yesterday. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 34% this afternoon. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 1:30 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 7th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Thursday, an upper-level trough will move offshore, turning flow aloft southeasterly in the afternoon hours. Onshore flow at the surface will be light. Temperatures continue to moderate as a result of marine air intruding into Willamette Valley. Upper-level winds turn southerly on Friday morning, with a shift to southwesterly by the afternoon hours as a trough forms over the Pacific Ocean. This aligns with building onshore flow at the surface, possibly providing favorable burning conditions. Saturday will see a strong upper-level trough move onshore Oregon from the Pacific, enhancing westerly flow. Scattered showers are possible Saturday afternoon, with isolated thunderstorm development over the Cascades. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 9 08:59:16 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 9 Jul 2015 15:59:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU JUL 09, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is recommended between 2pm and 5pm today. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough has exited to the southwest overnight, and another trough is approaching the Cascades from southern Oregon. Onshore flow at the surface will gradually increase today, but there will be directional wind shear aloft at the top of the mixing level with offshore flow. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into the early evening hours in the Willamette Valley. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Thunderstorms. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 39% this afternoon. Surface winds: W 5-10 mph this morning; W 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; NE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 12 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 8th: High 93?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Friday's weather pattern will be heavily dependent upon the proximity of an upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Ocean. The closer it approaches Oregon, the more southerly surface flow will be, with southwesterly transport winds aloft. Mixing conditions will steadily improve throughout the day, but onshore flow could also produce more showers with isolated thunderstorms over the Cascades. Unsettled weather over the weekend will bring cooler temperatures with onshore flow, as well as periodic showers across Willamette Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Cascades as well. Monday looks to continue this pattern, with heavier showers producing wetting rainfall across western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 9 11:42:08 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 9 Jul 2015 18:42:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU JUL 09, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Recommend agricultural burning be limited to the period from 2pm and 5pm today. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough has exited to the southwest overnight, and another trough is approaching the Cascades from southern Oregon. Onshore flow at the surface will gradually increase today, but winds at the top of the mixing level will blow offshore. Showers are beginning to form over the Cascades and are tracking west towards the Willamette Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the Cascades later this afternoon and may also move into the Willamette Valley. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Thunderstorms. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Currently near 60%, dropping to near 40% this afternoon. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this afternoon, becoming SW 10-15 after 5pm. Transport winds: Variable 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 8th: High 93?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Friday's weather pattern may be transitioning to more favorable conditions in the afternoon hours. An upper-level trough offshore is weakening and slowing down as it approaches. An exiting upper-level trough southeast of Oregon will provide southeasterly flow aloft for the morning hours. This may shift to southwesterly flow in the afternoon hours as the offshore feature arrives, aligning with onshore flow at the surface. Mixing conditions continue to improve throughout the day, with a reduced chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Unsettled weather over the weekend will bring cooler temperatures with onshore flow, as well as periodic showers across the Willamette Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Cascades as well. Monday looks to continue this pattern, with heavier showers producing wetting rainfall across western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 10 08:43:30 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 10 Jul 2015 15:43:30 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 10, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough has become stationary over northern Nevada, continuing to produce offshore flow aloft. A second upper-level trough offshore of Oregon has strengthened and slowed down, and is expected to arrive near the Oregon coast late this afternoon. Light onshore flow at the surface has spread into the Willamette Valley, and may turn winds southwesterly after noon. Mixing heights will be excellent all day, but the deep marine layer that surged into western Oregon overnight will need several hours of heating to prevent down-mixing. Another marine push will occur after sunset as a weak frontal system makes landfall along the Oregon coast. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Partly Cloudy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Drops to 60% by 12 p.m. and to below 50% by 5 p.m. this afternoon. Surface winds: S-SW 5-10 mph this morning; W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 10 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 9th: High 86?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Unsettled weather over the weekend will bring cooler temperatures with onshore flow, as well as periodic showers across Willamette Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Cascades as well. Monday looks to continue this pattern, with heavier showers producing wetting rainfall across western Oregon. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in the foothills of the Cascades and last through the afternoon. A period of drier, stable weather sets up for the middle of next week, producing partly cloudy to clear skies as northwestern onshore flow returns to western Oregon. This may allow drying from previous rainfall and present favorable burning conditions later in the week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 10 11:50:52 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 10 Jul 2015 18:50:52 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 10, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough has become stationary over northern Nevada, continuing to produce offshore flow aloft. A second upper-level trough offshore of Oregon has strengthened and slowed down, and is expected to arrive near the Oregon coast late this afternoon. Light onshore flow at the surface has spread into the Willamette Valley, and may turn winds southwesterly after noon. Mixing heights will be excellent all day, and the deep marine layer has begun to heat up and slowly dry as the clouds are beginning to scatter. Another marine push will occur after sunset as a weak frontal system makes landfall along the Oregon coast. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Partly Cloudy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Near 60% currently and dropping below 50% by 5 p.m. this afternoon. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 4000 feet currently and rising further to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 9th: High 86?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Unsettled weather over the weekend will bring cooler temperatures with onshore flow, as well as periodic showers across Willamette Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Cascades as well. Monday looks to continue this pattern, with heavier showers producing wetting rainfall across western Oregon. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in the foothills of the Cascades and last through the afternoon. A period of drier, stable weather sets up for the middle of next week, producing partly cloudy to clear skies as northwestern onshore flow returns to western Oregon. This may allow drying from previous rainfall and present favorable burning conditions later in the week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 13 08:43:51 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 13 Jul 2015 15:43:51 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 13, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough has moved over the Pacific Northwest this morning and will remain in place through the day. Skies are mostly cloudy. Morning sounding shows a moist unstable layer up through 5000 ft. Surface wind flow has been showing a light SW to W at 3 - 5 mph. Otherwise, low-level winds up to 2500 ft have been light and variable and S to SSW at 5 - 10 mph above. Pressure gradients are +.8 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.0 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level trough will remain in place today. Afternoon heating will likely provide some cloud buildups and potential scattered showers. Moisture amounts are expected to be very light. Wind flow will be mostly light and variable through the morning then increase from NW to N early this afternoon to 5 - 10 mph. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent around 10:00 a.m. and reach a low of about 38 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable this morning, becoming NW to N at 5 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Transport winds: Light and variable this morning below 3000 ft and S to SW at 5 - 10 mph above 3000 ft. Transport wind shifting to NW to N at 5 - 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Near or above 5000 ft throughout the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, Jul 12: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level trough remains over the state through the week but weakens. This will allow more clearing each day. Temperatures will generally remain seasonably warm. Wind will be light during the overnight to early morning hours, favoring a northerly flow. Afternoon winds increase but remain mostly northerly. Expect poorer mixing during the night and morning hours but continued good mixing during the afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 13 11:43:54 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 13 Jul 2015 18:43:54 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 13, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough is over the Pacific Northwest and will remain in place through the day. Skies are mostly cloudy with cloud buildups developing. Surface wind flow has been variable ranging from W to N at 3 - 5 mph. Pressure gradients are +1.7 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.4 mb from Salem to Redmond. Afternoon heating will increase cloud buildups and possibly bring scattered light showers. Moisture amounts are expected to be a few hundredths or less. Expect wind to increase from the NW to NNW early this afternoon to 5 - 10 mph. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Will drop to a low of about 40 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable, becoming NW to N at 5 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Transport winds: Light and variable, shifting to NW to N at 5 - 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Near or above 5000 ft throughout the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, Jul 12: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level trough remains over the state through the week but weakens. This will bring more clearing each day. Temperatures will generally remain seasonably warm. Wind will be light during the overnight to early morning hours, favoring a northerly flow. Afternoon winds increase but remain mostly northerly. Expect poorer mixing during the night and morning hours but continued good mixing during the afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 32256 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 14 08:51:23 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 14 Jul 2015 15:51:23 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 14, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weakened upper-level trough is passing through Oregon, bringing in cooler air from the Pacific Ocean aloft. A surface inversion over the Willamette Valley is quickly heating up and dissipating due to morning heating, which will allow the onshore flow to mix down by mid-day. Mixing conditions should improve rapidly, with convection forming pop-up clouds with little to no rainfall along a dry trough. Surface winds will become more northwesterly in the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a mild sea breeze. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies today. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Drops to near 60% by 10:30 a.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. this afternoon. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph this morning; NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 10th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern stabilizes for the middle of the week across the Pacific Northwest, as high pressure strengthens offshore Oregon. Northerly flow will prevail at the surface, with northwesterly onshore flow aloft mixing down in the afternoon hours. Mixing heights will improve steadily with daytime heating, but cooler marine air will moderate temperatures closer to seasonal averages. No rainfall is expected through Thursday evening as the atmosphere dries out. Friday will be a day of transition, as an upper-level trough from Canada dives south through Washington in the morning hours. Onshore flow at the surface will become more northwesterly, as mixing conditions increase rapidly. Little moisture is associated with the surface front, so no showers or thunderstorms are forecast at this time. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 14 11:49:34 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 14 Jul 2015 18:49:34 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 14, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weakened upper-level trough is passing through Oregon, bringing in cooler air from the Pacific Ocean aloft. Surface gradients are currently increasing, with +1.3mb onshore from Newport to Salem, and +1.2mb onshore from Salem to Redmond. Mixing conditions are improving rapidly, with convection forming pop-up clouds over the Cascades. Surface winds will become more northwesterly in the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a mild sea breeze. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies today. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Currently near 35% and to near 30% by 5 p.m. this afternoon. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3000 feet currently and rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 10th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern stabilizes for the middle of the week across the Pacific Northwest, as high pressure strengthens offshore Oregon. Northerly flow will prevail at the surface, with northwesterly onshore flow aloft mixing down in the afternoon hours. Mixing heights will improve steadily with daytime heating, but cooler marine air will moderate temperatures closer to seasonal averages. No rainfall is expected through Thursday evening as the atmosphere dries out. Friday will be a day of transition, as an upper-level trough from Canada dives south through Washington in the morning hours. Onshore flow at the surface will become more northwesterly, as mixing conditions increase rapidly. Little moisture is associated with the surface front, so no showers or thunderstorms are forecast at this time. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 15 08:39:51 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 15 Jul 2015 15:39:51 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED JUL 15, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Onshore flow aloft increases as an upper-level ridge builds out in the Pacific Ocean. A surface ridge will extend northeast toward the Oregon/Washington coasts, keeping winds north-by-northwesterly today. Mixing conditions will improve steadily throughout the day, and favorable conditions may extend into the evening hours as a weak upper-level trough forms offshore Oregon after sunset. Another mild sea breeze this afternoon will turn surface winds northwesterly with occasional gusts. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies today. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Drops to near 60% by 10 a.m. and to near 35% by 3 p.m. this afternoon. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 10-15 mph this morning; NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 14th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern stabilizes for one more day, as high pressure strengthens offshore Oregon. Northerly flow will prevail at the surface, with northwesterly onshore flow aloft mixing down late Thursday afternoon. Mixing heights will improve steadily with daytime heating, but cooler marine air will moderate temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Wind direction is likely to be a limiting factor for open burning. Friday will be a day of transition, as an upper-level trough from Canada dives south through Washington in the morning hours. Onshore flow at the surface will become more northwesterly, as mixing conditions increase rapidly. Little moisture is associated with the surface front, so no showers or thunderstorms are forecast at this time. The weekend will begin with isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades, while the Willamette Valley enjoys partly cloudy skies and continues to dry out. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 15 11:55:41 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 15 Jul 2015 18:55:41 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 15, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Onshore flow aloft increases as an upper-level ridge builds out in the Pacific Ocean. A surface ridge will extend northeast toward the Oregon/Washington coasts, keeping winds north-by-northwesterly today. Onshore flow has developed, with +1.2mb from Newport to Salem and +2.1mb from Salem to Redmond. Mixing conditions will improve steadily throughout the day, and favorable conditions may extend into the evening hours as a weak upper-level trough forms offshore Oregon after sunset. Another mild sea breeze this afternoon will turn surface winds northwesterly with occasional gusts. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies today. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Currently near 40% and dropping to near 30% by 3 p.m. this afternoon. Surface winds: N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently near 3000 feet and rising to 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 14th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern stabilizes for one more day, as high pressure strengthens offshore Oregon. Northerly flow will prevail at the surface, with northwesterly onshore flow aloft mixing down late Thursday afternoon. Mixing heights will improve steadily with daytime heating, but cooler marine air will moderate temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Wind direction is likely to be a limiting factor for open burning. Friday will be a day of transition, as an upper-level trough from Canada dives south through Washington in the morning hours. Onshore flow at the surface will become more northwesterly, as mixing conditions increase rapidly. Little moisture is associated with the surface front, so no showers or thunderstorms are forecast at this time. The weekend will begin with isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades, while the Willamette Valley enjoys partly cloudy skies and continues to dry out. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 16 08:41:07 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 16 Jul 2015 15:41:07 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU JUL 16, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Onshore flow aloft increases as a series of upper-level troughs move in from the Pacific Ocean. A surface ridge offshore Oregon will provide northerly flow throughout the Willamette Valley until it weakens mid-afternoon, allowing a mild sea breeze front to approach from the northwest. Mixing conditions are pronounced within a deep marine layer, and will be maintained through sunset. Favorable conditions may arise after noon, when remnant clouds move into the Cascades and the marine layer heats quickly, reducing humidity. Gradients are currently stacked unfavorably, with +1.0mb onshore from Newport to Salem and +3.3mb onshore from Salem to Redmond. Several hours of persistent heating will be required to overcome these conditions. This points towards a late day of burning opportunities in the Silverton Hills, if all of these wrinkles can be ironed out. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy skies becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Drops to near 60% by 11:30 a.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. this afternoon. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 12 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 15th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Mild weather continues into Friday, as the upper-level ridge over the Pacific rebuilds, forcing an upper-level low over Canada further east. A surface ridge will shift into the Oregon coast, producing northerly flow across the Willamette Valley while weakening onshore gradients. This points towards a lower probability of open burning opportunities, but limited prep burning may be possible. The atmosphere will begin a period of warming as it dries out over the weekend. There will be no rainfall for this time as temperatures creep slightly above seasonal averages during the afternoon hours. Late Sunday night, the upper-level ridge will weaken considerably as a trough from Alaska and remnants from Hurricane Dolores, near southern California, force it back out to sea. The surface ridge will weaken as a result, opening Oregon to westerly flow at all levels. Persistent onshore flow appears to provide multiple days of favorable burning conditions next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 16 11:38:01 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 16 Jul 2015 18:38:01 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU JUL 16, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Onshore flow aloft increases as a series of upper-level troughs move in from the Pacific Ocean. A surface ridge offshore Oregon will provide northerly flow throughout the Willamette Valley until it weakens mid-afternoon, allowing a mild sea breeze front to approach from the northwest. Mixing conditions are well-developed within a deep marine layer, and will be maintained through sunset. Clouds over western Oregon are beginning to scatter as they enter the Cascades, allowing more heating to take place. Gradients have improved slowly, with +1.6mb onshore from Newport to Salem and +3.5mb onshore from Salem to Redmond. Several hours of persistent heating will be required to overcome these conditions. This points towards a late day of burning opportunities in the Silverton Hills, if all of these wrinkles can be ironed out. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy skies becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Currently near 45% and lowering to near 35% by 5 p.m. this afternoon. Surface winds: N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently 5000 ft and sustained above 5000 ft until sunset. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 15th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Mild weather continues into Friday, as the upper-level ridge over the Pacific rebuilds, forcing an upper-level low over Canada further east. A surface ridge will shift into the Oregon coast, producing northerly flow across the Willamette Valley while weakening onshore gradients. This points towards a lower probability of open burning opportunities, but limited prep burning may be possible. The atmosphere will begin a period of warming as it dries out over the weekend. There will be no rainfall for this time as temperatures creep slightly above seasonal averages during the afternoon hours. Late Sunday night, the upper-level ridge will weaken considerably as a trough from Alaska and remnants from Hurricane Dolores, near southern California, force it back out to sea. The surface ridge will weaken as a result, opening Oregon to westerly flow at all levels. Persistent onshore flow appears to provide multiple days of favorable burning conditions next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 17 08:38:28 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 17 Jul 2015 15:38:28 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 17, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to gusty winds and low humidity, may develop late this afternoon. *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is sliding south across the Canadian border, which will shift northerly winds to weak offshore flow later this afternoon. The surface high offshore Oregon will shift northwest out to sea, helping produce weak offshore flow. Mixing conditions will become well developed in the afternoon hours today, as partly cloudy skies allow rapid heating throughout the morning. Temperatures near seasonal averages will result, but the drying atmosphere and afternoon breezes may produce State Fire Marshal conditions later today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies today, and breezy in the afternoon hours. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Drops to near 50% by 11 a.m. and below 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-15 mph this morning; N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 10-15 mph this morning; NE 20-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 12 p.m. and rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:54 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 16th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 125) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for the Willamette Valley and western Cascades from 11 p.m. Friday evening through 11 p.m. Saturday. The weekend's weather will feature soaring daytime temperatures, an atmosphere that continues to dry out under offshore flow, and mostly sunny skies with clear nights. Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday morning, an upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska and the remnants of Hurricane Dolores, which will be approaching southern California, will weaken the upper-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. As it retreats further west, the surface ridge over western Oregon will dissipate and a weak surface frontal system will form out in the Pacific. This will open the gates as onshore flow returns to Oregon, with westerly flow at all levels by Monday afternoon. The dry atmosphere will see clouds move onshore, but limited moisture and no rainfall is expected until late next week. Beginning Monday, open burning opportunities may increase for multiple days based upon these conditions. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 17 11:46:37 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 17 Jul 2015 18:46:37 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 17, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to gusty winds and low humidity, may develop late this afternoon. *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A combination of breezy, northeastern winds and plummeting humidity make open burning opportunities unlikely today. An upper-level trough is sliding south across the Canadian border, which will shift northerly winds to weak offshore flow later this afternoon. The surface high offshore Oregon will shift northwest out to sea, helping produce weak offshore flow. Gradients are currently flat and predicted to become offshore later this afternoon. Mixing conditions will become well developed in the afternoon hours today, as partly cloudy skies allow rapid heating throughout the morning. Temperatures near seasonal averages will result, but the drying atmosphere and afternoon breezes may produce State Fire Marshal conditions later today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies today, and breezy in the afternoon hours. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Currently near 40% and lowering near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 20-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently near 3000 feet and rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:54 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 16th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 125) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weekend's weather will feature soaring daytime temperatures, an atmosphere that continues to dry out under offshore flow, and mostly sunny skies with clear nights. Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday morning, an upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska and the remnants of Hurricane Dolores, which will be approaching southern California, will weaken the upper-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. As it retreats further west, the surface ridge over western Oregon will dissipate and a weak surface frontal system will form out in the Pacific. This will open the gates as onshore flow returns to Oregon, with westerly flow at all levels by Monday afternoon. The dry atmosphere will see clouds move onshore, but limited moisture and no rainfall is expected until late next week. Beginning Monday, open burning opportunities may increase for multiple days based upon these conditions. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 20 09:00:11 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2015 16:00:11 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs.docx Message-ID: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 20 11:46:52 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2015 18:46:52 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 20, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Increasing onshore flow is bringing cooler marine air into the Willamette Valley today, with temperatures running 5-10 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. At the surface, there was some minor pressure gradient-stacking late this morning, with 1.6mb onshore from Newport to Salem and 2.6mb onshore from Salem to Redmond. An 11 a.m. pibal showed SW surface winds veering to the west near the mixing height, so the limiting factors for beginning field-burning this afternoon will be the mixing height and pressure gradients. Sunny skies should warm the valley quickly, lifting mixing heights above 3000 feet by noon and creating more favorable gradients early in the afternoon. Another pibal is scheduled for noon. A dry upper-level disturbance will move across the region today, increasing the onshore flow and continuing the cooling trend. It will also help to maintain general lifting of the atmosphere and limit down-mixing of smoke. WSW transport winds should slowly veer to the NW as the day progresses. An impressive sea breeze is expected this evening, bringing another surge of marine air into the Willamette valley overnight. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny but cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5 mph; WNW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: WSW 5-10 mph; becoming WNW 10 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet at noon; rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:52 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 19th: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A mostly dry upper-level trough will remain over the region Tuesday through Friday, maintaining onshore flow and near to below average temperatures. Expect varying degrees of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine. No significant rainfall is expected, but areas of morning drizzle or very light showers can't be ruled out. Transport winds will be generally northwesterly, with possible afternoon burning opportunities each day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 21 08:50:06 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 21 Jul 2015 15:50:06 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 21, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is approaching from northwest of Vancouver Island, and will be providing southwesterly onshore flow aloft all day. This will cause a surface ridge along the Oregon coast to weaken and move further south, with onshore flow becoming northwesterly by mid-day. Mostly Cloudy skies over the Willamette Valley will break up and begin scattering over the southern valley, becoming Partly Cloudy after noon. This delayed heating will limit mixing conditions and favorable gradients from developing until mid-afternoon. Open burning opportunities may develop today, but all indications point towards this event being a later afternoon window for field burning. A moderate sea breeze will move in to the Silverton Hills before sunset, bringing cool, marine air Tuesday evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy skies, becoming Partly Cloudy and breezy this evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Drops to near 60% by 11 a.m. and near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3500 feet by 11 a.m. and rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 20th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A deep marine layer will be in place over the Willamette Valley on Wednesday, bringing more clouds in from the Pacific Ocean. This will delay heating again, while trapped moisture keeps the humidity high into the afternoon hours. An upper-level trough will sweep across Washington during the day, producing onshore flow aloft. Light onshore flow will occur at the surface as well, but the overcast conditions will prevent a true sea breeze from forming Wednesday afternoon. Thursday marks a brief period of stable weather, as an upper-level ridge moves in from the Pacific Ocean. This will help to dry out the atmosphere, but will limit mixing conditions while onshore flow weakens. A surface ridge will begin to form near the Oregon coast that will also stack gradients unfavorably for open burning operations. Friday will see conditions become more favorable again, as a strong upper-level trough cruises down the Canadian coastline, weakening the upper-level ridge in the Pacific Ocean. Onshore flow aloft increases, as straight westerly winds develop at all levels. The surface ridge near the Oregon coast will be pushed south, increasing onshore flow with west-by-northwesterly winds. Mixing conditions will improve, as well as gradients, to provide another possible open burning opportunity ahead of the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 21 11:44:29 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 21 Jul 2015 18:44:29 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 21, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is approaching from northwest of Vancouver Island, and will be providing southwesterly onshore flow aloft all day. This will cause a surface ridge along the Oregon coast to weaken and move further south, with onshore flow becoming northwesterly by mid-day. Morning clouds have broken up, allowing more heating to occur and mixing conditions to begin improving. Gradients are currently +0.6mb onshore from Newport to Salem, and +4.6mb from Salem to Redmond. Open burning opportunities may develop today, but all indications point towards this event being a later afternoon window for field burning. A moderate sea breeze will move in to the Silverton Hills after sunset, bringing cool, marine air Tuesday evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy and breezy this evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Currently near 55% and lowering to near 35% by 4 p.m. Surface winds: NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently near 3500 feet and rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 20th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A deep marine layer will be in place over the Willamette Valley on Wednesday, bringing more clouds in from the Pacific Ocean. A mid-level trough will sweep across northern Oregon Wednesday morning, helping to break up morning clouds and allow heating to increase, improving mixing conditions under northwesterly onshore flow. Moisture carried over the Cascades will help form afternoon pop-up clouds along the ridgeline, with isolated showers further east Wednesday afternoon. These conditions may provide a window for open burning opportunities earlier in the day if gradients improve quickly. Thursday marks a brief period of stable weather, as an upper-level ridge moves in from the Pacific Ocean. This will help to dry out the atmosphere, but will limit mixing conditions while onshore flow weakens. A surface ridge will begin to form near the Oregon coast that will also stack gradients unfavorably for open burning operations. Friday will see conditions become more favorable again, as a strong upper-level trough cruises down the Canadian coastline, weakening the upper-level ridge in the Pacific Ocean. Onshore flow aloft increases, as straight westerly winds develop at all levels. The surface ridge near the Oregon coast will be pushed south, increasing onshore flow with west-by-northwesterly winds. Mixing conditions will improve, as well as gradients, to provide another possible open burning opportunity ahead of the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 22 08:44:46 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 22 Jul 2015 15:44:46 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED JUL 22, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed between 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is over Oregon, with a second upper-level trough near Vancouver Island that will pass across the Pacific Northwest mid-afternoon. The southwesterly onshore flow aloft is weakening a surface ridge offshore Oregon, which will slide south this afternoon, turning surface flow more northwesterly. Partly Cloudy skies will allow the southern Willamette Valley to heat rapidly, improving mixing conditions early in the afternoon hours. Gradients are currently stacked unfavorably, with +0.7mb onshore from Newport to Salem, and +2.7mb from Salem to Redmond, but this is significantly improved from 24 hours ago and expected to line up favorably by mid-afternoon. Open burning opportunities may develop at this time, and will extend into the early evening hours if wind direction and gradients remain in sync with each other. A mild sea breeze is expected to push into the Willamette Valley just before sunset. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy early becoming Partly Cloudy skies this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Drops below 60% by 10 a.m. and near 45% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NW 8-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 4000 feet by 10 a.m. and rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:50 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 21st: High 79?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough from Wednesday will linger over eastern Oregon Thursday morning, with a weak upper-level ridge grazing the Oregon coast as it passes south into California. Westerly onshore flow aloft will develop, while surface flow becomes more northerly as a low forms in Washington on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. The gradients will not be favorably stacked either, so open burning opportunities are not likely to materialize Thursday afternoon. Friday proves to be a horse of a different color, as onshore flow develops early at both the surface and aloft, with transport winds becoming southwesterly in the afternoon hours. Clouds with no rainfall will move across Oregon from the Pacific, limiting daytime heating initially. Mixing will develop slowly, but gradients should stack favorably by mid-day and open burning opportunities may develop for the afternoon and early evening hours. A strong upper-level trough will curve down from the Canadian coast and across the U.S./Canadian border through the weekend. It will keep the onshore flow westerly, and moisture it gathers could produce some pop-up showers over the Oregon Cascades with afternoon heating, but rainfall on Saturday and Sunday is expected to be less than 0.10 inches of rain for western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 37376 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 22 11:43:08 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 22 Jul 2015 18:43:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 22, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed between 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is over Oregon, with a second upper-level trough near Vancouver Island that will pass across the Pacific Northwest mid-afternoon. The southwesterly onshore flow aloft is weakening a surface ridge offshore Oregon, which will slide south this afternoon, turning surface flow more northwesterly. Partly Cloudy skies will allow the southern Willamette Valley to heat rapidly, improving mixing conditions early in the afternoon hours. Gradients are currently stacked unfavorably, with +0.7mb onshore from Newport to Salem, and +3.7mb from Salem to Redmond, but this is significantly improved from 24 hours ago and expected to line up favorably by mid-afternoon. Open burning opportunities may develop at this time, and will extend into the early evening hours if wind direction and gradients remain in sync with each other. A mild sea breeze is expected to push into the Willamette Valley just before sunset. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy early becoming Partly Cloudy skies this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently near 50% by 10 a.m. and near 40% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 8-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently 4500 feet and rising to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:50 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 21st: High 79?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough from Wednesday will linger over eastern Oregon Thursday morning, with a weak upper-level ridge grazing the Oregon coast as it passes south into California. Westerly onshore flow aloft will develop, while surface flow becomes more northerly as a low forms in Washington on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. The gradients will not be favorably stacked either, so open burning opportunities are not likely to materialize Thursday afternoon. Friday proves to be a horse of a different color, as onshore flow develops early at both the surface and aloft, with transport winds becoming southwesterly in the afternoon hours. Clouds with no rainfall will move across Oregon from the Pacific, limiting daytime heating initially. Mixing will develop slowly, but gradients should stack favorably by mid-day and open burning opportunities may develop for the afternoon and early evening hours. A strong upper-level trough will curve down from the Canadian coast and across the U.S./Canadian border through the weekend. It will keep the onshore flow westerly, and moisture it gathers could produce some pop-up showers over the Oregon Cascades with afternoon heating, but rainfall on Saturday and Sunday is expected to be less than 0.10 inches of rain for western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 37376 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 23 08:44:59 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2015 15:44:59 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU JUL 23, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed between 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is offshore Oregon, and will be weakened & pushed out by an approaching trough over the Canadian coastline. Westerly onshore flow aloft will prevail throughout the day as a result. At the surface, a ridge has weakened and moved south towards the Oregon/California border. Light gradients persisted overnight, with reduced cloud coverage across the Willamette Valley, and cooler air aloft has kept mixing conditions optimal. Daytime heating should be greater today, allowing onshore gradients to improve rapidly and may provide a larger window for open burning opportunities this afternoon. Departing clouds should allow warmer temperatures, generating a mild afternoon sea breeze that will move inland before sunset as the Canadian trough crosses the U.S. border. This indicates that open burning could extend into the early evening hours today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy becoming Partly Cloudy skies this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Drops near 45% by 11 a.m. and near 30% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 5000 feet by 11 a.m. and 5000 feet or greater through the remainder of the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 22nd: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough slides east-southeast into Washington on Friday, producing westerly onshore flow. A surface trough will form east of the Cascades and cause light onshore gradients with westerly winds to set up early, signaling another day of potential open burning opportunities. Mixing conditions will be excellent, and an evening sea breeze may provide an extended day of activity in the Silverton Hills. A strong marine push after sunset will bring cool air and coastal clouds inland to provide more seasonal temperatures through the weekend. No rainfall is expected to occur. An upper-level ridge will rebuild itself Sunday evening and throughout Monday, turning onshore flow aloft more northwesterly. A surface ridge offshore Oregon will reform as well, turning winds more northwesterly as gradients increase steadily throughout the day. A lack of significant clouds should allow enough heating to generate an afternoon sea breeze, suggesting an auspicious beginning to the upcoming week for open burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 23 11:42:25 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2015 18:42:25 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU JUL 23, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed between 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is offshore Oregon, and will be weakened & pushed out by an approaching trough over the Canadian coastline. Westerly onshore flow aloft will prevail throughout the day as a result. At the surface, a ridge has weakened and moved south towards the Oregon/California border. Cloud cover has boken up and is scattering over the Willamette Valley, allowing temperatures to increase quickly. Gradients are steadily improving, with Newport to Salem onshore +1.2mb and Salem to Redmond onshore +2.5mb. Partly cloudy conditions should allow warmer temperatures, generating a mild afternoon sea breeze that will move inland before sunset as the Canadian trough crosses the U.S. border. This indicates that open burning could extend into the early evening hours today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently near 45% by and dropping near 30% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 5000 feet or greater through the remainder of the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 22nd: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough slides east-southeast into Washington on Friday, producing westerly onshore flow. A surface trough will form east of the Cascades and cause light onshore gradients with westerly winds to set up early, signaling another day of potential open burning opportunities. Mixing conditions will be excellent, and an evening sea breeze may provide an extended day of activity in the Silverton Hills. A strong marine push after sunset will bring cool air and coastal clouds inland to provide more seasonal temperatures through the weekend. No rainfall is expected to occur. An upper-level ridge will rebuild itself Sunday evening and throughout Monday, turning onshore flow aloft more northwesterly. A surface ridge offshore Oregon will reform as well, turning winds more northwesterly as gradients increase steadily throughout the day. A lack of significant clouds should allow enough heating to generate an afternoon sea breeze, suggesting an auspicious beginning to the upcoming week for open burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 24 08:39:36 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2015 15:39:36 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 24, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed between 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is passing over the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a strengthening upper-level low near Vancouver Island. This is forming a weak frontal system at the surface near the Canadian coastline, which will produce onshore southwesterly flow ahead of it today. Partly Cloudy skies will allow great heating, but improvement of onshore gradients and mixing heights will be slow at first until the upper-level ridge has passed overhead in the early afternoon hours. This points to a late day of potential open burning opportunities across the Silverton Hills, as light westerly winds, onshore gradients, and optimal mixing & ventilation of smoke all come together mid-afternoon. The surface frontal system will be offshore Washington by sunset, with a dry Cold Front passing over the Willamette Valley close to midnight tonight. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy skies this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Drops near 50% by 11 a.m. and near 30% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; SW-W 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and 6000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:48 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 23rd: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Onshore flow with cooler temperatures arrive for the weekend. Moisture moving in from the Pacific Ocean will provide Mostly Cloudy to Overcast conditions, with pop-up showers and isolated thunderstorms possible in the Cascades. Rainfall will be very light, amounting to less than 0.10 of an inch for the entire weekend in areas affected. An unsettled weather pattern will reach its apex on Monday, as the upper-level low that generated cool & cloudy weather for the weekend finally passes across the Washington/Oregon border. Onshore flow will build throughout the day, with northwesterly winds at all levels. Ample moisture will be pulled in from the Pacific Ocean, increasing the coverage of rainfall with isolated thunderstorms across the Oregon Cascades Monday afternoon. An upper-level ridge will begin to re-establish itself Monday evening, calming the atmosphere for the remainder of the week and improving the favorability for open field burning beyond Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 24 11:38:55 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2015 18:38:55 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 24, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed between 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is passing over the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a strengthening upper-level low near Vancouver Island. This is forming a weak frontal system at the surface near the Canadian coastline, which will produce onshore southwesterly flow ahead of it today. Partly Cloudy skies will allow great heating, and gradients are onshore with +1.6mb from Newport to Salem and +2.5mb from Salem to Redmond. This points to a late day of potential open burning opportunities across the Silverton Hills, as light westerly winds, onshore gradients, and optimal mixing & ventilation of smoke all come together mid-afternoon. The surface frontal system will be offshore Washington by sunset, with a dry Cold Front passing over the Willamette Valley close to midnight tonight. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy skies this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently near 45% and dropping near 30% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: SW-W 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently near 3000 feet and rising to 6000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:48 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 23rd: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Onshore flow with cooler temperatures arrive for the weekend. Moisture moving in from the Pacific Ocean will provide Mostly Cloudy to Overcast conditions, with pop-up showers and isolated thunderstorms possible in the Cascades. Rainfall will be very light, amounting to less than 0.10 of an inch for the entire weekend in areas affected. An unsettled weather pattern will reach its apex on Monday, as the upper-level low that generated cool & cloudy weather for the weekend finally passes across the Washington/Oregon border. Onshore flow will build throughout the day, with northwesterly winds at all levels. Ample moisture will be pulled in from the Pacific Ocean, increasing the coverage of rainfall with isolated thunderstorms across the Oregon Cascades Monday afternoon. An upper-level ridge will begin to re-establish itself Monday evening, calming the atmosphere for the remainder of the week and improving the favorability for open field burning beyond Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 27 08:45:13 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 27 Jul 2015 15:45:13 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 27, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Vigorous showers dropped up to one-third of an inch of rain across the extreme northern Willamette Valley on Sunday. Rainfall amounts rapidly tapered off to the south, with the Salem Airport recording just a trace. It is possible that some fields may need drying time today. An upper-level trough is pushing east of the region this morning with a drier and more stable NW flow aloft over western Oregon. In the wake of the trough, cool air aloft and strong surface heating will provide excellent mixing today. Onshore pressure gradients are stacked unfavorably this morning but may get balanced by afternoon heating. However, onshore NW flow is veering to more to northerly, which will limit burning opportunities. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 2-5 mph this morning; N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph late this morning; N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 4000 feet by 11:00 a.m. to 6000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:44 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 26th: High 74?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge is predicted to develop over the Pacific Northwest this week. Temperatures will rapidly warm into the upper 80s by Tuesday and the mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Friday. Burning opportunities are unlikely, with transport winds turning north to NE and mixing getting suppressed by warming aloft. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 27 11:46:02 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 27 Jul 2015 18:46:02 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 27, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough that brought cooler weather and spotty showers to NW Oregon over the weekend has pushed east of the state. Some fields may need drying time today, especially north. In the wake of the trough, cool air aloft, residual moisture, and strong surface heating is providing excellent mixing along with some convective clouds. No showers are expected today, due to a drier and more stable NW flow aloft over western Oregon. Onshore pressure gradients are still stacked unfavorably, at midday, but may get balanced by afternoon heating. NW-N transport wind directions will also be a limiting factor for burning today and will be monitored closely. Pibals are scheduled to begin at 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 6000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:44 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 26th: High 74?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge is predicted to develop and bring near-record heat to NW Oregon later this week. Willamette Valley highs should warm into the upper 80s on Tuesday and the mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Friday. Triple-digit heat is possible, especially Thursday. Burning opportunities are unlikely, with mostly N-NE transport winds, suppressed mixing, and the possibility of State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions in the afternoons. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 28 08:32:38 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 28 Jul 2015 15:32:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:30 AM PDT TUE JUL 28, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions may be reached this afternoon due to low humidity and wind. *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is building over the region with a dry NW flow aloft clearing skies statewide. At the surface, a thermal trough is developing over northern California and has turned surface and transport winds to the N-NE across western Oregon. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer today, with highs climbing into the upper 80s. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and much warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: N 10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 15 mph this morning; NNE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 4000 feet by 2 p.m. to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:43 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 27th: High 79?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge is predicted to bring near-record heat to western Oregon Wednesday through Friday. Willamette Valley highs will range from 95-100?F, with Thursday likely being the warmest day. In stark contrast to last week, the burning outlook for this week is poor. Hot temperatures and low humidity levels will likely put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions in the afternoons. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 28 11:28:15 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 28 Jul 2015 18:28:15 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT TUE JUL 28, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: *** State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions may be reached this afternoon due to low humidity and wind. *** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge is producing a drying and warming NW flow aloft and sunny skies statewide. At the surface, strengthening offshore flow should help temperatures climb to above average this afternoon. A 2 p.m. pibal is scheduled to verify the expected NE transport winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and much warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 2 p.m. and to near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNE increasing to 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 4000 feet by 2 p.m. to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:43 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 27th: High 79?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge is expected to produce near-record heat across western Oregon Wednesday through Friday. Willamette Valley highs will range from 95-100?F, with Thursday likely being the warmest day. Hot temperatures and low humidity levels will likely put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions in the afternoons. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 29 08:53:26 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2015 15:53:26 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Forecast_Joint.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED JUL 29, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to winds, high temperatures, and low humidity are expected to be met this afternoon*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is building over the Pacific Northwest. Warming aloft will suppress mixing this afternoon. At the surface, a thermal trough is building northward along the Oregon coast. Increasing offshore gradients across western Oregon will make for very dry and breezy conditions this afternoon. Clear skies and very warm air aloft will allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the 90s this afternoon with highs approaching 100?F. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, breezy, and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 99?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 20% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: NE 5-10 mph this morning; N-NE 10-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 15 mph this morning; N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and rising to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:42 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 28th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge is expected to produce near-record heat across western Oregon through Friday. Willamette Valley highs will be near 100?F. Hot temperatures and low humidity levels will likely put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions in the afternoons. The upper-level ridge will begin to weaken and shift east of the region over the weekend with increasing SW flow aloft over Oregon. A switch to onshore surface winds will initiate slow a cooling trend, with high temperatures dropping back into the mid-90s. The air mass will remain quite dry, but there is a risk of late-day thunderstorms...mainly over the Cascades. SW flow aloft is predicted to strengthen next week. Stronger onshore flow will provide additional cooling and possibly some burning opportunities, although the chance for showers will also increase. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins/Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologists -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Forecast_Joint.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Forecast_Joint.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 29 11:39:01 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2015 18:39:01 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 29, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to winds, high temperatures, and low humidity will be observed this afternoon*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is building offshore the Pacific Northwest. Warming aloft will suppress mixing this afternoon. At the surface, a thermal trough is building northward along the Oregon Cascades. Increasing offshore flow across western Oregon will make for very dry and breezy conditions this afternoon. Gradients are currently unfavorable, with Newport to Salem onshore at +0.2mb and Salem to Redmond offshore at -2.9mb, producing northeasterly winds. Clear skies and very warm air aloft will allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the 90's this afternoon with highs approaching triple digits. TODAY'S FORECAST: Hot, dry and windy under Clear Skies. Salem's high temperature today will be near 99?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 20% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 15-25 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 15-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and rising to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:42 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 28th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 125) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level ridge is expected to produce near-record heat across western Oregon through Friday. Willamette Valley highs will be near 100?F both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Hot temperatures with low humidity levels will likely put the valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions for the next two days. The upper-level ridge will begin to weaken and shift east of the region late in the weekend, with a turn to southwesterly onshore flow aloft over Oregon. Surface winds will shift to onshore gradients as well, helping to break the heatwave and drop Sunday afternoon temperatures into the mid-90's. The atmosphere will remain fairly dry, but isolated thunderstorms over the Cascades are possible. These storms would produce little in the way of rainfall. Onshore flow is expected to strengthen next week, providing additional cooling and may produce some open burning opportunities. The return of moisture may also bring pop-up showers near higher elevations in the afternoon hours. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 30 08:52:06 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2015 15:52:06 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU JUL 30, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to high temperatures and low humidity, will be observed this afternoon*** ***A Red Flag Warning is in effect now through 11 p.m. Friday evening for the Willamette Valley and western Cascades*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen and continue warming air aloft. Mixing heights will be suppressed by warm air aloft. At the surface, a thermal trough west of the Cascades will strengthen due to intense heating under clear skies, with offshore gradients increasing in the afternoon hours. State Fire Marshal conditions are likely to develop this afternoon due to soaring temperatures and low humidity, creating an unfavorable scenario for open burning opportunities. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies with very hot temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 105?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 20% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this morning, becoming N-NE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this morning, becoming N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and rising to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:41 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 29th: High 99?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The current weather pattern will continue into the weekend, as the upper-level ridge slowly moves across our region. The thermal trough in western Oregon will be a dominant feature, keeping daytime temperatures above seasonal averages with marginal humidity recovery at night. State Fire Marshal conditions will be a distinct possibility for the next several days as a result. This indicates few, if any, opportunities for open burning until early next week. The upper-level ridge will weaken enough to allow cooler, onshore flow to return to Oregon Sunday afternoon. A weak upper-level trough off the coast of California may bring some isolated thunderstorms along the Cascades. Monday will mark the beginning of a transition period for northwestern Oregon. The upper-level ridge will shift east of Oregon, allowing southwesterly onshore flow to further cool the air aloft. The thermal trough will shift east of the Cascades, allowing afternoon gradients to shift to light onshore flow ahead of a mild sea breeze. Better mixing conditions will result as the atmosphere cools, improving the possibilities for open burning operations. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms along the Cascades Monday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 30 11:38:51 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2015 18:38:51 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU JUL 30, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to high temperatures and low humidity, will be observed this afternoon*** ***A Red Flag Warning is in effect now through 11 p.m. Friday evening for the Willamette Valley and western Cascades*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strengthening upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will continue warming the air aloft and suppressing mixing heights. At the surface, a thermal trough west of the Cascades will strengthen due to intense heating under clear skies, shifting just east of Interstate-5 this afternoon. Newport to Salem is currently light onshore at +0.6mb, but Salem to Redmond is much stronger offshore at -3.4mb, creating north to northeasterly winds in the Willamette Valley. State Fire Marshal conditions are likely to develop this afternoon due to soaring temperatures and low humidity, creating an unfavorable scenario for open burning opportunities. Today will likely be the hottest day for many locations within the past several years, and is poised to shatter local records. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies with very hot temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 105?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 20% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and rising to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:41 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 29th: High 99?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The current weather pattern will continue into the weekend, as the upper-level ridge slowly moves across our region. The thermal trough in western Oregon will be a dominant feature, keeping daytime temperatures above seasonal averages with marginal humidity recovery at night. State Fire Marshal conditions will be a distinct possibility for the next several days as a result. This indicates few, if any, opportunities for open burning until early next week. The upper-level ridge will weaken enough to allow cooler, onshore flow to return to Oregon Sunday afternoon. A weak upper-level trough off the coast of California may bring some isolated thunderstorms along the Cascades. Monday will mark the beginning of a transition period for northwestern Oregon. The upper-level ridge will shift east of Oregon, allowing southwesterly onshore flow to further cool the air aloft. The thermal trough will shift east of the Cascades, allowing afternoon gradients to shift to light onshore flow ahead of a mild sea breeze. Better mixing conditions will result as the atmosphere cools, improving the possibilities for open burning operations. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms along the Cascades Monday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 31 08:49:45 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 31 Jul 2015 15:49:45 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 31, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to high temperatures and low humidity, will be observed this afternoon*** ***A Red Flag Warning is in effect now through 11 p.m. tonight for the Willamette Valley and western Cascades*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will begin to weaken and shift east across the Cascades later today. At the surface, the thermal trough over western Oregon will strengthen with intense heating and move into the foothills of the Cascades this afternoon. These are signs that our heatwave is coming to an end, but northerly winds and restricted mixing heights will persist into Friday evening. State Fire Marshal conditions are expected again due to above-average temperatures and low humidity. Clear skies early today will become partly cloudy in the afternoon, as elevated smoke from wildfires in southern Oregon and some wispy high clouds drift north across our area. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies becoming Mostly Sunny with very hot temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 103?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 15% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this morning, becoming N-NE 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 10-15 mph this morning, becoming N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and rising to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:40 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 30th: High 105?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weekend will be a transition period that starts off slowly on Saturday, with more changes apparent by Sunday. The upper-level ridge will continue to move east and exit Oregon Saturday evening, ushering in southwesterly flow aloft with more cloud coverage. At the surface, a mild sea breeze Sunday afternoon will return temperatures closer to seasonal averages throughout the Willamette Valley. An upper-level trough off the coast of California will continue to pump moisture into southern Oregon, creating isolated thunderstorms over the Cascades in the afternoon hours. No rainfall is expected for the Silverton Hills. On Monday, an upper-level trough will remain off the coast of California while a second trough approaches from the Canadian coastline, increasing the southwesterly flow and cooling air aloft. A surface high near the Oregon coast will increase onshore gradients ahead of an afternoon sea breeze, with mixing heights rising rapidly throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorms with scattered showers are expected along the Cascades and across eastern Oregon. This suggests possibilities for open field burning, but it may start early and end early ahead of the sea breeze. The remainder of the week sees the Silverton Hills under continued onshore flow, as the upper-level trough slows and strengthens as it nears the Washington coast. These conditions could potentially provide several days of favorable open burning conditions, tapering off towards the weekend as daily sea breezes progressively deepen the marine layer over western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 37376 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 31 11:37:32 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 31 Jul 2015 18:37:32 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 31, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, due to high temperatures and low humidity, will be observed this afternoon*** ***A Red Flag Warning is in effect now through 11 p.m. Saturday evening for the Willamette Valley and western Cascades*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will begin to weaken and shift east across the Cascades later today. At the surface, the thermal trough over western Oregon will strengthen with intense heating and move into the foothills of the Cascades this afternoon. These are signs that our heatwave is coming to an end, but northerly winds and restricted mixing heights will persist into Friday evening. State Fire Marshal conditions are expected again due to above-average temperatures and low humidity. Clear skies early today will become partly cloudy in the afternoon, as elevated smoke from wildfires in southern Oregon and some wispy high clouds drift north across our area. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies becoming Mostly Sunny with very hot temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 103?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 15% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and rising to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:40 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 30th: High 105?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weekend will be a transition period that starts off slowly on Saturday, with more changes apparent by Sunday. The upper-level ridge will continue to move east and exit Oregon Saturday evening, ushering in southwesterly flow aloft with more cloud coverage. At the surface, a mild sea breeze Sunday afternoon will return temperatures closer to seasonal averages throughout the Willamette Valley. An upper-level trough off the coast of California will continue to pump moisture into southern Oregon, creating isolated thunderstorms over the Cascades in the afternoon hours. No rainfall is expected for the Silverton Hills. On Monday, an upper-level trough will remain off the coast of California while a second trough approaches from the Canadian coastline, increasing the southwesterly flow and cooling air aloft. A surface high near the Oregon coast will increase onshore gradients ahead of an afternoon sea breeze, with mixing heights rising rapidly throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorms with scattered showers are expected along the Cascades and across eastern Oregon. This suggests possibilities for open field burning, but it may start early and end early ahead of the sea breeze. The remainder of the week sees the Silverton Hills under continued onshore flow, as the upper-level trough slows and strengthens as it nears the Washington coast. These conditions could potentially provide several days of favorable open burning conditions, tapering off towards the weekend as daily sea breezes progressively deepen the marine layer over western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 37376 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: