[willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom

Tue Jul 7 08:50:47 PDT 2015

SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE

8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 07, 2015

BURN ADVISORY:

Agricultural burning is not recommended.

Prep burning is not allowed.

WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The upper-level ridge is weakening, with temperatures cooling closer to seasonal norms. The surface gradient is showing weak onshore flow. Marine clouds made it into the southern valley and Portland area, but not the central valley. Wind direction will be northwesterly today, but gradients will remain light, limiting potential for open burning. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the Cascades this afternoon. Mixing conditions will steadily improve today ahead of an evening sea breeze.

TODAY'S FORECAST:

Partly cloudy skies today, with temperatures a little cooler than yesterday.

Salem's high temperature today will be near 87°F (average is 80°F).

Relative humidity:  Dropping to near 35% this afternoon.

Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon.

Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon.

Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 12 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 3 p.m.

Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m.

(Salem Airport data for Monday, July 6th: High 92°F; Rainfall: .00")

(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50)

EXTENDED DISCUSSION:

On Wednesday, an upper-level low will move into California, with flow over Oregon becoming northeasterly. Transport winds become light northerly as a result. On Thursday, the flow aloft remains northeasterly over Oregon, with onshore gradients increasing at the surface. Temperatures continue to moderate as a result of marine air intruding into Willamette Valley. Upper-level winds turn southwesterly on Friday. Increasing onshore flow may provide more favorable burning conditions.

The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

Notes:

     1.  Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the

         potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the

         surface.  As a practical matter it is the approximate height to

         which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels,

         and winds less than about 15 mph.

     2.  Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height,

         weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.

     3.  Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times

         the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.

     4.  Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction.

         At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local

         terrain conditions.

This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department

of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF).  For

information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.

To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to:

http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst

Pete Parsons

ODF Meteorologist
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