From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 1 08:24:47 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2015 15:24:47 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:25 AM PDT MON SEP 1, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will spin another cold front onshore today. Light rain has is already moved onto the northern Oregon coast and is expected to penetrate as far south and east as Salem by this evening. Ahead of the front, SW transport winds and high mixing heights should create favorable ventilation conditions. Southerly surface winds this morning should veer to the SW around midday. The limiting factors for field-burning will be the dampness of fields and the speed of the approaching cold front. TODAY'S FORECAST: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain by this evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 11 a.m. and to 50% around 2 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; SW 7-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10 mph this morning; WSW 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising above 3000 feet by noon and above 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 31st: High 76?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Wednesday through Friday, an upper-level trough is predicted to move over Oregon. That will keep temperatures below average with scattered showers and a chance of afternoon thundershowers. Just light rainfall totals are generally expected, but brief intense showers are possible. Drier and warmer weather will return over the Labor Day weekend, with temperatures recovering to near average. There are indications that a prolonged period of sunny and very warm weather may begin next week with the potential for strong offshore flow. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 1 11:38:47 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2015 18:38:47 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT MON SEP 1, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong upper-level trough, in the Gulf of Alaska, is increasing the WSW flow aloft over the region. A slow-moving cold front is spreading light rain across much of western Washington and the NW tip of Oregon. Ahead of the cold front, mostly sunny skies and southerly winds helped temperatures warm to near 70?F across the Willamette Valley by late this morning. Warm surface temperatures have already pushed mixing heights above 3000 feet, and mixing heights above 5000 feet can be expected this afternoon. An 11 a.m. PIBAL showed SSW transport winds, which are expected to veer to the WSW by late this afternoon. Another PIBAL is scheduled for noon. Good mixing and SW winds should provide favorable burning conditions today, although the dampness of fields will continue to be a limiting factor. Light rain will likely push across the Willamette Valley by tonight, with overnight rainfall totals expected to be less than one-tenth of an inch. TODAY'S FORECAST: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain this evening and overnight. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 45% around 2 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph; becoming WSW 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising above 5000 feet this afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 31st: High 76?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Wednesday through Friday, an upper-level trough is predicted to move over Oregon. That will keep temperatures below average with scattered showers and a chance of afternoon thundershowers. Spotty and light rainfall totals are generally expected, but brief intense showers are possible. Predicted WNW transport winds may provide some burning opportunities Wednesday and Thursday, if fields remain dry and there is not too much shower activity. Transport winds are expected to turn mostly northerly by Friday. Drier and warmer weather will return over the Labor Day weekend, with temperatures recovering to near average. There are indications that we could see several days of sunny and very warm weather, beginning next week, with the potential for a period of offshore flow. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 2 08:46:58 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2015 15:46:58 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED SEP 02, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough near the U.S. border is slowly shifting eastward today, keeping the atmosphere unstable under cool, westerly flow aloft. At the surface, a weak ridge is positioned over the foothills of the Cascades, causing spotty showers to dissipate as they cross the Willamette River. Potential for wetting rains exists for the Silverton Hills today, with cloud cover limiting the amount of sunshine available to dry out already-saturated fields. Convective mixing of the atmosphere will begin by mid-day, producing conditions that often fumigate smoke downstream from ignitions. Favorable open burning conditions appear unlikely today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy with rain showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S-SW 5-10 mph this morning; W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: W-SW 10-15 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet throughout the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:47 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 1st: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 120) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough will move over the region Thursday and Friday with showers and isolated thunderstorms. This unstable weather pattern is unfavorable for open burning activities. Onshore surface gradients will becoming more northerly by Friday afternoon. An upper-level ridge will approach the Pacific Northwest slowly over the holiday weekend, building in strength as it nears Oregon. An area of higher pressure will form over the Willamette Valley, producing sunny skies and above-average temperatures. Warm and sunny weather is predicted through Labor Day and into next week, allowing fields to continue drying out. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 2 11:40:01 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2015 18:40:01 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED SEP 02, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough near the U.S. border is slowly shifting eastward today, keeping the atmosphere unstable under cool, westerly flow aloft. Clouds from spotty morning showers are breaking up now, but more scattered showers are expected later this afternoon. Potential for wetting rains exists for the Silverton Hills today. Onshore gradients are flat, with +1.1mb from Newport to Salem and from Salem to Redmond. Convective mixing of the atmosphere is already developing, producing conditions that often complicate open burning activities. Favorable open burning conditions appear unlikely today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy with rain showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet throughout the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:47 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 1st: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 120) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough will move over the region Thursday and Friday with showers and isolated thunderstorms. This unstable weather pattern is unfavorable for open burning activities. Onshore surface gradients will becoming more northerly by Friday afternoon. An upper-level ridge will approach the Pacific Northwest slowly over the holiday weekend, building in strength as it nears Oregon. An area of higher pressure will form over the Willamette Valley, producing sunny skies and above-average temperatures. Warm and sunny weather is predicted through Labor Day and into next week, allowing fields to continue drying out. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 3 08:34:07 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2015 15:34:07 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU SEP 03, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is recommended between 8 a.m and 1 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough near the U.S. border will shift slowly south today, kicking out a smaller trough aloft ahead of it. This disturbance will form a band of rain showers at the surface this morning that will sweep across the Silverton Hills in the late afternoon. Mixing heights start out poor, but the atmosphere will rapidly become unstable early this afternoon as the weak cold front enter the Willamette Valley. Winds will be steady from the west throughout the day. Due to elevated humidity and convective mixing conditions, it is unlikely to that favorable open burning conditions will develop today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy with isolated showers this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 67?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% after 1 p.m., bottoming out near 55% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: W-SW 5-10 mph this morning; W-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: W 5-10 mph this morning; W-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and above 5000 feet after 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:46 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 2nd: High 70?F; Rainfall: Trace [Less than 0.05 of an inch]) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough will shift over the region Friday, with showers and isolated thunderstorms. This unstable weather pattern is unfavorable for open burning activities. Onshore surface gradients will becoming more northerly by Friday evening behind a cold front. Less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall is predicted for the Silverton Hills. An upper-level ridge will approach the Pacific Northwest slowly over the holiday weekend, building in strength as it nears Oregon. An area of higher pressure will form over the Willamette Valley, producing mostly sunny skies and above-average temperatures. A weak upper-level trough will slide across the Washington/Oregon border on Labor Day morning, increasing the clouds over the Silverton Hills. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 3 11:40:41 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2015 18:40:41 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU SEP 03, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is recommended between 8 a.m and 1 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough near the U.S. border will shift slowly south today, kicking out a smaller trough aloft ahead of it. This disturbance will form a band of rain showers at the surface this morning that will sweep across the Silverton Hills in the afternoon. Mixing heights start out poor, but the atmosphere will rapidly become unstable early this afternoon as the weak cold front enter the Willamette Valley. Winds will be steady from the west throughout the day. Due to elevated humidity and convective mixing conditions, it is unlikely to that favorable open burning conditions will develop today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy with isolated showers this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 67?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% after 1 p.m., bottoming out near 55% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: W-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet currently and above 5000 feet after 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:46 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 2nd: High 70?F; Rainfall: Trace [Less than 0.05 of an inch]) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough will shift over the region Friday, with showers and isolated thunderstorms. This unstable weather pattern is unfavorable for open burning activities. Onshore surface gradients will becoming more northerly by Friday evening behind a cold front. Less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall is predicted for the Silverton Hills. An upper-level ridge will approach the Pacific Northwest slowly over the holiday weekend, building in strength as it nears Oregon. An area of higher pressure will form over the Willamette Valley, producing mostly sunny skies and above-average temperatures. A weak upper-level trough will slide across the Washington/Oregon border on Labor Day morning, increasing the clouds over the Silverton Hills. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 4 08:43:08 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2015 15:43:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 04, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is over the Oregon coast, and will slide south throughout the day. The atmosphere will become rapidly unstable as this occurs, with vigorous mixing producing scattered showers this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in higher elevations of the Cascades. Wetting rains just over a tenth of an inch are predicted for the Silverton Hills today, tapering off after sunset. Northerly winds will prevail throughout the day and become breezy with the arrival of showers, making favorable open burning conditions unlikely ahead of the holiday weekend. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Windy with scattered showers this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 67?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% after 11 a.m., bottoming out near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph this morning; N-NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet after 11 a.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:44 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 3rd: High 69?F; Rainfall: Trace [Less than 0.005 of an inch]) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 110) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough will weaken and shift east of the Cascades Saturday, clearing skies out and allowing ample sunshine to begin drying out the atmosphere. A weaker upper-level trough will follow behind it on Sunday, passing over Washington and keeping westerly flow over Oregon. Temperatures will rise above seasonal averages on Sunday afternoon. No rainfall is expected to occur in the Silverton Hills. Labor Day will see patchy fog move into the Willamette Valley from the north and gaps in the Coast Range. Some light drizzle is possible. An upper-level ridge will pass north of Oregon, stabilizing the atmosphere and keeping northerly winds over the Silverton Hills. An area of higher pressure at the surface will form off the coast of Oregon and persist through the end of the week. Though winds will be more northerly, fields will have an opportunity to continue drying out and there may be limited opportunities for open burning later in the week as onshore flow strengthens. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 4 11:35:55 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2015 18:35:55 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 04, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is over the Oregon coast, and will slide south throughout the day. The atmosphere will become rapidly unstable as this occurs, with vigorous mixing producing scattered showers already in the northern Willamette Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in higher elevations of the Cascades. Wetting rains just over a tenth of an inch are predicted for the Silverton Hills today, tapering off after sunset. Northerly winds will prevail throughout the day and become breezy with the arrival of showers, making favorable open burning conditions unlikely ahead of the holiday weekend. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Windy with scattered thunder showers this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 63?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Remaining above 60% for the rest of the day. Surface winds: N-NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet through the rest of the day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:44 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 3rd: High 69?F; Rainfall: Trace [Less than 0.005 of an inch]) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 110) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough will weaken and shift east of the Cascades Saturday, clearing skies out and allowing ample sunshine to begin drying out the atmosphere. A weaker upper-level trough will follow behind it on Sunday, passing over Washington and keeping westerly flow over Oregon. Temperatures will rise above seasonal averages on Sunday afternoon. No rainfall is expected to occur in the Silverton Hills. Labor Day will see patchy fog move into the Willamette Valley from the north and gaps in the Coast Range. Some light drizzle is possible. An upper-level ridge will pass north of Oregon, stabilizing the atmosphere and keeping northerly winds over the Silverton Hills. An area of higher pressure at the surface will form off the coast of Oregon and persist through the end of the week. Though winds will be more northerly, fields will have an opportunity to continue drying out and there may be limited opportunities for open burning later in the week as onshore flow strengthens. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 8 08:37:33 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2015 15:37:33 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE SEP 08, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is currently off the coast of Oregon, suppressing mixing as it warms the air aloft. Down at the surface, an area of higher pressure near the Oregon coast is creating northerly winds, which will increase as the Silverton Hills heat up today above seasonal averages. Wind direction and speeds may not produce favorable open burning opportunities today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Windy and warm this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 10-15 mph this morning; N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet after 2 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:36 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 7th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen as the week progresses, remaining stationary off the coast of Oregon through Friday afternoon. Higher pressure will maintain northerly winds over the Silverton Hills, warming air further above seasonal averages and producing summer-like conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear during the day, with no rainfall expected at this time. Onshore gradients will be weak, and are likely to be the key factor to determine whether favorable open burning conditions develop later this week. The current outlook does not indicate a return to westerly flow over Oregon until early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 8 11:35:33 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2015 18:35:33 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE SEP 08, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is currently off the coast of Oregon, suppressing mixing as it warms the air aloft. Down at the surface, an area of higher pressure near the Oregon coast is creating northerly winds, which will increase as the Silverton Hills heat up today above seasonal averages. A "Medford Draw" is helping funnel winds south through the Willamette Valley and an offshore gradient from Redmond to Salem is tipping the wind direction in an unfavorable northeasterly direction. These conditions are not likely to improve this afternoon. Mixing heights will fall rapidly as sunset approaches, forming an inversion quickly after dark. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Windy and warm this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet after 2 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:36 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 7th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen as the week progresses, remaining stationary off the coast of Oregon through Friday afternoon. Higher pressure will maintain northerly winds over the Silverton Hills, warming air further above seasonal averages and producing summer-like conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear during the day, with no rainfall expected at this time. Onshore gradients will be weak, and are likely to be the key factor to determine whether favorable open burning conditions develop later this week. The current outlook does not indicate a return to westerly flow over Oregon until early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 9 08:37:11 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2015 15:37:11 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED SEP 09, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is currently off the coast of Oregon, suppressing mixing as it warms the air aloft. An area of higher pressure at the surface off the coast of Washington has pushed marine clouds into the northern Willamette Valley, reaching the Silverton Hills just after sunrise. Heating should initially occur faster east of the Cascades, which will work to reverse the current offshore gradients from Redmond to Salem. This will back winds slightly to the northwest, and may present limited open burning opportunities ahead of a mild sea breeze this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Sunny and warm this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this morning; N-NE 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet after 2 p.m. and 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:34 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 8th: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen as the week progresses, remaining stationary off the coast of Oregon through Friday afternoon. Higher pressure will maintain northerly winds over the Silverton Hills, warming air further above seasonal averages and producing summer-like conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear during the day, with no rainfall expected at this time. Onshore gradients will be weak, and are likely to be the key factor to determine whether favorable open burning conditions develop later this week. The current outlook does not indicate a return to westerly flow over Oregon until early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 9 11:37:03 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2015 18:37:03 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED SEP 09, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is currently off the coast of Oregon, suppressing mixing as it warms the air aloft. An area of higher pressure at the surface off the coast of Washington is producing northerly winds, and morning cloud cover has dissipated with heating. Light onshore gradients have developed, with +0.7mb from Newport to Salem and +0.4mb from Salem to Redmond. Winds are beginning to pitch slightly more northwesterly, and the longer they remain so, the stronger the sea breeze will be this evening. Favorable open burning conditions are likely to be present for a brief window in the afternoon, and heavily determined by geography south of Highway 22. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy becoming Sunny and warm this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet after 2 p.m. and 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:34 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 8th: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen as the week progresses, remaining stationary off the coast of Oregon through Friday afternoon. Higher pressure will maintain northerly winds over the Silverton Hills, warming air further above seasonal averages and producing summer-like conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear during the day, with no rainfall expected at this time. Onshore gradients will be weak, and are likely to be the key factor to determine whether favorable open burning conditions develop later this week. The current outlook does not indicate a return to westerly flow over Oregon until early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 10 08:35:16 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2015 15:35:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU SEP 10, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is currently off the coast of Oregon, suppressing mixing as it warms the air aloft. At the surface, higher pressure over central Oregon is producing light offshore flow, keeping skies clear this morning. Heating will rapidly occur throughout western Oregon, with winds becoming breezy as the morning inversion quickly dissipates. A thermal trough will form over the Silverton Hills, but the very warm air aloft will cap mixing heights and produce hazy conditions this afternoon as temperatures rise well above seasonal averages. Conditions are likely to remain unfavorable for open burning as a result. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny becoming hazy and very warm this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 89?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 5-15 mph this morning; N-NE 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 5-15 mph this morning; N-NE 5-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Below 3000 feet all day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 8th: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen as the week progresses, remaining stationary off the coast of Oregon through Friday afternoon. Higher pressure will maintain northerly winds over the Silverton Hills, warming air further above seasonal averages and producing summer-like conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear during the day, with no rainfall expected at this time. Onshore gradients will be weak, and are likely to be the key factor to determine whether favorable open burning conditions develop later this week. Early Saturday morning, an upper-level trough will approach the southern coast of Oregon and switch the flow aloft to southwesterly. This will begin to cool the air aloft and weaken the upper-level ridge over our region, pushing it further east into Idaho by Sunday. Monday will see onshore flow with increasing clouds throughout the day, as a second upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska. An area of lower pressure will form off the coast of Washington, with a cold front sweeping across the Silverton Hills Monday evening with isolated showers. Onshore flow persists for the remainder of the week, leaving the door open for additional field burning operations. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 10 08:37:27 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2015 15:37:27 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom (CORRECTION) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU SEP 10, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is currently off the coast of Oregon, suppressing mixing as it warms the air aloft. At the surface, higher pressure over central Oregon is producing light offshore flow, keeping skies clear this morning. Heating will rapidly occur throughout western Oregon, with winds becoming breezy as the morning inversion quickly dissipates. A thermal trough will form over the Silverton Hills, but the very warm air aloft will cap mixing heights and produce hazy conditions this afternoon as temperatures rise well above seasonal averages. Conditions are likely to remain unfavorable for open burning as a result. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny becoming hazy and very warm this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 89?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 5-15 mph this morning; N-NE 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 5-15 mph this morning; N-NE 5-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Below 3000 feet all day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 9th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen as the week progresses, remaining stationary off the coast of Oregon through Friday afternoon. Higher pressure will maintain northerly winds over the Silverton Hills, warming air further above seasonal averages and producing summer-like conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear during the day, with no rainfall expected at this time. Onshore gradients will be weak, and are likely to be the key factor to determine whether favorable open burning conditions develop later this week. Early Saturday morning, an upper-level trough will approach the southern coast of Oregon and switch the flow aloft to southwesterly. This will begin to cool the air aloft and weaken the upper-level ridge over our region, pushing it further east into Idaho by Sunday. Monday will see onshore flow with increasing clouds throughout the day, as a second upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska. An area of lower pressure will form off the coast of Washington, with a cold front sweeping across the Silverton Hills Monday evening with isolated showers. Onshore flow persists for the remainder of the week, leaving the door open for additional field burning operations. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 10 11:32:35 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2015 18:32:35 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU SEP 10, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, from low humidity and breezy winds, may be observed this afternoon.*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is currently off the coast of Oregon, suppressing mixing as it warms the air aloft. At the surface, higher pressure over central Oregon is keeping skies clear. An offshore gradient of -1.1mb from Redmond to Salem is producing northeasterly winds, while a "Medford Draw" is strong enough to make winds breezy. Humidity will rapidly drop, and it is possible that State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban criteria will be observed briefly this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny becoming hazy and very warm this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 89?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 10-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Below 3000 feet all day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 9th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will slowly drift over western Oregon Friday, restricting mixing for one more day. Higher pressure will maintain northerly winds over the Silverton Hills, with Friday being the warmest day of the week in the Silverton Hills. A "Medford Draw" is likely to make winds breezy again and prevent onshore flow from developing. Early Saturday morning, an upper-level trough will approach the southern coast of Oregon and switch the flow aloft to southwesterly. This will begin to cool the air aloft and weaken the upper-level ridge over our region, pushing it further east into Idaho by Sunday. Monday will see onshore flow with increasing clouds throughout the day, as a second upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. An area of lower pressure will form off the coast of Washington. A cold front sweeps across the Silverton Hills early Monday evening with isolated showers. A second storm system mid-week is expected to produce wetting rains across the Silverton Hills. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 11 08:32:10 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2015 15:32:10 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 11, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions, for high temperatures and low humidity, are likely this afternoon.*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is currently over western Oregon, and it will slowly enter the Cascades later today. At the surface, a thermal trough is positioned in the Willamette Valley, with higher pressure in central Oregon creating a strong offshore gradient of -5.3mb from Redmond to Salem. These factors will cause temperatures to soar well above seasonal averages as humidity plummets, possibly developing State Fire Marshal conditions this afternoon. Mixing of the atmosphere will be significantly restricted, remaining below 3000 feet all day. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming hazy and hot this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 20% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this morning; N-NE 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NE 5-10 mph this morning; N-NE 5-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Below 3000 feet all day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 10th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 41) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Early Saturday morning, a weak upper-level trough will approach the southern coast of Oregon and switch the flow aloft to southeasterly. This will allow clouds to slowly move in from the south, restricting the amount of heating over the weekend. Temperatures will begin to drop closer to seasonal norms through Sunday, though western Oregon will remain warmer than usual for September. The upper-level trough will fill and be pushed back south into California Sunday evening. Monday will see onshore flow with increasing clouds throughout the day, as a second upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska. An area of lower pressure will form off the coast of Washington. A cold front sweeps across the Silverton Hills Monday evening with isolated showers. A second storm system mid-week will bring scattered showers with wetting rains to the Silverton Hills. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in higher elevations Wednesday afternoon, with spotty showers tapering off by Friday morning. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 11 11:34:50 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2015 18:34:50 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 11, 2015 ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions, for high temperatures and low humidity, are likely this afternoon.*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is currently over western Oregon, and it will slowly enter the Cascades later today. At the surface, a thermal trough is positioned in the Willamette Valley, with higher pressure in central Oregon creating a strong offshore gradient of -4.1mb from Redmond to Salem. These factors will cause temperatures to soar well above seasonal averages as humidity plummets, possibly developing State Fire Marshal conditions this afternoon. Mixing of the atmosphere will be significantly restricted. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming hazy and hot this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 20% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 5-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Below 3000 feet all day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 10th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 41) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Early Saturday morning, a weak upper-level trough will approach the southern coast of Oregon and switch the flow aloft to southeasterly. This will allow clouds to slowly move in from the south, restricting the amount of heating over the weekend. Temperatures will begin to drop closer to seasonal norms through Sunday, though western Oregon will remain warmer than usual for September. The upper-level trough will fill and be pushed back south into California Sunday evening. Monday will see onshore flow with increasing clouds throughout the day, as a second upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska. An area of lower pressure will form off the coast of Washington. A cold front sweeps across the Silverton Hills Monday evening with isolated showers. A second storm system mid-week will bring scattered showers with wetting rains to the Silverton Hills. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in higher elevations Wednesday afternoon, with spotty showers tapering off by Friday morning. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 14 08:44:26 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2015 15:44:26 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON SEP 14, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough currently resides over the eastern Pacific this morning just off the Oregon coast. A weak surface front has spread mainly middle and high clouds over most of the state this morning. Radar shows some minor showers moving onto the coast but models indicate moisture is very limited. Atmosphere is generally stable. Transport winds are N to NNE at 10 - 18 mph with surface winds N at 5 - 10 mph. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked with +0.0 mb from Newport to Salem and +2.9 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level trough will swing into the state today and tonight creating instability and a chance for some light afternoon showers. Mixing heights will lift to 5000 ft or above by mid-afternoon. However, wind flow appears it will remain mostly northerly into the afternoon before turning NW'erly during the later afternoon. Will need to monitor carefully to determine if a burn opportunity opens up. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 68 degrees (average is 78). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent around 1 p.m. and reach a low near 50 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: N at 6 - 12 mph becoming NW'erly at 6 - 12 mph around mid-afternoon. Transport winds: N to NNE at 10 - 18 mph shifting to N to NW at 10 - 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3500 ft by 11 a.m., rising above 5000 ft by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:25 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 13: High 79?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level trough will remain over the region for much of the week bringing impulses of moisture into the region. Expect a continued chance of showers Tuesday but with wind flow turning more SW'erly. If fields remain dry, another burn opportunity may arise. A stronger front will move through the trough on Wednesday and likely produce wetting rains with showers continuing into Thursday. Friday looks like a drying day as a flat, upper level ridge moves in. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 14 11:48:06 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2015 18:48:06 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON SEP 14, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level trough currently resides over the eastern Pacific this morning just off the Oregon coast. A weakening surface front is keeping mostly cloudy skies over the region. Radar shows shower activity to the northwest but so far not a threat to the Silverton Hills area. Atmosphere is destabilizing as temperatures warm. Transport winds remain N to NNE at 10 - 18 mph with surface winds N to NE at 8 - 12 mph. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked with +0.6 mb from Newport to Salem and +3.2 mb from Salem to Redmond. Upper level trough will swing into the state today and tonight creating instability and a chance for some light afternoon showers. Mixing heights will lift to 5000 ft or above by mid-afternoon. Wind flow appears it will remain mostly northerly into the afternoon before turning NW'erly during the later afternoon. Will need to monitor carefully to determine if a burn opportunity opens up. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 68 degrees (average is 78). Relative humidity: Has dropped below 60 percent and will reach a low of 40 - 45 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: N at 6 - 12 mph becoming NW'erly at 5 - 10 mph after 3 p.m. Transport winds: N at 10 - 18 mph shifting to N to NW at 8 - 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising above 5000 ft by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:25 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 13: High 79?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level trough will remain over the region for much of the week bringing impulses of moisture into the region. Expect a continued chance of showers Tuesday but with wind flow turning more SW'erly. If fields remain dry, another burn opportunity may arise. A stronger front will move through the trough on Wednesday and likely produce wetting rains with showers continuing into Thursday. Friday looks like a drying day as a flat, upper level ridge moves in. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 15 08:50:21 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2015 15:50:21 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE SEP 15, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough remains over the Pacific Northwest with the main jet stream directed at California. The air mass is unseasonably cool. The freezing level over Salem was measured at just 6000 feet this morning. A weather disturbance just offshore will be directed mainly south of the region today, but it will keep skies generally cloudy with a threat of light rain. High relative humidity levels and the threat of rain will be limiting factors for open burning today. Surface and transport winds should be mostly south to SW today, which sets the humidity threshold for open burning at 65%. Very cool air aloft should provide favorable mixing heights this afternoon, even with well below average surface temperatures. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy. Chance of sprinkles or very light rain. Salem's high temperature today will be near 63?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 65% around noon and to 55% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; SW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around noon and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 14th: High 64?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A stronger weather system is predicted to move onshore Wednesday, but the main precipitation region will be directed into southern Oregon and California. Light rain will likely spread across the NW Oregon by Wednesday afternoon and increase Wednesday night and Thursday. Rainfall totals should exceed one-tenth of an inch and may locally approach one-half inch in the Silverton Hills. A transitory upper-level ridge will bring dry and warmer weather Friday and Saturday. The ridge is expected to weaken by Sunday with increasing westerly flow aloft. Another weather system may bring light rain to NW Oregon Sunday night and Monday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 15 11:52:26 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2015 18:52:26 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT TUE SEP 15, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A slow-moving weather system, centered about 200 miles west of the Oregon coast, is keeping skies cloudy across all of western Oregon. Radar is showing showers just off the northern coast, but no rain has been reported by inland stations, except for some sprinkles over SW Oregon. The jet stream is centered over California, so this system is expected to weaken as it moves inland later today and tonight. However, it will keep skies cloudy with a chance of sprinkles or very light rain. High relative humidity levels and the threat of rain will be limiting factors for open burning today, along with wind direction. Fields will need to remain dry and southerly transport winds will need to veer to the SW for burning to occur this afternoon. Cool air aloft should provide favorable mixing heights, even with well below average surface temperatures. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy. Chance of sprinkles or very light rain. Salem's high temperature today will be near 63?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Near 60% at midday; dropping to near 55% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph; becoming SW 7-12 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: S 10 mph; becoming SW 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3000 feet at midday; rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 14th: High 64?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A stronger weather system is predicted to move onshore Wednesday, but the main precipitation region will be directed into southern Oregon and California. Light rain will likely spread across the NW Oregon by Wednesday afternoon and increase Wednesday night and Thursday. Rainfall totals should exceed one-tenth of an inch and may locally approach one-half inch in the Silverton Hills. A transitory upper-level ridge will bring dry and warmer weather Friday and Saturday. The ridge is expected to weaken by Sunday with increasing westerly flow aloft. Another weather system may bring showers to NW Oregon Sunday night and Monday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 16 08:34:23 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2015 15:34:23 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED SEP 16, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is recommended between 8 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. today north of Lane County. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is off the coast of Oregon, and it will slow its approach as it deepens today. This will continue to develop a surface frontal system that is approaching the Willamette Valley from southwestern Oregon. The Warm Front will pass over the Silverton Hills before noon, weakening offshore gradients between Redmond and Newport. Southerly winds will become breezy and turn more southwesterly this afternoon. Scattered showers will bring wetting rains to the Silverton Hills this afternoon, becoming heavier as a Cold Front passes through before sunset. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Cascades. TODAY'S FORECAST: Overcast with rain becoming showery this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 63?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 60% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 15-20 mph this morning; S-SW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S-SW 35-40 mph this morning; SW 35-40 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 4000 feet by 11 a.m. and above 5000 feet after 1 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:21 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 15th: High 65?F; Rainfall: .04") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 200) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough will cross western Oregon on Thursday, as another disturbance energizes it and enhances mixing. An area of lower pressure off the coast of Oregon will generate another frontal system, bringing another day of breezy winds and showers to the Silverton Hills. Wetting rains up to a quarter of an inch in higher elevations are expected. Friday begins a transition into more mild weather, as an upper-level ridge begins to develop out over the Pacific Ocean. This will begin to warm and dry the atmosphere ahead of the weekend. Mixing will become suppressed as an area of higher pressure forms near the Oregon coast. Onshore gradients will begin to develop under sunny skies, and light westerly winds will develop over the Silverton Hills on Sunday as flow splits near Newport. This may produce favorable open burning conditions Sunday afternoon after several drying days. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 16 11:34:21 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2015 18:34:21 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED SEP 16, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is recommended between 8 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. today north of Lane County. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is off the coast of Oregon, and it will slow its approach as it deepens today. This will continue to develop a surface frontal system that is approaching the Willamette Valley from southwestern Oregon. Offshore flow is still prevalent, with -2.5mb from Redmond to Newport. Humidity is currently very high and not expected to drop below 60% today before afternoon showers arrive. The temperature has heated enough from partial sunbreaks to reach the convective temperature, so there is a high likelihood that any smoke that is elevated will down-mix and fumigate downstream communities. Surface winds are becoming steady out of the southeast, and may become breezy at times as winds shift to more southwesterly flow with today's showers. TODAY'S FORECAST: Overcast with rain becoming showery this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 63?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 60% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S-SW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 35-40 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet after 1 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:21 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 15th: High 65?F; Rainfall: .04") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 200) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough will cross western Oregon on Thursday, as another disturbance energizes it and enhances mixing. An area of lower pressure off the coast of Oregon will generate another frontal system, bringing another day of breezy winds and showers to the Silverton Hills. Wetting rains up to a quarter of an inch in higher elevations are expected. Friday begins a transition into more mild weather, as an upper-level ridge begins to develop out over the Pacific Ocean. This will begin to warm and dry the atmosphere ahead of the weekend. Mixing will become suppressed as an area of higher pressure forms near the Oregon coast. Onshore gradients will begin to develop under sunny skies, and light westerly winds will develop over the Silverton Hills on Sunday as flow splits near Newport. This may produce favorable open burning conditions Sunday afternoon after several drying days. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 17 08:32:31 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2015 15:32:31 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU SEP 17, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is recommended between 8 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. today north of Lane County. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is moving into the Oregon coast, and will transit across the Silverton Hills this afternoon. Cool, moist air aloft should mix down to the surface throughout the day, bringing scattered showers. Wetting rains fell before sunrise, and cloud cover with additional showers are likely to keep soil damp today. Onshore flow will be breezy today, becoming steady west-by-northwest winds as showers taper off after sunset. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy with showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 67?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 55% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 12-18 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: W 15-20 mph this morning; SW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet all day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:19 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 16th: High 71?F; Rainfall: .31") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Friday begins a transition into more mild weather, as an upper-level ridge begins to develop out over the Pacific Ocean. This will begin to warm and dry the atmosphere ahead of the weekend. Mixing will start out poor under morning inversions, but the September sun will improve mixing quickly after sunrise. Onshore gradients will begin to develop under sunny skies, and light westerly winds will develop over the Silverton Hills on Sunday as flow splits near Newport. These factors continue to indicate ample potential for favorable open burning opportunities Sunday afternoon. An upper-level trough will pass across northern Washington, returning clouds to Oregon as autumn "officially" begins on Monday. Cooler, onshore flow will continue across the Silverton Hills, keeping temperatures near seasonal averages. Mild weather with onshore gradients is likely to persist through the end of the week, as an upper-level trough remains in the Gulf of Alaska. The air aloft will cool and mix easily after daytime heating, as transport winds turn more southwesterly. This suggests the possibility of multiple days of favorable open burning conditions next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 17 11:32:15 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2015 18:32:15 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU SEP 17, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is recommended between 8 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. today north of Lane County. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is moving into the Oregon coast, and will transit across the Silverton Hills this afternoon. Cool, moist air aloft should mix down to the surface throughout the day, bringing scattered showers. Wetting rains fell before sunrise, and cloud cover with additional showers are keeping humidity high and temperatures moderated. There is an onshore gradient of +1.0mb from Newport to Salem, balanced out by offshore flow of -1.1mb from Redmond to Salem, keeping winds steady from the south. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy with showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 67?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 55% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S-SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet all day. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:19 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 16th: High 71?F; Rainfall: .31") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Friday begins a transition into more mild weather, as an upper-level ridge begins to develop out over the Pacific Ocean. This will begin to warm and dry the atmosphere ahead of the weekend. Mixing will start out poor under morning inversions, but the September sun will improve mixing quickly after sunrise. Onshore gradients will begin to develop under sunny skies, and light westerly winds will develop over the Silverton Hills on Sunday as flow splits near Newport. These factors continue to indicate ample potential for favorable open burning opportunities Sunday afternoon. An upper-level trough will pass across northern Washington, returning clouds to Oregon as autumn "officially" begins on Monday. Cooler, onshore flow will continue across the Silverton Hills, keeping temperatures near seasonal averages. Mild weather with onshore gradients is likely to persist through the end of the week, as an upper-level trough remains in the Gulf of Alaska. The air aloft will cool and mix easily after daytime heating, as transport winds turn more southwesterly. This suggests the possibility of multiple days of favorable open burning conditions next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 18 08:44:47 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2015 15:44:47 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 18, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is recommended between 11 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. today north of Lane County. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A flat upper-level ridge is slowly developing over the Pacific Ocean, and will turn flow a bit more northwesterly today as the air begins to warm. At the surface, an area of higher pressure over central Oregon has produced offshore flow. Gradients are -1.4mb from Redmond to Salem, and -0.4mb from Salem to Newport. Mixing will be slow to improve, as morning clouds have moved in over a weak inversion. No rainfall is expected today, beginning a period of dry weather for the Silverton Hills. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Sunny this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet after 11 a.m. and above 5000 feet after 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:17 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 16th: High 70?F; Rainfall: .59") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will move east over the Oregon coast on Saturday, warming the air aloft and restricting mixing conditions. The area of higher pressure at the surface will shift east of the Cascades, and clear skies will raise temperatures above seasonal averages over the Willamette Valley. Weak onshore flow will develop after sunset Saturday evening. Sunday sees the upper-level ridge shift east of the Cascades, and an upper-level trough will be approaching the Washington coastline. Light gradients will become steady onshore, as a weak mid-level trough crosses the Coast Range Sunday afternoon. Transport winds will be southwesterly as a result, with surface winds becoming more southwesterly as the day progresses. Ample sunshine in the morning hours should break the inversion quickly, allowing mixing conditions to become favorable for open burning operations. A mild sea breeze during the evening hours will allow marine air to enter the Willamette Valley through mountain gaps and the Portland area overnight. Monday morning will start the week off cool, with fog throughout much of the Willamette Valley restricting the amount of warming that occurs before mid-day. The jet stream will be positioned roughly over the Columbia River, keeping progressive westerly flow over Oregon through the week. Skies should be clear to partly cloudy, with most of the moisture further north in Washington. Temperatures are likely to be slightly above seasonal averages. The potential for multiple days of favorable weather for open burning continues to look promising. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 18 11:35:27 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2015 18:35:27 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 18, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is recommended to be limited to the hours between 11 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. today. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A flat upper-level ridge is slowly developing over the Pacific Ocean, and will turn flow a bit more northwesterly today as the air begins to warm. At the surface, an area of higher pressure over Oregon has produced weak offshore flow. Gradients are -0.2mb from Redmond to Salem, and -0.3mb from Salem to Newport. Mixing is improving, as heating in the valley has lifted and scattered clouds. No rainfall is expected today, beginning a period of dry weather for the Silverton Hills. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Sunny this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet after 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:17 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 16th: High 70?F; Rainfall: .59") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge will move east over the Oregon coast on Saturday, warming the air aloft and restricting mixing conditions. The area of higher pressure at the surface will shift east of the Cascades, and clear skies will raise temperatures above seasonal averages over the Willamette Valley. Weak onshore flow will develop after sunset Saturday evening. Sunday sees the upper-level ridge shift east of the Cascades, and an upper-level trough will be approaching the Washington coastline. Light gradients will become steady onshore, as a weak mid-level trough crosses the Coast Range Sunday afternoon. Transport winds will be southwesterly as a result, with surface winds becoming more southwesterly as the day progresses. Open burning appears favorable for the afternoon hours. Monday morning will start the week off cool, with fog throughout much of the Willamette Valley restricting the amount of warming that occurs before mid-day. The jet stream will be positioned roughly over the Columbia River, keeping progressive westerly flow over Oregon through the week. Skies should be clear to partly cloudy, with most of the moisture further north in Washington. Temperatures are likely to be slightly above seasonal averages. The potential for multiple days of favorable weather for open burning continues to look promising. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sun Sep 20 09:18:12 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2015 16:18:12 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:15 AM PDT SUN SEP 20, 2015 *** Supplemental Weekend Forecast. *** *** An Updated Forecast Will Be Issued Around 11:45 a.m. *** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge that brought sunny and warm weather to western Oregon on Saturday is beginning to weaken. Increasing westerly flow aloft has turned low-level winds onshore and forced extensive low clouds across western Washington and the extreme NW corner of Oregon. Skies are mostly sunny this morning from Marion County southward across the interior of western Oregon. A cold front is expected to push inland across western Washington this afternoon with increasing clouds across NW Oregon. Cooling aloft should combine with daytime heating to push mixing heights above 3000 feet by early this afternoon. Westerly transport winds should make for favorable burning conditions for dry and/or fluffed fields. PIBALS are scheduled to begin around noon, to closely monitor transport winds for the possibility of burning this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny with near-average temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 2-6 mph this morning; SW 3-8 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-8 mph this morning; becoming W 7-12 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 1 p.m. and to near 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:14 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Saturday, September 19th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 55) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak cold front should bring a significant marine push overnight along the areas of very light rain. Rainfall totals are expected to be less than one-tenth of an inch. Look for just some afternoon clearing on Monday with temperatures struggling to reach the low-70s. Unfavorable burning conditions are expected due to gradient-stacking and northerly winds. Very little change is in store for Tuesday with morning clouds and afternoon clearing. Temperatures will remain slightly below average. Unfavorable gradients and mostly northerly winds will make burning unlikely. The flow aloft should turn more southwesterly by Wednesday, ahead of a developing weather system. That may create more favorable burning conditions Wednesday afternoon, with transport winds turning to the WSW. There may be another burning opportunity Thursday afternoon, depending on the timing of an approaching cold front. Wetting rains are expected Thursday night with showers lasting into Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sun Sep 20 11:53:58 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2015 18:53:58 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT SUN SEP 20, 2015 *** Supplemental Weekend Forecast. *** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Increasing westerly flow aloft has forced extensive low clouds across western Washington and extreme NW Oregon. However, skies are still mostly sunny from Marion County southward across the interior of western Oregon. That has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower 70s at midday. A cold front is expected to push inland across western Washington this afternoon with increasing clouds across NW Oregon. Cooling aloft should combine with daytime heating to push mixing heights above 3000 feet by early this afternoon. As of late this morning, surface gradients have become favorable to minimize down-mixing of smoke (11 a.m. readings: 1.5mb onshore from Newport to Salem with 0.0mb gradient from Salem to Redmond). South to SW Surface and transport winds are predicted to become mostly westerly this afternoon and northwesterly this evening. Winds will be closely monitored with PIBALS, beginning around noon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny with near-average temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Near 55% at midday; dropping to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph at midday; veering to W 5-10 mph later today. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph at midday; veering to W 7-12 mph later today. Mixing height: near 3000 feet at midday; rising to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:14 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Saturday, September 19th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 55) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak cold front should bring a significant marine push overnight along the areas of very light rain. Rainfall totals are expected to range from a trace to just a few hundredths of an inch. Look for just some afternoon clearing on Monday with temperatures struggling to reach the low-70s. Expect unfavorable gradient-stacking and mostly northerly winds. Very little change is in store for Tuesday with morning clouds and afternoon clearing. Temperatures will remain slightly below average, with continued unfavorable gradients and mostly northerly winds. The flow aloft should turn more southwesterly by Wednesday, ahead of a developing weather system. That may create more favorable burning conditions Wednesday afternoon, with transport winds turning to the WSW. There may be another burning opportunity Thursday afternoon, depending on the timing of an approaching cold front. Wetting rains are expected Thursday night with showers lasting into Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 21 08:54:22 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2015 15:54:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT SUN SEP 20, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 10 a.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak cold front brought areas of very light rain to the northern and central Willamette Valley early this morning and was producing some drizzle in the southern valley at mid-morning. Most rain totals were less than .10". Skies will clear this afternoon with temperatures warming into the mid-70s. cool air aloft will provide excellent daytime mixing, but brisk N-NE transport winds and poor gradient-stacking will be unfavorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Areas of light rain ending this morning; clearing skies this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5-12 mph this morning; N 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:12 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 20th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Salem Airport rainfall this morning: .05") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 55) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A dry SW flow aloft will continue through Tuesday with morning clouds and afternoon clearing. Temperatures will cool slightly, into the low-70s. Afternoon mixing should be good, but mostly northerly winds and gradient-stacking will continue to be limiting factors for burning. Wednesday and Thursday, increasing SW flow aloft may create more favorable burning conditions. Transport winds are predicted to become south to southwesterly ahead of an approaching weather system. Wetting rains are expected Thursday night with showers on Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 21 09:02:22 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2015 16:02:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON SEP 21, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 10 a.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak cold front brought areas of very light rain to the northern and central Willamette Valley early this morning and was producing some drizzle in the southern valley at mid-morning. Most rain totals were less than .10". Skies will clear this afternoon with temperatures warming into the mid-70s. cool air aloft will provide excellent daytime mixing, but brisk N-NE transport winds and poor gradient-stacking will be unfavorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Areas of light rain ending this morning; clearing skies this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5-12 mph this morning; N 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:12 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 20th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Salem Airport rainfall this morning: .05") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 55) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A dry SW flow aloft will continue through Tuesday with morning clouds and afternoon clearing. Temperatures will cool slightly, into the low-70s. Afternoon mixing should be good, but mostly northerly winds and gradient-stacking will continue to be limiting factors for burning. Wednesday and Thursday, increasing SW flow aloft may create more favorable burning conditions. Transport winds are predicted to become south to southwesterly ahead of an approaching weather system. Wetting rains are expected Thursday night with showers on Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 21 11:47:48 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2015 18:47:48 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON SEP 21, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak cold front brought a few hundredths of an inch of rain to the Silverton Hills early this morning. Skies are clearing at midday and will continue clearing this afternoon with temperatures warming into the mid-70s. Cool air aloft will provide excellent daytime mixing, but brisk N-NE winds and poor gradient-stacking will be unfavorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Becoming mostly sunny later this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:12 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 20th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Salem Airport rainfall this morning: .05") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A dry SW flow aloft will continue through Tuesday with morning clouds and afternoon clearing. Temperatures will cool slightly, into the low-70s. Afternoon mixing should be good, but gradient-stacking and persistent north winds may continue to limit burning potential. Wednesday and Thursday, increasing SW flow aloft should create more favorable burning conditions. Gradient-stacking will improve and transport winds are predicted to turn to the S-SW ahead of an approaching weather system. Bottom Line: There should be an opportunity to burn the remaining fields later this week, before wetting rains move into the region Thursday night. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 22 08:54:45 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2015 15:54:45 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT TUE SEP 22, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: After very light rainfall early Monday morning, a drier westerly flow aloft cleared skies Monday afternoon across western Oregon. The flow aloft has backed to southwesterly this morning, with a band of middle and high clouds covering most of NW Oregon. There is a 4500-foot deep marine layer over the valley this morning, with unfavorable gradient-stacking, but the absence of low clouds will help to balance the onshore flow this afternoon. NNE transport winds this morning are predicted to slowly turn to the NNW this afternoon, which could provide an open burning opportunity. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy with slightly below average temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by noon and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: NNE 10 mph this morning; becoming NNW 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:10 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 21st: High 73?F; Rainfall: .05") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Wednesday and Thursday, increasing SW flow aloft should provide very favorable burning conditions both afternoons. Gradient-stacking will improve with mostly SW transport winds. The next weather system is predicted to weaken, as it brings a chance of showers onshore Thursday night. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 22 11:51:48 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2015 18:51:48 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT TUE SEP 22, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A SW flow aloft spread considerable clouds across most of NW Oregon this morning. Water vapor imagery is showing this zone of mid-level moisture pushing east of the region, at midday, with much drier air advancing across NW Oregon. While this may clear skies this afternoon, allowing for more heating, it also greatly increases the chances for smoke down-mixing. At the surface, a deep marine layer covers the valley with light, mostly northerly, winds. Onshore pressure-gradient-stacking worsened during the morning. At 11 a.m., the Newport-to-Salem gradient was 0.6mb onshore, and the Salem-to-Redmond gradient was 3.5mb onshore. Even if winds turn to the NNW later today, it is unlikely that these pressure gradients will balance-out enough to allow for open burning. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Becoming mostly sunny but slightly below average temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N 10 mph at midday; becoming NNW 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3000 feet at midday; rising to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:10 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 21st: High 73?F; Rainfall: .05") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Wednesday and Thursday, increasing SW flow aloft should provide better afternoon burning conditions. Onshore gradients are expected to become more favorable with mostly SW transport winds. A weak weather system may bring a few showers onshore Thursday night. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 23 08:28:16 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2015 15:28:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED SEP 23, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is out over the Pacific Ocean, and has slowed its advance as it deepened overnight. Southwesterly onshore flow aloft will cool the atmosphere as thin clouds drift over Oregon. Down at the surface, southerly flow will become more southwesterly as a surface frontal system begins to develop off the coast of Oregon late this afternoon. Mixing is currently marginal, but will steadily improve as heating occurs today. Light offshore gradients will be present first thing this morning, but are expected to improve quickly as the Sun passes overhead; this will be the key factor to monitor for favorable open burning Wednesday afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies throughout the day. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S-SW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S-SW 10-15 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet after 10 a.m. and 5000 feet after 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 22nd: High 71?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern across western Oregon and the Pacific Northwest at large will become increasingly unsettled for Thursday and Friday. The upper-level trough near the Oregon coast will slowly approach our area, making the atmosphere unstable. A surface frontal system will stretch out Thursday and produce favorable onshore flow with lift, while rainfall is directed further north into Washington. This suggests a dry Cold Front passing through, and bringing in marine air behind it for Friday afternoon. Convection could still occur beneath the upper-level trough, creating problematic gusty winds and conditions that favor down-mixing of smoke emissions. The upper-level trough will weaken and split as it near the Oregon coast Friday evening, with fragments of energy pushed into both northern Washington and back out to sea in the Pacific. An area of higher pressure over Nevada will keep skies mostly clear over Oregon. This will promote light offshore flow as temperatures climb just above seasonal averages for the last weekend of September. The "lost" upper-level trough out over the Pacific will have regained strength by Monday afternoon as it heads due east towards California. A potential storm system at the surface from this feature provides concern through mid-week, as historical evidence shows "Sou'westers" often produce offshore flow and isolated thundershowers for western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 23 09:02:52 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2015 16:02:52 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast (CORRECTION: SW WINDS ALL DAY) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED SEP 23, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is out over the Pacific Ocean, and has slowed its advance as it deepened overnight. Southwesterly onshore flow aloft will cool the atmosphere as thin clouds drift over Oregon. Down at the surface, southerly flow will become more southwesterly as a surface frontal system begins to develop off the coast of Oregon late this afternoon. Mixing is currently marginal, but will steadily improve as heating occurs today. Light offshore gradients will be present first thing this morning, but are expected to improve quickly as the Sun passes overhead; this will be the key factor to monitor for favorable open burning Wednesday afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies throughout the day. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S-SW 5-10 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S-SW 10-15 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet after 10 a.m. and 5000 feet after 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 22nd: High 71?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern across western Oregon and the Pacific Northwest at large will become increasingly unsettled for Thursday and Friday. The upper-level trough near the Oregon coast will slowly approach our area, making the atmosphere unstable. A surface frontal system will stretch out Thursday and produce favorable onshore flow with lift, while rainfall is directed further north into Washington. This suggests a dry Cold Front passing through, and bringing in marine air behind it for Friday afternoon. Convection could still occur beneath the upper-level trough, creating problematic gusty winds and conditions that favor down-mixing of smoke emissions. The upper-level trough will weaken and split as it near the Oregon coast Friday evening, with fragments of energy pushed into both northern Washington and back out to sea in the Pacific. An area of higher pressure over Nevada will keep skies mostly clear over Oregon. This will promote light offshore flow as temperatures climb just above seasonal averages for the last weekend of September. The "lost" upper-level trough out over the Pacific will have regained strength by Monday afternoon as it heads due east towards California. A potential storm system at the surface from this feature provides concern through mid-week, as historical evidence shows "Sou'westers" often produce offshore flow and isolated thundershowers for western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 23 11:37:05 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2015 18:37:05 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED SEP 23, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is out over the Pacific Ocean, and has slowed its advance as it deepened overnight. Southwesterly onshore flow aloft will cool the atmosphere as thin clouds drift over Oregon. Down at the surface, southerly flow will become more southwesterly as a surface frontal system begins to develop off the coast of Oregon late this afternoon. Onshore gradients have developed, with +0.7mb from Newport to Salem, and +1.4mb from Salem to Redmond. Favorable conditions for open burning still appear likely, though arrested development indicate a shorter window during the late afternoon hours. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies throughout the day. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently ~3500 feet and increasing to 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 22nd: High 71?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern across western Oregon and the Pacific Northwest at large will become increasingly unsettled for Thursday and Friday. The upper-level trough near the Oregon coast will slowly approach our area, making the atmosphere unstable. A surface frontal system will stretch out Thursday and produce favorable onshore flow with lift, while rainfall is directed further north into Washington. This suggests a dry Cold Front passing through, and bringing in marine air behind it for Friday afternoon. Convection could still occur beneath the upper-level trough, creating problematic gusty winds and conditions that favor down-mixing of smoke emissions. The upper-level trough will weaken and split as it near the Oregon coast Friday evening, with fragments of energy pushed into both northern Washington and back out to sea in the Pacific. An area of higher pressure over Nevada will keep skies mostly clear over Oregon. This will promote light offshore flow as temperatures climb just above seasonal averages for the last weekend of September. The "lost" upper-level trough out over the Pacific will have regained strength by Monday afternoon as it heads due east towards California. A potential storm system at the surface from this feature provides concern through mid-week, as historical evidence shows "Sou'westers" often produce offshore flow and isolated thundershowers for western Oregon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 37376 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 24 08:24:29 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2015 15:24:29 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU SEP 24, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is off the coast of Oregon, and will remain out to sea today as it weakens. Southwesterly flow is present through all levels of the atmosphere, with a weak disturbance over southwestern Oregon creating cloudy skies today. Mixing heights will rise slowly with limited improvement today. Gradients will start out flat, with weak onshore flow developing late this afternoon as winds become more westerly. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy skies with occasional sunbreaks. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 74?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S-SW 5-10 mph this morning; S-SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and increasing to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:06 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 23rd: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern will become unstable Friday, as the upper-level trough splits apart and shifts into Washington before sunrise. At the surface, a weak frontal system will bring mostly clouds to the Silverton Hills. Onshore flow will build as mixing is enhanced throughout the day. No rainfall is forecast to impact the Silverton Hills. Open burning opportunities may be limited due to the possibility of smoke emissions down-mixing. Mild weather sets in for the weekend, as Oregon comes under the influence of an upper-level ridge from Nevada. Skies will clear out, and weak offshore flow will develop, bringing drier air into the Willamette Valley from east of the Cascades. Temperatures will begin to sink down below seasonal averages, with no rainfall projected across the region. An upper-level trough will approach the coast of southern Oregon early next week. A surface frontal system associated with this feature will bring unsettled weather for mid-week, and is highly dependent upon the storm's track. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 24 11:33:58 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2015 18:33:58 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU SEP 24, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is off the coast of Oregon, and will remain out to sea today as it weakens. Southwesterly flow is present through all levels of the atmosphere, and morning clouds are exiting to the northeast. Mixing heights will rise slowly with limited improvement today. Gradients are still neutral, with +0.7mb onshore Newport to Salem being counteracted by -0.9mb offshore Redmond to Salem. Slower development towards complete onshore flow over the Silverton Hills indicates a late afternoon for potential open burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy skies becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 74?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S-SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently near 2000 feet, rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and increasing to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:06 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 23rd: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern will become unstable Friday, as the upper-level trough splits apart and shifts into Washington before sunrise. At the surface, a weak frontal system will bring mostly clouds to the Silverton Hills. Onshore flow will build as mixing is enhanced throughout the day. No rainfall is forecast to impact the Silverton Hills. Open burning opportunities may be limited due to the possibility of smoke emissions down-mixing. Mild weather sets in for the weekend, as Oregon comes under the influence of an upper-level ridge from Nevada. Skies will clear out, and weak offshore flow will develop, bringing drier air into the Willamette Valley from east of the Cascades. Temperatures will begin to sink down below seasonal averages, with no rainfall projected across the region. An upper-level trough will approach the coast of southern Oregon early next week. A surface frontal system associated with this feature will bring unsettled weather for mid-week, and is highly dependent upon the storm's track. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 25 08:25:35 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2015 15:25:35 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 25, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is moving into western Washington, making the atmosphere unstable. A weak surface front associated with this feature is bringing isolated showers to the western side of the Willamette Valley. Clouds are moving north-by-northeast, so rains are not likely to impact the Silverton Hills today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy skies with isolated showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 69?F (average is 74?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 60% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Variable 5-10 mph; N 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S-SW 10-15 mph this morning; W-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently 3000 feet and increasing to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:04 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 24th: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Mild weather sets in for the weekend, as Oregon comes under the influence of an upper-level ridge from Nevada. Skies will clear out, and weak offshore flow will develop, bringing drier air into the Willamette Valley from east of the Cascades. Temperatures will begin to sink down below seasonal averages, with no rainfall projected across the region. An upper-level trough will approach the coast of southern Oregon early next week. A surface frontal system associated with this feature will bring cloudy skies and scattered showers mid-week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 25 11:36:25 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2015 18:36:25 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI SEP 25, 2015 ***This will be the final forecast for the 2015 Field Burning Season*** BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough is moving into western Washington, making the atmosphere unstable. A persistent surface front associated with this feature is bringing isolated showers to across the Willamette Valley. Onshore gradients have developed as the front has moved over the Silverton Hills. Shower activity is more robust than expected, producing wetting rains across much of the Willamette Valley. The front should exit into the Cascades later this afternoon, ending showers before sunset. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy skies with scattered showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 69?F (average is 74?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 60% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: W-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Currently 3000 feet and increasing to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:04 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 24th: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") ***0.09 inches of rain have fallen in Salem since sunrise today.*** (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Mild weather sets in for the weekend, as Oregon comes under the influence of an upper-level ridge from Nevada. Skies will clear out, and weak offshore flow will develop, bringing drier air into the Willamette Valley from east of the Cascades. Temperatures will begin to sink down below seasonal averages, with no rainfall projected across the region. An upper-level trough will approach the coast of southern Oregon early next week. A surface frontal system associated with this feature will bring cloudy skies and scattered showers mid-week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 28 08:54:41 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2015 15:54:41 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON SEP 28, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions may be reached this afternoon due to low humidity and wind*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, well off the California coast, is producing a warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. At the surface, very dry offshore flow produced State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions Sunday afternoon across the Willamette Valley and may do so again this afternoon. In addition, warm air aloft will keep mixing heights at or below 3000 feet today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 73?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 30% by 2 p.m. and to near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; N 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10 mph this morning; NNE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet by noon and to 3000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 27th: High 72?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough off the California coast will slowly advance towards the Oregon coast Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface thermal trough is expected to push east of the Cascades Tuesday afternoon with low-level winds turning southwesterly and possibly creating a late-day burning opportunity. Further cooling aloft and increasing southwesterly transport winds should allow for the burning of any remaining fields Wednesday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 28 11:20:53 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2015 18:20:53 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:20 AM PDT MON SEP 28, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: ***State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions may be reached this afternoon due to low humidity and wind*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry and weak southwesterly flow aloft is spreading some high cloudiness across western Oregon today. Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights at or below 3000 feet this afternoon with continued dry offshore transport winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 73?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 30% by 2 p.m. and to near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-15 mph. Transport winds: NNE 5-15 mph. Mixing height: Near 2000 feet at midday; rising to only 3000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 27th: High 72?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough off the California coast will slowly advance towards Oregon Tuesday and Wednesday. A surface thermal trough is expected to push east of the Cascades Tuesday afternoon with low-level winds turning southwesterly and possibly creating a late-day burning opportunity. Further cooling aloft and increasing southwesterly transport winds should allow for the burning of any remaining fields Wednesday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 29 08:52:38 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2015 15:52:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE SEP 29, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 3 p.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft is increasing ahead of a slow-moving upper-level trough. Skies are clear across the interior of western Oregon this morning. A surface thermal trough is beginning to shift from the coast into the interior of western Oregon. In response to this shift, low clouds are advancing northward along the southern and central coast and should make it to the north coast later this afternoon. The thermal trough is expected to shift over the Willamette Valley today, which will result into light and variable winds and warm temperatures. If the thermal trough shifts far enough east, gradients may turn onshore late this afternoon. That would turn transport winds southwesterly and could allow for the burning of remaining fields. However, warm air aloft will keep mixing heights from getting much above 3000 feet. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 72?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 45% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Var 2-5 mph; becoming SW 3-6 mph after about 3 p.m. Transport winds: Var 3-6 mph; becoming SW 5-10 mph after about 3 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet after about 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 28th: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will slowly advance towards Oregon tonight and Wednesday, which will force the surface thermal trough east of the Cascades. Increasing onshore flow should push some marine clouds into the Willamette Valley Wednesday morning, but no precipitation is expected. Cooling aloft will improve mixing Wednesday afternoon with SW transport winds likely creating favorable conditions for the burning of any remaining fields. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 29 11:28:18 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2015 18:28:18 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT TUE SEP 29, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 3 p.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft is increasing ahead of a slow-moving upper-level trough. Skies are clear across the interior of western Oregon at midday. A surface thermal trough has shifted inland over SW Oregon and extends northwestward to the northern Oregon coast. Low clouds blanket the south coast and are advancing northward along the central coast. The north coast is clear but will see increasing clouds later this afternoon. The thermal trough is predicted to move inland over the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Expect sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures warming into the low 80s. Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights from getting much above 3000 feet. Gradients may turn onshore late this afternoon, as marine air begins seeping into the valley. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 82?F (average is 72?F). Relative humidity: Near 45% at midday; dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light; becoming SW 3-6 mph after about 3 p.m. Transport winds: Light; becoming SW 5-10 mph after about 3 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet after about 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 28th: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will slowly advance towards Oregon, which will force the surface thermal trough inland tonight and east of the Cascades on Wednesday. Increasing onshore flow should push some marine clouds into the Willamette Valley Wednesday morning, but no precipitation is expected. Cooling aloft will improve mixing Wednesday afternoon with SW transport winds likely creating favorable conditions for the burning of all remaining fields. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 30 08:25:23 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2015 15:25:23 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED SEP 30, 2015 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough is approaching Oregon this morning. Southwesterly flow aloft will improve mixing slightly, as air is cooled and begins to sink. Down at the surface, a thermal trough near the Oregon coast will be pushed east into the Cascades late this afternoon. Light onshore gradients will develop late, providing a brief window of favorable conditions for open burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies today. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73?F (average is 72?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S-SW 5-10 mph this morning; W-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and increasing to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 29th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 35) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern Thursday will undergo transition, as the upper-level trough slowly crosses into the desert southeast of Oregon. Cooling air will continue to surge in aloft, increasing mixing of the atmosphere throughout the day. At the surface, onshore gradients will steadily build throughout the day, though wind direction will become more northerly over time. An upper-level trough will dive south from the Canadian coast on Friday morning, continuing to destabilize the atmosphere. A weak low with surface frontal boundaries will develop ahead of this feature. Clouds will increase, with isolated mountain showers in the Cascades Friday afternoon. Cool, damp northwesterly flow will persist into the weekend, putting western Oregon into a typical fall weather pattern. Morning fog with drizzle will lift and break up mid-day, before reforming after sunset on Saturday. Sunday will see more extensive morning fog. Wetting rains are not expected over the Silverton Hills at this time. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 30 11:35:08 2015 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2015 18:35:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom (LAST FORECAST FOR 2015) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED SEP 30, 2015 ***This will be the final field burning forecast for the Silverton Hills in 2015.*** BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough is approaching Oregon this morning. Southwesterly flow aloft will improve mixing slightly, as air is cooled and begins to sink. Down at the surface, a thermal trough near the Oregon coast will be pushed east into the Cascades late this afternoon. Light onshore gradients will develop late, providing a brief window of favorable conditions for open burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy skies becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73?F (average is 72?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S-SW 5-10 mph becoming W-NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph becoming W-SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet by 3 p.m. and increasing to 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 29th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 35) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The weather pattern Thursday will undergo transition, as the upper-level trough slowly crosses into the desert southeast of Oregon. Cooling air will continue to surge in aloft, increasing mixing of the atmosphere throughout the day. At the surface, onshore gradients will steadily build throughout the day, though wind direction will become more northerly over time. An upper-level trough will dive south from the Canadian coast on Friday morning, continuing to destabilize the atmosphere. A weak low with surface frontal boundaries will develop ahead of this feature. Clouds will increase, with isolated mountain showers in the Cascades Friday afternoon. Cool, damp northwesterly flow will persist into the weekend, putting western Oregon into a typical fall weather pattern. Morning fog with drizzle will lift and break up mid-day, before reforming after sunset on Saturday. Sunday will see more extensive morning fog. Wetting rains are not expected over the Silverton Hills at this time. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Tom.doc URL: