From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 1 08:56:20 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2016 15:56:20 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON AUG 1, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Westerly flow aloft has produced enough onshore flow at low levels to push a layer of marine low clouds into the northern Willamette Valley this morning. Skies should clear by midday with sunshine and moderate temperatures this afternoon. An upper-level trough, advancing southward along the British Columbia coastline, will bring increasing westerly flow aloft to Oregon today. If it approaches quickly enough, it may turn transport winds enough northwesterly for a burning opportunity this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Brief morning clouds, then sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 2 p.m. to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:38 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 31st: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Precipitation from the incoming weather system will be limited and mainly impact Washington, but a few showers are possible across extreme NW Oregon, late tonight Tuesday. Temperatures will cool into the mid-70s with more extensive clouds across the Willamette Valley. Good mixing and westerly transport winds will likely be countered by unfavorable gradient stacking. A transitory ridge will bring dry and warmer conditions on Wednesday with transport winds reverting to northerly. However, another upper-level trough may turn transport winds enough northwesterly for a burning opportunity Thursday and/or Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 1 11:57:21 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2016 18:57:21 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON AUG 1, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Marine clouds, which extended southward into Marion County this morning, have mostly given way to sunshine. However, continued onshore flow will keep temperatures slightly below average today. Winds were mostly northerly late this morning. Daytime heating should balance the, slightly negatively-stacked, pressure gradients this afternoon. In addition, an approaching upper-level trough may turn transport winds northwesterly and provide a burning opportunity. PIBALS are scheduled to begin at 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Becoming NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Becoming NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 2 p.m. to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:38 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 31st: High 80?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Showers from the incoming weather system will stay mostly in Washington, but a few could make it into extreme NW Oregon on Tuesday. Temperatures will cool into the mid-70s with extensive morning clouds across the Willamette Valley. Good mixing and westerly transport winds should be favorable for burning, but unfavorable gradient stacking may be an issue. A transitory ridge will bring dry and warmer conditions on Wednesday with transport winds reverting to northerly. However, another upper-level trough may turn transport winds enough northwesterly for a burning opportunity Thursday and/or Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 2 08:51:01 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2016 15:51:01 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE AUG 2, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A very compact upper-level low pressure area will move across northern Washington today. It has forced marine low clouds inland across all of NW Oregon, with a few light showers making it as far south as the northern Oregon coast and Cascades. A stray shower can't be ruled out over the Silverton Hills today. The upper-level trough should provide excellent mixing today with onshore transport winds. However the marine push overnight has created negative pressure-gradient stacking this morning, which may not reverse enough this afternoon to allow for open burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly sunny and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: WSW 4-8 mph this morning; WNW 5-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: W 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising above 3000 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:36 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 1st: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 85) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A transitory ridge will bring dry and warmer conditions Wednesday and Thursday with transport winds turning northerly. Another mostly-dry upper-level trough will bring a cool-down on Friday, and a potential burning opportunity, as transport winds turn onshore. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 2 11:32:38 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2016 18:32:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT TUE AUG 2, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A compact upper-level low pressure area, centered over extreme NW Washington, will slowly slide eastward this afternoon. Cool air aloft will provide excelling mixing today and aid in the break-up of marine clouds covering NW Oregon. Shower activity will stay mostly in Washington but could extend southward into the northern Willamette Valley. With excellent mixing and NW transport winds expected this afternoon, the limiting factor for open burning is the negative gradient stacking left over from last night's marine push (11 a.m.: Newport-to-Salem 1.1 mb and Salem-to-Redmond 5.1 mb), which was about 4 millibars late this morning. That will be hard to overcome this afternoon. The first PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly sunny and cooler. Risk of a light shower. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: W 3-8 mph; becoming NW 7-12 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: W 5-10 mph; becoming NW 10-15 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:36 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 1st: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 85) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A transitory ridge will bring dry and warmer conditions Wednesday and Thursday with northerly transport winds. Another upper-level trough will turn transport winds onshore Friday, bringing cooler air into the region and possibly providing a burning opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 3 08:45:37 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2016 15:45:37 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED AUG 3, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper level low that caused the northwest transport winds on Tuesday is moving into Montana this morning and too far away to influence the Willamette Valley. That will allow a low level ridge offshore to strengthen north winds and warm the air at the top of the mixing layer. Transport winds will even persist at north-northeast through the afternoon. Mixing heights will still reach a decent level and pressure gradients will likely balance this afternoon. The limiting factor for burning today will be north-northeast transport winds. Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 60% by 11:00 a.m. and to 35% around 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph increasing to 12-15 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: NNE 14-18 mph, increasing 20-24 mph late in afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and above 4000 feet after 4:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:35 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 2nd: High 79?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 108) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change is expected on Thursday though the winds could possibly turn northwest in early evening. Friday has potential for the best burning conditions of the week as an upper low currently moving along the Alaska Panhandle will provide a marine push. However, timing will be critical and even slight deviations from current expectations may turn conditions unfavorable. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 3 11:47:10 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2016 18:47:10 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED AUG 3, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper level low that caused the northwest transport winds on Tuesday is moving into Montana this morning and too far away to influence the Willamette Valley. That will allow a low level ridge offshore to strengthen north winds and warm the air at the top of the mixing layer. Transport winds will persist at north-northeast through the afternoon. Mixing heights will still reach a decent level and pressure gradients are nearly balanced. The limiting factor for burning today will continue to be north-northeast transport winds. Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Falling to 32% around 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph increasing to 12-15 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: NNE 14-18 mph, increasing 20-24 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon and above 4000 feet after 4:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:35 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 2nd: High 79?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 108) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change is expected on Thursday though the winds could possibly turn northwest in early evening. Friday has potential for the best burning conditions of the week as an upper low currently moving along the Alaska Panhandle will provide a marine push. However, timing will be critical and even slight deviations from current expectations may turn conditions unfavorable. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 4 08:53:17 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 4 Aug 2016 15:53:17 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT THU AUG 4, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A thermal trough over Willamette Valley will cause very poor burning conditions today, with northerly transport winds and low mixing heights. Conditions will approach fire marshal, mainly on the relative humidity and wind. Pressure gradients also suggest that air flow would converge over the valley. Sunny and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 92?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 60% before 10:00 a.m. and below 30% around 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 9-12 mph increasing to 12-15 mph around 3:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 14-18 mph, increasing to 17-21 mph about 3:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet about 1:00 p.m. and 3500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:34 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 3rd: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 73) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper level low will be over Vancouver Island on Friday, not moving onshore until Sunday night. This will provide a marine push on Friday and possibly a good burning opportunity. Pressure gradient stacking appears to be the factor to watch. Current models indicate that transport winds will begin turning northwest just before noon and increasingly become northwest into early afternoon while mixing heights would be good. But they also show gradient stacking to be the one possible negative factor and will have to be monitored. There is a chance of showers due to the upper low on Sunday through Tuesday which could hamper burning. Once the low moves out by mid-week we will have a warming trend. Each day next week has potential burning. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 4 11:43:07 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 4 Aug 2016 18:43:07 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU AUG 4, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A thermal trough over Willamette Valley will cause very poor burning conditions today, with northerly transport winds and low mixing heights. Conditions will approach fire marshal, mainly on the relative humidity and wind. Pressure gradients also suggest that air flow would converge over the valley. Sunny and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 92?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 30% about 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 12-16 mph. Transport winds: N 14-18 mph, increasing to 17-21 mph after 3:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet about 1:00 p.m. and 3500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:34 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 3rd: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 73) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper level low will be over Vancouver Island on Friday and it is not expected to move into Washington until Sunday night. This will provide a marine push on Friday and a possible good burning opportunity. Pressure gradient stacking appears to be the factor to watch. Current models indicate that transport winds will begin turning northwest just before noon and increasingly become northwest into early afternoon while mixing heights would be good. But they also show gradient stacking to be the one possible negative factor and will have to be monitored. There is a chance of showers due to the upper low on Sunday through Tuesday which could hamper burning. Once the low moves out by mid-week we will have a warming trend. Each day next week shows some potential for burning which requires further monitoring. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 5 08:53:43 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2016 15:53:43 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI AUG 5, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low over Vancouver Island is increasing onshore flow this morning and a marine push can be expected today across Willamette Valley. Mixing heights may be slow to rise but other conditions should be favorable for burning early in the afternoon. Pressure gradient stacking is nearly balanced and this may become positive again before going negative towards late afternoon. Other possible limiting factors by late afternoon include increasing wind within the mixing layer and low relative humidity. Sunny and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Already below 60% and falling to near 35% by 3:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNW 5-10 mph becoming NW in early afternoon and increasing to 10-15 mph around 2:00 p.m. Transport winds: NNW 10-14 mph, becoming NW 16-20 mph by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 1:00 p.m. and 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 4th: High 95?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper level low will remain over Vancouver Island until moving over Washington by Sunday night. The low will be over Washington while causing a chance of light showers in the valley from Sunday night through Tuesday. Burning opportunities are possible each day next week but they will likely be better towards the latter week as a warming and drying trend occurs under a weakening trough. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 5 11:38:20 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2016 18:38:20 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:35 AM PDT FRI AUG 5, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low over Vancouver Island is increasing onshore flow and a marine push is ongoing across the valley. The mixing height is slowly rising and favorable transport winds are expected, but gradient stacking has become less favorable late this morning. This is expected to improve for potential burning but it might be difficult to overcome enough this afternoon even in strong sunshine. Sunny and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Falling to near 35% by 3:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNW 5-10 mph becoming NW in early afternoon and increasing to 10-15 mph around 2:00 p.m. Transport winds: NNW 10-14 mph, becoming NW 16-20 mph by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 1:00 p.m. and 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:32 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 4th: High 95?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper level low will remain over Vancouver Island until moving over Washington by Sunday night. The low will be over Washington while causing a chance of light showers in the valley from Sunday night through Tuesday. Burning opportunities are possible each day next week but they will likely be better towards the latter part of the week as a warming and drying trend occurs under a weakening trough. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 8 08:35:46 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2016 15:35:46 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:35 AM PDT MON AUG 8, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The weather pattern is very similar to last Tuesday, with a potent but rather compact upper-level trough centered over NW Washington. The difference, this time, is that moist and unstable air is extending further south, into NW Oregon. Radar and surface reports indicate that showers are extending southward to the northern tip of Marion County. As the upper-level trough very slowly advances eastward today, it will continue to circulate showers across extreme northern Oregon, possibly extending southward into the Silverton Hills. Daytime heating will further destabilize the air mass, leading to a chance of afternoon thundershowers. Mixing heights and transport winds will be favorable for burning today, if fields stay dry and humidity levels can drop enough. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of showers. Slight chance of afternoon thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 11 a.m. and to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 3-6 mph this morning; WNW 5-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: W 4-8 mph this morning; WNW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:28 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 7th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 85) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A slow-moving upper-level trough will progress eastward across Washington, on Tuesday, making it to the Idaho border late in the day. A drier and more stable NW flow aloft will decrease the threat of showers and bring more afternoon clearing. WNW winds and good mixing could provide a burning opportunity for dry fields. Gradient-stacking may be a limiting factor. High pressure is expected to bring dry and warmer weather Wednesday through Friday. Transport winds may stay enough northwesterly for a burning opportunity on Wednesday, before turning mostly northerly Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will warm to near average on Wednesday and to above average Thursday and Friday. A cool-down is expected over the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 8 08:43:36 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2016 15:43:36 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:35 AM PDT MON AUG 8, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The weather pattern is very similar to last Tuesday, with a potent but rather compact upper-level trough centered over NW Washington. The difference, this time, is that moist and unstable air is extending further south, into NW Oregon. Radar and surface reports indicate that showers are extending southward to the northern tip of Marion County. As the upper-level trough very slowly advances eastward today, it will continue to circulate showers across extreme northern Oregon, possibly extending southward into the Silverton Hills. Daytime heating will further destabilize the air mass, leading to a chance of afternoon thundershowers. Mixing heights and transport winds will be favorable for burning today, if fields stay dry and humidity levels can drop enough. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of showers. Slight chance of afternoon thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 11 a.m. and to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 3-6 mph this morning; WNW 5-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: W 4-8 mph this morning; WNW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:28 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 7th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 85) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A slow-moving upper-level trough will progress eastward across Washington, on Tuesday, making it to the Idaho border late in the day. A drier and more stable NW flow aloft will decrease the threat of showers and bring more afternoon clearing. WNW winds and good mixing could provide a burning opportunity for dry fields. Gradient-stacking may be a limiting factor. High pressure is expected to bring dry and warmer weather Wednesday through Friday. Transport winds may stay enough northwesterly for a burning opportunity on Wednesday, before turning mostly northerly Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will warm to near average on Wednesday and to above average Thursday and Friday. A cool-down is expected over the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 8 11:48:50 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2016 18:48:50 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON AUG 8, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An area of very light showers moved across Marion County late this morning, with mostly just trace amounts of rain reported. An upper-level trough, centered over NW Washington, will keep skies mostly cloudy this afternoon. Daytime heating will further destabilize the air mass, leading to more substantial showers and possible thundershowers. Rainfall totals could locally exceed one-tenth of an inch. Should any fields remain dry, mixing heights and transport winds may turn favorable for burning, but gradient stacking and general instability could cause smoke down-mixing and will need to be monitored. The next PIBAL is scheduled for noon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a slight chance of thundershowers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 3-6 mph; becoming WNW 5-12 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: WSW 3-6 mph; becoming WNW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to near 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:28 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 7th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A slow-moving upper-level trough will progress eastward across Washington, on Tuesday, making it to the Idaho border late in the day. A drier and more stable NW flow aloft will decrease the threat of showers and bring more afternoon clearing. WNW winds and good mixing could provide a burning opportunity for dry fields. Gradient-stacking may be a limiting factor. High pressure is expected to bring dry and warmer weather Wednesday through Friday. NW transport winds may provide a burning opportunity on Wednesday, before turning mostly northerly Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will warm to near average on Wednesday and to above average Thursday and Friday. A dry marine push is expected to bring a cool-down this weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 9 08:09:25 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 9 Aug 2016 15:09:25 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:10 AM PDT TUE AUG 9, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. until 6:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, centered over Washington, circulated showers across northern Oregon on Monday. One cluster of showers dumped from one-tenth to two-tenths of an inch of rain across much of Marion and extreme northern Linn counties Monday afternoon. Dampness of fields will be a limiting factor for burning today. The upper-level trough is centered over SE Washington this morning and will continue to slowly progress eastward today. A drier and more stable NW flow aloft will greatly decrease the threat of showers today with more afternoon clearing. WNW transport winds and good mixing could provide a burning opportunity for dry fields. Gradient-stacking may also be a limiting factor. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Warmer and drier than yesterday but still cooler than average. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 2 p.m. and to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 3-6 mph; becoming W 5-10 late this afternoon. Transport winds: W 5 mph; becoming WNW 10 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:26 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 8th: High 68?F; Rainfall: .17") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: High pressure is expected to bring dry and warmer weather Wednesday through Friday. Transport winds will turn northerly on Wednesday and NNE Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will warm to near average on Wednesday and to about 10 degrees above average by Friday. A dry marine push is expected to bring a cool-down this weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 9 11:27:37 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 9 Aug 2016 18:27:37 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:25 AM PDT TUE AUG 9, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. until 6:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough was centered over SE Washington late this morning and will continue to slowly progress eastward today. In its wake, a thick layer of marine clouds covers NW Oregon with areas of light drizzle. Pressure gradients are becoming increasing unfavorable, as sunshine warms central Oregon and NW Oregon stays under the marine clouds. Even with some partial afternoon clearing, gradient-stacking will continue to be an issue today. In addition, high humidity levels will inhibit the drying of damp fields. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy with areas of drizzle. Partial late-afternoon clearing. Temperatures staying much cooler than average with high relative humidity levels. Salem's high temperature today will be near 70?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 65% around 2 p.m. and to near 50% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: W 5-10. Transport winds: WNW 10 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 2 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:26 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 8th: High 68?F; Rainfall: .17") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: High pressure is expected to bring progressively warmer weather Wednesday through Friday with temperatures climbing into the 90s by Friday. Transport winds will turn northerly on Wednesday and NNE Thursday and Friday. A weak marine push is expected to return temperatures to near average this weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 10 08:54:08 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2016 15:54:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED AUG 10, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level trough centered over NW Montana extends a trough back into E Oregon, which leaves the valley under northerly flow that extends well above the mixing layer. Mixing heights will initially rise nicely this morning and pressure gradients are not bad so far, but they will likely deteriorate into the afternoon. Wet fields may also be an issue though all rainfall reports over the past 24 hours were less than a tenth of an inch. Persistent northerly wind and unfavorable gradients appear to be the primary limiting factors for burning today. Sunny and a little warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 60% about noon and near 45% by 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 6-10 mph. Transport winds: N 14-18 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 11:00 a.m. and 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:25 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 9th: High 73?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 72) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A low level ridge from the Pacific will build NE into British Columbia over the next couple of days. The ridge will cause low level flow to turn slightly offshore, warming the valley well into the 80s on Thursday and then 90s by Friday. It will also turn the transport winds NNE on Thursday and again on Friday. A weak marine push is expected to return temperatures to near average this weekend which should persist into next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 10 11:42:22 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2016 18:42:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT WED AUG 10, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed now until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level trough extends from N Montana into E Oregon, which leaves the valley under northerly flow that extends well above the mixing layer. Mixing heights are good but pressure gradients are becoming more negative, and wet fields remain an issue. Persistent northerly wind and unfavorable gradients remain the primary limiting factors for burning today. Becoming sunny by mid-afternoon and a little warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 60% about noon and near 45% by 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 6-10 mph. Transport winds: N 14-18 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:25 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 9th: High 73?F; Rainfall: .07") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 72) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A low level ridge from the Pacific will build NE into British Columbia over the next couple of days. The ridge will cause low level flow to turn slightly offshore, warming the valley well into the 80s on Thursday and then 90s by Friday. It will also turn the transport winds NNE on Thursday and again on Friday. A weak marine push is expected to return temperatures to near average this weekend which should persist into next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 11 08:57:26 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 15:57:26 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT THU AUG 11, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge building offshore will increasingly dominate Oregon weather today as a low level thermal ridge moves over the valley. Gradient stacking is expected to balance this afternoon but winds will remain northerly, or even slightly northeast. With the warm aloft the mixing heights will also be rather slow to rise. The primary limiting factor today is the north winds. Sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Falling to 45% by 2:00 p.m. and 33% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N 12-16 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 10th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 56) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The thermal ridge will persist on Friday and most of Saturday with north or northeast winds and limited mixing heights, and burning chances on Friday look slim. A marine push will cool the valley by Sunday but the ridge will gradually build again during the coming week. No rain is expected in the next week and the burning opportunities will probably be slightly better early in the week before the ridge builds again. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 11 11:34:59 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 18:34:59 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:35 AM PDT THU AUG 11, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge building offshore will increasingly dominate Oregon weather today as a low level thermal trough moves over the valley. Gradient stacking has become positive but winds will remain northerly, and may even become slightly northeast. With the warming aloft the mixing heights will also be rather slow to rise. The primary limiting factor for burning today is the north winds. Sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Falling to 45% by 2:00 p.m. and 33% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N 12-16 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 10th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 56) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The thermal trough will persist on Friday and most of Saturday with north or northeast winds and limited mixing heights, and burning chances on Friday look slim. A marine push will cool the valley by Sunday but the upper ridge will gradually build again during the coming week. No rain is expected in the next week and the burning opportunities will probably be slightly better early in the week before the ridge builds again. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 12 09:08:45 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2016 16:08:45 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT FRI AUG 12, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge is just offshore this morning while a thermal trough is sitting over the valley. This will cause hot and dry conditions today and with only light breezes. Mixing heights will also be slow to rise today due to such warm air aloft. Fire marshal conditions are likely to begin about 3:00 p.m. as the temperature and relative humidity reach critical thresholds. Pressure gradients also indicate that winds will be converging into the valley. The main limiting factor for burning are fire marshal conditions by mid-afternoon. Sunny and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 97?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Falling to 50% by 11:00 a.m. and below 30% about 3:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 4-8 mph. Transport winds: N 6-9 mph turning NNW around 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 3:00 p.m. and 3500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:22 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 11th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 31) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak marine push will arrive by Saturday evening and cool the valley down into early next week. Models suggest that the best burning opportunity of next week may be Monday as a northwest transport wind may develop in the afternoon. The upper ridge looks to build again through the week with possible northeast winds developing again. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 12 11:31:47 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2016 18:31:47 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT FRI AUG 12, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge is just offshore this morning while a thermal trough sits over the valley. This will cause hot and dry conditions today and with only light breezes. Mixing heights will also be slow to rise today due to such warm air aloft. Fire marshal conditions are likely to begin about 3:00 p.m. as the temperature and relative humidity reach critical thresholds. Pressure gradients also indicate that winds will be converging over the valley. The main limiting factor for burning is fire marshal conditions by mid-afternoon. Sunny and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 97?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 30% about 3:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 4-8 mph. Transport winds: N 6-9 mph turning NNW around 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 3:00 p.m. and 3500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:22 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 11th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 31) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak marine push will arrive by Saturday evening and cool the valley down into early next week. Models suggest that the best burning opportunity of next week may be Monday as a northwest transport wind may develop in the afternoon. The upper ridge looks to build again through the week with possible northeast winds developing again. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 15 08:44:45 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2016 15:44:45 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON AUG 15, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Minor upper level ridge lies over the state today. A weak infiltration of air moved into the Willamette Valley yesterday evening. This has brought marine clouds along the coast this morning and into the Coast Range. However, skies remain clear in the valley. Air mass is stable this morning but will destabilize this afternoon with a full day of sunshine and very warm temperatures. Gradients are positively stacked this morning with +1.4 from Newport to Salem and a +1.2 from Salem to Redmond. Gradients should remain near even or positively stacked throughout the day. Transport winds are northerly at 8 - 15 mph with surface winds variable but favoring northerly flow. Expect little wind change today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent by 10 a.m. and reach a low near 25 - 30 percent around 5 p.m. Surface winds: N at 5 - 12 mph this morning increasing to N at 7 - 15 mph by early afternoon. Transport winds: N at 8 - 18 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 ft by 11 a.m., rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:17 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 14: High 94?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge will remain flat through early Wednesday when it will likely build over the eastern Pacific Thursday and Friday. This will mean continued clear skies, very warm temperatures and northerly winds. As the ridge builds on Thursday the thermal trough will move up the coast and turn wind flow offshore and warm temperatures further, likely into the upper 90s. Given these conditions burn opportunities appear minimal this week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 15 11:43:19 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2016 18:43:19 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT MON AUG 15, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Minor upper level ridge lies over the state today. Marine low clouds along the coast are burning off leaving the entire state cloud-free. Air mass is destabilizing due to full sunshine and rapidly warming temperatures. Expect good mixing this afternoon. Pressure gradients are evenly stacked this morning with +1.5 mb from Newport to Salem and +1.6 mb from Salem to Redmond. Gradients should remain near even or positively stacked throughout the day. Transport winds are northerly at 8 - 15 mph with surface winds northerly at 5 - 10 mph. Expect little change in wind direction except possibly turning NW'erly during the evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Will reach a low near 30 percent around 5 p.m. Surface winds: N at 7 - 15 mph. Transport winds: N at 8 - 18 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:17 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 14: High 94?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge will remain flat through early Wednesday then it will build over the eastern Pacific Thursday and Friday. Expect continued clear skies, very warm temperatures and northerly winds. As the ridge builds on Thursday the thermal trough will move up the coast, turn wind flow offshore and warm temperatures further, likely into the upper 90s. Given these conditions burn opportunities appear minimal this week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 16 08:53:55 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2016 15:53:55 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE AUG 16, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A low level ridge due west of Oregon will maintain dry and N winds today. Mixing heights will be fair and pressure gradients will likely be positive in the afternoon. However the N winds extend through a deeper layer today and are unlikely to develop any westerly component until evening, if at all. Sunny and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 60% by 11:00 a.m. and near 30% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph increasing to 12-16 mph around 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 8-12 mph increasing to 12-16 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:16 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 15th: High 90?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 64) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: There is a chance late on Wednesday afternoon that the transport winds could turn NNW for a burning opportunity but NE winds will dominate by Thursday and Friday. The ridge west of Oregon will intensify and move slightly more northward which will cause hot and dry conditions, NE winds and with relatively low mixing heights for Thursday and Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 16 11:48:37 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2016 18:48:37 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE AUG 16, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A low level ridge due west of Oregon will maintain dry and N winds today. Mixing heights will be fair and pressure gradients will likely be positive in the afternoon. However the N winds extend through a deeper layer today and are unlikely to develop any westerly component until evening, if at all. Sunny and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 88?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 40% by 2:00 p.m. and near 30% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph increasing to 12-16 mph around 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 8-12 mph increasing to 12-16 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:16 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 15th: High 90?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 64) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: There is a chance late on Wednesday afternoon that the transport winds could turn NNW for a burning opportunity but NE winds will dominate by Thursday and Friday. The ridge west of Oregon will intensify and move slightly more northward which will cause hot and dry conditions, NE winds and with relatively low mixing heights for Thursday and Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 17 08:55:45 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2016 15:55:45 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED AUG 17, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Marine air will keep seasonal weather in the valley today. Pressure gradients are currently negatively stacked but will likely balance this afternoon while winds may turn NNW for a possible burn opportunity. Mixing heights will also become adequate. These factors will require monitoring and the most uncertain of them appears to be the wind. Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Already below 60% and falling to near 30% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 6-10 mph becoming NNW 8-12 mph after 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph becoming NNW around 2:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet about noon and 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. then 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:14 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 16th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Transport winds will turn NE tonight and continue at least through Saturday. Fire marshal conditions are highly likely on Thursday and Friday as temperatures and relative humidity will easily reach criteria by early in the afternoon on both days. A marine push will arrive on Sunday which will return temperatures to near normal through the middle of next week with possible burn opportunities, and still no rain is expected. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 17 11:58:01 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2016 18:58:01 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED AUG 17, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Marine air will keep seasonal weather in the valley today. Pressure gradients are currently negatively stacked but will likely balance this afternoon while winds may turn NNW for a possible burn opportunity. Mixing heights will also become adequate. These factors will require monitoring and the most uncertain of them appears to be the wind. Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Falling to near 30% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 6-10 mph becoming NNW 8-12 mph after 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph becoming NNW around 2:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. then 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:14 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 16th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Transport winds will turn NE tonight and continue at least through Saturday. Fire marshal conditions are highly likely on Thursday and Friday as temperatures and relative humidity will easily reach criteria by early in the afternoon on both days. A marine push will arrive on Sunday which will return temperatures to near normal through the middle of next week with possible burn opportunities, and still no rain is expected. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 18 08:40:42 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2016 15:40:42 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT THU AUG 18, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A hot thermal trough is camped out over the valley to the coast for no burning opportunity today. Pressure gradients indicate that transport winds will converge into the valley while mixing heights will be very low today. In addition, fire marshal conditions are expected beginning about 2:00 p.m. Sunny and very hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 103?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Near 50% by 11:00 a.m. and falling below 30% after 2:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-6 mph increasing to 8-12 mph in the afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph increasing and becoming NNE 18-23 mph late in afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 2500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:12 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 17th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 57) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Fire marshal conditions are again highly likely for Friday and Saturday. The thermal trough will remain over the valley until a marine push arrives, mainly on Sunday. The outlook for burning early next week currently looks rather slim due to north transport winds. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 18 11:45:23 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2016 18:45:23 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT THU AUG 18, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A hot thermal trough is camped out over the valley to the coast for no burning opportunity today. Pressure gradients indicate that transport winds will converge into the valley while mixing heights will be very low today. In addition, fire marshal conditions are expected beginning about 2:00 p.m. Sunny and very hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 103?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 30% after 2:00 p.m. to about 20% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph increasing and becoming NNE 18-23 mph late in afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 2500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:12 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 17th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 57) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Fire marshal conditions are again highly likely for Friday and Saturday. The thermal trough will remain over the valley until a marine push arrives, mainly on Sunday. The outlook for burning early next week currently looks rather slim due to north transport winds. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 19 08:48:03 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2016 15:48:03 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 19, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A hot thermal trough continues over the valley and the Oregon coast with no burning opportunity again today. Fire marshal conditions will be reached about noon today and will continue well into the evening. Pressure gradients are highly negative and little change is expected, while winds will be NNE in the valley. Sunny and very hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 107?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 30% by 11:00 a.m. and under 15% around 3:00 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable becoming NNE 10-15 mph by noon. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet about 11:00 a.m. and 2500 feet by 2:00 p.m. then 5000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:11 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 18th: High 102?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Fire marshal conditions will occur again on Saturday and then a marine push will cool the valley on Saturday night and Sunday. The outlook for burning early next week continues looks rather slim due to N or NNE transport winds. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 19 11:48:42 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2016 18:48:42 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 19, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A hot thermal trough continues over the valley and the Oregon coast with no burning opportunity again today. Through much of the valley fire marshal conditions have already been reached on the temperature and relative humidity. These conditions will quickly become more widespread in the next couple of hours and continue well into evening. Pressure gradients are highly negative and little change is expected, while winds will be NNE in the valley. Sunny and very hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 107?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 20% about 1:00 p.m. and to around 12% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 10-15 mph. Transport winds: NNE 12-16 mph. Mixing height: Rising 2500 feet by 2:00 p.m. then 5000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:11 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 18th: High 102?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Fire marshal conditions will occur again on Saturday and then a marine push will cool the valley on Saturday night and Sunday. The outlook for burning next week looks rather slim each day. N or NNE transport winds can be expected on Monday through Wednesday. For Thursday and Friday they will likely turn NE, possibly causing hot and dry conditions again. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 22 08:39:33 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 15:39:33 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:35 AM PDT MON AUG 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry marine push over the weekend brought an end to the recent heat-wave. Temperatures will be close to average today under sunny skies. Cool air aloft will provide excelling mixing, but negatively-stacked gradients and developing NNE transport winds will be unfavorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, mild, and a little breezy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% around 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-13 mph this morning; NNE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:06 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 21st: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The outlook for burning this week is bleak. A building upper-level ridge, centered in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, will produce a dry northerly flow aloft over Oregon with increasing offshore transport winds and warming temperatures. Valley highs should climb back into the 90s Wednesday through Friday with State Fire Marshal Conditions possible. There is a chance of a marine push Friday afternoon, but that is likely to hold off until Saturday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 22 08:42:23 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 15:42:23 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:35 AM PDT MON AUG 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry marine push over the weekend brought an end to the recent heat-wave. Temperatures will be close to average today under sunny skies. Cool air aloft will provide excelling mixing, but negatively-stacked gradients and developing NNE transport winds will be unfavorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, mild, and a little breezy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% around 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-13 mph this morning; NNE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:06 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 21st: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The outlook for burning this week is bleak. A building upper-level ridge, centered in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, will produce a dry northerly flow aloft over Oregon with increasing offshore transport winds and warming temperatures. Valley highs should climb back into the 90s Wednesday through Friday with State Fire Marshal Conditions possible. There is a chance of a marine push Friday afternoon, but that is likely to hold off until Saturday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 22 11:54:43 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 18:54:43 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON AUG 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, cutting across southern British Columbia, forced a dry cold front across Oregon on Sunday. That brought an end to record-breaking warm temperatures across western Oregon. Even with sunny skies, temperatures will struggle to reach 80?F today. However, gusty north to NE winds and lowering humidity could push sections of the Willamette Valley into State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions late this afternoon. A 1 p.m. PIBAL is scheduled to verify the predicted NNE transport winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and breezy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: North to NNE 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Transport winds: NNE 15-20 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:06 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 21st: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The outlook for burning this week is bleak. A building upper-level ridge, centered in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, will produce a dry northerly flow aloft over Oregon with increasing offshore transport winds and warming temperatures. Valley highs should climb back into the 90s Wednesday through Friday. State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions are possible in the afternoons. Another dry cold front will likely bring cooling this weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 23 08:56:32 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 15:56:32 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE AUG 23, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge, in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, is bringing a dry NW flow aloft to Oregon. At the surface, pressure gradients have weakened and turning mostly northerly, with a developing offshore component. The air mass is slowly warming, so valley highs today will climb back into the 80s. Warming aloft will suppress daytime mixing. State Fire Marshal Conditions may be reached late this afternoon, based on wind and humidity. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Not as windy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% around 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; N 5-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; NNE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:04 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 22nd: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The flow aloft will veer to northerly and eventually northeasterly later this week. A building thermal through along the coast will turn transport winds offshore and allow valley temperatures to climb back into the 90s. State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions are possible in the afternoons. A dry cold front will drop temperatures into the upper-70s this weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 23 11:54:31 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 18:54:31 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT TUE AUG 23, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is building into the eastern Gulf of Alaska and bringing a dry NW flow aloft to Oregon. At the surface, northerly pressure gradients have weakened and will become increasingly offshore, maintaining a very dry air mass across the region today. Temperatures will only warm into the mid-80s, but portions of the valley will be flirting with State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions, late this afternoon, based on wind and humidity. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Not as windy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-12 mph. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:04 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 22nd: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: As the flow aloft veers from NW to NE, later this week, a building coastal thermal through will turn transport winds increasingly offshore. Valley temperatures will climb back into the 90s. State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban Conditions are possible in the afternoons. A dry cold front is predicted to turn transport winds onshore and drop temperatures back into the upper-70s this weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 24 08:52:48 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 15:52:48 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED AUG 24, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A thermal trough is shifting westward and will reach Willamette valley this afternoon and remove any burn opportunity. Pressure gradients are already indicating that wind flow would converge over the valley and transport winds will be NNE. In addition, State Fire Marshal conditions are expected today beginning in mid-afternoon. Sunny, hot and dry. Salem's high temperature today will be near 94?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Near 40% by 11:00 a.m., falling below 30% around 1:00 p.m. and near 20% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 6-10 mph increasing this afternoon to 10-14 mph. Transport winds: NNE 13-18 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 1500 feet about 11:00 a.m. and 3000 feet near 1:00 p.m. then 6000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 23rd: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 108) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Fire marshal conditions will occur again on Thursday and Friday while transport winds will be NE. A marine push is possible late on Saturday just ahead of an upper level trough arriving from the northwest. The outlook for burning early next week looks encouraging, especially on Monday as flow continues onshore. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 24 11:50:17 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 18:50:17 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED AUG 24, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A thermal trough is shifting westward and will reach Willamette valley this afternoon, removing any burn opportunity. NNE transport winds will dominate this afternoon. In addition, State Fire Marshal conditions, mainly due to temperature and relative humidity, are expected beginning in mid-afternoon. Sunny, hot and dry. Salem's high temperature today will be near 94?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 30% around 1:00 p.m. and near 20% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 6-10 mph increasing this afternoon to 10-14 mph. Transport winds: NNE 13-18 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet near 1:00 p.m. then 6000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:02 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 23rd: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 108) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Fire marshal conditions will occur again on Thursday and Friday while transport winds will be NE. A marine push is possible late on Saturday just ahead of an upper level trough arriving from the northwest. This appears to be the beginning of a significant pattern shift for the coming week. The outlook for burning on Monday through Wednesday looks encouraging with W or SW transport winds each day. The chances of rain appear to increase towards the middle or latter part of next week but the flow will continue onshore for more possible burning. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 25 08:44:06 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016 15:44:06 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT THU AUG 25, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ABOUT NOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A thermal trough remains over Willamette Valley and to the coast. It will cause NE transport winds throughout the region and prevent any burning again today. State Fire Marshal conditions will also occur, mainly due to temperature and relative humidity but possibly also wind as it did on Wednesday. Sunny and very hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 98?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Near 30% by noon, falling below 20% about 2:00 p.m. and near 15% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 6-10 mph increasing this afternoon to 12-16 mph. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph becoming NE 14-18 mph by mid-afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 1200 feet about 11:00 a.m. and 6000 feet near 2:00 p.m. then 8000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 24th: High 94?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 144) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The thermal ridge will begin to shift eastward late on Friday and but transport winds will still be NNE and Fire Marshal conditions will occur again. A marine push is still expected late on Saturday just ahead of an upper level trough arriving from the northwest. The outlook for next Monday through Wednesday is for the upper level trough to be just offshore, nearly stationary, and intensifying into the middle part of the week. Transport winds on those days would likely be NW or W. Potential for burning still looks encouraging with the most uncertainty lying in pressure gradient stacking. The chance of showers will also increase through the week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Aug 25 11:34:32 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016 18:34:32 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT THU AUG 25, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER NOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A thermal trough remains over Willamette Valley and to the coast. It will cause NE transport winds throughout the region and prevent any burning again today. State Fire Marshal conditions will persist through at least the afternoon, mainly due to temperature and relative humidity but possibly also wind as it did on Wednesday. Sunny and very hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 98?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 20% about 2:00 p.m. and near 15% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-12 mph increasing this afternoon to 12-16 mph. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph becoming NE 14-18 mph by mid-afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 6000 feet near 2:00 p.m. then 8000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 24th: High 94?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 144) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The thermal trough will begin to shift eastward late on Friday and but transport winds will still be NNE and Fire Marshal conditions will occur again. A marine push is still expected late on Saturday just ahead of an upper level trough arriving from the northwest. The outlook for next Monday through Wednesday is for the upper level trough to be just offshore, nearly stationary, and intensifying into the middle part of the week. Transport winds on those days would likely be NW or W. Potential for burning still looks encouraging with the most uncertainty lying in pressure gradient stacking. The chance of showers will also increase through the week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 26 08:46:16 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2016 15:46:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 26, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ABOUT NOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A thermal trough is centered over Willamette Valley and will remain through today. It will cause State Fire Marshall conditions again with criteria being reached by noon in the temperature and relative humidity. However, winds will be weaker than they were on Thursday. Sunny and very hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 99?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Below 30% by 11:00 a.m., falling to near 15% by 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: NNE 9-14 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet about 1:00 p.m. then 8000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 25th: High 97?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 96) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper level trough will push a developing cold front into NW Oregon on Saturday morning. This will be the beginning of a major pattern change in the weather over the area. A marine push early that evening will reinforce cooler air arriving in the valley. The extended outlook is for an upper trough to persist just offshore and to intensify through next week. West or southwest transport winds appear likely each afternoon on Monday through Wednesday along with good mixing levels. There is a slight chance of showers beginning Monday night. Pressure gradient stacking appears to be the most questionable factor which will require monitoring. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Aug 26 11:43:46 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2016 18:43:46 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI AUG 26, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS TO BEGIN BEFORE 1:00 P.M.*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A thermal trough is centered over Willamette Valley and will remain through today. It will cause State Fire Marshall conditions again with criteria being reached between noon and 1:00 p.m. in the temperature and relative humidity. However, winds will be weaker than they were on Thursday. Sunny and very hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 99?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Already below 30% and falling to near 15% by 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: NNE 9-14 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet about 1:00 p.m. then 8000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, August 25th: High 97?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 96) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper level trough will push a developing cold front into NW Oregon on Saturday morning. This will be the beginning of a major pattern change in the weather over the area. A marine push early that evening will reinforce cooler air arriving in the valley, but little cloud cover is expected Saturday. The extended outlook is for an upper trough to persist just offshore and to intensify through next week. West or southwest transport winds appear likely each afternoon on Monday through Wednesday along with good mixing levels. There is a slight chance of showers beginning Monday night. Pressure gradient stacking appears to be the most questionable factor which will require monitoring. Models indicate that they may balance on Monday afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 29 08:57:57 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2016 15:57:57 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON AUG 29, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough in the eastern Gulf of Alaska is producing a dry SW flow aloft over Oregon. At the surface, pressure gradients have turned onshore. Marine low clouds have moved onto the entire coastline but have only penetrated into the Willamette Valley south of Marion County. The lack of morning low clouds will help to maintain favorable gradient-stacking, so the limiting factors for burning today will be wind direction and mixing heights. Winds are mostly southerly in the northern Willamette Valley this morning but should veer to the SW the afternoon. The air aloft is still fairly warm, so surface temperatures will need to approach 75?F to obtain 3000-foot mixing heights. That should occur around 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 5-10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 28th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Marine low clouds should penetrate across all of western Oregon by Tuesday morning, making gradient-stacking a limiting factor for burning. Pockets of morning drizzle are also possible. An approaching cold front may help to balance gradients in the afternoon and provide a burning opportunity. The cold front will weaken as it moves across the region on Wednesday but should bring at least a few light showers to the region, along with cooler temperatures. An upper-level trough will maintain cool weather with a chance of showers through Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Aug 29 11:52:16 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2016 18:52:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT MON AUG 29, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough in the eastern Gulf of Alaska is producing a dry SW flow aloft over Oregon. Just patchy marine clouds made it into the northern Willamette Valley this morning, so onshore pressure gradients are already favorably stacked to keep smoke plume elevated. An 11:30 a.m. PIBAL showed SSW winds through the lowest 3000 feet. The air aloft is still fairly warm, so mixing heights are currently only about 2000 feet. Surface temperatures will need to approach 75?F to obtain 3000-foot mixing heights. That should occur around 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny with near-average temperatures. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph. Transport winds: SSW 10-15 mph; veering to WSW by late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, August 28th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Marine low clouds should penetrate across all of western Oregon by early Tuesday, making gradient-stacking a limiting factor for burning. Pockets of morning drizzle are also possible. An approaching cold front may help to balance gradients in the afternoon. Should that happen, cooling aloft will make for quite high mixing heights with SW transport winds expected. A weakening cold front will likely bring a few showers on Wednesday. An upper-level trough will maintain cool and showery weather through Saturday. Rainfall totals may exceed one-quarter of an inch. Dry weather is expected Sunday and Monday with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 30 08:51:54 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2016 15:51:54 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE AUG 30, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50-acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak weather disturbance, embedded in a SSW flow aloft, will keep skies mostly cloudy today. However, lower-levels of the air mass remain fairly dry, with rainfall overnight limited to just drizzle and light showers in the central and southern coastal region. A moderate surge of marine air into the northern Willamette Valley overnight has resulted in some negative gradient-stacking this morning. That will be the primary limiting factor for open burning today, because mixing will be good this afternoon, little-to-no rain is expected, and transport winds should remain southwesterly. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around noon and to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3500 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 29th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak cold front will likely bring a few light showers on Wednesday, but rainfall totals are expected to be less than one-tenth of an inch. If fields stay dry enough, there may be a burning opportunity Thursday afternoon, ahead of an upper-level trough, which will bring more significant shower activity Thursday evening through Friday. Rainfall totals may exceed one-quarter of an inch. Dry weather is expected Saturday through Monday with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 30 08:54:06 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2016 15:54:06 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE AUG 30, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50-acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak weather disturbance, embedded in a SSW flow aloft, will keep skies mostly cloudy today. However, lower-levels of the air mass remain fairly dry, with rainfall overnight limited to just drizzle and light showers in the central and southern coastal region. A moderate surge of marine air into the northern Willamette Valley overnight has resulted in some negative gradient-stacking this morning. That will be the primary limiting factor for open burning today, because mixing will be good this afternoon, little-to-no rain is expected, and transport winds should remain southwesterly. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around noon and to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph this morning; SW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3500 feet by 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 29th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak cold front will likely bring a few light showers on Wednesday, but rainfall totals are expected to be less than one-tenth of an inch. If fields stay dry enough, there may be a burning opportunity Thursday afternoon, ahead of an upper-level trough, which will bring more significant shower activity Thursday evening through Friday. Rainfall totals may exceed one-quarter of an inch. Dry weather is expected Saturday through Monday with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Aug 30 11:40:53 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2016 18:40:53 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:35 AM PDT TUE AUG 30, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50-acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak weather disturbance, embedded in a SSW flow aloft, will keep skies mostly cloudy today. The air mass remains fairly dry, so little-to-no rainfall is expected. Unfavorably-stacked pressure gradients will likely inhibit open burning this afternoon but will be closely monitored. Mixing should be good with SSW transport winds. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Near 60% at noon and dropping to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Near 3500 feet at noon; rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, August 29th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak cold front will likely bring a few light showers on Wednesday, but rainfall totals should be less than one-tenth of an inch. If fields stay dry, burning opportunities are possible both Wednesday and Thursday. A strong upper-level trough will bring wetting showers Thursday evening through Friday with over one-quarter inch of rain likely. Dry weather is expected Saturday through Monday with temperatures recovering to near average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 31 09:12:21 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2016 16:12:21 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED AUG 31, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dissipating cold front is near the Oregon coast. Meanwhile an upper level trough will move onshore today before it redevelops offshore again on Thursday. Showers are moving through parts of Willamette Valley and are very light. They will end late this morning and no rain is expected through the afternoon. Relative humidity will be slow to drop today and mixing heights slow to rise, though both will likely reach burnable levels by late afternoon. Transport winds will turn west by late afternoon as well. Pressure gradients are currently balanced but this is questionable for this afternoon too. All of these are going to be marginal and require monitoring for potential burning conditions. Cloudy with areas of showers this morning becoming partly sunny by late afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: About 70% by noon, falling to near 60% around 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SW 8-10 mph about 2:00 p.m. and W 10-14 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SW 8-10 mph becoming W 12-15 mph by 4:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 1500 feet about 1:00 p.m. then 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 30th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Thursday still appears to provide the best remaining potential for burning this week as transport winds continue southwesterly as the upper trough gathers strength again offshore. The upper trough will finally move inland on Thursday night and cause a chance of rain again late Thursday afternoon or early evening, then continuing overnight. Rain on Thursday night and Friday morning will likely make Friday an unburnable day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Aug 31 11:55:27 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2016 18:55:27 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT WED AUG 31, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A few light showers remain near Salem but most valley locations remain dry. The showers have caused higher moisture at Salem than would be typical on fields farther east. A drying trend is expected along with partial clearing by mid-afternoon. Relative humidity will be slow to drop today and mixing heights slow to rise. Both still have a good chance of reaching burnable levels by late afternoon and transport winds will turn west by late afternoon. Pressure gradients have become slightly negative which also need to balance. All of these factors continue to be marginal and require monitoring for potential burning conditions. Showers ending and becoming partly sunny by late afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 70?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: About 75% by 1:00 p.m., falling to near 60% around 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SW 8-10 mph about 2:00 p.m. and W 10-14 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SW 8-10 mph becoming W 12-15 mph by 4:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 1500 feet about 2:00 p.m. then 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:50 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 30th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Thursday still appears to provide the best remaining potential for burning this week as transport winds continue southwesterly as the upper trough gathers strength again offshore. The upper trough will finally move inland on Thursday night and cause a chance of rain again late Thursday afternoon or early evening, then continuing overnight. Rain on Thursday night and Friday morning will likely make Friday an unburnable day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: