[willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc
Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast
willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Wed Aug 10 11:42:22 PDT 2016
SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE
11:40 AM PDT WED AUG 10, 2016
BURN ADVISORY:
Agricultural burning is not recommended.
Prep burning is allowed now until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit.
WEATHER DISCUSSION:
An upper level trough extends from N Montana into E Oregon, which leaves the valley under northerly flow that extends well above the mixing layer. Mixing heights are good but pressure gradients are becoming more negative, and wet fields remain an issue. Persistent northerly wind and unfavorable gradients remain the primary limiting factors for burning today.
Becoming sunny by mid-afternoon and a little warmer.
Salem's high temperature today will be near 78°F (average is 83°F).
Relative humidity: Falling below 60% about noon and near 45% by 4:00 p.m.
Surface winds: N 6-10 mph.
Transport winds: N 14-18 mph.
Mixing height: Rising to 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m.
Salem's sunset tonight: 8:25 p.m.
(Salem Airport data for Tuesday, August 9th: High 73°F; Rainfall: .07")
(Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 72)
EXTENDED DISCUSSION:
A low level ridge from the Pacific will build NE into British Columbia over the next couple of days. The ridge will cause low level flow to turn slightly offshore, warming the valley well into the 80s on Thursday and then 90s by Friday. It will also turn the transport winds NNE on Thursday and again on Friday. A weak marine push is expected to return temperatures to near average this weekend which should persist into next week.
The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text
Notes:
1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the
potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the
surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to
which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels,
and winds less than about 15 mph.
2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height,
weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.
3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times
the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000.
4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction.
At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local
terrain conditions.
This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department
of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For
information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.
To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to:
http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst
Gary Votaw
ODF Meteorologist
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