From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 6 08:32:53 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 6 Jul 2016 15:32:53 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:35 AM PDT WED JUL 6, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will move across the northern Rockies today with a dry and stable NW flow aloft over Oregon. Onshore flow is very weak this morning, so only patchy marine clouds have formed over the northern Willamette Valley. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures will warm to near average this afternoon. Onshore gradients should become favorably-stacked to keep smoke elevated this afternoon with cool air aloft providing excellent mixing. Northerly transport winds, this morning, may turn enough NW to provide a burning opportunity in the afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny after patchy morning clouds. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet at 11 a.m. and to 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 5th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Thursday, an approaching upper-level trough will turn the winds mostly westerly. Daytime mixing should be excellent with favorable onshore pressure-gradients for burning. Light rain is expected to move onto the north coast in the afternoon and into the Willamette Valley Thursday night. Rain will turn to showers on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves onshore. Rainfall totals may exceed one-tenth of an inch. Showery and unseasonably cool weather is expected on Saturday with a chance of a thundershower. Additional quarter-inch rain totals are possible. A few light showers will linger into Sunday. Another upper-level trough will renew the threat of showers on Monday with temperatures remaining well below average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 6 11:49:28 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 6 Jul 2016 18:49:28 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED JUL 6, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry and stable NW flow aloft is bringing only high clouds to NW Oregon today. Onshore flow is weak but has favorable gradient-stacking to keep smoke elevated. Cool air aloft will provide excellent mixing this afternoon, so the limiting factor for burning today be the strength of the onshore flow. Winds are predicted to strengthen and turn northwesterly later this afternoon, which could provide a burning opportunity. The first PIBAL of the season is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light and variable; becoming NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 3-7 mph; becoming NW 5-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet; rising to 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 5th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: On Thursday, an approaching cold front will turn transport winds mostly westerly. Daytime mixing should be excellent with favorable onshore pressure-gradients to keep smoke elevated. Clouds will be on the increase, but rain is expected to hold off until Thursday evening. A significant burning window is likely, ahead of the cold front, Thursday afternoon. Rain Thursday night will be followed by showers on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves onshore. Rainfall totals may exceed one-tenth of an inch. Showery and unseasonably cool weather is expected on Saturday with a chance of a thundershower. Additional rainfall may exceed one-quarter inch. Showers should end on Sunday with dry weather on Monday. Another cold front may present a burning opportunity Monday afternoon, if fields are dry enough. Temperatures will remain well below average through the extended period. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 7 08:49:55 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:49:55 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU JUL 7, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from noon until 700 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An unusually strong summer frontal system is approaching the Oregon and Washington coast this morning. The front itself will arrive into Willamette Valley shortly before sunrise on Friday but it will push rain into the area well in advance, as early as late this afternoon or evening. Dense clouds will limit warming today but mixing heights will still climb above 3000 feet in the afternoon. A burning opportunity is possible today, but there are several limiting factors. Minor negative gradient-stacking, high humidity levels, and the threat of rain. All of these factors will need to be monitored. In addition, low-level winds may become too strong for good plume-rise. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy with rain likely by early evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 60% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph becoming SW 5-10 in the afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon am then 4000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 6th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Rain tonight will be followed by showers on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves onshore. Rainfall totals may exceed one-quarter inch. Unseasonably cool weather is expected on Saturday with showers and possible thundershowers. Showers should taper off on Sunday with dry weather on Monday. A weak cold front will bring back a threat of light showers on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain well below average through the period. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 7 08:54:27 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:54:27 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU JUL 7, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from noon until 700 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An unusually strong summer frontal system is approaching the Oregon and Washington coast this morning. The front itself will arrive into Willamette Valley shortly before sunrise on Friday but it will push rain into the area well in advance, as early as late this afternoon or evening. Dense clouds will limit warming today but mixing heights will still climb above 3000 feet in the afternoon. A burning opportunity is possible today, but there are several limiting factors. Minor negative gradient-stacking, high humidity levels, and the threat of rain. All of these factors will need to be monitored. In addition, low-level winds may become too strong for good plume-rise. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy with rain likely by early evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 60% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-10 mph becoming SW 5-10 in the afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by noon am then 4000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 6th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Rain tonight will be followed by showers on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves onshore. Rainfall totals may exceed one-quarter inch. Unseasonably cool weather is expected on Saturday with showers and possible thundershowers. Showers should taper off on Sunday with dry weather on Monday. A weak cold front will bring back a threat of light showers on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain well below average through the period. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 7 12:02:38 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 7 Jul 2016 19:02:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT THU JUL 7, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 700 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Some showers entered the Willamette Valley late this morning though they remain spotty. Showers will remain possible through this afternoon and will become steadier rain by early this evening. An unusually strong summer frontal system is approaching the Oregon and Washington coast this morning. The front itself will arrive into Willamette Valley shortly before sunrise on Friday but it will push rain into the area well in advance. Showers will become more common into this afternoon and evening. Dense clouds will continue to limit warming but mixing heights will still climb above 4000 feet this afternoon. A PIBAL sounding is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. A burning opportunity is still possible today if the showers can hold off, but there remain several other limiting factors. Minor negative gradient-stacking persists while humidity levels remain high. In addition, low-level winds may become too strong for good plume-rise. All of these factors will require further monitoring. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy with rain likely by early evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 60% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 4000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 9:00 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 6th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Rain tonight will be followed by showers on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves onshore. Rainfall totals may exceed one-quarter inch. Unseasonably cool weather is expected on Saturday with showers and possible thundershowers. Showers should taper off on Sunday with dry weather on Monday. A weak cold front will bring back a threat of light showers on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain well below average through the period. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 8 08:53:35 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 8 Jul 2016 15:53:35 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 8, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 700 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A front passed through western Oregon early this morning and left the area wet but without showers on the immediate horizon. Clouds will limit warming much of today but mixing potential is already very deep and will remain so this afternoon. The potential for showers increases this afternoon and a thundershower is not out of the question by late afternoon and through the evening. These would be in response to an unseasonably strong upper low moving southeast towards the coast and an upper level jet moving over the area. Rainfall may exceed a quarter-inch, especially in the heavier showers. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with showers increasing by late afternoon, and a thundershower possible late. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% near 2 p.m. Surface winds: S 6-10 mph becoming SSW 10-15 mph by afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 12-15 mph increasing to 17-21 mph by late afternoon. Mixing height: At or above 5000 feet all day. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 8th: High 72?F; Rainfall: .05") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Cool weather with showers will continue Saturday and Sunday as the upper low passes over the state. Drier weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday but onshore flow will continue. This will cause clouds and continued unseasonably cool weather, and possibly light showers as a weak cold front approaches Monday night or Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 8 11:49:52 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 8 Jul 2016 18:49:52 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 8, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 700 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Widespread clouds remain over the valley at this hour though the only showers are developing on the Cascade slopes. The potential for showers will increase in the afternoon and a thundershower is not out of the question by late afternoon and through the evening. These would be in response to an unseasonably strong upper low moving southeast towards the coast and an upper level jet moving over the area. Rainfall may exceed a quarter-inch, especially in the heavier showers. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with showers increasing by late afternoon, and a thundershower possible late. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% near 2 p.m. Surface winds: SSW 6-10 mph becoming SSW 10-15 mph later in the afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 12-15 mph increasing to 17-21 mph later in the afternoon. Mixing height: At or above 5000 feet. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 8th: High 72?F; Rainfall: .05") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Cool weather with showers will continue Saturday and Sunday as the upper low passes over the state. Drier weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday but onshore flow will continue. This will cause clouds and continued unseasonably cool weather, and possibly light showers as a weak cold front approaches Monday night or Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 11 08:48:31 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2016 15:48:31 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT MON JUL 11, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An unseasonably strong upper-level trough produced approximately one-half inch of rain, since last Thursday, across the northern Willamette Valley. Damp fields will likely need some drying days, before they can be burned. A minor upper-level ridge will bring drying today with morning clouds giving way to some sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures will remain below average. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning with possible sprinkles. Clearing this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light this morning; NW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 2-5 mph this morning; W 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 4000 feet at 11 a.m. to 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 10th: High 70?F; Rainfall: .18") (Salem Airport rainfall since last Thursday: .45") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak cold front will likely bring more showers on Tuesday with rainfall totals expected to be near one-tenth of an inch. The rest of the week looks dry with just a threat of light showers returning Friday afternoon. Onshore flow will continue, but mostly sunny afternoons will help temperatures recover to near average. Good afternoon mixing and NW transport winds may provide burning opportunities for dry fields. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 11 11:42:33 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2016 18:42:33 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 11, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An unseasonably strong upper-level trough produced more than one-half inch of rain over the weekend, in the Silverton Hills, leaving fields too wet for burning today. A minor upper-level ridge will bring some clearing this afternoon, but light winds and below-average temperatures will slow down the drying process. TODAY'S FORECAST: Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-6 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: NNW 5 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 10th: High 70?F; Rainfall: .18") (Salem Airport rainfall since last Thursday: .45") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak cold front will likely bring more showers on Tuesday with rainfall totals expected to be near a tenth of an inch. The rest of the week looks dry with mostly sunny afternoons. However, temperatures will struggle to get back to near average with continued onshore flow. Good afternoon mixing and NW transport winds may provide burning opportunities for any dry fields. Another cool upper-level trough will renew the threat of showers from late Friday through this coming weekend but should not be nearly as potent as its predecessor. Rainfall totals are expected to be around one-tenth of an inch, with temperatures dropping back to about 10 degrees below average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 12 08:52:02 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2016 15:52:02 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE JUL 12, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 9:00 a.m. until 700 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Another weak front is just offshore and spreading some showers across the northern coastal range. The front will move onshore and dissipate further but mostly cloudy skies will continue with showers moving into the Willamette Valley. For those locations receiving rainfall most amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. The onshore flow will cause good mixing heights again today with winds gradually turning west this afternoon. Negative pressure gradient stacking this morning will likely not balance this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy with showers in the afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 73?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% at about noon. Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming W 6-10 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SW 6-10 mph becoming W 8-12 mph by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11:00 a.m. and then 4500 feet by 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 11th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 54) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The rest of this week looks dry and warmer with mostly sunny afternoons. Onshore flow will allow good mixing heights. Transport winds will be northerly most mornings but should turn northwest in afternoons. This will require monitoring for potential burn opportunities on available dry fields. Another cool upper-level trough will move into the coast towards the weekend but the potential for showers will likely hold off until at least Friday night. Rainfall totals are expected to be around one-tenth of an inch over the weekend, with temperatures dropping back to about 10 degrees below average. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 12 11:50:48 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2016 18:50:48 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT TUE JUL 12, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 700 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Skies will continue partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon and light showers will develop in Willamette Valley. For those locations receiving rainfall most amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. Mixing heights will again be good today with winds gradually turning westerly this afternoon. However, it is highly unlikely that the current negative pressure gradient stacking will balance this afternoon. This and the showers will limit burning opportunities. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to about 45% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: SW 6-10 mph becoming W 8-10 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SW 6-10 mph becoming W 10-14 mph by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 11th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The rest of this week looks dry and warmer with mostly sunny afternoons. Onshore flow will allow for good mixing heights. Transport winds will be northerly most mornings but should turn northwest in afternoons. This will require monitoring for potential burn opportunities on available dry fields. Another cool upper-level trough will move into the coast towards the weekend but the potential for showers may hold off until Sunday. That is when the trough is expected to strengthen. Rainfall totals are expected to be around one-tenth of an inch by Sunday. Warmer days are expected, particularly on Thursday with temperatures reaching the middle 80s. Daytime temperatures will drop back to about 5 degrees below average beginning on Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 13 08:52:26 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2016 15:52:26 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED JUL 13, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Air flow will be onshore aloft today but northerly within the mixing layer, causing unfavorable burning conditions. Pressure gradient stacking will likely be positive this afternoon but any winds turning towards the northwest will be late and require monitoring. However, drying conditions will be good with relative humidity dropping below 35 percent this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% at about 10:00 a.m. and to about 33% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph. Transport winds: N 10-14 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 11:00 a.m. and then 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 12th: High 73?F; Rainfall: trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 56) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper level trough will move across Oregon and Washington on Thursday and Friday. Mostly sunny afternoons and no showers are expected through Friday. Transport flow in the valley will still be northerly on Thursday, but the winds might turn northwesterly on Friday early enough for a burning opportunity. A more substantial trough will develop late Saturday and into Sunday. The chance of light showers will increase towards the end of the weekend with more of a westerly component to the wind. Rainfall potential appears to be around a tenth of an inch. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 13 11:47:04 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2016 18:47:04 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 13, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Air flow remains onshore aloft but northerly within the mixing layer, causing unfavorable burning conditions. Pressure gradient stacking will likely be positive this afternoon but any winds turning towards the northwest will be late and require monitoring. However, drying conditions will be good with relative humidity dropping below 35 percent late this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Falling to about 33% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph. Transport winds: N 10-14 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 4500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 12th: High 73?F; Rainfall: trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 63) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper level trough will move across Oregon and Washington on Thursday and Friday. Mostly sunny afternoons and no showers are expected through Friday. Transport flow in the valley will still be northerly on Thursday, but the winds might turn northwesterly on Friday early enough for a burning opportunity. A more substantial trough will develop late Saturday and into Sunday. The chance of light showers will increase towards the end of the weekend with more of a westerly component to the wind. Rainfall potential appears to be around a tenth of an inch. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 14 08:37:08 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2016 15:37:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:35 AM PDT THU JUL 14, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough, centered over Vancouver Island, is producing a dry and stable westerly flow aloft. Some low clouds and fog have pushed onto the coastline, but just patchy clouds have advanced east of the coast range this morning. Surface pressure gradients are still northerly across the Willamette Valley but should back to the NNW later today. The air aloft is warmer than yesterday, so a full day of sunshine should push temperatures above average this afternoon. Increasing wind speeds and lowering humidity will aid in the drying of damp fields but may also put the valley into State Fire Marshal Conditions late this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Turning a bit breezy in the afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 10 mph this morning; NNW 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph this morning; NNW 15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet at 11 a.m. to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 13th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will strengthen over the region Friday with increasing onshore flow likely pushing some marine clouds into the valley in the morning. Skies should clear in the afternoon, but temperatures will drop back into the 70s. NW transport winds should provide an afternoon burning opportunity, if there is not too much negative gradient-stacking. An upper-level trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest this weekend with onshore flow keeping temperatures below average. The chance of light showers will increase later Saturday and Sunday, but rainfall totals are expected to be less than one-tenth of an inch. Very little change in the weather pattern is expected through Tuesday with continued below-average temperatures and possible showers. The second half of next week looks drier with possible burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 14 11:54:01 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2016 18:54:01 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT THU JUL 14, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough, centered over Vancouver Island, is producing a dry and stable westerly flow aloft over Oregon. Patchy morning clouds have given way to clear skies with temperatures running a couple of degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. North winds are already in the 10-15 mph range across the Willamette Valley and should further increase today...possibly turning to the NNW later in the afternoon. Onshore gradients are slightly negatively stacked but could balance this afternoon. Mixing is good, so the limiting factors for burning today are wind speed and direction. A PIBAL is scheduled for 1 p.m. Increasing wind speeds and lowering humidity will also need to be monitored to make sure that we don't reach State Fire Marshal Conditions later this afternoon. At the very least, the sunny, warm, and breezy conditions will aid in the drying of damp fields. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny, warm, and breezy. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-15 mph...possibly turning NNW later this afternoon. Transport winds: N 15-20 mph...possibly turning NNW later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 13th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough will strengthen over the region Friday with increasing onshore flow likely pushing some marine clouds into the valley in the morning. Skies should clear in the afternoon, but temperatures will drop back into the 70s. NW transport winds should provide an afternoon burning opportunity, if there is not too much negative gradient-stacking. An upper-level trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest this weekend with onshore flow keeping temperatures below average. The chance of light showers will increase later Saturday and Sunday, but rainfall totals are expected to be less than one-tenth of an inch. Very little change in the weather pattern is expected through Tuesday with continued below-average temperatures and possible showers. The second half of next week looks drier with possible burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 15 08:49:30 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 15:49:30 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 15, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level low and trough moved through early this morning bringing a minor marine push and some marine clouds over eastern Marion and Linn Counties this morning. Otherwise skies are generally clear. Marine clouds will dissipate through the morning hours. The air mass is already fairly unstable with the mixing height near 3500 ft. Mixing heights will be rising above 5000 ft this afternoon. Gradients are negatively stacked this morning with +0.8 from Newport to Salem and a +4.2 from Salem to Redmond. Transport winds are N to NNE at 8 - 15 mph with surface winds NW to N at 5 - 10 mph. Wind flow will gradually turn NW'erly this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly clear. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Will drop below 60 percent by 11 a.m. and reach a low near 40 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: N to NW at 5 - 10 mph becoming NW'erly at 7 - 15 mph by mid-afternoon. Transport winds: N to NNE at 8 - 15 mph becoming to NW to NNW at 10 - 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3500 ft rising to 4000 ft by 11 a.m. and rising above 5000 ft by mid-afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 14: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level low to the north will continue to move eastward and weaken. The larger upper level trough will dig to the south over the eastern Pacific this weekend and start moving in on Sunday. This will likely bring some shower activity to the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Current forecasts only show minor amounts at less than a tenth of an inch. The trough will be slow to move out as it turns into an upper low off the Oregon coastline. This will keep the region under mostly cloudy skies and the threat of showers into early next week. In addition, wind flow will turn SW'erly by Monday and continue through Tuesday. If rainfall is minimal and spotty, it could open a good burn opportunity for both Monday and Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 15 11:56:18 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 18:56:18 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 15, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level low continues moving eastward but is giving enough upward lift to provide some cloud cover. Clouds will gradually dissipate later today and this evening. Air mass is unstable with the mixing height near 4000 ft. Mixing heights will be rising above 5000 ft this afternoon. Gradients continue negatively stacked with +1.2 from Newport to Salem and a +4.7 from Salem to Redmond. Transport winds will gradually turn from N to NW during the afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy becoming clear later this afternoon and evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76 degrees (average is 82). Relative humidity: Will reach a low near 40 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: Varying from NW to NE becoming mostly NW'erly at 7 - 15 mph by mid-afternoon. Transport winds: Northerly at 8 - 15 mph becoming to NW to NNW at 10 - 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Near 4000 ft rising above 5000 ft by mid-afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 14: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level low to the north will continue to move eastward and weaken. The larger upper level trough will dig to the south over the eastern Pacific this weekend and start moving in on Sunday. This will likely bring some shower activity to the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Current forecasts only show minor amounts at less than a tenth of an inch. The trough will be slow to move out as it turns into an upper low off the Oregon coastline. This will keep the region under mostly cloudy skies and the threat of showers into early next week. In addition, wind flow will turn SW'erly by Monday and continue through Tuesday. If rainfall is minimal and spotty, it could open a good burn opportunity for both Monday and Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 18 08:48:51 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2016 15:48:51 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 18, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, centered just off the northern Oregon coast, is producing a cool, moist, and somewhat unstable SW flow aloft over Oregon. Onshore flow has forced a deep marine layer and a blanket of low clouds across western Oregon this morning. However, there have been no reports of precipitation across the Willamette Valley. Onshore pressure gradients are negatively stacked this morning (0.7mb from Newport to Salem and 2.1mb from Salem to Redmond) and will have a difficult time balancing this afternoon. In addition to gradient-stacking and a threat of light showers, thunderstorm development is possible over the Cascades. If pressure gradients can become favorable, and showers hold off, cool air aloft will provide excellent mixing this afternoon with SW transport winds. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning. Partial afternoon clearing. Slight chance of showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 11 a.m. and to near 50% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: SSW 3-6 mph this morning; SW 5-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SSW 5-10 mph this morning; SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet at 11 a.m. to 5000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 17th: High 73?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 85) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very little change is expected on Tuesday with continued SW flow aloft and a deep marine layer remaining across the Willamette Valley. Gradient-stacking and the chance of light showers will continue to limit the potential for burning, along with the threat of thundershowers over the Cascades. However, mixing will be excellent with SW transport winds. The offshore upper-level trough will weaken on Wednesday with the air mass warming and stabilizing enough to end the shower activity. However, the air aloft will remain cool enough for good daytime mixing. Weaker onshore flow may allow for more favorable gradient-stacking. Transport winds are also likely to weaken and veer to northwesterly. An upper-level disturbance is predicted to swing onshore Thursday, which may create a burning opportunity. However, it could also bring light showers. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 18 11:57:23 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2016 18:57:23 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON JUL 18, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, centered just off the northern Oregon coast, is producing a cool, moist, and somewhat unstable SW flow aloft over Oregon. A deep marine layer will keep skies mostly cloudy this afternoon but also allow for excellent mixing with SW transport winds. The limiting factors for burning will be gradient-stacking and potential shower development. Cool and damp weather in central Oregon this morning balanced the gradient stacking, but skies are clearing there at midday, which could reverse that trend. Daytime heating may also trigger shower development, mainly over the Cascades. A burning opportunity is possible this afternoon. Transport winds will be monitored with the first PIBAL scheduled for 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 74?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 50% by 2 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 6000 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 17th: High 73?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very little change is expected on Tuesday with continued SW flow aloft and a deep marine layer remaining across the Willamette Valley. A burning opportunity is possible, with gradient-stacking and the chance of light showers continuing to be the limiting factors. The upper-level trough will weaken on Wednesday with the air mass warming and stabilizing enough to end the shower activity. The air aloft will remain cool enough for good daytime mixing, so a burning opportunity remains possible. Onshore flow should weaken with transport winds veering to the NW. An upper-level disturbance is predicted to swing onshore Thursday, which may create a burning opportunity but also introduce a chance of light showers. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 19 08:58:22 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2016 15:58:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT TUE JUL 19, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, centered just off the northern Oregon coast continues to cause cool, moist, and somewhat unstable and SW flow aloft over Oregon. A deep marine layer will keep skies mostly cloudy this afternoon but also allow for excellent mixing with light SW transport winds turning W by late afternoon. Gradient stacking is currently balanced and may be favorable this afternoon as skies east of the Cascades clear. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% about 10:00 a.m. and around 45% by 2:00 p.m. Surface winds: SSW 3 mph increasing 6-9 mph during the afternoon then W 6-8 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SW 8-10 mph shifting to W by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3500 feet by 11:00 a.m. and then 5000 feet by 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:52 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 18th: High 76?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Conditions on Wednesday will be similar though with a little higher chance of showers. The upper level trough is expected to move across Oregon and Washington on Thursday night and Friday. Mostly cloudy skies, onshore flow and good mixing heights will persist through Friday with somewhat more sun in the afternoons. Then sunnier and warmer for the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 19 11:58:02 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2016 18:58:02 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0719p.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT TUE JUL 19, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Though there is still a good chance that pressure gradients will go positive this afternoon, weather is shaping up to more like Monday in many ways. Current showers and thunderstorms may limit sunshine east of the Cascades while clouds are also thicker than expected in the Willamette Valley. Further monitoring will be required to assess burn opportunities. An upper-level trough, centered just off the northern Oregon coast continues to cause cool, moist, and somewhat unstable and SW flow aloft over Oregon. The deep marine layer will keep skies mostly cloudy this afternoon but also allow for excellent mixing with light SW transport winds turning W by late afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to around 50% by 2:00 p.m. Surface winds: SSW 3 mph increasing 6-9 mph during the afternoon then W 6-8 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SW 8-10 mph shifting to W by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:52 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 18th: High 76?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Conditions on Wednesday will be similar though with a little higher chance of showers. The upper level trough is expected to move across Oregon and Washington on Thursday night and Friday. Mostly cloudy skies, onshore flow and good mixing heights will persist through Friday with somewhat more sun in the afternoons. Then sunnier and warmer for the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0719p.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: fbs0719p.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 20 08:57:38 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2016 15:57:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT WED JUL 20, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough continues west of the Oregon coast and enough southwest flow is keeping marine clouds out of the valley today. Strong sunshine will allow for deep mixing today. Transport winds will be very light northerly this morning. The sunshine on both sides of the Cascades should cause the pressure gradients to becoming positively stacked and turn the transport wind northwest by late in the afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 10:00 a.m. and about 33% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 2-4 mph becoming NW 6-9 mph after 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 5-9 mph shifting to NW 7-10 mph by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3400 feet by 11:00 a.m. and then 5500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 19th: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 55) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper level low about 800 miles west-southwest of Coos Bay is moving towards the state and will pass over the valley by Thursday evening. Showers are possible late afternoon and into the evening with the winds turning westerly. A burning opportunity is possible on Thursday afternoon. Sunny and dry afternoons and near seasonal temperatures are expected by Friday and through the weekend. Burning conditions may be good again on Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 20 11:57:51 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2016 18:57:51 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT WED JUL 20, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough continues west of the Oregon coast. Wind flow above the mixing layer is southwesterly but very light at lower levels within the valley. Strong sunshine on both sides of the Cascades will allow for deep mixing this afternoon and cause the pressure gradients to become positively stacked. Transport winds will turn northwesterly by late in the afternoon and conditions for burning should be good. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to around 35% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 4-8 mph becoming NW 6-10 mph around 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 5-9 mph shifting to NW 8-12 mph by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 5500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 19th: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 55) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong upper level low about 800 miles west-southwest of Coos Bay is moving towards the state and will pass over the valley by Thursday evening. Showers are possible late afternoon and into the evening with the winds turning westerly. A burning opportunity is possible on Thursday afternoon. Sunny and dry afternoons and near seasonal temperatures are expected by Friday and through the weekend. Burning conditions may be good again on Friday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 21 08:55:18 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2016 15:55:18 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU JUL 21, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An unseasonably strong upper-level trough is approaching the Oregon coast. Warm air aloft will slow down the rise of the mixing height and then a marine push will arrive in mid-afternoon. Pressure gradient stacking should be positive and showers will likely hold off until evening. The best burn potential appears to be early afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 11:00 a.m. and to near 40% by 2:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 4-7 mph becoming W 9-14 mph by 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: NW 5-8 mph shifting to W 12-16 mph by 3:00 p.m. and continuing into evening. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 1:00 p.m. and 4000 feet by 3:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:50 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 20th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: About a tenth of an inch of rainfall can be expected tonight for much of the area. Marine air will dominate the valley on Friday with essentially no burning potential. Onshore flow will weaken through the weekend and no further showers are expected. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 21 11:48:10 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2016 18:48:10 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU JUL 21, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An unseasonably strong upper-level trough is approaching the Oregon coast. Warm air aloft continues to slow down the rise of the mixing height and a marine push is still expected to arrive in mid-afternoon. Pressure gradient stacking should be positive and showers will hold off until evening. The best burn potential appears to be early afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 40% by 2:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 4-7 mph becoming W 9-14 mph by 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: NW 5-8 mph shifting to W 12-16 mph by 3:00 p.m. and continuing into evening. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 1:00 p.m. and 4000 feet by 3:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:50 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 20th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: About a tenth of an inch of rainfall can be expected tonight for much of the area. Marine air will dominate the valley on Friday with essentially no burning potential. Onshore flow will weaken through the weekend and no further showers are expected. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 22 08:52:52 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2016 15:52:52 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level trough is over Washington and Oregon and will reach Idaho by late afternoon. The trough pushed deep marine air into Willamette Valley overnight though rainfall amounts south of Portland metro were less than a tenth of an inch. These clouds will be very slow to break up today but mixing will still be good. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked and with full sunshine expected east of the Cascades they will likely remain negatively stacked through today. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by noon and as low as 43% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: SW 3-5 mph becoming NW 6-10 mph about 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: W 4-6 mph shifting to NW 9-14 mph by 4:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 10:00 a.m. and 4500 feet at 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 21th: High 84?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 63) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very weak onshore flow will persist this weekend and no rain is expected. A ridge will slowly develop over the next week and the area may become hot towards the end of the week. Mixing heights through next week will usually be shallow then good mixing and afternoon sunshine will make for potential burning opportunities, depending largely on gradient stacking. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 22 08:55:52 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2016 15:55:52 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST...CORRECTED OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level trough is over Washington and Oregon and will reach Idaho by late afternoon. The trough pushed deep marine air into Willamette Valley overnight though rainfall amounts south of Portland metro were less than a tenth of an inch. These clouds will be very slow to break up today but mixing will still be good. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked and with full sunshine expected east of the Cascades they will likely remain negatively stacked through today. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by noon and as low as 43% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: SW 3-5 mph becoming NW 6-10 mph about 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: W 4-6 mph shifting to NW 9-14 mph by 4:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 10:00 a.m. and 4500 feet at 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 21th: High 84?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 63) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very weak onshore flow will persist this weekend and no rain is expected. A ridge will slowly develop over the next week and the area may become hot towards the end of the week. Mixing heights through next week will usually be shallow then good mixing and afternoon sunshine will make for potential burning opportunities, depending largely on gradient stacking. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 22 08:59:41 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2016 15:59:41 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST...CORRECTED OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level trough is over Washington and Oregon and will reach Idaho by late afternoon. The trough pushed deep marine air into Willamette Valley overnight though rainfall amounts south of Portland metro were less than a tenth of an inch. These clouds will be very slow to break up today but mixing will still be good. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked and with full sunshine expected east of the Cascades they will likely remain negatively stacked through today. Salem's high temperature today will be near 75?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by noon and as low as 43% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: SW 3-5 mph becoming NW 6-10 mph about 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: W 4-6 mph shifting to NW 9-14 mph by 4:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 10:00 a.m. and 4500 feet at 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 21th: High 84?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 63) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very weak onshore flow will persist this weekend and no rain is expected. A ridge will slowly develop over the next week and the area may become hot towards the end of the week. Morning mixing heights through next week will usually be shallow then afternoon sunshine will improve mixing heights and potential burning opportunities, depending largely on gradient stacking. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 22 11:51:22 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2016 18:51:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0722p.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI JUL 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level trough is over Washington and Oregon and will reach Idaho by late afternoon. The trough pushed deep marine air into Willamette Valley overnight though rainfall amounts south of Portland metro were less than a tenth of an inch. These clouds continue to be very slow in breaking up today but mixing is good. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked and with full sunshine expected east of the Cascades they will likely remain negatively stacked through today. Partly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 77?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping as low as 41% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: SW 4-6 mph becoming NW 6-10 mph about 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: W 4-8 mph shifting to NW 9-14 mph by 4:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to around 5000 feet at 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:49 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 21th: High 84?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Very weak onshore flow will persist this weekend and no rain is expected. A ridge will slowly develop over the next week and the area may become hot towards the end of the week. Mixing heights through next week will usually be shallow in the mornings then sunshine will improve mixing heights and potential burning opportunities, depending largely on gradient stacking. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0722p.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29184 bytes Desc: fbs0722p.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 25 08:47:17 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2016 15:47:17 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 25, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11 a.m. until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry upper-level trough has initiated a weak marine push into western Oregon this morning. Low clouds and spotty drizzle blanket the coastline. Patchy low clouds will penetrate into the Willamette Valley this morning but should evaporate by midday. The prospects for open burning today are marginal. Onshore flow has creating minor negative gradient stacking, which should further increase this morning, before slowly balancing this afternoon. Wind speeds may also get too strong for burning this afternoon, even if the gradients become positively stacked. That said, today may be the best opportunity for open burning this week. TODAY'S FORECAST: Brief patchy morning clouds, then sunny and slightly cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 5-12 mph this morning; NW 12-18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet at 11 a.m. to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 24th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge will bring a warming trend through the week with temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 90s by Friday. Transport winds will turn mostly northerly. A cool-down is expected this weekend with a series of upper-level troughs providing better burning potential next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 25 11:55:44 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2016 18:55:44 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON JUL 25, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from now until 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry upper-level trough initiated a weak marine push into western Oregon this morning. Patchy low clouds penetrated into mainly the extreme northern and southern Willamette Valley this morning but have mostly dissipated. This afternoon appears to be the best opportunity for open burning this week. Minor negative gradient stacking will need to be reversed by daytime heating, and onshore flow will need to continue at modest intensity. The first PIBAL is scheduled for 1 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and slightly cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph. Transport winds: NW 10-18 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 24th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge will bring a warming trend through the week with temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Transport winds will turn mostly northerly. A cool-down is expected this weekend with a series of upper-level troughs providing better burning potential next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 26 08:54:45 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2016 15:54:45 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT TUE JUL 26, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak westerly flow aloft continues today but surface and transport winds will be consistently from the north within the valley. The mixing height will also be slower to rise today, reaching 3000 feet only by 2:00 p.m. Negative pressure gradient stacking will turn positive this afternoon but the north winds will limit burn potential. Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% about 11:00 a.m. and to 35% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph. Transport winds: N 12-17 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and 4500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 25th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 76) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change is expected for the next several days and maximum temperatures will return to upper 80s and lower 90s for Wednesday through Friday. Burning opportunities will be limited with mostly north transport winds. Current models show that an approaching trough will push marine air back into the area on Friday night and Saturday. This marine air will improve burning potential into early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29184 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 26 11:48:47 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2016 18:48:47 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 26, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak westerly flow aloft continues today but surface and transport winds in the valley are still mostly from the north. The mixing height is still expected to reach 3000 feet about 2:00 p.m. Negative pressure gradient stacking will likely turn positive this afternoon and we must monitor conditions for the possibility of getting enough westerly component in the transport winds to have a burn opportunity. Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 35% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph. Transport winds: N 12-17 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and 4500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 25th: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 76) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change is expected for the next several days and maximum temperatures will return to upper 80s and lower 90s for Wednesday through Friday. Burning opportunities will be limited on these days with mostly north transport winds. Current models show that an approaching trough will push marine air back into the area on Friday night and Saturday. This marine air will improve burning potential into early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 27 08:56:27 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2016 15:56:27 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0727a.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED JUL 27, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A very weak upper level trough is crossing the northern Oregon coast this morning but it is causing very few clouds and having essentially no effect on the lower levels. Otherwise, we can expect very weak westerly flow aloft today and low level conditions similar to those on Tuesday. Mixing heights will again only reach 3000 feet by about 2:00 p.m. but pressure gradients will very likely balance this afternoon. The primary limiting factor for burning opportunity this afternoon will be consistent north transport winds, or even slightly east of north. State Fire Marshal conditions are possible this afternoon due to expected winds and low relative humidity. Sunny and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 10:00 a.m. and to 30% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 9-14 mph. Transport winds: N 12-17 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:44 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 26th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A ridge will build slightly northward from California on Thursday before an upper trough approaches from the northwest by Friday night. Temperatures will reach the lower 90s on Thursday and Friday and transport winds will continue northerly. The trough may approach early enough to provide enough westerly component and a burn opportunity on Friday afternoon. Another trough on Monday will push more marine air back into the valley which will deepen the mixing layer and provide better burning potential into early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0727a.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: fbs0727a.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 27 11:50:38 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2016 18:50:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 27, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Air flow aloft will be westerly but weak today and low level conditions will be similar to those on Tuesday. Mixing heights will again only reach 3000 feet by about 2:00 p.m. but pressure gradients will very likely balance this afternoon. The primary limiting factor for burning opportunity this afternoon will be consistent north transport winds, or even slightly east of north. Sunny and very warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 90?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to about 30% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 9-14 mph. Transport winds: N 12-17 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:44 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 26th: High 88?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A ridge will build slightly northward from California on Thursday before an upper trough approaches from the northwest by Friday night. Temperatures will reach the lower 90s on Thursday and Friday and transport winds will continue northerly. The trough on Friday night, and another on Monday will push marine air back into the valley which will deepen the mixing layer and provide better burning potential into early next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 28 08:50:45 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2016 15:50:45 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0728a.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU JUL 28, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A ridge will rule today and temperatures aloft are already much warmer than they were on Wednesday. Daytime heating and even stronger northerly transport winds will mix down to the surface to create hot and dry conditions. Fire marshal conditions are likely this afternoon in all categories, temperatures, relative humidity and winds. In addition the transport winds will remain northerly throughout the day. Sunny and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 11:00 a.m. and to 30% by 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 6-9 mph increasing to 12-16 mph in afternoon. Transport winds: N 15-21 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and 4500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:42 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 27th: High 92?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 94) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A trough will approach from the northwest late on Friday and models suggest winds may turn northwest by late Friday afternoon or early evening. However, they also indicate continued fire marshal conditions through the afternoon. The trough will push marine air into the valley on Friday night and another trough will reinforce the marine influence by Monday for improved burning possibilities early in the coming week. No rain is expected until at least Monday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0728a.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: fbs0728a.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 28 11:49:55 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2016 18:49:55 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU JUL 28, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The overhead ridge will continue to cause hot and dry conditions, and strong northerly transport winds within the valley. Fire marshal conditions are likely this afternoon in all categories, temperatures, relative humidity and winds. Sunny and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 27% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 9-12 mph increasing to 12-16 mph during the afternoon. Transport winds: N 15-21 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and 4500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:42 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 27th: High 92?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 94) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A trough will approach from the northwest late on Friday and models suggest that winds may turn northwest by late Friday afternoon or early evening. However, they also indicate continued fire marshal conditions through the afternoon. The trough will push marine air into the valley on Friday night and another trough will reinforce the marine influence by Monday for improved burning possibilities early in the coming week. No rain is expected until at least Monday. Favorable winds and mixing heights on Monday give that day the best chance of burning opportunities early next week though there is a chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 29 08:48:47 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2016 15:48:47 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 29, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A ridge will continue to dominate this afternoon with hot and very dry weather, with due northerly winds. Fire marshal conditions are again likely through the afternoon, particularly in the temperature and relative humidity. An upper trough approaching from the northwest will begin to make its presence felt by early evening, turning the transport winds to north-northwesterly possibly as early as 5:00 p.m. This will be the beginning of marine air arriving into the valley. Pressure gradients will be positive this afternoon but the primary limiting factor regarding burning is the fire marshal conditions. Sunny and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently already below 60% and will be below 30% before 3:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-5 mph increasing to 10-14 mph in afternoon, and then turn NNW after 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 12-17 mph, turning NNW by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:41 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 28th: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Cooler and dry weather is expected for the weekend as the trough has pushed marine air back into the valley. Another upper trough will be moving into the coast on Monday. While the entire next week looks more favorable for burning conditions Monday appears to have the most potential at this time. Winds should turn northwest during that afternoon with good mixing, and pressure gradients look favorable too. The only downside appears to be a slight chance of showers towards late afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 29 12:01:51 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2016 19:01:51 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0729p.docx Message-ID: Sorry John! SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 29, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A ridge will continue to dominate with hot and very dry weather, with due northerly winds. Fire marshal conditions are again likely through the afternoon, particularly in the temperature and relative humidity. An upper trough approaching from the northwest will begin to make its presence felt by early evening, turning the transport winds to north-northwesterly possibly as early as 5:00 p.m. This will be the beginning of marine air arriving into the valley. Pressure gradients will be positive this afternoon but the primary limiting factor regarding burning is the fire marshal conditions. Sunny and hot. Salem's high temperature today will be near 95?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 30% before 3:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 10-14 mph through the afternoon, turning NNW after 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 12-17 mph, turning NNW by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:41 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 28th: High 96?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Cooler and dry weather is expected for the weekend as the trough has pushed marine air back into the valley. Another upper trough will be moving into the coast on Monday. While the entire next week looks more favorable for burning conditions Monday appears to have the most potential at this time. Winds should turn northwest during that afternoon with good mixing, and pressure gradients look favorable too. The only downside appears to be a slight chance of showers towards late afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0729p.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: fbs0729p.htm.doc URL: