From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 1 08:52:17 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2016 15:52:17 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0901a.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU SEPT 1, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Clouds will allow cool and moist air to persist in the valley today while a trough approaches the Pacific coast. The trough will likely bring rain to the area late today. There are several potential issues that may prevent burning today and will require monitoring. One is whether we can warm up enough to raise the mixing height and lower the relative humidity enough to reach burnable levels? Are the fields dry enough to consider burning, though reports indicate that the east side of the valley received less than 0.05 inch of rain on Wednesday. Pressure gradients are not currently balanced though models suggest that there is a chance they will. All considered, the chance to burn looks fair by around 2:00 p.m. and then if the rain holds off then the chances improve. Mostly cloudy with areas of rain late in the afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 68?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: About 70% by noon, falling to near 60% about 2:00 p.m. Surface winds: S to SSW 3-6 mph. Transport winds: SW 4-7 mph becoming W late in afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. then 4000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:48 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 31st: High 70?F; Rainfall: .17") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 28) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The trough will finally move inland tonight and rain appears likely at times tonight and Friday. Conditions might be conducive for burning on Friday afternoon except that a drying day will likely be necessary. The extended outlook is for onshore flow to persist through the next work week and the primary questions each day would be rain chances and pressure gradients. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0901a.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: fbs0901a.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 1 11:48:44 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2016 18:48:44 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU SEPT 1, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Conditions have nearly improved to burnable levels though the biggest unknowns are the transport winds and mixing height. Those are likely good as well though the PIBAL at noon could confirm that. Without a radar on the Oregon coast the location of rain offshore is difficult to determine, but other satellite images suggest that rain may arrive in the valley as early as 3:00 p.m., or else it could pass just to our north. Cloudy with areas of rain in mid to late afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 70?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Near 60% currently, falling to near 55% about 2:00 p.m. Surface winds: SSW to SW 5-8 mph. Transport winds: SW 6-10 mph becoming W late in afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3000 feet at noon rising to 4500 feet at 2:00 p.m. and 5000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:48 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, August 31st: High 70?F; Rainfall: .17") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 28) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The trough will finally move inland tonight and rain appears likely at times tonight and Friday. Conditions might be conducive for burning on Friday afternoon except that a drying day will likely be necessary. The extended outlook is for onshore flow to persist through the next work week and the primary questions each day would be rain chances and pressure gradients. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 2 08:49:20 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2016 15:49:20 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT FRI SEPT 2, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level trough remains over western Oregon today and it will be very slow to move east, causing SW transport winds over the valley and becoming W in the afternoon. Rainfall reports last night across the fields ranged from 0.05 to 0.24 inches. Meanwhile, showers currently west of a Newport to Hillsboro line will move across the valley beginning late this morning and will keep some of the area rather wet. Otherwise, conditions appear excellent for burning with good mixing heights and balanced pressure gradients, though they might not be balanced in the afternoon. The primary issues for burning today are wet fields and possible showers. Mostly cloudy with showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Falling to about 60% by 1:00 p.m., to a low of 55% around 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: S to SSW 7-11 mph becoming W by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SSW 12-16 mph becoming W by mid-afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 1000 feet by 11:00 a.m. but rising to 5000 feet about 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:46 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 1st: High 69?F; Rainfall: .24") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper trough will finally move east of Oregon by late Sunday and leave Willamette Valley under northwest flow all of next week. Transport winds in the valley on Monday will likely be northerly but Tuesday through Thursday appear to have potential for burning opportunities, except there is a chance of light showers each day. Transport winds look to be west or northwest on those days. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 2 11:51:39 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2016 18:51:39 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI SEPT 2, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Showers are currently west of I-5 and moving eastward in Willamette Valley. They will be scattered across the fields through the afternoon and prevent very much drying. Transport winds are SW over the valley and will turn W by mid-afternoon. Winds and mixing heights are good for potential burning, while pressure gradients remain balanced. But there is a good chance that the gradients will turn negative with arrival of the showers. Unfavorable conditions for burning today include wet fields, showers, and probable negative gradients. Mostly cloudy with showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 80?F). Relative humidity: Near 55% at 2:00 p.m. and falling to 50% around 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: SW 8-12 mph becoming W 10-14 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SW 12-16 mph becoming W by mid-afternoon. Mixing height: Already about 5000 feet and rising to 6000 feet about 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:46 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 1st: High 69?F; Rainfall: .24") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper trough will finally move east of Oregon by late Sunday and leave Willamette Valley under northwest flow all of next week. Transport winds in the valley on Monday will likely be northerly but Tuesday through Thursday appear to have potential for burning opportunities, except there is a chance of light showers each day. Transport winds look to be west or northwest on those days. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 6 08:51:54 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2016 15:51:54 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE SEP 6, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is allowed from 11:00 a.m to 5:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Minor front moved through the region earlier this morning bringing a few hundredths to about a tenth of an inch of rain. Radar shows that most of the rain has moved east of the region. Moist W to NW flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy with a chance of a few more showers today. Humidity is not expected to go below 60 percent. Pressure gradients are evenly stacked with +.4 from Newport to Salem as well as +.4 from Salem to Redmond. Cloudy skies and scattered showers will keep fields generally wet today. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy with scattered light showers. Salem's high temperature near 67 degrees (average is 80). Relative humidity: Will drop to a low of about 60 - 65 percent around 5 p.m. Surface winds: S at 8 - 13 mph this morning becoming to S to SW at 6 - 12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: S to SW at 12 - 20 mph, gradually diminishing this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 ft by 11 a.m., rising to near 5000 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:39 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, Sep. 5: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level weather pattern remains mostly unchanged through the week with NW'erly flow aloft. Gradually an upper level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and the state later in the week. This will mean enough onshore flow to keep skies cloudy, although, not as cloudy today. A weak thermal trough will form along the coast on Friday and warm temperatures to around 80F. Wind flow will be NNW to N and bring marginal burning opportunities. A dry cold front is expected to move down from the north over the weekend, but wind flow will likely remain NW to N. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 6 11:45:53 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2016 18:45:53 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE SEP 6, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is allowed from now to 5:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Minor front moved through the region earlier this morning bringing a few hundredths to about a tenth of an inch of rain. Moist W to NW flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy with a chance of a few more showers this afternoon. Humidity is not expected to go below 60 percent. Pressure gradients are positively stacked with +1.0 from Newport to Salem and +.1 from Salem to Redmond. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy with scattered light showers. Salem's high temperature near 67 degrees (average is 80). Relative humidity: Will drop to a low of about 60 - 65 percent around 5 p.m. Surface winds: S at 12 - 18 mph, becoming S to SW at 6 - 12 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: S to SW at 12 - 20 mph, gradually diminishing this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 - 4000 ft currently, rising to near 5000 ft by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:39 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, Sep. 5: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level weather pattern remains mostly unchanged through the week with NW'erly flow aloft. Gradually an upper level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and the state later in the week. Skies will slowly clear through the week. A weak thermal trough will form along the coast on Friday and warm temperatures to around 80F. Wind flow will be NNW to N Wednesday and Thursday and bring marginal burning opportunities. Wind flow turns more offshore on Friday. A dry cold front is expected to move down from the north over the weekend shifting the wind to NW to N. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 7 08:44:44 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2016 15:44:44 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED SEPT 7, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. until 5:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Moist NW flow will cause clouds to slowly dissipate today while fields may still be wet from rain. The rain occurred early on Tuesday which averaged a quarter to a half inch on those fields. Very weak transport winds will become WNW in the afternoon but still under 10 mph. Pressure gradients are currently negatively stacked with only a chance of balancing today. Gradients and the wet fields are the primary negative factors for burning potential today. Cloudy becoming partly sunny by mid-afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 60% by 2:00 p.m., to a low of 45% around 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: WNW 4-6 mph becoming NNW 6-9 mph around 2:00 p.m. Transport winds: WNW 3-5 mph increasing to 6-10 mph in mid-afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet by 11:00 a.m. and 4000 feet about 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:37 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 6th: High 72?F; Rainfall: .11") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: No more rain is expected this week but transport winds are expected to turn N in the valley on Thursday and then weak ridging will turn it NNE on Friday. Burning conditions still look marginal over the weekend and early next week with mostly N winds though other aspects look better. We will remain dry with good mixing potential each day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 7 13:55:08 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2016 20:55:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED SEPT 7, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is allowed from 2:00 p.m. until 5:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Clouds are beginning to break up a little over the west and central part of Willamette Valley but remain extensive in the east. Relative humidity is falling slightly faster than expected and clouds will decrease through the afternoon, which will help dry the fields. Weak transport winds are becoming WNW. Pressure gradients remain negatively stacked but are edging in a positive direction; they may become balanced by mid-afternoon for a burning opportunity if dry fields can be found. Partly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Falling below 60% by noon, to a low of 40% around 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNW 5-8 mph. Transport winds: WNW 5-10 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 4500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 5000 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:37 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 6th: High 72?F; Rainfall: .11") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: No more rain is expected this week but transport winds are expected to turn N in the valley on Thursday and then weak ridging will turn it NNE on Friday. Burning conditions still look marginal over the weekend and early next week with mostly N winds though other aspects look better. We will remain dry with good mixing potential each day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 8 08:41:24 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2016 15:41:24 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT THU SEPT 8, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: NW flow aloft will continue today over the valley but with due N surface and transport winds. The air will be a little drier than it was Wednesday and the clouds will burn off sooner. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked and have a chance to balance again this afternoon. Mixing heights will again be good. The primary factor to prevent burning today is the N wind. A few clouds this morning with a sunny afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Near 55% at 11:00 a.m. dropping to a low of 32% around 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-8 mph increasing to 8-12 mph in afternoon. Transport winds: N 8-12 mph increasing to 12-15 mph during the afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 2500 feet by 11:00 a.m. and above 4000 feet after 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:35 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 7th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak ridge will cause air flow will turn offshore on Friday for a NNE transport wind. A marine push is expected late on Saturday afternoon as a trough approaches. But the models do not agree on winds becoming conducive for burning, and no cloud cover is expected. N transports are expected again Sunday. Models agree well in the outlook for the first half of next week which calls for an upper low developing over California and a ridge from the Pacific building into British Columbia. This combination will turn the wind NE again on Monday and Tuesday and possibly Wednesday too. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 8 11:49:55 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2016 18:49:55 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT THU SEPT 8, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: NW flow aloft will continue today over the valley but with due N surface and transport winds. A 2:00 p.m. PIBAL is expected to verify if this wind direction is accurate. Otherwise good drying and mixing heights are already ongoing. Pressure gradients remain negatively stacked but still may balance this afternoon. The primary factor preventing burning today would be the N wind, and possibly gradients. Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Below 50% at noon dropping to a low of 30% around 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph. Transport winds: N 8-12 mph increasing to 12-15 mph during the afternoon. Mixing height: Near 4000 feet at noon rising to 5000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:35 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 7th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak ridge will cause air flow will turn offshore on Friday for a NNE transport wind. A marine push is expected late on Saturday afternoon as a trough approaches. But the models do not agree on winds becoming conducive for burning, and no cloud cover is expected. N transports are expected again Sunday. Models agree well in the outlook for the first half of next week which calls for an upper low developing over California and a ridge from the Pacific building into British Columbia. This combination will turn the wind NE again on Monday and Tuesday and possibly Wednesday too. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 9 08:50:24 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2016 15:50:24 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI SEPT 9, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Clouds currently over the east side of Willamette Valley will dissipate mainly late this morning. A thermal trough is developing on the Cascades which will migrate westward across the valley today, causing pressure gradients to continue negatively stacked into the afternoon. Mixing layer winds have become NNE and will become stronger in afternoon though mixing heights will be good. Primary factors to prevent burning today will be the thermal trough causing NNE winds and negative stacking. Mostly cloudy becoming sunny by about noon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Below 60% by noon and dropping to around 25% by 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: N to NNE 4-8 mph increasing to 12-15 mph in the afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-14 mph increasing to 16-21 mph during the afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet by 11:00 a.m., 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and around 4500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:33 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 8th: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 94) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak marine push is expected by Saturday evening but still without clouds preceding it, then winds will be mainly northerly on Sunday. An upper trough moving south along the coast will become a low centering over Northern California on Monday. This will cause northeast transport flow on Monday and Tuesday. The last several model runs suggest that a marine push may be possible on Wednesday with a westerly component to the transport winds all day. Timing and the exact location of the upper low are much in doubt this far in advance but it does appear to be the best burning day next week. Also, no rain is expected in the coming week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 9 11:32:11 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2016 18:32:11 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT FRI SEPT 9, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A thermal trough developing on the Cascades will migrate westward across the valley today, causing pressure gradients to continue being negatively stacked. Mixing layer winds are NNE which will strengthen in the afternoon though mixing heights will be good. Primary factors to prevent burning today will be the thermal trough causing NNE winds and negative stacking. Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 79?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to around 25% by 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 9-12 mph increasing to 12-16 mph by late afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-14 mph increasing to 16-21 mph during the afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2:00 p.m. and around 4500 feet at 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:33 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 8th: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 94) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak marine push is expected by Saturday evening but still without clouds preceding it, then winds will be mainly northerly on Sunday. An upper trough moving south along the coast will become a low centering over Northern California on Monday. This will cause northeast transport flow on Monday and Tuesday, and probable negative stacking again. The last several model runs suggest that a marine push may be possible on Wednesday with a westerly component to the transport winds all day. Timing and the exact location of the upper low are much in doubt this far in advance and that would be a major factor in the marine push. Wednesday does appear to be the best burning day next week. Also, no rain is expected in the coming week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 12 08:52:00 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2016 15:52:00 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON SEP 12, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge is nosing into British Columbia this morning as this weekend's dry trough is dropping southward. This weather pattern will leave the region under northeast flow both near the surface and aloft. Expect clear skies and breezy N to NE flow today. The thermal trough is moving up the coast today and will keep pressure gradients offshore, leaving little chance for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature near 80 degrees (average is 78). Relative humidity: Will drop to near 30 percent around 4 p.m. Surface winds: N to NE at 5 - 12 mph this morning becoming to N to NE at 12 - 18 mph by late morning to early afternoon. Transport winds: NNE to NE at 15 - 22 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 ft by 11 a.m., rising to near 5000 ft by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:27 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, Sep. 11: High 76?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 110) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge remains to the north through Tuesday with the trough to the south weakening and starting to move eastward. Expect continued offshore flow, clear skies and very warm temperatures. Ridge flattens on Wednesday and allows a cooling intrusion of SW to W marine air to move in during the afternoon. This day looks to be the best of the week for burning. Ridge rebuilds Thursday and Friday with wind flow turning back to northerly. No moisture is expected anytime this week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 12 11:48:00 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2016 18:48:00 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast - Noon Update Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON SEP 12, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge is nosing into British Columbia this morning as this past weekend's dry trough is dropping southward. This weather pattern will leave the region under northeast flow both near the surface and aloft. Expect clear skies and breezy N to NE flow today. The thermal trough is moving up the coast today and will keep pressure gradients offshore, leaving little chance for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature near 80 degrees (average is 78). Relative humidity: Will drop to near 25 percent around 5 p.m. Surface winds: N to NE at 12 - 18 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Transport winds: NNE to NE at 15 - 22 mph. Mixing height: Rising above 5000 ft after 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:27 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, Sep. 11: High 76?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 125) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge remains to the north through Tuesday with the trough to the south weakening and starting to move eastward. Expect continued offshore flow, clear skies and very warm temperatures. Ridge flattens on Wednesday and allows a cooling intrusion of SW to W marine air to move in during the afternoon. This day looks to be the best of the week for burning. Ridge rebuilds Thursday and Friday with wind flow turning back to northerly. No moisture is expected anytime this week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Nick Yonker ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34304 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Nick.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 13 08:46:16 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2016 15:46:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT TUE SEPT 13, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low centered over California will move into Nevada today which will result in weakening NE winds aloft over Oregon. However, they will still be strong enough down the slopes of the Cascades to cause very dry and quite breezy conditions. The resulting thermal trough will remain over the valley today with little chance for burning. Fire marshal conditions are possible this afternoon, certainly in the relative humidity but possibly also in the wind. Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 30% around noon and below 20% about 2:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 10-14 mph by late morning increasing to 12-15 mph in the afternoon with gusts to 20 mph. Transport winds: NNE 12-15 mph becoming NE 16-20 mph by late afternoon. Mixing height: Only 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 5000 feet and above after 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:25 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 12th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 140) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper low will continue moving NE into the northern Rockies, allowing a marine push for the valley late on Wednesday. Mixing heights will still be excellent with favorable pressure gradients. Transport winds will turn NW or W during the afternoon and current models show wind speeds of only 4-8 mph. No rain is expected this week but winds will likely turn N on Thursday and Friday, limiting burning opportunity those days. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 13 08:46:17 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2016 15:46:17 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT TUE SEPT 13, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low centered over California will move into Nevada today which will result in weakening NE winds aloft over Oregon. However, they will still be strong enough down the slopes of the Cascades to cause very dry and quite breezy conditions. The resulting thermal trough will remain over the valley today with little chance for burning. Fire marshal conditions are possible this afternoon, certainly in the relative humidity but possibly also in the wind. Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 30% around noon and below 20% about 2:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 10-14 mph by late morning increasing to 12-15 mph in the afternoon with gusts to 20 mph. Transport winds: NNE 12-15 mph becoming NE 16-20 mph by late afternoon. Mixing height: Only 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 5000 feet and above after 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:25 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 12th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 140) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper low will continue moving NE into the northern Rockies, allowing a marine push for the valley late on Wednesday. Mixing heights will still be excellent with favorable pressure gradients. Transport winds will turn NW or W during the afternoon and current models show wind speeds of only 4-8 mph. No rain is expected this week but winds will likely turn N on Thursday and Friday, limiting burning opportunity those days. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 13 11:49:33 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2016 18:49:33 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE SEPT 13, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: ***STATE FIRE MARSHAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON*** Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low centered over California will move into Nevada today which will result in weakening NE winds aloft over Oregon. However, they will still be strong enough down the slopes of the Cascades to cause very dry and quite breezy conditions. The resulting thermal trough will remain over the valley today with little chance for burning. Fire marshal conditions are possible this afternoon, certainly in the relative humidity but possibly also in the wind. Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 20% about 1:00 p.m. to a low of 15% by 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 13-16 mph with gusts to 22 mph. Transport winds: NE 17-22 mph. Mixing height: Rising above 5000 feet by 2:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:25 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 12th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 140) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper low will continue moving NE into the northern Rockies, allowing a marine push for the valley late on Wednesday. Mixing heights will still be excellent with favorable pressure gradients. Transport winds will turn from SW to W or NW during the afternoon and current models show wind speeds of only 4-8 mph. No rain is expected through Friday but winds will likely turn N on Thursday and Friday, limiting burning those days. Weather models indicate a cold front approaching from the northwest on Saturday. Transport winds will increasingly be westerly during the afternoon, but the two models showing this feature differ on the speed on which it arrives. Clouds will be increasing with a slight chance of rain late. The most limiting factor for burning might be the mixing height if clouds arrive soon enough prevent sufficient warming or that rain arrives too soon, but current timing is encouraging for a burn opportunity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 14 08:41:13 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2016 15:41:13 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT WED SEPT 14, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11:00 a.m. until 2 p.m. with a 50-acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low is now centered over Idaho and moving slowly east. Its eastward movement will allow for a southwest and then westerly transport flow to develop this afternoon over the valley and then a weak marine push by evening. The pressure gradient is still negative between Salem and Redmond however the overall gradients are expected to be positive by about noon. Mixing heights will be slow to rise but sufficient in the afternoon for a burning opportunity. Primary considerations for burning are to confirm a westerly component to the wind, positive gradients and good mixing heights, all expected to be in place by around 2:00 p.m. Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping 40% about noon and 30% near 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SSW by 2:00 p.m. and W 6-9 mph around 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SW 6-10 mph becoming W by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Only 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 3000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 13th: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Northerly flow will likely prevent burning on Thursday though there is a chance that transport winds could turn northwesterly late Friday afternoon for burn opportunity. Saturday still looks like the best opportunity of the week as cold front will approaching from the northwest. Transport winds will increasingly be westerly during the afternoon, but models still disagree on the speed on which it arrives. If the faster European model is more correct then rain would likely arrive too soon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 15 07:25:55 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:25:55 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED SEPT 14, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed now until 2 p.m. with a 50-acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low is now centered over Idaho and moving slowly east. Its eastward movement has allowed a southwest and then westerly transport flow this afternoon over the valley and then a weak marine push will follow in evening. Pressure gradients have balanced and are expected to remain so this afternoon. Mixing heights will rising quickly in the next several hours and become sufficient for a burning opportunity. Primary considerations for burning are to confirm a westerly component to the wind, continued positive gradients and good mixing heights, all expected to be in place by around 2:00 p.m. A PIBAL will provide a better picture at 1:00 p.m. Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 79?F (average is 78?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 40% about noon and 30% near 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 8-12 mph becoming SSW by 2:00 p.m. and W around 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: SW 8-12 mph becoming W by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Currently only 1000 feet but rising to 3000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:23 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 13th: High 84?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Northerly flow will likely prevent burning on Thursday though there is a chance that transport winds could turn northwesterly late Friday afternoon for burn opportunity. Saturday still looks like the best opportunity of the week as cold front will approach from the northwest. Transport winds will increasingly be westerly during the afternoon, but models still disagree on the speed on which it arrives. The faster model might bring rain in too quickly to burn. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 15 08:49:14 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2016 15:49:14 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT THU SEPT 15, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Very weak pressure gradients have left the valley with little wind today although a light north breeze will develop. It may be mid-afternoon before it becomes persistent. Mixing heights will also be slower to rise than occurred yesterday. Primary factors to limit burning will be very little wind and becoming north when it does occur. Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping 50% about 11:00 a.m. 30% near 3:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 2-5 mph increasing to 5-8 mph after 3:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 2-5 mph increasing to 9-12 mph after 3:00 p.m. Mixing height: Near 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 2000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:22 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 14th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 36) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Models still indicate light northerly breezes on Friday then transport winds would turn northwest late in the afternoon. It would likely be too light and too late in the day for burning to occur. They also show a good burning opportunity on Saturday in all aspects except that the possibility of rain has increased for earlier in the day. Southwest transport winds will increase on Saturday as will mixing heights. Pressure gradients are leaning negative but may improve in the afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 15 11:38:22 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2016 18:38:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT THU SEPT 15, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Very weak pressure gradients have left the valley with little wind today although a light north breeze will develop. It may be mid-afternoon before it becomes persistent. Mixing heights will also be slower to rise than occurred yesterday. Primary factors to limit burning will be very little wind and becoming north when it does occur. Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping 50% about 11:00 a.m. 30% near 3:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 2-5 mph increasing to 5-8 mph after 3:00 p.m. Transport winds: N 2-5 mph increasing to 9-12 mph after 3:00 p.m. Mixing height: Near 1000 feet currently rising to 2000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:22 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 14th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 36) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Models still indicate light northerly breezes on Friday then transport winds would turn northwest late in the afternoon. It would likely be too light and too late in the day for burning to occur. They also show a good burning opportunity on Saturday in all aspects except that the possibility of rain has increased for earlier in the day. Models disagree on this issue and the rain may not be farther south than the Columbia. Southwest transport winds will increase on Saturday as will mixing heights. Pressure gradients are leaning negative but may improve in the afternoon. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 16 08:46:05 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 16 Sep 2016 15:46:05 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI SEPT 16, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11:00 a.m. until 2 p.m. with a 50-acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak pressure gradients remain in the valley. Very light breezes will turn WNW this afternoon although they would be very light. They will become more consistently west this evening and overnight. Pressure gradients are currently negative but models do show them becoming positive in the afternoon. Mixing heights will again be slow to rise but strong sunshine will get them to burnable levels around mid-afternoon. Limiting factors for burning today will be low mixing heights early and weak winds all day. Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% by noon and below 30% by 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 2-5 mph becoming NNW 5-8 mph around 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: NE 2-4 mph becoming NW around 2:00 p.m. and WNW 5-9 mph around 4:00 p.m. Mixing height: Near 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 2500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:20 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 15th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 32) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Southwest transport winds and good mixing levels still imply an excellent burning opportunity on Saturday, and models show the pressure gradients improving by afternoon. Last night's models did reach consensus that rain would be likely in the afternoon but this morning the first model to arrive backed off on that scenario. Even without rain the clouds would prevent sunshine relative humidity from going below 55%. Sunday will likely be a drying day after the valley receives widespread one- to two-tenths of rain late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Monday through Friday looks much drier and transport winds in the afternoons will likely be northwest most days. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 16 11:51:46 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 16 Sep 2016 18:51:46 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT FRI SEPT 16, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 11:00 a.m. until 2 p.m. with a 50-acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak pressure gradients remain in the valley. Very light breezes will turn WNW this afternoon although they would be very light. They will become more consistently W this evening and overnight. Pressure gradients remain negative but are trending towards a balance and should be positive in the afternoon. Mixing heights will again be slow to rise but strong sunshine will get them to burnable levels around mid-afternoon. Limiting factors for burning today are low mixing heights early and weak winds all day. Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 35% by 2:00 p.m. and below 30% by 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: NNE 2-5 mph becoming NNW 5-8 mph around 4:00 p.m. Transport winds: NE 2-4 mph becoming NW around 2:00 p.m. and WNW 5-9 mph around 4:00 p.m. Mixing height: Currently about 1000 feet then rising to 2500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:20 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 15th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 32) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Southwest transport winds and good mixing levels still imply an excellent burning opportunity on Saturday, and models show the pressure gradients improving during the day. Transport winds will be strengthening though, possibly reaching 20-25 mph by mid-afternoon. Models remain consistent in bringing rain to the area on Saturday though most indicate that it would be slightly north of the fields early in the afternoon. These models indicate that clouds would limit warming and relative humidity may not fall below 60% even if no rain occurs. Sunday will likely be a drying day after the valley receives widespread one- to two-tenths of rain late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Monday through Friday looks drier and transport winds in the afternoons will likely be northwest most days. The newest model does suggest a chance of showers each day with the upper trough intensifying over the region. These would be mainly developing in the afternoon and be spotty when they occur. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sat Sep 17 11:57:58 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2016 18:57:58 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] couldn't attach the file, but it is pasted below Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT SAT SEPT 17, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: N/A WEATHER DISCUSSION: The rain this morning probably averaged about a tenth of an inch on the east side of Willamette Valley this morning and no one escaped a wetting rain. The moisture will keep relative humidity levels very high today to prevent any burning. Mixing heights are good but it will not help with wet grounds. Cloudy with periods of rain. Salem's high temperature today will be near 67?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Falling no lower than 65% by mid-afternoon. Surface winds: S 9-12 mph becoming SSW about 1:00 p.m. Transport winds: SSW 10-14 mph becoming SW 15-20 mph by 1:00 p.m. Mixing height: At least 5000 feet all afternoon. Salem?s sunset tonight: 7:18 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Friday, September 16th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00?) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Any upper level trough will be just offshore or over Western Oregon most of the next week. There is still a good chance of rain tonight and Sunday so a drying day might have to occur on Monday. Southwest transport winds will continue through the weekend and much of next week. The major question for burning through the next week will be whether showers occur on any particular day, and whether we have dried out enough to do so. The National Weather Service?s digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sat Sep 17 12:01:16 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2016 19:01:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] (no subject) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT SAT SEPT 17, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: N/A WEATHER DISCUSSION: The rain this morning probably averaged about a tenth of an inch on the east side of Willamette Valley this morning and no one escaped a wetting rain. The moisture will keep relative humidity levels very high today to prevent any burning. Mixing heights are good but it will not help with wet grounds. Cloudy with periods of rain. Salem's high temperature today will be near 67?F (average is 77?F). Relative humidity: Falling no lower than 65% by mid-afternoon. Surface winds: S 9-12 mph becoming SSW about 1:00 p.m. Transport winds: SSW 10-14 mph becoming SW 15-20 mph by 1:00 p.m. Mixing height: At least 5000 feet all afternoon. Salem?s sunset tonight: 7:18 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Friday, September 16th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00?) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Any upper level trough will be just offshore or over Western Oregon most of the next week. There is still a good chance of rain tonight and Sunday so a drying day might have to occur on Monday. Southwest transport winds will continue through the weekend and much of next week. The major question for burning through the next week will be whether showers occur on any particular day, and whether we have dried out enough to do so. The National Weather Service?s digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 19 08:58:43 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2016 15:58:43 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON SEP 19, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An autumn-like weather system brought an abrupt change to the weather over the weekend. Temperatures cooled from the mid-80s on Friday to the upper-60s on Saturday, and the Salem Airport recorded close to three-quarters of an inch of rain. Sunday was dry, with just a trace of rain, but temperatures only recovered into the low-70s (still below average). An upper-level trough, in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, is producing a strong westerly flow aloft over Oregon. Numerous showers are circulating inland across Washington and extreme northern Oregon. Radar is not showing any shower activity as far south as Marion County. However, low clouds do extend southward across the entire Willamette Valley and will only partially clear this afternoon. Cool air aloft will provide excellent mixing this afternoon, once surface temperatures rise into the upper-60s. Westerly transport winds may allow for the burning of any dry fields. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 70?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 1 p.m. and to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5 mph this morning; W 5 mph this afternoon...turning NW late. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph this morning; W 10 mph this afternoon...NW late. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:14 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 18th: High 73?F; Rainfall: Trace") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft may provide favorable burning conditions again Tuesday afternoon, if fields can dry out. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 19 11:58:37 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2016 18:58:37 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON SEP 19, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An autumn-like weather system dumped about three-quarters of an inch of rain across the region this past weekend. As a result, fields are still too damp for burning today. Strong WSW flow aloft is sending numerous showers across Washington and a few showers into extreme northern Oregon. Mostly cloudy skies extend southward across Marion County and much of Linn County. Light showers can't be ruled out this afternoon. Temperatures will remain below average. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 69?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 1 p.m. and to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5 mph; becoming W 5 mph this afternoon...turning NW late. Transport winds: SW 5-10 mph; becoming W 10 mph this afternoon...NW late. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:14 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 18th: High 73?F; Rainfall: Trace") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft and light NW transport winds may provide favorable burning conditions on Tuesday, if fields are dry enough. Gradient-stacking may also be a limiting factor. An upper-level trough is projected to move over the region on Wednesday, which will increase the chance of showers but may also produce favorable burning conditions, if fields are dry enough. High pressure will bring drying and warming late in the week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 20 08:44:22 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2016 15:44:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE SEP 20, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, dropping southward just offshore, is producing a WSW flow aloft over Oregon. The jet stream is also sagging southward over Oregon, pushing an associated band of middle and high clouds across the state. These clouds are beginning to slide SE of the Silverton Hills, which will allow for more sunshine today. Cool air aloft and surface heating should promote excellent mixing but also cumulus cloud development this afternoon. A shower can't be ruled out, especially over higher terrain. Low-level winds have turned light northerly but should veer to the NW later today. A burning opportunity is possible this afternoon, if fields can dry out enough. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an afternoon shower. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% around 2 p.m. and to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; NNW 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:12 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 19th: High 68?F; Rainfall: 0.00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The offshore upper-level trough is projected to move over the region on Wednesday. Cooling aloft will continue to provide excellent mixing, but the chance of showers will increase. If fields are dry enough, NW winds may provide a burning opportunity. The upper-level trough will push SE of the region on Thursday. A drier and more stable NW flow aloft should end the threat of showers. However, continued onshore flow may produce favorable burning conditions, if fields are dry enough. A weakening frontal system may provide another burning opportunity on Friday, before renewing the chance of rain late in the day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 20 11:57:34 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2016 18:57:34 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT TUE SEP 20, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough, dropping southward just offshore, is producing a WSW flow aloft over Oregon. A band of middle and high clouds, associated with the jet stream, has pushed mostly east of the Willamette Valley, allowing for more sunshine today. That will aid in the drying of damp fields. Cool air aloft and surface heating will provide excellent mixing today but is already causing cumulus cloud development. A shower can't be ruled out, especially over higher terrain, but the bulk of the shower activity will remain offshore today. Northerly low-level winds should veer to the NW later today, which may create a burning opportunity, if fields can dry out enough. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower, mainly over higher terrain. Salem's high temperature today will be near 71?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% around 2 p.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NNW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph; becoming NNW 10-15 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:12 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 19th: High 68?F; Rainfall: 0.00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough will onshore on Wednesday. Cooling aloft will continue to provide excellent mixing, but the chance of showers will increase. NNW winds may provide a burning opportunity for dry fields. The upper-level trough will push SE of the region on Thursday with a drier and more stable NW flow aloft ending the threat of showers. Increasing WNW transport winds may produce favorable burning conditions for dry fields. A weakening frontal system is expected to turn transport winds to the SSW on Friday, possibly creating another burning opportunity. This system may also bring rain to the region as soon as Friday afternoon, but rainfall totals are expected to be only around one-tenth of an inch or less. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 37376 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 21 09:47:57 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 16:47:57 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED SEPT 21, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Showers late yesterday afternoon appear to have gone no farther east than the Salem area, so fields are likely drier today except that fog this morning is starting them moist. The upper trough over western Oregon will gradually sink southward into northern California and Nevada tonight and Thursday. Enough cold air remains from the trough to make showers possible again today but the scenario would likely be similar to yesterday, starting out on higher terrain and drifting into part of the valley. Otherwise, winds will be N most of today and most of the models tend to keep it N through the afternoon, but there is a chance that a NNW transport wind can be realized by mid-afternoon for a possible burn opportunity. Pressure gradients are slightly negative but balancing should occur once warming occurs by early afternoon. Due to the fog mixing heights will also start rising slowly but excellent heights are likely by late afternoon. The primary limiting factor today will be the wind but the direction in afternoon is uncertain. TODAY's FORECAST Fog and low clouds dissipating during the morning then sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 70?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% about 1:00 p.m. and near 40% at 4:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: N 8-10 mph increasing to 10-14 mph after 2:00 p.m. and possibly turning NNW. Mixing height: Near 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 2500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 5000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:10 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 21st: High 72?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 32) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Thursday still looks like a better burning opportunity since transport winds will begin the day northwesterly and then transition to west. Gradients will again questionable and there will be a few showers in the area, but overall the afternoon conditions appear to encourage burning. Friday looks more likely to be wet as a decaying cold front arrives from the Pacific with showers around noon. Winds do not look especially favorable for burning this weekend, certainly not on Sunday, but so far, early next week still looks like a better week to burn with very small chances of showers from day to day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 21 11:54:16 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 18:54:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED SEPT 21, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Clouds have been stubborn to burn off and they will require at least a couple more hours on the east side of the valley. The clouds are slowing down the drop of humidity and rise of the mixing height. They are still expected to reach burnable levels by mid-afternoon but it is also slowing down the progress towards balancing of pressure gradients. Transport winds will gradually turn N with a chance of turning NNW in mid-afternoon for a possible burn opportunity. The primary limiting factor remains a north wind and whether pressure gradients can balance. There is still a slight chance of showers though becoming less likely since warming is slower to occur. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST Becoming sunny by mid-afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 69?F (average is 76?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% about 2:00 p.m. and near 40% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: NNE 8-10 mph becoming N 9-12 mph after 2:00 p.m., possibly turning NNW late. Mixing height: Rising to 2000 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 4500 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:10 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 21st: High 72?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Thursday still looks like a better burning opportunity since transport winds will begin the day northwesterly and then transition to west. Gradients will again questionable and there will be a few showers in the area, but overall the afternoon conditions appear to encourage burning. Friday looks more likely to be wet as a decaying cold front arrives from the Pacific with showers around noon. Winds do not look especially favorable for burning this weekend, certainly not on Sunday, but so far, early next week still looks like a better week to burn with very small chances of showers from day to day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 22 08:41:32 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 15:41:32 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT THU SEPT 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low centered over northern California will move into Nevada today as another system approaching in the Pacific nudges it eastward. The low caused the thunder yesterday and last night but as it is forced to move on so does the instability. The thunderstorm last night in Salem was quite localized and east of I-5 rainfall reports received are mainly a trace. Relative humidity will be slow to fall today and mixing height again slow to rise, but are expected to reach burnable levels. South winds will gradually turn west. The primary limiting factor for burning may be the pressure gradients though they are not far from balancing now and if we receive enough sunshine they should balance too. TODAY's FORECAST Mostly cloudy with partial clearing in afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 69?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% about 2:00 p.m. and near 50% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SSW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 mph. Mixing height: Near 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 2500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 23rd: High 73?F; Rainfall: .44") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 36) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The approaching system contains significant moisture but is weakening. It will likely cause a period of rain in the middle of the day on Friday to limit burning potential. North or northeast winds will dominate the transport layer over the weekend but no rain is expected. Monday and Tuesday appear to be possible burn days, especially Tuesday with northwest winds and maximal drying before that. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 22 09:00:32 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 16:00:32 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast Jefferson County_Gary.doc Message-ID: JEFFERSON COUNTY FIELD-BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:40 AM PDT THU SEPT 22, 2016 TODAY'S DISCUSSION: The upper low now centered over northern California will move into Nevada today. Transport winds today will gradually respond to the northeast flow aloft and then become more north as the trough moves more south. Otherwise, good mixing heights can be expected. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly sunny and cool. Madras' Forecast High Today: 62?F (Wednesday's High: 64?F; Rainfall: .01") Transport Winds: NW 10-15 mph increasing to 15-20 mph about 2:00 p.m. Mixing Heights: 2500 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 4000 feet at 2:00 p.m. and 5000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Relative Humidity: Dropping to 50% near 11:00 a.m. then about 40% through mid- and late afternoon. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: There is a slight chance of showers tonight through Friday. The wind will turn strong northwesterly on Thursday afternoon and westerly on Friday as the upper low moves northeast from Nevada. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.68&lon=-121.14861&site=pdt&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. at a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. 4. Ventilation Index (if you want to calculate it) is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For more information, contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Forecast Jefferson County_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: Forecast Jefferson County_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 22 09:06:22 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 16:06:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT THU SEPT 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low centered over northern California will move into Nevada today as another system approaching in the Pacific nudges it eastward. The low caused the thunder yesterday and last night but as it is forced to move on so does the instability. The thunderstorm last night in Salem was quite localized and east of I-5 rainfall reports received are mainly a trace. Relative humidity will be slow to fall today and mixing height again slow to rise, but are expected to reach burnable levels. South winds will gradually turn west. The primary limiting factor for burning may be the pressure gradients though they are not far from balancing now and if we receive enough sunshine they should balance too. TODAY's FORECAST Mostly cloudy with partial clearing in afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 69?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% about 2:00 p.m. and near 50% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SSW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 mph. Mixing height: Near 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 2500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 23rd: High 73?F; Rainfall: .44") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 36) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The approaching system contains significant moisture but is weakening. It will likely cause a period of rain in the middle of the day on Friday to limit burning potential. North or northeast winds will dominate the transport layer over the weekend but no rain is expected. Monday and Tuesday appear to be possible burn days, especially Tuesday with northwest winds and maximal drying before that. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 22 09:09:39 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 16:09:39 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT THU SEPT 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low centered over northern California will move into Nevada today as another system approaching in the Pacific nudges it eastward. The low caused the thunder yesterday and last night but as it is forced to move on so does the instability. The thunderstorm last night in Salem was quite localized and east of I-5 rainfall reports received are mainly a trace. Relative humidity will be slow to fall today and mixing height again slow to rise, but are expected to reach burnable levels. South winds will gradually turn west. The primary limiting factor for burning may be the pressure gradients though they are not far from balancing now and if we receive enough sunshine they should balance too. TODAY's FORECAST Mostly cloudy with partial clearing in afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 69?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% about 2:00 p.m. and near 50% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SSW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 mph. Mixing height: Near 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 2500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 23rd: High 73?F; Rainfall: .44") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 36) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The approaching system contains significant moisture but is weakening. It will likely cause a period of rain in the middle of the day on Friday to limit burning potential. North or northeast winds will dominate the transport layer over the weekend but no rain is expected. Monday and Tuesday appear to be possible burn days, especially Tuesday with northwest winds and maximal drying before that. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 22 09:17:38 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 16:17:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT THU SEPT 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low centered over northern California will move into Nevada today as another system approaching in the Pacific nudges it eastward. The low caused the thunder yesterday and last night but as it is forced to move on so does the instability. The thunderstorm last night in Salem was quite localized and east of I-5 rainfall reports received are mainly a trace. Relative humidity will be slow to fall today and mixing height again slow to rise, but are expected to reach burnable levels. South winds will gradually turn west. The primary limiting factor for burning may be the pressure gradients though they are not far from balancing now and if we receive enough sunshine they should balance too. TODAY's FORECAST Mostly cloudy with partial clearing in afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 69?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% about 2:00 p.m. and near 50% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SSW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 mph. Mixing height: Near 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 2500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 23rd: High 73?F; Rainfall: .44") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 36) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The approaching system contains significant moisture but is weakening. It will likely cause a period of rain in the middle of the day on Friday to limit burning potential. North or northeast winds will dominate the transport layer over the weekend but no rain is expected. Monday and Tuesday appear to be possible burn days, especially Tuesday with northwest winds and maximal drying before that. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 22 09:34:25 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 16:34:25 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT THU SEPT 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low centered over northern California will move into Nevada today as another system approaching in the Pacific nudges it eastward. The low caused the thunder yesterday and last night but as it is forced to move on so does the instability. The thunderstorm last night in Salem was quite localized and east of I-5 rainfall reports received are mainly a trace. Relative humidity will be slow to fall today and mixing height again slow to rise, but are expected to reach burnable levels. South winds will gradually turn west. The primary limiting factor for burning may be the pressure gradients though they are not far from balancing now and if we receive enough sunshine they should balance too. TODAY's FORECAST Mostly cloudy with partial clearing in afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 69?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% about 2:00 p.m. and near 50% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: S 5-8 mph becoming SSW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 mph. Mixing height: Near 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to 2500 feet about 2:00 p.m. and 3000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 23rd: High 73?F; Rainfall: .44") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 36) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The approaching system contains significant moisture but is weakening. It will likely cause a period of rain in the middle of the day on Friday to limit burning potential. North or northeast winds will dominate the transport layer over the weekend but no rain is expected. Monday and Tuesday appear to be possible burn days, especially Tuesday with northwest winds and maximal drying before that. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 22 11:34:18 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 18:34:18 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:35 AM PDT THU SEPT 22, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper level low centered over northern California will move into Nevada today as another system approaching in the Pacific nudges it eastward. The low caused the thunder yesterday and last night but as it is forced to move on so does the instability. The thunderstorm last night in Salem was quite localized and the only substantial rainfall report east of I-5 was near Aumsville, with 0.20 inch. Most areas received a trace. Relative humidity is expected to be slightly better than expected earlier and the mixing height much better as it has already reached about 2500 feet and still improving. South winds will gradually turn west. The primary limiting factor for burning still looks like pressure gradients but as warming occurs in the valley they may balance as well. TODAY's FORECAST Mostly cloudy with partial clearing in afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 70?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% about 1:00 p.m. and near 45% at 5:00 p.m. Surface winds: S 6-10 mph becoming SW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: S 6-10 mph becoming SSW about 2:00 p.m. then W 9-12 mph by 5:00 mph. Mixing height: Near 2500 feet currently rising to about 5000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:08 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 23rd: High 73?F; Rainfall: .44") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 36) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The approaching system contains significant moisture but is weakening. It will likely cause a period of rain in the middle of the day on Friday to limit burning potential. North or northeast winds will dominate the transport layer over the weekend but no rain is expected. Monday and Tuesday appear to be possible burn days, especially Tuesday with northwest winds and maximal drying before that. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31744 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 23 08:44:16 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 15:44:16 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT FRI SEPT 23, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A storm system has arrived over northwest Oregon this morning even though it is gradually weakening. Strong south winds will increase this morning with possible gusts to 30 mph then decrease late in the afternoon and evening. A large area of showers will be moving through the area this morning which will decrease slightly into the afternoon. Some locations in the valley will see a quarter inch of rain. The showers will keep conditions moist with low mixing heights most of the day, and negative pressure gradients. No burning opportunity is expected today. TODAY's FORECAST Cloudy and windy with showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 60?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to around 75% about 11:00 a.m. but rising above 80% at times into the afternoon. Surface winds: S 14-20 mph with gusts possible to 30 mph. Transport winds: S 18-23 mph. Mixing height: 500 feet at 11:00 a.m. rising to about 3500 feet by late afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:06 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 22nd: High 71?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: No rain is expected this weekend and drying conditions will be good, especially on Sunday. Current models indicate the best chance of burning early next week would be Monday with southwest transport winds gradually becoming northwest. They show winds becoming north to northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 23 11:36:37 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 18:36:37 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:35 AM PDT FRI SEPT 23, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A storm system has arrived over northwest Oregon this morning even though it is gradually weakening. Strong south winds will increase this morning with possible gusts to 30 mph then decrease late in the afternoon and evening. The showers have decreased though periods of light showers will occur through the afternoon. Additional rainfall will be a tenth of an inch or less. The clouds and showers will keep conditions moist with low mixing heights most of the day, and negative pressure gradients. No burning opportunity is expected today. TODAY's FORECAST Cloudy and windy with showers. Salem's high temperature today will be near 61?F (average is 75?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to around 75% in mid-afternoon. Surface winds: S 14-20 mph with gusts possible to 30 mph. Transport winds: S 18-23 mph. Mixing height: Currently around 500 feet, rising to about 3500 feet by late afternoon. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:06 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 22nd: High 71?F; Rainfall: Trace) (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 80) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: No rain is expected this weekend and drying conditions will be good, especially on Sunday as a strong ridge builds over the valley. Models are unsettled about transport winds early next week and they no longer show Monday with favorable winds. Each day of the week shows some potential for burning but it appears too early to determine which day might be best. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Gary.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 26 08:56:38 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 15:56:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT MON SEP 26, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong and broad upper-level ridge is centered over Idaho this morning with very warm and stable air aloft over Oregon. At the surface, a thermal trough extends northward along the coast with weak offshore pressure gradients across the Willamette Valley. The upper-level ridge will progress eastward today with the surface thermal trough shifting over the Willamette Valley around midday and into central Oregon later this afternoon. That may create a late-day burning opportunity, for remaining fields, as transport winds turn northwesterly and mixing heights creep upward, to between 3000 and 3500 feet. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 74?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% around noon and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Var 5 mph this morning; becoming NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Var 5 mph this morning; becoming NW 10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:01 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 25th: High 84?F; Rainfall: 0.00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 35) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak cold front will push across SW British Columbia tonight with the trailing edge bringing some clouds and a marine push into NW Oregon. Tuesday will be at least 10 degrees cooler with morning clouds giving way to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Gradient-stacking will likely be unfavorable for burning with northerly winds in the afternoon. A continued dry SW flow aloft may turn transport winds northwesterly Wednesday afternoon with gradients becoming more favorable for burning. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Sep 26 11:59:28 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 18:59:28 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT MON SEP 26, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A strong and broad upper-level ridge, centered over Idaho, is slowly sifting eastward. A surface thermal trough was along the coast this morning and is shifting over the Willamette Valley at midday. Pressure gradients are flat from Newport to Salem and remain offshore from Redmond to Salem. Today will likely be apex of this warm spell and the warmest day until next spring. Warm air aloft will likely keep mixing heights from climbing much above 3000 feet today. The surface thermal trough is expected to shift into central Oregon later this afternoon, which may turn transport winds northwesterly and create a late-day burning opportunity. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and unseasonably warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 87?F (average is 74?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Var 5 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph late this afternoon. Transport winds: Var 5 mph; becoming NW 10 mph late this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 7:01 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, September 25th: High 84?F; Rainfall: 0.00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 35) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A weak cold front will push across SW British Columbia tonight with the trailing edge bringing some clouds and a marine push into NW Oregon. Tuesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today with morning clouds and afternoon sunshine. Gradient-stacking will likely be unfavorable for burning with northerly transport winds. SW flow aloft will continue through Thursday with onshore cooling temperatures back close to average. Transport winds will be mostly northerly but could turn enough NNW in the afternoons for limited burning. Friday could be a burning opportunity ahead of a cold front. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 27 08:41:33 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 15:41:33 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT TUE SEP 27, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak cold front brought a marine push inland overnight. Low clouds blanket the Willamette Valley this morning, and areas of light drizzle are possible. Skies should clear later this afternoon, but NNE transport winds and negative gradient-stacking are expected, both of which are unfavorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Morning clouds; becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 73?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 2 p.m. and to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; N 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10-15 mph this morning; NNE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 26th: High 90?F; Rainfall: 0.00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A dry SW flow aloft is expected Wednesday and Thursday with weak onshore flow cooling temperatures back close to average. Patchy morning clouds will likely give way to afternoon sunshine both days. Transport winds should be northerly on Wednesday but NW winds on Thursday may allow for the burning of any remaining fields. Friday could also be a burning opportunity, ahead of a cold front. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Sep 27 11:53:56 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 18:53:56 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT TUE SEP 27, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak cold front brought a marine push inland overnight. Low clouds blanketed the Willamette Valley this morning but are breaking up at midday. Skies should turn mostly sunny this afternoon, but NNE transport winds and negative gradient-stacking will be unfavorable for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 73?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 2 p.m. and to near 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 15-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:59 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, September 26th: High 90?F; Rainfall: 0.00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A dry SW flow aloft will maintain weak low-level onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday. Patchy morning clouds should give way sunshine in the afternoons, with temperatures cooling to near average. Transport winds should stay northerly on Wednesday but may turn enough northwesterly to allow for the burning of any remaining fields on Thursday. Friday looks to be the last burning opportunity of the 2016 season, ahead of a cold front. Showers are possible as soon as Friday afternoon and will continue through this weekend with well-below-average temperatures. Another storm is expected to bring widespread rain and wind on Monday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 28 08:40:40 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 15:40:40 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:40 AM PDT WED SEP 28, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Oregon is under the influence of a dry, warm, and stable SW flow aloft and very weak onshore flow at the surface. Satellite imagery shows only patchy low clouds this morning, which should quickly give way to mostly sunny skies. A burning opportunity is unlikely today, with northerly transport winds expected this afternoon. Warm air aloft will also suppress daytime mixing. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 73?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% around 11 a.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this morning; N 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 10-15 mph this morning; N 15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 27th: High 75?F; Rainfall: 0.00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft will strengthen on Thursday, but the air mass will remain dry. Patchy morning fog or low clouds should give way sunshine in the afternoon with near-average temperatures. There is a chance that increasing onshore flow will turn afternoon transport winds enough to the NW to allow for the burning of any remaining fields. There may be one last burning opportunity, for the 2016 season, on Friday, ahead of a cold front. Showers may begin as early as Friday afternoon and will continue through this weekend, as temperatures drop to well below average. Another storm is expected to bring rain late Monday and Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Sep 28 11:56:06 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 18:56:06 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT WED SEP 28, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Oregon is under the influence of a dry, warm, and stable SW flow aloft with very weak onshore flow. Satellite imagery showed only patchy low clouds early this morning, which have mostly evaporated. Northerly transport winds and suppressed mixing make a burning opportunity unlikely this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 73?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 7-12 mph. Transport winds: N 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and 3500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, September 27th: High 75?F; Rainfall: 0.00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The air mass will remain dry and warm on Thursday, but strengthening SW flow aloft will increase the onshore flow in the afternoon. That may turn transport winds enough northwesterly to allow for the burning of all remaining fields. There is a chance of another burning opportunity on Friday, ahead of a cold front, but that is not certain. Showers may begin as early as Friday afternoon and are likely this weekend, as temperatures drop to well below average. Another storm is expected to bring rain late Monday and Tuesday, as a fall-like weather pattern brings an end to the 2016 field-burning season. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35840 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 29 08:54:45 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2016 15:54:45 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT THU SEP 29, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Strengthening SW flow aloft will spread considerable high clouds across the region today. Cooling aloft will improve mixing, with surface temperatures returning to near average. Increasing onshore flow should turn gradient-stacking positive, later this afternoon, and turn transport winds enough northwesterly to allow for the burning of any remaining fields. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 72?F (average is 72?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% around noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NW 8-12 this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 28th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 48) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A transition to a fall-like weather pattern should bring an end to the 2016 field-burning season this weekend. Increasing SW transport winds could provide one last burning opportunity, ahead of a cold front, on Friday. Showers are possible as soon as Friday afternoon and are likely this weekend, as temperatures progressively drop to well-below average. Showers should end on Monday, but another Pacific storm system is slated to spread rain back across the region Monday night and Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Sep 29 11:55:48 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2016 18:55:48 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT THU SEP 29, 2016 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Strengthening SW flow aloft is spreading high clouds across the region today, while lower levels of the air mass remain quite dry. Cooling aloft will improve mixing this afternoon and cap surface temperatures near average. Negatively-stacked onshore pressure gradients (1.4mb from Newport to Salem and 3.4mb from Salem to Redmond late this morning) should balance out later today. Northerly transport winds are predicted to turn enough northwesterly, later this afternoon, to allow for the burning of all remaining fields. A PIBAL is scheduled for 3 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 72?F (average is 72?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5 mph; becoming NNW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph; becoming NW 8-12 later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:55 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, September 28th: High 75?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 48) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A transition to a fall-like weather pattern should accompany the end of the 2016 field-burning. Increasing SW transport winds could provide one last burning opportunity, ahead of a cold front, on Friday. Showers are possible as soon as Friday afternoon and are likely this weekend, as temperatures progressively drop to well-below average. Showers should end on Monday, but another Pacific storm system is slated to spread rain back across the region Monday night and Tuesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Sep 30 08:42:08 2016 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2016 15:42:08 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0930a.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI SEPT 30, 2016 ***THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED FIELD BURNING FORECAST FOR THIS SEASON*** BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. until 5 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level low west of the Oregon coast will spread clouds inland today and then showers tonight. Transport winds will be favorable for burning today and mixing heights will improve during the afternoon. However, pressure gradients are not likely to balance since the clouds will limit sunshine in the valley. The primary limiting factor for burning today will be pressure gradients. TODAY's FORECAST Increasing clouds, cloudy in the afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 67?F (average is 72?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by noon to 45% by late afternoon. Surface winds: S 4-8 mph becoming SW 9-12 mph by 5:00 p.m. Transport winds: S 6-10 mph becoming SSW 10-14 mph at 2:00 p.m. then SW 14-17 mph by 5:00 p.m. Mixing height: Rising to 1000 feet at 11:00 a.m. and 3000 feet around 2:00 p.m. and 4000 feet by 5:00 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 6:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, September 29th: High 72?F; Rainfall: 0.00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Showers tonight and Saturday will likely only total about a tenth of an inch with additional chances on Sunday. The next storm system will arrive on Monday as it comes quickly on the heels of the current one. These systems indicate a transition to more a more autumn-like pattern as no day next week can be ruled out for receiving rain. Transport winds will remain mainly SW through Saturday, then variable on Sunday and return to SW on Monday as the next system approaches. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Gary Votaw ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0930a.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: fbs0930a.htm.doc URL: