From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 6 13:43:48 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 6 Jul 2017 20:43:48 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] TEST - Silverton Hills Forecast Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 1:30 PM PDT THU JUL 6, 2017 ***This is a test in preparation for the 2017 Field Burning Season. Field Burning forecasts will begin being issued on Monday, July 10th.*** BURN ADVISORY: TEST MESSAGE TEST MESSAGE WEATHER DISCUSSION: TEST MESSAGE TODAY'S FORECAST: TEST MESSAGE TEST MESSAGE TEST MESSAGE TEST MESSAGE TEST MESSAGE TEST MESSAGE TEST MESSAGE TEST MESSAGE TEST MESSAGE EXTENDED DISCUSSION: TEST MESSAGE The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.docx Type: application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document Size: 15174 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.docx URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 7 08:30:44 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 7 Jul 2017 15:30:44 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Test Message for Silverton Hills Field-Burning Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD-BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:30 AM PDT FRI JUL 7, 2017 TEST MESSAGE: You are receiving this message because you are on the email list for the "Silverton Hills Field-Burning Forecast," which will be issued daily beginning on Monday, July 10th. If you do not wish to be on this list, you may unsubscribe from it, via the link below. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For more information, contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Test Message for Silverton Hills Field-Burning Forecast.doc Type: application/msword Size: 31232 bytes Desc: Test Message for Silverton Hills Field-Burning Forecast.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 10 08:39:58 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2017 15:39:58 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 10th, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 7, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 10 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Moist SW flow aloft with onshore flow at the surface will persist across the Silverton Hills today. Pressure gradients from Newport-Salem-Redmond are flat, but expected to become positive as temperatures rise under clearing skies. Mixing and transport winds improve as positive gradients stack this afternoon, possibly creating a short window for field burning before the sea breeze pushes marine air into the Willamette Valley, creating more cloud cover. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy skies becoming Partly Cloudy after noon. Skies become Mostly Cloudy again by early evening. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% after 1 p.m. Surface winds: Variable 5 mph or less becoming NW 5-10 mph with occasional gusts near 15 mph after 1 p.m. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph becoming W-NW 12-18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet by 12 p.m. and increasing to 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 9th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: W flow aloft develops for Tuesday, which will enhance the afternoon sea breeze and maintain temperatures below seasonal averages. Field burning may be possible through most of the afternoon, with wind speeds being the limiting factor to watch. Flow aloft turns more W-SW overnight into Wednesday, as stable weather develops and weakens the afternoon sea breeze. This will keep skies relatively clear as the atmosphere warms quickly and temperatures return to seasonal averages. Dry SW flow aloft persists into Thursday, with temperatures at or slightly above seasonal averages, but weather remains fairly similar to Wednesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 35328 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 10 11:39:38 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2017 18:39:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 10th, 2017 (Noon Update) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 7, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 10 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft with onshore flow at the surface is weakening across the Silverton Hills today, allowing the atmosphere to dry out quickly as temperatures rise. Pressure gradients from Newport-Salem-Redmond have become negative, with any positive development being delayed until late this afternoon. Mixing and transport winds improve this afternoon, but surface flow remains northerly as high pressure reforms this afternoon and limits a marine push into Oregon tonight. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies becoming Mostly Clear overnight. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Below 45% now and bottoming out near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph becoming N-NW 10-15 mph after 5 p.m. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph becoming W-NW 12-18 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet by 12 p.m. and increasing to 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 9th: High 87?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: W flow aloft develops for Tuesday, which will enhance the afternoon sea breeze and maintain temperatures just below seasonal averages. Field burning may be possible through most of the afternoon, with wind speeds being the limiting factor to watch. Flow aloft turns more W-SW overnight into Wednesday, as stable weather develops and weakens the afternoon sea breeze. This will keep skies relatively clear as the atmosphere warms quickly and temperatures return to seasonal averages. Dry SW flow aloft persists into Thursday, with temperatures at or slightly above seasonal averages, but weather remains fairly similar to Wednesday. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 34816 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 11 08:37:20 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 11 Jul 2017 15:37:20 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 11th, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 11, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 9 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: W flow aloft maintains high pressure and stable weather over the Willamette Valley today, with clear skies allowing temperatures to creep above seasonal averages. Pressure gradients are negatively stacked, but rapid heating in central Oregon this morning may flatten and eventually switch the gradient by mid-afternoon. Onshore flow will remain weak with northerly transport winds until this occurs, though mixing conditions will become favorable by noon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies with afternoon haze. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 9 a.m. and nearing 28% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE at 5-10 mph becoming N-NW at 8-12 mph after 4 p.m. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph becoming N-NW 10-15 mph after 4 p.m. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet by 9 a.m. and increasing to 5000 feet by 1 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 10th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Dry SW flow aloft develops slowly on Wednesday, providing another sunny day with temperatures above seasonal averages. Onshore flow will remain weakened, but transport winds should be more NW and could provide better conditions for field burning if gradients become favorable after noon. Thursday will see SW flow aloft shift to more W-SW and increase by the afternoon, strengthening onshore flow. This trend continues through Friday, with the W-SW flow lowering temperatures to seasonal averages ahead of the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 28672 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 11 11:40:37 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 11 Jul 2017 18:40:37 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 11th, 2017 (Noon Update) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 11, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 9 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weak onshore flow aloft is keeping high pressure and stiff northerly winds in place over the Silverton Hills today. The gradient remains negative and northerly transport winds will persist through the afternoon, delaying the sea breeze until this evening. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies with afternoon haze. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 81?F). Relative humidity: Below 50% and dropping to 28% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE at 5-10 mph becoming N at 5-10 mph after 1 p.m. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph. Mixing height: Above 5000 feet by 1 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:58 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 10th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Dry SW flow aloft develops slowly on Wednesday, providing another sunny day with temperatures above seasonal averages. Onshore flow will remain weakened, but transport winds should be more NW and could provide better conditions for field burning if gradients become favorable after noon. Thursday will see SW flow aloft shift to more W-SW and increase by the afternoon, strengthening onshore flow. This trend continues through Friday, with the W-SW flow lowering temperatures to seasonal averages ahead of the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 28672 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 12 08:50:45 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2017 15:50:45 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 12, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED JUL 12, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 9 a.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Ridging aloft supporting high pressure over the Silverton Hills begins to break down today as a disturbance forms out over the Pacific Ocean. Mixing improves quickly under clear skies and July sunshine, and NW transport winds increase ahead of the afternoon sea breeze arriving. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 9 a.m. and nearing 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N at 5-10 mph becoming NW at 8-12 mph after 4 p.m. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph becoming W-NW 10-15 mph after 12 p.m. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet by 9 a.m. and increasing to 5000 feet by 1 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 11th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: There will be few changes to the weather pattern moving into the weekend. Temperatures will glide back down below seasonal averages as onshore flow slowly builds Thursday and again on Saturday. Weak disturbances over the Pacific Ocean will move through on Thursday and Saturday as well, enhancing the afternoon sea breeze with W-NW transport winds, and helping gradients stack favorably for smoke evacuation & dispersion. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 28672 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 12 11:42:43 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2017 18:42:43 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 12, 2017 (Noon Update) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 12, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Ridging aloft supporting high pressure over the Silverton Hills is breaking down today as a disturbance forms out over the Pacific Ocean. Mixing is well-developed already, and NW transport winds increase ahead of the afternoon sea breeze arriving. TODAY'S FORECAST: Clear skies becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Below 50% now and nearing 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N at 5-10 mph becoming NW at 8-12 mph after 4 p.m. Transport winds: NW 5-10 mph becoming W-NW 10-15 mph after 12 p.m. Mixing height: Near 4000 feet currently and increasing to 5000 feet by 1 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 11th: High 82?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: There will be few changes to the weather pattern moving into the weekend. Temperatures will glide back down below seasonal averages as onshore flow slowly builds Thursday and again on Saturday. Weak disturbances over the Pacific Ocean will move through on Thursday and Saturday as well, enhancing the afternoon sea breeze with W-NW transport winds, and helping gradients stack favorably for smoke evacuation & dispersion. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29184 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 13 08:39:05 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2017 15:39:05 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 13, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED JUL 12, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 12 p.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weakening disturbance aloft near the Oregon coast has brought marine air and cloudiness to the Willamette Valley this morning. This has reduced onshore flow as the gradient became negatively stacked, and cloud cover will restrict the heating needed to develop mixing until mid-afternoon. The pace with which we go from breaking to baking will be the limiting factor today for field burning opportunities. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 12 p.m. and nearing 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Variable 5 mph or less becoming N-NW 5-10 mph after 1 p.m. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph throughout the day. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet by 1 p.m. and increasing to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 12th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Another disturbance aloft over the Pacific Ocean gains strength on Friday, pushing surface high pressure into NW Oregon where it will block morning clouds from entering the Willamette Valley. This will allow for more heating, more mixing and better gradients that may allow field burning ahead of Friday afternoon's sea breeze. Saturday and Sunday will see the Pacific disturbance shift NE into Washington state and southern Canada, with marine pushes bringing morning clouds to the Silverton Hills each day that keep temperatures just below seasonal averages with elevated humidity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29184 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 13 08:51:49 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2017 15:51:49 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] [CORRECTION] Field Burning Forecast - July 13, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:50 AM PDT WED JUL 12, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 1 p.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weakening disturbance aloft near the Oregon coast has brought marine air and cloudiness to the Willamette Valley this morning. This has reduced onshore flow as the gradient became negatively stacked, and cloud cover will restrict the heating needed to develop mixing until mid-afternoon. The pace with which we go from breaking to baking will be the limiting factor today for field burning opportunities. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 12 p.m. and nearing 45% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Variable 5 mph or less becoming N-NW 5-10 mph after 1 p.m. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph throughout the day. Mixing height: Above 3000 feet by 1 p.m. and increasing to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 12th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Another disturbance aloft over the Pacific Ocean gains strength on Friday, pushing surface high pressure into NW Oregon where it will block morning clouds from entering the Willamette Valley. This will allow for more heating, more mixing and better gradients that may allow field burning ahead of Friday afternoon's sea breeze. Saturday and Sunday will see the Pacific disturbance shift NE into Washington state and southern Canada, with marine pushes bringing morning clouds to the Silverton Hills each day that keep temperatures just below seasonal averages with elevated humidity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29184 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 13 11:38:38 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2017 18:38:38 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 13, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 12, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 1 p.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Last night's marine push maintains a strong grip on the Silverton Hills today. The clouds have thinned slightly over north Marion County, but cool & humid air remains in place with reduced mixing conditions and a negatively-stacked gradient from Newport to Redmond. A window for field burning does not appear likely for this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy becoming Partly Cloudy late afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 76?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Below 60% now and nearing 36% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Variable 5 mph or less becoming N-NW 5-10 mph after 3 p.m. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph throughout the day. Mixing height: 3000 feet now and increasing to 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:57 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 12th: High 85?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 40) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Another disturbance aloft over the Pacific Ocean gains strength on Friday, pushing surface high pressure into NW Oregon where it will block morning clouds from entering the Willamette Valley. This will allow for more heating, more mixing and better gradients that may allow field burning ahead of Friday afternoon's sea breeze. Saturday and Sunday will see the Pacific disturbance shift NE into Washington state and southern Canada, with marine pushes bringing morning clouds to the Silverton Hills each day that keep temperatures just below seasonal averages with elevated humidity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29184 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 14 08:53:37 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2017 15:53:37 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] fbs0714a.docx Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT FRI JUL 14, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 1 p.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry and stable SW flow and aloft continues this morning. The biggest changes are warmer air aloft and considerably weaker onshore flow. With no morning clouds, valley temperatures will climb into the mid-80s later today. Even with warmer air aloft, strong surface heating should push mixing heights above 3000 feet this afternoon. Onshore gradients are expected to strengthen this afternoon and possibly turn favorable for field-burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5 mph this morning; becoming NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 5-10 mph this morning; NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 13th: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: An approaching upper-level trough will strengthen the onshore flow over the weekend, cooling temperatures back to near average with some morning clouds. However, no precipitation is expected. A dry SW flow aloft is expected to continue to bring mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures next week. Varying degrees of onshore flow may create burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0714a.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: fbs0714a.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 14 11:34:07 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2017 18:34:07 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:30 AM PDT FRI JUL 14, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 1 p.m. until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry and stable SW flow aloft is bringing clear skies to virtually all of Oregon today. Weak onshore gradients should become favorably stacked later this afternoon, as sunny skies warm valley temperatures into the mid-80s. Light north winds are expected to back to the NW later this afternoon, which may provide a burning opportunity. Today's first PIBAL will be at 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny. Salem's high temperature today will be near 86?F (average is 82?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5 mph...becoming NW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph...becoming NW 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 1 p.m. and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:56 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 13th: High 78?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 45) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A passing upper-level trough will strengthen the onshore flow over the weekend, cooling temperatures back to near average with some morning clouds. However, no precipitation is expected. A dry SW flow aloft is expected to continue to bring mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures next week. Varying degrees of onshore flow may provide favorable burning conditions. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 17 08:43:13 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2017 15:43:13 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 17, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 17, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry disturbance aloft approaches Oregon and will disrupt onshore flow at the surface in the Willamette Valley. Gradients are almost flat currently, but the timing of this incoming disturbance is the limiting factor today for possible field burning ahead of a marine push. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 10:30 a.m. and to near 34% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 7-12 mph this morning; shifting N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 10 a.m. and to 4500 feet by 2 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:54 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 16th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Unsettled weather persists through the week for the Silverton Hills, as a disturbance over the Pacific Ocean pushes weak fronts into Oregon. Marine cloud cover will move into the Willamette Valley during evenings and linger through late morning on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance gathers moisture by Wednesday night and moves across the Willamette Valley Thursday morning with wetting rains near 0.25 inches before mid-day. The influx of cooler marine air this week keeps temperatures below seasonal averages. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 28672 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 17 11:43:39 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2017 18:43:39 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 17, 2017 (Noon Update) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 17, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry disturbance aloft approaches Oregon and will disrupt onshore flow at the surface in the Willamette Valley. Gradients are flat, but trends indicate positive stacking by mid-afternoon, possibly creating a later field burning window ahead of a marine push. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Below 45% currently and dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 7-12 mph currently; shifting N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 5-10 mph currently; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3,000 feet now and rising to 4,500 feet by 4 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:54 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 16th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 68) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Unsettled weather persists through the week for the Silverton Hills, as a disturbance over the Pacific Ocean pushes weak fronts into Oregon. Marine cloud cover will move into the Willamette Valley during evenings and linger through late morning on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The disturbance gathers moisture by Wednesday night and moves across the Willamette Valley Thursday morning with rainfall less than 0.10 inches by mid-day. The influx of cooler marine air this week keeps temperatures below seasonal averages. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 18 08:55:18 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2017 15:55:18 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 18, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 18, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A disturbance over the Pacific Ocean creates SW flow aloft, allowing onshore flow at the surface to redevelop. Gradients are balanced, mixing becomes favorable around noon, but wind direction will be a limiting factor with N-NE transport winds currently that will turn NW later this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 10 a.m. and dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; shifting NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 5-10 mph this morning; NW 10 mph this afternoon shifting to SW at top of Mixed Layer. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 12 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 17th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft persists through the week for the Silverton Hills, as a disturbance over the Pacific Ocean pushes weak fronts into Oregon. Onshore flow builds with W-SW flow aloft and indicates more W-NW surface flow Wednesday afternoon across the Willamette Valley ahead of a marine push. The disturbance gathers moisture by Wednesday night and moves across the Willamette Valley Thursday morning with patchy fog & drizzle that clears out by early afternoon. W flow aloft with onshore flow on Friday appears particularly suited for field burning operations, if gradients stack favorably through the day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 18 11:46:07 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2017 18:46:07 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 18, 2017 (Noon Update) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 18, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A disturbance over the Pacific Ocean creates SW flow aloft, allowing onshore flow at the surface to redevelop. Gradients have become positively stacked and mixing heights have steadily climbed higher, but wind direction remains the limiting factor to allow field burning this afternoon. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 84?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Below 45% now and dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 5-10 mph and shifting NW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NW 5-10 mph becoming NW 10 mph this afternoon; direction hooks to W-SW at top of Mixed Layer. Mixing height: 3,000 feet currently, rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:53 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 17th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft persists through mid-week, as a disturbance over the Pacific Ocean pushes weak fronts into Oregon. Transport winds become W-SW, with W-NW surface flow Wednesday afternoon ahead of a marine push. The disturbance gathers moisture by Wednesday night and moves across the Willamette Valley Thursday morning with patchy fog & drizzle that clears out by early afternoon. A flat ridge produces W flow aloft, with onshore flow increasing ahead of the weekend. Mixing and wind direction may support field burning Friday afternoon, but model guidance this far out is subject to change and this period will be continuously evaluated as the week proceeds. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29184 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 19 08:46:05 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2017 15:46:05 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED JUL 19, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: This morning's sounding over Salem showing a few degrees of cooling below 7000 feet, compared to Tuesday, and continued SW flow aloft. Onshore pressure gradients are slightly negatively stacked this morning but should become favorable this afternoon, as an approaching upper-level trough increases the onshore flow. Westerly transport winds and high afternoon mixing heights should be quite favorable for field-burning, once gradients become positively stacked. A significant marine push is expected tonight. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and slightly cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 82?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 50% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5 mph this morning; becoming W 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: SW 5 mph this morning; becoming W 5-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 11 a.m. and to 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:52 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 18th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Thursday will be cooler with widespread morning clouds and a chance for local drizzle. Afternoon clearing will help temperatures reach the upper 70s, but strongly negative gradient-stacking will inhibit burning opportunities. Dry westerly flow aloft will maintain onshore flow at the surface on Friday with some morning clouds and afternoon sunshine. Westerly transport winds could create a burning opportunity, if onshore gradients can become balanced. Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend, with temperatures possibly climbing to near 90?F. Dry conditions should prevail through next week with renewed onshore flow keeping temperatures moderate and likely creating more burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 19 11:50:01 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2017 18:50:01 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:50 AM PDT WED JUL 19, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An approaching upper-level trough will increase the onshore flow and provide excellent mixing this afternoon. Slightly negative gradient-stacking is expected to turn positive by mid-afternoon, creating a favorable burning window that could last into early evening. Transport winds will be closely monitored, beginning at noon. A significant marine push is expected tonight. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and slightly cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 82?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: W 5-10 mph. Transport winds: W 5-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:52 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 18th: High 86?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Thursday will be cooler with strong onshore flow resulting in widespread morning marine clouds, but precipitation will be limited to spotty light drizzle. Afternoon clearing will help temperatures reach the upper 70s, but strongly-negative gradient-stacking will inhibit burning opportunities. Dry westerly flow aloft will maintain onshore flow on Friday with some morning clouds and afternoon sunshine. Westerly transport winds could create a burning opportunity, if pressure-gradients can become balanced. Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend, with temperatures possibly climbing to near 90?F. Dry conditions should prevail through next week, with renewed onshore flow cooling temperatures back to near average and likely creating more burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 20 08:35:18 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2017 15:35:18 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:30 AM PDT THU JUL 20, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A weak upper-level trough induced a marine push last night. Low clouds blanket the coast and all of NW Oregon this morning. Drizzle has been falling along much of the coast and in areas of the Willamette Valley. The marine layer is about 6000 feet thick, so clouds will be slow to clear this afternoon. As a result, temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 70s. Although mixing heights and transport winds will be favorable for burning today, negative gradient-stacking should persist, which would promote down-mixing of smoke. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning with areas of drizzle. Clearing this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph in the late-afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10 mph; becoming W 10 mph in the late-afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 11 a.m. and to 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 19th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The air mass will begin warming on Friday, with weak westerly flow aloft and decreasing onshore flow. Morning clouds will be less extensive and give way to more sunshine, allowing valley temperatures to climb back into the 80s. Westerly transport winds and good mixing may create a burning opportunity, if negative gradient-stacking can be overcome by daytime heating. Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend, with high temperatures climbing to around 90?F. Increasing SW flow aloft will introduce a chance of thundershowers across SW Oregon by Sunday night and Monday. It is possible that these storms could make it as far north as the Willamette Valley. A marine push may create a burning opportunity Tuesday afternoon, with a generally dry onshore flow pattern expected to bring moderate temperatures later next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 20 11:54:53 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2017 18:54:53 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT THU JUL 20, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Low clouds continue to blanket NW Oregon, at midday, in the wake of last night's marine push. An upper-level trough will promote good daytime mixing and maintain the strong onshore flow today. Skies should slowly clear this afternoon, with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 70s. Mixing heights and transport winds are favorable for burning today. However, negatively gradient-stacking would cause smoke plumes to down-mix. Gradients are unlikely to balance-out this afternoon but will be closely monitored. TODAY'S FORECAST: Gradually clearing skies this afternoon. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph in the late-afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10 mph; becoming W 10 mph in the late-afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 19th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The air mass will begin warming on Friday, with weak westerly flow aloft and decreasing onshore flow. Morning clouds will be less extensive and give way sooner to sunshine, allowing valley temperatures to climb back into the 80s. Westerly transport winds and good mixing may create a burning opportunity, if negative gradient-stacking can be balanced by daytime heating. Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend, with high temperatures climbing to around 90?F. Increasing SSW flow aloft will introduce a chance of thundershowers across SW Oregon by Sunday night and Monday. It is possible that these storms could make it as far north as the Willamette Valley. If not, increasing onshore flow may create a burning opportunity. A marine push will initiate a cooling trend Tuesday afternoon and possibly create a significant burning opportunity. A moderate onshore flow pattern is expected to produce morning clouds with afternoon sunshine later next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 20 11:58:25 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2017 18:58:25 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT THU JUL 20, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from now until 7 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Low clouds continue to blanket NW Oregon, at midday, in the wake of last night's marine push. An upper-level trough will promote good daytime mixing and maintain the strong onshore flow today. Skies should slowly clear this afternoon, with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 70s. Mixing heights and transport winds are favorable for burning today. However, negatively gradient-stacking would cause smoke plumes to down-mix. Gradients are unlikely to balance-out this afternoon but will be closely monitored. TODAY'S FORECAST: Gradually clearing skies this afternoon. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 78?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: SW 5-10 mph; becoming NW 5-10 mph in the late-afternoon. Transport winds: SW 10 mph; becoming W 10 mph in the late-afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 6000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:51 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 19th: High 83?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 60) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The air mass will begin warming on Friday, with weak westerly flow aloft and decreasing onshore flow. Morning clouds will be less extensive and give way sooner to sunshine, allowing valley temperatures to climb back into the 80s. Westerly transport winds and good mixing may create a burning opportunity, if negative gradient-stacking can be balanced by daytime heating. Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend, with high temperatures climbing to around 90?F. Increasing SSW flow aloft will introduce a chance of thundershowers across SW Oregon by Sunday night and Monday. It is possible that these storms could make it as far north as the Willamette Valley. If not, increasing onshore flow may create a burning opportunity. A marine push will initiate a cooling trend Tuesday afternoon and possibly create a significant burning opportunity. A moderate onshore flow pattern is expected to produce morning clouds with afternoon sunshine later next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 21 08:57:44 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 21 Jul 2017 15:57:44 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT FRI JUL 21, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Weaker westerly flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface have produced little in the way of marine low clouds this morning. A full day of sunshine and warmer air aloft will allow temperatures to climb back into the 80s this afternoon. Westerly transport winds and good mixing should be favorable for burning. However, there is still some negative gradient-stacking this morning, which will need to get balanced by daytime heating. Light transport wind speeds may also be a limiting factor for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light this morning; W 5 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: W 5 mph this morning; W 5-10 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 11 a.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:50 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 20th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend, with high temperatures climbing to around 90?F. Increasing SSW flow aloft will introduce a chance of thundershowers across SW Oregon late Sunday...possibly extending northward into the Willamette Valley Monday and Tuesday. Increasing onshore flow should push the thundershower threat east of the region by Wednesday. A pattern of morning clouds with afternoon sunshine and moderate temperatures is expected late next week. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 21 11:55:32 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 21 Jul 2017 18:55:32 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT FRI JUL 21, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Only patchy morning clouds developed in the Willamette Valley this morning, due to weakening westerly flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface. Sunny skies and warming air aloft will allow temperatures to climb into the 80s this afternoon. The mixing height, wind direction, and pressure gradient-stacking should all be favorable for burning today, but light wind speeds may be a limiting factor. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and warmer. Salem's high temperature today will be near 83?F (average is 83?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Light...becoming W 5-10 mph later this afternoon. Transport winds: W 5-10 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:50 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 20th: High 77?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 50) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend, with high temperatures climbing to around 90?F. Increasing SSW flow aloft will introduce a chance of thundershowers across SW Oregon late Sunday. There is a slight chance that the thundershower activity will migrate as far north as Salem, on Monday, but it should stay mostly south and east of the region. A marine push is expected to initiate a cooling trend on Tuesday, pushing any threat of thundershowers east of the Cascades and possibly creating a significant burning opportunity. Onshore flow will bring morning clouds and afternoon sunshine the remainder of next week with moderate temperatures. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 24 08:35:12 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2017 15:35:12 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 24, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 24, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommend times for agricultural burning are from 8:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance south of the Willamette Valley produces strong north winds today, and increasing clouds over the Cascades threaten to keep gradients negatively stacked today. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages as open skies allow maximum heating in the morning hours today. The lack of humidity this afternoon combined with breezy winds are likely to trigger State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 91?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping below 60% by 10 a.m. and dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph this morning; shifting N 15-25 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 15-20 mph this morning; N 15-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 12 p.m. and near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:47 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 23rd: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, as the disturbance over southern Oregon continues to produces afternoon thundershowers over the Cascades and prolong the heat wave over the Willamette Valley. This driving feature will no longer influence local weather patterns after sunset Wednesday as marine clouds push in overnight. W flow aloft veers to SW ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance, and onshore surface flow recovers to produce positive gradients; morning clouds provide shade and keep temperatures closer to seasonal averages with increased humidity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 24 11:52:35 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2017 18:52:35 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 24, 2017 (Noon Update) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 24, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommend times for agricultural burning are now through 7:00 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance south of the Willamette Valley produces strong north winds today, but gradients have improved and are now positively stacked. Wind speeds and direction remain the limiting factor, and do not appear likely to improve enough for field burning opportunities today. The low humidity this afternoon combined with breezy winds are likely to trigger State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban conditions. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 91?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping near 25% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Building to N 13-17 mph with occasional gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 15-25 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet currently and rising near 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:47 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 23rd: High 89?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 100) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Little change expected for Tuesday, as the disturbance over southern Oregon remains locked in place until Wednesday. Gusty winds from the north and weakened onshore flow may limit the possibilities for field burning again Tuesday, but models are more optimistic that W-NW onshore flow returns Wednesday afternoon ahead of a marine push; this favorable scenario for field burning operations will be further investigated as additional data is collected now through Tuesday afternoon. W flow aloft veers to SW ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance, and onshore surface flow recovers to produce positive gradients; morning clouds provide shade and keep temperatures closer to seasonal averages with increased humidity. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29696 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 25 08:46:33 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2017 15:46:33 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 25, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 25, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance south of the Willamette Valley has shifted further inland and weakened, allowing surface onshore flow to recover earlier than previously expected. Gradients are already positively stacked, and will be the limiting factor to closely monitor today for potential field burning opportunities. Mixing conditions should develop easily, and if onshore flow increases enough, will shift N winds to NW this afternoon. This pivot in wind direction will slow wind speeds as surface and transport winds move out of alignment, simultaneously removing the threat of State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban criteria being triggered again by lower humidity and breezy conditions. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 92?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently below 60% and dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 3-7 mph this morning; shifting NW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph this morning; NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 10 a.m. and over 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 24th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 65) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level disturbance south of the Willamette Valley continues to weaken tonight and shift into SE Oregon, allowing onshore surface flow to continue building for the next several days. Marine clouds intrude Wednesday morning over the southern valley, but merely raise the humidity over the Silverton Hills. Onshore gradients are expected to become positive by mid-day, with NW surface winds becoming SW flow aloft ahead of a stronger marine push Wednesday evening. Marine clouds linger longer on Thursday, keeping humidity elevated and returning temperatures closer to seasonal averages. An approaching disturbance Thursday evening will form clouds over the Cascades, and may prevent positive onshore gradients from developing on Friday. Timing of this feature's arrival will be continuously evaluated, as an earlier arrival would help scour out stubborn marine air and may provide field burning opportunities ahead of the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jul 25 11:40:34 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2017 18:40:34 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 25, 2017 (Noon Update) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 25, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance south of the Willamette Valley has shifted further inland and weakened, allowing surface onshore flow to recover earlier than previously expected. Gradients have remained positively stacked, allowing surface flow to begin veering more N-NW. With these favorable developments, wind speeds have become our limiting factor to monitor as conditions remain just outside of State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban criteria due to low humidity. TODAY'S FORECAST: Mostly Sunny becoming Partly Cloudy this afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 92?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently 45% and dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NW 3-7 mph shifting NW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: 3000 feet currently rising over 4000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:46 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Monday, July 24th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 65) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level disturbance south of the Willamette Valley continues to weaken tonight and shift into SE Oregon, allowing onshore surface flow to continue building for the next several days. Marine clouds intrude Wednesday morning over the southern valley, but merely raise the humidity over the Silverton Hills. Onshore gradients are expected to become positive by mid-day, with NW surface winds becoming SW flow aloft ahead of a stronger marine push Wednesday evening. Marine clouds linger longer on Thursday, keeping humidity elevated and returning temperatures closer to seasonal averages. An approaching disturbance Thursday evening will form clouds over the Cascades, and may prevent positive onshore gradients from developing on Friday. Timing of this feature's arrival will be continuously evaluated, as an earlier arrival would help scour out stubborn marine air and may provide field burning opportunities ahead of the weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 26 08:48:42 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2017 15:48:42 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 26, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT TUE JUL 25, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance approaches the northern coast today, enhancing surface onshore flow throughout the Willamette Valley. Mixing conditions develop before noon and increase steadily as the afternoon progresses. Gradients are again positively stacked early in the day and will strengthen, but the gradient along the Columbia River remains stronger than mid-valley flow, producing N winds. Wind direction remains the limiting factor for field burning today, and the Columbia River gradient will be monitored closely for signs of weakening and a resulting wind shift in the Silverton Hills. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies with afternoon haze. Salem's high temperature today will be near 89?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently below 60% and dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-7 mph this morning; shifting NW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph this morning; W-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 10 a.m. and over 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 25th: High 93?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Weakened upper-level disturbances push through on Thursday with SW flow aloft, and surface flow remains onshore with a mild sea breeze bringing more clouds into Willamette Valley overnight. Field burning opportunities may be limited if stubborn marine air can't be pushed out by these transient features aloft. W flow aloft develops overnight into Friday as one of these disturbances enters the southern Willamette Valley, which should allow mixing and surface flow to improve rapidly after sunrise; it will also help build clouds over the Cascades Friday afternoon, causing positive gradients to fade out as mountain showers push into central Oregon, so potential field burning would begin and likely end early ahead of the weekend. Upper-level ridging builds over Oregon for the weekend, helping to warm the atmosphere and elevate temperatures back above seasonal averages. Mild mornings and balmy afternoons persist under mostly sunny skies, with onshore flow producing early evening sea breezes to close out the month of July. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs0726a.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30720 bytes Desc: fbs0726a.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 26 09:33:48 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2017 16:33:48 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 26, 2017 (CORRECTION) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT WED JUL 26, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance approaches the northern coast today, enhancing surface onshore flow throughout the Willamette Valley. Mixing conditions develop before noon and increase steadily as the afternoon progresses. Gradients are again positively stacked early in the day and will strengthen, but the gradient along the Columbia River remains stronger than mid-valley flow, producing N winds. Wind direction remains the limiting factor for field burning today, and the Columbia River gradient will be monitored closely for signs of weakening and a resulting wind shift in the Silverton Hills. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies with afternoon haze. Salem's high temperature today will be near 89?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently below 60% and dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-7 mph this morning; shifting NW 7-12 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph this morning; W-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 10 a.m. and over 5000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 25th: High 93?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Weakened upper-level disturbances push through on Thursday with SW flow aloft, and surface flow remains onshore with a mild sea breeze bringing more clouds into Willamette Valley overnight. Field burning opportunities may be limited if stubborn marine air can't be pushed out by these transient features aloft. W flow aloft develops overnight into Friday as one of these disturbances enters the southern Willamette Valley, which should allow mixing and surface flow to improve rapidly after sunrise; it will also help build clouds over the Cascades Friday afternoon, causing positive gradients to fade out as mountain showers push into central Oregon, so potential field burning would begin and likely end early ahead of the weekend. Upper-level ridging builds over Oregon for the weekend, helping to warm the atmosphere and elevate temperatures back above seasonal averages. Mild mornings and balmy afternoons persist under mostly sunny skies, with onshore flow producing early evening sea breezes to close out the month of July. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29184 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jul 26 11:40:18 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2017 18:40:18 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Tom Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT WED JUL 26, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level disturbance approaches the northern coast today, enhancing surface onshore flow throughout the Willamette Valley. Mixing conditions will continue to develop through late afternoon and persist into the evening as the disturbance nears. Positive gradient stacking is developing mid-valley, and onshore flow up the Columbia River has weakened west of the Gorge, indicating that a mid-valley marine push is more likely tonight. Field burning possibilities remain, though the timeframe will be later in the day as a result. TODAY'S FORECAST: Partly Cloudy skies with afternoon haze. Salem's high temperature today will be near 89?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently 50% and dropping near 30% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-7 mph shifting NW 7-12 mph late afternoon. Transport winds: N 10 mph shifting W-NW 10-15 mph late afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3,000 feet currently and reaching 5,000 feet by 3 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:45 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Tuesday, July 25th: High 93?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Weakened upper-level disturbances push through on Thursday with SW flow aloft, and surface flow remains onshore with a mild sea breeze bringing more clouds into Willamette Valley overnight. Field burning opportunities may be limited if stubborn marine air can't be pushed out by these transient features aloft. W flow aloft develops overnight into Friday as one of these disturbances enters the southern Willamette Valley, which should allow mixing and surface flow to improve rapidly after sunrise; it will also help build clouds over the Cascades Friday afternoon, causing positive gradients to fade out as mountain showers push into central Oregon, so potential field burning would begin and likely end early ahead of the weekend. Upper-level ridging builds over Oregon for the weekend, helping to warm the atmosphere and elevate temperatures back above seasonal averages. Mild mornings and balmy afternoons persist under mostly sunny skies, with onshore flow producing early evening sea breezes to close out the month of July. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 27 08:36:49 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 27 Jul 2017 15:36:49 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:35 AM PDT THU JUL 27, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: The upper-level trough that brought thundershowers to central Oregon on Wednesday pushed into Idaho overnight. Increasing WSW flow aloft has stabilized the air mass but is inducing a marine push into NW Oregon this morning. Low clouds blanket the northern and central Willamette Valley with areas of mist being reported in the Salem area. The deep marine layer will provide good mixing today. However, gradient-stacking has turned negative and should become even more negatively-stacked through this morning. As skies clear this afternoon, gradients will improve but may not balance out. Transport winds may also become too northerly to allow for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Cloudy this morning with afternoon clearing. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by noon and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: NW 5-10 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NW 10 mph this morning; NNW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around noon and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:44 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 26th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Onshore flow will weaken on Friday. Patchy morning clouds should give way to sunshine and seasonal temperatures. Although gradient-stacking will likely become more balanced, northerly transport winds may not allow for burning. Sunny and warmer weather is expected this weekend through the first half of next week, with temperatures climbing back into the lower 90s by Monday. There is hope for a burning opportunity around the middle of next week, if a weak weather system can produce enough onshore flow at the right time of day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36864 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jul 27 11:43:04 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 27 Jul 2017 18:43:04 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:40 AM PDT THU JUL 27, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: Low clouds continue to blanket the northern Willamette Valley at midday. Due to an ongoing marine push, skies will be slow to clear this afternoon. Negative gradient-stacking and northerly winds are likely to persist this afternoon, making burning unlikely. A PIBAL is scheduled for 2 p.m., but it will be postponed, if skies are still cloudy at that time. TODAY'S FORECAST: Afternoon clearing. Cooler. Salem's high temperature today will be near 81?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 60% by 1 p.m. and to near 40% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph. Transport winds: NNW 10-15 mph. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet by 2 p.m. and to 5000 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:44 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Wednesday, July 26th: High 91?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 75) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Onshore flow will weaken on Friday. Patchy morning clouds should give way to sunshine and seasonal temperatures. Although gradient-stacking should become more balanced, transport winds may stay too northerly to allow for burning. Sunny and warmer weather is expected this weekend and the first half of next week, with temperatures climbing back into the lower 90s by Monday. There is hope for a burning opportunity, around the middle of next week, if we get an increase in onshore flow at the right time of day. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 28 08:55:22 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2017 15:55:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:55 AM PDT FRI JUL 28, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry and stable WSW flow aloft is continuing over Oregon. This morning's sounding over Salem showed an almost identical temperature profile to yesterday morning. The difference is that onshore flow is much weaker today. With an absence of marine low clouds, sunny skies will warm surface temperatures to seasonal averages this afternoon, possibly balancing this morning's negative gradient stacking. However, transport winds may stay too northerly to allow for burning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Patchy morning clouds, then sunny and seasonably warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to 60% by 11 a.m. and to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 5-10 mph this morning; NNW 5-10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: NNE 10 mph this morning; NNW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around noon and to 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:43 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 27th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 70) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge will bring sunny and warmer weather this weekend through at least the first half of next week. Temperatures will warm to near 90?F over the weekend and could peak near 100?F by next Wednesday. Increasing onshore flow is expected to initiate a cooling trend late next week. It is too soon to tell if that will create any burning opportunities. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills AM Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jul 28 11:55:12 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2017 18:55:12 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:55 AM PDT FRI JUL 28, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Prep burning is allowed from noon until 2 p.m. with a 50 acre limit. WEATHER DISCUSSION: A dry and stable WSW flow aloft will bring a full day of sunshine with temperatures warming into the mid-80s. Daytime heating may balance the existing negative onshore gradient stacking later this afternoon. However, transport winds may be too northerly and/or become too brisk to allow for burning. A PIBAL scheduled for 2 p.m. TODAY'S FORECAST: Sunny and seasonably warm. Salem's high temperature today will be near 85?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Dropping to near 35% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: Becoming NNW 5-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: Becoming NNW 10-20 mph this afternoon. Mixing height: Near 3000 feet at noon; rising to around 4500 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:43 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Thursday, July 27th: High 81?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 90) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A building upper-level ridge will bring sunny and hot weather this weekend through much of next week. Temperatures will warm to near 90?F by Sunday and possibly to near 100?F early next week. As the upper-level ridge progresses east of the region, increasing SSW flow aloft will initiate a cooling trend later next week and introduce a threat of thundershowers. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Pete Parsons ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc Type: application/msword Size: 36352 bytes Desc: Silverton Hills Midday Forecast_Pete.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 31 08:40:22 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2017 15:40:22 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 31, 2017 Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 8:45 AM PDT MON JUL 31, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge over eastern Oregon will create unfavorable conditions for field burning, as mixing will be suppressed and temperatures in the Willamette Valley will soar above seasonal averages. Flat gradients over the Silverton Hills allow positive gradients along the Columbia River to dominate, keeping surface & transport winds northerly and increasing with afternoon heating. High temperatures and low humidity, as well as gusty afternoon winds, all increase the possibility of meeting State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban criteria later this afternoon and into the early evening hours. A Red Flag Warning for fire danger goes into effect just after sunset tonight, at 9:00 p.m. for the entire Willamette Valley, and will be in effect until 4 a.m tomorrow morning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Hazy under Clear Skies. Salem's high temperature today will be near 96?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently below 60% and dropping near 22% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N 8-12 mph this morning; shifting N-NE 10-15 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 15-20 mph this morning and through the afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 2 p.m. and reaching 3200 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:39 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 30th: High 92?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 64) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge in SE Oregon remains locked in place for the next several days, as a heat wave develops across Oregon. Easterly winds develop as offshore flow sets up over the Cascades, with temperatures elevated and humidity very low in the afternoon hours Tuesday, Wednesday, and even into Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service in Portland for the Willamette Valley until 6 a.m. Friday. These conditions will be unsuitable for fair smoke ventilation until the time of day when fire control & safety become an even greater concern. Field burning operations appear unlikely and this situation may well persist into the coming weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbs.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 29184 bytes Desc: fbs.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 31 09:19:47 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2017 16:19:47 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 31, 2017 Message-ID: JEFFERSON COUNTY FIELD-BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 9:30 AM PDT MON JUL 31, 2017 TODAY'S DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge is building over SE Oregon, suppressing mixing heights today to barely 3,000 feet during the late afternoon. N winds persist at both the surface and transport levels today, with temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday. TODAY'S FORECAST: Hazy under Clear Skies. Madras' Forecast High Today: 97?F (Sunday's High: 91?F; Rainfall: .00") Transport Winds: N at 5-10 mph this morning; N-NW 10-15 mph this afternoon. Mixing Heights: Reaching 3,000 feet by 4 p.m. Relative Humidity: Dropping to near 12% by 3 p.m. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge locks into place and build strength, so there will be little change over the next several days. The hottest day of the week is expected to fall on Thursday afternoon, but the heat wave is likely to persist into the coming weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.68&lon=-121.14861&site=pdt&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. at a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. 4. Ventilation Index (if you want to calculate it) is the height of the mixing layer times the transport wind speed divided by 1000. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For more information, contact ODA at 503-986-4701. Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: fbj.htm.doc Type: application/msword Size: 30208 bytes Desc: fbj.htm.doc URL: From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jul 31 11:40:14 2017 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Field Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2017 18:40:14 +0000 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Field Burning Forecast - July 31, 2017 (Noon Update) Message-ID: SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE 11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 31, 2017 BURN ADVISORY: Recommended times for agricultural burning are from 2 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. Prep burning is not allowed. WEATHER DISCUSSION: An upper-level ridge over eastern Oregon will create unfavorable conditions for field burning. High temperatures and low humidity, as well as gusty N-NE winds, all increase the possibility of meeting State Fire Marshal Burn-Ban criteria later this afternoon and into the early evening hours. A Red Flag Warning for fire danger goes into effect just after sunset tonight, at 9:00 p.m. for the entire Willamette Valley, and will be in effect until 3 a.m Wednesday morning. TODAY'S FORECAST: Hazy under Clear Skies. Salem's high temperature today will be near 96?F (average is 84?F). Relative humidity: Currently below 50% and dropping near 22% by 5 p.m. Surface winds: N-NE 12-18 mph this afternoon. Transport winds: N-NE 15-20 mph through the afternoon. Mixing height: Rising to 3000 feet around 2 p.m. and reaching 3200 feet by 5 p.m. Salem's sunset tonight: 8:39 p.m. (Salem Airport data for Sunday, July 30th: High 92?F; Rainfall: .00") (Maximum Ventilation Index expected today: 64) EXTENDED DISCUSSION: The upper-level ridge in SE Oregon remains locked in place for the next several days, as a heat wave develops across Oregon. Easterly winds develop as offshore flow sets up over the Cascades, with temperatures above 100?F Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday; Thursday afternoon could reach 108?F in the Silverton Hills. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service in Portland for the Willamette Valley until 6 a.m. Friday. These conditions will be unsuitable for fair smoke ventilation until the time of day when fire control & safety become an even greater concern. Field burning operations appear unlikely and this situation may well persist into the coming weekend. The National Weather Service's digital forecast is available at: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Notes: 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and winds less than about 15 mph. 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer (ft) times the transport wind speed (mph) divided by 1000. 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local terrain conditions. This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701. To add/remove your email address from this list, please go to: http://listsmart.osl.state.or.us/mailman/listinfo/willamette-fcst Tom Jenkins, AEM ODF Meteorologist -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... 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