SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, November 4, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



FRIDAY



The massive upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been bringing unseasonably warm temperatures and stagnant ventilation conditions will weaken and shift slightly eastward.  The ridge axis is forecast to stretch from Utah through eastern Montana with a slowly strengthening southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.



The first in a series of progressively stronger weather systems will fall apart along the coastline, with just a few clouds will drifting over the region.  Warm air aloft will continue to suppress mixing heights and locally get mixed to the surface by increasing southerly winds.  That could result in near-record warm surface temperatures.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be mostly marginal.


OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)


The second in a series of weather systems will approach the coastline on Saturday, but it appears as if any significant rainfall will stay offshore until evening.  Clouds will be on the increase over NE Oregon with only a slight chance of light showers.  Southerly winds will keep surface temperatures well above normal.  However, cooling aloft will raise afternoon mixing heights and improve ventilation conditions.



A cold front will likely spread rain across western Oregon by Saturday night and into NE Oregon Sunday morning, with rain continuing through the day. Rainfall amounts should exceed one-quarter of an inch, with up to three-quarters of an inch possible at higher elevations.  Surface temperatures will cool to near normal.  Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to around 4500 feet, by evening, with good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.  Showers will continue through Sunday night.



A flat and transitory upper-level ridge will being some drying on Monday and may suppress afternoon mixing heights slightly.  Surface temperatures will cool to slightly below normal with a continued threat of showers, mainly in the morning.  Transport winds will remain onshore with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2200 - 3200 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 7 - 11 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 7 mph.



SUNDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, November 5, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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