SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

ODF Smoke Management Instructions smi_northeast at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Fri Nov 5 14:37:36 PDT 2010


SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Friday, November 5, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



SATURDAY



The massive upper-level ridge of high pressure responsible for the recent spell of dry, warm and stagnant conditions will continue to weaken and shift eastward.  The ridge axis is forecast to stretch from New Mexico to North Dakota with strengthening southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.



The second in a series of weather systems will approach the coastline on Saturday, but it appears as if any significant rainfall will stay offshore until evening.  Clouds will be on the increase over NE Oregon with only a slight chance of light showers.  Southerly winds will keep surface temperatures well above normal.  However, cooling aloft will raise afternoon mixing heights and improve ventilation conditions.


OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)


A cold front will likely spread rain across NE Oregon late Sunday morning, with rain continuing through the afternoon. Rainfall amounts should exceed one-quarter of an inch, with up to three-quarters of an inch possible at higher elevations.  Surface temperatures will cool to near normal with good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.  Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to around 4500 feet by evening.



Showers will taper off Monday with a flat and transitory upper-level ridge turning the flow aloft west-northwesterly.  Surface temperatures will cool to slightly below normal with snow levels dropping to near 3500 feet.  Transport winds will turn mostly westerly with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.



The next weather system is forecast to move mainly into northern California and southern Oregon on Tuesday.  That would keep snow levels around 3500 feet north to 4000 feet south, but precipitation will be limited.  Transport winds will depend on the exact track of the low-pressure center but appear as if they may turn southerly.  Smoke dispersal conditions should remain fair to good.



2.  DISPERSION



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3200 - 4200 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 14 - 26 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to S to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



SUNDAY

Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 16 - 30 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, November 6, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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