SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, November 6, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



SUNDAY



A cold front will likely spread rain across the region in the morning, with rain turning to showers by late afternoon. Rainfall amounts should exceed one-quarter of an inch, for most areas, with up to three-quarters of an inch possible at higher elevations.  High temperatures will dramatically cool, back to near normal, with good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.  Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to around 4500 feet after dark.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)


Showers will continue Monday, mainly over the mountains, with a drier northwesterly flow aloft bringing some clearing late in the day.  Highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal with snow levels dropping to near 3500 feet.  Transport winds will turn mostly westerly with good smoke dispersal conditions.



Partial clearing is likely Tuesday, with the next weather system not coming onshore until Tuesday afternoon.  Smoke dispersion should be fair to good with mostly southerly transport winds.  Previous computer model forecasts showed this next system headed mainly into southern Oregon and northern California, but now guidance aims it more directly at Oregon.  That will bring rain and snow back into NE Oregon by Tuesday night with snow levels near 4000 feet.



Rain and snow showers will taper off Wednesday, as the weather system pushes into the Rockies.  The snow level will rise to near 4000 feet.  Northwesterly flow aloft will suppress mixing heights, with fair ventilation conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to NW to NNW and increases to 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height below 2500 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 3300 to 4300 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, November 7, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the WSW through NNW of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through NNW of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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