SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, November 18, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



FRIDAY



The axis of a cold upper-level trough will remain just offshore with a moist and very strong west-southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.  Impulses dropping southward into the trough will act to maintain a weak surface low-pressure area off the Washington coast.  Circulation around that system will feed ample moisture onshore for scattered rain and snow showers.  Cold air aloft will keep the snow level in the 2500-3000 foot range. Expect good smoke dispersal conditions with south to southwesterly transport winds.


OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

A fairly strong upper-air disturbance will deepen the offshore trough, with both a surface and upper-air circulation center forecast to strengthen and drift southward, to just off the southern Oregon coast, by Saturday evening.  That will weaken the onshore transport winds and taper off the shower activity.  Snow levels will slowly drop to between 2000 and 3000 feet.  Vertical mixing will remain good, but transport winds will locally become light and variable.



On Sunday, the offshore trough will get forced inland, across northern California, with some rain and snow showers possibly circulating as far north as the extreme southern districts.  Meanwhile, a mostly dry northwesterly flow aloft will bring partial clearing to most areas along with colder temperatures.  Snow levels will drop to near 2000 feet.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair to good with increasing northwesterly transport winds.



By Monday, the flow aloft is forecast to turn northwesterly, in response to a cold upper-level system dropping southward from British Columbia.  The track of this system is still uncertain, but it should bring at least some snow showers to most areas.  It appears likely that it will usher the coldest air of the season into the region.  Snow levels will drop to near valley floors in all zones.  Smoke dispersal conditions should remain fair to good with mostly north to northwesterly transport winds.



2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1800 - 2800 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 16 mph.



Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



SUNDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, November 19, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the S through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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