SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Friday, November 19, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



SATURDAY



A cold upper-level trough will remain anchored over the region with the trough axis staying just offshore. A fairly strong upper-air disturbance will drop southward, into the parent trough, with a corresponding surface low-pressure center developing off the Washington coast and drifting southeastward during the day.



Southerly transport winds will weaken with continued scattered rain and snow showers.  Snow levels will drop to between 2000 and 2500 feet.  Vertical mixing will remain good, but transport winds will locally become light and variable.


OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

A cold upper-level trough will remain over the region, on Sunday.  One disturbance will rotate inland early, across southern Oregon, and may circulate a few snow showers northward over mainly the southern zones.  The northern zones will come under the influence of an even colder northwesterly flow aloft.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair to good with increasing north to northwest transport winds. Another upper-level disturbance is forecast to drop southward, from British Columbia, to just off the Washington and northern Oregon coast, late in the day.  That system appears to have enough moisture to bring an increasing chance of snow to all zones, late Sunday, with snow levels dropping to near the valley floors.



By Monday, the flow aloft is forecast to turn northwesterly, with an even colder upper-level system dropping southward, from British Columbia, into the region.  This system will be accompanied by a surface Arctic cold front, which will usher the coldest air of the season into the region.  The track of this system is still uncertain, but it will likely bring accumulating snow to the entire region with the snow level on the valley floors.  Smoke dispersal conditions should remain fair to good with mostly northwest transport winds.



On Tuesday, a very cold and drier northerly flow is forecast, with sub-freezing temperatures and snow-covered ground likely.  Skies will stay partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers.  Cold low-level air will stabilize the air mass, with light winds and only marginal smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



SATURDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning.  Transport decreases to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to ENE to ESE and decreases to 4 - 8 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the afternoon and evening.

Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 1700 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.  Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



OUTLOOK:



SUNDAY

In the west mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to WNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, November 20, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the ENE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://omls.oregon.gov/pipermail/smi_northeast/attachments/20101119/b5006a81/attachment.html>