SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

ODF Smoke Management Instructions smi_northeast at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Sat Nov 20 14:38:44 PST 2010


SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, November 20, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



SUNDAY



A cold upper-level trough will remain over the region.  One disturbance will rotate across southern Oregon early in the day and will likely circulate some snow showers northward over most zones.  The northern zones will come under the influence of an even colder northwesterly flow aloft.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair to good with increasing northwesterly transport winds. Another upper-level disturbance is forecast to drop southward, to just off the Washington and northern Oregon coast, late in the day.  That should spread snow across the region, Sunday night, with snow levels dropping to near the valley floors.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

On Monday, an even colder upper-level system will drop southward and maintain areas of snow across the region.  This system will be accompanied by a surface Arctic cold front, which will enhance the snowfall and then usher in the coldest air of the season.  Accumulating snow is likely across the entire region with the snow level on the valley floors.  Smoke dispersal conditions should remain fair to good with northwesterly transport winds.



On Tuesday, a very cold and drier northerly flow is forecast, with sub-freezing temperatures and snow-covered ground likely.  Skies will slowly clear with a chance of light snow showers.  Cold low-level air will stabilize the air mass, with only marginal to fair smoke dispersal conditions and decreasing northwesterly transport winds.



Computer models show an upper-level ridge building over the region by Wednesday with a dry and much more stable northerly flow aloft.  That will lead to very cold temperatures and surface-based inversions.  A weak impulse in the northerly flow is forecast to bring some middle and high clouds to the region in the afternoon but will not likely be strong enough to produce any precipitation.  Smoke dispersal conditions will deteriorate to poor.

2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW and increases to 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1700 - 2700 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and increases to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the west transport wind W to WNW at 18 - 32 mph.  In the east transport wind WSW to WNW at 14 - 24 mph.  In the west surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph.  In the east surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, November 21, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SW through N of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the WSW through NNW of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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