SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) Corrected - South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



***Corrected to add mixing heights in Thursday's dispersion forecast***



ISSUED: Wednesday, November 10, 2010       3:10 PM      Pete Parsons



***Due to the Veterans Day holiday, there will be no smoke forecaster available on Thursday, November 11th and no forecasts will be issued.  Friday's burning instructions will be issued early Friday morning.



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



THURSDAY



A transitory upper-level ridge of high pressure will slide over the region, around midday, and then advance eastward into Idaho.  That will bring a dry day with at least partly sunny skies.  A weak cold front will move onshore in the late afternoon and evening.  Ahead of the front, south to southwesterly transport winds will increase in the afternoon.  Warming aloft will suppress mixing heights with marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)


A weak cold front will bring a chance of light showers Thursday night through Friday morning, with snow levels near 4000 feet.  Rainfall totals should be less than one-tenth of an inch.  A flat upper-level ridge, in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, will bring a drying and cool northwesterly flow aloft to the region Friday afternoon.  Westerly transport winds will turn more northerly by afternoon with improved mixing yielding fair smoke dispersal conditions.  A stabilizing air mass will quickly drop mixing heights in the evening.



A broad upper-level ridge will continue to amplify offshore, Saturday and Sunday, with a strong north-northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.  Skies should stay mostly cloudy Saturday with a slight chance of a light shower.  More clearing is forecast for Sunday.  The snow level will slowly rise to above 7000 feet.  Warming aloft will suppress mixing heights with marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY



Mixing height below 500 feet early rising to 800 - 1200 feet by late morning rising to 1500 - 2500 feet during the afternoon, then lowering below 1500 feet in the evening.



Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.





OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, November 11, 2010.

==================================================================



Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the S through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the S through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m.



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:  http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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