SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Wednesday, November 24, 2010       2:40 PM      Nick Yonker



****Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, Friday furlough, and little burning over the weekend, the smoke management office will not be staffed again until Monday, November 29th.  If there are landowners thinking of burning over the holiday weekend, please call to coordinate by 4 p.m. this afternoon.****



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



Upper level ridge is building into the region today and will gradually moderate the arctic air that's been over the state since yesterday.  Ridge will slowly flatten on Thanksgiving as the next frontal system approaches.  Cloud cover today is mainly the result of a strong jet stream coming down from the north which is part of our current cold spell.  Higher clouds should slowly dissipate overnight as the ridge moves inland.  Air mass is stabilizing and may lead to some fog formation in the valleys tomorrow morning.  With residual surface cold air and warming aloft, along with only light wind flow, expect very poor smoke dispersion.



    OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY):



Forming upper level trough in the eastern Pacific will eject a front into the state on Friday, bringing increasing clouds Friday with a chance of moisture overnight into Saturday.  The front will gradually scour the air shed Friday and into early Saturday.  However, the air mass will not likely destabilize completely until Saturday afternoon when the upper level trough arrives.  Snow level will rise to near 5000 ft Thursday night and Friday, then lower to near the surface on Saturday.  Upper trough moves off to the east on Sunday with a minor ridge moving in during the evening.  Air mass should remain mostly unstable on Sunday then stabilize Sunday night.



2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1000 - 2000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to S to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.



SATURDAY

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 22 - 38 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.



SUNDAY

Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft during the morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to NNW at 22 - 38 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, November 25, 2010.

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Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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