SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu Jul 1 14:10:33 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, July 1, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    FRIDAY

A weather disturbance is forecast to rotate through a broad upper-level trough over Washington and Oregon, bringing a chance of showers to the northern zones.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy over the southern zones.  Maximum temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal with strong onshore flow.  Smoke dispersal conditions should be fair to good.

     OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

A few showers could persist over the northern zones through Saturday morning, with at least partly cloudy conditions across the southern zones.  A drier and progressively warmer northwesterly flow aloft is forecast Saturday afternoon through Monday, as the upper-level trough progresses east of the region. Subsidence will suppress mixing heights slightly, especially north, but smoke dispersion should remain fair to good.  The strong onshore flow will turn more northerly Saturday and Sunday, especially over the southern zones.  With increasing sunshine, temperatures will recover to within about 5 degrees of normal Saturday and to near normal on Sunday.  By Monday an upper-level ridge is forecast to approach the coastline with transport winds turning northerly and perhaps offshore, especially south.  Temperatures should climb above normal under mostly clear skies.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, July 2, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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