SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Jul 2 14:35:09 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, July 2, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    SATURDAY

An upper-level trough will slowly push east of the region.  A very weak disturbance is forecast to move across western Oregon, in the drying northwesterly flow aloft.  That will maintain some cloudiness across mainly the northern zones with a slight chance of morning showers over the higher terrain.  Skies will begin clearing in the afternoon, as warming aloft begins to stabilize the atmosphere.  Transport winds will remain onshore but should turn more northerly, especially across the southwestern zones.  Temperatures will begin to recover but remain below normal.  Smoke dispersal conditions should be fair to good.

     OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

A dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through Monday.  Subsidence, associated with an approaching ridge of high pressure, will suppress mixing heights slightly, especially north, but smoke dispersion should remain fair to good.  Continued onshore transport winds will turn more northerly by late Monday, and temperatures will warm to near normal. By Tuesday an upper-level ridge is forecast to build strongly enough over the region to turn the transport winds offshore.  That may allow for burning in areas of the coastal range.  It will also warm temperatures to above normal, and significantly drop humidity levels, under mostly clear skies. The offshore flow may continue on Wednesday, with the latest long-range computer models showing a return to onshore flow, and cooler temperatures, on Thursday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to NE and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW to NNE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to NNE and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4300 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 10 - 18 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NNW to N at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to E at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, July 3, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, and 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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