SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri May 28 14:09:48 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, May 28, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

PLEASE NOTE:  SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECASTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY, MAY 30TH, IN HONOR OF MEMORIAL DAY, AND NO FORECASTER WILL BE AVAILABLE. SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECASTS WILL RESUME ON MONDAY, MAY 31ST.

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    SATURDAY
As a strong upper-level trough finally exits to the east, it will rotate one last disturbance southward across northern and eastern Oregon.  That will keep skies generally cloudy over the northern and eastern zones, through the morning, with a chance of some lingering light rain.  Skies will likely start out partly cloudy across the southern zones.  All areas will see skies slowly clear during the afternoon, as a transitory and weak upper-level ridge brings a drying northwesterly flow aloft to the region.  Temperatures will recover to near normal in the southern zones and to within about 5 degrees of normal in the north.  Cool air aloft and daytime heating will provide fair to good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.  Continued clearing skies will lead to cold overnight temperatures with inversions trapping residual smoke near the ground.

    OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

Most of Sunday will remain dry with increasing clouds and fair to good daytime smoke dispersal conditions.  Temperatures will rebound to near normal across the northern zones and to slightly above normal in the south.  A weak weather system is forecast to bring back a chance of light rain Sunday night and Memorial Day, mainly for the northern zones, along with slightly cooler temperatures. On Tuesday, onshore flow will keep skies mostly cloudy, west of the Cascade crest, with a chance of showers, mainly north.  Down-sloping flow will clear skies east of the Cascade crest.  Temperatures will be slightly below normal across all zones.  Daytime smoke dispersal conditions should remain fair to good.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 2500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 2500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, May 29, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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