SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Sat May 29 14:14:25 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Saturday, May 29, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

NOTE:  IN HONOR OF MEMORIAL DAY, THE SMOKE MANAGEMENT WEATHER OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED ON SUNDAY, MAY 30th, AND NO FORECASTS/INSTRUCTIONS WILL BE ISSUED. NORMAL WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL RESUME ON MONDAY, MAY 31ST.

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    SUNDAY

A weak and transitory upper-level ridge will move east of the region with increasing westerly flow aloft.  The latest computer model guidance shows enough moisture in the flow for a chance of sprinkles, or very light rain, across the northern zones, but the southern zones should stay dry with increasing clouds.  Temperatures will rebound to near normal across the northern zones and to slightly above normal in the south.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair to good.

    OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

A weak weather system is forecast to come onshore Memorial Day with light rain likely across the northern zones and a chance of rain south.  Temperatures will cool back below normal north and to near normal south.  Smoke dispersal conditions will remain fair to good. On Tuesday, a flat and transitory upper-level ridge will turn the flow aloft northwesterly with some drying and stabilizing of the air mass.  Onshore flow will hold lots of marine clouds west of the Cascade crest, with a slight chance of showers, mainly north.  Down-sloping flow should keep skies just partly cloudy east of the Cascade crest.  Temperatures will be slightly below normal across all zones.  Daytime smoke dispersal conditions should be fair to good, but transport winds will be light. The flow aloft is forecast to turn westerly Tuesday night and Wednesday.  A Pacific frontal system will likely spread rain across the northern zones with a chance of rain south.  Transport winds will increase, with a significant southerly component.  Afternoon mixing heights will not be as high on Wednesday, especially north, due to warming aloft and clouds preventing surface heating.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SW to WNW and increases to 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

MONDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming W to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, May 30, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 615

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602, 603, 616 east of R9W, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 616, 617, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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