SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Mon Nov 1 14:09:05 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, November 1, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    TUESDAY
*** Poor to Marginal Smoke Dispersal Conditions ***
A strong high pressure area will be centered over Las Vegas, Nevada on Tuesday while a major trough develops about 1000 miles to the west in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Pacific Ocean.  Upper flow over the area will be west-southwest with very stable conditions developing.  Expect dry weather and decreasing clouds.  Mixing heights will be suppressed and transport winds will be mostly light north or northeasterly.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
*** Poor to Marginal Ventilation Conditions Through the Week ***
By Wednesday the upper high looses strength and drifts east.  Flow aloft backs to southwest.  Transport winds switch to southeast through east most areas.  Maximum mixing heights remain low and nighttime inversions will hold any residual smoke close to the ground.  The upper ridge re-strengthens on Thursday for continued low maximum mixing heights and unfavorable ventilation conditions.   A weakening front brings some light rain to much of the region Friday but maximum mixing heights remain fairly low.  Transport winds become generally west through southwest.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to NE to E at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NE to E at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind increases to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind shifts to E to SE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NE to E at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2400 - 3400 ft.

Transport wind increases to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind increases to E to ESE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 1100 to 2100 ft during the morning lowering below 1000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  In the Cascades surface wind E to SE at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1300 to 2300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, November 2, 2010.

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Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

No burning allowed.  Some burning is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607, 608, 616, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609 and 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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