SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Tue Nov 2 14:23:05 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Tuesday, November 2, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    WEDNESDAY
*** Poor to Marginal Smoke Dispersal Conditions ***
Upper air charts show a broad ridge with its axis stretching from Arizona northward to Alberta and a broad trough in the Gulf of Alaska and the eastern Pacific about 900 miles west of the coast.  Upper flow over Oregon is southwesterly.  Temperatures at about 5000 feet above sea level will be running about 20F warmer than average for this time of year.  The warm air aloft will make the atmosphere very stable for unfavorable smoke dispersal conditions.  Transport winds will be generally from east or southeast (except more southerly in southern zones) and light, while mixing heights will be quite low.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY)
*** Poor to Marginal Ventilation Continues Thursday ***
The upper level pattern slowly shifts east with little improvement for Thursday.  By Friday the upper trough approaches from the west and temperatures aloft will be much cooler helping to improve ventilation.  Mixing heights will be higher on Friday, but transport winds will shift from offshore to onshore during the day.  The shifting wind pattern is difficult to time precisely and we recommend against planning any units close in to SSRA's due to the uncertainty of wind directions.  A weakening Pacific front reaches the area late in the day for some light rain spreading eastward.  A second front brings another surge of rain Saturday and transport winds will shift to strong southerly.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height near 1000 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind E to SSE at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to N to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to N and increases to 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, November 3, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622

No burning allowed.

Zone 607, 608, 610, and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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