SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Nov 5 14:37:07 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, November 5, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SATURDAY

The massive upper-level ridge of high pressure responsible for the recent spell of dry, warm and stagnant conditions will continue to weaken and shift eastward.  The ridge axis is forecast to stretch from New Mexico to North Dakota with strengthening southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.

The second in a series of weather systems will spread considerable clouds across the region, but significant rain will likely hold off until evening.  Surface temperatures will stay well above normal.  However, cooling aloft will begin to raise afternoon mixing heights.  Increasing south to southwesterly transport winds will also act to improve afternoon ventilation conditions.

OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

A cold front will spread rain across western Oregon Saturday night through Sunday morning.  Rainfall amounts should exceed one-quarter of an inch, with close to an inch possible at higher elevations.  Surface temperatures will cool to near normal.  Cooler air aloft will provide good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions with the snow level dropping to near 3500 feet north and 4500 feet south by Sunday evening.

Showers will continue into Monday, but a flat and transitory upper-level ridge will stabilize the air mass slightly during the day.  Surface temperatures will cool to slightly below normal with snow levels near 3000 feet north and 4000 feet south.  Transport winds will remain onshore with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.

The next weather system is forecast to move mainly into northern California and southern Oregon on Tuesday.  That would keep snow levels around 3500 feet north and 4500 feet south.  Transport winds will depend on the exact track of the low-pressure center but appear as if they may turn offshore across northern zones and southwesterly over southern zones.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind increases to S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind increases to S to SW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height 1400 to 2400 ft during the morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, November 6, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://omls.oregon.gov/pipermail/smi_west/attachments/20101105/390590ca/attachment.html>