SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Sat Nov 6 14:42:31 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Saturday, November 6, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

A cold front will spread rain across western Oregon in the morning.  Rainfall amounts should exceed one-quarter of an inch, with close to an inch possible at higher elevations.  Cool and unstable air will follow the cold front onshore, providing good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions and lowering snow levels to near 3500 feet north and 4500 feet south after dark.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

Showers will continue Monday, but a flat and transitory upper-level ridge may slightly stabilize the air mass late in the day.  Daytime highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal with a couple of inches of snow possible above 3000 feet north and 4000 feet south.  Transport winds will remain onshore with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.

The next weather system will move onshore Tuesday afternoon.  Previous computer model forecasts showed this system headed mainly into southern Oregon and northern California, but the latest guidance brings it more directly into western Oregon.  That would still keep snow levels fairly low, around 3500 feet north and 4500 feet south, with more significant precipitation expected.  The more northern forecast track, of this system, will likely bring a strong southerly component to the transport winds across all zones with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.  A transitory upper-level ridge will bring some drying on Wednesday and suppress mixing heights.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to W to WNW at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.

Transport wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

MONDAY

Mixing height 2700 to 3700 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1200 to 2200 ft during the morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, November 7, 2010.

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Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610, 611, and 620

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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