SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Mon Nov 15 16:25:12 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, November 15, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.    DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

A broad flat ridge is centered off the Oregon Washington coast.  Upper level flow is from the west-northwest over the region.  Low level (transport) flow will be generally from the west or northwest except areas of north-northeast flow over the south coast range.  There is still a chance for a shower or two in the morning in the north, otherwise look for mostly cloudy skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be mostly fair.

    OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)

A deep low, both at the surface and aloft develops in the Gulf of Alaska and begins to move toward the Pacific Northwest Wednesday.  A Pacific cold front will push into Washington then drop southward, reaching NW Oregon by late morning.  The front will spread rain across the most of western Oregon by Thursday morning.  Snow levels will drop in the Cascades.  Latest models suggest a snow level of about 3500 feet in the north and 4000 feet in the south by Thursday morning.  Additional cold air may drop snow levels a little lower by Friday morning, but moisture will be limited by then so little snow is likely.  Mixing heights should allow for generally fair to good smoke dispersal conditions throughout the outlook period.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind NW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to WNW to NW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind decreases to W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4400 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind decreases to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height lowers to 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

In the north mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, November 16, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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