SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Tue Nov 16 14:13:59 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Tuesday, November 16, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    WEDNESDAY
A deep upper level low near the Queen Charlotte Islands supports a strong Pacific front on Wednesday.  This front will move into Washington then drop southward into extreme northwestern Oregon by early afternoon.   Rain, occasionally heavy, spreads south and east Wednesday afternoon and night.  Snow levels will drop to around 3000 feet Wednesday night and another thousand feet or so by Thursday morning.  Transport winds will be south-southwest and maximum mixing heights should rise enough to give generally fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY)
The upper low moves to about 150 miles west of Forks, Washington on Thursday.  The steady precipitation ends from the north but mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers will remain.  The snow level will be around 2000 feet in the north and lower to about 3000 feet by evening in the south.  Transport winds will be south to southwesterly in the north and southwesterly to west in the south.  On Friday the upper low weakens but a deep cool trough remains just offshore and a surface low continues to spin off the Washington coast. This will push areas of rain or mountain snow into western Oregon but smoke dispersion conditions will remain fair.
On Saturday atmospheric models show a new upper level low dropping into the offshore trough with the low center about 200 miles west of Waldport.  There will be limited moisture, but showers are likely and the snow level will occasionally drop to as low as 1000 feet.  Expect fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 21 - 37 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind shifts to W to NW and decreases to 16 - 30 mph.

Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 10 - 18 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind W at 23 - 41 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 13 - 25 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 4200 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 12 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3800 - 4800 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 19 - 33 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSW to SW at 18 - 30 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind shifts to W to NW and decreases to 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW and decreases to 10 - 18 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind SW at 19 - 33 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.

OUTLOOK:

THURSDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising to 2700 to 3700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, November 17, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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