SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Mon Oct 4 14:13:27 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, October 4, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    TUESDAY
Monday's trough splits...a portion moves across central Canada and the rest becomes a cut-off low over southern California.  An upper ridge develops offshore and noses into Washington while a surface thermal trough develops in the central valley of California.  This will give a northerly flow most areas and dry weather for the region.  Warmer air aloft with the ridge will suppress mixing heights.  Smoke dispersal conditions will generally be fair.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
The upper level cut-off low remains over southern California on Wednesday as a thermal trough builds northward overnight Tuesday to off the SW Oregon Coast.  It should move onshore and into SW Oregon during the day on Wednesday.  This will cause shifting winds.  Advise against planning any very large burns or burns close to SSRA's in SW Oregon on Wednesday as we are unlikely to give clearances due to the uncertainty of the wind directions throughout the day.
By Thursday afternoon the upper level low is pulling out over NE Nevada.  Upper flow over the region is beginning to go southwesterly.  Transport level winds will also be south through southwest and weather will continue dry.  Friday a front will approach from the west spreading some light rain across mainly the northwestern portion of western Oregon.  Warm air streaming northward aloft ahead of the front will suppress mixing heights but transport winds will be southerly and increase considerably.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 8 - 14 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2400 - 3400 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 16 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind N to NNE at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind decreases to N to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNE to ENE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 8 - 12 mph.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to ESE at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2900 to 3900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 5, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W and 620

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 610, and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 616 and 617

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 623

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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