SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Sun Oct 3 14:10:46 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, October 3, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    MONDAY
A full latitude upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest on Monday.  The atmosphere aloft cools considerably for higher maximum mixing heights.  By evening the axis of the trough will be over the Cascade crest and moving east.  Models show only limited moisture with this system but a few showers are likely.  Transport winds should generally be from the northwest through north.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
On Tuesday the southern portion of the upper trough cuts off as an upper level low over southern California leaving the Pacific Northwest under an upper level ridge oriented SW-NE.  Warmer air aloft will suppress maximum mixing heights a bit.  Winds will be generally northerly to north-northeasterly.  On Wednesday the upper level low over California is nearly stationary and cut off from the main westerly flow aloft which is north of the Pacific Northwest.  Again warm air aloft holds maximum mixing heights down and smoke dispersal conditions will only be marginal.  The upper low over California weakens on Thursday and moves off to the northeast.  Mixing heights recover for better ventilation.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2100 - 3100 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2400 - 3400 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 10 - 18 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY

In the north mixing height 1400 to 2400 ft during the morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2700 to 3700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 4, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 616, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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