SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, October 30, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623



SUNDAY



A Pacific cold front will bring rain to most of the region Saturday night through the pre-dawn hours Sunday, with showers tapering off during the day.  Rainfall totals will generally range from one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch, with the greatest amounts at higher elevations.   Snow levels will only drop to around 5000 feet north and 6000 feet south.  Smoke dispersion will be fair to ghould.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)


An intense storm system is forecast to develop, in the western Gulf of Alaska, by Monday.  An associated warm front will spread clouds, and possibly light rain, back over northwestern zones.  Southern zones should stay dry.  Snow levels will lift to above 8000 feet.  Brisk southerly transport winds should make for fair to good smoke dispersal conditions north, but lighter winds will result in only marginal to fair smoke dispersal conditions south.



A strong upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region Tuesday and Wednesday.  The warm-frontal rain should get displaced north of Oregon.  More stagnant conditions will advance northward across the region.  Valley fog should become more widespread with possible persistent surface-based inversions.  Transport winds will slacken and turn offshore.  Low mixing heights will generally make for marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.  Smoke from higher ridges could possibly raise above surface-based inversions into light southerly transport winds.



2.  DISPERSION



Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):



MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.



EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.



Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):



MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.



EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.



Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):



MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.



EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.



Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):



MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.



EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 29 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NE to E at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 31, 2010.

=================================================================



Coast Range



Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)



Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.



Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.





Cascades



All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.



Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.





Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.



    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml





5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:



  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.



  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.



  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.



  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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