SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Oct 29 14:38:10 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, October 29, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SATURDAY

The upper-level trough that was centered just off the California coast on Friday will weaken and slide inland across California and Nevada.  Western Oregon will start the day between storms with stable conditions and areas of valley fog.  The next weather system, in a moist southwesterly flow aloft, will spread rain back across the region, from west to east, during the afternoon and evening. Mixing will improve in the afternoon with increasing south to southwesterly transport winds creating fair smoke dispersal conditions.

OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

A Pacific cold front will bring rain to most of the region through Sunday morning.  Rainfall totals will generally range from one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch, with greater amounts possible in the northern mountains.   Snow levels will only drop to around 5000 feet north and 6000 feet south.  Smoke dispersion will be fair to good.  Showers will taper off Sunday afternoon, but a rapidly approaching warm front will spread clouds back across northwestern areas Sunday night.

The warm front will likely bring some rain northern zones on Monday, while southern zones stay dry.  Snow levels will lift to above 8000 feet.  Increasing southerly transport winds should make for fair some dispersal conditions north, but southern zones could become stagnant with more persistent valley fog.

A strong upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region, on Tuesday, pushing the warm-frontal rain north of Oregon.  Stagnant conditions will advance northward across the region.  Valley fog should become more widespread with possible persistent surface-based inversions.  Light southeasterly transport winds and low mixing heights will generally make for poor smoke dispersal conditions.  Some ridges could get above the low-level temperature inversions in the afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind increases to S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SE to S and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind increases to S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors S to SW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 30, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 611, and 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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