SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Wed Oct 6 14:30:45 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, October 6, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    THURSDAY
An upper level low that was over California Wednesday tracks northeast across Nevada and then into Idaho during the day.  The thermal trough that was offshore shifts inland for onshore flow.  Transport winds will be generally southwesterly.  There is a slight chance of a shower in southern zones otherwise expect dry weather.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be marginal for northwest zones, elsewhere fair conditions are likely.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)
The remains of a weak Pacific front brush northwest Oregon early in the day Friday.  This will be followed by a stronger system during the late afternoon and evening with widespread rain over the region. Mixing heights should improve and strong southwesterly transport winds are likely. On Saturday another Pacific Cold front moves across the region for additional rain.  High pressure noses into the region Sunday for dry weather and weakly offshore flow most areas.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1900 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 7, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615, 616, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 620

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T35S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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