SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Sun Oct 10 14:16:47 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, October 10, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    MONDAY
The remains of Sunday's active front are well to the east on Monday.  Upper level flow is nearly due west to east but there is a hint of an upper level ridge building offshore.  Because of the copious recent rains, wet ground and clearing skies will give rise to extensive valley fog.  A thermal trough building offshore will turn transport winds north to north-northeast.  This is a dry flow and should help to dissipate any fog or low cloudiness by mid-day.  Mixing heights will be high enough for smoke dispersal conditions to remain in the fair category during the afternoon.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
The ridge aloft continues to develop Tuesday.  Initially it will be offshore but it will drift eastward to over the Pacific Northwest by afternoon.  The thermal trough continues and strengthens offshore for an east to northeast transport flow most areas.  However, warm air aloft and sinking air with the upper ridge will make smoke dispersal conditions poor through much of the region.  By Wednesday the upper ridge axis will extend from central Nevada, through central Oregon and northward to Alberta.  It will continue its eastward drift.  Low level flow remains offshore but maximum mixing heights will not get very high - anticipate unfavorable burning conditions most areas for Wednesday.  On Thursday the upper ridge continues its push east.  Flow aloft becomes southwesterly and temperatures aloft begin to cool.  This will help maximum mixing heights recover to a more favorable level.  Low level flow goes onshore with a generally south or south-southwest transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1900 - 2900 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3600 - 4600 ft.

Transport wind increases to N to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2100 - 3100 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind NE to ENE at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind NE to ENE at 8 - 14 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNE to NE at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind NNE to NE at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2900 - 3900 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NE to E at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 11, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 610, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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