SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Wed Oct 13 13:57:11 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, October 13, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    THURSDAY
Upper level flow over the Pacific Northwest will be southwesterly ahead of an upper level disturbance moving towards British Columbia and northern Washington on Thursday.  A weak front reaches the north coast late in the afternoon but moisture looks to be very limited.  Light rain is possible late Thursday and Thursday evening for northern zones, otherwise expect dry weather.  Low level flow will switch to onshore and smoke dispersal conditions should be fair to good except for the southern coast range where they will remain marginal.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)
On Friday upper flow will be west-southwesterly with a weak ridge aloft.  Low level flow will switch to mostly northerly or north-easterly.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair to good all areas.  Saturday will see southwesterly flow aloft with dry weather and mild temperatures.  Transport level winds remain generally northerly to perhaps northwesterly.  Little change for Sunday with a weak upper disturbance moving through that could produce a few clouds, but expect dry weather and fair to good ventilation.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1800 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2900 - 3900 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height 1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNE to ENE at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 14, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

All zones except Zone 610 and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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