SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Sun Oct 17 14:32:32 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, October 17, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    *** Poor Smoke Ventilation Conditions Through Mid-Week ***
    MONDAY
Much of the early part of the week will dominated by a strong ridge aloft over most of the Pacific Northwest as a cut-off low meanders over southern California.  Subsidence (Sinking air motion) will warm the air aloft and limit mixing heights to very low values.  Monday will see generally poor smoke dispersal conditions in all zones except the southern Cascades.  Winds should mostly be from the north-northeast.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
The ridge-to-the-north/cut-of-low-to-the-south pattern is usually a slow-to-change pattern and little day-to-day variation is expected in weather through at least Wednesday.  Expect continued very low mixing heights and poor smoke dispersal conditions.  Tuesday will see mostly light north to northeast winds while the winds will become more westerly on Wednesday. On Thursday the low over southern California moves east as does the upper ridge to the north.  This will allow southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the eastern Pacific and the Pacific Northwest.  A Pacific cold front will ride this flow to the Oregon coast by mid afternoon and some light rain will spread to the Cascades by evening.  The subsidence aloft switches to rising air motion and maximum mixing heights should rise dramatically on Thursday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1800 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind increases to N to NE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind shifts to N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNE ENE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1900 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 18, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

Zone 602, 603, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 610, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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