SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Mon Oct 18 14:39:56 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, October 18, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
    *** Poor or Marginal Smoke Ventilation Conditions Continue ***
    TUESDAY
An upper level "blocking" pattern continues with high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low spinning over the northern Baja peninsula of Mexico.  This is a slow-to-change pattern and the ridge is shunting Pacific weather systems to the north of the region.  Subsidence (or sinking air motion) aloft is holding mixing heights down.  This, together with generally light winds, will inhibit ventilation many areas. A surface thermal trough extends from off the California coast northward to off the Oregon coast.  This will give offshore flow and allow some opportunities for burning in selected problematical locations in the Coast Range.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
The upper level pattern begins a slow shift eastward on Wednesday.   The thermal trough shifts inland and onshore low-level flow will develop.  Transport winds most areas will be from southwest through northwest.  The upper level flow goes southerly on Thursday and the region will be out of the area of strong subsidence aloft for higher afternoon mixing heights.  Low level flow will continue onshore.  On Friday, flow aloft will be from the southwest.  Models show a weakening Pacific front moving into northwest Oregon later Friday and a stronger system following Saturday.  Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will likely see widespread wetting rains most of western Oregon.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NE to ENE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NE to ENE at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to E to SE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind shifts to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind shifts to N to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to ENE to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 19, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

No burning allowed.  Some burning is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609 and 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 616 and 617

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Zone 623

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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