SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Tue Oct 19 14:22:44 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Tuesday, October 19, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    *** Poor or Marginal Smoke Ventilation Conditions Continue ***
    WEDNESDAY
A slow transition out of the sunny and dry weather pattern of the past few days begins on Wednesday - but slow is the operative word here.  An upper low continues in the vicinity of southern California and a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest is shunting weather systems well to the north.  The upper ridge will edge east during the day but Wednesday will be another day of hazy sunshine, low mixing heights and light transport winds.  Mixing heights will be around 2000 feet or less most areas except the southern Cascades.  Low level flow should switch to onshore most areas but they will remain light and somewhat variable.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY)
The upper ridge will have moved east by Thursday and an upper short wave will be approaching from the southwest.  This will increase cloudiness throughout the day and by late in the afternoon some rain from an associated weakening Pacific front will reach the south coast.  This will spread north and east during the evening hours, but the front is weak does not look to be a big wind or rain producer. Maximum mixing heights should be considerably improved, however.  By Friday the region will be under westerly flow aloft with good onshore flow at lower levels.  There will be enough moisture for areas of light rain and afternoon mixing heights will continue to increase.  On Saturday an active warm front/cold front combination will approach from the west.  Rain will be on the increase during the afternoon and rain will be heavy at times Saturday night.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1800 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

THURSDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, October 20, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

No burning allowed.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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