SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Sun Oct 24 14:42:42 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, October 24, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    MONDAY
A 180 mph jet stream remains aimed directly at Oregon on Monday.  Sunday's wet and windy storm will be well to the east of the region, but showers and possible thunderstorms will linger.  Cool air aloft will allow for high mixing heights and good smoke dispersal conditions most areas.  Snow levels will range from about 4000 feet in the north to about 4500 feet in the south.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
The upper level jet slackens and drops southward while weak high pressure aloft begins to build over the eastern Pacific on Wednesday.  Showers are still in the forecast, mainly early in the day.  Snow levels could drop as low as 3000 feet in the north.  Mixing heights will remain high most areas except the southern Cascades.   By Wednesday the upper level ridge moves over the Pacific Northwest and an upper low develops about 450 miles west of the Washington Coast.  Low level flow goes south or southeasterly.  Subsidence aloft (sinking air motion) suppresses maximum mixing heights and smoke dispersal conditions become marginal most areas.  On Thursday the center of the upper low moves to within about 250 miles of the northern Oregon Coast.  Upper flow becomes southwesterly over the region.  A Pacific weather system moves into Washington and Oregon during the day.  Rain reaches western Oregon early in the morning, but rainfall totals do not look particularly high at this point.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 19 - 33 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3900 - 4900 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 4400 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2900 - 3900 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 16 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph.  In the Cascades transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 25, 2010.

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Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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